Best and Worst Case Scenario of Every AFC Playoff Team

Catch the NFC Scenarios here.

No. 6 seed: Baltimore Ravens

 

With Ed Reed in and out of the lineup, the concern has been that the Ravens’ defense has been suffering. In reality, the Ravens’ defense is still a solid unit, allowing 17 points of less in eight of their last ten games.

The concern with the Ravens is more focused on the offense. The Ravens looked to be a complete team at the start of their season, scoring more than 30 points in their first three games. That’s the same number of times they’ve hit 30 or more since Nov. 1. The Ravens’ feature a solid rushing attack, but Joe Flacco is limited in his options in the passing game.

Worst Case Scenario: The Ravens lost a game at New England earlier in the season when the Ravens’ passing attack failed to pick up a key fourth down. The Patriots focus on stopping the run, and Flacco struggles to move the ball. The Welker-less Patriots muster enough options to send the Ravens home with a disappointing loss.

Best Case Scenario: The Ravens don’t get far in the playoffs, but they get the satisfaction of avenging their Patriots loss and giving Bill Belichick and Tom Brady their first ever defeat in an opening playoff game. They bow out to the Colts in the divisional round but not without a fight.

 

 

No. 5 seed: New York Jets

 

The just-happy-to-be-here Jets may have gotten into the playoffs due to the Colts and Bengals playing out the string, but the Jets contain two parts of the formula for playoff success: the Jets have one the league’s best when it comes to their imposing rushing attack and they possess a solid defense.

Regardless of how the Bengals took their season finale, the Jets got a confidence boost in their 37-0 mauling of the Bengals. The main question mark this team has is how rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez will handle the pressure of a playoff game.

Worst Case Scenario: An emotional Bengals team comes out with a purpose in stopping the Jets rushing attack. The game falls into the hands of Sanchez and he makes several rookie mistakes. After last week, the Bengals return the favor by blowing out the Jets.

Best Case Scenario: The two teams that may have gifted the Jets a playoff spot become the Jets’ victims again when the stakes are higher. The Jets repeat their beating of the Bengals before stunning the Colts at home. The journey ends in San Diego, but Rex Ryan has a lot of momentum to challenge for the AFC East Division in 2010.

 

 

No. 4 seed: Cincinnati Bengals

 

For only the second time since 1990, the Bengals are in the playoffs. After starting the season an impressive 9-3, Cincinnati managed just one win in their last four games, and that was a late win over the lowly Chiefs. Are the Bengals still the same team that roared through the AFC North with a 6-0 record, or the one that was blown out by the Jets in the season finale?

Unlike the 2005 high flying team, the 2009 Bengals have built their success around a strong running game and a stout defense. Recent injuries to the defense suggest that Carson Palmer and the passing game may be needed to advance in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Darelle Revis shuts down Chad Ochocinco, limiting Palmer’s options in the passing game. The wear and tear on Cedric Benson shows as he’s unable to carry to load. On the other hand, the Jets’ rushing attack shows no wear and tear as it rolls over the injury-depleted Bengals’ defense.

Best Case Scenario: The Bengals have a little left in the tank and they shut down the Jets, giving the home faithful a much needed playoff win. While the Bengals squad can’t muster enough to upset the Colts, the franchise considers the season a success.

 

 

No. 3 seed: New England Patriots

 

The Patriots may have been one of the more dangerous teams to not earn a bye in the playoffs. That was until Wes Welker was injured and Brady lost his number one receiver.

Now the Patriots have to worry about who’s going to catch the ball if Randy Moss gets double covered. Still, it’s hard to rule out a Brady-led team that is coached by Bill Belichick.

Worst Case Scenario: Brady can’t find anyone to take Welker’s place. The Ravens abuse Moss and Ray Rice runs all over the the Patriots defense. The league’s most successful team of the last decade begins the new one with an embarrassing home playoff loss.

Best Case Scenario: Channeling the magic of the 2001 team, the underdog Patriots make an improbably run to the Super Bowl. After dispatching the Ravens, Bill Belichick finds a way to harass Philip Rivers. Without a running game, the heavily favored Chargers watch the Patriots beat them at home again (as they did in 2006). The Patriots don’t need a fourth down conversion to beat the Colts. In Miami, the Patriots ruin the story ending of Favre’s Vikings and claim their fourth Super Bowl title.

 

 

No. 2 seed: San Diego Chargers

 

After a 2-3 start, the Chargers are on a league-high 11-game winning streak. They may be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Philip Rivers has had a career year in leading a Charger offense that has six games of scoring 30 or more points.

While the defense isn’t as strong as it’s been in the past, it’s still a talented unit that’s full of speed. If the Chargers have a true weakness, it’s the rushing attack. San Diego is next to last in the league in rushing.

Worst Case Scenario: In 2006, the Chargers were the odds-on favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Instead, they were one-and-done in the playoffs, with a loss to the Patriots. History repeats itself as the Chargers get beat by New England. Norv Turner gets back on the hot seat, as many wonder if he’ll ever be able to reach the Super Bowl with so much talent.

Best Case Scenario: The Chargers easily handle the undermanned Patriots and with the Colts upset, the Chargers get to host the AFC Championship game. The Chargers beat the Bengals for the second time in a month and go to Miami on a wave of confidence. There, Rivers outplays Brees and becomes the third quarterback from the class of 2004 to hoist the Lombardi trophy.

 

 

No. 1 seed: Indianapolis Colts

 

You may have heard about the controversy surrounding the Colts recently. The Colts started the season 14-0 and inspired a lot of talk about going for a perfect season, but the Colts’ management had other ideas. The starters were pulled against the Jets and since then Colts’ fans have been seething about the decision to rest key players (and secretly concerned that they are one Peyton Manning injury away from seeing a Curtis Painter-led team).

But in reality, a Manning-led Colts team has yet to lose again. The Colts have had many close calls, but Manning has been his best when the pressure is on. The Colts may have issues, primarily their league-worst rushing attack, but the Colts started 14-0 for a reason.

Worst Case Scenario: The Colts start the game flat and can’t muster a comeback as the Bengals use their ground game to play keep-away from Manning. For the third straight year, the Colts’ playoff run ends as soon as it begins. Just weeks away from wondering if they can go 16-0 and win the Super Bowl, the Colts are left with nothing but disappointment.

Best Case Scenario: Colts beat the Bengals easily and prepare to host the surging Chargers. Manning outplays Rivers as the Colts regain the look they had through much of the season. In the Super Bowl, the league ends up getting the dream matchup, Colts vs. Saints.

Manning and Brees put on a show, with Manning getting the ball and a chance to win with just minutes remaining. For the seventh time this year, Manning leads the Colts to a come from behind victory and wins his second Super Bowl MVP award.

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Best & Worst Case Scenarios of Every NFC Playoff Team

The NFL’s second season is about to begin, and the playoff picture could be described as muddled at best.

The No.1 seeds are a combined 1-5 over the last three weeks of the season.

The Patriots and Cardinals suffered injuries to key players in the final weeks.

The Jets and Cowboys, who looked like they were falling apart in early December, are suddenly hot topics.

Which teams can win the Super Bowl? Which ones are destined to be one and done? Let’s take a look at each team and their best and worst case scenarios heading into the postseason.

This is Part One, looking at the NFC.

No. 6 seed: Philadelphia Eagles

Before their meltdown against the Cowboys in the season finale, the Eagles had won six straight games and looked to be one of the league’s better teams. That makes their Dallas debacle even stranger.

There’s no doubt the Eagles are one of those teams that can get hot on offense. Donovan McNabb has a wealth of talent to distribute the ball to, and while their defense isn’t as formidable as it usually is, it’s still a solid unit.

Worst Case Scenario: The third time isn’t the charm as the Cowboys continue to flummox the Eagles. McNabb and company leave Dallas with more questions than answers as the Cowboys repeat last week’s blowout win.

Best Case Scenario: The Eagles repeat last year’s run to the NFC Championship, ruining Dallas’ resurgence and upsetting the falling Saints before finally losing to the Vikings. Team rides the postseason wave and becomes the divisional favorites next season.

 

No. 5 seed: Green Bay Packers

The Packers have lost only once since November 8, and that was on a last second play against the Steelers. In any other year, Aaron Rodgers would be an MVP candidate. His TD to INT ratio is over 4:1, better than any Favre-led Packer team.

On defense, the Packers have allowed no more than 14 points in five of the last six games. Charles Woodson may be having his best year after snatching a career high nine interceptions.

Worst Case Scenario: Rodgers and Kurt Warner stage an epic shootout with Warner getting the last drive and the win. The Packers go home too early.

Best Case Scenario: Both the Packers and Eagles earn upsets in the first round. The Packers travel to Minnesota and win one for Packer Nation. The upstarts fall in the NFC Championship game to New Orleans, but ride the postseason run to contender status in 2010.

 

No.4 seed: Arizona Cardinals

Haven’t we seen this movie before? Just like the 2008 Cardinals, the 2009 version goes into the post season with more questions than answers.

They’ve been blown out by San Francisco and Green Bay. They had an impressive win over Minnesota. Arizona has looked brilliant and bad all in the last month of the season.

Which team will show up in the playoffs? No one knows, probably not even the Cardinals.

Worst Case Scenario: Warner comes out absolutely flat. The defense has no answer for Rodgers and the Packers. Last year’s Cinderella goes out with merely a whimper this year in a disappointing blowout in front of the home crowd.

Best Case Scenario: Cinderella gets to wear her glass slipper. After disposing of the Packers, the Cardinals’ offense outshines New Orleans and Minnesota on the way to a second consecutive Super Bowl. They luckily avoid the Colts, the one team that matches up with the Cardinals very well offensively, and instead face the Chargers. The Cardinals finish the game and Warner retires a Super Bowl champion.

 

No. 3 seed: Dallas Cowboys

Three straight wins to end the season may not be an overly impressive streak, but the Cowboys are still one of the hottest teams at the start of the playoffs. Why? Because of the statement win they had against the Saints three weeks ago.

Sure, the Saints have since faced many issues, but at the time the Saints were the measuring stick to see what type of team the Cowboys had. Since that game, the Cowboys have yet to allow a point after dismantling divisional foes Washington and Philadelphia. 

The Cowboys have always had talent on both sides of the ball, but now they seem to finally be playing like it.

Worst Case Scenario: Tony Romo struggles to get on track as the playoff savvy Eagles stage an upset. Wade Phillips is fired the next day and Cowboy fans are left to wonder if this team will ever live up to expectations.

Best Case Scenario: The Cowboys drill the Eagles and then pressure Brett Favre into throwing away the divisional round game. Jerry Jones gets to host the NFC Championship game, and the Cowboys beat the Cardinals before a record-setting crowd. At the Super Bowl, America’s Team regains its crown, beating the Colts for the title.

 

No. 2 seed: Minnesota Vikings

There’s nothing like playing a reeling Giants team to cure what ails you. Did the victory over New York fix the problems that appeared during the 1-3 run the Vikings had in the previous weeks? Or did it mask the issues that could come back an haunt this team?

On paper, this team has everything you need to win a Super Bowl. Imposing defense. Solid rushing attack. Veteran quarterback. It remains to be seen if Minnesota can put it all together and look like the team that started the season 10-1.

Worst Case Scenario: The defense can’t pressure the quarterback. Adrian Peterson’s fumble problems continue, and Favre throws a costly interception late. And it’s all against the Packers. Favre announces his retirement within weeks of the loss, and all the fans have left of this season is Brad Childress.

Best Case Scenario: The Vikings exact revenge on the Cardinals while the Saints are upended by Green Bay. In an emotional game in front of the home crowd, Favre and the Minnesota offense beat the Packers for the third time this season. Then, the Vikings win twice in Miami, once with a Super Bowl victory, and again when Favre announces he’ll return in 2010 to defend the title.

 

No. 1 seed: New Orleans Saints

After their commanding victory over the Patriots in prime time, you would have found it hard to find anyone that didn’t believe they were the best team in football. But that was way back on November 30.

Since then, the Saints have lost three straight. They’ve shown flashes of life at times in those losses, but it’s hard to ignore that the Saints’ offense isn’t as potent as it was earlier in the season.

Still, they hold the top seed and they’ll be a tough outing for anyone that has to travel to the Super Dome.

Worst Case Scenario: The Saints’ inconsistencies continue in their opening playoff game. The Cardinals are the ones to show off their offensive prowess. A miracle season ends in disaster. With the Panthers looking good at the end of the season, even the divisional title defense has question marks.

Best Case Scenario: The team that drilled the Patriots does the same to the playoff field. Drew Brees proves his name belongs with the greats as he beats Warner, Favre, and Peyton Manning as the Saints give the greatest gift to the city of New Orleans, a Super Bowl championship.

Part Two: The AFC tomorrow.

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The Best Colts’ Games of the Decade

Okay, so maybe the last Indianapolis Colts game of 2009 won’t make anyone’s list as the team’s best of the decade, but it can’t overshadow the fact that it’s been one helluva decade for the Colts.

A record number of wins for a franchise in a decade.

A record number of consecutive wins in the regular season.

A Super Bowl championship.

Considering the Colts only had one season with more than 10 wins in the previous decade and a half (and that came in 1999), the Colts’ accomplishments are quite remarkable.

In the past 10 years, there’s been several great games making it difficult to pick the 10 most memorable.

To start, here’s a quick look at some honorable mentions that just missed the list followed by the list of the 10 best Colts games.

 

Honorable Mention

2007 Colts 41, Saints 10

The blowout knocks this game off the list, but the Colts kicked off their Super Bowl defense in style and ruining Jason David’s homecoming.

 

2005 Colts 17, Cardinals 13

After the loss of Tony Dungy’s son, this was an emotional win for the Colts. With starters resting, Jim Sorgi threw two touchdowns and the defense held the Cardinals at the goal line in the end for the win.

 

2003 Divisional Playoff Colts 38, Chiefs 31

The punters took the day off in this one as neither team needed them. Peyton Manning threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns as the Colts, surprisingly, held the lead throughout the game.

 

2008 Colts 24, Steelers 20

It was the most impressive win during the Colts winning streak after starting the season 3-4. The future 2008 Super Bowl champions were at home and playing well, but Dominic Rhodes’ swing pass gave the Colts a late lead. Keiwan Ratliff made an excellent interception against Ben Roethlisberger to help pull the upset.

 

2005 Colts 40, Patriots 21

The Patriots had owned the Colts. This game was the turning point. The Colts went into New England, a place that had held playoff disappointments the previous two seasons, and came away with an impressive victory. The Patriots managed only one more win against the Colts the rest of the decade.

 

10. 2005: Colts 45, Rams 28

What’s most impressive about the score is the fact that the Colts fell behind 17-0 in this game. But the Colts’ game plan had the letters “Don’t Panic” printed in large, friendly letters way before this season.

The Colts went on a 45-3 run, highlighted by a Manning to Marvin Harrison six-yard touchdown pass that set them apart as the most prolific passing combination in NFL history.

 

9. 2008: Colts 31, Texans 27 & 2009: Colts 35, Texans 27

I’ve combined these two games into one ranking because the plot line is the same. Texans get big lead. Texans make mistakes. Colts capitalize on mistakes. Texans lose again.

The 2008 contest marked the end of the Sage Rosenfels show in Houston. Manning’s touchdown pass to Tom Santi looked like nothing more than a way to make the score respectable until Robert Mathis caused Rosenfels to fumble, and Gary Brackett returned the ball 68 yards for the touchdown. Rosenfels turned the ball over again, and Manning’s five-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne finished the comeback.

The following year, the Texans lead 20-7 at halftime, but the Colts woke up in the second half. Two Manning touchdown passes gave the Colts a slim lead, but the game was really decided when Matt Schaub threw an interception that Clint Session returned for a touchdown, giving the Colts a 28-20 lead. The Texans last score was too late to stop the Colts’ second consecutive comeback at Houston.

 

8. Super Bowl XLI: Colts 29, Bears 17

It may not have been the best played game. The soggy Super Bowl made for a turnover-filled affair. The Colts adjusted the best to the conditions, controlling the game with an efficient short-passing game and some solid running from Rhodes and Joseph Addai.

Outside of one early Thomas Jones run, the Colts’ defense slowed the Bears’ rushing attack enough to force Rex Grossman to make plays. Grossman responded by throwing two interceptions, highlighted by the game clinching interception return for a touchdown by Kelvin Hayden.

The Super Bowl win brought a lot of respect to the Colts organization. The monkey was removed from both Dungy and Manning’s back, but they really had accomplished that two weeks earlier.

 

7. 2004: Colts 45, Packers 31

This was the game that set off Manning’s record setting touchdown pace of the 2004 season. Brett Favre was determined to keep up with Manning. The teams combined for 35 points in the first quarter off five touchdown passes. By the end of the game, Favre and Manning had combined to throw for 753 yards and nine touchdowns.

Even though the Colts took command as the game wore on, the contest is a classic gunfight between Favre and Manning. For Manning, it was the first of four games in the 2004 season that he would throw at least five touchdowns.

 

6. 2004 Wildcard: Colts 49, Broncos 24

In 2003, the Broncos were embarrassed by the Colts in the wildcard round 41-10. In an effort to improve the holes in their passing defense, the Broncos brought in all-world cornerback Champ Bailey. However, the result was the same as Manning torched the Bronco’s secondary for 458 yards.

What most people remember from this game was the Harrison touchdown where he caught the ball and fell down. Three Bronco defenders stood around but none touched him. Harrison got up and ran in for the score, and the rout was on.

 

5. 2005: Colts 45, Bengals 37

Perhaps I’m biased as this is the only Colts road game I’ve ever attended, but it’s hard to argue about a game that had over 950 yards of offense.

Much like the shootout between Favre and Manning in 2004, this one featured Manning versus the up-and-coming Carson Palmer. The story of the week was how  Palmer and the artist formerly known as Chad Johnson had gone to Indianapolis to see how Manning and Harrison worked together. While Palmer connected with Johnson eight times for 189 yards and a score, Manning spread the ball around as both Dallas Clark and Wayne amassed over 115 yards receiving each.

In the end, the Bengals bid to dethrone the Colts came up short when they failed to recover an onside kick near the end of the game. The win moved the Colts to 10-0 and off to their best start ever, at the time.

 

4. 2004: Colts 34, Charger 31 (OT)

See, the Colts can beat the Chargers! Although of all the Chargers-Colts recent contests, this one actually had the potential to be a dominant Charger victory. The Chargers took a 24-9 lead after Drew Brees hit Antonio Gates for a four-yard touchdown pass. The Colts responded only to see the Chargers regain their 15-point lead after LaDainian Tomlinson’s 16-yard touchdown run made it 31-16.

Rhodes sparked this particular Colts’ comeback victory with an 88-yard kickoff touchdown return. Still down seven, Manning threw one of his most memorable touchdown passes, hitting Brandon Stokley on a deep post route that not only tied the game, but also gave Manning the season touchdown record. The RCA Dome may never have been louder than it was at that point. Mike Vanderjagt’s field goal in overtime capped the comeback win.

This matchup is the main reason why it would be fun to see a Saints-Colts Super Bowl just to see Brees and Manning matchup again.

 

3. 2003: Colts 38, Buccaneers 35 (OT)

Though this wasn’t Manning’s first comeback win, it was the one that vaulted the Colts into the mainstream.

The game itself was pretty abysmal for the Colts early on. It seemed to be Tampa Bay’s night as every bounce went their way. The most notable was Keenan McCardell’s fumble return for a touchdown after a wild play where the Colts’ Mike Doss had intercepted Brad Johnson only to fumble the ball away. The Colts trailed at halftime 21-0.

The Colts showed little life after that, but did eventually cut Tampa Bay’s lead to 28-14. However, Ronde Barber returned a Manning interception for a score and the Bucs led 35-14 in the fourth quarter.

Then the comeback happened.

Brad Pyatt returned the kickoff 90 yards setting up a James Mungro score. Tampa Bay couldn’t move the ball, so the Colts got another shot, this time scoring on a Manning-to-Harrison touchdown pass. The other Ricky Williams completed the amazing comeback with a one-yard plunge, forcing overtime.

The Colts kept things exciting in overtime. Vanderjagt badly missed his first chance to win to the game and nearly missed his second attempt that won it.

SI’s Peter King called it the best regular season game of the decade. It ranks only second on my list for regular season games, but it was a thriller and really set the tone for the franchise that no lead is insurmountable. That philosophy was definitely needed for the games remaining on the list.

 

2. 2009: Colts 35, Patriots 34

This game will forever be known as “The Call,” but it was much more than that.

For a half, the Patriots looked like the team they were in 2007. Tom Brady finally looked like his repaired knee was 100 percent, and Randy Moss simply could not be stopped. The Colts were sputtering on offense and New England built a sizable 24-7 lead.

Much like another memorable Patriots game, the Colts managed to score before the half and trailed 24-14 heading into the break.

The Patriots really lost the game in the third quarter, twice turning the ball over in the red zone as the Colts continued to struggle on offense. Brady then went back to Moss to seemingly ice the game at 31-14 at the start of the fourth quarter.

But, for some reason, that’s exactly when the Colts seem to make things interesting.

Pierre Garcon, who had been suffering through a miserable game until that moment, scored on a 29-yard pass from Manning to cut the lead to 10. The Patriots managed just a field goal off a Manning interception, and the Colts responded with a quick drive for another touchdown and trailed just 34-28 with four minutes left.

And then came “The Call.”

Patriot coach Bill Belichick decided not to give the ball back to Manning after seeing his defense give up a quick touchdown. New England went for it on fourth-and-two from their own 28 yard line, and Melvin Bullit’s tackle saved the game.

Manning milked the clock before hitting Wayne on a quick slant with 13 seconds left, giving the Colts a very improbable 35-34 victory.

Amazing game, but not the best Colts game ever. It’s not even the best Colts-Patriots game ever.

 

1. 2006 AFC Championship: Colts 38, Patriots 34

This game had everything. Great comeback. Victory over bitter rival. Trip to Indianapolis’ first Super Bowl.

And it all looked like it wasn’t going to happen when Asante Samuel returned a Manning pass for a touchdown midway through the second quarter. Down 21-3, the Colts looked like they would blow another chance to beat New England in the playoffs.

The first key to the comeback was Adam Vinatieri’s field goal before halftime. While it only cut the lead to 21-6, it showed the Colts could move the ball, and they carried that momentum with them into the second half.

The Colts may have played their best half of football ever as they scored 32 points. What was unique was the ways in which the Colts scored. Manning scored on a quarterback sneak. Defensive tackle Dan Klecko caught a touchdown pass. Jeff Saturday recovered a fumble in the end zone for a score.

The Patriots produced only one touchdown in the second half as their lead slowly evaporated. After a Stephen Gostkowski field goal put New England up 34-31, the Colts got the ball with a chance to win the game. Manning drove the Colts to the New England three yard line where Saturday made the best block of his career, moving Vince Wolfork out of the way as Addai waltzed into the end zone. With a minute remaining, the Colts had their first lead of the day.

Brady’s comeback fell short as he was picked off by Marlin Jackson. The Colts went to the Super Bowl. It wasn’t just a great game. It it was a monumental one for the franchise, which is why I consider it the best Colts game of the decade.

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Colts’ Decision to Rest Goes Horribly Wrong

Champagne is a hot seller in South Florida tonight.

The dream of a perfect season, inspired by so many spectacular plays throughout the Colts’ 14-0 start, were dashed in a little more than a quarter. It ended up dying with little more than a whimper as the Jets pulled away to a 29-15 win.

I call it a dream, but it’s obvious now that Colts’ coach Jim Caldwell and GM Bill Polian didn’t share the dream. That’s fine. They make the decisions, I don’t.

But in so many ways, this decision may have backfired.

Before I begin my rambling, I must state the obvious. I was firmly entrenched in the “go for 16-0” camp. I completely understand the argument for saving your players for the playoffs, but I remember 2005 all too well. A hot Colts team rested many players late, and came out flat in their first playoff game.

I wouldn’t have batted an eye at a loss last week to Jacksonville. The Jaguars, like the Jets this week, were a team desperate to make the playoffs. A loss would have meant nothing to the Colts. Instead, most of the starters played throughout the game. Others saw spot duty. The result was a magnificent.

And suddenly perfection was within sight.

In 2005, the Colts were 13-0 and stumbled against San Diego. The loss meant nothing in the standings, and the argument to play for a perfect regular season was over.

Last week’s win gave the Colts a legitimate chance to finish 16-0. Wins against the offensively challenged Jets and the perpetually challenged Bills were doable.

For most of the night, it looked like the Colts would copy the game plan they had against Jacksonville.

And then the gameplan changed, and history was, well, history.

Now, besides saving the health of the starters for the playoffs, the other argument against perfection was the pressure it put on the team to keep winning. It was argued that a team would be better off losing in the regular season rather than losing in the playoffs.

But why lose at all?

I’d argue this puts even more pressure on the Colts. Suddenly, it’s the Super Bowl or bust for this team. 16-0, 15-1, or 14-2. It didn’t really matter how the Colts finished the season. With the start they had, not winning the Super Bowl would be remarkably disappointing for this team.

Now they have to win the Super Bowl. A 16-0 season would have put them in the history books forever.

People argue that the 2007 Patriots 16-0 is meaningless without the Super Bowl win. No one remembers the Super Bowl loser.

If that’s the case, why do we keep bringing the 2007 Patriots up?

Lose in the playoffs, and suddenly the 2009 team and all its accomplishments fade into history. It’s almost a shame considering how memorable this season has been.

But, honestly, I can get over all that. The Jets’ loss does mean absolutely nothing. Yet, it was the way it was handled that might mean trouble for the Colts down the road.

Up 15-10, Caldwell decided Peyton Manning had had enough. He was pulled, and Curtis Painter was brought in to finish the game. Rookie, meet the league’s best passing defense.

On a side note, shame on all the fans that booed Painter. I hated the decision, but he’s still a Colt.

Pulling Manning sent the message to the rest of the team that this game didn’t matter. And the rest of the team played like it.

The defense, which had played absolutely stellar for nearly three quarters, was suddenly letting the Jets run over, around, and on top of them.

In all, the Colts lost any will to win the game when Manning hit the bench. That’s disturbing.

In postgame interviews, Manning was diplomatic, talking about how it was the organization’s philosophy to rest for the playoffs. But for the Colts to roll over should be cause for concern.

Manning and the offense had moved the ball effectively. The defense had kept the Jets out of the end zone. Save for horrible coverage on Brad Smith’s kickoff return, the Colts’ performance was flawless for two and a half quarters.

It was abysmal for the remainder of the game.

Rarely do I see a poor game plan from the Colts, but tonight was one of those rare instances. The plan was to stick Painter in at some point, but the Colts didn’t seem to have a plan for Painter once he was in. Predictable play calling, such as starting out with first down runs, put Painter into must-pass situations. It was a no-win situation for Painter; not ideal for his first regular season action.

I feel I need to stress the fact that this loss was meaningless in the standings. But listen to the postgame interviews. This loss hurt. You don’t start 14-0 and not have a loss hurt.

Can this team rebound? Of course. If the 2009 Colts are anything, they are resilient. There’s little reason to doubt that this team won’t be ready for their first game of the playoffs.

Still, the loss, regardless of how you felt about going for 16-0, left a sour taste in a lot of mouths.

It’s been a while since the Colts and their fans have had this taste. Hopefully it’s a while before they have it again.

 

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Indianapolis Colts Love the Holidays

You have to wonder how NFL players and coaches feel about the holiday season. When most of us are enjoying time with family, giving and receiving gifts, and relaxing from another year’s worth of work, NFL personnel have other things on their minds. Some are fighting for the playoff lives. Less fortunate ones are fighting for their jobs.

The Colts, however, are enjoying the best ever record heading into the holidays. Being 14-0 is great, of course, but several other things have happened to make you feel like this great start may end differently than the 2005 season—a season where the Colts started 13-0 only to lose their opening playoff game to the Steelers.

Winning Attitude

The first contributing element to the Colts’ ongoing winning streak is their approach to the final games of the season. In 2005, the Colts gave it the “college try” in game 14. They lost to the Chargers and proceeded to treat the last two games like preseason contests. Most starters, including Peyton Manning, got token appearances in the final two games.

This year, the Colts won game 14. Sure, their approach was cautious. They played the healthy starters, and the injured played limited roles. Still, there’s reason to think the Colts will take the same approach against the Jets this Sunday.

Giving the starters solid work in game 15 will mean less off-time going into the playoffs, win or lose. Win, and it’s hard to imagine the Colts not giving their starters significant playing time in the season finale at Buffalo.

Playoff Picture

The AFC playoff picture is a muddled mess. However, the order of the top four teams is beginning to crystallize. This evolution is excellent news for the Colts.

The Patriots and Chargers seem to be the only teams able to disturb Indianapolis.  As it stands now, those two (the Patriots and Chargers) would face each other in the divisional round if the higher seeds win the wild card games.

Now, don’t mistake me here; the Colts don’t necessarily want to avoid those teams.  However, it would be nice to see the Colts’ two main obstacles slug it out before making a trip to Indianapolis.

For a Colts team with a history of slow starts in the playoffs, avoiding San Diego or New England would be a very good thing.

The Colts would match up against the Bengals (assuming again that higher seeds prevail). While the Bengals played an emotional game in a close loss to the Chargers, Cincinnati has had struggles offensively. They wouldn’t be an easy out, but they are the weakest of the divisional leaders.

Cinderella Isn’t At This Ball

In 2005, the Steelers caught fire at the end of the season and rode that momentum to a championship. None of the wild card teams have that potential.

The Titans would be the closest thing to a Cinderella, having won six-of-seven after starting the season 0-6. However, the one loss during that span was to the Colts.

Baltimore is the other possible wild card with the potential to knock off Indianapolis, but the Colts defeated the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this year.

Neither of the aforementioned teams have Steelers’ strength of 2005. It’s hard to imagine any of the 7-7 teams making it past Cincinnati or New England in the first round.

Jets In Disarray

The Jets’ last minute loss to the Falcons last week may have been a win for the Colts. Sure, the Jets are one of many teams still in the playoff picture, but the loss has created some doubt in New York.  Most of that worry relates to the inconsistent play of quarterback Mark Sanchez after his hot start.

The Jets still have one of the league’s top defenses and the league’s best running game. Again, it’s not a cake walk, but it’s definitely a winnable game. The Jets have scored more than 24 points only four times all year. The Colts have done it five-of-the-last-six games. Win, and only lowly Buffalo stands in the way of a 16-0 regular season.

Pressure Point

The main argument against the Colts going 16-0 is the inherited pressure the chase puts on the team. The Saints proved that argument last week; they had struggled for a few games, and Dallas proved good enough to give the Saints their first loss. Maybe the pressure is off, or maybe it’s a sign of weakness in New Orleans. Time will tell.

The Colts, though, have thrived in pressure situations. They answered every challenge a desperate Jaguar team threw at them last week, even while playing most of the game without Robert Mathis or Dwight Freeney.

Maybe the Colts aren’t the perfect team. They struggle running the ball, and they yield large chunks of yardage on defense. But they are the perfect team to withstand the pressure of a 16-0 season. Fourth-quarter-comebacks an NFL record. The Colts will not be crumble under the weight of a perfect season. In fact, they may relish the opportunity.

Things are definitely shaping up nicely for the Colts as the regular season winds down. The challenge now is for the Colts to maintain their high level of play and take advantage of the opportunity for perfection.

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Comparing the 2009 Colts to Peyton Manning’s Best Teams

After the Colts’ roller coaster win over the Denver Broncos Sunday, I was looking forward to coming home and watching what the highlight shows had to say about the Colts’ achievements.

Instead, what I got was sound bites of Brandon Marshall, the Bronco wide receiver that broke the NFL single-game receptions record by hauling in 21 passes.

Such is the life of the Indianapolis Colts.

Throughout Peyton Manning’s career, the Colts have made winning look routine. Perhaps that’s why the highlight shows focused more on the achievements of Marshall and less on the fact that the Colts set numerous records with the 28-16 win over Denver.

The win gave the Colts 114 for the decade, breaking the mark set by the 49ers during the ’90s.

The win was the Colts 22nd consecutive regular season win, breaking the mark set by their nemesis, the New England Patriots, from 2006-2008.

The victory also tied the record for most consecutive wins to start a season, which was originally set by the 2005 team.

That’s a lot to happen to any team on any given Sunday.

When you look at the history of the Colts since moving to Indianapolis, it’s really a matter of B.M. and A.M. Before Manning and After Manning.

In their first 14 seasons in the Circle City, the Colts complied 88-135 record. They had twice as many seasons with 11 or more losses than they had playoff appearances. The non-Manning led Indianapolis Colts never won more than nine games in any single season.

It’s easy to see why Manning changed football in Indianapolis.

Since Manning’s arrival, the Colts are 130-59. They’ve missed the playoffs only twice, and are now on their seventh consecutive year with at least 12 wins.

But how does the latest version of the Colts compare to these other Manning-led clubs?

Despite all the success, there are four teams that stand out. Before ranking them using seven different categories, let’s take a look at a brief history of each.

 

2009 Colts (13-0)

Manning’s 12th year may be his most impressive. He’s playing under a new head coach. He’s got several new receivers learning the offense. Defensively, the Colts have had games with 75 percent of their starting secondary on the sidelines. Yet, they are 13-0, led by the league’s top passing attack.

 

2006 Colts (12-4)

Their record doesn’t stand out, but their result does. The 2006 team limped into the playoffs, only to come together for an amazing four game run that lead to a victory over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI.

 

2005 Colts (14-2)

The 2005 team has the best record of any Manning-led team. Like the 2009 team, they started the season off 13-0. They ended the season losing three of their last four, including a shocking loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round of the playoffs.

 

1999 Colts (13-3)

Manning’s second season was the Colts’ first dominant team. The roster may be unrecognizable to some, but the offense was led by the Colts’ triplets (Manning, Edgerrin James, and Marvin Harrison) in their first full season together. Starting a trend of playoff woes, this team lost its opening playoff game to the Titans, who went on to the Super Bowl.

 

Category One: Offense

The 2005 team steamrolled through their schedule with an impressive display of offensive firepower.

Seven times, the 2005 Colts scored over 30 points a game. Manning had one of his best statistical years, even though he did not win the MVP award. Manning’s stats were lower than his record setting pace of 2004, but he was much more efficient, completing over 67 percent of his passes.

It would the last year the triplets were together, and James finished his Indianapolis career by gaining over 1500 yards. They were third in passing and 16th in rushing, the best balance of any of the four years.

The 2006 and 1999 Colts were very similar in the offensive statistics, finishing second and fourth in passing and 18th and 19th in rushing respectively. The difference between the two was balance. The 2006 team split rushing duties between Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. The passing game had six receivers with 30 or more catches. In 1999, 3200 yards of offense came from just James or Harrison.

The 2009 team just doesn’t stack up as well. Sure, they lead the league in passing yardage, but Manning’s rating pales in comparison to his 2005 and 2006 version and he’s on pace to throw more interceptions than any of the other years mentioned. It doesn’t help that the 2009 team is dead last in the league in rushing.

Ranking: 1. 2005, 2. 1999, 3. 2006, 4. 2009

 

Category Two: Defense

Manning-led Colts teams have never been blessed with Steel Curtain-like defenses, but the 2005 team was close. That team allowed just over 15 points per game, ranking them second in the league.

Bob Sanders stayed healthy and established himself as a defensive force. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney combined for 22.5 sacks. Six times the Colts defense held opponents to under 10 points. They were in the top half in both rushing and passing yardage allowed.

Even in the playoff defeat, the 2005 Colts’ defense played well, holding the Steelers to under 300 yards of total offense.

The current team fares much better in this category than it did offensively. The 2009 Colts are third in points allowed, though they are ranked in the bottom half in passing and rushing yardage.

The 1999 team was a middle of the road defense, and it showed in their statistics. They finished between 17th and 19th in every major statistical category.

The clear loser of this group is the 2006 team. They were 23rd in points allowed. They were second against the pass, but only because no one needed to pass against them. Teams simply ran on this team all day long. They finished last in the league in rushing defense, and the low point came when they gave up 375 yards in a 27 point loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Ranking: 1. 2005, 2. 2009, 3. 1999, 4. 2006.

 

Category Three: Special Teams

There’s not a lot to talk about here. The Colts haven’t had a legitimate return man since Clarence Verdin made the Pro Bowl in 1992. None of these teams stand out for their return ability.

The kicking game has also been very consistent throughout the years. Mike Vanderjagt’s 2005 season was probably the best, when he converted on 23 of his 25 field goal attempts.

Only two things jump out about any of these teams.

Rookie Pat McAfee is having an outstanding year for the 2009 team. He’s averaging over 44 yards a punt and has 17 land inside the 20. The Colts have enjoyed strong punt and kick coverage throughout the year.

On the flip side, the 2006 group couldn’t cover Verdin’s grandmother. The 2006 Colts were 30th in the league in kickoff coverage, and everyone remembers Devin Hester’s opening kickoff return for a touchdown in the Super Bowl.

Ranking: 1. 2009, 2. 2005, 3. 1999, 4. 2006.

 

Category Four: Coaching

Tony Dungy. Jim Caldwell. Jim Mora.

One of these is not like the others.

Mora was a solid coach, but his years with both New Orleans and Indianapolis were inconsistent at best. His job with the 1999 team was his best during his career, but a lot of that had to do with the influx of talent the Colts had from 1998, and not from any outstanding coaching decisions Mora made.

Of the two Dungy years listed, it’s hard to compare the two. Dungy suffered a great personal tragedy toward the end of the 2005 season. It’s hard to say what effect that had on the team going into the playoffs. If anything, the playoff loss did make Dungy and the Colts a little strong in 2006, so that year gets the edge.

But, honestly, I think the most impressive job in a single season has to go Jim Caldwell. Dungy never faced the multitude of changes that Caldwell has. Some of it was initiated by Caldwell, like his desire to change defensive coordinators or the release of Harrison. Still, Caldwell has kept the offense in the top five in the league while also establishing a defense that is unwilling to give up a lot of points.

Caldwell has to also be commended for his ability to make adjustments during games. In the game against New England and the second Houston game, the Colts gave up 44 first half points, but only 17 in the second half. Part of that has to be attributed to Caldwell.

Ranking: 1. 2009, 2. 2006, 3. 2005, 4. 1999.

 

Category Five: Schedule

A favorable schedule can go a long way in making a team better than it may really be. For this category, I’m looking at the teams that succeeded with the toughest schedule possible.

The 2005 team faced the highest number of teams that made the playoffs that year (six), and earned a solid 5-1 against that competition. The only loss was to Seattle, which was after the Colts clinched home field and started resting players.

However, the 2005 team gets knocked for facing nine teams that finished 6-10 or worse. None of the other three teams faced more than four.

None of the other teams played more than five playoff or potential playoff teams either, but the 2009 team has the potential of playing more since Jacksonville and the Jets are still in the hunt of a playoff spot. Also, unlike the 1999 or 2006 team, they haven’t lost to any playoff bound teams.

Ranking: 1. 2009, 2. 1999, 3. 2005, 4. 2006.

 

Category Six: Next Man Up

The Colts mantra has to account for something when you think of the best Manning-led team. The “Next Man Up” means that when a player goes down, the Colts expect his replacement to come in and perform.

Two teams did this. Two did not.

The 2009 Colts are a prime example of the Next Man Up philosophy. The Colts release their all-time leading receiver (Harrison), and replace him with Anthony Gonzalez. Gonzalez gets hurt and is replaced with Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. The result is a combined 95 catches, 10 touchdowns, and nearly 1300 yards receiving.

On defense, the Colts lost Bob Sanders (again), Marlin Jackson, and have been without the services of many other starters are one point or another. Still, the Colts defense remains solid with the likes of rookies Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey. Clint Session has emerged as one of the league’s top tacklers. Gary Brackett is playing the best ball of his career.

In 2006, the Colts had to go get their next man up. With Corey Simon injured, Bill Polian made a deal that brought in Tampa Bay’s Anthony “Bugger” McFarland. Though it took the playoffs to really show the dividends of the trade, it did pay off.

The 2005 group really never faced the adversity that the others had, though that may have hurt them when the playoff game against Pittsburgh got tight. The 1999 team lost defensive leader Cornelius Bennettt before the playoffs. It showed when Eddie George scored the game’s only touchdown off a long run right where Bennettt would have been.

Ranking: 1. 2009, 2. 2006, 3. 2005, 4. 1999

 

Category Seven: Luck

What? Luck isn’t a football statistic? Of course it is. The best team doesn’t always win the championship. Ask the 1998 Vikings or the 2007 Patriots.

Sometimes, you need a little luck to win a football game or two. For the 2009 Colts, it’s helped them win a football game or five.

Yesterday’s win over Denver was a prime example of this happening. The Colts had done nothing for the entire second half. Facing 3rd-and-10 from their own 20 in the fourth quarter, Manning suddenly hit Collie for a big first down. It was the play of the game. The Colts, after looking like the Lions for the last 18 minutes, suddenly put together a drive to seal the game.

It’s happened throughout the year. The Bill Belichick fourth down gamble. The Kris Brown missed field goal in the first Houston game. Somehow, a play always seems to happen to bail this team out. Five straight fourth quarter comebacks is a sign this team just isn’t good, but has a little luck on its side too.

Ranking: 1. 2009, 2. 2006, 3. 1999, 4. 2005.

 

Final Ranking

1. 2009

2. 2005

3. 1999

4. 2006

Okay, so the 2009 team is the best Colts team ever. What exactly does that mean?

Not a lot.

The worst of the four, the 2006 team, is the only one that won the Super Bowl. Even when they were winning, the knock on the 2006 team was that they couldn’t stop the run and that would lead to playoff failure.

Instead, they turned it around and played excellent defense throughout the playoffs.

Hopefully the latest version of the Colts will follow in the flawed footsteps of that team and not the end result of the others.

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Dime Package: Challenges Keep Coming for Comeback Colts

With the sale of heart medication at an all time high in Indiana, it’s time for a weekly look at the Colts last game and the preview of what’s coming up.

10. How long can the Colts keep living on the edge?

Who knows. The Colts won their fifth straight game in which they trailed in the fourth quarter. No team has ever done that in the NFL before.

Most fans would love to see a return of the game scores from the early part of the season, when the Colts were winning games by double digit scores. Wins are wins in this league, so it’s hard to complain with the results.

There’s no denying that the last five games have made many feel that this is a special campaign. Still, you have to wonder just how many lives the Comeback Colts have.

 

9. What problems have been masked by this winning streak?

The half glass full side might point out that the Colts have been battling through their toughest stretch of the year. No one expected that the Ravens and Patriots’ games, sandwiched between a pair of games against Houston, would be easy.

However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Colts have trailed by 17 points twice in the last three weeks. The offense has looked very inconsistent. With so many young components to the offense, it’s easy to understand some growing pains.

If it was a matter of steady growth, that’s one thing. But every game seems to have moments of sheer brilliance and absolute frustration. Peyton Manning has thrown two interceptions in each of the last three contests. He hasn’t done that since 2001, back in the days when a young Manning would force passes in an attempt to make a play.

Is he doing that now? Doubtful. We took for granted the years that Manning and Marvin Harrison could connect at will, even if the old RCA Dome would have a sudden blackout.

Manning doesn’t have that connect with his current crop…yet.

Defensively, it’s a similar story. They’ll give up tons of yardage and, at times, points as they figure out how to adjust to the offensive game plan thrown at them.

 

8. What’s the difference between them being 11-0 and not being more like 7-4?

In a word, it’s got to come down to coaching.

Where this team continues to amaze is in its ability to adjust to any adversity they may face. In the past five games, the Colts have scored 58 fourth quarter points. It’s one more than they’ve scored the entire first half of those same five games.

The defense has also made its fair share of adjustments. Despite giving up 107 points in the five game run, only four touchdowns have been allowed in the second half.

Jim Caldwell’s staff has done a spectacular job of making key adjustments at halftime.

 

7. What players have helped lead the way?

That’s just the thing. It’s impossible to pinpoint the success of this team on one single player.

Of course Manning is the greatest player on this team. Without him, this team would struggle to score points. However, Manning is just one of many heroes on this team.

Last week against Houston, Clint Session, and Robert Mathis made huge defensive plays. Joseph Addai had one of his best games as a pro, not in terms of yardage, but in terms of controlling the running game and making plays when needed.

Every week, it’s easy to point out six to eight guys, at least, that made key plays to spark a comeback win.

Football is the ultimate team game, and the Colts win by playing great team football.

 

6. How do the Colts currently rank against the other teams in the league?

The Colts are clearly the class of the AFC. While the surging Chargers are on their own impressive streak, the Colts are the best team in the AFC.

Only the NFC’s Saints would be ahead of them if I ranked all 32 teams. The Saints’ dismantling of the Patriots was nothing short of impressive.

Oddly enough, the Colts and Saints both sit at 11-0 and have done so with very similar resumes. Both teams are loaded with offensive weapons that are capable of making plays when needed. Both have defenses loaded with unknowns that always seem to make big stops when needed. Every Colt fan had a flashback of Melvin Bullitt’s fourth down stop against the Patriots when the Saints’ Mike McKenzie broke up Tom Brady’s fourth down pass to Randy Moss.

The matchup possibilities between the two are very intriguing, but i’m getting ahead of myself.

 

5. With the division wrapped up already, what’s left for the Colts to play for?

It is essential that this team needs to win home field advantage, not just for the bonus of playing in front of the home crowd, but to use the bye to get healthy for the playoff run.

The quest for 16-0 will start buzzing around the league soon. As long as they keep winning, the Colts should keep striving to win every game they can. However, home field is the next goal for Indianapolis.

As far as resting players, we’ll save that argument for the moment the home field is locked up.

 

4. How important is the next game against Tennessee?

Very. Even with the division wrapped up, the Colts do not go home to lose a divisional game to a red hot Titans team, especially at home.

The Colts currently enjoy a three game lead in the race for home field advantage. A loss would not only close the gap, but also bring to the forefront the problems the Colts have had lately.

Also, the Titans are a team with playoff hopes, despite being 5-6. Several teams are battling for the wild card spots in the AFC. With their remaining schedule, it’s quite possible the Titans, with a win against the Colts, could run the table and slip into the playoffs. A team finding their identity is a dangerous team to play. The Colts would being doing everyone in the AFC a favor by dealing a set back to the Titans this Sunday.

 

3. What are the keys to the game?

The Colts have to focus on containing Vince Young and Chris Johnson. Young’s mobility in the pocket has always been an issue, but Young has become a more mature passer in his second chance in Tennessee. Young is having a career best year in passing percentage and yardage per attempt.

The Titans have been very creative in play calling to maximize the talents of Young and Johnson. Without a reliable passing game in their first meeting, the Colts held Johnson to just 34 yards.

It also helped that the Colts jumped to a big lead in that game, negating the Titans’ running game. The Colts will need to find their offensive spark earlier than usual in this game. The Titans can’t win a shootout, and the Colts should do all they can to get the Titans on their heels early.

 

2. How can the Colts get the offense on track early?

The best game plan against Tennessee is the one they had in the first game against Houston. The Colts came out playing a fast-paced no huddle offense. They ground up impressive yardage levels, but didn’t finish drives like they should have.

Last night, the Saints didn’t worry about grounding out long drives against New England. They scored and often it was quick. The Colts should do the same to make the Titans a one dimensional offense.

 

1. Prediction?

Colts 27, Titans 17. The Titans are a great feel good story, but the Cardinals should have ended the Cinderella run last week. The Colts, however, know how to finish. They should do that against Tennessee this week.

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The Dime Package: Colts Keep Things Interesting During Winning Streak

The Colts reached their 10th win in 10 tries this year with a tough 17-15 win over the Ravens. I’ve never known a 10-win team to be labeled with so many questions, which kind of helps this week’s column write itself.

 

10. Simply put, what is up with the offense?

For the fourth straight game, the Colts had a mediocre offensive performance. Peyton Manning threw two picks that, unlike the ones in the Patriots’ game, were forced throws into coverage. The running game, save for one 21-yard Joseph Addai run, was lackluster at best.

It’s hard to say the league’s best passing attack is struggling, but they haven’t looked great since their blow out win at St. Louis. Still, it’s hard to complain about a team that’s averaging more than 300 yards passing a game. Such are the dilemmas of a 10-0 team.

 

9. So how did they win?

This team is like no other Colts team that I can remember. It’s almost as if they have a sixth sense about making plays in pressure situations.

The offense comes alive when it knows it needs a score. Sure, a lone field goal in the fourth quarter doesn’t sound like an epic comeback, but it was enough for the win. This was the Colts’ fourth straight fourth quarter comeback.

Four straight! What team does that?

Of all the incredible starts the Colts have had with Manning at the helm, this may be the most memorable. Several times I’ve seen this team get to the breaking point in a game. A loss seemed inevitable. Instead, they find that little bit extra and get the job done.

Both the offense and defense found a little extra yesterday. The fourth-quarter offense looked little like the one we had seen against New England. The first two possessions of the final 15 minutes resulted in an interception and a punt. Still, the offense, led entirely by Manning passes, put together a drive that led to Matt Stover’s game-winning field goal.

Prior to that, the defense that looked as if it would finally give up a Raven touchdown held firm after the Ravens reached a first down on the one-yard line. It was an impressive stand for a defense late in a game that had been so physical.

 

8. Play of the game?

Gary Brackett’s interception was a magnificent play. After the Colts took a 17-15 lead, it looked as if the Ravens would respond with at least a field goal of their own. The Ravens had already converted one 3rd-and-long when they faced another at the Colts’ 14-yard line.

Brackett played a short zone, watching Joe Flacco’s eyes and waiting for the dump off pass to Ray Rice. Brackett made the break and came up with the game-deciding interception.

Brackett has been a very under appreciated member of the defense. It’s hard to forget about him since the Colts’ linebacking corps goes mostly unnoticed, but Brackett has been a consistent playmaker this year.

A lack of name recognition will likely keep him forever out of the Pro Bowl, but Brackett is one of the Colts’ best defenders.

 

7. Is there something special about this streak?

Yes, it’s called karma. I’ve wondered if it exists, but think about the past three wins.

First, there’s the Texans driving down to tie the game. Their kicker, Kris Brown had already nailed a 56-yarder earlier. He misses a 42-yard field goal at the end that would have tied the game.

Next, there’s the infamous Bill Belichick gamble at the end of the game. The Colts had no business winning that game, but they did.

And then there’s yesterday’s game. The intimidating Ray Lewis gets faked out of his shoes by Addai on the touchdown run. Does that happen to Lewis? Ever?

Then there’s the personal foul on Haloti Ngata on the drive that produced the game’s final points.

Some might call it luck, but there’s no denying the Colts have this tendency to hang around until someone else makes a mistake. Once is luck. Three straight weeks is something more.

 

6. Dare I ask, would a loss be a good thing for the Colts?

I’ve been debating this all day.

On one hand, a loss would force this team to really look at why the offense has been inconsistent at times and why the defense occasionally lets the big play happen (like it did yesterday on Flacco’s bomb to Derrick Mason).

It’s one thing to talk about the areas you need to improve on after a win. It’s just not the same mentally as reviewing your mistakes after a loss. I can see, in some sense, how a loss would be very beneficial.

But then why mess with a streak while it’s happening? The team is winning, so there must be a lot of good things happening.

This team does have a lot to work on, but I’m confident the coaching staff knows what to do whether they win or lose. Let the streak continue.

 

5. Is it time to ask, about 16-0?

Not yet. There’s still one more massive test coming up next week at Houston. I thought the Colts had a legitimate chance of hitting 16-0 if they could make it out of the stretch of games bookmarked by the Texans undefeated. Three down and one to go.

The Houston game will be a tough one. The last game is still fresh in the Texans’ minds. They know they could have won that game and will be fired up. If the Texans want to make the playoffs, they really need a win. There will be a lot on the line for them, and it could make for a dangerous game.

If they win next week, then I think you’ll start to hear some serious talk about it. The rest of the schedule suddenly looks very good.

The Jags are a one trick pony team. The Titans are coming along, but the Colts play well against mobile quarterbacks like Vince Young. The Jets and Broncos are falling apart, and the Bills are just awful.

Those are five winnable games.

Of course, with the Bengals’ loss, the Colts now have a three-game lead in the race for home field in the AFC. If they clinch home field by Week 15 or 16, that will lead to the obvious question…

 

4. Do the Colts rest their starters if everything is locked up?

No. It would be a bad move for the Colts to rest their starters.

The 2007 Patriots played their starters till the end, and you could argue that gave the Giants the confidence that they could beat the Patriots. Then again, there’s the 2005 Colts that clinched early, rested everybody, and came out flat in the opening playoff loss to the Steelers.

There’s question marks both ways, but I think it’s clear that the Colts need to play every game with the starters for one reason.

Experience.

The Colts aren’t a veteran team. Their offense isn’t a fine-tuned engine of Manning to Marvin Harrison. Their defense isn’t led by lots of eight- and nine-year vets.

Most of Manning’s offensive playmakers are young. The more reps guys like Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon get with Manning, the better they’ll be.

The same is true for the defense. The young secondary could use the practice they’ll get from finishing out the season. The teams they play will still be playing to win games, so the Colts should too.

Maybe you rest guys more, you rotate guys in and out, but you have to keep playing. This team relies a lot on getting in a rhythm to win. You can’t do that if they end up taking three weeks off.

 

3. Back to the Texans’ game, what will be the key to the game for Houston?

Again, I think it comes down what Texans’ coach Gary Kubiak decides to do with Steve Slaton.

In the first matchup, I thought Slaton would play a big role in the passing game considering they had just lost pass-catching tight end Owen Daniels for the year.

Instead, Kubiak benched Slaton to make a point about Slaton’s fumbling problems. He replaced him with Ryan Moats, a career backup who happened to have more than 130 yards against lowly Buffalo.

Against the Colts, he had 38.

Moats is not the answer. If you are talking consistent running, Slaton probably isn’t either. The Texans are like the Colts in the sense they need the pass to be their short running game, and they only run to keep the defenses honest.

If Slaton is used in the passing game, it’ll give the Colts a lot to think about with stud receiver Andre Johnson lurking about.

The defense will have to contain Johnson much like they did in game one. He did have 10 catches in the first game, but barely averaged 10 yards a catch which is commendable considering his talent level.

If the Colts can keep the Texans’ passing game contained, then they have an excellent shot at a victory.

 

2. What can the Colts do to win?

They need to do exactly what they did in game one. The Colts came out firing in game one. The trouble was they didn’t finish a lot of drives. That let Houston hang around to get back in the game.

The Colts need to score early and often. Houston is pretty one-dimensional anyway, but forcing Schaub to go all out will put a lot of pressure on their offense to get back in the game.

Indianapolis should come out guns blazing and finish drives in the end zone. Sounds simple, but it won’t be for an offense that’s been anything but consistent.

 

1. Prediction?

I’ve rewritten this section twice.

I first said Texans 27, Colts 20. I had my reasons.

The lack of consistency from the Colts’ offense.

The fact that this may be a needed win for Houston to make the playoffs, so Houston will have added motivation.

The confidence that just a few short weeks ago, they had the Colts on the ropes and let them go.

Great reasons. Then I remembered one thing. The Colts have only lost to Houston once since the Texans. Ever. In a late game-winning drive, do I want Manning or Schaub? Do I want the pass rushing over Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis or Mario Williams and somebody else?

I may not like how things are going, but hey, the Colts are 10-0 for a reason. They find ways to win.

They’ll find a way again next Sunday too.

Colts 27, Texans 24.

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Dime Package: Pats Bobble Game, Colts Steal Victory

Forgive me if I ramble at times. I’m working on four hours of sleep. I got back home about 12 hours ago and simply couldn’t sleep. Normally, I have the basis of a column worked out toward the end of the game. With the Colts trailing 31-14 after Randy Moss caught his second touchdown from Tom Brady, I had a pretty good idea of what a majority of my questions would be about. By the time the frantic fourth quarter ended, I was left with on one question.

 

10. What the heck was Bill Belichick thinking by going for it on fourth down from his own 28?

I have a friend that does this type of silly stuff playing the video game Madden. Once he’s down, he’ll go for it no matter where he is on the field. Might explain why he has a lifetime record of something like 6-389.

As for Belichick? It’s inexcusable. I’m trying to think of any scenario where it would be acceptable to go for it when your team has the lead. I can’t think of one.

Think about all the reasons they should have kicked.

Yes, Peyton Manning had lead the Colts on two touchdown drives in the quarter, but Manning had hardly looked Manning-esque for most of the game.

The Patriots defense had played decently well the whole game. Manning had found holes at times, but also was forced into horribly bad decisions at other times.

In his post game press conference, Belichick talked about how he thought they could get the yard. Maybe that was his problem. The Patriots needed two yards, not one. The play he called did get one yard. So, theoretically, he succeeded.

Seriously, though, Belichick should know that converting the two yards was not a certainty. In fact, the Patriots had just dodged a bullet on the previous play. Brady was nearly picked off trying to hit Wes Welker on a quick out. Belichick should have seen it as a sign to play it safe, and not try for the conversion against a defense that was playing with emotion and emergency.

Instead, Belichick gambled and lost.

 

9. Can just one play have a lasting impact?

It sure can.

What bothers me the most about the decision is the message it sends to the Pats’ defense.

Sure, Brady defended Belichick. He commented on how much he likes his coach being aggressive. There are some that have defended Belichick for challenging his offense to win the game.

But what did the defense take away from this? Belichick essentially told them “you can’t win this.” I’m sure they’ll be a lot of team speak in the wake of the loss, but don’t forget that this is a young Patriot defense. There’s bound to be some mental baggage.

There was also a huge impact on the Colts defense. The defense was abused in the first half, but played significantly better in the second.

Still, the Patriots’ fourth down attempt was seen as a sign of disrespect to the Colts’ defenders. A lot of credit for the win has to go to safety Melvin Bullitt, whose hit on Kevin Faulk gave Manning and the offense a chance to win.

The standings may be where the call ends up hurting the most. Home field advantage in the playoffs is probably a pipe dream now. The Patriots will need a strong finish to try to earn the second seed. If the teams meet again, it’ll definitely help the Colts if the game is in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Finally, the one person that may feel the least long term affect is the guy who made the guy. If Lovie Smith or Rex Ryan had made this call, there’s a good chance they’d be unemployed in the near future, but Belichick has such an impressive resume as a coach it’s likely this play will be nothing more than a footnote on his career. Albeit a very bad one.

 

8. Let’s look at the first half. New England, at one time, held a 24-7 lead. What was the Patriots’ offense doing to expose the Colts’ passing defense?

The game plan for the Patriots was to obviously spread the Colts out and try to expose gaps in the cover two system. It worked, primarily, because the Colts defensive backs failed to make adjustments.

On Moss’ first big catch, Moss had lined up in the slot. He had a free release because there wasn’t a defensive back lined up opposite him.

Several times throughout the game, a Patriot receiver went in motion. Often, the Colts’ nickel defender would be set for a blitz and that would leave the motioned receiver on a linebacker. The Patriots exploited this, and Brady carved up the secondary. It helped that the combo of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis was held in check during much of the game’s first 30 minutes.

 

7. Why were the Colts unable to keep pace offensively?

The Colts looked sharp on an early drive that resulted in the game’s opening touchdown. After that, the offense got completely out of sync.

At first, it was the Colts’ young receivers that struggled. Pierre Garcon caught just one of the five passes targeted to him during the first half. Austin Collie dropped what was sure to be a decent gain.

It didn’t take long for the erratic play to spread around the offense. Manning would look good on one pass, then one hop the next. Dallas Clark’s production evaporated for half the game. He had only one pass thrown his way the entire second quarter even though the Patriots weren’t doing anything special to take him out of the game.

When the Colts did show signs of life, it was because Manning would hook up with Reggie Wayne. The 20 yard strike to Wayne late in the second quarter kept the Colts alive. 

 

6. What about adjustments going into the second half? What happened to the Patriots offensively in the third quarter?

If the Patriots made a mistake in their game plan, it was letting their foot off the gas in the second half. The Patriots seemed content to go back to the draw play and short passes in an attempt to control the clock. They still spread the field, but not nearly as much as they did in the first half.

The Colts’ defense also stiffened quite a bit in the second half to prevent the Patriots from scoring a decisive blow.

First, Antoine Bethea picked off Brady in the end zone. Uncharacteristically, Brady stared down Moss on a post route. In the replay, Bethea can be seen breaking on the ball before Brady releases it.

Next, impressive young linebacker Philip Wheeler striped Laurence Maroney a yard out from the end zone. The ball bounced into the end zone and was recovered by Gary Brackett.

The third quarter was a series of missed chances for the Patriots. They didn’t look as sharp as they did in the first place, but more importantly, they weren’t nearly as fluid as they were earlier in the game. Had the Patriots scored just once in the third quarter, then the miracle ending may never have happened.

Even though they failed to score, the Patriots did dominate time of possession in the third, which limited the Colts’ opportunities.

 

5. Why couldn’t the Colts capitalize on the Patriots’ third quarter mistakes?

The third quarter was the low point for the Colts offense. Only twice did they get the ball. Their first possession was killed when the ball seemed to slip out of Manning’s hand. It floated and was easily picked off by Leigh Bodden.

The second drive never got into a rhythm. The Colts were forced to punt and that set up what looked to be the final nail in the coffin.

4. Welker’s return set up New England’s last touchdown. At this point, who was the main Colts killer?

When most people think of the Patriots, they think of Brady, Moss, and Welker.

Brady is Brady. He seems cool under fire. I thought he played a very good game, but I also thought he missed some opportunities when the Colts seemed out of position. Any quarterback can put up decent numbers if given the time. A player of Brady’s quality can kill you, which is what he did for most of the game. He wasn’t the difference though.

Welker, in my opinion, may be one of the league’s most overrated wide receivers. Only once did Welker make a quality play, which was the punt return setting up the last of the Patriots’ touchdowns.  But even that play was helped by a missed holding call (which was probably the only bad call on what was a really well officiated game otherwise).

Welker’s game plan is simply find a spot in the zone and get open. Welker is a quality, consistent receiver, but he’s not the superstar he’s hyped to be.

That’s because the real superstar on this team is Randy Moss.

As good as Brady was, it was Moss that made the Patriots go. Often it was Moss, not Welker, that Brady would go to on a key play. Moss did it all. He went deep. He went over the middle. He caught key third down plays. Both of his touchdowns were classic Moss. The first was simply out muscling Bethea for the ball before going into the end zone.

The second was a jump ball that only Moss could catch. That play gave the Patriots what seemed to be an insurmountable 31-14 lead.

 

3. What prompted the comeback?

At first, I thought the Patriots had simply decided to play vanilla defense, but after seeing several replays I don’t think the Patriots changed what they did much, though they did drop their safeties a little deeper than usual.

That helped the Colts finally establish enough of a running game to keep New England guessing. From there, Manning entered his fourth quarter mode we’ve seen out of him in recent weeks. His lone mistake, an interception trying to hit Wayne deep, was caused by miscommunication more than a mere pass by Manning.

Seemingly feeding off Manning’s energy, the offense came alive. Garcon and Collie, who looked frighteningly inexperienced early on, each came up with big plays. Clark finally ended his catching drought, and Wayne continued coming up big when needed.

The Patriots managed a lone field goal after the Manning interception, but it was mostly the Colts that dominated the fourth quarter.

 

2. After the failed fourth down conversion, what was the key to snatching the win from the Patriots?

Once the Patriots failed to secure the first down, I don’t think anyone in the building doubted that the Colts would score a touchdown. The big question is how much time would be left for Brady to create some heroics of his own.

The impressive part of the drive was the clock management. The Colts didn’t score too soon. They ran the ball. They were patient. By the time Wayne made a fabulous finger tip catch to tie the game, the Patriots had only 13 seconds to respond. Matt Stover’s extra point would seal the win.

 

1. Both teams seem like the class of the AFC. Would a rematch be any different?

A lot was said about how the Patriots could have easy had a 48-14 lead had the ball bounced a little differently. While that is true, I am certain that a rematch of these teams would produce the same result, another close game. Both teams will undoubtedly adjust some things from this game. The Colts’ youngsters wouldn’t play nearly as hesitantly next time around. Belichick may even play it more conservatively.

In the end, I’m sure a lot of people are hoping for a rematch. It’ll be hard to top this game though, which will surely be remembered as the game of the year.

 

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Dime Package: Pats Bobble Game, Colts Steal Victory

Forgive me if I ramble at times. I’m working on four hours of sleep. I got back home about 12 hours ago and simply couldn’t sleep. Normally, I have the basis of a column worked out toward the end of the game. With the Colts trailing 31-14 after Randy Moss caught his second touchdown from Tom Brady, I had a pretty good idea of what a majority of my questions would be about. By the time the frantic fourth quarter ended, I was left with on one question.

 

10. What the heck was Bill Belichick thinking by going for it on fourth down from his own 28?

I have a friend that does this type of silly stuff playing the video game Madden. Once he’s down, he’ll go for it no matter where he is on the field. Might explain why he has a lifetime record of something like 6-389.

As for Belichick? It’s inexcusable. I’m trying to think of any scenario where it would be acceptable to go for it when your team has the lead. I can’t think of one.

Think about all the reasons they should have kicked.

Yes, Peyton Manning had lead the Colts on two touchdown drives in the quarter, but Manning had hardly looked Manning-esque for most of the game.

The Patriots defense had played decently well the whole game. Manning had found holes at times, but also was forced into horribly bad decisions at other times.

In his post game press conference, Belichick talked about how he thought they could get the yard. Maybe that was his problem. The Patriots needed two yards, not one. The play he called did get one yard. So, theoretically, he succeeded.

Seriously, though, Belichick should know that converting the two yards was not a certainty. In fact, the Patriots had just dodged a bullet on the previous play. Brady was nearly picked off trying to hit Wes Welker on a quick out. Belichick should have seen it as a sign to play it safe, and not try for the conversion against a defense that was playing with emotion and emergency.

Instead, Belichick gambled and lost.

 

9. Can just one play have a lasting impact?

It sure can.

What bothers me the most about the decision is the message it sends to the Pats’ defense.

Sure, Brady defended Belichick. He commented on how much he likes his coach being aggressive. There are some that have defended Belichick for challenging his offense to win the game.

But what did the defense take away from this? Belichick essentially told them “you can’t win this.” I’m sure they’ll be a lot of team speak in the wake of the loss, but don’t forget that this is a young Patriot defense. There’s bound to be some mental baggage.

There was also a huge impact on the Colts defense. The defense was abused in the first half, but played significantly better in the second.

Still, the Patriots’ fourth down attempt was seen as a sign of disrespect to the Colts’ defenders. A lot of credit for the win has to go to safety Melvin Bullitt, whose hit on Kevin Faulk gave Manning and the offense a chance to win.

The standings may be where the call ends up hurting the most. Home field advantage in the playoffs is probably a pipe dream now. The Patriots will need a strong finish to try to earn the second seed. If the teams meet again, it’ll definitely help the Colts if the game is in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Finally, the one person that may feel the least long term affect is the guy who made the guy. If Lovie Smith or Rex Ryan had made this call, there’s a good chance they’d be unemployed in the near future, but Belichick has such an impressive resume as a coach it’s likely this play will be nothing more than a footnote on his career. Albeit a very bad one.

 

8. Let’s look at the first half. New England, at one time, held a 24-7 lead. What was the Patriots’ offense doing to expose the Colts’ passing defense?

The game plan for the Patriots was to obviously spread the Colts out and try to expose gaps in the cover two system. It worked, primarily, because the Colts defensive backs failed to make adjustments.

On Moss’ first big catch, Moss had lined up in the slot. He had a free release because there wasn’t a defensive back lined up opposite him.

Several times throughout the game, a Patriot receiver went in motion. Often, the Colts’ nickel defender would be set for a blitz and that would leave the motioned receiver on a linebacker. The Patriots exploited this, and Brady carved up the secondary. It helped that the combo of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis was held in check during much of the game’s first 30 minutes.

 

7. Why were the Colts unable to keep pace offensively?

The Colts looked sharp on an early drive that resulted in the game’s opening touchdown. After that, the offense got completely out of sync.

At first, it was the Colts’ young receivers that struggled. Pierre Garcon caught just one of the five passes targeted to him during the first half. Austin Collie dropped what was sure to be a decent gain.

It didn’t take long for the erratic play to spread around the offense. Manning would look good on one pass, then one hop the next. Dallas Clark’s production evaporated for half the game. He had only one pass thrown his way the entire second quarter even though the Patriots weren’t doing anything special to take him out of the game.

When the Colts did show signs of life, it was because Manning would hook up with Reggie Wayne. The 20 yard strike to Wayne late in the second quarter kept the Colts alive. 

 

6. What about adjustments going into the second half? What happened to the Patriots offensively in the third quarter?

If the Patriots made a mistake in their game plan, it was letting their foot off the gas in the second half. The Patriots seemed content to go back to the draw play and short passes in an attempt to control the clock. They still spread the field, but not nearly as much as they did in the first half.

The Colts’ defense also stiffened quite a bit in the second half to prevent the Patriots from scoring a decisive blow.

First, Antoine Bethea picked off Brady in the end zone. Uncharacteristically, Brady stared down Moss on a post route. In the replay, Bethea can be seen breaking on the ball before Brady releases it.

Next, impressive young linebacker Philip Wheeler striped Laurence Maroney a yard out from the end zone. The ball bounced into the end zone and was recovered by Gary Brackett.

The third quarter was a series of missed chances for the Patriots. They didn’t look as sharp as they did in the first place, but more importantly, they weren’t nearly as fluid as they were earlier in the game. Had the Patriots scored just once in the third quarter, then the miracle ending may never have happened.

Even though they failed to score, the Patriots did dominate time of possession in the third, which limited the Colts’ opportunities.

 

5. Why couldn’t the Colts capitalize on the Patriots’ third quarter mistakes?

The third quarter was the low point for the Colts offense. Only twice did they get the ball. Their first possession was killed when the ball seemed to slip out of Manning’s hand. It floated and was easily picked off by Leigh Bodden.

The second drive never got into a rhythm. The Colts were forced to punt and that set up what looked to be the final nail in the coffin.

4. Welker’s return set up New England’s last touchdown. At this point, who was the main Colts killer?

When most people think of the Patriots, they think of Brady, Moss, and Welker.

Brady is Brady. He seems cool under fire. I thought he played a very good game, but I also thought he missed some opportunities when the Colts seemed out of position. Any quarterback can put up decent numbers if given the time. A player of Brady’s quality can kill you, which is what he did for most of the game. He wasn’t the difference though.

Welker, in my opinion, may be one of the league’s most overrated wide receivers. Only once did Welker make a quality play, which was the punt return setting up the last of the Patriots’ touchdowns.  But even that play was helped by a missed holding call (which was probably the only bad call on what was a really well officiated game otherwise).

Welker’s game plan is simply find a spot in the zone and get open. Welker is a quality, consistent receiver, but he’s not the superstar he’s hyped to be.

That’s because the real superstar on this team is Randy Moss.

As good as Brady was, it was Moss that made the Patriots go. Often it was Moss, not Welker, that Brady would go to on a key play. Moss did it all. He went deep. He went over the middle. He caught key third down plays. Both of his touchdowns were classic Moss. The first was simply out muscling Bethea for the ball before going into the end zone.

The second was a jump ball that only Moss could catch. That play gave the Patriots what seemed to be an insurmountable 31-14 lead.

 

3. What prompted the comeback?

At first, I thought the Patriots had simply decided to play vanilla defense, but after seeing several replays I don’t think the Patriots changed what they did much, though they did drop their safeties a little deeper than usual.

That helped the Colts finally establish enough of a running game to keep New England guessing. From there, Manning entered his fourth quarter mode we’ve seen out of him in recent weeks. His lone mistake, an interception trying to hit Wayne deep, was caused by miscommunication more than a mere pass by Manning.

Seemingly feeding off Manning’s energy, the offense came alive. Garcon and Collie, who looked frighteningly inexperienced early on, each came up with big plays. Clark finally ended his catching drought, and Wayne continued coming up big when needed.

The Patriots managed a lone field goal after the Manning interception, but it was mostly the Colts that dominated the fourth quarter.

 

2. After the failed fourth down conversion, what was the key to snatching the win from the Patriots?

Once the Patriots failed to secure the first down, I don’t think anyone in the building doubted that the Colts would score a touchdown. The big question is how much time would be left for Brady to create some heroics of his own.

The impressive part of the drive was the clock management. The Colts didn’t score too soon. They ran the ball. They were patient. By the time Wayne made a fabulous finger tip catch to tie the game, the Patriots had only 13 seconds to respond. Matt Stover’s extra point would seal the win.

 

1. Both teams seem like the class of the AFC. Would a rematch be any different?

A lot was said about how the Patriots could have easy had a 48-14 lead had the ball bounced a little differently. While that is true, I am certain that a rematch of these teams would produce the same result, another close game. Both teams will undoubtedly adjust some things from this game. The Colts’ youngsters wouldn’t play nearly as hesitantly next time around. Belichick may even play it more conservatively.

In the end, I’m sure a lot of people are hoping for a rematch. It’ll be hard to top this game though, which will surely be remembered as the game of the year.

 

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