Green Bay Packers Management Analysis, 2008 and Beyond

The foul stench that emanated from Lambeau Field in 2008 cannot be fully blamed on the players and coaches, nor can it be placed entirely on injuries. It requires an analysis from the top—the seeds of failure are often sown in the spring leading up the season.

Hence, I finish my examination of the Packers 2008 season and immediate future by looking at management: General Manager Ted Thompson and Chief Executive Officer Mark Murphy (filling the role an owner would fill in every other organization, not owned by the community).

 

Mark Murphy (became team CEO in December of 2007)

Murphy has the responsibility of pushing Thompson in the right direction. In his first full season in charge of the team, he failed to do that.

Typically, you want to give a guy—even if you did not hire him—the latitude to make decisions he believes in. And coming off having been the executive of the year, Thompson had earned that autonomy.

However, I believe it was Murphy’s responsibility to push buttons in two areas that Thompson was clearly failing in:

Signing Free Agents

Murphy could have convinced Thompson that he needed to not make the mistake he had in 2007, when one more signing could have provided the Packers the one play they were missing to get past the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Perhaps then Favre feels satisfied enough to retire gracefully and the team avoids the mess that follows in the offseason; which brings me to the second issue…

Brett Favre

Murphy should have been able to see that Thompson was over his head and stepped in to represent the organization without fearing how Thompson’s role would have been perceived.

 

Since Murphy is technically the ultimate authority, as Harry Truman said, “The buck stops here.” He has to bear the responsibility of a team that struggled both on and off the field, and cannot receive higher than a C- for 2008 despite the many unforeseen problems the team encountered. We also have little to go on for his role in the future but what we saw in 2008, so I grade his future a C-, as well.

 

Ted Thompson (starting fifth season as Packers GM)

The Good

Thompson made the decision to keep Aaron Rodgers over Brett Favre. This was a controversial decision and a primarily unpopular one.

But it was the right one, both for the future and for the 2008 season. Not only did Rodgers have a better season than Favre in 2008, he had a better season than most of Favre’s previous 16 despite it being his first year starting.

Thompson also signed linebacker Brandon Chillar to a free agent contract, and Chillar got ample playing time because of the injury to Nick Barnett. He drafted back-up QB Matt Flynn in the seventh round, and drafted other players who made significant contributions in WR Jordy Nelson (36th pick, 336 yards and 2 TDs) and TE JerMichael Finley (91st pick, 74 yards, 1 TD).

The Bad

Thompson traded away his most dynamic defensive tackle in Corey Williams, relying on a run-stuffer (Ryan Pickett), two pedestrian players (Colin Cole and Johnny Jolly), and an injury-prone 2007 draft pick (Justin Harrell). When Harrell once again was not healthy, this decision proved tragic.

Thompson cannot really be blamed for picking QB Brian Brohm, who was a training camp bust, in the second-round—he was widely regarded as the best player available, and the Packers needed some insurance for the predominantly untested Rodgers.

Similarly, like his third second-round pick, Pat Lee, we cannot assume that one bad year (for injuries in Lee’s case) will mean the player does not work out.

However, Thompson’s continued reluctance to venture into the free agent market despite the Packers being in the top quarter of the league in cap room in each of the last two years magnifies every draft pick that does not pan out. He has to accept the consequences of being cheap.

The Ugly

While the choice of Rodgers over Favre was clearly the right one, it is hard to imagine a way he could have handled the decision worse. He put undue pressure on the franchise quarterback he had now chosen and divided the fan base.

Obviously, I do not blame Thompson for deciding not to take Favre back, and I applaud him for refusing to release him or trade him within the division. Favre made the decision to leave and the Packers had to not only move on but protect their own interests. 

Moreover, Favre’s hindsight claims that he felt unwanted are not supported by facts. Favre said in his message to Sports Illustrated writer Peter King announcing his retirement that he was not pressured to leave. According to a Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel report last summer, both Thompson and McCarthy tried to encourage Favre not to wait to make the decision to retire when he talked with them about hanging it up.

But Thompson made the situation unnecessarily contentious when he did each of the following:

1. Saying Favre could come in as a backup. Favre was a not just a future Hall of Famer, but coming off a Pro Bowl season. He deserved to at least an open competition.
2. Trying to buy Favre off with a $2 million/year PR contract. Even if I were to believe it was something the Packers wanted to offer him either way (and since I reject Favre’s contentions that seem implausible, I must do the same for Thompson), the fact that it came across as a buy-off represents a failing on Thompson’s part.
3. Hiring Ari Fleischer to do damage control confirmed that there a mess to clean up. Moreover, Ted was willing to hire a professional liar who represented an administration that believed itself to be above the law and whose policies bankrupted the country morally and financially to do the job.

Had Thompson simply said he would take Favre back publicly and then worked behind the scenes for a trade, a lot of bad feelings could have been spared on both sides. The Packers may also have gotten better than a third-round pick for the Hall of Fame QB.

While the reality is that the Packers season was hurt by injuries and not distractions, we cannot be sure that the distractions did not affect training and conditioning, nor that the injuries could not have been better overcome had there not been distractions.

We also do not know that Rodgers might not have been even better without the pressure of having to win over half of the fan base.

Thompson’s negatives outweighed his positives in 2008, and he can get no better than a D+ for his efforts. Since he appears to have not learned any lessons regarding free agency or paying his players he already has, one has to contrast that against his executive of the year 2007 job performance, and conclude he gets a B- for the future.

Favre and the Vikings: Recorded Phone Conversation Obtained!

Using my status as a community leader on Bleacher Report, I was able to obtain a source who had access to a government wiretap left on Brett Favre’s Packer-issued cell phone that he had used to speak with the Vikings last summer.

(This is the one that the Packers later denied having issued him. It seems that they realized that, having not reported it as compensation to the star quarterback, it was a violation of the league’s salary cap requirements and subjected them to a loss of Ted Thompson’s coveted draft picks.)

According to the source, the tap was originally put on Favre’s phone under the auspices of the Patriot Act because the Bush Administration determined that Favre’s retirement was unpatriotic given the amount of news and excitement having him in the league generated. President Obama okayed the continued surveillance because he is more obsessed with sports than getting his stimulus package moving.

The source would only divulge a portion of the phone call that was placed by Favre to Vikings coach Brad Childress after the coach put a deadline on a Favre decision at the end of the week. She assured me that all the relevant portion was made available to me, and I reprint that to you:

 

Favre: Hey, Brad. What’s this I hear about you needing an answer from me by the end of the week?

Childress: Yes, it’s true. We can’t sit here waiting all summer to know whether we’re gonna have you or not. Even the Packers got sick of that.

F: It’s Brett. You know who I am, right?

C: We would have been right there with you last year, but you threw nine picks and only two scores in your last five games. We fear you might be done.

F: One, I had even less to work with (in the receiving corps) than I would have with you guys, and that’s saying something. Two, I HAD A TORN BICEPS! That’s what the whole wait is about!

C: The wait is about you being a tease. That’s why you had the wait the last four years, too.

F: I reckon you got a point there, but why do you think I had the surgery I dreaded? Anyway, let’s face it, I’m the best option you got. Even with a bum shoulder, I would be better than anyone else on your roster.

C: Okay, but having to answer all these questions is killing our camp. We’re getting nowhere. We won 10 games and the division without a QB last year—better to do it again than lose a bunch in limbo.

F: Only because the Packers had half their defense down with injuries. I mean, I hate them now, but let’s face it, you don’t have any options—I don’t see Aaron Rodgers on your roster.

C: But we need to look at options if we can’t count on you.

F: What options? You gonna sign (Michael) Vick when it’s been three years since he’s played? He wasn’t that good when he was playing.

C: He did beat you in the playoffs.

F: Doesn’t count—(Mike) Sherman was the coach, and he couldn’t even figure out how to challenge a punt we never touched!

C: But we can’t wait any longer.

F: So you’re trying to tell me if I don’t sign by Friday, you won’t let me sign in July?

C: Yup.

F: Give me a break! You would kiss my feet to sign! (Owner) Ziggy (Wilf) would love the ticket sales, your fans would love a QB, and so would the players…you know I heard about what (defensive tackle Pat) Williams said about (Tarvaris) Jackson, right?

C: I reckon you did—ARGH! Now you got me talking like that!

F: Exactly. You know I can save your job and so you’re talkin’ my language! Maybe I should sign with the Lions. I bet I can make the difference of the couple points they lost to you by in each game, and knock you right out of the playoffs!

C: Okay, you called my bluff, but I can’t unring the bell and I can’t take it back or I lose face and it makes me a dead-man-walking in my job. Throw me a bone!

F: How ’bout I just tell you publicly, “No, I can’t say for sure I’ll be heathy enough.” Then in July, I tell you I am healthy enough and you say, given that, you think it’s the best thing for this team if you sign me, but I gotta make the team—like that’s a problem.

That way, you get the media off your backs for now. Yet I’m selling tickets and getting you on prime time, getting to beat the Packers and that dweeb Rodgers twice, and everyone outside of Wisconsin is happy!

C: You got me over a barrel. But I really don’t wanna get caught in what happened to the Jets last year. It was the fact that you didn’t want to work out all offseason and then tried to get ready quick that got you hurt. You’re almost 40 now—you can’t get in playing shape in a week or two anymore.

F: I was throwing all spring to try to finish the tear in my biceps. I’m already trying to throw now. If you rush me back, I won’t be any good to you. With a QB, you could win it all—wouldn’t that stick it to the Packers?

(Editor’s note: as they would still be the Vikings, the best they could do is lose for the fifth time in five tries when they get to the Super Bowl.)

C: I’m just interested in winning, not your petty vendetta. And I’m afraid if you’re not ready this week, we have two choices—rush you back and put too much wear-and-tear on that old shoulder of yours, or ease you back so you don’t know the offense and try to force the ball like you do.

F: Real men are gamblers. Ain’t I a risk worth taking? Now, tell me about the home market outside Minneapolis, and the hunting and fishing spots near town…

Green Bay Packers Position Analysis, Volume VII: Defensive Backs

Now for the seventh and final positional analysis of the Green Bay Packers: Defensive Backs. I began this series on player personnel grades for 2008 and outlook for 2009 before the draft and free agency, so here I will examine only those players on the roster in 2008.

CB Charles Woodson, 6’1”, 202 lbs.

11 years experience, seven interceptions (169 return yards, two touchdowns), 20 passes defensed, one fumble forced, one fumble recovered, three sacks (14 yards), 79 tackles (66 solo)

If you are a wide receiver, you do not want to see this man crouching in front of you. Woodson is one of the five elite cornerbacks in the NFL, and if he is on your side of the field, there is a good chance the ball will not get to you.

All of the above Pro Bowl statistics were accomplished playing through a broken toe, an injury that severely limits the necessary changes of direction required of a man-to-man cover cornerback. Woodson is not only deserving of an A in 2008, but at only 32 years old, has enough left in the tank to play at a high level into the next decade (B+).

 

CB Al Harris, 6’1”, 190 lbs.

11 years experience, 12 passes defensed, 21 tackles (all solo)

Harris missed four-plus games due to injury and was limited in further games due to a spleen injury. It was his first season not playing every game, so while he is 34, there is no reason to think he cannot still play well: Harris made a trip to the Pro Bowl as an alternate and has been reliable and productive. Players rarely disappear that quickly.

However, he may have earned that trip to Hawaii partially on reputation: I can only give him a B- for 2008 because of missed games and slipping production.

With the development of a young Tramon Williams who filled in for Harris, I see Al’s role diminishing, and he will probably be only a nickelback—albeit perhaps the best in the league—by the end of the season (B-, as he’s likely to play all 16 games).

 

CB Tramon Williams, 5’11”, 191 lbs.

Two years, five interceptions (78 return yards), 14 passes defensed, one fumble recovery, two fumbles forced, 52 tackles (45 solo)

When Williams filled in for Harris, he struggled mightily in that first game against Dallas, but two weeks later against Atlanta came up with a touchdown-saving interception. Two weeks after that he helped shut down one of the league’s top passing games (229 yards, only 35 to the top two receivers), with the Packers defense scoring as much as the Colts’ offense (14 points).

Williams did a fantastic job playing a role he was not projected to play in 2008—only five players had more interceptions than a player who did not even start half the season. That is why Williams earned a B+ for 2008 and seems poised to take over the starting position in what promises to be one of the better position battles in training camp…his future rates an A-.
CB Will Blackmon, 6’0”, 206 lbs.

Two years, one pass defensed, one fumble recovery, two fumbles forced, 17 tackles (16 solo)

Blackmon was pressed into more playing time last season because of the injuries to Harris and Pat Lee, but is really no more than a special teams player. He was a solid returner (three punt returns for touchdowns in two years) and led the team in tackles with 18.

He gets a C- for his pass coverage in 2008, and despite still developing, it is unlikely he will see action in the backfield in 2009 (future: C-). Lee was the team’s second round pick in 2008 and will play if healthy; even newly-drafted Brandon Underwood will get a chance to show he is ready to play right away.

 

CB Pat Lee, 6’0”, 194 lbs.

One year, one pass defensed, one tackle (solo)

Lee was another of Ted Thompson’s top picks to be an utter bust in his first year (along with two-year bust Justin Harrell and fellow 2008 pick Brian Brohm, who could not even beat out seventh rounder Matt Flynn for the backup quarterback spot). Because of his injury in a season almost anyone in the backfield could have contributed, he earns an F for 2008.

However, there is no reason to assume he will have Harrell’s injury struggles, having been healthy at Auburn. He was the eighth cornerback drafted in 2008 and was generally considered a solid pick; his future rates a B- because he is still an unknown.

 

CB/S Jarrett Bush, 6’0”, 200 lbs.

Three years, one pass defensed, one tackle (solo)

Setting aside my bias against him for trying to make a highlight reel in the NFC Championship Game in 2007 rather than falling on the fumble, Bush remains primarily a special teams player. He saw limited action against spread formations even though there were injuries to the unit.

Having little asked of him in pass coverage, it is hard to give him less than a C- for 2008 despite him having made almost no plays. His main role was in special teams, where he was among the team’s five leading tacklers.

However, when you look at the Packers lack of special teams skill in 2008, perhaps losing Bush is not a loss. I see Underwood’s drafting signaling the end of Bush’s time in Green Bay, although his ability to play any backfield position might keep him around…a D- for his future.
S Nick Collins, 5’11”, 207 lbs.

Four years, seven interceptions (295 return yards, three touchdowns), 18 passes defensed, one fumble forced, 99 tackles (77 solo)

Collins was tied for the team lead in interceptions and led in both return yards and scores. He appropriately made the Pro Bowl in 2008, despite playing through a back injury that limited his play, especially in October. Clearly, that earns him an A for 2008.

His future is bright, as he is in his mid-20’s and has not peaked yet. However, there have been some rumblings that he is not happy with his contract.

While Ted Thompson’s policy is supposed to be to save cap room (and he has more of it than almost any other team) to re-sign his own players, this is a deep position for the team, especially after they added Anthony Smith in the off-season.

My guess is the two sides will work this out for 2009, and thus Collins’ immediate future is bright. There is every reason to expect he will continue to get better, especially if he is healthy: A+.

 

S Atari Bigby, 5’11”, 213 lbs.

Three years, one interception (seven return yards), three passes defensed, 31 tackles (20 solo)

Bigby only played seven games because of injury. Nevertheless, he made an impact when he was in, and receives a B for 2008. He makes mistakes because of being too aggressive, but is an intimidating hitter and a danger to make a play on the ball.

Not even 25 years old yet, his future is bright and his best years are ahead of him. I expect him to learn to pick his spots better and be one of the better safeties in the league (A-).
S Aaron Rouse, 6’4”, 223 lbs.

Two years, two interceptions (136 return yards, one touchdown), three passes defensed, 68 tackles (44 solo)

Rouse is huge for a safety and still athletic enough to have a nose for the ball, as seen by his two interceptions and one score despite missing two games and starting only a few. He receives a B- for his safety play in 2008, and was the team’s second-leading tackler on special teams, as well.

With only two seasons under his belt, Rouse will only get better. He already is good enough to start on almost any other team in the NFL, and did that well for the Packers in 2008, his future rates a B+.

 

S Charlie Peprah, 5’11”, 203 lbs.

Three years, two passes defensed, 19 tackles (8 solo)

Peprah is a serviceable safety who also is a special teams contributor (top five in special teams tackles in 2008). He played in only 13 games and rarely was in at safety, being pressed into play only because of injuries to Collins and Bigby.

He was a weakness when he was in, at times being replaced with a cornerback playing safety, thus he gets a D+ for 2008. However, it should be noted that he played better than a fourth safety would be expected to in only his second year.

He will get better, but I suspect it will be in another uniform: Anthony Smith’s arrival, the drafting of Underwood who can also play safety, and the presumed return to health of the unit probably means there is no room for a pedestrian player…his future with Green Bay is an F.

 

Overall

In 2008, the Packers secondary was the only bright spot on the defense. The team finished 12th in pass defense despite being 25th in sacks. They led the league in defensive scores and was tied for third in interceptions.

Clearly, the unit deserves an A- for 2008—were it not for the debacle against a very good Saints offense, it might have be an A+.

The team’s future is brighter than their 2008 grade despite the aging of their top two cornerbacks. With Woodson clearly still being elite, Williams ready to step up, and Harris still being a good corner, the Packers may be the only defensive backfield in the league that can match up against their own wide receivers.

Add to that four safeties with starting experience and this is the deepest unit on any team in the league: A+.

Five Packers Positional Battles To Watch Heading into Training Camp

The Green Bay Packers have a new defensive coaching staff that is charged with implementing a new defense. But while their role is perhaps the most prominent key to the success of the team in 2009, it comes down to the players on the field.

To that end, there are five positions that come in as potential weaknesses for the Packers. In each case, there are players on the roster the team realistically hopes can step up to keep them from being areas opponents can exploit.

The Packers have the potential of winning as many as 12 games between the regular season and playoffs. But essentially, each of these weaknesses is likely to cost them a win; thus, if none of them are shored up, the Packers could well finish with a losing record.

I will look at Mike McCarthy’s key personnel choices that will shape the season—the players involved, predict who starts, and declare whether that player will succeed.

Note: there will also be battles two other positional battles, but I will not be examining them in detail. Those positions are deep enough that whoever wins the starting job will be among the best at his position in the division, and the backup will add incredible depth. (The safety depth chart will read Nick Collins, Atari Bigby, Anthony Smith, and Aaron Rouse; the corner opposite Charles Woodson will remain Al Harris, with Tramon Williams being the nickelback.)

Green Bay Packers Coaching Profile and Grades, Part Two

Part One of this article, written two days ago, can be found at this url: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/183560-green-bay-packers-coaching-staff-profiles-and-grades-defense.
This article covers the remainder of the Packers coaching staff—offense and special teams—and the grades of either these coaches or the ones who held a comparable position last season.

Green Bay Packers Defense: 3-4 Brings Big Changes to Defense

CBS Sports recently asked NFL writers, “What do you envision as the biggest changes in your team’s playbook due to shifts in team personnel and coaching staff?”

Everyone knows the answer as it pertains to the Green Bay Packers. In response to a poor 2008 season in which seven fourth-quarter leads were blown by the defense, the Packers fired most of the defensive coaching staff and hired Dom Capers to install a 3-4 defense.

The Packers are expected to become the ninth NFL team to run the 3-4. In 2008, four of the top-10 defenses ran the 3-4 scheme, including the top two: Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

This is due in large part to the superior versatility of the alignment, with linebackers more able to drop into coverage or come from different angles on blitzes. Blocking assignments are more complicated and so are coverage schemes.

Thus, while other teams may tweak their schemes for the new season, the Packers overhauled theirs. Usually, that means stark growing pains.

For one thing, the 3-4 does struggle against the run—especially power running games—because the personnel are smaller. While Pittsburgh and Baltimore were second and third against the run, respectively, no other 3-4 defense finished in the top 10 against the run.

That could be a problem for the Packers, facing last season’s NFC North-winning Minnesota Vikings and Adrian Peterson twice in the season. However, in looking at the rest of the Packers schedule, despite facing Matt Forte twice and Frank Gore once (both very good backs), Green Bay faces only one more team that finished in the top half of the league in 2008—the rebuilding Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

And let’s face it, the Packers run defense cannot be any worse than the injury-riddled 2008 unit against the run. That group was better than only six teams in total rushing yards (2105), average yards per carry (4.6), and first downs allowed (121); only five other teams allowed 20 or more rushing touchdowns.

Yet the Packers were within one score in all but two of their losses. That is why team officials, players, and fans alike should have more optimism than pessimism.

True, many players will be moved because of the scheme change and need to learn new responsibilities. But a healthy, more athletic, and more versatile defense should be much more capable of making plays in 2009, and the loss of size should really only hurt the team in two of their 14 games.

Plus, it is actually better-suited for many of the players physically.

For instance, Pro Bowl defensive end Aaron Kampman, one of the NFL’s top sack producers of the past few seasons, was undersized to play the end position and relied on his speed to make plays. As an outside linebacker—a position he is not unfamiliar with, having played it on college—in a 3-4, he is bigger than normal.

Moreover, it will be easier to move him over tackle or guard to get him beneficial matchups, on or off the line of scrimmage, in a two- or three-point stance, stunting, blitzing, or dropping into coverage.

Nick Barnett, who was lost for almost half the season to injury, has trouble shedding blockers. But in the 3-4, with a wider spread of linebackers to account for, he can be a moving target that is harder to get a hat on. On passing downs, Capers can use Barnett’s playmaking skills to both blitz and cover.

A.J. Hawk is above average size and possesses good straight-line speed and is an excellent tackler. His lateral movement, however, was insufficient to play the weak side, and he actually performed better once he had to fill in for Barnett because of injury—he will have less ground to cover and can attack forward in the new system.

In addition, with the bulk added on the line by drafting B.J. Raji and playing him on running downs at end, moving Johnny Jolly to end from tackle, and the return of a healthy Cullen Jenkins, it will be harder for opposing linemen to get to the next level. Thus, what was a thin spot for the Packers is deep now because of a return from injury, a draft pick, and removing one player from that unit by the scheme change.

All of this should help a ball-hawking secondary make even more plays as quarterbacks are under duress from the variety of blitzes they will face. While they will have to play more zone in a 3-4 than they are accustomed to, their man-to-man experience will come in handy on the many blitzes Capers is expected to employ.

Last season, the Packers dropped from 13th to 22nd in sacks, yet led the league in defensive scoring despite having all four original projected starters hurt. Only Charles Woodson played every game through his injury, and yet he was accompanied by two teammates (corner Al Harris and safety Nick Collins) on the Pro Bowl list.

Meanwhile, other secondary members like cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Will Blackmon as well as safeties Atari Bigby and Aaron Rouse gained valuable experience. This gives the Packers the deepest secondary in the league even without the addition of fleet-footed draft pick Brandon Underwood.

That is why even an overhaul of the system is sure to have more upside than downside for the Green and Gold.

Green Bay Packers 2009 Expectations

In 2008, the Packers entered the season as one of two favourites to win the NFC North, along with the Minnesota Vikings.

This made sense: Green Bay was coming off a 13-3 season in which they were the second-highest seed in the NFC and lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants in overtime. The Packers have won their division in seven of the past 14 seasons.

They has one of the league’s best offenses and a defense that improved as the season went along, finishing 11th in the league. They had arguably the best defensive backfield and a pass rush in the top half of the league, led by Pro Bowl defensive end Aaron Kampman.

Ryan Grant had gained more rushing yards in the final nine games than anyone other than Ladanian Tomlinson and one of the deepest receiving corps in the league. They had a kicker that led all rookies in scoring and otherwise capable special teams.

So why were they not consensus favourites? Well, there was the issue of losing future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre.

That is why everything was on Aaron Rodgers. Could he step in and fill the very large shoes of Favre? More to the point, could he do it when there had been bad blood between Favre and General Manager Ted Thompson that spawned a schism between Packers fans, some of whom rooted against Rodgers?

Had we been told that Rodgers would account for over 4000 yards, 32 touchdowns (including rushing), and 16 turnovers (including his three fumbles lost), and the expectation would be that they won at least 10 games.

What happened was quite different. The Packers had as many as five starters on defense on the injury report at any given time, could not stop the run and could not pressure the passer.

Injuries also struck the offensive line, and at times the Packers could not protect Rodgers or open holes for Grant. Furthermore, they failed on two occasions to hit potential game-winning field goals.

In other words, they failed in all phases of the game en route to a 6-10 season.

In the aftermath, they fired multiple coaches, most notably strength and conditioning coach Rock Gullickson and defensive coordinator Bob Sanders. Then they went a step further, scrapping the system entirely and bringing in Dom Capers and the 3-4 defense.

So how will the Packers do in overcoming the obstacle of transitioning to an entirely different defense? And are they closer to the 13-3 team they were in 2007 or the 6-10 team they were in 2008?

They are closer to the 2007 Packers precisely because they will be able to make the transition to the 3-4 by November of the 2009 season. They have the personnel for most of the spots, although a pedestrian Brady Poppinga or rookie Clay Matthews will need handle the outside linebacker spot opposite converted defensive end Aaron Kampman, who not only possesses the skills but played the position in college.

Before that point, their schedule looks pretty easy on paper; they will manage four wins:

1. vs. Bears
2. vs. Bengals
3. @ Rams
4. @ Vikings
5. vs. Lions
6. @ Browns

The 3-4 will not help them against the run, but being healthy will. However, that new defense is going to help a pass rush that dropped from 13th to 25th in the league, and the result will be a team that can make even more big plays and get off the field.

They will need to have things in order by the end of the season, as their schedule after Thanksgiving is brutal:

1. vs. Ravens
2. @ Bears
3. @ Steelers
4. vs. Seahawks
5. @ Cardinals

The Packers will win only two of those games, but should win four in November to finish 10-6, making things very close in the NFC North, where there are two teams that are major obstacles for Green Bay’s playoff hopes.

The Bears were 9-7 last year and improved at quarterback, but still lack receivers for him to throw to. The Vikings, 10-6, still lack a quarterback (unless Favre does play for them, and I put the odds of that at about even), lost Darren Sharper, and will be without either Pro Bowl defensive tackle for four games.

Anything could happen.

The unknown of Favre heightens the suspense, not just of whether he will play but how well he will do. He is coming off a bad five game stretch in which he was likely hampered his play.

Will he be healthy? Will his desire to stick it to the Packers be a boon or a curse when he faces them? What about his drive in the other games?

The Vikings have all the other tools to win the division, and a quarterback makes them legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Will being without the Williamses at tackle have them in too big a hole, even if Brett does sign with them?

Finally, the Packers have some weaknesses on the offensive line. Left tackle Chad Clifton is coming off a tough year in which he was battling minor injuries. Right tackle Mark Tauscher will not be re-signed because of the injury suffered late last season, and his position will likely be filled by either fourth-year veteran Tony Moll or fourth-round pick T.J. Lang.

But remember, Tauscher was drafted in the seventh round and was able to start before the end of his rookie campaign. And with the injury struggles on the line last season, Moll gained valuable playing experience; sans those injuries, the line should be at least as good as it was last season.

So the Packers have three potential variables that could derail the 2009 campaign: OLB, OT, and competition from a number of teams. If any of those obstacles is greater than expected, they are likely to miss the playoffs.

Likewise, having injury problems even close to what were suffered in 2008 will make for another long season.

Then again, if someone steps up on the offensive line (fullback and tight end play could stand to improve, as well) and/or the team handles the transition to the 3-4 well, with either Matthews or Poppinga even playing solidly at OLB, this team has a chance to go deep into the playoffs.

Brett Favre Considering a Return with the Minnesota Vikings?

For years, we admired Brett Favre’s childlike love of the game and enthusiasm on the field. It is no wonder he was recently photographed on a lawn chair next to Goofy…

Now that he has been granted his request to be released by the New York Jets, speculation is flying that he will indeed attempt one more comeback and pursue his well-documented wish from last season to play for the Minnesota Vikings.

If he does, he is dead to me.

Let me start out by saying that I would have taken Brett Favre over any other quarterback to build my team around. I was outright belittled for putting him on a plateau with the likes of Joe Montana.

But if you don’t have a good line in front of Joe, you better have a great backup QB like Steve Young (simply not feasible in the modern salary-cap era), because he will miss time. He played behind the likes of Jesse Sapolu, Randy Cross, and Guy McIntyre, and still missed two seasons.

You are not much good to your team if you cannot be under center. Favre never missed a game, despite playing behind many suspect lines early in his career. Even when the Packers won the Super Bowl, he had three different left tackles that season.

However, while I will still assert that Brett is on par on the field with any quarterback, he appears to leave a lot to be desired off of it. Sure, he’s not “making it rain” in the nightclubs, and even quit drinking over a decade ago. But he is looking like as big a prima donna as any quarterback of his era.

I wrote much on this as it pertained to the Packers, and will not rehash it. But we can now add another chapter based on his time with the Jets…

First, he admitted that he had wanted to be play for the Vikings or the Bears for revenge. But I was willing to let that go when he admitted it and conceded that it was not the right thing to do: Brett is an emotional player, and the team’s response to his announcement that he was coming back was not only unexpected but disappointing. He reacted emotionally.

But then over the season, we receive a credible report that he fed information to his former team’s opponent. His denial was followed it up with the assertion that even if he had done it, there were no rules against it. Why would one make this point if one did not commit the offense?

Later, he had an issue with coach Eric Mangini for being too harsh. He went rogue late in the season and cost his team the playoffs, throwing nine picks against two scores in the final five games en route to four losses. He even drew the ire of teammates.

Now, after costing his new team a third-round pick, he retires, but then demands his release.

I do not want to jump to conclusions, but I am only human. What would make a retired player’s release urgent if he were not planning to return?

And since he wanted to play for the Vikings and they are completely lacking a QB, why would he not want to stick it to his former team twice? They are the only contending team he would greatly improve since they have no established quarterback.

Given all that has happened, if he is healthy it is hard to see him not going to the Vikings. I hope I am wrong, because right now what he has done for us outweighs what he has done to us.

But if I am right, I will be leading the charge to keep him from entering the Hall of Fame as a Packer.

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