NFL Survivor Picks Week 15: Texans, Broncos, and Cardinals

Not too much to recap last week, since there weren’t many survivor pool exits. My Week 14 picks went 3-0 by a combined margin of 95 points, thanks mostly to big lopsided wins by the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens.

I was leery of the New England Patriots last week, and they certainly showed us why. You’d think they had lost the game with the negative post-game press. Randy Moss was accused of taking the day off after getting knocked around early by the Panthers.

Based on Moss’ performance, it is hard to argue otherwise. However, we won’t be worrying about the Patriots this week. We’ll let the boys and girls over in the Pats Community debate the ups and downs of their once-always-up franchise. Let’s move on to the Week 15 survivor pool picks.

 

Houston Texans over St. Louis Rams (stats)

The Texans are following a similar path of many preseason sleeper pick darlings. Things looked good early. Then, after numerous disappointments this season resulting in their chance at a playoff berth going on life support (i.e. absolutely everything at this point has to break right), they pick up their game and march towards a .500 record, give or take a game.

They are doing just enough to try to save their coach’s job and give him another shot with this young, talented squad. Maybe next year will be their year.

After four consecutive division losses, each by fewer than 10 points and twice by just three, the Texans blew out the Seattle Seahawks 34-7. The passing game is cruising even without a reliable running game, where finding the right starter has been problematic to say the least.

Last week, rookie Arian Foster came in after starter Chris Brown flopped and Ryan Moats fumbled. Foster posted okay numbers buy they weren’t anything to get too excited about, considering the lopsided score. Hard to say who will start for the Texans this week, but we can expect a similar three-way rotation and average rushing ability overall.

The Rams defense kept Chris Johnson to 117 yards on 28 carries, which, in the grand scheme of things, isn’t too bad. But perhaps it had more to do with the short field for the Titans created by numerous Rams turnovers. He just ran out of room to run.

The Rams just aren’t very good at defending either the rush or the pass, so the balanced attack of the Texans should have their way in this game. Even though the Rams had been giving up fewer points in recent weeks (before last week), 30 points allowed looks like a good estimate.

As for the Rams’ offense, the name Keith Null doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. His performance last week as the starting QB didn’t do anything to shake that. Null was 27 of 43 (63 percent), which isn’t bad until you look at the rest of the line. Passing yards topped out at 157 with one touchdown and five interceptions. Yikes.

Stud RB Steven Jackson had a rough go of it last week, rushing 19 times for 47 yards, marking his worst game of the year. Jackson is banged up, but honestly, regardless of his playing status, even a Herculean effort this week will not net impressive results after this season’s performance.

The Texans’ defense is right around average, but they are sure to look better than average this week against the Rams. The Rams scored fewer than 10 points in each of the last two games, marking the fifth and sixth time this season.

Even the most optimistic Rams fan couldn’t expect more than 17 points, could they? I’m thinking 13 or fewer.

Want another feather in your cap betting against the Rams? Okay, they cancelled practice this week when five or six players reported flu-like symptoms. That was Thursday, but they were back at practice Friday.

Take the Texans if you haven’t already as the best pick on the board this week.

 

Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (stats)

So, how bad are things when once former starting QB, drafted to be the franchise QB, gets benched midway through the season, gets injured, and is passed over for…wait for it…Charlie Frye. That’s pretty bad, and it is exactly what is happening to JaMarcus Russell this week.

I guess we don’t need to dwell on this too much, because it isn’t Russell we need to worry about. It is Charlie Frye. I need to say it twice because I still find it hard to believe that Keith Null and Charlie Frye are NFL starting quarterbacks. And people wonder why Brett Favre keeps coming back? It’s because he is more than qualified, people!

Okay, off that rant/tangent.

We’ve been burned by the Raiders pulling off a surprise upset win not once, not twice, but three times this year. Can they do it again? I don’t think so. Not with Frye under center, and not against the, once again, surging Denver Broncos.

Admittedly, the Broncos did lose last week to the Colts, and it wasn’t that close with a 28-16 final score, and the Colts scoring the first 21 points in the game. Prior to that, though, the Broncos obliterated the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants, both more resembling the caliber of the Raiders team.

Correll Buckhalter is out for this game, so rookie Knowshon Moreno will carry the load for the Broncos. I would expect a very good game from him. The Raiders are giving up an adjusted average of 140 rushing yards per game in recent weeks.

The consistent concern of the Broncos is Kyle Orton, and whether he is going to find orange and blue jerseys, or silver and black. He does have one interception in each of the past four games, and he’s topped 60 percent completions the past three games, including 70 percent last week.

Orton hooked up with Brandon Marshall a new NFL record of 21 times. If there was ever any doubt for Orton that Marshall is his top receiving option, or doubt for the rest of us that Marshall is a top WR talent in this league, that pretty much erased it.

The Raiders have a very good cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha, but overall are not good against the pass. The Broncos should have success on the ground and through the air in this game. Outside of the games against the Giants and Chiefs, the Broncos aren’t scoring a lot of points, but regardless, we just need to be confident that they will dominate the Raiders.

And that brings us back to Charlie Frye. We already know the Raiders’ receivers are poor, so do we think that bringing in Frye, who couldn’t cut it in Seattle or Cleveland, is going to elevate their play? Frye wasn’t even the backup, but the third receiver practically all season. He couldn’t have much in the way of reps with the offense. This has trainwreck written all over it.

I actually think the Broncos defense is pretty good. They aren’t great. They aren’t as good as they looked early in the year as teams started to figure them out a bit, but they are capable of dominating weaker teams.

As much as the Raiders have burned survivor pool players this year, I just don’t see it happening again here. The Broncos have too much on the line—they still control their own destiny for the playoffs, but many teams are nipping at their heels—and they are at home. We should get a solid performance from them and, ultimately, the win.

 

Arizona Cardinals over Detroit Lions (stats)

Whoa, what the heck was that on Monday night? The Cardinals turned the ball over seven times, five of those being fumbles. The 49ers dominated the Cards from start to finish en route to a 24-9 win. Are the Cardinals just too comfortable with their division lead and coasting?

A little early for coasting, fellas, and I’m sure coach Ken Whisenhunt was only too keen to point that out to them. Time for a bounce-back game, and, lo and behold, it is against one of the sorriest teams amongst many this year: the Lions.

The Lions will look to Daunte Culpepper to start again this week with Matt Stafford still on the shelf, and I know Culpepper wants to prove that he can still play at a high level, but, it appears his ship has sailed. The Lions mustered just three points last week against the Ravens, with Culpepper completing 16 of 34 passes for 135 yards and two INT.

Beyond Calvin Johnson, there is no offensive threat there. The Lions can’t pass well and they can’t run well—the running made worse this week after losing Kevin Smith for the season (and perhaps the start of next) with a torn ACL. Rookie Aaron Brown and Maurice Morris will pick up the slack.

The Lions haven’t managed over 13 points in three straight weeks. Prior to last week, the Cardinals had allowed 20 or fewer in their four previous games, including against some tough opponents, the Titans and Minnesota Vikings. Barring a turnover-turned-touchdown by the Lions defense, it is hard to imagine the Lions topping 20 points.

As for the Cardinals’ offense, they are stocked with talent at the skill positions. Using adjusted stats for the past five weeks, they are above the league average in points, rushing yards, and passing yards.

The 49ers pressure Kurt Warner constantly, but the Lions don’t have the defensive players to pull that off.  They average just a sack a game, and are way below the league average creating turnovers.

Most significantly, the Lions are getting torched through the air, which, in turn, allows the opposition to run the ball with relative ease. I expect the Cards to be able to pull off much the same in this one.

There is a slight concern the Cardinals will not take this game too seriously. Even with the loss last week, the Cards remain two games up on the 49ers for the division, and they aren’t going to catch the Vikings or Saints for a first round bye.

After last week’s debacle, though, they should play some inspired ball this week. Expecting similar results from the Lions is a long shot at best. Chalk up a win for the Cardinals.

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FFToday.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Survivor Picks Week 14: Titans, Ravens and (gulp) Patriots

Last week’s recap: Chargers—check. Bengals—check. Steelers—uncheck.

Did I say the Raiders were a bit dangerous for the Steelers to face last week? I did, but come on, the Raiders? The Pittsburgh Steelers, at home, lose to the Oakland Raiders. What’s next? With their season on the line they’re going to lose a primetime game to the Cleveland Browns? Er…

I lost fewer people in my survivor pools due to the Steelers inability to shut the door on the Bruce Gradkowski to Louis Murphy hookup than expected. The poll last week had a healthy 20 percent of the votes backing the Steelers.

That is one of those games where you’ve got to love the unpredictable NFL, yet as a Steelers fan or survivor pool player, you’ve got to hate the NFL. Expect the unexpected, I always say. That is what keeps us coming back for more.

And assuming you are still alive in your survivor pool and debating your pick for Week 14, here are the ones I recommend you consider.

Tennessee Titans over St. Louis Rams (stats )

The Titans really had their chances against the Colts to if not ultimately pull off the win, at least make it a lot tighter throughout and down to the wire.

They drove to the Indy two yard line early but settled for a field goal. A first-and-goal from the one netted no points in the second half and they came away empty on another second half drive into the red zone. Some ill-advised fade passes by Vince Young instead of pounding the ball sealed their fate.

The point is this is still a team to be reckoned with. And given their early season struggles, if you are still alive in your survivor pool there is a good chance you have the Titans available to you.

I was optimistic the Rams would beat the Bad News Bears last week. It didn’t happen, as the incredibly predictable offense mustered a mere nine points. Steven Jackson continued to churn out the yards with 112 on 28 carries, but the lack of a passing threat courtesy of QB Kyle Boller and a sad sack compliment of receivers make the team too easy to defend and keep off the board.

As for the Rams defense, they are down another starter, and a good one. They lost S Oshiomogho Atogwe for the season with a shoulder injury. This hurts their already questionable pass defense, not that teams need to pass on them.

In the past six weeks the Rams are giving up an adjusted average of 160 yards per game on the ground. Expect not just a good day but a monster yardage day by Chris Johnson that could go a long way in determining if he will or will not approach 2,000 yards on the season or Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record of 2,105 (131.6 per game). Johnson currently sits at 1,509 (125.8 per game)

With the Browns recording their second win of the season last night, only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand in the way of the one-win Rams getting the first pick in the NFL Draft. The Titans playoff hopes are slim but still alive.

After a loss to the division rival Colts last week, expect a rebound game for the Titans as they beat up on the Rams.

Baltimore Ravens over Detroit Lions (stats )

Similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but perhaps not to the same degree, the Ravens are not very impressive this year. In fact, given the Steelers struggles of late, the recent 20-17 overtime win by the Ravens over the Steelers kind of sends up a red flag that the Ravens are not as good as public perception.

The biggest difference is the defense is not as dominating as we’re used to seeing. Whether that is because of the loss of Rex Ryan, or key players are getting older like Ray Lewis, or the recent injuries such as Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed. I would suspect a combination of all three, and the injury bug hit them again last week as LB Jarret Johnson got knocked out of the game and hasn’t practiced this week.

The offense is not firing like it did early in the season, relying too much on Ray Rice and then Derrick Mason as the only consistent receiving threat, although Kelley Washington is playing well converting third downs.

They’ve essentially beaten the teams they were expected to beat, like the Browns twice. They did keep it close against the Colts, losing 17-15, but they’ve alternated wins and losses for the past seven games. Fortunately, this is a “win” week and they are facing a team they are expected to beat.

Daunte Culpepper will start for the Lions this week and he definitely has something to prove after getting unexpectedly snubbed out of his start on Thanksgiving Day. Unfortunately for Culpepper, he doesn’t have the supporting cast to really help him much, outside of Calvin Johnson.

The Ravens are still a good rushing defense and Kevin Smith is not as dangerous as he was his rookie season. His yards per carry is down to 3.5 from 4.1 in 2008. Don’t expect much in the running game, leaving it in Culpepper’s hands.

While Culpepper to Johnson may have some success, the Ravens should be able to limit those opportunities and the Lions points. Outside of the wild game against Cleveland, the Lions have only hit 20 points once since Week Six, and had double digit losses in five games.

The Ravens offense will have a good opportunity to bolster their stats, particularly through the air where the Lions are allowing an adjusted average of 300 yards per game against a league average of 224.

The Ravens may not be as good as expected this season, but between an advantage on offense, defense and likely in turnovers, they should have more than enough to dispose of the Lions.

New England Patriots over Carolina Panthers (stats )

Still dumbfounded by the back-to-back losses by the Steelers, I’ve mentioned them in almost every section of this article. Okay, let’s keep going.

Are we sometimes slow to react to change when a great team becomes good, and then average to poor? Things happen fast, and I think it definitely is a difficult balance between not wanting to put too much stock in recent performance, and recognizing the trend of a once former great team fallen on hard times, or certainly harder than it used to be.

One example is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Another is, perhaps, the Patriots.

The Pats have lost three of four and blew a 21-10 lead to the Miami Dolphins last week, all very un-Patriot like. The once comfortable AFC East division lead is a little more tenuous at this point, sitting only a game up on the Dolphins and New York Jets.

A sign of things further hitting the fan, head coach Bill Belichick sent home four players from practice this week after they were late for a team meeting.

The players were Randy Moss, Gary Guyton, Derrick Burgess and Adalius Thomas, who was, “dumbfounded ” by the move. I wonder if Thomas will be similarly dumbfounded if he finds himself inactive on Sunday after airing this in the media.

Sunday, right, there is still a game to play. From a pure statistical and talent standpoint, the Pats should be able to record a win over the visiting Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers won just 16-6 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week and that is with the help of five interceptions by Bucs QB Josh Freeman. That was not an inspiring win by the Panthers.

DeAngelo Williams was out so Jonathan Stewart shouldered the load, admirably so, and Williams should be back this week. The Patriots are generally good but not great against the run and this facet of the game should be an interesting battle.

Where the Patriots are getting torched lately is through the air. Recent games against the Saints and Colts will tend to do that to your defensive stats, but they also allowed 335 yards passing to Chad Henne last week.

Panthers coach John Fox has been noncommittal about who his starter will be this week, Jake Delhomme or Matt Moore, who made his first start last week since 2007. Either way, advantage Patriots against the Panthers passing game.

On offense, outside of recent more moderate scores against the Saints and Dolphins, the Patriots are still putting up points. Their big guns, Tom Brady to Moss and Wes Welker, are churning out the yards. The running game is adequate even though they are getting stymied in short-yardage situations.

The Patriots have big point potential and the Panthers have not really faced a top quality offense since the Saints dropped 30 points on them back in Week Nine. Brady is reported to have some minor injuries he’s dealing with, not to mention probable lack of sleep from his newborn.

Similar to last week, I’m going to drop the Patriots into my third suggested pick spot. I’m not in love with the pick, but between the talent disparity, home game and division title on the line for the Patriots, they should be able to secure a win over the Panthers.

Not to mention I’ve committed this column to three picks per week and I’m not seeing any others that are really jumping out at me. Go with the Pats if you’ve already used the Titans and Ravens.

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FFToday.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Survivor Picks Week 13: Chargers, Bengals and Steelers

There weren’t very many casualties in survivor pools last week, whether you made early picks on Turkey Day, or saved them until Sunday, most of the anticipated big winners pulled out the win. The Philadelphia Eagles didn’t win very convincingly over the Washington Redskins, but between the Eagles and Bengals my picks were 2-0 last week .

For this week, three double-digit favorites are starring us in the face, so depending how deep you are into your survivor pool (started Week One or later ) then your choice may just come down to who you have available and who you want to save for later. There aren’t a lot of weeks left to save for.

 

San Diego Chargers over Cleveland Browns (stats )

One of the hottest teams in the league versus a team that is making a run at the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft. This one could not look more lopsided statistically.

The Chargers offense is clicking on all cylinders with Philip Rivers continuing to post great numbers even though his number one WR Vincent Jackson has seen a dip in his catches, yards and touchdowns the past few games from earlier in the season. Rivers is distributing the ball more and the running game is improved, making the offense more difficult to defend.

LaDainian Tomlinson still hasn’t cracked 100 yards rushing in a game this season, but he is playing better and is dangerous around the goal line, scoring four TD from inside the five yard line in the past three games.

The Browns keep getting hit with more injuries. This week they have a big hole to fill, being DT Shaun Rogers who recorded four tackles and a sack last week but also suffered lower leg and ankle injuries. He’s now on injured reserve and gone for the year.

The Browns defense also lost S Brodney Pool (concussion) since last week. Pool recorded an interception every other week since Week Four and will be missed.

The Chargers have scored 30+ points in each of their last three games, and never less than 21 on the season. The Browns have allowed 30+ points five times.

Unless the Chargers decide to copycat the Bengals from last week—45 rushes for 210 yards in over 38 minutes of possession—it would be a surprise if the Chargers do not post 30+ on the Browns.

Turning it around looking at the Browns offense against the Chargers defense, this is another improving area for the Chargers. The Chargers suffered key defensive injuries early in the season and had trouble stopping the run, but have since been pretty good in all aspects – passing, rushing, points against, turnovers and sacks.

Another injury to report for the Browns – they placed Jamal Lewis on IR due to post-concussion symptoms, which likely spells the end of his career. Lewis already stated earlier this season he is headed for retirement after the 2009 season.

The Chargers did lose S Eric Weddle last week with a sprained knee and he’ll miss at least a couple games, but I don’t see that being a big factor in this one.

The Browns have seven games to their credit this year scoring under 10 points. This one should be all San Diego.

Looking ahead, the Chargers remaining opponents are the Dallas Cowboys, Bengals Tennessee Titans and finally, Washington Redskins in Week 17. The only premium matchup here is the Redskins and given the uncertainty associated with that final week of the season, now could be the ideal time to use the Chargers if you haven’t already.

 

Cincinnati Bengals over Detroit Lions (stats )

Chad Ochocinco is calling for more passing this week after witnessing 45 rushing plays in the Bengals last game, a 16-7 win over the Browns. The Bengals are an impressive team this year, but they’ve done it with a control the clock ground game and solid defense, not a high flying aerial show.

In fact the Bengals have scored under 20 points in each of their last four games and six of their last seven, but its working like a charm as they are 5-2 in that span.

The question for this week becomes, are the Detroit Lions dangerous enough to put up 20 points on the Bengals and at the same time hold down the Bengals offense to its customary under 20 score? Anything is possible in the NFL, but playing the probabilities it is unlikely.

The Lions are more dangerous than the Browns offensively, but QB Matthew Stafford continues to struggle with his control. He tossed four more interceptions last week, bringing his season total to 18. The Bengals are tough against the pass and are up to the task shutting down Stafford’s top receiving option Calvin Johnson leaving Stafford with little else to work with.

In terms of rushing, the Lions Kevin Smith is an okay player but not a tough runner, going down somewhat easily after first contact. The Bengals held each of Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall to under 50 yards on about a dozen carries in recent weeks, so don’t expect a big game from Smith.

Yes, the Lions are capable of putting up 20 or more points, but they are under that total more than over it. They’ve scored just 12 or less in four of their last six games. Admittedly the last two were against top ranked defenses, but the Bengals are also near that top tier and they should hold the Lions to a very modest score.

As mentioned, the Bengals are not scoring a lot themselves, but can they do it if and when they need to? They can, and certainly against the Lions defense they can. They sport an excellent running game that hasn’t missed a beat even with Cedric Benson missing the last two games. He is expected back this week.

Carson Palmer to Ochocinco plus Laveranues Coles and improving Andre Caldwell is a solid set of skill players in the passing game.

The Lions have allowed 27 or more points in each of their past four games. I’m not sure if Ochocinco will get his wish for more passing this week, but assuming the Bengals don’t look past the Lions like they did the Raiders two weeks ago, the Bengals will chalk up another win.

Looking ahead, the Bengals remaining games are Minnesota Vikings, San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets. The next two games are terrible survivor pool options. The final two games have potential, but the Bengals may not have much to play for at that point the way things are going. This could be an opportune week to use the Bengals if they are still available to you.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers over Oakland Raiders (stats )

Of the teams we are picking on this week, the Browns, Lions and Raiders, I do consider the Raiders to be the most dangerous of the three. Obviously, they’ve already had a direct impact on many a survivor pool booting this year beating the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals.

Mind you, those games were in Oakland and in the Bengals case, they were coming off two huge wins. The Raiders are much more of a train wreck when they go on the road. Plus, the Steelers have three straight losses against them, so they are in no position to take the Raiders for granted as they need this win to keep playoff hopes alive.

Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return this week after somewhat surprisingly missing last week’s game against the rival Baltimore Ravens. Not that Dennis Dixon played poorly last week, so its hard to say if Roethlisberger would have made the difference (of course the overtime interception was on Dixon), but there is more comfort the Steelers offense can go full tilt with Big Ben in there.

Rashard Mendenhall ran well last week with 24 carries for 95 yards, and he should top those totals against the Raiders. The Raiders allowed good games on the ground to Jamaal Charles and Bernard Scott, plus the Cowboys trio, in recent weeks.

The Raiders defense is not allowing a ton of points most weeks, but the combination of poor defense and an offense that just can’t score very much has led to some lopsided losses.

Bruce Gradkowski will continue to start for the Raiders, which is an improvement over JaMarcus Russell but still not a good option to run an NFL offense. In his two starts he’s completing just 50% of his passes for under 200 yards per game.

The Steelers defense is a little difficult to figure out this season. Watching them through most of the game they still look reasonably stout, but they are allowing more big plays and cannot hold leads like they are expected to. The loss of Troy Polamalu is obviously huge, and he is doubtful to play this week, but there isn’t a lot of concern Gradkowski and his receivers can take advantage of his absence like Joe Flacco of the Ravens did last week.

Keep in mind the Kansas City game the Steelers gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown, a problem that has plagued them this year. They seem to have addressed it by putting better players, like LB James Harrison, back on kick coverage.

The Steelers should be able to pressure and rattle Gradkowski into a low scoring result while the Steelers offense puts a comfortable number of points on the board to secure the win.

The Steelers do have a game next week that looks good in terms of survivor pool options, as they play at Cleveland, with three tougher games after that. So, you may want to use the Steelers here or save them for next week.

Next week’s schedule does have some additional good looking options, including Ravens versus Detroit Lions and Tennessee Titans versus St. Louis Rams.  If you have the Ravens or Titans available you might use them next week, after the Steelers this week.

 

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FFToday.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Bengals-Eagles: NFL Survivor Picks Week Twelve (Post T-Day)

Happy Thanksgiving! Yes, we had Thanksgiving Day games this week yet I am still writing my survivor picks on Friday as usual.

You can bet I would have had the heavily favored (and rightfully so) Green Bay Packers over the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys over the Oakland Raiders amongst my top picks, but writing the article prior to Friday just doesn’t fit into my schedule.

In the pools I’m running (one , two , three ), between 18 percent and 35 percent had Green Bay or Dallas, and they can sit back and enjoy the weekend, cheering for upsets galore. As for the rest of us, we have some work to survive another week.

Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers were a huge disappointment losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime. The Steelers give up way too many kick return touchdowns, and they did just that, but they should have been capable of spotting the Chiefs seven points and still win the game

The team was without star safety Troy Polamalu, but we knew that going in. It is not like they are not used to playing without him from earlier in the season.

People think that Kansas City is a tough place to play. It isn’t really, not in recent history. Prior to this game, the Chiefs were 3-17 at home since the start of the 2007 season.

So what happened? Near as I can figure, the Steelers just blew it. Fortunately for them, the Bengals also blew their game against the Raiders—a game I was leery about and therefore kept it out of my top three picks —but unfortunately, the Steelers loss led to a fair number of survivor pool exits last week.

My other picks, the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals, came through as expected for a 2-1 week. Now, let’s get on to this week.

 

Cincinnati Bengals Over Cleveland Browns (stats )

If you used the Bengals last week, then you probably aren’t reading this article. The Raiders pulled their second survivor pool “gotcha” of the year (recall Philadelphia Eagles, Week Six) scoring 10 points inside the final two minutes to upset the Bengals.

The Bengals were coming off huge divisional wins in back-to-back weeks over the Baltimore Ravens and Steelers, so a flat game travelling to Oakland was not that much of a surprise. There is enough body of work this year to indicate the Bengals are, in fact, for real (for right now) and the Raiders game was a one-off rather than exposing the Bengals as a fraud.

The Bengals are playing excellent defense, and the offense is clicking well with the running game and distributed passing by QB Carson Palmer. They just aren’t putting up many points in recent weeks. Short of the 45 they dropped on the Bears, the past five of six games are all under 20 points.

One reason is because they are a ball control, grind it out running offense. A small silver lining that came out of the Raiders game is that, even without bruiser Cedric Benson in the lineup, the Bengals appear to have a player in rookie RB Bernard Scott. Scott handled 21 carries plus three catches for 150 yards. If Benson cannot go again this week, then Scott should be able to fill in admirably.

Given the state of the Browns defense, as witnessed in the dramatic loss to the Detroit Lions last week, can we expect the Bengals to be closer to 20 points or 45 in this one? I’d say, closer to 45. Palmer should have his way with the Browns.

As for the Browns’ offense against the Bengals’ defense, yes, Brady Quinn did have a career day last week tossing four TD passes. As the Thanksgiving Day early game helped us keep Matthew Stafford’s Week Eleven performance in perspective with, “well, that was against the Browns,” we can similarly expect that last week Quinn’s stats were highly influenced by, “well, that was against the Lions.”

Last week was not an indication that the Browns have turned the corner on offense, and what we can expect to see is a sub-100 yard rushing, around 150 yard passing day by the Browns, resulting in 14 or fewer points.

The Browns did play the Bengals pretty tough earlier this season, a 23-20 overtime win by the Bengals at Cleveland. The Browns suffered multiple key injuries since then, and rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi isn’t going to sneak up on them this time.

Mark down the Bengals for the win.

 

Philadelphia Eagles Over Washington Redskins (stats )

Another division game, which is in general a no-no for survivor pools, but one in which the game seems lopsided enough in the home team’s favor that we’ll buck the general rule and pick the Eagles for the win.

The Redskins did just about knock off the Cowboys last week, losing 7-6 with the Dallas TD coming very late in the fourth quarter. Plus, the Redskins won the prior week at home to the Denver Broncos, 27-17 on the strength of a great rushing day by Ladell Betts and after knocking Kyle Orton out of the game.

The Redskins have since lost Betts for the year, and Clinton Portis doesn’t seem any closer to returning to the lineup. Special-teamer Rock Cartwright filled in admirably last week off the bench but can he pull that stunt again? I have my doubts.

The Redskins’ offense is short on talent and scheme, that posting average points is a struggle. They’ve been sub-20 points nine times this year, and given the Eagles’ defense is fairly stout, holding opponents to 20 or less seven of eight times since their bye, bank on the Redskins scoring under 20.

As for the Eagles offense against the Redskins defense, the Eagles could (I say could) have a little trouble. The Redskins are pretty good defensively, while the Eagles rely on the big play since their young guys are, not unexpectedly, rather inconsistent. If the big plays don’t happen, the offense could struggle a little.

Still, the Eagles showed more commitment to the run last week than their typical m.o., giving LeSean McCoy 20 carries and he delivered with 99 yards and a TD. I’m not sure this is a sign of things to come, but it is a positive if they get more run-pass balance. They even seem to have figured out how to use Michael Vick better than earlier in the season.

The Eagles should be able to control this game by shutting down the Redskins’ offense and putting their own offense into good field position to score. Furthermore, this game has to mean a lot more to the Eagles at this point than to the Redskins, who continue to walk around wondering who their new coach is going to be next year.

The Eagles need to keep pace with the Cowboys, who won Thursday and currently hold a one-and-a-half game edge over Philly. If Philly loses and falls two full games back at this late stage of the season, they might have to kiss the division title goodbye.

Count on a strong Philly performance and win on Sunday.

 

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FFToday.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Survivor Picks Week 11: Steelers, Patriots, and Cardinals

The New Orleans Saints put last week’s top three picks into a bit of jeopardy with an uneasy win over the St. Louis Rams, but the Saints, along with the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings, gave me a clean sweep in Week 10.

The Ravens pick seemed a bit dodgy on Monday night with the nil-nil tie at halftime against the Browns, but they eventually got interested enough in the game to score and shut out Cleveland.

It is hard to believe I watched that entire game, but I guess that is what fantasy football does for a person.

At least this Monday’s game looks a fair bit better—Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans—and has plenty of fantasy implications, but it’s one I would stay far away from for survivor pools.

Let’s get to the three games I would strongly consider for Week 11.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers over Kansas City Chiefs (stats )

The Steelers must feel like they are in some kind of alternate reality. They got swept by the Cincinnati Bengals? The Bengals are in first place in their division? What the heck is going on here?

Don’t pinch yourselves, Steelers fans; you aren’t dreaming, and the season isn’t over yet. Fresh off a second loss to the Bengals, who stands in the Steelers’ way from which to rebound and put that last game behind them? It is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs are starting to show some spark lately. They’ve won two of their last four games, and nearly won a third, all on the road. Recently acquired Chris Chambers has made an immediate impact, starting both games since arriving in KC and catching six passes for 130 yards and two TDs.

Unfortunately the hits keep on coming for the Chiefs, and Chambers will need to be even more active going forward. Top receiver Dwayne Bowe was suspended this week for four games due to performance-enhancing drugs.

That puts another dent in their offense, which regardless of some weak defensive competition in recent weeks (Raiders, Jaguars, Redskins) has still only managed to top 20 points three times this year. Against the Steelers’ stout defense it is hard to imagine the Chiefs exceeding 20 points.

Prior to the Bengals game, the Steelers scored 20 or more six straight games. This should be a big game for Rashard Mendenhall as the Chiefs are giving up over 150 yards rushing per game in recent weeks.

The Chiefs defense is limiting their points against in a somewhat reasonable fashion, but again, that seems more a function of who they’ve been facing. Their last home game was a 37-7 whitewash at the hands of the surging San Diego Chargers.

Lock up the Steelers for a win this week.

 

New England Patriots over New York Jets (stats )

Regardless of what you think about the 4th-and-2 call—right, wrong, WTF?, sweet, injustice, brilliant, karma—the Patriots offense is back.

Tom Brady started 2009 as not the same Tom Brady from prior to his knee injury suffered in Week One of the 2008 season, but he looks all the way back now. He’s hooking up with Randy Moss and Wes Welker nearly at will (a better running game would help), allowing the team to post 27-plus points for four straight games.

Admittedly, those were against less than stellar defenses, including the Colts, who typically are pretty good but had numerous starters from their secondary out last week. Plus, the Jets had the Pats’ number back in Week Two, stifling the offense and winning the game, 16-9.

As mentioned, Brady was not in his groove then. Plus, Welker sat out that game. Darrelle Revis did an effective job shutting down Moss while the Jets defense pressured and frustrated Brady all game.

Can the Jets repeat that performance this time around? I don’t think so. The Jets are flat. The Jets have lost five of their last six, the only win a 38-0 blanking of the Raiders. The Jets defense is looking rather average at this point.

The Jets are down NT Kris Jenkins and RB Leon Washington since the earlier Pats game, two big losses from their defense and offense, respectively. Sure, they also added Braylon Edwards since then, but rookie QB Mark Sanchez is playing a lot more like a rookie since their long forgotten three-game winning streak to start the season.

The Pats defense, again, regardless of “the call,” is playing well and holding teams off the scoreboard—five games under 20 points against, and seven at 21 or fewer.

Statistically the Jets are way above average rushing, while the Pats are a little better than average against the run. That matchup is in reality close to even given the Jets racked up a lot of yards on some terrible run defenses, and Shonn Greene does not look nearly as dynamic as Washington.

The Pats have the advantage on offense and defense in this one, plus some major motivation from their head coach as a result of the national criticism heaped on Bill Belichick since last Sunday night’s loss. It would be a big surprise if the Jets pulled out another upset win over the Pats.

This is an ideal time to back the Patriots for the win in your survivor pool.

 

Arizona Cardinals over St. Louis Rams (stats )

Super Bowl hangover? Madden jinx? Apparently the Cardinals are immune to such things. Of course, it helps playing in the worst division in football, but who are we to knock the recent success of what was once of the saddest franchises in the NFL?

Short of an inexplicable five-interception performance by Kurt Warner back in Week Eight against the Carolina Panthers, the Cards have beaten every team in their path since September.

Not surprisingly, they’ve done it primarily with offense. Surprisingly, all of a sudden they appear to have a running game. Chris “Beanie” Wells looks like a player, and perhaps finally head coach Ken Whisenhunt is ready to give Wells more of the rushing load. Wells had 16 carries last week to Tim Hightower’s 10, and Wells delivered with 85 yards and two TDs.

Of course the passing game continues to churn out the yards as one of the most prolific in the league, led by Warner and receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, now recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Chicago game.

Before I continue to throw too many accolades in the Cardinals’ direction, let’s talk Rams. The Rams are showing some life. They played the New Orleans Saints tough at home last week, ultimately losing by five points.

Steven Jackson continues to be one of the top running backs in the league and has found the end zone in each of the past two games after getting blanked the first seven.

The defense is creating some turnovers, and the defensive line is getting some pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

All in all, though, the Rams have a dearth of talent on the roster. Their receivers, a weak group to start the season, lost another starter and replaced him last week with rookie Brandon Gibson, acquired when they sent LB Will Witherspoon to the Eagles.

Gibson performed well enough, but we’re talking about a rookie receiver the Eagles held on to as their sixth receiver now starting for the Rams. If the Cardinals can slow down Jackson—and their defensive strength is against the run—then the Rams are not going to get much accomplished in this game offensively.

The Cardinals offense should be in the ballpark of 28 or more points scored in this game, which should be more than enough to secure the win.

Take the Cardinals, and short of another Warner speed bump throwing the ball to the wrong-colored shirts, count on sticking around for another week in your survivor pool.

 

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FFToday.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Survivor Picks Week 10: Big Favorites Ravens, Vikings, and Saints

I agonized last week about what order to put my three picks in. Each team—Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, and Seattle Seahawks—held the top spot for a moment, but ultimately I put the Packers on top.

They were the best offense of the bunch. They were the only team playing against a previously winless team. That team was rolling with their third string QB out of training camp for his first career NFL start.

The Packers blew it. They gave up a blocked punt returned for a TD in the first half and squandered a 28-17 lead in the fourth quarter, handing the Tampa Buccaneers their first win of the season.

Nice job Pack. Way to show that killer instinct.

Not unexpectedly, pass protection and QB Aaron Rodgers holding the ball too long were big problems. The Packers were playing a team getting torched weekly against the run and with well below average pass rushers, and still they allowed six sacks against. That’s terrible.

The Packers are now firmly on my list of teams that can’t be trusted, right along with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Hopefully you went with one of the other two picks. The Falcons made quick work of the Washington Redskins, and the Seahawks disposed of the Detroit Lions.

One small silver lining about the Bucs’ win is the race for the top draft pick next April heats up a little. Like I said, “small” silver lining.

If you’re still alive in your survivor pool, then let’s look at some teams to consider for Week 10.

 

Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns (stats )

Does the return of QB Brady Quinn (to the starting lineup, not that he really went anywhere), in front of a home crowd on Monday Night Football give some sliver of hope for a Browns upset win? Call it sliver of hope or grasping at straws or whatever, it isn’t going to happen.

How did the Browns get a Monday night game anyway? That question is tougher than predicting how this game is likely to turn out.

The Ravens are going to feed the ball to RB Ray Rice, who could enjoy his best game of the season as Ryan Grant did against the Browns back in Week Seven. Matt Forte also had a good one in the Browns’ last game two weeks ago prior to their bye week.

The Browns placed LB Eric Baron on injured reserve since that previous game, joining LB D’Qwell Jackson already out with a shoulder injury. This leaves them very thin at the inside linebacker spots. If the Ravens can open holes to allow Rice to get past DT Shaun Rogers, then there could be ample yards to gain before getting tackled. It is not as if the Browns are known for having quality roster depth.

Browns RB Jamal Lewis is on his farewell tour, having already announced his retirement at the end of the season. What a way to go out.

The former Raven may be motivated to put it to his former team in prime time, but instead Lewis said this week he believes head coach Eric Mangini is pushing the players too hard and wearing them out. It is highly doubtful he is the only one who feels that way, and it’s one more indication why the Browns are so flat. They are not playing for their coach.

Back to the Browns offense: Lewis is going to have to face DT Haloti Ngata, who was very close to playing but inactive for the Ravens last week. This is a boost for the Ravens run defense, so don’t expect much from Lewis this game.

The Ravens defense overall has not been the defense we’ve come to expect in recent years. Teams are passing on the Ravens, which, with a limited rushing attack by the Browns, puts this game in the hands of Brady Quinn.

There really isn’t a right answer for the Browns at this point, Quinn or Derek Anderson. Neither of them is very good, and particularly with a subpar group of receivers, neither of them can expect much success at all.

In five games this season the Browns have failed to score a touchdown, and this could very well be game No. 6. The Ravens offense has been up and down, but they’ve faced a difficult schedule, and outside of the Bengals games they’ve topped 20 points every time out.

This one should be all Ravens, and you can probably even get to bed early on Monday night.

 

Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions (stats )

The Vikings are coming off their bye, which gave them two weeks to celebrate the big win at Lambeau Field over the Packers. Assuming they don’t suffer an extended hangover, they should be able to handle the Lions for a win Sunday.

The Lions actually jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Seahawks last week, but things went downhill quickly after that, with QB Matthew Stafford throwing five interceptions and questions raised about his relationship with star WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson later stated, “There is no problem with us. People are just blowing that out of proportion.”

I’ll buy that, and the two may put more emphasis on trying to connect on the field this week, but the Lions offense is just in over its head here. The Lions are allowing sacks way above the league average, and the Vikings are getting sacks way above the league average. Stafford is going to have a tough time staying vertical long enough to get the ball to Johnson more than 10 yards down the field.

Lions RB Kevin Smith was questionable but played last week, which is a plus, but against the Vikings’ strong run defense, expectations are low for him this week.

In terms of the Vikings offense, their low output for the season was 17 points at Pittsburgh, but otherwise they’ve scored 27 or more, including 30 or more in four of their last five games.

Surprisingly, RB Adrian Peterson has only topped 100 yards twice this season. The Lions held him to 92 yards on 15 carries in their first meeting this season back in Week Two. I’ll take the over this week for Peterson to top 100.

Can I actually do a Vikings game preview without mentioning QB Brett Favre? I guess not. Essentially, the Vikings have a lot of talent across the board, but unlike prior years the QB position is a big positive for them instead of a negative, and they are playing sound team football.

I still haven’t forgotten Favre’s potential for him to throw up a complete stinker of a game and get intercepted at inopportune times, but at this point it looks like the Vikings are just too much for the Lions.

History says the Vikings have beaten the Lions in all but two of their 19 head-to-head games this decade. Chalk up win No. 18 of 20 this week.

 

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (stats )

I do think RB Steven Jackson is going to have a good game against the Saints. The Saints are getting exposed against the run in recent weeks. Since losing DT Sedrick Ellis, the Saints have given up 151 yards on 20 carries to Michael Turner in Week Eight, and followed that up with 149 yards on 21 carries to DeAngelo Williams last week. Ellis has not practiced this week.

Usually when a team has a good chance to lose the rushing battle, you don’t want to put too much faith in them winning the game. Usually. The rest of this game is so lopsided in the Saints’ favor, expecting anything less than them being 9-0 at the end of the day is a shot in the dark.

Against top offenses, and some not so top offenses, the Rams are allowing 30-plus points per game. Only the Lions and Washington Redskins have been held under 20 points. As we are well aware, the Saints are a—if not the—top offense. They’ve scored 30 or more six times and 45 or more four times.

The Saints are using a balanced running and passing game to move the ball almost at will. They started slow out of the gate in each of the games against the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins in recent weeks. There are just too many options for QB Drew Brees to call upon for the Rams defense to account for. If the Saints score under 30 here, it will be a big surprise.

When the Rams have the ball, Jackson is the focus, but it took him eight weeks to finally find the end zone their last game for the first time, securing a win over the Lions. WR Donnie Avery is expected to play, which is a plus since he is the only halfway reliable receiver on the Rams.

The Saints’ front four are getting good pressure on opposing quarterbacks though, and the opportunistic defense now has seven touchdowns on the year. The Rams offense has allowed five such touchdowns. If we took just the Rams offense scoring against the Saints defense scoring, I wonder what an appropriate point spread line would be? It might be close to even.

The Saints still have some weaker teams in the upcoming schedule, so consider them a possible save candidate for survivor, but if you’ve already used the Ravens and Vikings and want to play it safe, lock up the Saints for a win this week.

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FFToday.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Survivor Picks Week Nine: Packers, Seahawks, and Falcons

It was role reversal last week in Arizona, with Jake Delhomme quarterbacking the Arizona Cardinals, and Kurt Warner taking charge of the Carolina Panthers. Delhomme went ahead and threw five interceptions, not unheard for him, and the Cardinals lost the game on a six-love turnover differential.

That wasn’t Delhomme? It was Warner? It must have been an out of body experience then, because going into that game we sure expected Delhomme to be more the INT-machine than Warner. The end result was a loss amongst my three picks from Week Eight , and simply some hope that you read the text, and picked one of the first two choices instead.

I did say I was “a little sketchy on backing the Cardinals in this game”, but amongst the available choices last week it still seemed like one of the safer bets to come through. How many times have we seen a team come off a big emotional win like the Cards did beating the New York Giants back in Week Seven, only to stink it up the very next week? Too many times to count, and the Cardinals fell right into that trip, and took me along with them.

The other two picks did come through, though. The San Diego Chargers allowed the Oakland Raiders to stay within striking distance all game, which further supports the Chargers poor running game, and run defense is making them little more than average this year, but a win is a win, as they say.

The Chicago Bears crushed the Cleveland Browns, 30-6. No surprise there, and nothing really to be proud of for Bears fans. If you own Matt Forte in your fantasy league, it is time to sell, sell, sell if you can convince a gullible owner that he’s “back”.

On to Week Nine, we have more bad teams on their bye this week, including the aforementioned Raiders, and Browns, plus the St. Louis Rams, and to a lesser extent (i.e. less bad), Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. Choices may be slim again, but lets see what we can do if you are still alive in your survivor pool heading into the second half of the season.

 

Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (stats )

Similar to how I assess the Chargers this year, the Packers look like a pretty good, but not elite team. For the most part they have destroyed weak teams in the league, like the Browns, Lions, and Rams. On the other hand they’ve lost to, but hung around with, top teams like the Vikings (twice), and Bengals.

Well, I think we know which category the Bucs fall into this season. With the Rams, and Tennessee Titans winning last week, the Bucs remain the lone winless team. In proposing to break the streak, the Bucs are going to roll out their third QB of the season this week, rookie Josh Freeman.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think Freeman is going to be an improvement over the prior two. This is a total team effort of poor play this season, on offense, and defense, so slotting in a new QB—a rookie who the team felt should be third string out of training camp—is not going to spark this team into a surprisingly productive offense.

And he definitely will not help the defense, which has been giving up a ton of yards on the ground to opposing rushers. Ryan Grant has been feeding off of weak teams this year. Expect 24 carries, or more, and over 100 yards for him.

The one issue I have backing the Packers is that QB Aaron Rodgers is still getting hit a ton. Last week the Packers-Vikings broadcasters relayed from coach Mike McCarthy that with the game he felt he called, Rodgers should not have taken so many sacks in the prior game against the Vikings. Maybe, but Rodgers still took another six sacks last week, so whether it is the play calling, or protection, or Rodgers holding the ball too long, it doesn’t really matter, the guy is getting beaten up.

When do those sacks turn into an injury where Rodgers misses time? When do those sacks turn into a fumble returned for a TD? It could be anytime.

The Packers’ passing game, when Rodgers can stay upright, is chugging along. It was nice to see Greg Jennings find the end zone last week after going through a bit of a drought, failing to score since Week One. They need him, because Donald Driver is dinged up, so James Jones would occupy his starting spot if Driver cannot play. Jones has the talent to be a decent replacement, but certainly the third, and fourth receiver spots get a little dire in this scenario. Jordy Nelson remains out with a knee injury.

Overall the Bucs are outmatched on offense, and defense, in this game, so even home field advantage will not save them from getting waxed by the Packers.

I understand the Bucs are going to wear their throwback creamsicle uniforms stirring memories of their winless 1976 season. Ah, memories. The throwbacks are, perhaps, very fitting for this season.

 

Seattle Seahawks over Detroit Lions (stats )

Talk about excitement, we’ve got a 2-5 team hosting a 1-6 team. Seattle’s division title hopes are fading fast, as they’ve fallen well behind the Cardinals, and San Francisco 49ers, but they should still have enough home pride to put away the Lions in this game.

Seattle has not looked good lately, losing 38-17 last week, and 27-3 back in Week Seven with their bye week sandwiched in between those games. At least they are losing to decent teams though, the now resurgent Cowboys, and the Cardinals, respectively.

Last week the Lions lost to the…Rams. Advantage: Seattle.

Part of Detroit’s current problem is injuries to key players. QB Matt Stafford returned to action last week, but without WR Calvin Johnson, who remains questionable this week. Making matters worse, second-year RB Kevin Smith is also banged up, and could sit out this game. Head coach Jim Schwartz is on the ultra-high end of paranoid when it comes to disclosing injuries, so we won’t have a great idea about each player’s availability until just before kickoff.

Seattle has had its share of injuries too, but not to players with as significant roles as Johnson and Smith to the Lions. Seattle has more options on offense for QB Matt Hasselbeck to spread the ball around to. This group includes T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who complained last week about not getting enough opportunities, so expect some force feeding the ball in his direction this week.

The Lions allowed opposing rushers to have solid games each of the past four, including two games over 120 yards to Steven Jackson, and Matt Forte. Detroit’s defense is allowing an adjusted yard per rush of 5.0 in recent weeks. That is terrible. Coupled with allowing 266 passing yards per game in the same time, this could be a big game for either the Seahawks’ passing game, RB Julius Jones rushing, or both.

The Seahawks have been decent against the run, but not so against the pass, which, again, could circle back to their opponents in recent weeks. Regardless, beyond Calvin Johnson there are no receiving threats on the Lions, so with, or without Johnson, the Lions passing game will be limited.

Final advantage for Seattle is home field, and the Lions travelling across the country for this one. Seattle may not dominate this matchup if the Lions come to play big, but more than likely Seattle grabs the win here.

 

Atlanta Falcons over Washington Redskins (stats )

The only thing I don’t like here is that Atlanta is coming off a short week, having played Monday, and losing against the still undefeated Saints (although the Falcons made it a little thrilling in the end). Oh, and the Redskins on the other hand are coming off their bye week. I guess that is two things, but two rather minor things really, that otherwise swing this game in favor of the Falcons.

One thing I will say for Jason Campbell is he does not throw many interceptions. Now as far as the Redskins offense scoring points, they don’t do that either. That is seven games, and seven times under 20 points scored.

The Redskins did bring in Sherman Lewis to call the offensive plays effective Week Seven against the Philadelphia Eagles, but it made little difference in that game with very short preparation time for Lewis. Now we really get to see if he can work some bingo magic with a couple weeks to prepare.

I’m afraid the problems with the Redskins are deeper rooted than offensive play calls. Campbell is strictly a game manager QB at best, and his receiving options are below average once the opposing team focuses attention on Santana Moss. Note TE Chris Cooley is out for this game, although Fred Davis looks like a decent replacement for Cooley. The Falcons secondary is their Achilles’ heal, but I don’t expect Campbell et al to be able to take advantage of it.

Clinton Portis is starting to show the many miles he’s put on his legs hitting over 20 carries just once so far this season. As a team, the Redskins averaged less than 95 yards rushing a game in their past five, and that is with some creampuffs on the schedule. The Falcons are average against the rush.

Will this be the first game the Redskins top 20 points? Unless they surprise us, it seems unlikely.

The Falcons sport a better QB Matt Ryan, although one who has been somewhat turnover prone as of late, better RB Michael Turner, and better receivers Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. This team has managed over 20 points a game each of its past four games, although the defense did chip in last week with a fumble recovery TD.

Turner has been struggling through the season a bit along the lines of Portis, but without the mileage excuse. Prior to last week’s 20 carry for 151 yards and one TD line, Turner had back-to-back games with only 30, and 50 yards. Turner really needs the game to be going their way, with sufficient carries, to crank out the yards. This should be one such game with the expected struggles of the Redskins offense.

Ryan needs to protect the ball better, and in doing that I think locking on Gonzalez more, not less as suggested by the Monday Night crew, will keep the offense moving.

All in all, the Redskins have played against some of the worst teams in the league this year, and still lost, or did not win at all convincingly. The Falcons are a good to very good team when they play to their potential. I wouldn’t pencil this in as an expected romp by the Falcons over the Redskins, but they are a safe bet for the straight win.

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FFToday.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Survivor Picks Week Eight: Chargers, Bears, and Cardinals

We got back on track in Week Seven with three picks and three easy wins. The Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and Indianapolis Colts combined to win 108-16 last week over the Cleveland Browns,Tampa Bay Bucs, and St. Louis Rams.

Other sharp picks noted in my survivor pool included the San Diego Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles, although really, the Eagles didn’t look exceptionally well beyond two huge plays by wideout DeSean Jackson. That was more than enough, because the Washington Redskins, as expected, continued to look down right awful on offense.

All in all, that was one of the easier weeks you could ask for in terms of survivor pool picking, which reinforces the prevailing trend of the 2009 NFL season; there are a lot of bad teams. Terrible teams, in fact. What happened to good old NFL parity?

Well, this week could bring it back to the forefront. From the group of teams we typically like to “pick on” for survivor pools, the Bucs, Kansas City Chiefs, and Redskins are all on a bye and the Rams and Detroit Lions play each other. The Browns are facing a team that just got completely walloped last week. The Raiders are playing the Chargers, so we’ll kick off Week Eight with that one.

San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (notes, stats )

I admit I actually thought the Chargers-Chiefs game last week was going to be somewhat close. The Chargers have not overly impressed me this season with the combination of terrible run defense since losing NT Jamal Williams for the season and uncharacteristic poor running game of their own.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs had started to show some life, hanging with Dallas to the end and winning at Washington in recent weeks. This was a division game and one that, statistically, the Chiefs were not that far off the mark from the Chargers heading into it.

The end result: Chargers win 37-7.

Also going back to last week, the Raiders were a somewhat tempting pick to upset the Jets. They had just beat the Eagles at home, holding them to a measly nine points. Was it a sign the defense turned a corner? The Jets were coming off a bad loss to the Bills in which they could do nothing right. Quarterback Mark Sanchez was a turnover machine, the team committed over a dozen penalties, and they lost DT Kris Jenkins for the season. 

The end result? Jets win 38-0. Or shall I say for the purpose of this write-up, Raiders lose 0-38.

Let’s not get too caught up in the lopsidedness of those respective scores, but in the grand scheme of things, we just know the Raiders are a bad team. We may not be able to entirely explain how they managed to beat the Eagles, but we do know they beat them badly.

As for the Chargers, they have some very good players, but I’m not ready to call them a very good team yet. Maybe just plain good and perhaps more aptly described as better than average. It is not like they aren’t capable of throwing up some stinkers now and again, but when your run defense and running game are problem spots, it will happen.

Looking at their season, however, the Chargers have really only lost to good teams – the Baltimore Ravens in Week Two, the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week Four, and the Denver Broncos in Week Six. I think it is the every other week nature of their season that really gives the impression that the Chargers haven’t gotten on track.

This is a rematch with the Raiders and the Chargers only narrowly escaped in Week One, 24-20, thanks to an efficient running game by the Raiders. Since that time, QB JaMarcus Russell appears to be regressing, getting benched last week after a 6-for-11, 61-yard, two interceptions, and a fumble performance.

The Raiders running game is now headed up by RB Justin Fargas with Darren McFadden still out and Michael Bush not living up to high (maybe that was just me) expectations. Fargas is a decent spot player, but the trickle down effect of having poor QB play and poor receiving options is limiting the running game for the Raiders.

Twenty is the most points the Raiders have scored all season, so to expect them to duplicate it or top it is a stretch.

Even when the running game does not do well, like most of the season, this Chargers offense is still finding the end zone. QB Philip Rivers has racked up over 250 yards every game and completed 60 percent of his passes each of the last two weeks, with no interceptions in four games.

Rivers has a good receiving core in Malcom Floyd, Antonio Gates, and in particular Vincent Jackson, who is working his way from being very good to entering the great category, with three 100-plus-yard receiving games and a TD in four games. Even though the Raiders have a solid secondary, with a little pressure on Rivers and a multitude of options, the Chargers offense will keep on churning.

This might even be a bit of a renaissance game for RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who has looked better the past two weeks, although he still hasn’t broken a long one yet. The Jets put up 265 yards rushing last week between Thomas Jones and rookie Shonn Greene.

The Chargers have never scored less than 20 and I don’t expect that to change this week; they should be on tap for 28 or more.

Pick the Chargers for the win here, which will then represent their 13th straight win over the Raiders, dating back to December 2003.

Chicago Bears over Cleveland Browns (notes, stats )

The Browns got manhandled last week, but who can really blame them with over a third of their players out, due mostly to the flu. No flu this week, but does it change anything?

The Bears were on the wrong end of a vendetta by ex-Bear and now Bengal, Cedric Benson, who crashed into and ran over his former teammates to the tune of 189 yards. The five TD passes by Carson Palmer didn’t help, either, as the Bears lost 45-10. Jay Cutler tossed three INTs and Matt Forte continued to struggle.

How much confidence can we really have in backing the Bears this week? Well, it is the Browns. Assuming the Bears still have visions of competing for a playoff spot and at 3-3, it is hard to imagine they don’t. This is a game the Bears need to win.

Quarterback Derek Anderson continues to start for the Browns even though he is less than deserving. There is some speculation that the Browns are keeping Brady Quinn on the bench to prevent paying him his big bonus. Head coach Eric Mangini disputes that, of course, but the theory appears reasonable. Anderson’s completed less than 50 percent of his passes in each of his last three starts, and has thrown for a grand total of 244 yards in those games. A small consolation is that he has kept his INT numbers down to only one per game.

The Browns best opportunity to control this game lands on the shoulders of RB Jamal Lewis, but he does appear to be slowing down with only 15 or fewer carries in four of five games played this year and a 3.4 yards per carry average. Lewis won’t be able to accomplish what a younger and highly-motivated Benson did to the Bears last week.

The Browns have scored 20 points twice this season and under 10 four times. The Bears defense is average, but enough to hold the Browns under 20.

Taking a look at the Bears offense, Cutler is in a word, erratic. He had a nice stretch of games from Weeks Two to Four, throwing seven TDs versus only one INT. In the other three games, including the last two, four TDs against nine INTs. Ouch.

Interestingly enough, the three games with the big INT numbers were all on the road. Or was it because they were playing against better teams, perhaps? It doesn’t matter, because the Browns are a bad road team and they will be traveling to Chicago for this one.

Forte has a nice opportunity to boost his numbers this week, which are way off from his rookie season. I’m not that confident he will, but the Packers’ Ryan Grant had his best outing of the season last week against the Browns.

Even with the up and down Bears, over 20 points should be possible. You can tell I’m not as confident in the Bears as the Chargers, which is why I dropped the Bears down to the second-ranked pick spot.

As with most Browns games, as long as returner Josh Cribbs is kept under control, then the Browns are going to have an extremely hard time winning a game; back the Bears for the win.

Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers (notes, stats )

This third choice was a tough one this week. I considered the Colts over the San Fransico 49ers, The New Orleans Saints over the Atlanta Falcons, and even the Dallas Cowboys over the Seattle Seahawks, but finally settled on this game.

I’m not that keen on backing the Cardinals after coming off a big victory over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football , because they still could be suffering a bit of a hangover from that game, but it is true what the commentators said; that coach Ken Whisenhunt has changed the culture in Arizona. Formerly a team without much confidence to go on the road and get a big win, they did just that at Giants Stadium and were impressive in doing so.

The Panthers lost to the Bills. Another improbable win for the Bills in which their opponent did a lot more wrong than the Bills did right. Just when it looked like the Panthers might be starting to get their act together, with back-to-back wins over the Bucs and Redskins, they fell back down last week.

One safety and one TD in the fourth quarter accounted for all of their scoring. QB Jake Delhomme threw three INTs, but hey, at least he finally got WR Steve Smith involved with six catches for 99 yards. Panther head coach John Fox has already stated Delhomme will continue to be the starter, which at this point is a bit of an indictment on backup Matt Moore. How bad is Moore that they won’t even trot him out there for a try?

At any rate, the Panthers’ ability to score goes through their running game, which hasn’t been all that this season except for a couple of flashes. One of the Cardinals’ strengths now is their run defense. They did pretty well against the Giants, although one could argue the Giants got away from the run earlier than they should have.

With the exception of Brandon Jacobs last week, the Cards have held every rusher they’ve faced to less than 70 yards. That doesn’t bode well for RB DeAngelo Williams. And of course, if the running game doesn’t click and the Panthers are forced to rely on Delhomme, then the Cards opportunistic secondary could be in for a good day. CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is practicing this week, but still a bit questionable with an ankle injury.

As for the Cardinals offense, we know what it is capable of doing in the passing game. I was really impressed with rookie Chris Wells last week. He looked big and powerful knocking back Giant defenders on his way to 67 yards on 14 carries and a TD.

Wells will continue to back up Tim Hightower due to ball security issues. Heck, both are prone to fumbling, but if Wells can get that taken care of, he’ll be an excellent player in this league. That won’t happen this week, but Wells has earned more carries. The Panthers have a below average run defense, so I would expect another solid day from Wells (assuming no fumbles).

Wide receiver Anquan Boldin is a question mark, as he was clearly hobbling in the Giants game. Even if he doesn’t go, Steve Breaston filled in admirably, as he did last week, and of course Larry Fitzgerald remains QB Kurt Warner’s top target. Fitzgerald didn’t even have a good game last week, including a couple of slips and falls, and a drop on a long pass out of the wildcat formation from Antrel Rolle. You won’t see a drop like that from him very often.

Like I said, I am a little sketchy on backing the Cardinals in this game, but they are at home, have been playing well, and statistically outmatch the Panthers on offense and defense.

The last time these teams faced off against each other was last year’s divisional playoff, in which Delhomme threw five INTs. Even if Wells/Hightower put the ball on the turf a couple times (hope not), Delhomme is a good bet to outdo them on the turnover front.

I’ll take the Cardinals for the win.

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FFToday.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Survivor Picks, Week Seven: Packers, Patriots, and Those Potent Colts

What a week last week. Reviewing my top three picks (if I must), the Steelers came through fine.

The Jaguars were behind the entire game until the fourth quarter, only to—soon after taking the lead—give the lead right back on an interception returned for a TD.

Then they got it back. Then with less than two minutes to go, they allowed the Rams to drive 69 yards to set up the game-tying field goal.

Finally, the Jags won in overtime. That is one soft defense to let the Rams do that to them. I hope you did pick the Jaguars and made it through, just for the satisfaction you know that you never have to pick them again.

And for the third pick, my first loser in weeks, the Jets lost in overtime to the Bills. Un-Bill-ievable.

You know, I actually did a last-second edit of the column last week. It went something like, “the only way the Bills win this game is if QB Trent Edwards gets knocked out of the game, Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez throws five INTs, the Jets take 14 penalties, incredibly key defensive star Kris Jenkins gets hurt, and they botch the snap on the game-winning FG in overtime.” Damn, if only I had kept that in.

The small silver lining was not putting the Eagles in the top three last week, responsible for many a survivor pool exit, but that was more pure luck than anything.

I didn’t know what to expect from the depleted Lions against the Packers. Amazingly, the Pack still gave up five sacks in a 26-0 win. Aaron Rodgers may not last the season, which could doom one of my fantasy teams.

All I can say about the most lopsided win of the week is that I just whiffed on the Patriots game. I reviewed the weather, and that didn’t play a huge part in shying away from that game.

I mentioned last week having lost complete faith in backing the Titans for a win, but I wasn’t quite ready to bet against them as one of the league doormats. I guess it is time.

Okay, enough grovelling, lets get on to this week.

 

Green Bay Packers over Cleveland Browns (stats )

This pick is less about the Packers and more about just how down and out the Browns are. Remember when head coach Eric Mangini was hailed as the next great football mind? Neither do I.

About all the Browns can hang their hats on right now is Josh Cribbs, KR/PR extraordinaire. The guy does it all. He throws passes, he led the team in rushing last week, lines up at WR and had a 98-yard kickoff return for a TD, the Browns’ only scoring of the first half. It wasn’t enough, and rarely will be.

The Browns did post their first and only win of the season two weeks ago at Buffalo, 6-3 in a snorefest. As noted above, the Bills are in terrible shape themselves, so that was no great accomplishment. Outside of that, the Browns have lost by double digits four times, although they did have a close three-point loss to the division rival Bengals during their last home game.

Now, the Packers themselves have not been terribly consistent. The offensive line works like a turnstile, and they are only 3-2. Looking down the stats, however, the Packers’ offense is more than doubling the point output of the Browns. The defense is above average against the run, pass, and points allowed. The Browns are on the other side of the ledger in all three categories.

This is a big-time mismatch. Concerns? Yes, two in fact. The Packers have a showdown rematch against the still undefeated Vikings the following week, so if ever there was a game to look past, this one against the Browns would be it for the Packers.

The other slight concern is the possibility the Browns do get their running game going with Jamal Lewis. We wouldn’t have expected it against the Steelers last week and it didn’t happen, but against the Pack, Lewis has the potential to do some damage.

However, as shown in the Bills game, even when Lewis gets a lot of carries and racks up the yards, the team is still not putting up points.

Okay, now I saved the best for last. The Browns have been ravaged by the flu this week. Check the early injury report. A ton of guys missed practice this week, mostly due to being sick. While they are slowly getting players back, how ready can this team be to face the Pack? Not very, I’d wager.

Home field advantage or not for the Browns, give me the Packers this week.

 

New England Patriots over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (stats )

Tom Brady is back! Well, maybe, maybe not. The Titans rolled out two rookie cornerbacks last week due to injuries to not just one, but both starting corners. There had to be more to it than that, though.

How exactly does a team give the opposition five possessions in one quarter, much less allow a TD on each one? Clearly, the Titans were allergic to the snow or someone spiked their clam chowder or something.

At any rate, Brady did look great, as did Randy Moss, as did Wes Welker, as did Laurence Maroney of all players. Maroney needs to play a more significant role going forward with Fred Taylor already out and now Sammy Morris also on the shelf. We’ll see if Maroney can live up to his previously high expectations.

For this week, it looks like he very well could. The Bucs are awful against the run. They allowed over 260 yards to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart last week, marking the third and fourth 100-yard rushers they’ve allowed this year. Clinton Portis and Brandon Jacobs just missed the cut at 98 and 92 yards, respectively.

Of course, even when a team does not run great against them, like the Eagles in Week Five, the passing game goes to town (McNabb 16-21, 264 yards and three TD). What we are led to believe here is the Pats will essentially be able to score at will against the Bucs. Not 59 points at will (I would hope), but 30+ is very possible.

The Pats’ defense has been somewhat better than I expected so far. Not stellar, but still keeping the points against in check even against good teams like the Ravens and Falcons, back-to-back home wins in Weeks Three and Four.

The Bucs’ offense is producing under 100 rushing yards per game and under 200 yards passing per game.

They’ve been better with raw QB Josh Johnson under center, but only marginally. After an early TD last week, the offense produced very little the rest of the way.

The remaining 14 points came via a kickoff return TD and an INT return TD; and this against a Panthers defense that has looked less than stout all season. The Patriots should be able to handle the Bucs’ offense.

The good thing about the Pats for survivor pools is that when they are on, they are on.

The team hasn’t been overly impressed with its own start to the season. They head into their bye next week, and after that, it is a tough stretch with three division games (Dolphins twice, Jets), the Colts, and the Saints. If you still have the Pats available, lock and load this week.

Oh, and this game is being played in London, England, so it is not technically a home game for the Bucs.

 

Indianapolis Colts over St. Louis Rams (stats )

The Rams did take it to overtime against the Jaguars last week, showing better spunk than I thought they had in them, but the Colts won’t be in a position where the Rams will feel they can steal a win.

The Colts’ offense is producing on all cylinders. The additions of rookies RB Donald Brown and WR Austin Collie, and development of WR Pierre Garcon, have kept this train rolling right along without former Colt Marvin Harrison and WR Anthony Gonzalez still out with injury.

They’ve scored 27 or more points in four straight games, and Peyton Manning has five straight 300+ yard passing games under his belt.

The Rams have only allowed one 300+ yard passer this year, last week to David Garrard, but the reason is because in most games, the opposing team hasn’t needed to pass very much at all with the game already in the bag. It is a good bet Manning will extend his streak this week.

The Rams are way below average against the rush and pass, so a balanced offense like the Colts’ have should be able to put 30 up on the board.

When I run my weekly stat comparisons, I do a little adjustment, pulling out the high and low number from the prior six weeks. Well, according to those adjusted stats, the Rams have scored just 8.5 points a game, and the Colts have allowed only 13.0 points per game. Wow. That is a huge discrepancy.

We have to discount those pure numbers a little bit. Rams backup QB Kyle Boller accounted for a bunch of those low games for the Rams’ output. QB Marc Bulger returned partway through their game two weeks ago and started last week. He looked decent in both outings.

Unfortunately, WR Donnie Avery, aka Mr. Glass, accounted for both Bulger passing TDs in that span, and he got injured (again) against the Jaguars, forcing him to miss some practice this week. He looks like a gametime decision. Considering he is the only halfway reliable receiver on the Rams, this does not bode well for their offense.

The Rams still have RB Steven Jackson of course, racking up yards but not finding the end zone, because of an otherwise stagnant offense. Expect somewhat of the same here.

The Colts statistically are good against the run, but haven’t been overly tested, either. Maurice Jones-Drew and Ronnie Brown had big games against the Colts early in the season. Jackson could have a good game, but it still won’t be enough.

Of mild concern here is if the Colts come in rusty off their bye week, but playing inside the home of the former Greatest Show on Turf cannot be vastly different than playing on their own home fast track. Take the Colts with confidence.

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FF Today.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Survivor Picks Week Six: Steelers, Jets and Jaguars

Whew, that was a close one last week ! I put the Panthers in my top three survivor picks and they just barely squeaked by the Redskins, 20-17, including overcoming a 15-point second half deficit.

Thankfully, those of you who followed my Panthers advice survived the week and don’t have to use the Panthers again.

I may never recommend them again. Going into the season, we expected teams like the Panthers and Titans to be much better than their current record.

I’ve tried to be patient to not discount my preseason expectations too quickly. These teams are better than they have shown, and should be desperate for a win and ready to turn it around.

Or at least that is what I’ve been telling myself. We’re now five weeks in and some of these teams continue to look lost, a shell of their former selves. The Panthers and Titans fall squarely into this category.

Confidence is low backing either of these teams, so until they put up a string of better games, stay away, no matter who they are playing against.

The other picks last week came through with flying colors. The Giants had a scrimmage with the Raiders, winning 44-7, and the Eagles beat the Bucs 33-14.

The Vikings were also a great pick last week if you backed them in your survivor pool, and the Steelers came through (maybe a little too close for comfort) against the Lions.

Now let’s get to the picks for this week.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns (stats )

I’m still baffled reviewing the stats from Cleveland’s 6-3 win over the Buffalo Bills last week. It doesn’t help I’m a Bills fan. Baffled is the tamest of many adjectives I can think of to describe what transpired in that game.

QB Derek Anderson completed just two passes in 17 attempts. Two! Even in a blizzard we would expect more than two completions, or at least fewer attempts. It is amazing that they won the game thanks to the Bills’ own ineptitude.

I was a little leery about backing the Steelers last week, which kept them out of my top three. They did win the game over the Lions in Detroit, but it ended as a one-score difference and the Lions kept scrapping through it to the end.

Here is the thing: the Lions are a lot more dangerous team than the Browns. With all due respect to a now healthy RB Jamal Lewis, the Browns’ offense is a mess, managing less than 10 points in three of their five games.

Anderson will continue as the starter. Braylon Edwards was shipped off to the Jets, leaving the Browns with a receiving corps maybe just a slight notch above the weak group wearing silver and black out in Oakland.

The Steelers defense hasn’t been as stout as we’re used to, but they should be able to feast on Cleveland. One potential trouble spot for the Steelers is that they lost DE Aaron Smith for the season.

Ah, but ace safety Troy Polamalu returns this week. His presence puts them head and shoulders above the defense averaging 20 points against this season.

In terms of the Steelers offense against the Browns defense, this is also a big mismatch. Prior to Buffalo, the Browns allowed 23 or more points every game. With the inept offense, how can the defense possibly keep the points against number down?

They can’t. The Steelers have scored 20 or more for three straight games, as the passing game in particular is looking good.

While it is possible the Steelers could look past the Browns with the Vikings up next for them, that isn’t something a quality coach like Mike Tomlin is going to let happen.

It is a division game (normally an avoid situation for survivor pools), but in this case the matchup looks so lopsided, the Steelers are a strong play.

The Steelers have won 11 straight against the Browns. Chalk up No. 12 this Sunday.

 

New York Jets over Buffalo Bills (stats )

We hit one half of the Cleveland-Buffalo train wreck from last week; time to pick on the team that actually lost the game, the Bills.

The Bills’ offense can’t get itself going with QB Trent Edwards refusing to throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. Fans are rightfully calling for head coach Dick Jauron to get fired sooner than later. It very likely will happen. It is just a question of when.

The Jets generated a lot of excitement early on by winning their first three games, including a 16-9 win over the Patriots in week two. However, things are cooling off as the Jets have lost their last two games against the Saints and Dolphins.

It isn’t that the Jets played poorly in those games, but they made some mistakes and lost to two good football teams.

So who do I think they are going to take their frustration out on? The Bills are standing in the way, ready to get run over.

Buffalo is averaging just 13.7 points a game, while the Jets defense is giving up only 16.7 per game. The average points per game scored across the NFL is 21.2, so we’re looking at a big advantage to the Jets here.

The Jets will bring pressure on Edwards, resulting in check-down passes faster than you can say Marshawn Lynch. Otherwise, Edwards is going to get roughed up, thanks to poor protection from his offensive line.

Expect the same as we’ve seen so far, which is little or no passes to outside threats Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. Jets star CB Darrelle Revis’ talents may be wasted in this game.

Except for the Saints game, rookie QB Mark Sanchez has done well to protect the ball and do just enough to keep defenses honest from keying on the running game.

Jerricho Cotchery is out this week, but the arrival of Braylon Edwards paid immediate dividends against the Dolphins, a game in which he barely had time to prep and learn the offensive terminology.

One thing that does help the Buffalo defense this week is the probable return of S Donte Whitner and MLB Paul Posluszny, although the Bills did lose LB Kawika Mitchell for the season last week.

Another division game, but another lopsided affair with the Jets more skilled on both sides of the ball, and more fire from their coach to get back in the win column. Take the Jets.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars over St. Louis Rams (stats )

How does one decide to support a team that lost its game 41-0 a week ago? Well, a few reasons apply here.

First, the Jaguars unexpectedly deactivated their best receiver, Mike Sims-Walker, last week less than an hour before kickoff for breaking a team rule. There is some motivation for Sims-Walker to redeem himself this week.

After that dismal performance in Seattle, Maurice Jones-Drew went on a tirade about the poor play of the Jags offense, including how he was used as little more than a high-priced decoy. Think he’ll see some significant workload this week?

Put up or shut up time for Jones-Drew, and good timing, because facing the Rams’ soft defense should result in a big game for Pocket Hercules.

Third, QB David Garrard has been remarkably better at home this season than on the road. Sure it is a small sample size, but in two home games he has over 600 yards, 5 TD and 1 INT compared to just 524 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT (1 rushing TD) in three road games. Whatever the reason, Garrard is a lot more comfortable at home.

Fourth, we have former Ram and current Jag Torry Holt, likely keen to have a big game against his former team.

Call that last one a hunch, but with the Rams defense allowing 35 or more points in each of their last three games, this all adds up to what should be a good rebound game by the Jaguars offense.

As for the Rams offense against the Jags defense, the Rams did replace Kyle Boller with Marc Bulger at QB last week, and Bulger will start this week. That is a boost to the Rams.

The receivers are still weak overall on the Rams. WR Donnie Avery showed some life last week finishing with 5 receptions for 87 yards and a TD (from Bulger), but the game was already out of sight at that point. As long as the Jags neutralize Avery, there really is no receiving threat on the Rams.

The Jags defense has been good against the run, and they will need to be as RB Steven Jackson continues to be the Rams biggest offensive threat.

Jackson keeps grinding out the yards but has yet to find the end zone yet. If Jags LB Justin Durant, currently questionable, does not play, then that helps Jackson.

Overall though, this one points to the Jags. They have a near complete statistical advantage over the Rams, with home field advantage and motivation to wipe the Seattle loss from their memories.

The Jaguars are generally a team I don’t have a ton of confidence in for survivor pools, but this week looks like a good time to take them and get them out of the way.

Mike MacGregor created the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy fantasy football and fantasy baseball draft tools, plus he developed various features and sports pools found at FF Today.com and MyOfficePool.ca. Mike owns and operates MyOfficePool.ca .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

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