NFL: Packers-Lions Preview

Green Bay will be visited by the Lions Sunday at 10 a.m. PDT. On the surface, this appears to be an easy victory for the Packers for many reasons:

1. The Lions’ last trip to Lambeau was their record-setting 16th loss, ensuring they would become the league’s worst-ever team on record.
2. Green Bay is 15-2 in the last 17 meetings between the teams, and has not lost a home game since 1991.
3. Green Bay is coming off a bye week, giving them a huge advantage. (Why does the league match teams that have not had a bye with ones that have?)
4. The Packers are 2-2 with their only losses being to an unbeaten team and one with one loss…to an unbeaten team. Meanwhile, the Lions are 1-4.
5. Detroit is unsettled at the most key position, quarterback—either they will play an injured rookie or a veteran who has never been the same since he suffered a serious injury four years ago. Green Bay, on the other hand, boasts the eighth-rated passer in the league.

I could go on, but those are the highlights. So why is there fear in my eyes? (You can’t see them, but trust me, it’s there!)

Well, part of it is sheer paranoia: The last thing I need after dealing with all the apologists of the former quarterback henceforth known as The Traitor is another reason to diss Rodgers before the inevitable late-season collapse of that player allows me to throw it in their face.

But part of it is legit. For one thing, the Lions are much-improved despite their record, and infinitely according to it. And the Packers offensive line is, well, offensive: 20 sacks in four games, most in the league.

To add injury to insult, Mark Tauscher is not ready to return, Jason Spitz and Scott Wells are questionable, and Chad Clifton and Daryn Colledge are probable.

If you are scoring at home, that covers all five positions wherein the best player for the position is either out or will not be at his best.

Only Tauscher started off the season with an injury, and the line gave up five sacks in the first game when the other four were healthy.

Here is how the teams match-up:

 

Packers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense: advantage, Green Bay

Despite the sacks yielded, Green Bay has the 12th-ranked passing offense at 241 yards per game. The quarterback and receiving corps are near-elite status, easily ranking in the top quarter of the NFL.

The Lions, meanwhile, have generated only ten sacks and rank 27th in the league in yielding about 245 yards per game.

 

Packers rush offense vs. Lions rush defense: even

Detroit gives up 113 yards per game, putting them 21st in the NFL. The Packers gain almost 100 yards per game, ranking 22nd.

Both teams’ stats are hurt by frequency of rush attempts—Green Bay rarely ran the ball against Cincinnati or Minnesota, and the Lions have faced a number of additional carries late in games as teams were trying to milk the clock.

 

Lions pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: advantage, Green Bay

Detroit generates almost 220 yards through the air per game so far, getting them barely into the top half of the league (16th) despite the score necessitating more passing than usual.

Meanwhile, Green Bay gives up about 223 yards per game, a mediocre ranking of 17th that would seem to suggest the teams are even.

However, they generate turnovers as well as anyone in the game (most of which come in the passing game), and they are more likely than any team to turn those into defensive scores: Last year, the defense led the league in scoring, and this year it has spearheaded the team to the top of the league in turnover ratio and generated two scores already.

Meanwhile, Detroit is 24th in turnover ratio and likely starting an injured rookie—they might do well to go with Culpepper, who has 14 TDs since his last pick against the Packers.

Making matters worse, their best player, Calvin Johnson, is questionable with a knee injury.

 

Lions rush offense vs. Packers rush defense: even

The Packers have faced excellent backs so far—Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, and Stephen Jackson are second, third, and fifth in the league in rushing, and Matt Forte is no slouch, either (17th in the league, due in part to the Bears’ bye week).

Yet Green Bay fared well against both Peterson and Forte, holding each to just 55 yards on 25 carries.

Nevertheless, they rank just 20th at 112.2 allowed per game. Detroit has averaged 103.2 per contest (19th in the league) despite having to lean more on passing late in games.

 

Special Teams: slight advantage, Detroit

The Lions have one of the best kickers in the history of the game in Jason Hanson, who has missed only one field goal (in the 40-49 range). Meanwhile, Mason Crosby has missed one in that range, one in the 50-plus range, and an extra point. Both kickers are good on kickoffs.

Punting is also an advantage for the Lions, if only because of coverage—Jeremy Kapinos has an average that is 3.5 yards superior, but the Lions punt coverage allows 6.5 fewer yards per return.

Kick returns and coverage does heavily favour the Packers, however, as they average 6.7 more yards per return than their opponents while the Lions average seven fewer.

 

Intangibles: advantage, Green Bay

The Packers do have more pressure on them in this game, but it is because the Lions have lower expectations.

That may manifest itself in not believing you will win as well as not knowing how to finish and not having as much drive.

The Packers are at home, have a chance to reaffirm they will contend, and have the Lions’ number.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Detroit 16

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Green Bay Packers: Ted Thompson Must Be Held To a Higher Standard

If things do not change, Ted Thompson should be on his way out the door.

I don’t know about you, but they expect me to perform my job well in order to keep it. We cannot accept lower than that from the GM of the greatest franchise in sports.

And no, I am not one of those who blames Thompson for the departure of a petty prima donna who quit on us and than decided to be spiteful to all of us in his quest to get back at Thompson for not scrapping the future to take him back. Not that Teddy could not have handled it better, but he obviously made the right choice.

I will blame the man for not adding that one extra player to our roster in 2007 who could have made that one extra play that gets us into the Super Bowl, possibly avoiding the divorce if we win it. Did any reasonable person really expect the team to go 13-3 before that season started? Than how could TT be expected to know we were ahead of schedule on our rebuild?

But I do blame him for many other things:

1. Making no significant free agent moves since signing Charles Woodson in 2006. The following first-tier players off the top of my head were available at positions of need this year, with plenty of money to sign two of them: Levi Jones, Orlando Pace, Bart Scott, Greg Ellis, Cris Canty, and Igor Olshansky.
2. Not even signing second-tier free agents at positions of need, such as Grady Jackson (DT), when the team is obviously close to contention.
3. Supposedly the reason why Thompson he is carrying tens of millions in cap space, so why are there so many Packers whose contracts are up at the end of this season?
4. Not protecting his franchise quarterback—signing Mark Tauscher is a step in the right direction, but this is still the worst offensive line in the NFL.
5. Some poor draft picks, particularly players taken too high or at positions that are not of need.

Let’s examine just the biggest draft mistakes I can recall of the top of my head:

1. In 2008, we already had a deep and talented receiving corps but needed defensive back help coming into the 2008 draft, but TT trades down to take Jordy Nelson. 
2. 2008: Pat Lee was supposed to step into the backfield immediately as a nickel or dime back, and has yet to make any impact on the team—largely because of injuries, a theme on this list.
3. 2007: James Jones is projected to be no higher than a fifth-round pick by any publication I saw, but Thompson takes him in the third round, thereby passing up on 64 players who might have helped the team more than those he drafted post-Jones.
4. 2007: Justin Freakin’ Harrell was projected as a late first-round pick and had a history of some injury problems. Not surprisingly, he has played in just 13 games in his two-plus seasons, has 28 career tackles, and is currently on injured reserve.

Lest you think these are indicative of a terrible drafter, 15 of his 23 draft picks from 2006 and 2007 are still on the team. Four players drafted four years ago are also still here, and every player from 2008 and 2009. Here some of Ted’s biggest successes by round:

1. Aaron Rodgers—’nuff said
2. Nick Collins and Greg Jennings are Pro Bowl players
3. JerMichael Finley looks like the team’s tight end of the future
4. Brady Poppinga, a starter for most of his career
5. There is no standout from this round (or the seventh)
6. Johnny Jolly, the Packers best defensive lineman so far this season

That is a fair amount of talent form the bottom half of the draft—there are six starters and three other significant players from that group. Even among the first two rounds, there is a lot of talent—seven of Thompson’s ten picks in these two rounds prior to this spring are starters, and only one (Terrence Murphy, WR, 2005 second-round pick) is not on the team.

But the bottom line is results. 2005 (4-12) can hardly be blamed on Thompson, since it was Mike Sherman’s horrible drafting and the team’s aging roster (leading to injuries) that led to that disaster. In 2006, he did a great job rebuilding the team quickly (8-8), and in 2007 earned NFL Executive of the Year by a vote of his peers for the Packers surprising 13-3 season.

Last season, however, the Packers fell to 6-10, dropping Thompson’s record as GM back under .500 making him just 27-21 in the post-Sherman era. While injuries plagued the team, part of the responsibility for that has to fall on the team’s GM, the authority in everything from the players taken who may be injury-prone, to the coaching staff that exposes or fails to condition players, to the grounds crew who might have poor field condition.

Ever wonder why the team has had so many more injuries than other teams over the past two seasons? Ever notice they happen more often at home?

This season, the Packers have only two injuries in their two road games but five in two home games. I never assume anything is coincidence, and neither should Thompson.

The Packers are more woven into the fabric of their society than any other NFL team, and literally owned by fans. (And by literally, I do not mean a more-emphasized figuratively, like when Ron Jaworski said “Peyton Manning is literally on fire” so far this season. I literally mean literally!) If the fans start calling for more accountability from Thompson, his job will be on the line.

Ted, you made your bed, now you have to lie in it. If this team does not finish over .500, you should join the unemployment line that so many of your fans are in.

Next season, you have to spend some of that cash to get us to the playoffs, or suffer the same fate. Unless you wanna roll the dice that you can win on a budget again—it’s your butt, so it’s your call.

 

I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes.

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Packers-Vikings: Assessing and Dissecting the Packers’ Performance

In my preview of this game, I talked about how the media was focusing on the matchup between The Traitor and The Understudy. Meanwhile, the real matchup was the Packers sorry offensive line and the Vikings elite defensive line.

I was half-wrong—both were the story.

Aaron Rodgers and The Traitor dueled it out, with both registering passer rating well over 100. Rodgers had the lower percentage (.703 vs. .774) and just two scores to counter his first two turnovers of the season; The Traitor had three TDs and no picks. This led to a lower rating, but he also threw for 113 more yards in just six more attempts.

However, the Packers let him get sacked an astounding eight times for 42 yards. For the second year in a row, Rodgers was sacked for a safety in Minnesota.

Jared Allen alone had 4.5 sacks, mostly attributable to Darryn Colledge, who was filling in for the injured Chad Clifton at left tackle. It is no small wonder that the Packers are working out former right tackle Mark Tauscher to see if he has recovered enough from his knee injury to play. (The Vikings allowed no sacks.)

Here is how the Packers ranked by unit:

 

Quarterback: A-

Two of the sacks were attributable to Rodgers holding onto the ball too long. As I mentioned, he had his first turnover, but still only one against a pretty good team. His 384 yards were 56 better than his previous career high in week two against Detroit last season. And he did it all while running for his life.

 

Running Backs: B+

The Packers ran the ball for only 82 yards, but primarily because they ran it only 17 times. That is a 4.8 yards average against the defense that has been the best in the league over the past three seasons against the run. Ryan Grant had 11 carries for 51 yards (4.6 average) and four catches for 50 yards (12.5) to continue his improvement in the passing game. DeShawn Wynn had three touches for 21 yards and John Kuhn two for five.

 

Receivers: A-

They got open quickly and made plays after the catch, with only one drop I can recall.

Donald Lee turned a screen pass into a 16-yard gain by pulling away from, splitting, and hurdling defenders; he also had three other catches for 12 more yards. JerMichael Finley’s performance (six catches for 128 yards and a touchdown) was extraordinary, however, making me renew my plea to just make him the team’s starting tight end.

The corps showed depth, with Jordy Nelson had three catches for 47 yards and the other score, and James Jones having a 34-yard reception. Starting wide receivers Donald Driver and Greg Jennings had four for 55 and three for 31, respectively.

 

Offensive Line: F

No team has ever won anything significant with a line this bad, and any player’s sacks accumulated against this line should not be counted. True, they were up against arguably the best defensive line in football (thanks to a Vikings fan getting to overrule the league policy on banned substances!), but they have to do better than this (20 sacks in four games).

Defensive Line: A-

In a 3-4, the defensive line is responsible for gap control. They occupy blockers and let the linebackers get the sacks and tackles. Yet the five linemen who played had ten tackles and six assists, and should receive most of the credit for holding the best running back in the league to 55 yards on 25 carries (2.2-yard average)—and 63 yards on 30 carried overall—as well as some credit for Peterson’s fumble.

 

Linebackers: C-

Sure, this unit forced and recovered a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, and the five players generated 19 tackles and 14 assists. But there were no sacks and no other turnovers, and the backs and tight ends accounted for 11 of the Vikings 24 catches and 87 of their 271 yards.

 

Defensive Backs: C+

Once again, this stout unit (three Pro Bowl players) had mixed results. They had 15 tackles and an assist (led by Al Harris’ six and one, respectively), but gave up an average of 16.3 yards per catch and nearly 200 yards overall to the Vikings wide receivers. More importantly, they failed to generate a turnover against the most prodigious turnover machine in NFL history. 

 

Special Teams: C-

Mason Crosby hit his only field goal attempt and both extra points, and put two of his six kicks into the endzone, resulting in one touchback; two of his four kicks that did not go into the endzone were onside kicks. The Vikings returns were poor, as well, averaging just 17 yards with none of 20-plus. By contrast, Green Bay averaged a solid 24-plus yards on five returns.

The punt team was not so good, however, with just a 30-yard net because of 24- and 18-yard returns allowed. The Packers punt returns were even worse—two for no yards.

 

The bottom line, however, is that I was encouraged by the Packers play in this one. The offensive line and new defense will only get better. The Traitor will only get worse as the season wears down his old arm.

Yet the Vikings only secured victory against the Packers in their final minute on their home field. Meanwhile, the Bears only lost to the Packers because of a horrible game by their quarterback.

This division will be interesting well into December, and that should make any football fan salivate.

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Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings: The Traitor Awaits!

Pull out all the stops!

This game is for the NFC North lead, bragging rights between two rivals, and a memorandum on two quarterbacks.

Except the game really means none of those things.

No one cares who takes the division lead a quarter of the way into the season. What matters is who is standing in that position in January.

Bragging rights tend to be more significant for the team that wins the second game of the head-to-head. Sure, the winner of this game can brag for a few weeks, but the winner of the second game will have almost a year.

Besides, at one point, Dennis Green’s Vikings went 9-5 against the Packers, but won only two division titles to the Packers’ three. The Packers had a Super Bowl title and were 8-4 in the playoffs, while the Vikings won only one playoff game.

Which team had more to boast about?

Finally, this game is absolutely not a memorandum on the quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers has outperformed Brett Favre in the first 19 games of his career, and may well win ten times as many games for the remainder of it.

It would be no more fair to compare the two in this game alone- than it would to compare them for the years after “The Traitor” finally does retire- and only Rodgers is still winning games.

This one game will be won or lost as a team.

Too bad for Rodgers and Packers fans, because Green Bay simply does not match up well in this one.

Packers pass offense vs. Vikings pass defense: Slight advantage, Minnesota

The Vikings do not have a very good secondary, and the Packers have a deep and dangerous receiving corps. The Packers have last year’s sixth-rated, and this year’s eighth-rated passer, making this seem to be a clear edge for the Packers.

Except for one thing: Green Bay also has one of the worst offensive lines in the history of the NFL, especially with left tackle Chad Clifton out injured. With the pressure coming from one of the NFL’s premier front-fours, Aaron Rodgers may be lucky to survive, much less thrive.

Packers rush offense vs. Vikings rush defense: Huge advantage, Minnesota

The front four of the Vikings is even more stout against the run, than they are rushing the passer, with two of their three Pro Bowl players getting that recognition for run-stuffing.

This team led the league in rush defense over the past two seasons, and are facing an offense that has struggled to run the ball primarily because of the poor offensive line play.

Vikings pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: Huge advantage, Green Bay

The Packers boast three Pro Bowl players in the secondary and have forced more turnovers than any team but the New Orleans Saints; with one fewer game played.

The player they are facing is well-known to them, and also a prodigious turnover machine, committing more of them than anyone in the history of the game.

Green Bay’s pass rush is also much-improved over last season, with its return to health and the implementation of the 3-4 defense wreaking more havoc on pass protections.

While the Vikings line is solid, it will struggle in this department unless the Vikings run the ball so well, as to keep the defense from being able to effectively pass rush.

Vikings rush offense vs. Packers rush defense: Huge advantage, Minnesota

Unfortunately for the Packers, the Vikings will run the ball well. Adrian Peterson makes even the best defenses look pedestrian, and his power running style attacks the 3-4 defense better than most.

While the Packers have improved enough in this department to be in the middle of the league, the Vikings may be the best running team around, making this an extreme mismatch.

Special Teams: Advantage, Packers

Green Bay is struggling in this department, with Mason Crosby playing inconsistent, and coverage and return units being unspectacular. Punting has been better than expected, but nothing to lay ones hopes on.

But the Vikings are the worst team in the league in covering punts.

Last year, they gave up two touchdown returns in one game against the New Orleans Saints, and one each in the two games against Green Bay. They already have given up big returns this year.

Their kick coverage is mediocre-at-best, and their return games no better. They do have a reliable kicker, but he isn’t good at 50-plus yards or on kickoffs, and their punting game is only above average.

Intangibles: Advantage, Green Bay

The pressure is on the Vikings to win this one. If they lose, the Packers will be unbeaten in the division and own the tie-break over the Vikings, with Minnesota having to win in Green Bay to even things up.

The Packers are expected to lose, making this like playing with house money.

Also, Brad Childress is on the hot seat and Mike McCarthy is not; Mac is 5-1 against his rival counterpart. The Traitor will likely try to win this game on every play, bringing out his worst.

Prediction: 27-16 Vikings

The game will just not be in enough jeopardy to count on The Traitor losing it for Minnesota. The Packers will struggle to do anything offensively to make this one in doubt in the fourth quarter.

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NFL Week Three Power Poll and Predictions

First, how I rank all 32 teams:

1. New York Giants—my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl has finally gotten to the top of the power poll, thanks to the losses of the Steelers and Patriots.
2. Atlanta Falcons—their defense looks better than expected so far.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers—despite the one loss, they are the best team on paper.
4. New Orleans Saints—I am regretting wimping out on picking them to win the NFC South.
5. Baltimore Ravens—unbeaten, but have not played anyone of consequence.
6. Minnesota Vikings—have even sorrier strength-of-victories than the Ravens.
7. New York Jets—could Sanchez already be a quality NFL starter?
8. Indianapolis Colts—barely got either win over mediocre-at-best opposition.
9. San Francisco Forty-Niners—actually played the toughest schedule of the unbeaten teams.
10. New England Patriots—look to have more problems on both sides of the ball than it appeared in preseason.
11. Chicago Bears—one bad Jay Cutler performance from being a top-tier team.
12. San Diego Chargers—still a dangerous team with balance, they have started off badly both years under Norv Turner before finishing strong.
13. Dallas Cowboys—lost a tough opener in their new stadium, but played well against the league’s top team.
14. Tennessee Titans—how does an 0-2 team make the top half of the league? Tough losses, a great team on paper, and an experienced coach.
15. Arizona Cardinals—still have the most dangerous passing attack, and it may be getting on track.
16. Philadelphia Eagles—suffer in the poll from the uncertain health of Donovan McNabb.
17. Washington Offensively Named Ones—how does a team with an offensive name have no offense?
18. Buffalo Bills—a surprise this high, but were one boneheaded play from being 2-0.
19. Seattle Seahawks—may be getting bitten by last year’s injury bug.
20. Houston Texans—still have not won when the pressure was on.
21. Miami Dolphins—they have been in both losses and against pretty good competition.
22. Green Bay Packers—see Seahawks, plus add a horrible offensive line.
23. Denver Broncos—better than expected, but just lack the pieces.
24. Oakland Raiders—two competitive games, with the loss coming against a very good Chargers squad. But can JaMarcus Russell throw on target?
25. Cincinnati Bengals—until they put some consistency together, one must assume last week was a fluke.
26. Carolina Panthers—they are good on paper, but in the games played on the field they have been horrible.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars—more competitive in their losses than one might expect, but still a bottom-tier team until they win one.
28. Kansas City Chiefs—Matt Cassell is not so great without Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, but he’s played two good defenses.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—how soon do they turn the reigns over to Josh Freeman?
30. Detroit Lions—look like they have more offense than last season.
31. Cleveland Browns—two seasons ago obviously was a fluke now.
32. St. Louis Rams—no pass rush, no pass blocking, and not one Pro Bowl calibre player.

Now for my picks for the week (home team in CAPS), with the lowest being the least sure to win and the highest being the most:

1. SEAHAWKS over Bears
2. CARDINALS over Colts
3. Titans over JETS
4. PATRIOTS over Falcons
5. CHARGERS over Dolphins
6. RAIDERS over Broncos
7. COWBOYS over Panthers
8. Saints over BILLS
9. Offensively Named Ones over LIONS
10. VIKINGS over Forty-Niners
11. TEXANS over Jaguars
12. EAGLES over Chiefs
13. Steelers over BENGALS
14. Packers over RAMS
15. Giants over BUCCANEERS
16. RAVENS over Browns

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NFL: Green Bay Packers-St. Louis Rams Preview

Aaron Rodgers has spent much of the regular season running for his life. In the two games so far, the left defensive end—the primary responsibility of right tackle Allen Barbre—has recorded seven sacks (three by other linemen).

Overall, the team has yielded ten—three fewer than the entire 2007 season when the Packers went to the NFC Championship Game.

Things could get worse before they get better: Chad Clifton, the offensive line’s only solid starter, is out with an ankle injury. Fortunately for the Packers, they face one of the few teams that may not be able to take advantage of this weakness—St. Louis only have one sack in two games, tied for second-worst in the league.

This has been a source of anguish for the many people who picked the Packers to go deep into the playoffs, including a significant number of national pundits (Mike Ditka, Howie Long, and Michael Strahan to name a few) picking them to make the Super Bowl. It is making even those of us picking them to win the division look shaky, and has been a source of pride for Vikings fans.

Ted Thompson must get help for this offensive line (and soon) or he should be fired. This is too promising a season and the Packers have too much salary cap room because of this penny-pincher to let it go awry while risking the safety of the franchise quarterback.

But enough of my soapbox—let’s look at this week’s game according to the matchups:

 

Packers’ passing attack vs. Rams’ pass defense: big advantage, Packers

The one weakness the Packers have cannot be exploited by the Rams. Because of the ten allowed sacks, the Packers have gained just 376 yards in the air so far. However, the Rams have yielded 516 despite playing a poor passing team last week in Washington and being blown out against Seattle (i.e. a team looking to grind out clock).

We know that Green Bay have a good passing game from its top-ten finish last year. They have too good a quarterback and too deep receiving corps not to take advantage when Rodgers actually has time against this anemic pass rush.

 

Packers’ rushing attack vs. Rams’ rushing defense: slight advantage, Packers

Green Bay have gained just 164 yards on the ground, and that is not because they have had to scrap the running game early. However, the Rams have given up 292 yards, and while those numbers are inflated because of playing from behind, they gave up almost five yards per carry against a very mediocre Seattle running game when they knew what was coming.

 

Rams’ passing attack vs. Packers’ pass defense: advantage, Packers

The Rams have gained just 289 yards through the air despite playing from behind. However, it should be noted they faced an above average and very good defense, and we know they have a good quarterback.

Green Bay, meanwhile, have allowed a mediocre 434 yards through the air against a poor and pretty good attack. This has been disappointing considering they fielded three Pro Bowlers in the secondary, but they are still forcing turnovers—six interceptions through two games.

 

Rams’ rushing attack vs. Packers’ rush defense: too close to call

This sort of depends on which Packers defense shows up—the one that held second-year standout Matt Forte to 55 yards on 25 carries, or the one that allowed Bears castoff Cedric Benson to run through arm tackles. In all, they have allowed 237 rushing yards.

The Rams have not run the ball much because they have been playing from behind, and have not run it especially well when they did. In two games, they have just 203 yards on the ground, but they do have Stephen Jackson, who is still a formidable weapon in the backfield.

 

Special Teams: slight advantage, Rams

Neither kicker has been that impressive, with Mason Crosby missing two kicks (one in the 40-49 yard range, the other in the 50-plus) and Josh Brown missing his only kick (in the 20-29 yard range). However, that is too small a sample for Brown and both long misses for Crosby.

The Rams have a definite edge in punting, with a better punter and better coverage units, as well as a slightly better return game. The Packers have an edge in kicking, with better coverage and a significantly better return game.

 

Injuries/intangibles: advantage, Rams

St. Louis face no pressure as nothing is expected of them, although they do not need it as badly as the Packers, either. Green Bay’s season is hanging by a thread despite the calendar saying September.

With the big matchup next week in Minnesota against their chief rival and traitor, the team needs this one badly. They also could get caught looking ahead, although the loss to the Bengals lessens the likelihood of that.

The Rams only have rookie tackle Jason Smith that is likely to miss the game. Meanwhile, the Packers will be without Atari Bigby and starting new safety Derrick Martin, plus Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins will be playing through a chest injury. The aforementioned Clifton injury is not the only one on offense, either—backup running back Brandon Jackson is out, as well.

The Packers are out-performing the Rams in third-down conversions on both sides of the ball, time of possession, and have a whopping plus-14.5 edge in points scored by/against. Both teams are virtually equal in penalties, with the Packers having 17 for 121 yards and the Rams 16 for 130.

 

Prediction: 31-20 Packers

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NFL: Bengals 31, Packers 24…the Game Unseen

My fellow Packers fans are aghast, not just at the way this team lost what should have been its most certain victory, but at the fact that I did not see the game!

As Inigo Montoya would say, “Let me explain…no, there is no time—let me sum up.”

As many of you know, I live in the great city of San Francisco, and the games of my childhood team are not always shown locally. No problem—I have DirecTV and purchased NFL Sunday Ticket.

Then my satellite receiver went on the fritz. So we order a new one, get rid of the things we have recorded on TiVo that would be lost in the switch by either watching or taping them, and install the new receiver.

Except it doesn’t work, as it turns out they gave us the wrong receiver and it could not record. So unbeknownst to me, while I am serving as a Head Porter for all three services at church (being there from 7:30 a.m. through 1:40 p.m.—I say this because while I am now Protestant, I was raised Catholic and have the appropriate martyr complex and need to complain), the game is not taping.

Maybe it’s a good thing.

From what I can tell from a statistical analysis, this performance was appalling. From what I have heard of eyewitness accounts, it was worse than that.

Plus, how frustrating would it have been to see the team run out of time 10 yards from tying the score?

Nonetheless, I have a journalistic obligation to report on the game, even though I lack the tools a journalist would have, such as being able to see more than four or five plays of the game in highlights. Keep that in mind as you judge my grading:

Quarterback: B

Aaron Rodgers was 21 of 39 (.538) for 261 yards (6.7 per attempt) and one score with no picks despite being under constant pressure—he was sacked six times for 39 yards. He ran four times for 43 yards, meaning he accounted for 265 yards on 49 plays—a 5.4-yard average.

Running Back: D-

Ryan Grant, the only running back to get on the stat sheet at all, had 14 carries for just 46 yards (3.3 average). He is showing some ability receiving this year, getting 22 yards on three catches in this game. This gave him a mere 68 yards on 17 plays (exactly a 4-yard average) with one score and one fumble, doing nothing to keep offensive balance.

Wide Receivers: D

Last week only Donald Driver and Greg Jennings made catches from this unit. This week, it was Driver and Jordy Nelson combining for all seven catches for 110 yards (one for 11 by Nelson) and one score. This unit was supposed to be the deepest on the team and was third-best in the league last year, but they have to help Rodgers out more.

Tight End: B

A surprising bright spot on the team considering this looked to be the weakest unit going in. All three tight ends had over 20 yards receiving, combining for nine catches and 105 yards. JerMichael Finley is asserting himself as the team’s top tight end with four catches for 56 yards, twice what “starter” Donald Lee had in his four catches.

However, this unit needs to help open more running lanes and support in pass protection better.

Offensive Line: is there a grade lower than F?

There should be for this unit. Allen Barbre is largely responsible for the five sacks of Antawn Odom, who came into the game with just 17.5 in 65 career games. Chad Clifton went down with injury, and that does not bode well with the struggles of the rest of the young line.

No one is playing well, and even on bad knees, Mark Tauscher has to be better than Barbre. Ted Thompson may not like to do it, but he has to sign a new right tackle (Levi Jones?) if the season is not going to be completely lost. Teams now know they can come at Rodgers all day from that side, and they will exploit that weakness.

Defensive Line: C-

Cullen Jenkins managed one of the Packers two sacks, and the mere four tackles and one assist by the unit is not alarming because in a 3-4, the line just occupies blockers so the linebackers can make plays. But giving up 151 yards on the ground in 34 carries (a 4.4-yard average)—mostly to Cedric Benson no less—suggests they did not do that.

Linebackers: D

This unit has to be held accountable for the six catches for 64 yards from the Bengals running backs and tight ends. This is nothing special since none of them got into the endzone, but nothing to be proud of considering none of those guys are making a run at a Pro Bowl.

The entire unit accounted for 13 tackles and eight assists, the kind of numbers usually associated with one or two players. Even Clay Matthews’ first sack is nothing special—in a 3-4 this unit should get more than one sack every game.

Defensive Backs: B+

Charles Woodson had another stellar game, remaining the lone impact player Ted Thompson has ever signed. He had two interceptions and returned one for a touchdown, and led the team with nine tackles and an assist.

It is never a good thing when a defensive back is your leading tackler. It is even worse when there is no one on the team with more tackles than your top three defensive backs. The unit as a whole accounted for 27 tackles and six assists, and the rest of the defense had 17 and nine, respectively. Ouch!

Despite their stellar tackling, two turnovers forced, and score, they did give up all three scores. Carson Palmer did complete 65 percent of his passes for over eight yards per attempt, but a lot of that may be the lack of pressure. The wide receivers of the Bengals are probably their best unit, and managed just nine catches for 121 yards.

Special Teams: F

Did I see this right—Jeremy Kapinos had a 24.2 yard net average on his punts? Are you freaking kidding me? The punt coverage allowed a 22-yard average on returns!

Were we better in kick coverage? No, coverage there gave up over 40 yards per return. Maybe you could say it was better because it recovered an onside…

How about the return game? Okay, but not great: Will Blackmon averaged 22 yards on his kick returns, and neither he nor anyone else had any punt return yardage.

So was Mason Crosby at least good? Sort of—he did miss one of his two field goal attempts, but it was from 55 yards and the one he hit to draw the team within seven was from 45.

 

I should add that the Packers lost a game in which the opponents were flagged for 13 penalties, mostly by getting 11 themselves. The Packers were the second-most penalized team in the league last year and the second-most injured—both of those trends look to be continuing (Atari Bigby will miss up to a month with his knee injury suffered last week), and if not corrected, will lead to another long season.

Next week the Packers travel to St. Louis, which appears to be an even easier game than this one did on paper. They must not only win but play well to prepare themselves for the big divisional matchup against that traitor and his new team, who may well come into that week 3-0.

I originally wrote this article for SportsScribes.net.

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MJ’s NFL Power Poll and Predictions, Week Two

First, I will start with the power poll. For a view of how these picks changed, see last week’s article…

1. Pittsburgh Steelers—the Patriots’ close call against a bad team made the Steelers’ close call against a good one seem inconsequential.
2. New York Giants—because I do not believe in picking repeats, I am riding this team all the way through Miami.
3. New England Patriots—their lackluster performance and Tom Brady’s inability to step properly into throws makes me see them as questionable.
4. Tennessee Titans—looked good in defeat, and those ahead of them looked worse in victory.
5. Atlanta Falcons—the defense was supposed to be questionable at best, but was dominant in week one.
6. Baltimore Ravens—here by default since a 14-point win over the Chiefs at home is not impressive.
7. Philadelphia Eagles—losing Donovan McNabb is an Eagles fan’s worst nightmare, whether they realize it or not: Kevin Kolb is not ready, and this just adds fuel to the Michael Vick vs. McNabb controversy.
8. San Diego Chargers—a narrow victory in Oakland may not be as alarming as it would seem, since the Raiders play tough there, especially against division rivals.
9. Green Bay Packers—getting the close and comeback win gets the monkey off Aaron Rodgers’ back, but the Bears exposed many holes.
10. Minnesota Vikings—still have major special teams problems, and there is nothing impressive about beating the Browns, even by that margin.
11. Seattle Seahawks—looked like the best team in week one until you consider they were playing the worst.
12. Dallas Cowboys—a solid road win but against a weak team.
13. Chicago Bears—may have better receivers than thought, and Jay Cutler will not play that badly again…the loss of Brian Urlacher means little, as it is a regular occurrence and he is overrated.
14. Indianapolis Colts—barely beating a bad team at home makes placing them this high questionable.
15. New Orleans Saints—I know that was the Lions, but Drew Brees looks ready to follow last season with another big one.
16. Washington Offensively Named Ones—were competitive on the road against one of the game’s best teams.
17. New York Jets—Mark Sanchez is better than the quarterback he was in the preseason, and with this defense, this team’s a contender.
18. San Francisco Forty-Niners—this team will play a lot of ugly games, but can win them, in part because no-one’s linebackers tackle better.
19. Arizona Cardinals—too much talent to drop out of the top 20, but they haven’t looked good this summer.
20. Carolina Panthers—I saw this team as a darkhorse, but then listened to everyone else…last week made me look right in the first place.
21. Miami Dolphins—still a solid team, but they cannot rely on the surprise factor of the horribly over-hyped “wildcat offense.”
22. Buffalo Bills—moved up only one space despite a near victory in Foxboro because they proved the adage that bad teams find a way to lose.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars—their close loss may be as much because of the Colts’ shortcomings as the Jags being better than expected.
24. Houston Texans—like I said, until they can play a full season, I will not jump on this bandwagon…last week may have been a sign they are not ready to take the next step.
25. Oakland Raiders—another example of bad teams finding a way to lose, but they still played well against an ostensibly elite team.
26. Kansas City Chiefs—tough first-week gig, but week two should show if they are as bad as advertised.
27. Denver Broncos—pulled out a road win, albeit with a little luck and against the lowly Bengals, but the defense may not be as bad as projected.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—kept it close against a solid team.
29. Cincinnati Bengals—that loss has to make you feel you are cursed.
30. Cleveland Browns—played a close first half, but wore down quickly.
31. Detroit Lions—gave up that many yards and still looked better than last year!
32. St. Louis Rams—could they threaten the Lions’ place in history as the only 16-loss team ever?

Now for this week’s picks, in order from least to most sure:

1. Eagles
2. Giants
3. Colts
4. Chiefs
5. Patriots
6. Chargers
7. Forty-Niners
8. Cardinals
9. Steelers
10. Bills
11. Broncos
12. Vikings
13. Falcons
14. Titans
15. Packers
16. Offensively Named Ones

Last week I finished 12-4 (.750), with 123 of a possible 136 points (losing my 1, 2, 4, and 6 point picks—.904).

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NFL: Five Questions for the Oddsmaker

As a follow-up to my last article on Packers odds and which I considered good and bad bets, I have asked five questions of Richard Gardner, the Bodog Sportsbook Manager who is a key part of the process in determining odds…

 

1. I know that odds and point spreads are determined to get an even number of bettors on both sides. In your estimation, how much does the fan fervor for teams like the Packers and Steelers skew odds against the payouts on those teams and what team does it affect the most?

Fan fervor obviously plays in to opening lines, but generally the adjustments will happen later in the season as teams really get on a roll. The best example of this would have been two years ago when the Patriots went 17-0 and steamrolled everyone.

As bookmakers, we kept the spread creeping up, but no matter how big the spread (typically 14-17 points that year) became, bettors could not get enough of the Patriots.

2. When setting the initial odds-before betting on either side sways them, what are the most important factors in predicting a team’s success, and how much do you project betting biases into said odds?

First of all, we analyze all aspects of the game whether it be personnel and injuries, weather, and typical home-field advantage as well as how the two styles of play will match up on both sides of the ball.

Once we get that feel, we will look at the two teams individually from the fan perspective and make some adjustments based on how perception is going in to a game.

For this week for example with the Chicago-Green Bay game, there was no need to make any additional adjustments as both teams have positive hype going in to the season. Green Bay has the buzz after a excellent pre-season, and the Bears because of the Cutler signing.

Where you will see a bit of adjustment is on a line like the Vikings-Browns where the Vikings getting Favre is a positive and the mystery QB tour in Cleveland has added to the negative perception of the team.

This is where we will move a bit off where the research says we should be. Generally, biggest adjustments are for home dogs, which historically have been solid for the book.

3. What is the most dramatic shift you have seen in odds, either from one week to another or from the beginning of the season to say post-week nine, when all the byes are done and teams are pretty much known quantities?

Last season, the best example of this would have been the Atlanta Falcons, who were expected to do nothing in the first year of Matt Ryan starting, but past the halfway point he had become the golden child to bettors.

 

4. How often has a team that begins the season with 20:1 odds on winning the Super Bowl achieved that feat? Has anyone other than the 1999 Rams been able to do that?

Not often, and in the last dozen years that is the only example that I can think of. Bookmakers are always going to be a little conservative with dogs knowing that there is a lot of parity in football.

Of course, a lot of long shots have made it to the big game, like the Arizona Cardinals, who were 60-1 to start the season.

 

5. How much does the potential for injuries of certain key players get factored in? For instance, does knowing Brett Favre is virtually a lock to start every game while Tom Brady’s injury may make him more susceptible to another make enough of a difference to be considered in odds and point spreads?

Injuries play a key role in determining the weekly line and odds to win after they happen. For some players like Bob Sanders who are always hurt and have a big impact for their team, we do take them in to consideration.

For a player like Tom Brady we expect him to come back healthy and if bettors tell us differently by avoiding a team’s futures odds then we will make the adjustments, but with Tom Brady bettors have told us differently as the Patriots have dropped from 11/2 to 7/2 to win the Super Bowl and have generated a lot of handle for the book.

I originally wrote this article for SportsScribes.net.

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NFL: Betting on the Green Bay Packers

I should preface this article by saying I do not advocate gambling.

However, I am frequently caught wanting to show my confidence by offering to wager on my views. Thus, I will offer odds on the odds for certain Packers’ achievements, as listed according to www.Bodog.com.

 

Regular Season Win Total, Over/Under

Over   8.5                       -200

Under 8.5                      +160

Take the over here. The only way the Packers do not win nine games is if they have major injuries like 2008 or have an injury to Aaron Rodgers. Chances that the over is the right bet: 60 percent.

 

Odds to win the NFC North Division: 2:1     

Bet on the Packers. I calculate the Packers as the division’s best team—the best quarterback, the best receiving corps, the best defensive backfield, and no units that are not competitive with the Bears or Vikings.

I believe the Vikings chance is about 35 percent and the Bears is about 25 percent. This means the chances the Packers win this bet is about 40 percent, making the average pay-off 4:3.

 

Odds to win the 2009 NFC Championship: 9:1

These odds are close to accurate. Because the NFC is tight, the Packers could well get homefield advantage, either all the way or at least until the NFC championship. With that advantage, they are a clear favorite.

However, there are better teams in the NFC that could beat the Packers at Lambeau Field. It is also probable the Packers will not obtain homefield advantage for every game.

Thus, I believe to pull this off will require at least one upset. I put the odds of even getting to the game at only about one in three and winning it drops them to about one in eight. That makes this marginally a good bet with a 9:8 payoff.

 

Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 20:1

This is about right. The Packers may be able to win the NFC, but the three best teams in the AFC are all clearly better and would all handle the media attention for the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl better than the league’s youngest team. I consider this even, but if you had to bet on it, I would say bet against the Packers.

 

 

Player Performance Odds

Total Passing Yards—Aaron Rodgers

Over/Under                    3900

Considering Rodgers already passed for over 4000 yards in 2008 and will not be facing comparisons to a Hall of Fame quarterback in his first year starting, the over seems like a no-brainer.

However, the reality is the defense will play a lot better and so will the running game—both were hampered by injuries last year, and the defense severely so. Thus, there will be less need to pass, and that makes this an accurate number for over/under. In a pinch, I would say take the under; while most of his weapons are improving, the chance of injury (he missed less than a half game last season) makes the over a lower than even bet.

 

Total TD Passes—Aaron Rodgers

Over/Under                    27.5

Again, Rodgers did better than this last year (28), but the same reasons he may throw for fewer yards may have him throwing fewer touchdowns. That being said, having a better running game may open up more chances for play-action and passing lanes in the red zone. Just like for yards, I will factor in the chance of injury to say break the tie in favor of the under.

 

 

Total INT—Aaron Rodgers

Over/Under                    13.5

Rodgers had only 13 picks last year, and if anything, needing to throw less should produce fewer, not only because of the percentage but because there will be less need to force things. Add to that the chance of him getting hurt and not playing a full season and this is an easy call: I rank the chance of the under being the result at about two in three.

 

Total Rushing Yards—Ryan Grant

Over/Under                    1100

Grant had 1200 yards last year while playing through a hamstring problem, so getting 100 fewer when he starts the season healthy seems an easy task. However, not only is it common to have running backs miss games entirely from injury, but I do think Brandon Jackson is going to take some carries from him. I place the odds of the under coming true at about five in nine.

 

Total TDs—Ryan Grant

Over/Under                    6.5

Last season, Grant finished with only four touchdowns because he could not rip off the big carries—just six of 20-plus and one of 40-plus. He had eight the season before, when he had 11 and two, respectively. This ability will jump because of his health more than it will be hurt by his splitting carries with Jackson.

However, because a running back does often miss games from injury and he could be unseated as the starter by a solid backup, I think the under has about a 60 percent chance of coming true.

 

Total Receiving Yards—Greg Jennings

Over/Under                    1100

Jennings finished 2008 sixth in receiving yards with 1292, and he (as well as his chemistry with Rodgers) is only getting better. While injuries happen to wide receivers, they are far less common than with tailbacks and quarterbacks, I give the odds of the over coming true at two in three.

 

 

Total TDs—Greg Jennings

Over/Under                    9.5

Jennings scored nine touchdowns in 2008, and on top of the factors listed above that indicate 2009 should be better, Donald Driver’s aging is more significant than the growth of James Jones and Jordy Nelson in comparison to Jennings’s growth. Then again, the need to pass less often may counter this, and that makes this a good over/under mark. In a pinch, I would say go with the under because if Rodgers gets hurt, so do Jennings’ numbers.

 

Total Receiving Yards—Donald Driver

Over/Under                    900

Driver made it to 1000 yards for the fifth time in six seasons last season, but barely. He is getting older and the talent around him is getting better. Couple that with the potential of a significant injury to Rodgers, killing the Packers’ passing attack, and the safe bet (about two in three) is to take the under on Driver.

 

 

Total TDs—Donald Driver

Over/Under                    5

Driver had five touchdowns in 2008, but for the reasons listed above plus the Packers likely passing less often, the safe bet (maybe three in four) is the under here, too—in fact, a push might be a better bet than the over.

 

Total Sacks – Aaron Kampman

Over/Under                    10        

Kampman had 9.5 sacks in 2008 and is third in the league in the last four seasons with 37. He is coming to his peak at 29 years old, and is now in a position more prone to sacks. His pass rush can come from different angles, and he will not always be double- and triple-teamed this year.

Do not be sucked in by the idea that the transition will be difficult for him: Kampman played linebacker in college and has handled the transition well thus far. Moreover, the problem is much more likely to impact his pass coverage than his sack totals. This is an easy call: the chance of him exceeding 10 sacks is about three in four.

 

Who will have more Interceptions?

Charles Woodson          2/3

Nick Collins                   3/2

Tramon Williams            5/2

Charles Woodson is the best cover corner in the division and one of the three best in the league. People have to throw his way because the rest of the secondary is so good.

And don’t believe the “he’s getting old” talk. That is wishful thinking by rival fans—he is only 32, and there is no way the extra year counters the fact that he will not be playing with a broken toe this year.

Meanwhile, Nick Collins takes some chances back there and also will be in position to pick off passes to the tight end. Collins has almost as much a nose for the big plays as Woodson, and played through a bad back last year that laid him up between games.

Finally, Tramon Williams is the guy most picked on because he’s newest. However, I think teams will see that the risk-taking Al Harris may be better to go after as Williams develops into a better overall cover-corner.

Between Collins and Woodson, Woodson will get more picks. However, the payoff is higher on Collins, so I make him the better bet because he only needs to have two-thirds the chance that Woodson does of leading the team.

 

In summary, I have betting on the Packers team or players (either to achieve something or hit the over number) five times and the under nine (three of which are really too close to call). I must say, I am surprised, considering my high hopes for the season.

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