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No Man Better for the Job : Why Kyle Orton Will Excel for the Denver Broncos
Published: July 30, 2009
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Let’s clear the air.
Brandon Marshall will stay in Denver.
At least this year.
Now, with that being said, let’s focus on Kyle Orton, the man traded from the Bears to the Broncos for Jay Cutler.
With all the Cutler talk that has been going on, it’s time we focus on the other side of the trade and the man who will lead Denver into the playoffs, and put them in contention once again to win the AFC West.
Before people begin to list Orton’s NFL statistics with the Chicago Bears, let’s address them.
2005 (Rookie Year): 51.6 percent completion, 1,869 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He started 15 games for the Bears, leading them to a 10-5 record before he was replaced for former first round draft pick Rex Grossman. Minus a five interception game against the Cincinatti Bengals, a decent rookie season for a fourth round pick out of Purdue.
2006: Chicago decided to sign free agent Brian Griese, demoting Orton to third string. Grossman “led” the team to the Super Bowl, but poor performances both during the regular season and post season, led to him being replaced in 2007 by Griese, and then Orton.
2007: Orton played in the final three games of the season, in his debut he was 22-38 for 184 yards and one interception. He ended the year with 478 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He improved upon his 51.6 completion percentage to 53.8 percent.
2008: Kyle was named the starter, out right. He started 15 games, completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 2,972 yards 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
These may seem like mediocre numbers at best to many critics and skeptics out there, but the Bears, for the past four years have not only lacked a premiere quarterback, but a starting wide receiver as well; at least when Orton was at the helm.
In 2005, Muhsin Muhammed led the team with 64 receptions for 750 yards and four touchdowns. Behind him was Justin Gage with 31 receptions for 346 yards and two touchdowns. The third leading receiver?
Running back Thomas Jones.
In 2008, rookie running back Matt Forte was the team’s leading receiver with 63 receptions for 477 yards and four touchdowns. Tight end Greg Olson was the second leading man with 54 receptions, 574 yards and five touchdowns.
Lastly, was return man-converted-to-wide-receiver, Devin Hester with 51 catches for 565 yards and three touchdowns.
In 2008 for the Broncos, Brandon Marshall had 104 receptions for 1265 yards and 12 touchdowns. Rookie Eddie Royal had 91 catches for 980 yards and five touchdowns.
After him was slot receiver Brandon Stokley with 49 grabs for 528 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Tony Scheffler rounded out the group with 41 receptions for 645 yards and three touchdowns.
Last time I checked, all four of these men were still in Denver (no matter how hard one wants to get out).
With that being said let us travel back to 2005, when a college senior from Altoona, Iowa was preparing to enter the NFL Draft.
Coming out of Purdue, Orton was one of the nation’s best passers.
A preseason All-American, rated the third best quarterback in the nation by Phil Steele, he was considered by The Sporting News to be the preseason Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, and was touted to be the Most Accurate Passer, have the Strongest Arm, and be “Coolest in the Clutch” in the Big Ten by Lindy’s Sports.
In his final game as a quarterback, Orton threw for 522 yards, tying a record held by a former Boilermaker QB, Drew Brees. Needless to say, Orton was in good company. He ended his career with 9,337 yards, with 63 touchdown passes and 28 interceptions.
Every scout praised Orton for his accuracy:
“does not make many mistakes with the ball, and is accurate in most areas..”-Len Pasquarelli
“…can fit the ball into some tight spots in coverage. Shows excellent touch and accuracy when throwing vertically…”-ESPN Draft Tracker
Yet, they all criticized him for the same thing as well, slow delivery and his lack of experience in a pro-style offense:
“Elongated delivery is a big concern. He needs to improve his mechanics by getting the ball up and quickening his delivery…is he a bit of a system quarterback?”-Draft Tracker
“Played in a quarterback-friendly offense, often works out from the shotgun, and lacks top-shelf arm strength. Has an elongated throwing motion, and throws sidearm way too often…”-Len Pasquarelli
As Aaron Rodgers can attest, when scouts begin to knock your throwing motion, your stock falls.
So he was drafted in the fourth round, and has done nothing, besides get better since he entered the league.
He led the team to a 10-5 record as a rookie, and was wrongly benched.
Then came back in 2008 and led the Bears to a 9-7 record without a number one receiver.
He improved his completion percentage from 2005 by nearly six percent in 2008, and in the last three games of the season Orton completed 71 of 109 passes for 903 yards with five touchdowns, no interceptions and a 106.2 passer rating.
That’s a 65.1 completion percentage.
The comparison may be unfair, but it took his predecessor Drew Brees, three years before he cemented his place as a good, if not great quarterback in the NFL.
Is it fair to say that by Orton’s eight or ninth year in the league he’ll be throwing for 5,000 yards in Denver?
Probably not.
But I think Orton is wrongly perceived by the media, and possibly Broncos’s faithful. He is not a conservative, dink and dunk passer. You don’t throw for 522 yards by throwing screens, and you don’t throw for nearly 10,000 yards in three years by throwing ten yard out patterns.
Orton is a gunslinger, do not underestimate him.
Just give him the weapons he needs, e.g. Marshall, Royal, Stokley, Schleffler.
Denver fans, if you were worried about Kyle Orton, you need not be.
In Illinois we have a theory; when a player leaves a Chicago team, he naturally gets better.
Just sit back and enjoy watching Orton get better Bronco fans.
To encourage thought here’s one more statistic:
He’s 21-13 as a starter, Cutler was 17-20.
Is Larry Johnson Washed Up, Or a Victim of the Curse of 400 Carries?
Published: July 29, 2009
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2005 was an unfortunate year for the Kansas City Chiefs.
At 10-6, they became the sixth team in NFL history to miss the wild card with double-digit wins; but for one Chief, it was bittersweet.
One man had finished with 1,750 yards and 20 touchdowns and was the NFL’s third leading rusher.
That man was Larry Johnson.
In his third year with the team, he was named to the Pro Bowl. It was the beginning of a new era at Arrowhead Stadium, and around the league, as well.
His 336 carries were cause for concern though, (Johnson only became the starter Week Eight against the Chargers).
It was smooth sailing for Larry Johnson, however. He was touted as the next big thing. Not only were NFL analysts predicting success in 2006, but even Fantasy analysts were suggesting that LJ was the second or third best running back to draft.
The former Nittany Lion didn’t disappoint in ’06. If anything, he was better than ever. He was the second leading rusher with 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns. He was back in the Pro Bowl, but again his workload set off red flags.
416 carries. It was, and still is an NFL record. He surpassed Jamal Anderson’s previous record of 410 attempts.
LaDainian Tomlinson, the leading rusher in 2006, only had 368 carries. He had 26 more yards than Johnson on 68 less carries.
In 2007, after clearly outperforming his rookie contract, Johnson demanded a new deal. He even sat out of training camp. He finally got a deal done but only made it nine games before being injured.
When he went out in the Week Nine game against Green Bay, he had 158 carries and 554 yards.
He was on pace for 280 carries, which would have tied him for ninth with Marshawn Lynch in 2007.
In 2008, LJ only played in 12 games. He was suspended weeks seven thru nine for violating team rules. He was then suspended again by Commissioner Goodell for his behavior outside of football (four different arrests and charges for assault).
He ended 2008 with 874 yards and 198 carries. For the first time since 2004, Larry Johnson wasn’t in the top ten for rushing attempts.
That year, he was was on pace for 264 carries, which would have placed him 11th on the list.
Johnson seems a lot to me like another former Big Ten running back that got burned out quickly.
He joins that group with none other than Heisman winner, Eddie George.
From his entrance into the league in 1996, to his departure from the Oilers/Titans organization in 2003, George averaged 341 carries a season. George only played in 14 games with the Dallas Cowboys after he signed with them in 2004, rushing for a career-low 432 yards.
In his first four seasons before 2000, George rushed for 5,365 yards. George began to decline after 2000 in which he had 403 attempts. After 2000, in his final four seasons, he rushed for 3,567 yards.
400 attempts in a season seems to be the kiss of death for all that have embarked upon its quest.
Jamal Anderson had three consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons before 1998 when he had 410 attempts.
He had one 1,000 yard season after that, and two seasons under 200 yards. Four years without missing a start turned into 21 starts in 48 games his final three years.
James Wilder had two full seasons as the starter in Tampa Bay. In 1984, he had 405 attempts for 1,544 yards. The next year it was 365 attempts for 1,300 yards.
Then it was 190 carries for 704 yards.
106 for 488.
86 for 343.
70 for 244.
And finally, 11 attempts for 51 yards.
So far, Wilder is the only back to have a 1,200+ yard season after joining the 400 club.
It might be unfair to say Larry Johnson is washed up, but consider this: His stats are already in decline after his glorious 416-carry season.
He is 29 years old; come November 19, 2009, Mr. Johnson will be 30, another number many pros (running backs, in particular) fear.
This upcoming season will be the deciding factor.
With Matt Cassel at quarterback and the departure of Tony Gonzalez, the Chiefs will need Johnson to return to his 2005-’06 form to take the pressure off of Cassel.
Should I bother to mention that in six years, Larry Johnson has only had two 1,000 yard seasons?
I guess that’s a story for another time.
Hopefully, LJ can break the curse.
