Fantasy Football Success: Know Your Scoring System!

Every fantasy football magazine sells you their ranking for each position. Sure, those are great and helpful. But that alone won’t get you fantasy success.  In my time in fantasy football I have realized that all you need to do is make the playoffs and anything can happen. You can gain your points on your adversaries just by knowing the scoring system.

1. The six point touchdown

There is nothing I love more than being in a fantasy league with a custom scoring system and with half the owners not knowing the scoring system. Most leagues provide  you with six points for a passing touchdown, a point for 25 yards passing, six points per rushing touchdown and ten rushing yards for a point. 

Just think before you pick here.  Last year Adrian Peterson finished with 1885 yards and 10 TDs, so that works out to 248 points for the season. Michael Turner had 1740 yards and 17 TDs, which is 276 points. DeAngelo Williams had 1636 yards and 20 TDs for 283 points. 

Now if you look at some of the quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers had 4038 yards and 28 TDs, which comes to 329 points. Philip Rivers threw for 4009 yards and 34 TDs for 364 points and Drew Brees had 5069 yards and 34 TDs for 406 points. 

Reasonable minds say you still need to take Adrian Peterson with the top pick because of his dominance and his team’s commitment to the run, but last year there were 11 QBs with more than 20 TDs, which was higher than any running back’s total.  There is a 123-point difference between Brees and Williams. That’s roughly seven or eight points a game.  So knowing your scoring system can help you gain extra points per game. 

2. The point per reception

The PPR league, which is gaining some popularity in the fantasy world, really changes around the ADP (average draft position) of players.  When you are looking to draft a running back, if its a PPR league you need to be wise. 

Turner and Peterson don’t catch the ball a lot.  Players like Chris Johnson, Darren Mcfadden and Reggie Bush all get kicks up because they catch passes like a receiver.  Receivers like Wes Welker and Eddie Royal both get a lot of receptions but don’t get a ton of TDs. 

If they average six receptions a game, then you’re going to get at least six points and the yardage. We’ll give them 50 yards a game, so that’s good for 11 points a game. 

So pay attention to the high reception guys. They can give you a few extra points here and there. Remember you get one point for the catch even if it’s a pass for zero yards or negative yards. 

3. Know your bonus points

If your league has bonus points available, then be aware of them.  If you get five points for a 50-yard field goal, two points for a certain amount of receptions per game, or if there are yardage bonuses, make sure you know about them. 

If you look back and you can get five points a game from your QB and three points from your WR/RB, then you get two points for a bonus, you have been able to find 10 extra points for the week. 

Now it won’t work out like this every weekm but one extra win a season could be all you need to scoop up a playoff birth and a possible Super Bowl Championship and fantasy immortality. Happy drafting

Redraft Leagues: Drafting Outside the Box

The redraft league is the most common type of fantasy football league. There are no long-term commitments and even the casual fan can get into it with out much knowledge.

The age-old theory is draft running backs and then when you are done, draft more running backs. The “Running Back Stud Theory” as it is coined by some of the fantasy football magazines out there. 

Now, I am not suggesting that this idea doesn’t work, because if you drafted Adrian Peterson or Brian Westbrook, then took Michael Turner, and followed that up with the committee back DeAngelo Williams, you looked like a genius and most likely walked all the way to the Super Bowl. 

But the scenario I just laid out would have taken tons of luck and some brain dead owners in your league. 

To counter the running back stud theory, I’m suggesting that the trend has now shifted much as it has shifted in the NFL—teams no longer rely on one back to carry the load and those teams that do quickly found out that you need a good backup in case of an injury. 

Take the Rams for example. Steven Jackson goes down and they have no one—well, there went their season.

More and more teams are moving towards the running back by committee leaving fantasy owners to guess who is going to score the touchdowns and who is going to get the most touches. 

 

Almost every NFL team has only one good WR. Arizona is pretty much the only NFL team with two legit all-stars.

I am sure everyone can say well this guy or that guy, but sit and think would Wes Welker catch 100 balls if Moss wasn’t there? Yes, Welker is a viable fantasy option but would you choose him to be your No. 1? I sure wouldn’t. 

People such as Larry Fitzgerald, Andre and Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, and Anquan Boldin are the cream of the crop. 

When you pick in your fantasy drafts in a ten-team league I would venture to say that at least six of the top 10 are running backs. This year, after Adrian Peterson every running back has a huge question mark in one area or another. I am not going to take time to break them all down maybe I’ll do that in a future article if the demand is there. 

The top wide receivers don’t have a lot of question marks. I think the only one with a question mark is Calvin Johnson and that is because the unknown quarterback situation.  Other than that there is very little to worry about there.    

 

So my suggestion is to create the apply a new theory, Wide Receiver Stud Theory. If your league allows trades pre-draft, try to move down if you’re picking anywhere other than No. 1.

If you’re able to, take Fitzgerald at around eight or so and then in round two, grab Andre Johnson. You’re looking at two of the top wideouts no questions asked. 

Now, you will not get premium backs. Think about it though: In the 3rd and 4th rounds you should be able to get running backs such as Ronnie Brown, Earnest Graham, Darren McFadden, Chris Wells, and Knowshon Moreno. You’re taking the same risk as the running back stud theory guy but you have two near-sure things as opposed to one. 

 

The bottom line to the redraft league draft is rounds 3-9. In those rounds you have to pick the guys that are over looked that are going to do well or you find the diamond in the rough. Players like DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner were not picked in the top two rounds in last year’s redraft leagues.

One of the main reasons I feel that selecting wideouts is a safe plan is that the stud wideouts are always going to get some yards and they should score touchdowns at a similar rate to many running backs.

Their injury potential is much lower than a running back. Stud wideouts will, at most, face a double-team, stud backs will be met by eight-man defensive fronts.  Defensive strategy almost always begins with stopping the running game and then forcing the offense to pass.   

Sometimes thinking outside the box will allow you to gain a huge advantage over your fellow owners. If you’re sitting there with three stud wideouts you instantly have a nice asset to trade for one of those elite backs.

Just think back to last year: There were about six wideouts that couldn’t be had for anything ( Fitz, Boldin, Marshall, Andre and Calvin Johnson, and Steve Smith.) 

For running backs that number was cut in half (AP, DeAngelo, and Turner).

Now you may disagree with how I feel about some of these players or how I ranked them, but I do think the idea of wideouts gaining value is valid.

Think about the teams that won your league last year who were their key players. In my leagues the common players were Fitzgerald and Marshall—Fluke, I think not.  

 

Check out my dynasty articles as well and let me know if there is something else you would like me to write on.

 

 

Dynasty Rookie Draft: Running Back Breakdown

This is the second installment of four.  This time I will rank the running backs.  Again I’ll provide a short term impact, long term impact, and overall projection.  For the running backs I will rank them in fantasy order, but I will also provide the rank by impact in the real life game of football.

Running Backs:

1. Chris Wells (Arizona Cardinals): first nfl rank

Short Term: Wells, in my opinion, was the best pure back in the draft.  He runs with power and is hard to take down.  He can run to the outside and between the tackles. 

The only thing that could be a problem for Wells is that the Cardinals have two of the best wide receivers in the league, and they got to the Superbowl by throwing it a ton.  Wells will provide a balance, but he needs them to commit to the run for him to reach his full potential. 

Long Term: He could be big time down the road, once Warner retires.  With a new quarterback the run will be much more important and should be focused on.  The carries should increase for Wells and he should assert himself as the number one back leaving Tim Hightower in his dust. 

Plus no one knows how the Boldin situation will pan out so they could be looking at a one man show at wide receiver, thus even further causing the Cardinals to rely on the run.

Projection: Baring an injury Wells should be a punishing back that gets anywhere from seven to 12 touchdowns a season and somewhere north of one thousand yards rushing.  I feel that he should be the first person taken in dynasty drafts.  He has the best situation of any of the running backs and he will make an immediate impact.

2. LeSean McCoy ( Philadelphia Eagles): third nfl rank

Short Term: Westbrook is hurt… surprise surprise.  The Eagles are running out of time they need to make a move soon.  McNabb is getting older and the defense is aging. 

They will count on McCoy to lighten the load on Westbrook and he is just one tackle away from being the number one back on a team that features the running back as the center piece of the offense.  Not to mention Westbrook has been a top fantasy producer and his back ups have come in and done very well also.

Long Term: Westbrook is old and hurting.  Sooner rather than later he will be taking over the work load and become the number one back in the city of brotherly love.  McCoy is a Westbrook clone so he should have no problem stepping in for Westbrook when needed.

Projection: The potential to become a top five back is real. If he can stay healthy and pick up the speed of the game he could be a huge steal for some one about two to three years down the road.  I would suggest taking him in the top five in any rookie fantasy draft. He will be able to be had a little later because he doesn’t have the star studded names like Wells and Moreno.

3. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos): second nfl rank

Short Term: Denver has a ton of running backs with out a ton of talent.  Moreno should have no problem taking the number one spot.  He can do it all, but McDaniels could be the issue for him.  McDaniels has used a different running back for ever situation in New England and I don’t see that changing too much.  He will make an impact though.

Long Term: He is by far the best back on the team and he should take a choke hold on the running back position by the end of the season.  Again I am worried that he might be stuck as a great back in a committee.  He has the skill set and the offensive line but I am still a little frightened by McDaniels.

Projection: He could become a superstar.  I feel he has more star potential than Wells and McCoy, but who knows whats going to happen in Denver.  Both Philly and Arizona are much more stable.

If McDaniels doesn’t run Cutler out of town he is hands down the best value, but with Orton I worry that people will not fear the pass and they will key in on Moreno.  Still he is far to good to pass up on, he is the safe pick at No. 2 overall. 

4. Donald Brown (Indianpolis Colts): fourth nfl rank

Short Term: As an Addai owner, I know how durable he is.  Addai gets banged up so often it’s sickening.  Brown will get a few starts in the season and with Manning working the helm Brown will get his touches.  Brown could steal the show and have a great season much like Addai did in his rookie year.

Long Term: They have a great one two punch in Indy.  You can count on Addai getting hurt so he will get some starts and he may steal a goal line touchdown or two.  Plus you never know if they will resign or extend Addai so in a couple years you could have the number one back in Indy.

Projection: He will be a good spot starter or bye week starter in his first season.  With a well timed injury you could land the No. 1 back in Indy for a playoff run.  I see him as a solid but not awesome player.  I would select him in the middle to end of the first round.  He will help out and with an injury he could be an every week starter.

5. Shon Greene (New York Jets): fifth nfl rank

Short Term: He will see some carries but is going to need an injury to get significant playing time.  He doesn’t have blazing speed but he does have “it.”  He can play and the Jets are going to run the ball a lot.  He could steal some goal line touches and he could also see some time in the passing game.

Long Term: Jones is going to be gone soon, and I am not really sure what to make of Leon Washington.  Some games he is great some games he doesn’t take a snap on offense.  Greene will take over for Jones when he departs New York so you will have a solid player here once he takes the controls.

Projection: He is a late first round to early second round pick.  He will not do too much this year but he will make an impact in the coming seasons.  Plus there is no telling how the Jones hold-out will play out so he could see playing time sooner rather than later.

Honorable Mentions:

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Glenn Coffee (San Francisco 49ers): Gore presents a problem, but he could make an impact in short yardage or if Gore goes down.

Javon Ringer (Tennessee Titans): Needs an injury but he had the skills in college monitor him during camp and see what they think about him.  LenDale’s contract is up after this year so that could help.

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James Davis (Cleveland Browns): Lewis is old, and the Browns are bad.  Davis could make an impact if Lewis goes down or if they try and make a youth movement.

 

The Wide Receivers rankings will be up in a little bit. Also if anyone wants to know about a certain player or how I feel about a rookie just drop a note an I’ll get back to you ASAP.  Please refer to my article on the QB’s if you want to see how they are ranked http://bleacherreport.com/articles/195638-dynasty-rookie-draft-quarterback-breakdown. 

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