Frank Gore Injury Update: High Ankle Sprain, Could Miss Two Weeks

I am neither a 49ers fan, nor particularly a fan of the University of Miami. But I have always been a big Frank Gore fan.

He has a great backstory, which I’ll get to a minute, and is the kind of athlete that you root for regardless of whether he’s on your team or not.

But right now, the big news about Frank Gore is that he is injured…again…and his fantasy owners will have to make alternate plans for the next couple of weeks.

 

Gore entered yesterday’s game against the Vikings already nursing a tender ankle. He attempted to play on it, ran the ball once, and had to limp off the field.

He would not return.

The latest injury update on Frank Gore is that he is suffering from a high ankle sprain and will most likely miss the next two weeks.

San Francisco has St. Louis and Atlanta on the schedule in Weeks 4 and 5. The 49ers have a bye in Week 6, at which point the 49ers hope to have their backfield stalwart back in the lineup.

In the meantime, Gore owners should gobble up Glen Coffee. The rookie out of Alabama made quite a splash in the pre-season and was an early darling of many fantasy prognosticators.

Don’t be turned off by his 25 carry, 54 yard performance this past Sunday in relief of Gore. San Fran was facing Minnesota’s vaunted run defense, against which even the best running backs look pedestrian.

Coffee should find the going much easier against St. Louis and Atlanta, the latter of which gave up over 100 yards and a score to the ancient Fred Taylor this past weekend.

But back to Gore. 

Many people do not realize that had he not suffered two terrible knee injuries in college, America might never have been introduced to Willis McGahee. Gore was ahead of McGahee on the depth chart at The U, but never really got a chance to prove his worth at Miami.

In his senior season at Coral Gables High in Miami, where they play some damn good high school football, Gore rushed for—get this—2,900 yards and 11 TDs during his senior season. He was slated to start for the ‘Canes before knee injuries ruined his college career.

This article by Manny Navarro does a great job of telling Gore’s story.  Here is an excerpt:

I couldn’t be happier for him. The truth is, aside from football, Gore has never really had much going for him. At Gables, he was classified with a learning disorder.

With his mother sick and the rest of his family dirt poor, he was basically their only hope of having a better life. When he went down with those two major knee injuries, I thought he was headed toward a sad story.

I didn’t think he’d be the same running back he was once appeared he was headed toward becoming at Gables. But now, he is the Frank of old again. And not only is his mother benefiting, so are his two children.

Let’s hope Gore’s ankle injury does not linger and that he’s back leading the 49ers’ offense soon.  There is no team in the NFL, other than my Browns (ugh) and Dolphins (ugh), that I am rooting for more than the 49ers this season.

From scrappy QB Shaun Hill to inspirational coach Mike Singletary to Gore, the 49ers have a lot of guys to root for. Their 2-1 start has been one of the best stories of this young 2009 season.

I’ll update this post when I hear any further injury updates on Gore.

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* – Frank Gore photo credit: Michael Maloney of the San Francisco Chronicle via SFGate.info

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Browns Limp Into Baltimore as Two-TD Underdog: Looking to Avoid Deadly Attack

First off, my apologies for the delay in posting this week’s Browns preview. I could blame it on a lack of time from the recent site redesign, or the fact that I’ve been a little under weather this week, or that there were other more interesting stories to write about; but, the real reason why I’m not writing and posting this until just a few hours before kickoff is that I’ve specifically wanted to avoid writing about today’s Browns-Ravens game.

Because, regardless, I am going to the Browns Backers with my parents to watch the game, and I have pretty much no hope whatsoever that the Browns have even a prayer to win today.

That lack of hope was made even more severe yesterday when it was announced that Jamal Lewis and Phil Dawson will not play in today’s game.

Quickly, here is the pertinent viewing info for this afternoon from the Week 3 TV schedule and point spreads guide:

 

 

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)

 

• Browns-Ravens Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
• Browns-Ravens Time: 1:00 ET
• Browns-Ravens TV Network: CBS
• Browns-Ravens Announcers: GUS JOHNSON and Steve Tasker (Yes!!! A reason to watch the Browns! Gus Johnson!)
• Browns-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -13.5
• Browns-Ravens Over-Under: 38.5

Here is the best way that I can illustrate my pessimism heading into today’s game: while surfing a few news headlines this morning on my iPhone, I stumbled across the following at FoxNews: “Horrified Zoo Goers Witness Deadly Bear Attack.” My immediate first thought—and I am not making this up—was how appropriate a similar headline will probably be later this afternoon: “Horrified Browns Backers Witness Deadly Raven Attack.”

Such is life in 2009 (as it was in 2008…and 2006…and 2005…and…) as a Browns fan.

(Side note: and remember, at least one Baltimore Raven, pictured left, has previously been involved in a deadly attack…)

Is a Browns win possible? Oh..sure it is, I suppose.

This is the NFL after all, where the phrase “any given Sunday” is a truly relevant cliche. These Ravens aren’t the 2007 Patriots or the 1972 Dolphins, and these Browns very likely (at least we hope) are not the 2008 Lions.

But after watching eight quarters of Browns football so far this season, and seeing the highlights of Baltimore’s well-oiled offensive machine, any Browns fan who truly believes Cleveland will win today is a quintessential example of a person with faith. Believing in the Browns’ chances to win at Baltimore truly would require believing without seeing.

So, here is the Browns-Ravens prediction that I’ve dreaded giving all week long: Baltimore will win, and they’ll win big, and I think they’ll cover.

Forgive me, but I just can’t shake the mental images of our putrid offense from the last two weeks. With Baltimore’s offense looking so strong, I think we have to hold them to 17 points or less to have even a prayer, and I just don’t see that happening.

However, there is hope.

What, there is?

Yes, and there is hope based soundly in historical precedent not only for this week but for the rest of the season.

This may admittedly be a wild stretch, but here goes:

Last year, the Miami Dolphins started of the season 0-2. In week 3 the Dolphins limped into Foxboro to face the New England Patriots and were a prohibitive underdog and expected to get pummeled. In that game, however, the Dolphins shocked the Patriots and the world by racking up 461 yards of Wildcat-powered offense en route to a 38-13 victory.

The Dolphins would thereafter proceed to win 10 of their next 14 games and make the playoffs…and it all started with a road win when no one gave them a chance.

Let’s see: 

• Team left for dead after only two weeks? Check.
• Tough Week Three matchup against divisional opponent on the road? Check.
• No one, not even the most optimistic of fans, giving team a chance to win? Check.
• Putrid offense looking for a spark? Check.

That last one is the key to today’s game.

The Dolphins introduced the Wildcat offense in that Week Three matchup, which totally caught the Patriots by surprise and proved to have staying power as a viable solution for moving the ball. The Dolphins, and many other NFL teams, are still running the Wildcat this season.

What do the Browns have in their arsenal that could have similar effect today?

I’m not exactly sure. 

Perhaps we will see Josh Cribbs line up more behind center in the Wildcat today?

Honestly, I’m not sure why this hasn’t happened more already. Cribbs can run and throw, and he has not made a smooth transition to wideout. Maybe the Browns should let Mike Furrey, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Brian Robiskie work opposite Braylon Edwards and find easier ways—a la the Wildcat—to get Cribbs the ball.

Hmm…or perhaps we will see the long-awaited coming out party of Jerome Harrison?

The Browns’ backup running back—he of the 5.7 yard per carry average for his career—will get an extended look today with Jamal Lewis out. Exciting but unproven rookie James Davis should also get a look. Maybe the fresh legs of these two runners can spark the Browns?

Or maybe, just maybe, Brady Quinn will quiet his naysayers can play like a first round pick today?

If I had to rank the above three scenarios in order of their probability of occurring:

1. Harrison, Davis spark Browns’ ground attack
2. Josh Cribbs sparks Browns’ offense with dual-threat Wildcat
3. God takes a break from his busy schedule to divinely intervene on the behalf of long-suffering Browns fans to orchestrate a stunning upset.
4. Brady Quinn plays like a first round pick and leads the Browns to victory.

I guess we’ll see. But barring some sort of crazy, flukish afternoon, one of those things will have to happen for the Browns’ offense to get in sync. The defense can play as well as it is capable of playing and it won’t mean squat if Cleveland can’t challenge Baltimore on the other side of the ball.

I sure hope it happens, and I sure hope that my prediction proves wrong. I shouldn’t already be bored with—and afraid of—these weekly Browns previews after only two weeks.

So let’s defy the odds and make it a game today boys. 

At the very least, please don’t force us all to shuffle out of the bar today feeling like we just witnessed a deadly bear attack.

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* – Ray Lewis photo credit: Stephanie Krell via Flickr

* – Derek Anderson getting sacked photo credit: Nick Wass / AP Photo via Dawgs by Nature

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Desean Jackson, Brian Westbrook Injury Update and Week Three Status

From a fantasy perspective, no team is more mind-achingly, frustratingly intriguing than the Philadelphia Eagles heading into Week Three. Not only do the Eagles have what looks to be a pretty sweet matchup against the hapless Kansas City Chiefs, but Philadelphia’s most recent injury report would make for half of a pretty good fantasy starting lineup:

Quarterback: Donovan McNabb—doubtful with rib injury;

Running back: Brian Westbrook—questionable with ankle injury;

Wide receiver: Desean Jackson—questionable with groin injury;

Wide receiver: Kevin Curtis—doubtful with knee injury.

Most McNabb owners are probably not counting on him playing this weekend. Certainly they should not be. McNabb is reportedly progressing well, but there is no reason for the Eagles to play him this week and risk further injury when they have a bye week coming up next week.

As for Desean Jackson, he participated fully in Friday’s practice and should be good to go on Sunday. With Kevin Curtis likely out, and rookie Jeremy Maclin lining up opposite Jackson, I expect Desean and Brent Celek to get most of the targets from probable starting Quarterback Kevin Kolb. The reports were pretty solid about Jackson, so he should be ready to contribute normally.

With all that said, the most compelling and influential injury issue in Philadelphia for Week Three is Brian Westbrook.

Westbrook has not practiced all week while dealing with swelling in his injured ankle. It’s the same ankle that Westbrook had surgery on this past offseason, and this fact has caused some extra concern. However, as any Westbrook fantasy owner knows, he often plays on Sunday despite not practicing throughout the week.

I’ve done you the service of reading pretty much every injury update and fantasy article written about Westbrook over the 48 hours. Here is the consensus: most tentatively expect him to play, but do expect LeSean McCoy to get increased touches.

So here is my advice:

If you own Westbrook: Pencil him into your starting lineup, but be ready to make a last-minute switch once the list of inactive players comes out late tomorrow morning.

If you own LeSean McCoy: Play him at your flex position if you have no obvious choices, and also track the inactives list. If Westbrook is a no-go, McCoy immediately becomes a must-start RB No. 2 at a minimum.

I’ll update this post as soon as I find out anything more about this situation. I own Desean Jackson and LeSean McCoy in numerous leagues, so I will be playing close attention to the Eagles tomorrow morning.

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Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens: Jamal Lewis and Phil Dawson Are Both Out

With the Cleveland Browns reeling at 0-2, and entering tomorrow’s clash with Baltimore as prohibitive underdogs (13.5 points), Browns’ fans have been expecting a long and perhaps demoralizing game on Sunday afternoon.

Now that two of the franchise’s most productive players this decade are not playing, the Browns chances of pulling off a shocking road upset look even more bleak.

Running back Jamal Lewis has been dealing with an injured hamstring and did not practice today or yesterday. Though the Browns and (and Lewis fantasy owners) had hoped that Jamal would be able to give it a go, the latest injury update on Lewis, via PFT, is that he is not playing tomorrow.

In fact, he did not even make the trip to Baltimore. Jerome Harrison is expected to pick up the bulk of the work in Lewis’ absence, with help from rookie James Davis.

Another Browns veteran who is not accompanying the team to Baltimore is kicker Phil Dawson, who is dealing with a strained calf according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter (via PFT). Dawson will be replaced tomorrow by former Dallas Cowboy Billy Cundiff.

Of course, if the game goes as most people think it will (including me), there won’t be much for Cundiff to do. I obviously hope that I and everyone is wrong, but it’s hard to have hope after the first two weeks of the season.

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Browns’ Defense (Literally) Tries to Show Offense How to Have More “Punch”

If you have not heard, there is reason to believe that the Cleveland Browns might not be so “punchless” after all!

Of course, when the punches are coming from rookie defensive backs and directed at his own teammates, it’s probably not the kind of “punch” Eric Mangini and the embattled Browns are looking for.

Nonetheless, that’s what happened in the Browns’ locker room yesterday, as rookie DB Coye Francies did not take too kindly to a little rookie hazing.

Via the Plain-Dealer account of the fight between Coye Francies and his Browns teammates:

Browns rookie cornerback Coye Francies, the victim of a rookie prank, lost his temper in the locker room Friday, heaving a bucket of ice water at teammates and taking a swing at safety Abe Elam. 

…

Francies first threw half the bucket toward Brandon McDonald, splashing him and scattering ice over the floor. Then, he tossed some at safety Mike Adams. “Welcome to the Browns locker room,” receiver Braylon Edwards shouted. 

 

Shaun Rogers, David Bowens, and D’Qwell Jackson reportedly grabbed Francies and calmed him down. Eric Mangini was asked about the fight later and in his always-oh-so-serious manner discussed his thought process in coming to the conclusion that it was no big deal.

All Mangini needed to do was listen to Francies, who said afterwards that he was “just playing around.”  I’m sure it was a little more than “just playing around” but whatever. For a team that has shown absolutely zero punch on the field — especially offensively — it’s almost depressing to hear about Browns’ players wasting such energy on their own teammates.

Let’s see…what’s the bright side here?…come on, I can find something…

Hmm…well maybe this galvanizes the Browns, brings the team closer together, and leads them to a victory Sunday afternoon in Baltimore!

…

…

…

Yeah, yeah, I know.  I’m laughing too.

Have a great Saturday everyone.  Be back later.

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* Coye Francies photo credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images via The OBR

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Bears-Seahawks Preview: Analysis and Prediction

The Bears travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks this weekend, in what should be a pretty good football showdown in the rainiest city in the USA.

Here is your quick-hit viewer’s guide and Jerod’s pick from this week’s NFL TV schedule and point spread post:

Chicago Bears (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

• Bears-Seahawks Date: Sunday, September 27th
• Bears-Seahawks Time: 4:05 ET
• Bears-Seahawks TV Network: Dick Stockton and Charles Davis
• Bears-Seahawks Announcers: FOX
• Bears-Seahawks Point Spread: Bears -2.5
• Bears-Seahawks Over-Under: 37
• Bears-Seahawks Pick by Jerod: Poor Matt Hasselbeck. He just can’t seem to stay healthy anymore. If he were healthy and playing, they’d be a good bet to win and certainly to cover 2.5 points. However, I think last week’s win was a big confidence builder for Jay Cutler and the Bears. And after seeing what Frank Gore did to Seattle last week, Matt Forte will no doubt be ready for his 2009 breakout game. I think he gets it, and I think the will Bears win by a TD. Bears-Seahawks free spread pick: Bears -2.5 (for the record, I’m already re-thinking this one…Seattle is tough to beat at home. But the absence of Hasselbeck seals it. Bears, minus the points, final answer.)

Bears-Seahawks Analysis

The Bears are coming off of a spectactular and uplifting win against the defending Super Bowl champions; the Pittsburgh Steelers. The No. 1 question for the Bears right now is when will Matt Forte put up some decent numbers? So far Forte has been shut down, and is only averaging 2.2 yds per carry. There still isn’t any need to worry though because the two teams he played have very good run defenses.

The Seahawks are ranked 26th in the league in run defense. Forte is set up to run over 100 yards this Sunday. A good running game means less pressure on the QB, which will be greatly needed because Jay Cutler has his work cut out for him. The Seahawks pass defense is ranked 2nd in the league. Passing against this defense will be tough, but Forte can help significantly if he can find the holes the OL setup.

Bears fans liked seeing Cutler bounce back in Week two after a horrid Week one, but will this just be another Good-Cutler, Bad-Cutler deal, just like what happened with Rex Grossman? Chicago fans sure hope not.

The new player to look for is rookie WR Johnny Knox. He has created a stir around the NFL for showing great speed and catching ability. The Bears could have found a sleeper in this kid. Keep an eye out for him.

The Seahawks might have lost Hasselback again due to a rib injury. If Hasselback doesn’t play, Seneca Wallace will start for Seattle. Wallace started some games last year, and isn’t a bad QB. Losing Hasselback however, is a huge loss for a team that heavily relies on their QB. Seattle might have to find a way to win without Hasselback, a task that might prove futile.

The Seahawks best bet is their running game. While it’s not great, it has been consistent, averaging 116.5 yds per game. If the running game doesn’t get going it puts more pressure on the passing game, a section that already is weakened.

Bears-Seahawks prediction: the loss of Hasselback is just do much for the Seahawks to recover from. Bears win 21-14.

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Eric Mangini Overseeing an Abysmal Mess in Cleveland

Okay, I’m finally done with my so-called day job deadline so I can now truly reflect on the abysmal mess that head coach Eric Mangini has created with the once-proud Cleveland Browns.

Ironically, the imposters, the mismatched retreads, and rookies we call the New Browns are going to Baltimore to play The Real Browns, now called the Ravens.

But being from Cleveland, I’ll watch the game with my eyes partially closed, amidst the usual f-bombs, moans, screeches, and objects thrown.

To Jrod: Yeah, the first two weeks have flown by fast. Unfortunately, the season, after two games, seems on a runaway elevator catapulting down to the basement.

First and foremost: Mangini is a madman, a paranoid schizophrenic who talked Randy Lerner into this gig.

It is like having your hometown ruled by a crazed dictator who charges players $1,700 for a failing to pay for a bottle of water. He talks a lot and says nothing, still refuses to discuss injuries, and totally f-ed up Brady Quinn by never naming him as starting QB (spies are out there, listening, ready to steal our playbooks).

Moreover, he forced Quinn to change his stance and methodically check off, resulting in a QB who is caught holding the ball too long and getting sacked nine times so far.

Not only does Mangini demand the team march in lockstep, he has the players memorizing impossible schemes that won’t work because he allowed choice draft picks to be drafted so he could get twice as many has-beens, especially from his old team the New York Jets, who are all in hog heaven under the affable Rex Ryan.

I would name the ex-Jets has-beens who now wear Browns uniforms, but I just can’t remember their names.

Here is the reverse logic of Mangini’s Day at the Draft last April: I will let Mark Sanchez go, and pass on Ray Maualuga and let him haunt us from Cincy. I believe we also had a shot at getting Clay Mathews Jr. (his old man probably told the kid he was lucky not to be in Cleveland).

First draft pick: Alex Mack, who sometimes has a hard time at center getting the football into Quinn’s hands instead of over his head or rolling on the turf. In the second round, rookie receivers Masaaquoi and Robiskie were chosen. But now Mangini doesn’t want to play them for some reason. Maybe they talked back to Coach, or worse, forgot to pay for a Pepsi—who knows?

About the only thing Brady Quinn has going for him is that Braylon Edwards is catching the ball again. (Although he will not fight for the ball, wrench it out of a defender’s arms, etc.)

Brian Dabold, the brand spanking new offensive coordinator has Brady Quinn posing like Tom Brady, calling signals as he lifts his foot, jerking his head right and left—which looks good until the snap goes awry.

As Quinn’s credence as a quarterback falls lower each day (at least on Cleveland sports radio), Quinn himself has to do something about it: audiblize, do play action, run, something. Forget the meetingspeak crap and just try to win the game. (You’re gonna get yelled at on the sidelines anyway, why not make it count?)

Bill Curry, former center for Johnny Unitas said that if a teammate ran the wrong route, he would order him out of the huddle and call for a replacement.

Football is different these days. It is rare for a QB to call his own plays. Quinn has got to step up and show he does have the cojones to risk an interception, to run out of the pocket, to dive for a first down, to change a play in the huddle.

Maybe the Browns won’t win the game Sunday (gee, you think?), but Quinn could orchestrate a few more first downs to give the defense time to catch its collective breath before facing Flacco and Co.

With so many things going against them—along with a continuous heap of bad luck—it is doubtful the Browns will contend any time soon. A 21-point underdog this Sunday? That seems about right.

After two games and one offensive touchdown so far this season, the year 2007—dubbed by local radio personalities as “The Season of Dreams”—is fading into obscurity. It seems now, that the fabled 10-6 season was not a turn in the right direction. It was just a blip on 10 years of bad teams.

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* – Eric Mangini photo credit: The Cleveland Leader

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Browns-Broncos Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

All things considered, it was perhaps the most disappointing game of Browns’ 2008 season.

After opening the season 0-3, Cleveland battled back to win three out of its next five games, ultimately sitting at 3-5 as they prepared to take on the Denver Broncos at home on Thursday Night Football. 

Leading 23-10 early in the third quarter, it appeared that the Browns would improve their record to 4-5 and salvage some semblance of an opportunity to make a late season charge at the playoffs.

The Broncos were only able to muster a field goal in the third quarter, meaning the Browns were nursing a 23-13 lead as the fourth quarter began. I was at the Browns Backers that night, as I usually am during Browns games, and for the first time since the opening week of the season, I felt genuine optimism.

We win this game, we’re right back in this thing, was the thought permeating the room.

We know how that turned out.

Over the next 15 minutes of play at Cleveland Browns Stadium, the door was shut on the Browns’ 2008 season for good. You all remember what happened: Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald forgot how to play cornerback, and another chapter in the over-hyped legend of Jay Cutler was written.

Cutler threw 3 TD passes in the fourth quarter, with the 93-yarder to Eddie Royal that started the barrage seeming to break the Browns’ back, even though Cleveland still led 23-20. Cutler would add subsequent TD passes to Daniel Graham and Brandon Marshall on his way to 447 passing yards on the evening.

Despite a solid game from starter Brady Quinn, and the best rushing performance of the year for Cleveland (160 yards, 5.5 yard average), the Browns ended the night a demoralizing 3-6. They would win the next week at Buffalo before proceeding to drop their last six games of the season.

Would 2008 have turned out any differently had the Browns been 5-5 instead of 4-6 after Week 10? Who knows. Probably not. But I know one thing: the sting of last season would have been a little less severe had that fourth quarter embarrassment against the Broncos not occurred.

Sunday afternoon, the Browns will have their opportunity for vengeance.

Here are the particulars:

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

• Browns-Broncos Date: Sunday, Sept. 20
• Browns-Broncos Time: 4:15
• Browns-Broncos TV Network: CBS
• Browns-Broncos Announcers: Bill Macatee and Steve Beuerlein
• Browns-Broncos Point Spread: Broncos -3.5
• Browns-Broncos Over-Under: 37.5
• StubHub: Browns-Broncos tickets as low as $42!

Last week, my preview and analysis of the Vikings-Browns game unfortunately proved prophetic.

The Vikings are quite possibly the worst matchup in the NFL for the Browns, and it showed on Sunday. Cleveland played very well in the first half, but the Browns’ inability to run and stop the run doomed them to a disappointing second half.

This week, my Browns preview will not be nearly as pessimistic. Unlike last week, when I listed out the three reasons the Browns would lose and then provided three things that had to happen for them to even have a chance, this week will be much easier.

I’m giving you three reasons why the Browns will win on Sunday. Because they will. Chime in with your prediction, then read mine.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post’s poll.

Browns-Broncos Analysis

Three reasons the Browns will win on Sunday

1 – The Browns’ biggest weakness, run defense, is marginalized by Denver’s unproven rushing attack

The Broncos have long been known as a running team, ever since Terrell Davis began the legendary run of 1,000-yard backs that Mike Shanahan seemed to pluck off of the trees outside the Broncos’ practice facility. There was Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis and Mike Bell, and on and on and on.

Their rushing prowess also led to consistent success and many playoff berths for the Broncos, with the franchise winning at least eight games every year between 2000-2006 after winning 37 games in three years between 1996-1998.

But Denver has not had a 1000-yard back since Tatum Bell ran for 1,025 yards in 2006. Not coincidentally, they haven’t had a winning season since 2006. Also not coincidentally, 2007 is the season Jay Cutler took over as their quarterback.

The end result is that by last season, the Broncos were 12th in the league in rushing at 116.4 yards per game. That is actually impressive when you consider that they did not have a back eclipse 343 yards, with Shanahan employing a revolving door of Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, and others.

(Note: the picture above is rumored to have been taken after Shanahan was shown the Broncos’ final 2008 rushing statistics. I cannot confirm this, however.)

The Broncos’ transition from a running team to a passing team was essentially complete at the end of last year, with the results obvious: a 15-17 record during the 2007 and 2008 seasons with no playoff berths.

In 2009, Jay Cutler has been replaced by Kyle Orton and the Broncos are counting on a rookie first round draft pick, Knowshon Moreno, and a career backup, Correll Buckhalter, to carry the load on offense. 

One would think that the Broncos’ Week One matchup might have offered a chance for the running game to get going early in the season. The Cincinnati Bengals were 21st in the league in rushing defense last year. However, the Broncos’ offense struggled all day, netting a total of 302 yards with Buckhalter and Moreno combining for just 65 yards on 16 carries.

Certainly, I and everyone else expect them to have more success running the ball against the Browns, a team that few have been worse than over the past few years at stopping the run. But the Broncos will not be able to run roughshod all over Cleveland like the Vikings did.

Minnesota blew the Week One game open in the second half because Adrian Peterson is an absolute beast. In the first half, Cleveland actually played very well and contained the Vikings on the ground. On Sunday, I expect the Browns defensive performance to be much closer to the first half of Week One as opposed to the second half.

I’m sure that Denver will get 110-120 yards on the ground. The Browns are not going to miraculously become a good defense against the run overnight. But I do believe they will be able to contain the Broncos enough, like Cincinnati did, to make Kyle Orton beat them.

I’ll take my chances with Kyle Orton, which me leads to reason No. 2 why the Browns will win on Sunday…

 

2 – I’ll take my chances with Kyle Orton

The Broncos beat the Browns last year because Jay Cutler, despite his uneven record as a starting quarterback, is supremely talented and capable of getting into a zone that few QBs in the NFL can match. Cutler also had a great rapport with WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, and it was certainly on display last season.

That said, Cutler is douchy, inconsistent, and has poor leadership skills, which in my mind makes him a hugh risk as a franchise QB. Obviously though, none of that mattered in the fourth quarter last year.

Kyle Orton, on the other hand, is not the type of quarterback who can beat you on his own.

In Week One, Orton finished the game with solid numbers: 17-28, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs. But take away his fluky touchdown pass to Brandon Stokley that won the game, and this is what his numbers would have been: 16-27, 146 yards, 0 TDs.

Against Cincinnati’s defense.

I realize the irony of a Browns fan criticizing another team’s offense, but the Broncos offensive attack just does not scare me. If the Browns can contain the Broncos’ running game, which I believe that we will, it will put the onus on Kyle Orton to win the game.

Despite the fluky madness that ended last week’s game—for which Orton gets no credit, sorry—I don’t believe Kyle Orton will be able to get the job done.

The truth is that I see the Broncos and Browns as very similar teams. Both teams’ running games have potential, but have shown nothing yet. Both teams have pedestrian QBs that are incapable of winning games on their own. Both teams also have defenses with some obvious strengths, but also some very obvious holes and debilitating weaknesses.

So, considering that the Broncos are playing at home, what leads me to believe that the Browns will win on Sunday?

 

3 – Sunday’s game will be a close one in which special teams make a huge difference; the Browns have the decided advantage in this area.

No discussion of the Browns’ special teams can begin anywhere but with the best special teams player in the NFL: Joshua Cribbs.

In case anyone needed a reminder of Cribbs’ greatness, he took a punt 67 yards to the house last Sunday against the Vikings. For his career, Cribbs averages 11.1 yards per punt return and has score twice. On kickoffs, Cribbs averages 26.3 yards per return and has scored five times.

Eddie Royal, who handles the return duties for Denver and did so last year as well, has yet to score in his young career and falls short of Cribbs’ averages in both areas.

Kicker is another area where the Browns have an advantage.

Phil Dawson has made of 82.9 percent of his kicks over his successful career, with numerous clutch game-winners over the past two seasons. He may not have the strongest leg in the NFL, but he’s 12-14 between 40-49 yards over the past two seasons and did kick a 56-yarder last season. 

Matt Prater, who handles placekicking duties for Denver, is only a 70 percent career kicker despite going 2-2 in Week One on a couple of long kicks. Last season, he was only 5-11 from 40-49 yards.

In a close game, I’ll take my chances with our far more proven kicker.

The Browns also have the more consistent punter and punt coverage unit. In 2008, Dave Zastudil averaged 45.5 yards per punt, pinned the other team inside their 20-yard line on 30.7 percent of his kicks, and the Browns gave up an average punt return of only 7.3 yards, good for an overall net of 42.3. Also, 43 of Zastudil’s punts were fair caught.

Brett Kern handles the punting duties for Denver, and while he averaged 46.7 yards per kick in 2008, he only pinned the opposing team inside its 20-yard line on 28.3 percent of his kicks. Additionally, the Broncos gave up 4.5 more yards per punt return (11.8) than the Browns, which resulted in a net punt average of 39.6 for Kern.

Here is the best thing about Kern from a Browns perspective: he kicks it long but they are returnable. Whereas only 42.6 percent of Zastudil’s punts were returned in 2008, 60.8 percent of Kern’s were returned. This only accentuates our advantage in the return game and makes Cribbs even more of a factor.

In a game between two subpar offenses, the hidden yardage of the return game could be huge. Points will most likely be at a premium, and the team can put itself in the best position to score with solid field position will most likely end up on top.

Hence why I believe the Browns will win on Sunday.

Browns-Broncos Prediction

I don’t think that Denver is a very good team this year. I’m not sure that the Browns are a good team either, but I do believe we are better than the Broncos.

What does give me a little bit of pause in picking Cleveland to win this Sunday is the fact that the game is in Denver, which has always been a tough place for opponents to play. Between the rowdy fans, the altitude, and the typically strong teams Denver has had, coming into the Mile High city and getting a W has never been easy.

But after the huge withdrawal that the Broncos made from the football karma bank last week, improbably snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, they are ripe for a little payback in Week Two. Add this impending karmic payback to the payback the Browns will already have on their minds after last season’s fourth quarter debacle, and Browns fans have yet another reason to believe.

Last season, the Browns outplayed the Broncos for 45 minutes and then simply ran into a 15-minute fourth quarter buzz saw that could not be stopped. That threat is now gone with Jay Cutler replaced by Kyle Orton.

I think Sunday’s game will be much more like the first three quarters of the 2008 matchup than it will be like the final quarter. In fact, it will probably even be a little closer.

But if you take away that final quarter, the Browns would have won in ‘08.

One year later, with special teams being the difference, the Browns will finish the job.

Take the Browns and the points but understand that you won’t need them:

Cleveland Browns 17 | Denver Broncos 16

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* – Jay Cutler in Browns-Broncos ‘08 photo credit: Duncan / AP via New York Daily News

* – Joshua Cribbs photo credit: Bleacher Report

* – Phil Dawson photo credit: Waiting For Next Year

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Bengals-Packers: Odds, Preview, and Prediction

NFL Week 2 odds will feature a pair of teams that were involved in a couple of thrilling matchups during the first weekend of the season, and there should be a wild affair when Cincinnati heads to Lambeau Field to take on Green Bay.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

Bengals vs Packers odds – Packers -9.5

• Bengals-Packers Date: Sunday, September 20
• Bengals-Packers Time: 1:00
• Bengals-Packers TV Network: CBS
• Bengals-Packers Announcers: Ian Eagle and Rich Gannon
• Bengals-Packers Over-Under: 42
• StubHub: Bengals-Packers tickets as low as $80!

The Bengals were stunned 12-7 by Denver when the Broncos’ Brandon Stokley took a tipped pass and ran 87 yards for a touchdown with 11 seconds left on the clock.

Carson Palmer, who hasn’t played in a regular season game since week six of last year, went 21-of-33 for 247 yards, but he was picked off twice by the Broncos. The defense played very well in shutting down Denverg, but cornerback Leon Hall will see that tipped pass for the rest of the season.

The Packers picked off Chicago’s Jay Cutler four times in his Bears’ debut to pull out a 21-15 win on Sunday night.

This was a typically hard-hitting NFC North affair, and the Packers’ offense struggled to get it going against the Bears, although Aaron Rodgers was 17-of-28 for 184 yards and a touchdown to Greg Jennings, who caught six balls for 106 yards.

However, the defense proved that they would be the key to Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds, and they look like they’ve been playing their new 3-4 scheme for years under coordinator Dom Capers.

The Packers are a whopping nine-point favorite at Lambeau Field, where the Bengals haven’t played since 1995. However, they’re only 1-3 in four trips to Green Bay, and last year they were an atrocious 1-7 away from home.

The Bengals will have to put aside the disappointment of last week’s gut punch from the Broncos, but heading into Green Bay isn’t the best place to get away from your troubles.

The Packers’ defense is swarming and opportunistic, while it looks like Palmer needs a little more time to get back into NFL regular-season shape. Rodgers will play much better than he did in the Chicago game, and this offense could possibly hang a lot of points on a disheartened Cincinnati defense. Go with the Packers in your NFL picks.

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Fantasy Football: Week Two Sleepers at QB, RB, WR, TE, and D/ST

As I admitted to you yesterday in my Week Two Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em post, Week one was not my finest hour. There were a few hits, but more than a few misses, and I am determined to turn that around this week.

Luckily, I set the bar a little higher for myself with my Week one sleeper selections. I didn’t necessarily pick any superstars, but certainly some guys that could have helped you depending on your roster situation.

• Week one Sleeper hits: Brady Quinn (205 yards, TD, 12 pts.); Mike Bell (143 yards, 12 pts.); Isaac Bruce (4 rec, 74 yds, 8.2 pts)
• Week one Sleeper misses: Martellus Bennett (1 rec, 13 yds); New Orleans D (27 pts given up, 3 INTs, 6 pts)

The key thing to remember with sleepers, at least from my perspective, is that they shouldn’t matter all that much until the bye weeks or major injuries start to pile up. If you drafted well, you shouldn’t be doing too much trolling in the 50 percent-or-less owned pool of players unless you are in a very deep league.

It is still too early to tell if your highly drafted players are busts, most everyone is still healthy, and one week is not enough time to tell whether that potential diamond the rough will become a weekly starter.

Still, the earlier that you can identify and latch onto a player who was significantly undervalued on draft day, the better you will be moving forward.

So each of this week’s sleeper picks will be a combination of a) a guy that has a favorable Week two matchup; and b) a guy with the potential to be a weekly starter down the line should certain circumstances fall his way.

Let’s get right to ‘em.

Week 2 Sleeper Picks

Week 2 QB Sleeper Pick: Shaun Hill, San Francisco (vs Seattle)

I was high on Shaun Hill in the offseason and continue to be high on him after the 49ers QB ran his career record to 8-3 in Week one with an efficient (18-31) 209 passing yards and TD. Currently Hill is owned in 25 percent of Yahoo leagues, most likely as a result of the purported QB competition that took place in San Francisco during the offseason.

But with Mike Singletary as the coach, do you really think he was ever going to pass over a guy who has won that high a percentage of his starts?

Hill is not flashy, just effective, which makes him perfect for Singletary’s tastes. And what this means is that, barring injury, Shaun Hill should be starting 16 games this season.

For his career, Hill has a 90.4 QB rating and a 19-9 TD-INT ratio. The 49ers receivers are nothing special, but Hill has an experienced veteran target in Isaac Bruce and a young guy with upside in Josh Morgan. Hill also has a tight end with a lot of potential in Vernon Davis (who you will read more about later.)

Most importantly, Hill has Frank Gore behind him in the backfield.

Although Gore and the 49ers running game struggled in week one, he gives Hill a solid option to dump the ball off to. Gore caught three passes in Week one and took one of them in for a touchdown. He has 53 and 43 catches respectively over the past two seasons.

Here is one more reason to like Hill: the 49ers schedule down the stretch. In weeks 14-17, the 49ers play Arizona, at Philadelphia, Detroit, and at St. Louis. The Philly matchup is tough, but the other three defenses present opportunities for big games.

If you own Tom Brady or Drew Brees, you are probably thinking playoffs right now. What if those guys get hurt? It might not be a bad idea to have a QB on your team who won’t hurt you (a la Jake Delhomme, owned in 43 percent of leagues) and who could be poised for some big games down the stretch.

Week 2 projection for Shaun Hill: 210 yards passing, 1 TD

Other QB sleepers I like specifically in Week two: Jason Campbell, Washington (vs St. Louis, 41 percent owned); JaMarcus Russell, Oakland (at Kansas City, 11 percent owned.)

Week 2 RB Sleeper Pick: RB Correll Buckhalter, Denver Broncos (vs Cleveland)

If you want to know how bad Cleveland’s run defense is, I offer you the following two links:

• Adrian Peterson’s ridiculous Week 1 run
• Browns-Vikings preview

I basically called the Browns-Vikings game exactly as it went, and based much of that prediction on the Browns’ porous run D. Granted, the team looked better in the first half when they had A.P. and the Vikings pretty well bottled up, but Eric Mangini is working no miracles in Cleveland this year.

The Browns will still be at least 20th or lower in rushing defense at season’s end.

Enter Correll Buckhalter (45 percent owned) and the Denver Broncos.

Now, we all know that Knowshon Moreno is the long-term answer in Denver. How soon he will start getting the bulk of the carries though, i’m not sure. Last week, Moreno got eight carries and went for 19 yards. He caught no passes. Buckhalter, on the hand, caught two passes to go along with his eight carries and 46 yards.

Clearly there is a timeshare going on in Denver.

With the Browns putting a surprising amount of pressure on now-statuesque Vikings QB Brett Favre, with a lot of it coming from blitzing safeties, Denver has to be concerned about its backs’ ability to pick up blitzers.

Because Buckhalter is the more experienced of the two, that should give him an edge over Moreno on 2nd-and-long and 3rd down situations.

He has never been a full-time player, but Buckhalter has always produced when given opportunities (4.5 yard career average, 26 catches in 2008.)

He will get few opportunities as sweet as this Sunday’s against the run defense of the Browns, and could have decent value as a bye week flex fill-in moving forward—especially in PPR leagues—even if Knowshon Moreno becomes the feature back on 1st and 2nd downs.

Week 2 projection for Correll Buckhalter: 65 yards rushing, 30 yard receiving, 1 TD

Other RB sleepers I like specifically in Week 2: Michael Bush, Oakland (at Kansas City, 37 percent owned); Ladell Betts, Washington (vs St. Louis, 14 percent owned)

Week 2 WR Sleeper Pick: Robert Meachem, New Orleans (@ Philadelphia)

All offseason we heard about how former first round pick Robert Meachem was finally ready to begin producing for the Saints after two lost seasons. If Week one is any indication, those reports may well prove true.

The Saints’ WR depth chart is interesting. The top two receivers, Marques Colston and Lance Moore, were drafted in the seventh round (Colston) and not drafted at all (Moore). Numbers three and four on the depth chart, however, were drafted in the second round (Devery Henderson) and the first (Meachem.)

So things are a little inverted in New Orleans.

Things are also extremely productive in New Orleans right now, and while Drew Brees won’t be throwing for six TDs every game, the Saints offense is showing every possible sign of being an unstoppable juggernaut in 2009.

Whether Meachem can overtake Colston or Moore in terms of targets is highly doubtful. Those two guys have a better rapport and more game history with Brees, and will most likely end the year with more catches, yards, and touchdowns than either Meachem or Henderson.

But—and it’s a big but—both Colston and Moore have been hurt within the past year. Colston missed time last year and Moore missed the bulk of the preseason. If either goes down, Meachem slides one step closer to getting starting-level WR targets. In New Orleans’ offense, this is a big deal, as Moore unexpectedly proved last year.

This week, Philadelphia will do a much better job of defending Brees than Detroit did. We know that. And in Asante Samual and Sheldon Brown, the Eagles have two pretty good starting corners on the outside. This could be a good game for the Saints’ other WRs, matched up on nickel corners and safeties, to get some increased targets.

And long-term, there are far worse futures buys than a talented former first round pick in his third season who plays in the NFL’s best offense and who also returns kicks.

Week two projection for Robert Meachem: 4 receptions, 71 yards, 1 TD

Other WR sleepers I like specifically in Week two: Antwaan Randle El, Washington (vs St. Louis, 23 percent owned); Michael Clayton, Tampa Bay (at Buffalo, 14 percent owned)

Week two TE Sleeper: Vernon Davis, San Francisco (vs Seattle)

Well, it looks like my work concerning Vernon Davis is not yet done, as Davis still is only owned in 45 percent of leagues. The former first round pick is starting to see more targets though, seven in Week one, and is now more able to turn those targets into production (5 receptions, 40 yards.)

The 49ers are a good team, play in a so-so division, and are devoid of big-time playmakers on the outside. They also have a good, efficient quarterback who will be able to help them keep the chains moving.

Add all of that up, then sprinkle in some of Davis’ immense physical talent and newfound maturity (he’s a captain), and everything appears to be in place for a breakout year from Davis.

This week, San Francisco plays Seattle. The Seahawks should be better this year, and are 1-0, but we really know nothing about them because they’ve only played St. Louis. And for goodness sakes, they gave up four catches and 44 yards to Randy McMichael. No, those aren’t great numbers, but…Randy McMichael?

Watch out, because this could be Vernon Davis’ breakout game and then you’ll all wish you’d listened to me when I told you to pick him up.

Week two projection for Vernon Davis: 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD

Other TE sleepers I like specifically in Week two: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs New Orleans, 43 percent owned); Todd Heap, Baltimore (at San Diego, 38 percent owned.)

Week two D/ST Sleeper: Washington Redskins (vs St. Louis)

Well, that was easy. The Redskins have a very good defense, and it should only improve this season with Albert Haynesworth. This week they are playing the St. Louis Rams, a team with the worst offense in the NFL west of Cleveland.

Start the Redskins. You won’t be disappointed. (And if you are, it probably means that Jim Zorn is getting fired on Monday.)

Other D/ST sleepers I like specifically in Week two: Atlanta (vs Carolina, 27 percent owned)

Remember to use the comment section for any and all fantasy questions leading up to the start of games on Sunday. I’ll do my best to answer them promptly.

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