Fantasy: Standard Leagues vs PPR Leagues, the Effect on ADP

Welcome back to “A Librarian’s Touch”. For those who are new to the column, I run a blog full of links to fantasy football resources called Fantasy Football Librarian but the Bruno Boys have given me a chance to voice my opinion a bit more here in the A Librarian’s Touch column.

Once again, this year I’ll try to shed some new light on rankings, draft strategies, and player stats as the season rolls along.

The 2009 season is almost here and draft excitement is palpable. I’m already participating in two email-style drafts, one of which is a PPR (points-per-reception) league. Not surprisingly, I’ve been thinking a lot about PPR leagues lately, especially since I feel their popularity seems to be increasing each year.

There are some obvious players that get a significant upgrade in their draft position in PPR leagues, like Reggie Bush and Wes Welker—but as we all know, it’s often the players that are drafted in middle or late rounds that surprise us and carry us to the playoffs.

So with that in mind, I compared Mock Draft Central’s ADP (average draft position) for a handful of players in both regular and PPR leagues to determine which guys I should really hone in on for those mid to late rounds. Keep in mind these are not typically your starters, but guys you might want to stock your bench or flex spots with this fall.

WR Steve Smith (NYG)—Smith’s ADP rose from 156.81 in a regular league to 138.41 when compared to a PPR league, the most substantial rise of all players that I looked at here.

Smith is expected to lead the Giants in receptions and is poised to improve upon his 2008 stats of 57 receptions and 574 yards. With just one TD last year, it’s no surprise that Smith’s value is lurking in the 150s in regular leagues; but switch to a PPR league and a player that might just bring in 70+ receptions deserves a long, hard look.

TE Brent Celek (PHI)—Celek’s ADP went from 182.06 in a regular league to almost a full round earlier (in 12-team leagues) at 173.29 in PPR leagues.

Celek had a measly 27 receptions in 2008. Consider, though, that he racked up 19 receptions and three TDs during the playoffs and add in the departure of L.J. Smith and you’ve got a very interesting TE to consider. During the NFC title game, Celek’s stats included 10 receptions and two TDs. His impressive final game of the 2008 season is surely driving his uptick in draft position for PPR leagues.

WRs Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess (MIA)—Both Miami receivers saw a noticeable jump in their ADP when drafted in PPR leagues. Camarillo’s ADP went from 187.80 to 177.44, while Bess’ rose from 189.63 to 177.62.

Interestingly, there’s very little differentiation between these two receivers at this point in the preseason since Camarillo is recovering from his knee surgery ahead of schedule—further details are sure to develop as more preseason games are played and they separate a bit more from one another.

If you’re looking for a late round WR that might provide you with a decent dose of value in PPR leagues, keep a close eye on the receiver scene in Miami.

RBs Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney (NE)—I recently just grabbed Morris at the 15.01 spot in a PPR league and I’m feeling pretty pleased with myself, to be quite honest.

His ADP in regular leagues is 159.20, but 150.86 in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, Maroney’s ADP went from 165.10 in regular leagues to 156.33 in PPR leagues; a nice little bump for both players if you ask me.

This is a bit of a mystery to me, though, since neither one is really used as a receiver very often.

Morris’ receptions peaked in 2006 at 21 (six receptions in 2007 and 17 receptions in 2008), while Maroney’s 22 receptions in 2006 beat out his four catches in 2007. To make things even more interesting, Fred Taylor’s ADP barely changed at all when comparing regular and PPR leagues (he’s being drafted far earlier in the 120ish range).

All in all, my take is that no one has a clue what will happen in the Pats backfield, meaning one of their backs will be acquired at a great value….but which one?!

A few others whose ADP dropped a bit and should be given greater consideration in PPR leagues include Eddie Royal (from 56.09 to 50.25), Lance Moore (65.20 to 62.63), Chris Henry (168.87 to 165.16), and Nate Washington (169 to 163.41).

The Bruno Boys are pleased to once again welcome guest columnist, Sara Holladay, back for her feature, A Librarian’s Touch, for the 2009 season. The woman behind the web-site, Fantasy Football Librarian, Holladay is someone all fantasy owners should be well familiar with if they want to win their league’s title as she provides some of the best fantasy football insight and resources found around the web!

For more fantasy football insight and advice, click the link below…

BRUNO BOYS FANTASY FOOTBALL

Under The Radar: Deep Fantasy League Sleepers

In the information age, a sleeper really isn’t a sleeper anymore.  Thus, in order to ensure that you wind up with a diamond instead of cubic zirconia, fantasy owners need to dig deeper than ever.  Bruno Boys Dominic presents us with some deeper sleepers for 2009 that could be worth monitoring or grabbing with a late round pick.

RB Frank Summers (PIT)—Selected in the fifth round in this year’s draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers, many believe this 230-pound running back from UNLV is destined for the fullback position.  However, he ran the 40 in an impressive 4.5 and catches the ball well.  So, it’s no wonder that visions of a young Jerome Bettis are dancing in the heads of some of the Pittsburgh coaching staff.  Even if he’s not a reincarnation of The Bus, with his size and ability, he could vulture some serious TDs.

QB Tom Brandstater (DEN)—Josh McDaniels made it clear that he likes to do things his way.  If Kyle Orton can’t become the QB he’s looking for, the new Broncos coach may decide to start grooming his pet project sooner than later.  Brandstater has good size, arm strength, and mobility.  If McDaniels believes he has the intangibles, he may try to create Denver’s own Tom Brady prototype.

RB Gartrell Johnson (SD)—This is a guy to watch, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues.  LaDanian Tomlinson is on the downturn of his career and Darren Sproles is a free agent after this year.  If Sproles plays well, he’ll be looking for big bucks next season and the Chargers may not be willing to give it to him.  Johnson is big, runs strong inside, and can catch the ball well.  Many say he is more suited for fullback, but that’s what they said about Matt Forte.  Depending on how things fall, Johnson could be the future back for this franchise.  Plus, if Sproles or Tomlinson get hurt this year, he could play a significant role immediately.

WR Juaquin Iglesias (CHI)—The 6’1″, 205-pound Iglesias had a very solid college career at Oklahoma.  And, if he can play his way onto the field for the Bears, he has the talent to be a very productive possession receiver for Jay Cutler.  In a new offense, Cutler will be looking for his next Eddie Royal; Iglesias could be that guy.

WR Mike Thomas (JAC)—At Arizona, he was the Pac-10’s all-time leader with 259 receptions.  He’s fast, runs crisp routes and has great physical play-making abilities.  The only knock on him is his size.  But with veteran Tory Holt now in Jacksonville to show him how it’s done, Thomas could grow into a very special player for the Jaguars.

WR Limas Sweed (PIT)—Not sure if Sweed can still considered a sleeper after watching him make some great catches in their first preseason game, but lots of people have forgotten him.  He entered the 2008 draft touted as one of the top young wide receivers coming into the league.  He’s a huge target in the end zone and has good speed.  And with Hines Ward playing out the end of his career, Sweed should get more looks this year and could be on the verge of breaking out.  Keeper league owners should definitely monitor this guy.

RB Danny Ware (NYG)—Ware led the NY backs last preseason with an average of 5.5 yards per carry.  Unfortunately for him, the Giants had Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw to help carry the load for Brandon Jacobs.  With Ward gone to Tampa Bay and rookie Andre Brown out for the 2009 season, Ware could see some playing time and perhaps become what Ward was for the Giants last season.  Considering Ward racked up over a 1,000 yards behind Jacobs, Ware has some serious upside.

WR Dwayne Jarrett (CAR)—Jarrett looked great in camp and it seems like the time Carolina has spent waiting for him to develop may be well spent.  Besides an injury prone Steve Smith, the Panthers don’t have an elite collection of receivers.  If Jarrett can snag the No. 3 slot, he could quickly become one of Delhomme’s favorite targets.

WR Julian Edelman (NE)—Talk about versatility.  As a QB at Kent State, Edelman led the country with 1,370 rushing yards and passed for 1,820.  He also played safety and returned a few punts.  Now, he’s making the transition to wide out for a potent New England offense.  Belichick loves versatile players and, if given the chance, Edelmen has the speed and athleticism to be a major factor.

RB Justin Forsett (SEA)—With Maurice Morris gone, the Seahawks are in need of a premier back.  Julius Jones has shown flashes of what he can do in the past, but for the most part, has failed to live up the expectations, while T.J. Duckett is not an every down back.  The only reason Forsett dropped in the 2008 draft was because of his size.  Still, if MJD and Steve Slaton can do it, there’s no reason why this talented back can’t produce.  The Seahawks didn’t draft a running back for several reasons and this second-year back could be one of them.  Look for him to get more opportunities in 2009.

RB Glen Coffee (SF)—After an impressive training camp and a solid showing in the 49ers’ first preseason game, Coffee’s stock is rising.  Make no mistake—Gore is the starter, but expect Coffee to lighten some of the load.  And, if Gore gets hurt, which is not out of the question, Coffee could be looking at a lot of carries.  If the cards fall right, he could end up outshining most of the backs that went before him in the draft.

TE Jermichael Finley (GB)—After only two years at the University of Texas, Finley ranked third in school history for receptions by a tight end.  He’s 6’5″, 247 pounds, and has great hands.  As Aaron Rodgers continues to develop into a great QB, he’s no doubt looking for the weapons to take him to the next level.  If Finley gets the opportunity to play, he’d be a huge red zone target for Rodgers.

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*THIS ARTICLE WRITTEN BY BRUNO BOY DOMINIC BROWN. FOR MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL INSIGHT AND ADVICE, CLICK THE LINK BELOW!*

BRUNO BOYS FANTASY FOOTBALL

Is Marion Barber a Fantasy Football Keeper?

In this weeks edition of Fantasy Football Q & A we will go back to the email and answer some questions regarding keepers and draft strategy as well as head into the Forums and take a look at a question regarding trades.

As always, if you have a question about a specific fantasy football player or need some draft strategy advice send an email to contact@brunoboys.net and we will give you all the support needed to make you successful. With that being said. lets get started on the August 16, 2009 edition of Bruno Boys Mailbag: Fantasy Football Q & A.

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QUESTION: I am in a 12 team draft scoring is mostly TD heavy and the QB gets six points for TD. We only draft 8 players and 1 extra player total of nine. QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE (or could be 3 WR), K and DEF. What positions would you pick first and in what order the rest of players? THANKS FOR YOUR ADVICE—(Ron, No City Given)

ANSWER: Ron, A large part of this question really has to do with what slot you will be drafting from, as the strategy tends to change depending on what pick you have in each round. So if you find out what your draft position is before it’s draft day let us know. Regardless of draft position you have to play your cards right and target the guys will be most successful in your leagues’ scoring format. If it’s a TD-only league and you get 6 points for a passing touchdown taking a guy like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the first round isn’t out of question. Since you say it’s TD-heavy I am going to assume you get some sort of points for yardage and base my answer off of this. If this is the case you need to load up on players at the core positions (RB & WR) right out of the gate. Ideally you want your first 5 picks to be running backs and wide outs and then spend your last few rounds on snagging Kickers and Defense/Special Teams. Of course, there are a few one off situations that would alter the way I would draft:

– If you can get your hands on Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers or Kurt Warner in the 4th round in a six point per passing TD league go for it. Same goes for one of Brees, Manning and Brady towards the end of the 2nd round. If neither of these scenarios pan out don’t hesitate to wait on a QB until the 6th round and target a guy like Matt Schaub who if healthy will post career numbers in 2009.

– I would only use the Tight End position if I had a chance to get Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark. If not, I would target three wide receivers. Remember Witten actually plays as a WR2 in terms of fantasy football and I expect him to double his TD total of four from a year ago. If it’s TD-Only scoring you can add Chris Cooley to your list as a late round pick. Don’t be fooled by his one TD in 2008, he should bounce back and get closer to the seven TDs per season he averaged from 2004-2007.

– Since it’s only a nine round draft and you must draft a Kicker and Defense/Special Teams I would imagine some of the owners’ are going to reach and take these guys in early rounds. Let them do this and don’t fall victim to a trend being started. This will allow you to snag better quality at the core positions while others worry about positions that are a dime a dozen. When I say take your Kicker and Defense/Special Teams in Rounds eight & nine I mean it!

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QUESTION: B Boys… I definitely appreciate all the inside scoop and suggestions, I had a good season last year with your help but I intend to win it all this year…with your help.  So here we go…First we are doing a keeper league (2players) with last year roster.  I want to hear you’re thought on last year’s roster and who you would lean to keep. My options are Marion Barber, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Kevin Smith, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall. Our leagues format is: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE. What do you guys think?—(Jorge, No City Given)

ANSWER: Jorge, Thanks for the question regarding which two players you should keep in 2009. When looking at your roster I wish you had the option to keep five players because it’s loaded with keeper league talent. Keeping two makes the decision tough but in your case you are going to have a solid 1-2 punch right out of the gate. Without knowing the rest of the rosters in your league I am going to assume that many of them will be keeping two RBs and because of this I feel your best bet would be to keep a running back and wide receiver.

At running back the guy you should keep is Marion Barber. When healthy Barber is one of the most dynamic players in all of football and with the loss of Terrell Owens he should play a bigger role in the Dallas offense this season. Yes he does have Felix Jones and Tashard Choice pushing him for touches but the Cowboys’ offense will be scoring plenty of points this year and Barber has a knack for finding the end zone (42 TDs in four seasons).

At wide receiver it’s a tough call because both Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson are two of the best five wide receivers in the NFL but the choice is Andre Johnson. A. Johnson had 37 more receptions and 244 more receiving yards than C. Johnson last year and his Houston Texans offense should be more consistent than that of the Detroit Lions in ‘09. Megatron did have four more touchdown receptions than A. Johnson last season but I expect that gap to be closer this season as a healthy Matt Schaub should propel A. Johnson into the end zone on a more consistent basis (the combo had 4 TDs over the seasons final four games in ‘08).

In my opinion the only way you keep both wide outs is if you have one of the top picks in your draft and you feel that Barber has a better shot of getting back to you then Megatron. This would be the case if the owners’ drafting ahead of you have already kept two running backs or you know they value RBs or WRs. Keep us posted as more information becomes available.

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READ THE REST OF THE Q & A HERE…

Is Marion Barber a Fantasy Football Keeper?

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Round Three Recap

Consisting of nine members of the Bruno Boys Fantasy Football Staff, along with guest columnist, Ryan Hallam, from Fighting Chance Fantasy, the Bruno Boys Mock Draft was a 14-round affair based on a standard scoring league (Pass TDs – 4 points, All Other TDs – 6 points). Outside of having to field a starting line-up occupied by 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, owners were free to compile their rosters any way in which they pleased. All commentary after each pick is provided by the Bruno Boys staff member who made the pick. The draft was conducted over email and took place from July 13, 2009 to August 3, 2009.

 

ROUND THREE RESULTS

 

3.01: Dominic Brown—Randy Moss (NE)

Having the first pick in the draft meant a change in strategy. With Moss still available, I added another top tier wide out to my team. It’s reunion time for Moss and Brady and it’s not out of the question for Moss to have another season like 2007.

 

3.02: Greg Warnock—Tom Brady (NE)

This was a tough spot to pick in. A receiver run is about to start and there isn’t much after the top guys. Passing on a receiver means I will be weak at the top of the WR position. But how could I pass on Brady in the third round? He comes back with a better supporting cast then he had two years ago and will try to make up for time lost in 2008.

 

3.03: Ryan Hallam—Roddy White (Atl)

A second elite receiver keeps me in good shape to score big points every week. Matt Ryan should mature more this year and he knows where his bread is buttered. Those who thought his 2007 year was a fluke were proven wrong last season. White is for real.

 

3.04: Jimbo Jones—Greg Jennings (GB)

Jennings has firmly established himself as an elite receiver in the NFL. With Aaron Rodgers coming into his own with a full season of experience under his belt, Jennings could be in line for a big season.

 

3.05: Cory Steger—Ronnie Brown (Mia) 

I really like what Ronnie Brown brings to the table and I think that him not handling the wildcat offense as often in 2009 will actually help his value as a runner this season

 

3.06: Kyle Smith—Steve Smith (CAR)

Despite having an offense centered around the running game, Smith remains one of the most dynamic players in the game. He’s also consistent, having accumulated at least 1,000 receiving yards and six touchdowns in each of the last four seasons.

 

3.07: Chris Ziza —Reggie Wayne (IND) 

Despite a major overhaul in the coaching staff, Wayne still has the most consistent quarterback in the game throwing to him. He might not get you the touchdown totals of Moss or Fitzgerald but he is a threat to score 10+ fantasy football points a week.

 

3.08: Marc Caviglia—Marques Colston (NO)

Colston finished 2008 with 53 fantasy football points over the seasons final three games and I feel he is the last of the elite wide receivers. Health aside, Colston is a true WR1.

 

3.09: Larry Joseph—Anquan Boldin (ARI)

In just 12 games in 2008 Boldin had 89 catches for over 1,000 receiving yards and 11 TDs. He definitely has WR1 talent and if he produces like he did last season this could be the steal of the draft.

 

3.10: Michael Whooley—Pierre Thomas (NO)

Reggie Bush is coming off of knee surgery and has proven he’s not suited to run between the tackles. Deuce McAllister was let go this off-season. Thus, it’s Thomas that will be getting the carries for the leagues highest scoring offense entering 2009—not a bad place to be. The nine TDs he had in his final six games of 2008 don’t hurt either.

Past Rounds RECAP:  1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14

Finding the Tight End Who Gets Red Zone Targets

I have been stressing that there are a plethora of tight ends this season and unless you are snagging Jason Witten, Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez in the fifth or sixth round it’s not worth reaching for one.

However, that doesn’t mean that you should not be the one to start the run on TEs in your fantasy football draft if it is at a good value. Your assumptions of 900 yards and 7-8 TDs from the top three tight ends should catapult these players to the level of WR2s. 

What do I mean by that? Witten, Gonzalez, and Gates will put up those numbers along the likes of WRs Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward, and DeSean Jackson, among others.

Now, while there is talent up and down the TE totem pole (from Gonzalez to Brent Celek), unless you grab one of the big three you should always find out which of these guys were aimed at most inside the Red Zone?

While Jason Witten posted only four TD’s, he had 120 targets throughout the season. He also was only targeted six times in the Cowboys’ Red Zone in 2008.

If that number so much as doubles in ‘09 (which still wouldn’t touch Tony Gonzalez’s 22 RZ targets, or Dallas Clark’s 21), he will be looking at an 8-10 TD campaign. This is why I keep emphasizing the point that targets are such important assets to your fantasy football squad.

 

PROJECTING MID TIER TIGHT ENDS

I’m expecting Chris Cooley to throw himself back into the pack and make you think between him and Dallas Clark as the fourth-best TE in Fantasy Football.

While Clark obviously has a better QB and should be drafted ahead of Cooley, I think Jason Campbell will need to rely on Cooley this season. I’m expecting a huge bounce-back season from the Cooley who is a fantasy football buff himself.

Lerman’s 2009 Projection: 850 yards and 7 TDs

While I was a big John Carlson supporter in 2008, I’m not sure that he is able to repeat his past season. Yes, 627 yards and 5 TD’s are not astronomical (and I do believe he has the talent to post better numbers), but I don’t think it will happen in 2009.

The share of RZ targets will probably be going to T.J. Houshmandzadeh; and Carlson figures to be left in the dust inside the 5-yard-line with Houshmandzadeh name-twin T.J. Duckett stealing valuable touches.

Lerman’s 2009 Projection: 600 yards and 3 TD’s

 

DEEP LEAGUE TIGHT ENDS

In deeper leagues (14-16 team), TE’s drop off significantly after the top 10-12. If you are one who waits until the end to snag a TE, I would target Heath Miller, Brent Celek and Ben Watson if you are looking for a TE who could exceed expectations.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE…

Finding The Tight End Who Gets Red Zone Targets

Fantasy Football Standard Scoring Mock Draft: Round 2 Recap

Consisting of nine members of the Bruno Boys Fantasy Football Staff, along with guest columnist, Ryan Hallam, from Fighting Chance Fantasy, the Bruno Boys Mock Draft was a 14-round affair based on a standard scoring league (Pass TDs – 4 points, All Other TDs – 6 points).

Outside of having to field a starting line-up occupied by 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, owners were free to compile their rosters any way in which they pleased.

All commentary after each pick is provided by the Bruno Boys staff member who made the pick. The draft was conducted over email and took place from July 13 to Aug. 3, 2009.

 

ROUND 2 RESULTS

2.01: Michael Whooley – Larry Fitzgerald (Ari) – Fitz was a lock to get you 10+ fantasy points each week in ‘08, and with nothing changing in Arizona, he should do the same in ‘09.

2.02: Larry Joseph – Steve Slaton (Hou) – I am thrilled to grab Slaton with my second round pick. He is the primary back for one of the best young offenses in the league in which he should top 300 touches for more than 1,500 total yards with near double-digit TD’s.

2.03: Marc Caviglia – Clinton Portis (Was) – Tough call since I already own Westbrook, who is injury prone, but a healthy Portis means 330+ carries and tons of opportunities for fantasy points.

2.04: Chris Ziza – Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – While he seems to be a tad injury-prone, he has made it his goal to play in all 16 games this year. Over 1,000 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns and 57 first downs last year tells me he is going to be a stud one day. Hopefully, it will be this year.

2.05: Kyle Smith – Marion Barber (Dal) – Marion is a much cooler Barbarian than Conan, mostly because his hair is way better. Oh, and he, also, scores bucketfuls of touchdowns and isn’t a bad receiver out of the backfield. How he lasted this long is beyond me, but I’m happy he did.

2.06: Cory Steger – Drew Brees (NO) – I can give you 5,069 reasons why Drew Brees is the best QB option out there heading into 2009. With Brees as my signal caller, I’m set at the position for 16 of the 17 weeks of the season.

2.07: Jimbo Jones – Kevin Smith (Det) – Kevin Smith finally got going at the end of the season last year and that should springboard him to a productive 2009 season. I also like the fact that he has virtually no handcuff or RBBC.

2.08: Ryan Hallam – Andre Johnson (Hou) – 115 catches, over 1,500 yards, nearly double-digit touchdowns, what’s not to like?  The guy is a beast and is an elite receiver.

2.09: Greg Warnock – Ryan Grant (GB) – If he plays 2009 the way he did in the second half of 2008, then I have gotten a steal at the end of the second round. A holdout last year really hurt his start to the year in 2008.

With that not being a problem in 2009, I expect Grant to total nearly 1,400 yards rushing and 8-10 touchdowns. Not bad for a RB2.

2.10: Dominic Brown – Calvin Johnson (Det) – No matter who’s throwing the ball to Megatron at the start of the season, his freakish athleticism and talent will allow for him to catch anything that’s thrown his way. He’s a lock for double-digit TDs in 2009.

SEE THE REST OF THE MOCK DRAFT HERE…

Round 2 Mock Draft

Fantasy Football Defense/Special Teams Bust Projections

In every aspect in life there is sexy and then there is not-so-sexy. Well my friends, the defensive side of the ball in fantasy football is the not-so-sexy part of the game. But that doesn’t mean you should blow it off. No way, no how!

In fact, every year such teams as the 2008 Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears come bringing either a platter full of goodness (Titans) or one that has you grabbing for the infamous bottle of “Pepto” (Bears). 

In this article we will be exploring three teams, the New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans, bringing to you reasons that we feel all three will not produce as well as players that draft them will hope.

With that in mind we bring you the 2009 Bruno Boys “Bring out the Pepto” Defense/Special Teams Rankings.

 

Ranking System: The higher the “Bring out the Pepto” ranking, the more likely a player is to bust.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Let’s start off by commending the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the season they has on the defensive side of the ball in 2008. Um, ok, there really wasn’t much to brag about, unless you want to consider that they were stingy when coming down to giving up rushing touchdowns to opposing offenses.

Their pass defense was also adequate, allowing less than 200 yards per game, 187.3 to be exact. And while they still remain a team that deserves to have a place on your roster if you play in larger leagues that carry at least two DST’s, there is plenty of cause for concern.

The Buccaneers have three offensive juggernauts in their division with the Carolina Panthers rushing attack, the New Orleans Saints passing attack and the very well balanced Atlanta Falcons.

This years Tampa Bay team will be tested on an almost weekly basis, having to face offensive minded after offensive minded team, all looking to put up plenty of points.

Plus, the Tampa Bay offense has so many question marks that odds are they will see many three-and-outs throughout the season.

This will force the defense to be on the field often and wear down an otherwise pretty solid defensive group that faces a tough schedule. Think mediocrity when drafting the Buccaneers in 2009.

PEPTO BOTTLES: 3 BOTTLES

New York Jets – The New York Jets entered 2008 with lots of hope and optimism, having gone out and spent millions to try and upgrade a defense that had struggled miserably in years past.

Outside of a few solid weeks it once again failed miserably as the Jets averaged numbers of 22.2 points per game allowed (18th) and 329.4 yards per game allowed (16th).

Add to that a horrific pass defense that allowed whopping 234.5 yards per game through the air and you have yourself a less than desirable defensive unit.

In fact the only bright side to this defense was that you knew for the most part that they could stop the run, allowing only 94.9 yards on the ground, ranking seventh in the league. 

Despite bringing in defensive minded head coach Rex Ryan, it won’t get any easier for the Jets’ defense, as gone are offensive players, quarterback Brett Favre and wide receiver Laveranues Coles.

You may ask why these players leaving will impact the defense as they are offensive players, but the answer is that they were big parts of the New York offense and without them the likelihood of their offense struggling will come into play.

Like the situation in Tampa Bay, this will leave their defense on the field more, creating opportunities for more things to go wrong.

Entering 2009 many people have the Jets’ defense on their radar as an every week defense but don’t expect that to be the case. New York will face an onslaught of top-notch offensive teams led by the New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons and worst of all, having to play the New England Patriots not once, but twice.

If you draft them make sure you do so with caution and have quick trigger to find a better match-up.

PEPTO BOTTLES: 2 BOTTLES

Tennessee Titans – Why would we, the Bruno Boys put one of the top-rated fantasy football defenses for 2008 on this list? Let us first start by saying that we expect the Tennessee Titans to have another solid season in 2009 and to be used as a No. 1 D/ST just about every week.

The reason that they make this list is because the loss of Albert Haynesworth will cause the No. 1 rated rushing defense in the NFL last year to come back to reality.

That in turn will give opposing offenses the ability to run the football on a more consistent basis and extend drives by doing so.

Another reason to be concerned about the Titans’ defense in ‘09 is the offenses they will face.

Match-ups against the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, San Diego Chargers and two meetings against the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans mean the Titans’ have their hands full from time to time.

Most weeks you should start them but on some weeks if the match-up isn’t right, don’t be afraid to bench this year’s Titans’ defense.

PEPTO BOTTLES: 1 BOTTLE

READ MORE CONTENT AT WWW.BRUNOBOYS.NET

Fantasy Football Rookie Report: Quarterbacks

This is Part 1 of a three part series that will analyze the fantasy football impact of the 2009 rookie class. Over the next three weeks, we’re going to examine the significant rookies at each skill position (QB, RB, WR/TE). To get things started let’s take a look at the freshman QUARTERBACKS.

 

Matthew Stafford – 1st Round, No.1 Overall – Detroit Lions

Scouting Report: One would think being drafted by a winless team would be a nightmare, but believe it or not, Stafford has actually found himself in a pretty decent situation.

The Lions have improved in nearly every element of the game this off-season and although they are a couple seasons away from a playoff run, they should at least return to respectability this season.

Make no mistake, Stafford will be front and center in that transformation. A three year starter in a pro system at Georgia, Stafford has a strong arm and appears confident and composed in the pocket.

Though his mobility is below average, Stafford possesses nearly every other tool to be successful in the NFL. It is unclear whether Stafford will start this season, but when that time comes, he will have some talented weapons to help him in Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson.

The Lions offensive line certainly leaves a lot to be desired, but Stafford wasn’t blessed with a great o-line in college either.

Stafford will benefit and learn from Daunte Culpepper, who will more than likely be the starter in Detroit this season. Scouts rave about Stafford’s intangibles and constant comparisons to Matt Ryan appear warranted.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: Stafford’s fantasy value in 2009 is, quite frankly, up in the air. The Lions say they are going to give Stafford the opportunity to win the starting job, but one would think they’d want some experience under center coming off a winless season.

You also don’t want your franchise quarterback running for his life all season. Then again, this is the Lions we’re talking about. If Stafford wins the starting job, however, one could argue that he was more talent to work with than Matt Ryan had in Atlanta last season.

That being said, Stafford has fantasy football value this season as a backup QB in deep fantasy leagues (14 or 16 teams) and a third QB in the average league (10 or 12 teams).

Keeper League Outlook: Of the 2009 QB class, Stafford is the most talented all around. He’s not the most physically gifted and he’s not the best leader and decision maker, but Stafford has no glaring weaknesses.

That’s why the Lions took him No.1 overall. In going to a team mired in the NFL’s cellar, Stafford’s long term prospects hinge on the ability of the Detroit Lions franchise to give him the tools and help he needs to succeed.

Playing in the ultra-competitive NFC North is far from ideal. In a few seasons, I expect Stafford to be a top 10 or top 15 QB, but I don’t think he has the potential or the situation to be a top 5 or an elite QB.

 

Mark Sanchez – 1st Round, 5th Overall – New York Jets

Scouting Report: The Jets traded up in the draft to land Sanchez after he impressed them at the NFL Combine and in private workouts. It’s quite difficult to analyze and judge a player who was a college starter for just one season.

We’ve also seen that dominance in Pete Carroll’s pro style playground in Southern California doesn’t necessarily translate to NFL success and stardom. Sanchez was incredible in his first and only season as a starter last year at USC.

Though he doesn’t possess the arm strength that Stafford and Josh Freeman have, his decision making skills and leadership abilities are clearly the best of this QB class. Sanchez also has quick feet and shows great poise in the pocket.

Sanchez will also benefit by going to a team coming off a winning season. The Jets have a solid running game and a great offensive line. The receiving corps is mediocre at best, but Jerricho Cotchery has shown flashes of big time playmaking ability.

Like Stafford, there is a possibility that Sanchez may be under center in Week 1. It will, however, be interesting to see how a QB used to playing in sunny California adjusts to playing in New York, New England, and Buffalo in November, December, and January.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: Right now, Sanchez and career backup Kellen Clemens are deadlocked in a battle to be the Week 1 starter in New York. Fortunately for Sanchez, the Jets talented offensive line will ease any concerns about their franchise QB running for his life should he win the starting job.

In my opinion, Sanchez is the most likely QB from this draft class to be under center in Week 1. That being said, I don’t think Sanchez has the upside that Stafford has simply because the Jets don’t have much of an aerial attack.

They pound the football and play tough defense. So while he will probably start, Sanchez has limited fantasy football value. He can be drafted as a third QB in most leagues.

Keeper League Outlook: Sanchez will only be as successful as the Jets allow him to be. Sanchez can throw the ball downfield, but he needs better receivers and a more aggressive offense.

I’m going against the hype because I don’t see Sanchez becoming an elite QB in the NFL. He will probably be a solid, average NFL QB. He’s not going to be a fantasy football powerhouse and will probably be a fantasy backup for his career.

 

Josh Freeman – 1st Round, 17th Overall – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Scouting Report: Like the Jets did with Sanchez, Tampa Bay liked Freeman enough to trade up a couple spots in the draft to land him. What did they get? By all accounts, a project.

Freeman is that cliché QB present in every draft. He’s the guy labeled the most physically gifted, tremendous tools, and limitless potential. Needless to say, it is quite rare that the aforementioned cliché QB lives up to expectations.

Unfortunately, I’m not certain that Freeman will buck that trend. Freeman is big and might have the strongest arm of this draft class, but he’s got a laundry list of things he needs to improve on before he becomes a solid NFL signal caller.

Though he has a graceful throwing motion, his passes come out awkwardly. His anticipation, timing, and decision making skills all need work as well.

Freeman does, however, find himself in a decent situation in Tampa Bay. He has weapons to work with in Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow. The Bucs also have a solid offensive line and a good running game.

Freeman is the ultimate boom or bust QB in this draft. He’s very raw, but with the right coaching and handling, he could be special.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: Freeman has very little fantasy football value this season and Tampa Bay would be foolish to let their franchise QB learn on the job. I don’t see Freeman starting this year or even getting much playing time at all.

Even if Freeman is the starter, you really don’t know what you’re going to get with him. I don’t think he’s worth a fantasy football spot in most leagues this year. In very deep leagues, he could be a very late round flier as a third QB.

Keeper League Outlook: This is where it gets tricky. If Freeman is able to reach his potential, you will want him on your fantasy football team. That being said, unless you’re in a dynasty league, you can probably wait until next season (when he’s more likely to start and contribute) to draft him for keeper purposes.

Pat White – 2nd Round, 44th Overall – Miami Dolphins

Scouting Report: The Dolphins surprised absolutely no one in taking White, whose skills and talents seem to be the perfect fit for Miami’s Wildcat offense. White actually threw the ball quite well at the NFL Combine, but his future might be brighter as a wide receiver.

White has great speed and possesses tremendous physical gifts, but doesn’t project to be a traditional NFL QB. As a matter of fact, White may single-handedly cause a redefining of traditional fantasy football positional requirements.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: Barring a slew of unfortunate injuries, White will be the third string QB in Miami only seeing the field in the Wildcat formation and other gimmick plays.

However, it is conceivable that White could score 5-7 TDs while on the field in those situations.

That means that White is worth a roster spot in most leagues, but it will take some time to see just how many snaps he’s going to get each game. The bigger question may be where he fits in fantasy football lineups from a position perspective.

Keeper League Outlook: Chad Pennington is the starter in Miami for the foreseeable future and Chad Henne was drafted in the second round last season to be his eventual successor.

White wasn’t drafted to play QB; he was drafted to be a unique weapon in creative formations and plays. He has absolutely no keeper or dynasty league value. 

 

Stephen McGee – 4th Round, 101st Overall – Dallas Cowboys

Scouting Report: McGee, a second day pick by the Cowboys, is big and athletic. He has a strong arm, but is quite raw. He will have the opportunity to study and learn as a third string QB behind Tony Romo and Jon Kitna. McGee is even more of a project than Josh Freeman with nowhere near the upside.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: Unless the Cowboys are served two decades of karma this season, McGee won’t take a single snap all year. 

Keeper League Outlook: Dallas has a franchise QB in Romo signed to a long term deal. With the right coaching, however, McGee could develop into a serviceable NFL QB. He’ll likely be a career backup with little or no fantasy football value.

READ MORE CONTENT AT… WWW.BRUNOBOYS.NET

::The above article was written by Matt Kamke::

2009 Fantasy Football Bust Rankings: Tight Ends

No one is ever going to tell you that the tight end is the most important position on a fantasy football team, but just like any other position, a good one can make your team and a bad one can really hurt your team.

Tight end is not a very deep position by fantasy football standards. Once you get past the obvious studs, drafting a tight end can be a bit of a crap shoot. Because there is such a thin crop of good tight ends to choose from, it tends to be a position that is very easy to overvalue.

So in order to make sure that you don’t overvalue a tight end and end up with this year’s bust which will surely cause some serious heartburn, we bring to you the 2009 Bruno Boys Tight End “Bring out the Pepto” Rankings.

Ranking System: The higher the “Bring out the Pepto” ranking, the more likely a player is to bust.

 

Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers) 

Vernon Davis may be the definition of the term “underachiever.”  He was very highly touted as a rookie coming out of the University of Maryland, but has never really lived up to expectations.

He seems to have all the physical tools to be the next great tight end. He has speed, size, and agility that usually makes for a very productive tight end, but in three NFL seasons he has never lived up to the hype.

In 2007, he put up solid tight end numbers, with 52 receptions for 509 yards with four touchdowns. This led many fantasy owners to believe that Davis was well on his way to becoming the elite fantasy football tight end many thought he would be.

Instead, he had a decline in every statistical category when he finished the 2008 season with 31 receptions for 358 yards and two touchdowns. If you drafted him to be your starting tight end you likely ended up with one serious case of indigestion, and were scrambling to find a solid starting tight end.

Davis had issues on the field and with the coaching staff, most notably new 49ers head coach Mike Singletary. Things got so bad that Singletary actually sent Davis to the showers in the middle of the game.

At this point, there is no reason to believe things will be any better for Davis in 2009. Singletary is still the head coach, quarterback Shaun Hill is still unproven and the team spent their first round pick in the NFL draft on prolific wide receiver Michael Crabtree (still hasn’t signed).

Davis may see an increase in production from 2008, but is still likely no more than a back-up fantasy tight end. For these reasons, Vernon Davis earns the award of being the Bruno Boys top tight end busts in 2009.

PEPTO BOTTLES: 4 BOTTLES

 

Anthony Fasano (Miami Dolphins)

Anthony Fasano started the 2008 season as a virtual unknown, but after a hot start during the first few weeks of the season, he had one of the top waiver wire pick-ups in fantasy football. Unfortunately for fantasy football owners, he cooled off considerably after his hot start and was extremely mediocre in the months of October and November.

Fasano finished the 2008 season with 34 receptions for 454 yards with seven touchdowns, which are decent numbers for a tight end. These numbers are very misleading and may lead to Fasano being overvalued in 2009 fantasy drafts.

He scored two touchdowns in the first three weeks of the season and then had four touchdowns in the last four weeks of the season, meaning that he was held to one touchdown over a 10 week span in the heart of the fantasy football schedule.

This is not the type of consistency you want from your starting tight end.

There a lot of question marks with the Miami Dolphins heading into 2009. Can Chad Pennington repeat his comeback season of 2008? Can running back Ronnie Brown stay healthy for an entire season? Can Ricky Williams stay drug free? Will the wildcat formation continue to work?

These questions along with the inconsistency issues that plagued Fasano in 2008 earn him THREE BOTTLES OF PEPTO.

PEPTO BOTTLES: 3 BOTTLES

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READ THE REST OF THE TIGHT END BUST ARTICLE HERE…

2009 Fantasy Football Bust Rankings: Tight Ends

Average Draft Position Watch: Rising Running Backs

With the NFL season quickly approaching, just about every eager fantasy football owner is starving for knowledge and I am here to oblige. Leading up to Week One of the regular season, I will be tackling the weekly running back risers and fallers for ADP (Average Draft Position). I will be using ESPN live draft ADP feature to fill everyone in on which running backs are increasing and decreasing in value as the preseason progresses.

To get things started we will take a look at the Top Five risers for the week. The list includes Justin Fargas (+10.2), Jamaal Charles (+9.4), LeSean McCoy (+4.6), Pierre Thomas (+2.3) and LenDale White (+2.2). I will be breaking down these players and giving the reasoning of why I believe or don’t believe that the movement in ADP is justifiable.

1. Justin Fargas (Oakland Raiders) – Entering his seventh season in the NFL, all spent with the Oakland Raiders, Justin Fargas (+10.2 ADP) enters the year sitting behind Darren McFadden and possibly even Michael Bush on the depth charts.

Fargas’ 10-slot jump to the 159.8 draft position this past week is kind of head scratching as not only is he dealing with a hip issue, but there are only so many carries to go around.

Unless fantasy players across the world expect Fargas’ blocking skills to earn him extra playing time during the year, there really is no justifying the jump. Fargas remains a running back that should only be taken as a flyer with a late round pick in deeper leagues.

2. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs) – Ironically, Jamaal Charles (+ 9.4 ADP) is being drafted behind Justin Fargas on an average in ESPN leagues, going 160.6 overall this past week. While Fargas’ rise doesn’t make much sense, I really believe that Charles is going to have some solid fantasy value in 2009 and holds a lot of the word “potential” in him.

Entering the year he will be playing behind Larry Johnson, with the role of being the Kansas City Chiefs third down back. If Johnson struggles at all this year, look for Charles to be worked more into the offense. This is a running back definitely worth gambling on as your fourth or fifth back on your team.

3. LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) – LeSean McCoy (+4.6 ADP) is a rookie that I am really excited about this year. Even with Brian Westbrook sitting there ahead of him on the depth charts, McCoy is expected to see a fair share of the offense this year.

He has been going roughly at the 113.4 draft position in ESPN leagues, a tad too low if you ask me. If Westbrook is healthy than McCoy is no more than a solid RB3/RB4 on your roster, but if Westbrook is out McCoy’s value jumps.

If you burn an early draft pick on Westbrook consider McCoy a must-have handcuff.  I am not a strong believer in handcuffing, but this is one instance in which I sincerely believe that it should be done.

4. Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – First thought to be a running back who will share time with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas (+2.3 ADP) has been nothing less than awesome during training camp, where as Bush still has been experiencing knee issues. If Thomas continues to impress, his season of yester-year may not turn into a fabrication of a career year after all.

He has been getting drafted as the 40th player off the board in ESPN leagues. Look for that to continue to rise as he continues to excel in camp.

5. LenDale White (Tennessee Titans) – Heading into 2009 LenDale White (+2.2 ADP) looks to once again be the Tennessee Titans goal-line back. After punching in 15 touchdowns in 2008 it’s hard to find ways for White to improve his game for this year. But he did.

White decided to give up partying and focus more on his football physique. That is good news as it will lessen the chance of White returning to a running back with very little value. His mild jump in his overall draft position to No. 60 overall during the past week is proof that fantasy football players are believing that a repeat year could be in the works.

I am starting to think along those lines as well.
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READ MORE CONTENT AT WWW.BRUNOBOYS.NET

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