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NFL Football Players Draft Injuries Rookies Season SuperbowlPublished: June 30, 2009
Death, taxes, and Kevin Houser snapping the ball on special teams for the Saints.
Now, you can forget about that last one.
Yesterday, the New Orleans Saints announced that they parted ways with long snapper Kevin Houser.
Houser was a seventh round pick by the Saints in 2000 out of Ohio State.
Normally, this wouldn’t make much in the way of headlines but considering that Houser was the longest tenured Saint and seemed to have done everything to keep his job, this move comes as a surprise.
Houser’s 144 NFL games rank him fourth on the Saints all-time list. More impressively, those 144 games are all consecutive.
He was scheduled to break Jim Dombrowski’s team record of 148 in week six at home against the New York Giants.
Houser was one of four Saints who were a member of at least two division-winning teams (Fred McAfee, Joe Horn, and Steve Gleason are the others).
When I learned yesterday that Houser had been cut, I figured the Saints had signed someone younger to take his place.
Enter Jason Kyle—a 14-year veteran.
Huh?
This is just the latest in a number of head-scratching moves made by management that has directly affected the special teams.
In 2007, the Saints said goodbye to kicker John Carney after six seasons with the Saints. The Saints wanted a younger kicker with a stronger leg.
Except for one of the more infamous missed extra points in league history, Carney was a very dependable kicker for the Saints.
The Saints then proceeded to trade for Olindo Mare.
Sure you remember him. He was the guy the Saints traded for because of his strong leg. The guy who made just one out of six field goals beyond 50 yards the previous season in Miami.
The guy who the Saints cut after 13 games.
Then came Martin Gramatica and Taylor Mehlhaff.
The Saints signed Gramatica near the end of the 2007 season to replace Mare. Gramatica was efficient in the final three games making all five field goals and all eight extra points.
The Saints then drafted Mehlhaff in the sixth round of the 2008 draft to compete with Gramatica for the starting job.
In a mild surprise, the Saints kept Gramatica, the guy who hadn’t completed a full NFL season since 2003, over the fresher, younger Mehlhaff.
The Saints cut Gramitca after five games. Twice Gramatica missed field goals that would have tied the game or put the Saints ahead late in games.
They re-signed Mehlhaff but cut him after three games due to the fact that he wasn’t getting enough depth or height on his kickoffs.
The Saints then turned to Garrett Hartley. He looks to be a keeper—that is until the first preseason game.
By they way, that old kicker they cut, Carney, made the Pro Bowl last year with the Giants.
The Saints have had a similar turnover with punters.
They went through Steve Weatherford and Ben Graham before settling on Glenn Pakulak.
In eight games, Pakulak averaged 47.7 yards per punt and had a long of 70 yards.
Then, right on cue, the Saints traded up in this year’s draft to pick punter Thomas Morstead out of Southern Methodist University in the fifth round.
So far, most of the club’s special team’s moves have not worked out.
General manager Mickey Loomis gave no explanation for Houser’s release except that he wishes him well.
If there are any major blunders on special teams this season—a blocked punt or kick or a bad snap—and the blame will fall squarely on management’s shoulders.
Published: June 18, 2009
Six teams from each conference make the playoffs each year, and about half of them miss out the following year.
Last season, only five playoff participants, and only one from the NFC, were also in the playoffs in 2007.
I’m taking a look around the NFL and gauging each team’s playoff hopes.
Today, I’m judging the AFC.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
2008 result: 11-5, lost AFC championship game
Offensive ranks: 11th in points, 18th in yards
Defensive ranks: Third in points, second in yards
Biggest offseason gain:Offensive line help. The Ravens lost C Jason Brown to free agency, but replaced him with Matt Birk. The Ravens also selected LT Michael Oher in the draft.
Biggest offseason loss: Defensive coordinator Rex Ryan never had a defense ranked lower than sixth in his ten years at Baltimore.
Buyer beware:More will be expected of Joe Flacco in year two, and Baltimore virtually added no help at wide receiver for Flacco.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Cincinnati Bengals
2008 result: 4-11-1, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: Last in points, last in yards
Defensive ranks: 19th in points, 12th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: The health of QB Carson Palmer. When healthy, Palmer is a top five NFL quarterback.
Biggest offseason loss: Wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Buyer beware: Even with the return of Carson Palmer, the Bengals still need a running game. Right now, they don’t have one.
Buy or Sell: SELL
Cleveland Browns
2008 result: 4-12, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 30th in points, 31st in yards
Defensive ranks: 17th in points, 26th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Rookie center Alex Mack helps to give the Browns an above average offensive line.
Biggest offseason loss: Safety Sean Jones was second on the team with four interceptions.
Buyer beware: Coach Eric Mangini is likely going to play a quarterback with three career starts (Brady Quinn), along with a receiver that had a case of the stone hands last year (Braylon Edwards), and two rookie receivers. Yikes.
Buy or Sell: SELL
Pittsburgh Steelers
2008 result:12-4, won division, won Super Bowl XLIII
Offensive ranks: 20th in points, 22nd in yards
Defensive ranks: First in points, first in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Rookie defensive tackle Evander Hood
Biggest offseason loss: Quarterback Byron Leftwich gave the Steelers a solid No. 2 quarterback.
Buyer beware: This was a very average offensive team in the regular season.
Buy or Sell: BUY
AFC South
Houston Texans
2008 result: 8-8, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 17th in points, third in yards
Defensive ranks: 27th in points, 22nd in yards
Biggest offseason gain:Defensive end Antonio Smith
Biggest offseason loss:With the departure of Ahman Green, the Texans do not have a solid backup option behind Steve Slaton.
Buyer beware: The Texans still have not made the playoffs, and are regarded by many to be no better than the third-best team in the division.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Indianapolis Colts
2008 result:12-4, lost in Wild Card Round
Offensive ranks: 13th in points, 15th in yards
Defensive ranks: Seventh in points, 11th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Rookie running back Donald Brown gives the Colts a solid option behind Joseph Addai.
Biggest offseason loss:Head coach Tony Dungy
Buyer beware: The first half of last season reminded us that the Colts are not a playoff team if Peyton Manning is not close to 100 percent.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Jacksonville Jaguars
2008 result: 5-11, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 24th in points, 20th in yards
Defensive ranks: 21st in points, 17th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: No team addressed their needs at offensive line more than the Jaguars. They signed Tra Thomas, and then used their first two draft picks on offensive tackles.
Biggest offseason loss: Wide receiver Matt Jones. The former first-round pick was the Jaguars top receiver, but his off-field problems were too much.
Buyer beware: Last season, Fred Taylor alluded to locker room and chemistry issues when he said that the 2008 Jaguars were the worst team he had ever been on.
Buy or Sell: SELL
Tennessee Titans
2008 result:13-3, lost in Divisional Round.
Offensive ranks: 15th in points, 21st in yards
Defensive ranks: Second in points, seventh in yards
Biggest offseason gain: The amount of young players they added to the depth chart. The Titans drafted six players in the first four rounds and 11 overall.
Biggest offseason loss:Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth
Buyer beware: Tennessee’s inconsistent offense cost them in the playoffs.
Buy or Sell: BUY
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
2008 result: 7-9, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 23rd in points, 25th in yards
Defensive ranks: 14th in points, 14th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Wide receiver Terrell Owens
Biggest offseason loss:Guard Derrick Dockery
Buyer beware: The Bills were the hottest team in the league when they started 4-0. However, they only won three more games the rest of the season. They need to learn to sustain success.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Miami Dolphins
2008 result:11-5, division champs, lost in Wild Card Round.
Offensive ranks: 21st in points, 12th in yards
Defensive ranks: Ninth in points, 15th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Rookie Quarterback Pat Williams improves the Wildcat Offense with his passing ability.
Biggest offseason loss: The Dolphins lost eight of their 18 interceptions from last season with the departures of Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill.
Buyer beware: While the Wildcat proved difficult to prepare for last year, it won’t sneak up on anyone this year.
Buy or Sell: BUY
New England Patriots
2008 result: 11-5, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: Eighth in points, fifth in yards
Defensive ranks: Eighth in points, 10th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: The return of Tom Brady.
Biggest offseason loss: Safety Rodney Harrison
Buyer beware: All reports out of New England is that Brady’s rehab is going well, but one has to wonder how long it will take for him to be fully confident in the knee in live action.
Buy or Sell: BUY
New York Jets
2008 result: 9-7, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: Ninth in points, 16th in yards
Defensive ranks: 18th in points, 16th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Quarterback Mark Sanchez
Biggest offseason loss: Though he didn’t have his best season, it would have been nice if Sanchez could throw to a veteran like Laveranues Coles.
Buyer beware:If you expect that Mark Sanchez is going to have a season like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco had as rookies, you are kidding yourself. Those rookie seasons were exceptions, not the norm.
Buy or Sell: SELL
AFC West
Denver Broncos
2008 result: 8-8, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 16th in points, second in yards
Defensive ranks: 30th in points, 29th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Head coach Josh McDaniels is the unquestioned head man in Denver, whether you like it or not.
Biggest offseason loss: Quarterback Jay Cutler
Buyer beware: The AFC West was the worst division in the AFC, and the Broncos couldn’t make the playoffs. Maybe the Jay Cutler trade makes them better for the long haul, but they got worse in the short term.
Buy or Sell: SELL
Kansas City Chiefs
2008 result: 2-14, picked in the top five of the draft for the second straight year.
Offensive ranks: 26th in points, 24th in yards
Defensive ranks: 29th in points, 31st in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Quarterback Matt Cassel
Biggest offseason loss: The Chiefs didn’t lose anyone of significance.
Buyer beware: Now that he’s out of the Belichick cocoon, we’ll see how good Cassel really is.
Buy or Sell: SELL
Oakland Raiders
2008 result: 5-11, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 29th in points, 29th in yards
Defensive ranks: 24th in points, 27th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Quarterback Jeff Garcia’s presence should tell JaMarcus Russell that if he doesn’t get the job done, the Raiders have someone else who will. Garcia won with less talent in Tampa Bay.
Biggest offseason loss: Center Jake Grove
Buyer beware: The Raiders were second-worst in the league in stopping the run last year.
Buy or Sell: BUY
San Diego Chargers
2008 result:8-8, division champs, lost in Divisional Round.
Offensive ranks: Second in points, 11th in yards
Defensive ranks: 15th in points, 25th in yards
Biggest offseason gain:Applying the franchise tag to RB Darren Sproles keeps the Chargers dynamic rushing duo intact for at least one more season.
Biggest offseason loss: Defensive end Igor Olshansky was a starter for the Chargers for five years.
Buyer beware: Running back LaDainian Tomlinson hits the dreaded age of 30 next week. There are questions about whether or not LT’s career is in decline. He’ll answer those questions this year.
Buy or Sell: BUY
The way I see it, 10 teams have at least a decent shot at making the playoffs in the AFC, and every division is up for grabs.
This kind of parity is part of what makes the NFL so exciting to follow and watch.
Published: June 17, 2009
It’s 97 degrees in southern Louisiana and that means one thing: Saints training camp is just a little over a month away.
As I gaze over the Saints’ roster, there are a few positions that are already spoken for.
There is no debate who reigns at quarterback and middle linebacker.
Other than that, however, there will be heavy competition at a number of positions.
Here is a list of five positions of which the competition should be the fiercest.
Running Back
Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will get the bulk of the carries. Deuce McAllister is gone and the Saints struggled to convert on third and short and goal line situations.
They need someone to emerge as the “thunder” in their rushing attack.
Mike Bell, Lynell Hamilton, P.J. Hill, Herb Donaldson are candidates to be the short-yardage back.
What else do they all have in common? They all broke into the NFL as undrafted rookies.
Bell signed with the Denver Broncos in 2006, Hamilton signed with the Saints in 2008, and Hill and Donaldson signed with the Saints in 2009.
Bell by far has the most playing experience of the quartet (that’s not saying much). He played in the final four games of 2008 for the Saints.
Hamilton’s only career game came in the season finale against the Carolina Panthers.
Hill played three seasons at the University of Wisconsin, while Donaldson finished four seasons at Western Illinois.
I expect that the Saints will keep only one or two of these players.
If the Saints keep two, one player will be the short-yardage specialist and the other will ride the bench until someone gets injured.
Competition should be fierce.
Wide Receiver
Five receivers caught at least 11 passes from Drew Brees and two others, Courtney Roby and Skyler Green, returned kicks.
I expect the Saints to keep six receivers.
While Marques Colston and Lance Moore are expected to be the starters, it really doesn’t matter who starts for this offense because the Saints so often use three and four wide receiver sets.
Drew Brees will get the ball to whomever is open, regardless of depth chart status.
The battle will be at the bottom of the depth chart.
Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, and Adrian Arrington will all be fighting for playing time as the third and fourth receivers.
Each receiver has their own strengths and weaknesses.
Henderson is the fastest receiver on the team and the team’s best deep threat, but has been inconsistent at catching the ball.
Meachem demonstrated flashes of great open field running. Of course, that was against the other team’s third and fourth string. His work ethic has been questioned by head coach Sean Payton.
Arrington also looked promising last preseason and was praised by the coaching staff. At 6’3″, he gives Brees another big target opposite 6’4″ Marques Colston. However, he has no regular season experience.
Finally, look for the Saints to keep either Courtney Roby or Skyler Green as the sixth receiver and kick returner.
Both players had a kick return of at least 60 yards last year. I expect their competition to come down to the last round of cuts in August.
Defensive Tackle
Second-year player Sedrick Ellis is entrenched as one of the starting tackles, but there will be a battle for the second starting spot.
Kendrick Clancy was the starter last year, but he is just average.
Contributors Hollis Thomas and Brian Young were cut in the offseason because of their inabilities to remain healthy.
Clancy’s main competition will come from second-year player DeMario Pressley and free agent Rod Coleman.
Both Pressley and Coleman both sat out 2008 to recover from injuries.
Outside Linebacker
The Saints are dying for some athleticism here.
Strongside linebacker Scott Fujita and weakside linebacker Scott Shanle have started for the past three seasons.
These two outside linebackers have been serviceable, but are not instrumental in forcing turnovers. Last season, they combine for two sacks, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and zero fumble recoveries.
Troy Evans is a special teams standout but hasn’t started a game in his seven-year career. He has never made a sack or forced a fumble.
Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams needs athletes who can be a threat to blitz on any down.
Enter JoLonn Dunbar and Marvin Mitchell.
Though not the best athletes at their positions, Dunbar and Mitchell, both 24, are significantly younger than Fujita, 30, and Shanle, 29.
Dunbar started two games last season.
While Mitchell played inside linebacker in college at the University of Tennessee, he will need to learn how to play outside if he wants to see the field as a pro. Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma played every down for the Saints last year.
Cornerback
After two years of futility, could this actually be the strength of the Saints’ defense?
Last year’s number one corner Mike McKenzie is gone after suffering major knee injuries in consecutive years, but second year player Tracy Porter, the other week one starter, is back after suffering a wrist injury against Minnesota.
The Saints signed veteran Jabari Greer away from Buffalo to replace McKenzie.
They also drafted Malcolm Jenkins out of Ohio State. Jenkins will likely be the nickel back (fifth defensive back) this year, but could turn into a starter at either cornerback or free safety within the next couple of years.
Randall Gay, who became a full-time starter after McKenzie and Porter went down, will be the Saints’ dime back (sixth defensive back).
He is more suited as a situational player than as a starter. He started only a handful of games in four years with the Patriots before arriving in New Orleans last year.
Veterans Jason David and Leigh Torrence will battle undrafted rookies Danny Gorrer and Reggie Jones for the final cornerback spot.
Gorrer played his college ball at Texas A&M, while Jones hails from Portland State.
I expect Leigh Torrence to make the team based on the team’s desire to re-sign him as a restricted free agent in the offseason.
The Saints will likely keep six cornerbacks. That means that either David, Gorrer or Jones will also make the team.
The Saints kept seven cornerbacks on the final 53 man roster last year but cut Jason Craft after just two games. Craft finished the season with the St. Louis Rams and former Saints head coach Jim Haslett.
There seems to always be one or two training camp surprises every year with the Saints.
In 2007, the Saints kept undrafted rookie Pierre Thomas in favor of fourth round pick Antonio Pittman.
In 2008, Taylor Melhaff and Andy Alleman were cut in favor of Martin Gramatica and Carl Nicks, respectively.
It’ll be an interesting summer as we wait and see which underdogs make the roster.
Published: June 14, 2009
The term “window of opportunity” is often associated with either a sense of urgency or desperation. This term is often used when discussing talented teams or players who have yet to win a title.
Whether it’s age, free agency, the opposition or the team’s talent, there are a number of factors that decide a team’s or individual’s window of opportunity.
The truth is that not every talented team or every great player will win a championship.
Michael Jordan and his Chicago Bulls prevented a number of great NBA players from winning a title.
John Stockton, Karl Malone and Charles Barkley are among a group of great players whose window of opportunity coincided with the prime of Jordan’s career.
Whenever we have the discussion of greatest players to never win a Super Bowl, Dan Marino’s name is often the first one to pop up.
Marino lost his only Super Bowl appearance in Super Bowl XIX to Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers. Since that was only Marino’s second season, many thought that he would certainly reach the Super Bowl again.
However, fellow 1983 draftees Jim Kelly and John Elway would combine to win nine AFC championships from 1986 until 1998, the year before Marino retired.
Elway nearly finished his career without a championship as well. Elway’s window of opportunity seemed be permanently shut closed after being blown out in his first three Super Bowls.
Elway’s window was re-opened with the arrival of RB Terrell Davis. Elway finally won his championship when he had a running game to complement his enormous passing ability.
The window of opportunity now applies to the New Orleans Saints. If the Saints are going to win their first ever championship, then they need to do so within the next three seasons.
A look at free agency tells the whole story.
By the end of the 2011 season, many of the Saints’ core players will be eligible for free agency.
It all starts with quarterback Drew Brees.
He signed a six-year, $60 million contract three years ago and will command big dollars in 2012, even if he gives the Saints a hometown discount.
Brees is 30 now and will turn 33 when he becomes a free agent.
Even if Brees re-signs with the team, several of his weapons will be too expensive to keep.
Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Robert Meachem and Jeremy Shockey will all be free agents in 2012. None of these players have ever tested the free agent market and may be tempted to do so.
Regardless, the Saints will not be able to afford all four of these players.
That’s not all for the Saints’ offense.
In 2011, young building blocks Adrian Arrington and Carl Nicks become restricted free agents. Because of the rules of restricted free agency, they will likely sign one-year tenders and become unrestricted free agents in 2012.
Whether it’s an inflated cap number or free agency, the contracts of several defensive players play a role in the Saints’ window of opportunity also.
Defensive backs Randall Gay and Tracy Porter will both be unrestricted free agents in 2012.
Linebacker JoLonn Dunbar and defensive end DeMarrio Pressley will be restricted free agents in 2011 and likely will become unrestricted free agents in 2011.
Then there’s defensive end Charles Grant.
Unless Grant ends four years of under performance with new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the Saints may cut him before he becomes a free agent in 2014. Grant is scheduled to count $8.55 million against the cap in 2012 and $11.55 million against the cap in 2013.
Keeping the Window Open
In 2012, Drew Brees, age 33, could conceivably still have three to five good years left. He would be the biggest offseason priority.
If the Saints want to keep this window open longer than three years, they are going to have to draft and develop good, young players.
Players picked in the second half of the first round often sign for five years at just a few million dollars per season. Players further down in the draft are locked up for three or four seasons at a price at or near the league minimum.
Young wide receivers Adrian Arrington and Robert Meachem should be cheap enough to re-sign and replace Marques Colston. They will just be entering their prime in 2012 as fifth- and sixth-year wide outs.
Over the next few seasons, I expect the Saints to make offensive line a big part of their draft priority.
Not only could they be losing Carl Nicks, but every other starting lineman other than Jon Stinchcomb will be a free agent between now and 2012.
Defensively, the Saints will need to focus their draft priorities on the outside.
They will need to focus on replacing veteran defensive ends Grant and Will Smith and outside linebackers Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle.
Smith’s contract situation is similar to Grant’s. He will count more than $6 million against the cap every year between now and 2014.
Fujita and Shanle will both be 31 win they become free agents in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The mere fact that the Saints are in the “window of opportunity” discussion shows how talented and capable they are. Now is the time to cash in before that window slams shut.
Published: June 10, 2009
Six teams from each conference make the playoffs each year, and about half of them miss out the following year.
Last season, only five playoff participants, and only one from the NFC, were also in the playoffs in 2007.
I’m taking a look around the NFL and gauging each team’s playoff hopes. Today, I’m judging the NFC.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
2008 Result: 9-7, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 14th in points, 26th in yards
Defensive ranks: 16th in points, 21st in yards
Biggest offseason gain: QB Jay Cutler, obviously.
Biggest offseason loss: The draft picks traded away to get Cutler included two first round selections and a third round selection.
Buyer Beware: Cutler doesn’t have nearly the weapons in Chicago as he had in Denver. RB Matt Forte led the Bears in receptions last year.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Detroit Lions
2008 Result: 0-16, worst. Record. Ever.
Offensive ranks: 27th in points, 30th in yards
Defensive ranks: Last in points, last in yards
Biggest offseason gain: QB Matthew Stafford
Biggest offseason loss: CB Leigh Bodden
Buyer Beware: There is nowhere to go but up for this franchise, but it will be a long time before they are playoff-worthy. Don’t expect Stafford to have a rookie season like Matt Ryan’s or Joe Flacco’s. Their successes were aberrations in a league that’s generally cruel to rookie quarterbacks.
Buy or Sell: SELL
Green Bay Packers
2008 Result: 6-10, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: Fifth in points, eighth in yards
Defensive ranks: 22nd in points, 20th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Defensive coordinator Dom Capers is converting the Packers from a 4-3 alignment to a 3-4 look.
Biggest offseason loss: DT Colin Cole. While just an average starter, Cole’s girth would have allowed him to sufficiently hold down the nose tackle spot while rookie B.J. Raji prepares for life in the NFL.
Buyer Beware: Just because some of the elite defenses like New England and Pittsburgh run a 3-4, that doesn’t mean that it will work immediately for all teams. I expect the transition for the Packers’ defense to take a full year because they are relying on two rookies, Raji and Clay Matthews, to assume major roles.
Buy or Sell: SELL, but watch out for 2010.
Minnesota Vikings
2008 Result: 10-6, division champs, lost in wild card round
Offensive ranks: 12th in points, 17th in yards
Defensive ranks: 13th in points, sixth in yards
Biggest offseason gain: WR Percy Harvin. Of course, we all know that another person’s name could be in this spot soon.
Biggest offseason loss: C Matt Birk
Buyer Beware: RB Adrian Peterson is a workhorse back with a punishing running style. He may not be able to make it through the season without missing a game or two or more.
Buy or Sell: BUY
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
2008 Result: 11-5, lost in wild card round
Offensive ranks: 10th in points, sixth in yards
Defensive ranks: 11th in points, 24th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: TE Tony Gonzalez
Biggest offseason loss: A collection of five defensive veterans, including linebackers Keith Brooking and Michael Boley.
Buyer Beware: The Falcons have never had consecutive winning seasons. The defense has a lot of room for improvement with the loss of five major contributors.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Carolina Panthers
2008 Result: 12-4, division champs, lost in divisional round
Offensive ranks: Seventh in points, 10th in yards
Defensive ranks: 12th in points, 18th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: DE Everette Brown
Biggest offseason loss: Now that CB Ken Lucas is gone, who is Steve Smith going to punch and be forgiven by in an effort to unite the team?
Buyer Beware: No rest for the weary down the stretch thanks to a Week Four bye. They have three straight December games against the Patriots, Vikings, and Giants.
Buy or Sell: BUY
New Orleans Saints
2008 Result: 8-8, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: First in points, first in yards
Defensive ranks: 26th in points, 23rd in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Williams should have a more immediate impact in New Orleans than Capers will in Green Bay because he is not changing alignments. Williams promises an attacking scheme instead of the “bend but don’t break” method the Saints have been used to.
Biggest offseason loss: RB Deuce McAllister is an icon in New Orleans, and his leadership will be missed.
Buyer Beware: A comparison of the offensive and defensive rankings sums up the Saints’ problems over the past two seasons.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2008 Result: 9-7, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 19th in points, 14th in yards
Defensive ranks: 10th in points, ninth in yards
Biggest offseason gain: QB Byron Leftwich helps to ease Josh Freeman’s transition into the NFL.
Biggest offseason loss: Tampa Bay lost a slew of veterans on both sides of the ball including LB Derrick Brooks and RB Warrick Dunn.
Buyer Beware: After gutting the roster, the Bucs are going to struggle in a such a strong division.
Buy or Sell: SELL
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
2008 Result: 9-7, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 18th in points, 13th in yards
Defensive ranks: 20th in points, eighth in yards
Biggest offseason gain: LB Keith Brooking brings leadership to a sometimes combustible locker room.
Biggest offseason loss: The Cowboys will miss Terrell Owens’ touchdowns, but they won’t miss his drops or the hoopla surrounding him. I will go with LB Greg Ellis and the 20.5 sacks he’s had over the past two seasons.
Buyer Beware: The Cowboys are 5-8 in December over the past three seasons. Their last five games (four in December and one in January) are against teams who were all at or above .500 last year.
Buy or Sell: BUY
New York Giants
2008 Result: 12-4, division champs, lost in divisional round
Offensive ranks: Third in points, seventh in yards
Defensive ranks: Fifth in points, fifth in yards
Biggest offseason gain: The addition of LB Chris Canty, along with Antonio Pierce and Danny Clark, gives the Giants a very formidable trio of linebackers.
Biggest offseason loss: Not that they had any choice, but they will miss WR Plaxico Burress’ big-play ability.
Buyer Beware: In addition to Burress, RB Derrick Ward is gone. Ward had more than 1,000 yards last year and averaged 5.6 yards per carry.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Philadelphia Eagles
2008 Result: 9-6-1, lost in conference championship game
Offensive ranks: Sixth in points, ninth in yards
Defensive ranks: Fourth in points, third in yards
Biggest offseason gain: WR Jeremy Maclin.
Biggest offseason loss: We don’t know if defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will miss any games as he battles cancer, so, until further notice, I’m going with S Brian Dawkins.
Buyer Beware: As recent surgery shows, RB Brian Westbrook often plays hurt and banged up. His presence is vital to the success of the this offense.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Washington Redskins
2008 Result: 8-8, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 28th in points, 19th in yards
Defensive ranks: Sixth in points, fourth in yards
Biggest offseason gain: $100 million man and DT Albert Haynesworth.
Biggest offseason loss: G Pete Kendall started every game over the past two seasons.
Buyer Beware: After starting the season 6-2, the Redskins finished 2008 on a 2-6 slide.
Buy or Sell: SELL
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
2008 Result: 9-7, division champs, lost Super Bowl
Offensive ranks: Fourth in points, fourth in yards
Defensive ranks: 28th in points, 19th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Re-signing QB Kurt Warner
Biggest offseason loss: J.J. Arrington is a force as a kick returner. He is pivotal in the battle for field position.
Buyer Beware: The Cardinals made the playoffs because they won one of the worst divisions in recent memory and then got hot enough to get to the Super Bowl.
Buy or Sell: SELL
San Francisco 49ers
2008 Result: 7-9, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 22nd in points, 23rd in yards
Defensive ranks: 23rd in points, 13th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: WR Michael Crabtree was the highest-rated player in many draft boards.
Biggest offseason loss: WR Bryant Johnson could have been a good No. 3 receiver for either Shaun Hill or Alex Smith.
Buyer Beware: RB Frank Gore has been injury-prone since his days at the University of Miami. San Francisco needs him in order to be successful.
Buy or Sell: BUY
Seattle Seahawks
2008 Result: 4-12, missed playoffs
Offensive ranks: 25th in points, 28th in yards
Defensive ranks: 25th in points, 30th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
Biggest offseason loss: DT Rocky Bernard.
Buyer Beware: I don’t trust QB Matt Hasselbeck’s back to hold up through a full 16-game season.
Buy or Sell: SELL
St. Louis Rams
2008 Result: 2-14, picked No. 2 overall for the second straight year.
Offensive ranks: 31st in points, 27th in yards
Defensive ranks: 31st in points, 28th in yards
Biggest offseason gain: Jason Smith gives the Rams a franchise left tackle for the next decade.
Biggest offseason loss: When you go 2-14 and look as bad as the Lions, you don’t have much to lose. However, they will miss WR Torry Holt.
Buyer Beware: There are so many holes on this team that it will take at least two seasons before they make the playoffs.
Buy or Sell: SELL
Conclusion
There are nine NFC teams that I feel have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. I expect the division races in the East and South to come down to the wire. Five teams will be fighting for two wild card berths.
Published: June 4, 2009
Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the most popular players in the NFL and is arguably the face of the Jacksonville franchise.
He exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2006 as his 15 offensive touchdowns made him a fantasy steal.
Allow me to introduce to you the fantasy steal of 2009: New Orleans Saints running back Pierre Thomas.
Thomas is literally and figuratively a poor man’s Jones-Drew.
In April, two months after cutting the franchise’s all-time leading rusher Fred Taylor, the Jaguars awarded Jones-Drew with a five-year, $31 million contract.
Thomas is scheduled to make $460,000 this season and will be a restricted free agent in 2010.
The styles of both running backs are very similar.
Jones-Drew and Thomas run well between the tackles. They each possess good speed, but neither is a blazer.
Both running backs are assets as blockers.
Who can forget Jones-Drew de-cleating Shawne Merriman? If you need a reminder, click here.
Thomas is part of a group that consistently keeps Drew Brees from getting sacked. Being a good blocker is a prerequisite for any running back in Sean Payton’s pass-happy offense.
Both players are threats to run and catch the ball on offense and also contribute as kick returners.
Let’s take a look at their 2008 offensive numbers:
Maurice Jones-Drew
Rushing
Receiving
Total Offense
Pierre Thomas
Rushing
Receiving
Total Offense
Jacksonville has far less weapons than New Orleans. Therefore, Maurice Jones-Drew means more to his team than does Pierre Thomas.
However, look for both players to see an increase in their roles for their respective offenses.
Jones-Drew will serve as the primary ball carrier now that Taylor is playing for New England. His new back-ups have a grand total of 62 career carries.
Thomas is emerging as the Saints’ primary running back. His carries per game doubled from from 2007 to 2008. He averaged 15.5 carries per game in his last six games.
The Saints desperately need a running back to emerge as a consistent force between the tackles.
Pierre Thomas has done everything he can this offseason to prepare to fill that void. He has added 10 pounds of muscle to endure the increased pounding, and has increased his squats from 495 pounds to 675 pounds to be better prepared to break tackles.
If it means anything, Drew Brees thinks that Thomas is ready to be the number one back.
Everyone knows about Maurice Jones-Drew. In many fantasy football circles, he is sure to be drafted as one of the top 10 running backs.
If you need a good second running back and a fantasy sleeper, Pierre Thomas would be a wise choice.
Published: May 30, 2009
Perhaps there is no closer relationship in the NFL between an offensive-minded head coach and a quarterback than there is with Saints head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees.
They both arrived in New Orleans in 2006 and have consistently produced top-five offenses.
Brees finished second in the MVP voting in 2006 and was the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2008.
Payton and Brees always seem to be on the same wavelength when it comes to play-calling and personnel packages.
So why not implement a no-huddle offense?
I’m not talking about a part-time, two minute drill no-huddle. I’m talking about a full-time no-huddle offense.
Sam Wyche, one time head coach of a good Cincinnati Bengals team, implemented a full-time no-huddle offense with quarterback Boomer Esiason. Esiason won the 1988 MVP award and led the Bengals to the Super Bowl the same season.
The Buffalo Bills, led by head coach Marv Levy and quarterback Jim Kelly, adopted the no-huddle offense after losing to the Bengals in the 1988 AFC championship game.
Starting in 1990, the Bills proceeded to win four straight AFC titles. Say what you want about their four subsequent losses in the Super Bowl, but it is more success than the Saints have ever had.
The Saints can pass and score with the best of them already, so you may be saying, “Don’t fix what isn’t broken,” but the reality is that the Saints’ offense could use some tweaking.
Yeah, the Saints need to run the ball better, especially in short-yardage situations. Let’s get real, though. Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis can talk all they want about getting or developing another running back to replace Deuce McAllister, but the Saints are still going to throw the ball 60 percent of the time.
The Saints are notoriously slow starters and often put up the bulk of their offensive numbers after the first quarter.
In the first quarters of games in 2008, the Saints were shut out six times and scored just 67 of their 463 points, only 14 percent. They scored a touchdown in the first quarter in just five games, but were 4-1 in those games.
For instance, the Saints scored 32 points in a loss at Denver but only scored three of those points in the first quarter fell behind 21-3.
The San Francisco 49ers shut out the Saints in the first quarter before the Saints exploded for 21 points in the second quarter.
The Saints twice used the fourth quarter to pad their stats in losses to division opponents after the game was out of reach. New Orleans scored 14 points in the fourth quarter in a 30-24 loss to Atlanta, and scored 21 points in the fourth quarter of a 33-31 loss to Carolina.
We can blame the defense all we want for the eight losses, and yes, they deserve a great deal of the blame, but perhaps that Saints would win a couple more games if they got off to better starts.
Brees is more of a player/coach rather than just a player and is more than capable of running a no-huddle. He knows his playbook and understands the nuances of the offense as well as anyone. His relentless film work allows him to read defenses and make changes on the fly.
New Orleans has enough versatile weapons to go an entire series without substituting. Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas can both take hand offs and catch passes out of the backfield. Heath Evans, the new fullback, is a triple threat to block, run, and receive. Jeremy Shockey is useful in both the run and pass game.
Versatility, which was one of the themes of the Saints’ offseason, allows the Saints to exploit favorable match-ups.
Here’s an example of how the no-huddle can help the Saints.
Let’s say the Saints begin a game with Marques Colston and Lance Moore at receiver, Shockey at tight end, and Bush and Thomas at running back. If Bush and Thomas are both in the backfield on first down, then the opposing team is probably in their base 4-3 or 3-4 defense. If the Saints go without a huddle on second down, they can put Bush in the slot without allowing the opposing team to switch to a nickel defense.
Remember, if the offense doesn’t substitute, then the referees don’t have to allow time for the defense to substitute.
We are in age of defensive specialization.
There are defensive ends who get paid millions to only play during passing situations. They are good at rushing the quarterback but are poor against the run.
There are linebackers who are fierce against the run but are worthless in pass coverage. This is how the Miami Dolphins ruined the Chicago Bears’ perfect season in 1985.
Believe it or not, there are defensive backs who can’t play the pass. We politely call them “in-the-box” safeties, such as Roy Williams and Roman Harper.
The no-huddle exploits defenses that are chock full of defensive specialists.
Not only would a no-huddle provide for favorable match-ups, but it will eventually wear down defenses.
The Saints would not have to run a hurry-up offense just because they go without a huddle. Peyton Manning often uses a no-huddle and still waits until there are only a few seconds left on the play clock before he calls for a snap.
The Saints’ offense is not as prolific as Saints fans and the NFL media seem to think.
It’s a good offense but it could use a little bit of work. Throw in a no-huddle offense with an improved run game, and we could be talking about an “all-time” offense before everything is all said and done.
Published: May 27, 2009
Peter King of SI.com is one of the most respected NFL writers on the planet, and his column is always a must read. In an article he wrote last week http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/05/20/vick/index.html, he listed the New Orleans Saints as the top possible destination for Vick to land.
Run that by me again?
I had to scroll back to the top to make sure the article wasn’t about the least likely destinations for Mike Vick.
I had thought all along that Vick just wouldn’t fit in New Orleans. The Saints already have one of the best, if not the best, offenses in the league. They have a bonafide top three quarterback in 2008 Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees. Brees has an arsenal of weapons with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey and more.
The more I thought about it, though, the more I warmed up to the idea of Vick donning the black and gold. The Saints have so much talent offensively and have rebuilt their defense that this year is playoffs or bust. Some may say playoff wins or bust. He would increase the Saints’ chances of making a deep playoff run.
If the Saints indeed sign Mike Vick, there are several factors they have to consider:
1) Will the city of New Orleans welcome Mike Vick?
In a word: Yes.
More specifically, the city of New Orleans is starving for a champion. The Saints have been in existence since 1967 and have yet to make it to the Super Bowl. None of the city’s former or current basketball franchises have won titles either.
The only professional championship belonging to New Orleans was won in 1998 by the New Orleans Zephyrs (then the Triple-A affiliate of the Houston Astros).
New Orleans is ready for a major league winner.
There will be legions of hometown skeptics, but those naysayers will jump on the bandwagon the first time he turns a nothing play into a 40-yard, ankle-breaking touchdown scamper.
2) Can Vick handle all of the scrutiny and boos he will receive on the road?
The intensity of the local and national media Monday through Saturday will be nothing compared to the negativity that welcomes him on the road on Sundays.
If Vick does join the Saints, every football fan will have December 13 circled on their calendar. That’s when Saints visit the city that idolized Vick and play his former team, the Atlanta Falcons.
I’m not sure how Vick will be received in Atlanta, but I do know that atmosphere will be electric.
3) Can the Saints’ locker room handle all of the baggage that comes with Mike Vick?
While the Saints have a lot of young players on the team, they also have a lot of strong, veteran leaders. Brees, Billy Miller, Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith, Scott Fujita, and Darren Sharper all bring well-grounded leadership to a cohesive locker room. They will allow Vick to find his niche with the Saints.
4) How would head coach Sean Payton use him and what position would he play?
Mike Vick was a quarterback at Virginia Tech and for the Falcons. The problem with making him a quarterback if/when he returns is that he would have to be the number two quarterback for the Saints.
NFL rules stipulate that if a team uses its number three quarterback before the fourth quarter, they cannot re-insert the first- or second-string quarterback.
I don’t think Vick’s style of quarterback play suits the Saints. The Saints passing attack is predicated on pinpoint accuracy. Vick’s career completion percentage of 53.8 is unacceptable by NFL standards and is ten percentage points lower than Brees’ career mark. If you add in the fact that he has missed two full NFL seasons, and he would have had virtually no reps with the receivers, then he is not a viable option as a backup quarterback if Brees goes down for significant time,
The Saints should use Vick the same way they use Bush. They would have to get the man in space to create one on one match-ups.
Saints fans, just imagine a formation with Brees under center, Colston and Moore and the speedy Henderson split out wide, Bush at tailback and Vick in motion out of the backfield. This would present match-up nightmares for any defense.
If Payton decides to use the Wildcat, Vick would be in an offense tailor-made for his unique skill set. Despite some problems with accuracy, his threat as a passer would make him the most dangerous player in the NFL.
NFL and Saints fans must get this straight first: Before fans can even think about Mike Vick joining their team, he must complete a long and strenuous road.
He must finish out the remaining two months of his house arrest, be reinstated into the NFL by commissioner Roger Goodell, and agree upon a release settlement with the Atlanta Falcons. Upon reinstatement to NFL, Vick will owe the Falcons between $6.5 million and $7.5 million before he can sign with another team.
Mike Vick would give the Saints the undisputed most explosive offense in the NFL and make them the most talked about team this side of Dallas.
Is Mike Vick worth them gamble and headache? We may all find out this summer.
Published: May 13, 2009
The journey continues to find the best division in the NFL. This is the third article in a seven part, bracket-style series that pits one division against another.
Today, I’m going with the NFC East vs. the NFC West.
Arizona’s NFC championship makes this an intriguing matchup. At one time the Cardinals were the red-headed step-child of the NFC East, as they were the only member of that division to never make it to a Super Bowl.
They were kicked out of the division in favor of re-alignment in 2002. Then, just six years later, they are NFC champs.
I will lay out the facts about the division and give you my all-division teams, but it is up to you to decide which division moves on to face the NFC South in the conference championship round.
There were 16 East vs. West regular season games last season and the East dominated with 11 victories. In postseason play, however, the Cardinals avenged an earlier loss to the Eagles to advance to the Super Bowl.
All NFC East Team
Offense
Quarterback: Donovan McNabb
Wide Receivers: Santana Moss, DeSean Jackson, Roy Williams
Running Backs: Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs
Tight End: Jason Witten
Tackles:Chris Samuels, Flozell Adams
Guards: Leonard Davis, Chris Snee
Center: Andre Gurode
Defense
Defensive Ends: Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora
Defensive Tackles: Jay Ratliff, Albert Haynesworth
Outside Linebackers: DeMarcus Ware, Rocky McIntosh
Inside Linebackers: London Fletcher, Bradie James
Cornerbacks: Asante Samuel, Terrance Newman
Strong Safety: Quintin Mikell
Free Safety: LaRon Landry
Special Teams
Placekicker: David Akers
Punter: Jeff Feagles
Kick Returner: Rock Cartwright
Punt Returner: DeSean Jackson
All NFC-West Team
Offense
Quarterback: Kurt Warner
Wide Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Anquan Boldin
Running Backs: Steven Jackson, Frank Gore
Tight End: John Carlson
Tackles: Walter Jones, Mike Gandy
Guards: Mike Wahle, Reggie Wells
Center: Eric Heitmann
Defense
Defensive Ends: Patrick Kerney, Justin Smith
Defensive Tackles: Cory Redding, Darnell Dockett
Outside Linebackers: Karlos Dansby, Pisa Tinoisamoa
Inside Linebackers: Patrick Willis, Lofa Tatupu
Cornerbacks: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Josh Wilson
Strong Safety: Adrian Wilson
Free Safety: Oshiomogho Atogwe
Special Teams
Placekicker: Josh Brown
Punter: Donnie Jones
Kick Returner: Allen Rossum
Punt Returner: Allen Rossum
Please participate in the poll. Your votes decide which conference moves on to face the NFC South in the conference championship!
Published: May 7, 2009
There have been numerous reports around the web and local radio that the New Orleans Saints are interested in adding Edgerrin James to their roster. I am not a Saints’ insider and do not have sources within the organization, but I do not think the Saints will sign the 10-year veteran.
Not only do I think the Saints won’t sign James, but I also think he would be a bad fit.
New Orleans Cannot Afford Him
Edgerrin James made at least $5 million in base salary in each of the past two seasons. In addition, he collected $11.5 million in bonus money just three years ago.
The Saints are tight against the salary cap and still must save money to sign their rookies, especially first-round pick Malcolm Jenkins. I do not think the Saints would be able to guarantee enough money to lure James to the Big Easy.
The Saints Already Have Running Backs
I believe that Pierre Thomas is a true diamond in the rough and a star in the making. In 2007, the season ended just as soon as he arrived. In his first career start, Thomas was the ultimate dual threat against the Chicago Bears. He had over 100 yards rushing and receiving. Then, poof, the season was over.
In 2008, Thomas got the opportunity to carry the ball at least 10 times in seven games. In those games, he had 527 rushing yards and 9 total touchdowns. That’s a great pace for any running back.
The Saints also have Reggie Bush. Though not a diamond in the rough, Reggie is a star in his own right. He and Thomas are going to get the majority of the carries.
The Saints have three running backs who are in serious contention to take the load off of Thomas and Bush and become the short yardage back.
Mike Bell (6’0″, 225 lbs), formerly of the Denver Broncos, appeared in four games for the Saints last season. His best season came in 2006 when he had nearly 700 yards and eight touchdowns.
Herb Donaldson (5’11”, 225 lbs), an undrafted free agent, was so sought after by seven other NFL teams, that he was able to land a three-year contract with the Saints. Donaldson was known for his tough running at Western Illinois.
Lynell Hamilton (6’0″, 235 lbs) was acquired last season as an undrafted free agent. Hamilton appeared in one game but did not accumulate any statistics.
Edgerrin James is on the Decline
There are several numbers that do not favor James:
Age: 31 before the start of the season. Running backs do not get better after 30.
Carries: 2,982 regular season carries. He has at least 310 carries in seven seasons and has averaged 21 carries per game for his career. He has 800 more carries than Shaun Alexander, and his downfall is well-documented.
Yards per carry: He failed crack 4.0 yards per carry in three seasons in Arizona. In seven prior seasons in Indianapolis, he averaged over 4.0 yards per carry six times. This is another sign of wear and tear.
Attitude
To an extent, the Edge brought about his own release in Arizona. He complained publicly about his role in the offense even as the Cardinals rolled through the playoffs.
If he was unhappy in Arizona, he will be a grumpy old man in New Orleans. The Saints’ pass-happy offense and running back depth will only allow James to get a small handful of carries per game.
The Saints do not need a potentially divisive force in the locker room as they make their own Super Bowl push.
Edgerrin James would be a square peg in a round hole in New Orleans. He would be a better fit for a power-running club that can give a backup 8-10 carries per game.