San Diego Chargers Boltbits: Pick Your Poison in the AFC Wildcard Race

With one game remaining in the regular season, San Diego already has its first round opponent set: no one. The team earned itself a first round bye upon defeating Tennessee soundly in an early week 16 matchup. Who is playing in that first round is still a question mark.

The New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals have their divisions locked up, though they are still jostling for who will take the third seed and who the fourth. Both hold the same records though New England holds a tie-breaker advantage that would give it the third seed if both teams win (or if both lose).

The wildcard picture is far more muddled. Technically the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets hold the wildcard berths at the moment. They are two among five teams with 8-7 records however, holding the advantage by slim tie-breaking advantages. Any one of those five teams could feasibly be entering the playoffs, but which two would benefit San Diego most?

Two factors play into this. The first being the capacity for a wildcard to beat (or at the very least, beat up) the home team in the first round. Should New England and Cincinnati glide through to the second round, it makes no difference.

The other factor to consider is who the Chargers themselves match up against best. With certain matchups it may be to San Diego’s benefit to have the home team win in the first round. Here’s a look at the various teams in play and how the playoff situation would affect San Diego:

 

Denver Broncos

After going a mighty 6-0 during which they embarrassed the San Diego Chargers at home, the Broncos are now among the weakest in the pack. They hold few tie-breakers, and share the worst second half record (2-5) with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

What they can do in the playoffs: Not much. Of the five wildcards, they would rate both least likely to defeat New England or Cincinnati, and least likely to push one of those two teams to be worn out for Round Two. 

Ironically, there’s one major feather in Denver’s cap: wins over both New England and Cincinnati. This may play to the Broncos disadvantage (especially against the Patriots) as those two teams will be out to avenge those regular season losses; they’ll be going for blood.

They also factor low into San Diego’s relevancy because of the likelihood that, even in getting into the playoffs, they would probably hold the sixth seed; thus facing Indianapolis should they make it to the divisional round.

If they face San Diego, the matchup works well for San Diego. They embarrassed Denver to reclaim the AFC West the last time these two teams squared off. The Broncos have shown few signs of life while San Diego has been on a tear.

Denver’s success has stemmed from a stingier-than-expected defense this year. They rate fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed. In the last ten games however, they have allowed 20 or more points eight times (seven of those being losses), making their overall defensive ranking a deceiving stat.

On offense the Broncos run a balanced attack with the 15th rated rushing offense and 18th rated passing game. They are actually both the lowest scoring 8-7 team (302 points, nine behind the Jets) and have the worst point differential at +22 (16 behind Pittsburgh). 

Ultimately they are both the least likely to see the Chargers, and the easiest matchup.

 

Houston Texans

The Texans have ridden a three game winning streak to go back into contention. They still need a lot of luck in order to make the playoffs, but hold a few tiebreakers.

What they can do in the playoffs: While more equipped to handle a team in the first round than Denver, they are still a big question mark. I believe they can do some damage against New England, thanks to their high powered passing game and the Patriots’ shakier-than-normal defense. Cincinnati, despite its present backslide, would handle the Texans well on paper. 

The Bengals sport a tough defense with good corners. The vulnerability of missing Maualuga is tempered by a shaky Houston running game where Slaton is on IR, Ryan Moats has gone up and down the depth chart and Arian Foster has one solid game to his credit.

Should they face the Colts in the second round, that would be an interesting pairing. They have a terrible interdivisional record, including losing both matchups with Indianapolis; yet the two losses against the Colts were by a combined 11 points. The Colts should be able to handle them in the playoffs but will have to work to do so…which could be helpful.

If they face San Diego: This is an interesting matchup as both teams are so similar, on many levels. They both pair top tier passing offenses (fifth for San Diego, second for Houston) with disappointing running offenses (29th for San Diego and 31st for Houston). 

They also rate similarly on defense, with Houston holding the 14th ranked defense in the NFL while San Diego holds the 15th. The two teams are separated by a mere .7 yards per game. The difference between the two, however, stems from strengths. Houston’s defense is led by stopping the run, ranked 13th (as compared to 17th against the pass). San Diego is stronger against the pass (ninth) than the running game (23rd).

To further the idea of rank-related strengths, also remember that San Diego has enjoyed far more leads deep into games. This reduces the number of passes thrown by Rivers while increasing the times an opposing team need throw the football. A 10-5 San Diego would likely move up a rank or two in the passing game on offense and defense.

With the Chargers’ offensive strength playing to Houston’s defensive weakness, along with the Texans’ strength going against that of the Chargers defense, the matchup among pass-centric teams looks to lean heavily to San Diego.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The most unusual team present. When Pittsburgh wins they have generally looked like the former Super Bowl champs they are. When losing, the Steelers have looked downright awful, falling to three top-ten drafting teams. The team’s conference record means they rate just about last in tie-breaker situations, and need three of the four other 8-7’s to lose while winning to earn a playoff berth.

What they can do in the playoffs: This is contingent upon a couple of factors. The first would be injured safety Troy Polamalu, who is questionable for the final game against Miami. His availability in the wildcard round is likely also debatable should he miss week 17. Even playing, it is unknown whether he will be at full effectiveness. Should he be close to his usual pro-bowl self, this team will be very dangerous.

The second is just which Steelers team shows up. Even without Polamalu, this is a team that should have easily handled Oakland, Cleveland, and Kansas City. With a fairly kind schedule, considering they were the NFL champions, this team should have fielded 10-11 wins easily. 

Despite all that, they have also defeated the Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings. They are a big physical team with playoff experience and should they be able to eke out a playoff berth, they will be very dangerous.

If they face San Diego: Two things stick out. One is that Pittsburgh’s confidence would be at an all time high as it will likely mean they have dispatched the Patriots (or Bengals) and the Colts (the odds of a fifth seed are incredibly low). With Polamalu playing, the Steelers are just as dangerous as any divisional team, and their physicality doesn’t always stack up well against San Diego.

That said, it was a different San Diego team in week four. They were still reeling from injuries incurred in week one, had not figured out even a modest running game, were playing on the road, and lacked their identity. This Chargers team will not be intimidated in the same manner.

To San Diego’s favor, Pittsburgh has shifted from the running game to a more pass-centric offense. They still boast a stout defense (sixth in the league), but like Houston, are a team that fares much better against the run (third) than pass (16th).   

 

New York Jets

The current sixth seed. They were considered out of contention when they dropped to 4-6 following a 3-0 start. The team still holds a chip on its shoulder, though it has been tempered by their midseason difficulties. The Jets earned their way back into the fold by going 3-1 in the last four games.

What they can do in the playoffs: The win against New England seems a long time ago.  Tom Brady is not shaking any rust away and Mark Sanchez looks much more like a rookie. Still, they have the swagger, running game, and a shut-down defense. They probably lack the firepower to push them over the top, but should push and beat up on whatever team they face; especially a Cincinnati team short a key run-game stopper in Maualuga.

If they face San Diego: Just as the Houston matchup was interesting for similar strengths, this one is interesting for the strength against weakness aspect of these grossly opposite teams.

The Jets hold the best pass defense in football (though they are top 10 against the run as well); impressive given that they have played the Patriots twice, the Saints, Texans, and Colts, once. With one of the best cover corners in football, the Chargers will need to utilize Gates and Sproles in the passing game to overcome the tough Jets lineup.

The Jets offense, centered around Thomas Jones, is a bit less frightening. After some early success, they have become one-dimensional, leading the league in rushing while paired with the 30th ranked passing game. Mark Sanchez is second in the league with 20 interceptions despite missing some time to injury. San Diego will need to commit Weddle or Ellison to the run at all times. 

 

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are the current fifth seed, riding the most consistent season of any 8-7 team. After a 3-0 start slipped to 3-3, the team has alternated a win with a loss in every game barring one: a back-to-back pair of wins against against Detroit and Chicago. A win against Pittsburgh in week 16 would have secured their playoff fate; instead they must work for a victory in the final week. Should they win against the Raiders, they hold almost every tie-breaking scenario and are the most probable of the five to be in the playoffs.

What they can do in the playoffs: Quite a lot. The Ravens’ defense looked old and worn out during a 3-6 midseason stretch, but has regained its hard-hitting form, holding opponents to 30 points in the last three games. They have lost twice to the Bengals but both in close fashion to a Cincinnati team that was performing much better than they are of late.

New England can be made one-dimensional by the balanced Ravens defense (third overall behind the sixth best passing and rushing defenses), and Joe Flacco is better suited than Mark Sanchez to exploit a sometimes vulnerable Patriots defense. Across all aspects, the Ravens ultimately seem to be the most likely team to make it to the second round.

If they face San Diego: Like Pittsburgh (and to a lesser extent, due to the split Denver), the Ravens can claim a regular season win over San Diego. Unlike the Steelers however, the Ravens can also tack on that they have won IN San Diego. The Chargers are playing much better football, but it is still a bit of a danger.

The Chargers will need to work to eliminate the Ravens middling (15th ranked) passing offense, and make Baltimore one-dimensional on offense. They also will have to utilize their versatile stable of running backs to get past a Baltimore front line that effectively shut down a Sproles-led running game in week three. 

Feeding the ball to all three leading rushers to keep bodies fresh, while spreading out the passing game to keep the Ravens from stacking the middle, will be vital. The Ravens maintain that AFC North identity of big tough teams that boast good, hard-hitting defenses. San Diego would rather not have to face that.

 

So what does it all mean? Who does San Diego want to see playing in the wildcard game? Denver would be an obvious choice as the most beatable, but are unlikely to make much noise against New England or Cincinnati. 

The Ravens and Steelers both boast the best chances to advance past the Patriots and Bengals, but does San Diego want to go toe-to-toe with big physical AFC North teams that have beaten San Diego in the regular season? Probably not.

Ultimately, I think Houston and New York are the ideal teams to advance. Both have some capacity to win in the first round, and cause damage to their opponents should they lose. Ironically, if these two teams win, week 18 will be identical to week 17. Houston is facing New England and Cincinnati plays New York. More likely will be the wildcard round reflecting the current seeding, with Denver possibly taking New York’s place thanks to a Kansas City Chiefs matchup.

Oddly, because of all this, it may just behoove San Diego fans to spend week 17 rooting for division rivals, as Denver and Oakland winning would go a long way towards keeping the AFC North out of both wildcard berths.

Final Note: For Chargers fans, I know the “Boltbits” nomenclature is a little corny, but wanted something just to put a bit of a stamp on these. Please let me know if you have any recommendations or just what you think of this one. Thanks for the time and reads.

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In the AFC Wildcard Race 9-7 Is the New 10-6

What a difference a few weeks can make.  From midseason (weeks 8/9/10) stretching through to the three-quarter mark (weeks 12/13) it appeared that any team would need at least a 10-6 record to be able to secure a wild card seeding and a playoff berth.

Jacksonville and Denver had the inside tracks to both seeds with 8-4 and 7-5 records, respectively.  Three straight losses to each team have now confused the race.  Neither team now holds a playoff seed—those wild card leads now belong to Baltimore and the New York Jets, two teams thought to have lost just enough games to be out of contention not too long ago.

They are not the only teams to appear resurrected.  In addition to the Jacksonville, New York, and Denver, 8-7 records were also earned by Pittsburgh and Houston after each won against tough opponents.

Near rebirths of two other teams were thwarted in week 16, with Tennessee and Miami both falling to 7-8 after overcoming starts that had been considered a death knell for each.  These two added to the picture gives the AFC eight teams within one game of .500.

Tennessee’s 0-6 start was nearly overcome thanks to a 7-1 stretch that paired with several other teams tumbling.  Their bid at an unlikely playoff berth was thwarted by scheduling however, as the team ran into both the No. 1 (Indianapolis) and No. 2 (San Diego) seeds in the AFC.

Miami overcame injured reserve appearances to starting quarterback Chad Pennington and starting running back (and wildcat orchestrator) Ronnie Brown, as well as a slow start (0-3 and 2-4) to push for not only a wild card berth, but to put a brief scare into New England in the divisional race.  In a bid for playoff opportunity head-to-head with Houston, the Texans this week came away the winner to end Miami’s bid.

Now the best record an AFC wild card team can hope for is 9-7.  It is also a distinct possibility that an 8-8 team might just earn a wild card.  The NFL wanted parity, and there it is in action.  Whether it speaks to the great balance of the league or to the poor consistency of the teams in question can be debated.

Four of the five 8-7 teams had suffered a key loss during the season that had appeared to cement a playoff view from their respective couches.  The only exception, Denver, had started the season 6-0 before stumbling the rest of the way during a 2-7 stretch. 

They had appeared to regain some balance, winning two straight over Kansas City and the New York Giants to recover back to 7-4.  Ultimately the rebound was short lived as the team has failed in all three games since.

Houston has been the inverse to Denver and Jacksonville, winning three straight to recover its playoff chances after a 5-7 record following a defeat to that Jacksonville Jaguars team in week 13.  The Texans powerhouse passing game has been able to wreak havoc outside its own division (6-2 in non-divisional games) but will have a tough fight on its hands.

The Houston Texans will go against 10-5 New England, who will very likely be fighting for its third seed in week 17.  The Patriots hold the tie-breaker over Cincinnati but also play seven hours ahead of the Bengals.  With no way to know that game, New England will have to play as if Cincinnati were the victor in its own match.  Holding few tie-breakers, Houston will have to hope for a few stumbles among to pull off a wild card berth.

Pittsburgh was much more consistent than Tennessee early, jumping out to a 6-2 record.  Like the Texans though, they have been ravaged by their own division, going 2-4.  Peculiar playcalling, key injuries, and fourth quarter letups have plagued the Steelers in the second half where they have gone 2-5.

During that 2-5 second half, all losses came back to back, a skid that included embarrassing losses to the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cleveland Browns.  Strangely, the Steelers turnaround to revive its playoffs chances came against two teams that have nearly double the wins of those three aforementioned teams (18-12).

Pittsburgh has a solid match-up against Miami to attempt to secure a wild card, but also needs some help.  Like Houston, the Steelers match up very poorly in most tie-breaker situations and will look for Baltimore and New York especially to falter.

New York appeared dead at 4-6 following a 3-0 start.  Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez had crashed back down to rookie status by racking up an interception total that would have lead the league if Jay Cutler weren’t around.  The team’s lone win came against a lowly Raiders team still helmed by Jamarcus Russell, and optimism was ebbing.

The team rallied behind its league-leading defense and strong ground game, churning out a 4-1 record in the last five games to squeak into the sixth seed by way of the NFL’s tie-breaking procedure.  With a Sunday night game against Cincinnati to close the season, they will have the clearest view of any of these teams about their standing before their game.

Baltimore’s ascent from playoff outlier to fifth seed is perhaps the least dramatic of the team’s involved.  After a 3-0 start dipped to 3-3 the team has been fairly consistent.  They have not lost back to back and have only won two in a row once (thanks in part to those games going against the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears). 

The Ravens have not quite made good on early and pre-season predictions, which placed had them nearing the NFL’s upper echelon.  Instead they have put themselves into that fifth seeding as one of the few consistent teams in the batch.  They have steadily maintained a .500 pace while the others have landed there with dramatic winning and losing periods during roller coaster seasons.

Each team has taken a different path.  Each has reason for encouragement and worry.  In a year where it was thought 10-6 would be a must, and 11-5 a possibility for a team to ensure itself a wild card.  No AFC wild card team will post better than 9-7.  This dramatic change from years past proves that in the much tighter AFC of 2009 that 9-7 has become the new 10-6 (or 11-5).

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Indianapolis Colts Answer Some Questions, Raise More in Loss to Jets

“Last night, while I lay thinking here, some Whatifs crawled inside my ear…”

–Shel Silverstein

One question for 2010 is finally answered. 

Will there be a 19-0 (or even simply 16-0) team? The answer came in back to back weeks with the Saints falling to the Cowboys (then shockingly to the Buccaneers in the next game) in Week 15, followed by a Colts loss to the New York Jets in Week 16.

It put a finality to questions over not only whether to rest starters, but how soon to shelve them and whether rest took priority over a chance at history. 

The decision was made during the third quarter with the Colts leading 15-10, that the time had come to rest Indianapolis’ starters. The question over whether to ‘go for it’ addressed, now the team faces a fresh array to answer.

Should the team take home anything but a Superbowl trophy, some blame will likely be affixed to the idea of ending the year with preventative measures. The deeper the team can go, the quieter those cries will be. But any loss will bring any array of criticism covering a plethora of angles. 

If they lose in either AFC matchup, that angle will look heavily towards questioning the method of trying to ‘turn it back on’ after so much down time.

A Superbowl win will erase all of that… for a week or two. The excitement of a win will ultimately override concerns over resting starters and taking that champagne glass from Mercury Morris’ hand. 

After that, however, they still have those whatifs that will bounce around. This was a team capable of winning the Superbowl, so what would have happened had they played their starters through to the end of the regular season? Was 19-0 thwarted by a management decision and not by the players on the field?

It doesn’t outweigh the elation of hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy, but it does give some pause. 

It is the technicality that will asterisk the win to a lot of fans. Not an asterisk to the win’s legitimacy, but rather the potential for history. What keeps athletes, teams, and fan bases fueled is that hunger for more. A Super Bowl is great, now go repeat. 18-1 is fantastic, but what about 19-0?

It would be easier to approach the decision without much question were there more history supporting the decision. 

The Colts are 7-8 in the playoffs during the Peyton Manning era. A key statistic in their Super Bowl winning, 2006 campaign: 4-0 in the playoffs.

That was one of the few years the team was unable to give time to backup Jim Sorgi because the Colts were fighting for position to the end. 

Despite a solid 12-4 record, Indianapolis could not secure a bye, and fought through the entire playoffs. The ultimate result was Peyton Manning’s lone NFL championship. 

More telling for the Colts; in years where Jim Sorgi has closed the regular season for Indianapolis, the Colts are 1-4 in the playoffs. The team’s historical tendency to rest starters when the final games were irrelevant to playoff positioning has not once paid dividends. 

In every one of those four losses, the Colts were the favored team, one or even two years can be considered isolated incidents. Four Years without deviation constitutes a trend.

Granted the Colts were in a situation where either choice would have been scrutinized ad infinitum . Had the Colts played their starters deeper into the game and one been injured, the choice would have been lambasted by all involved.  Even if the team had gone into the playoffs with no new injuries, a loss would be examined under a microscope.  

Without the stress of “perfection” would the team played a little less tight, forced things a less and won?  Was the team tired from the constant comebacks and tight play? Would the rest have done them well and gave them fresher legs for the playoffs?

When you play your starters in a situation where they could have been rested, anything but complete victory brings about a barrage of questions about the decision to play them. Should a team elect to rest its starters (as they did), then a whole new set of questions are raised.

The reality is that there is only one result that would have negated any chance for questioning the decision. 

Whether it be by leaving Manning in or by Curtis Painter maintaining the team’s lead, 19-0 is the only way the team avoids criticism. Should they take home the Superbowl, the worst of that criticism will be mitigated, but even then, the team will still always have to wonder “what if…”

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San Diego Chargers: Team Makes Statement in Potential Trap Game

While not a dangerous game as far as impact on the season, it was another great test of a game that the Chargers could easily have taken for granted. Tennessee was a 7-7 team desperate to preserve its playoff life. They were also a red-hot 7-1 following a disappointing 0-6 start, with the lone loss coming against the undefeated Colts.

The question was not if San Diego could beat the Titans; wins against several playoff-caliber teams across their now 10-game winning streak proved they can face off against anyone.  The question instead would be their motivation having guaranteed themselves the AFC West crown while holding a two-game lead for the second seed in the AFC with two games remaining.

Paired with the notion of San Diego possibly letting off the gas was a tough matchup in Tennessee. San Diego’s defense, especially the run defense, had been a concern all year.

With (by far) the NFL’s best rusher in Chris Johnson, the Titans also feature a great running quarterback in Vince Young (over two-hundred yards without playing until week seven). There was the threat of Tennessee running over the heart of the San Diego line and dictate the game.

The team answered those predicting a letdown early on in the game. Three minutes before halftime the Chargers held a 21-3 advantage. They had scored through the air (twice) and on the ground (a one-yard Tomlinson run).

Tennessee kept the game from becoming a halftime runaway with a Vince Young touchdown just before the half. The halftime score of 21-10 was the closest Tennessee ever came to coming back.

The Chargers started the second half just as effectively as they ended the first, putting another 21 on the board before Tennessee could manage a lone garbage-time answer.  The final score of 42-17 sent forth a statement to the rest of the AFC—San Diego is overlooking no one.

Philip Rivers had another near-perfect day going 21-for-27 with 264 yards and two touchdowns. The only thing preventing another three-hundred yard day was the team’s own tremendous lead, negating any need to throw the ball in the later stages of the game.

On the ground, San Diego running backs (the term used broadly to include fullbacks Hester and Tolbert) combined for 170 yards, led by Mike Tolbert’s 60 on eleven carries.  With limited carries (25) Tolbert is now averaging 5.9 yards per carry this year, by far tops among Chargers ballcarriers.

Tennessee was as effective as expected on the ground (182 yards for Johnson and Young) but Tennessee was reduced to being one-dimensional. Young’s legs fared well (forty yards on six carries including a touchdown), but his arm did nothing for the team, going 8-of-29 for 89 yards with two interceptions. It was easily his worst performance since returning to the starting lineup.

Of all San Diego’s positives, they still had one point of concern. In the last seven games they have only two sacks from powerhouse duo Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips.  They have been moderately effective getting sacks from alternative sources (safeties and middle linebackers), but after a brief midseason flurry have once again cooled on their overall pass-rushing effectiveness.

However, that one caveat does not detract from the team guaranteeing its best record in the Norv Turner era. At 12-3, the team secured a first-round bye with the second overall seed, and its accompanying home field advantage against every team but Indianapolis. 

The extra week off should help considerably with the overall health of the team. Shawne Merriman (plantar fasciitis), Eric Weddle (knee), Shaun Phillips (ankle), Legedu Naanee (foot), and Quentin Jammer (knee) all played but were nursing injuries. Jacques Cesaire and Kevin Burnett both missed the game against Tennessee.

Now that the regular season is effectively over, with that second seed wrapped up going into the finale against a deflated Washington Redskins team, San Diego will look to return to the championship game for the first time in fifteen years. Good luck and go Chargers!

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As the NFL Regular Season Winds Down, AFC Proves It Is Still On Top

Early into the 2009 season, it appeared that this would be the year that the NFC asserted its dominance.  Minnesota, New Orleans, New York (Giants), and Atlanta all looked to be forceful presences in the league.  Philadelphia looked to join those ranks as soon as McNabb returned to speed after missing weeks two and three to injury.

Somewhere along the way a switch triggered.  Once again the AFC proved the superior conference.  To this point in the year, the AFC has a 35-25 record (or .580) in games against NFC opponents.  A two or three game variation can be given to scheduling quirks; a ten game advantage is a trend. 

This continues the AFC’s advantage in such play, which stands at 55 percent across the last decade.  Beyond the regular season, the AFC has also taken seven Superbowls across the same nine-game span.  That 7:2 advantage is especially telling considering the NFC’s upset over New England when the Giants hoisted the Lombardi trophy; that moment in history comprises half of the NFC’s present successes.

While only separated by one game, the advantage for best overall record also goes to an AFC team, with Indianapolis remaining undefeated while the New Orleans Saints fell against Dallas.  When referencing teams not saddled with losing records, the AFC takes the advantage again (a significant 12 against eight). 

Stepping down to the bottom of the league also favors the AFC.  The NFC cellar-dwelling Rams, Buccaneers, Redskins, and Lions look almost universally inferior to their AFC counterparts (the Bills, Chiefs, Browns, and Texans).  The NFC’s bottom four sport a 9-47 record against the AFC’s 18-38, or double the wins. 

Even with the graph-skewing Texans and their division-worst 7-7 record taken away (while leaving the NFC’s “best of the worst” in the equation), it is a .160 to .250 difference in winning percentages—proof the AFC’s upper echelons have not gotten where they are purely by feasting on their divisional dregs.

The old-time mythos of the NFC has been its physicality.  The array of big, tough, cold weather teams sporting elite defenses out of the NFC has given way.  Presently, the only top five defense coming out of the NFC hails from Green Bay, surprising given the early appearance of the Giants and Vikings defenses.  Across the decade itself Baltimore and Pittsburgh have shaped the “tough physical defense” mold originally ascribed to their NFC counterparts.

Stepping away from the defensive front, the AFC has also proven itself ahead in multiple offensive arenas.  Adrian Peterson entered the year uncontested for the title of NFL’s best running back.  He presently sits at fifth among NFL running backs with 1,235 yards.  Of those ahead of him, three out of the four come out of the AFC (league leader Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, and Maurice Jones-Drew).  The only other NFC running back in the top five is Steven Jackson as the lone tool of the Rams.

Looking at quarterbacks, the same trend is present.  Four of the top six yardage totals hail from the AFC.  Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub lead the way at 1-2, while Tom Brady and Philip Rivers round out the AFC’s leaders.  Some excusing is given to one of the NFC’s elite in Donovan McNabb for missing two games to injury, but he would have needed 884 yards in those two games to supplant Rivers.

Another factor whilst looking at the elite quarterbacks of both conferences is age.  Favre, Rodgers, Warner, Brees, and McNabb comprise the five top quarterbacks in the NFC (allowances given to McNabb’s missed time).  Manning, Schaub, Brady, Rivers, and Roethlisberger the five best of the AFC.  The average age of the NFC’s top quarterback—33.5.  The average age amongst the AFC’s counterparts—29.5 .  That is four years of separation where careers can be expected to continue.

The two biggest names crossing from the AFC over to the NFC in the offseason were Jay Cutler and Albert Haynesworth.  The pair of big pro bowl names were supposed to lead their teams back into the playoffs following costly payouts (Haynesworth’s cap chewing contract and Cutler’s draft pick draining trade); instead, both teams have underwhelmed and sit a combined ten games below .500.

With several strong teams, an NFC contender may be able to give the conference just its third championship this decade, but looking across the entire league it has to be asserted that the AFC is still the superior Conference.

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Oakland Raiders’ Late-Season Success Yields More Questions Than Answers

It would have been easy had the Raiders closed the season as they had started it.  Take a 2-7 Raiders team, end with three or four wins and the real work could begin. 

A housecleaning that would see the team shopping for a coach, a quarterback, and possibly looking for another guy to earn the featured back role. 

Essentially, it would be a full purge and reset of an underachieving squad that has disappointed for seven years straight.

Instead, the team showed signs of life under Bruce Gradkowski.  The hard-working quarterback sparked wins over the Bengals and Steelers over a three-game span to bring the Raiders to life.

After he got hurt against Washington, two things became clear- the team’s second half winning ways were likely over, and JaMarcus Russell was irredeemable at quarterback.

Then the team went into Denver starting third stringer Charlie Frye at quarterback while Russell was sidelined by incompetence.

Frye put up a third-stringer’s stats (9-for-17, 68 yards and a pick), and then he was injured.  Russell entered the game and put up another sub-50 percent passing game (5-of-11), but he led the team to a game-winning touchdown.

It was obviously not enough to endear Russell to redemption yet, as Frye was announced as the starter for Cleveland barring health concerns.  Yet it would have been much simpler had he flubbed that drive.

His multiple chances would have been blown and the team could move on without him.  A starting gig is certainly not warranted, but you have to now consider one more year on the roster.

While Russell did both poor and well enough to throw out an array of questions, Bruce Gradkowski’s brief time as a starter incurred even more. 

The team can no longer rely on Russell evolving into a starting quarterback, though he may have done just enough to stay on the roster.  

With that said, how does the team go about in its pursuit of a future quarterback?

Gradkowski’s success has likely been enough to warrant at least an opportunity to compete for the 2010 starter’s role.  Does the team spend a high (first- or second-round) draft pick on a quarterback? 

Should they put money into an available veteran?  It will be difficult to truly ascribe one choice as the ideal, though another first-round quarterback is fairly unlikely given the open sore that is Jamarcus Russell’s drafting (both the size contract, the waste of such a high pick, and the forestalled progress of the team).

If the team places its faith in Gradkowski for 2010, does he have an entire season of magic in him, or was the three-game spurt a flash in the pan? 

Where to go with the third quarterback? Is Frye or JP Losman kept around as insurance, or is that job going to a Chad Henne-type second- or third-rounder to develop?  With four quarterbacks on the roster, this team has an infinite number of possibilities.

Questions reach beyond one position, however.  A 2-7 Raiders team can easily lay blame on the distractions following head coach Tom Cable and call for his ouster.

A 4-3 close to the year (assuming a split in the remaining games) muddies that notion as well.  If the Raiders end the year at 6-10, it will be their best record across their current seven-year sub-.500 skid.

The second-half result will be especially telling because three wins have come against legitimate teams (Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver), it was not an end-of-the-year Lions/Buccaneers/Rams-style schedule that resulted in their improved record. 

Cable is not built to handle coaching and coordinating duties.  He may have peaked in his potential with the team’s current level of improvement. 

If he can take at least one more win away, though, he has most likely assured himself of the 2010 position to start the year.  He may have done enough with that Denver win to be retained without another win.

From leading the huddle to leading the team, we now look to who is leading the backfield.  With poor quarterback play and multiple deficits, the running game has been up and down all season.  

Whether they look to alter personnel at the running back position is as big a question as whether they should alter the rotation just among current running backs.

Michael Bush had been slipping off the radar with a mere eight carries over a four-game span.  He came alive against Denver to reach 133 yards on a mere 18 carries (7.4 yards per carry).

Can he be the player who has over 250 yards in two games (the other a 119-yard, 8.5-YPC effort), or is he the back who in a seven week span never reached four yards a carry or 40 yards?

Darren McFadden finally showed life after a disappointing second season that had seen his rushing average drop by over a yard a carry from his rookie year (his 74-yard 6.2 YPC performance managed to raise his season average to 3.5 yards per carry, or only .9 below last year’s 4.4). Like Russell, he was an expensive and disappointing high draft pick.

As the smallest, fastest running back on Oakland’s roster, it would possible to develop him into a Reggie Bush-esque Swiss army knife player. 

This seems more likely than his evolving into a true feature back.  What brings this into question would be his limited receiving stats (17 receptions across 10 games) and the price tag relative to his role (an issue the Saints can speak to with Bush).  He has the potential for value, but is that value worth the overall price tag?

Justin Fargas is another wild card in this debate.  He is technically the first running back on the team’s depth chart.  He is a hard-nosed, hard working guy who fights for every yard. 

What he lacks are the physical attributes to earn big yards.  Just over six-feet and weighing in at 220, he is not big enough to run over opponents, nor fast enough to break big open field runs.

He has earned a place on the team through hard work and dedication, but is not the guy you want as your sixteen game starter.  Playing in twelve of the team’s games this season, he has yet to eclipse 500 yards rushing total, and is no particular threat catching the ball out of the backfield.

Just like head coach and Quarterback, the teams has to question where to go at running back.  When Bush has played well, he has shown the greatest potential as the only back with a 100 (or even ninety) yard game.  His big frame should make him durable and low price tag make him appealing.  Yet he has failed to secure the lead back role this year, when the spot was up for grabs.

Fargas is a hard working, blue-collar type of player, but has essentially shown his peak.  He is a respectable committee back but has the most mileage (almost twice as many seasons as Bush and McFadden combined), a solid price tag (foxsports.com has him listed for a $6.1 million salary) and not much potential for growth.  If the team elects to try and find a more concrete number one, could he be vulnerable?  With his hard-nosed style, could he be asked to put on a little more bulk and try and be developed into a lead blocker who can take some carries?  Where does he fit in the team’s overall scheme?

Do they retain all three?  If they cut one who goes?  Is McFadden worth the price tag to be a change of pace back?  Can he evolve into more?  Should the team look at drafting a mid-round back to compete with these guys, possibly holding four backs on the roster? The running back position has grounds for optimism, but many question marks.

The same analytical good and bad can go towards nearly all positions.  Across the receiving position the stat lines for the year are 26 catches (Louis Murphy), 17 catches (Chaz Schilens), 14 catches (Johnny Lee Higgins, and 9 catches (Darrius Heyward Bey).  Those 66 catches by four receivers fall below most team’s number one guy.

 Do you put faith that more than half a season by Schilens and the development of rookies is enough?  Do you risk going for your next guy in the draft, or try to sign someone who has caught the ball more times in year than anyone current wideout has in their career (for those of you playing the home game that number is only 43 at present).

Personnel decisions are always up in the air with an Al Davis offseason, but the success in this year’s second half increases those questions tenfold.  The key to 2010 will be deciding which areas of improvement to count on continuing into the next season while identifying weaker areas that should be addressed in spite of what a few games say.  Not every player can be counted on to maintain or improve, but not all players will decline either.  Figuring out who will fall into what category will be the headache-inducing job for this offseason made tougher by so many players suddenly making cases for the former.

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San Diego Chargers Boltbits: Why I Hate Norv Turner

 

The head coach of the San Diego Chargers, Norv Turner, has had a peculiar career with the team.  He has led San Diego to three playoff victories in two years while overcoming inopportune injuries to core players (Philip Rivers, Ladainian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates have all both missed games and played hobbled across the last two postseasons).  As a Charger he has never lost in December.

Yet he has also helmed a team that has repeatedly underwhelmed in the face of high expectations to start each year.  The 2008 Chargers won the AFC West despite a 4-8 start and 8-8 record thanks to a monumental collapse by the Denver Broncos to close the year.  The team has favored for deep playoff runs every year since before he took over, yet has never been to a super bowl.

Taking the team to a 2-3 start this year coupled with another hot start by the Denver Broncos, calls for Turner’s head reached crescendo level.  With a milquetoast personality that makes him easy to attack, and the circumstances surrounding his arrival Turner, has had a hard time winning fans over in Chargertown.

On the heels of losing their first playoff game in the second round, Marty Schottenheimer’s 14-2 San Diego Chargers were looking to rebound from yet another disappointing playoffs.  The team had been putting up consistently good regular seasons for three years, but had failed to translate it into any playoff results.

It briefly appeared San Diego would retain Schottenheimer for one more year, but following both coordinators leaving for head coaching jobs(Cam Cameron for a disastrous year with Miami, Wade Phillips for an ongoing roller coaster with Dallas) Schottenheimer was sent packing by general manager AJ Smith with whom the relationship had always been testy.

The move was not extremely popular.  Had he been let go immediately following the playoffs, the sting of that upset would have been fresh enough for fans to be more accepting.  Instead time enough had been given not to heal the wound, but at least for it to become bandaged.  The offseason head coaching spree had already seen the bulk of top candidates finding their homes and pickings seemed modest.

Instead of pursuing a hot up and comer, AJ Smith signed coaching veteran Norv Turner.  Turner was a highly successful offensive coordinator who had yet to have success at the top level in stints with Oakland and (Washington?).  The signing of Turner was immediately pounced upon.  His past resume at the head coaching level was not compelling and the man he was replacing was still fairly popular both among fans and within the Chargers organization.

He took a 14-2 Chargers team to an 11-5 record, but managed something in his first playoff game that Schottenheimer had been unable to, a postseason victory.  The Chargers were eliminated by the eventual AFC Superbowl representative in both of Norv Turner’s postseasons, first to the New England Patriots and then to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The result was given mixed reviews, especially 2008’s loss in which the team showed a vulnerability to physical teams, being out-muscled by Pittsburgh to end its mediocre year.

With the team seeming to have peaked or started a downturn, it was easy to want to lump blame onto Turner.  He was not a particularly popular pick to begin with, had posted a consistent decline in the team’s win-loss column, and gone 10-11 during the 2008 to early 2009 seasons.  A website dedicated to firing Turner cropped up and “Norv-hate” was at an all time high.

What was not considered was a team adjusting to major injuries (an out one year ineffective the next Shawne Merriman, no Jamal Williams in 2009, no Nick Hardwick for 17 of the last 24 games, etc.) and finding its own way.  Support from Chargers management was written away as AJ Smith enjoying his opportunity to be the dominant personality.

After all of this something happened.  The team discovered its identity, finally finding the balance between supporting a high-powered air assault with a solid-enough ground attack, using hard hitting safeties to harass opposing quarterbacks in lieu of a strong front seven pass rush, and through it all putting up twenty plus points every night.

The 11-3 Chargers now look their most dangerous since that 14-2 year.  The difference however, is that the team is also more grounded.  They have a history to turn to whenever the playoffs are discussed, a history that gives the team a chip on its shoulder instead of an overconfident swagger. 

They may have ascended to third in the bulk of NFL power rankings (such as foxsports.com, espn.com), but play and perform as if they were a plucky fourth seed looking to topple the other giants of the league.  That blend, as well as the array of developed weapons (in years past a stalled Tomlinson meant a catatonic offense), makes this a strong, solid team looking forward to a great postseason run.

With all this, why do I hate Norv Turner?  Because he is doing a great job of proving people wrong.  Disliking his first hire, questioning his remaining with the team after 2008 and early into 2009, he is on pace to translate this year into one of the team’s best regular seasons. 

No matter what has been thrown at him, he has adapted.  He has lead the team past debilitating injuries, the fall from prominence of the team’s hall of fame offensive leader, and a front seven unable to consistently put up the numbers expected of it.  Norv has managed to do something in this streak that he had been unable to through his first two years and five games as a head coach.  He has earned my trust in his stewardship over the team. 

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Think You Know This Year’s NFL Playoffs? Think Again

The NFL regular season has two weeks remaining, but as it turns out, we know far less about what will happen than we did when there were three weeks left.  Before week 15, the NFL’s focus was on three elite teams seeming head and shoulders above the rest.

New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Minnesota were a combined 37-2 and looking nearly indestructible.  Cincinnati was looking to earn the second seed in the AFC and its associated first round bye.  Dallas was a December joke who was growing worried about just making the playoffs.  The Packers were a monster on a roll with five consecutive wins.  Denver was a wild card lock and Miami and New York were looking to upend New England in the AFC East.

An array of odds-bucking results have now given a shake to the playoff outlook with a mere two games left to play.  Who is favored?  What will the playoff seeding be?  Who hold the wild card berths?  With a few exceptions (primarily the last wild card slots) most of these results seemed settled.  Now all that may just need to be rethought.

Minnesota had appeared an uncontested lock for the NFC’s second seed.  Aside from a single game speed bump against a wildly inconsistent Cardinals team, the Vikings were looking every bit the force that either undefeated team was.  They have now dropped two out of three games recently and the first bits of tension have surfaced.

Brett Favre refused to be pulled when Brad Childress tried to yank the forty-year old quarterback with Carolina wreaking havoc in the Vikings’ backfield and following a Packer defeat that secured the division for Minnesota.   Favre has not had nearly the downturn of his injury-hampered 2008 season, but appears human now after posting insane numbers across the first eleven games. 

More concerning than Favre’s humanity is that of Adrian Peterson.  Considered an early possibility for MVP, Peterson has only a single hundred-yard game in his last eight.  Over the last three games, he has 151 yards on 51 carries for 2.96 yards per carry.  The Vikings are picking a bad time to appear fallible and no longer are a guaranteed pick for the NFC Championship.  With a single game lead over Philadelphia, they are no longer a lock for even that first round bye.

New Orleans, the other piece of the NFC’s championship picks, is also coming back in line with the rest of the league.  They had appeared primed for an upset for several weeks, needing overtime to defeat Washington and taking an injury-depleted Falcons team by only three points.  Regardless of cracks in the armor, the team was still undefeated.  They had proven they could emerge victorious even without playing at their peak.

Dallas changed that while reversing many notions about their own team in the same breath.  The Cowboys were reeling after back to back losses that resulted in Philadelphia overtaking them for the NFC East division lead.  Talk of the Cowboys’ annual late-season decline was at full volume with a difficult remaining schedule and the possibility of dropping out of even a wild card.

Instead, the Cowboys showed life by mounting an early lead (something others had done against New Orleans) and hanging on long enough to win (something no one else had been able to accomplish) 24-17. 

One win does not negate the fact that Dallas is still a game behind Philadelphia with precious few opportunities left to catch them.  It also does not spell doom for a Saints team that is going to take home field advantage through the entire playoffs.  But it may just be the spark Dallas needs to shake the playoff structure, even as a wild card.

In the AFC, Indianapolis still looks beatable while stubbornly refusing to actually lose.  They are 14-0 but have had to overcome fourth quarter deficits in seven of those 14 games.  They have not dominated any team (winning by two touchdowns or more) since a week seven match-up against the cellar-dwelling St. Louis Rams.

Just behind Indianapolis, the San Diego Chargers are now looking to enter into the top three or four teams in the league.  They hold the same record as Minnesota (11-3) but are riding nine consecutive wins en route to that record.  In those games they have defeated all three playoff contenders from the NFC East (including last week’s victory over the New Orleans topping Dallas Cowboys), pounded Denver (32-3) to overtake them for the AFC West division lead, and now succeeded in defeating an emotionally charged Bengals team in a match for the second seed.

San Diego is not as well-rounded on paper as Minnesota, with a weaker pass rush and running game, but they are playing better as a collective unit and continuing to win.  If they have not edged ahead of the Vikings, they must at least now be considered on par.

Cincinnati meanwhile has dropped three of the past five games and are having difficulty establishing consistency on offense.  Carson Palmer followed up a poor game against Minnesota (94 total yards passing) with a solid one against San Diego (314 yards passing with two touchdowns and an interception).  Unfortunately, Palmer’s only 300 yard game this season was paired with a mediocre performance by workhorse Cedric Benson (53 yards at 3.5 per carry).

Cincinnati now holds the same record as New England (9-5) and faces a Jets team in week 17 that may be fighting for its playoff life in that game.  Because of tie-breaking procedure (strength of victory) the Patriots hold the third overall seed now and will do so if both teams win out.  The Bengals team that had looked to be making its way into that elite discussion alongside the “big three” has now become the last divisional seed in the AFC.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are still a question mark.  They have risen to the third seed due more to Cincinnati’s failings than their own success.  They are 2-2 in the last four games, with their two victories coming against Buffalo and Carolina (and their combined 11-17 record) by an average of eight points.

New England has a history of postseason-proven clutch quarterback in Tom Brady.  They also have the worst defense they have fielded in the Tom Brady era and concerns over a less harmonious locker room.  They face a Jaguars team still fighting for the playoffs next week, followed by a disappointing but still tough Houston Texans team.  Should they drop either, the Patriots could easily slip back into the fourth seed.

So what does this mean for the playoffs?  Of the top six teams (as per foxsports.com’s power rankings), only two came away with victories in week fifteen.  Indianapolis changed nothing in overtaking Jacksonville in the fourth quarter, but Minnesota and New Orleans both took uncharacteristic turns.  San Diego now emerges from dark horse to genuine contender while Cincinnati and Green Bay lost momentum.  Wild card candidates Dallas and Baltimore appear as potentially dangerous as any divisional seed, while Denver and Jacksonville may both miss the playoffs. 

Just as the NFL postseason picture appeared to be settling, this weekend’s games prove why this football has overtaken baseball as America’s sport.  Nothing is ever certain, and any team can beat any other on any given Sunday (or Thursday, Saturday, or Monday).  The regular season is over in two weeks and the playoffs are just around the corner, yet we know less now than ever before.  That competition will make this postseason a great watch.

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San Diego Chargers’ Dramatic Win Has Team Looking Scary for the Playoffs

What a week. Charlie Frye’s Oakland defeated the Denver Broncos, Carolina stunned Minnesota, Pittsburgh ended its second half skid against Green Bay, and New Orleans lost to the Dallas in December. 

A few things did run true to form, however. Indianapolis pulled out a victory with a fourth quarter comeback and San Diego secured the AFC West with Sunday’s victory over an emotionally charged Cincinnati Bengals team.

San Diego’s win was fueled by a 46 yard, 51 second drive that resulted in a Nate Kaeding field goal to come away with a 27-24 victory.

With Minnesota looking a bit shaky lately and New Orleans proven fallible, San Diego’s win has them appearing more impressive. 

The win added to a now nine game winning streak that has included victories over Denver, Dallas, New York (Giants), Philadelphia, and now Cincinnati. 

This was not a Chargers team feasting on a marshmallow schedule. 

The wins have provided a great record (11-3, now tied for third in the NFL) and playoff credibility (defeating AFC playoff teams Denver and Cincinnati, NFC playoff teams in Dallas and Philadelphia, and toppling New York and Denver on the road).    

Another piece of playoff encouragement coming away from this game—running the football. 

On both sides of the running game, San Diego has been its most vulnerable, giving up a string of 100 yard games to opposing offenses while averaging just over three yards a carry themselves.

Against Cincinnati, a power running team with a tremendous defense, San Diego fared much better. 

The Cedric Benson/Larry Johnson tandem combined for only 88 yards. With the safety and middle linebacking units finally healthy, the team was able to slow down Cincinnati’s ground game.

On the offensive side of the football, Ladainian Tomlinson rushed for 59 yards on 16 carries. 

That stat line won’t get fantasy owners anywhere, but it marks the first time in four games Tomlinson has gone above 3.2 yards-per-carry (at 3.7). 

With the array of weapons in the passing game that should be all that is required of the running game on any given night. If the team can average at least 3.5 yards per carry, they are well situated for the postseason.

Up until this game, the primary question surrounding San Diego was its positioning going into the postseason. 

Can they secure the division (a question prolonged by a brief two game resurgence by Denver)? 

Once Indianapolis sealed the AFC West crown by staving off Denver in Week 14, the question became the first round bye. 

Could San Diego secure a second seed?

With a two game lead over Cincinnati and New England and two games left, that question is answered. 

San Diego’s matchup with Cincinnati gave them the tie-breaker over the Bengals; leaving only a San Diego win or tie, or a New England loss or tie to officially seal that second seed.

This team has spent the second half of the year as the plucky underdog no team really wants to play late in the season. 

At 11-3, it has now shaken the image the 2-3 start gave them to rise to legitimate candidate status. 

No team is truly dominant this year (seven teams have taken leads into the fourth against Indianapolis, the Saints have looked fallible for weeks, and Minnesota has now dropped two of their last three) and San Diego is peaking at the perfect time. 

If they can carry this momentum into the playoffs, a head-to-head fight with Indianapolis for the right to play for the Vince Lombardi trophy is quite likely.

The Chargers in the post and regular seasons have historically fared well against the Colts during the Peyton Manning era. They have had five interceptions in a game and playoff wins with key starters shelved due to injury.

Las Vegas still puts the odds on Indianapolis and New Orleans to meet in the Super Bowl, but right now San Diego has to be putting fear in the hearts of the oddsmakers and opponents for their feisty play and capacity to overcome countless injuries to keep winning. 

With several playoff-bound teams having concerns in the second half (Cincinnati has gone 2-3 in its last five games, New England lost two in a row and has followed by close wins against sub .500 teams), this very well may be the ideal time for San Diego to make a push for its second appearance in the championship game.

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NFL Has No Goliaths This Year, Regardless of Teams’ Records

Every league strives for that magical term “parity.” This does not mean .500 teams across the league, but rather a degree of competitiveness that allows sportswriter and sports fan alike to keep bouncing infinite hypotheticals around to determine who will ultimately take home a championship.

In the face of a historic 46-2 possible record among the NFL’s three powerhouses (including a pair of undefeated teams), that parity looks to be quite intact.  Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Minnesota have all had dominant games, but there have been plenty of games where they have looked beatable.

When New England steamrolled the regular season in 2007, they appeared unstoppable.  That season likely cemented New England’s image afterwards as the NFL’s variation of an evil empire. 31 teams’ worth of fans cheered when New England stumbled primarily because the Patriots looked like they never could.

New Orleans and Indianapolis are different. Minnesota, with two losses already, leaves that avenue of the debate by default. These teams all appear fallible.

Indianapolis has managed to survive, despite an array of injuries, especially within their secondary.

The Colts have also put together seven fourth-quarter comebacks this year. That consequently means they could as easily be 9-4 this year as undefeated, giving the Colts almost an underdog feel while they have yet to lose.

New Orleans has not had quite the number of comebacks, but also has appeared quite fallible. Experts have touted the Saints as “ripe for an upset” ever since a second-half comeback in Week Seven against the Dolphins.

Every game since has been kept close barring two: A Tampa Bay team that must almost be discounted from the discussion, and a New England Patriots team that finally slipped to second-tier status.

The defense has posted great turnover and touchdown numbers, but has been exposed at times. Drew Brees is posting another MVP-caliber year, but will not be making a run at record books like in 2008 (or Brady in 2007). The Saints team looks ultimately more complete then Indianapolis, and is the present Super Bowl favorite.

Prior to matching up against Arizona two weeks ago, Minnesota had the closest appearance to a juggernaut of the three. Brett Favre was garnering MVP discussion alongside Brees and Manning, while the Vikings boasted one of the best running backs in football in Adrian Peterson and a frightening defensive line fueled by the Williams wall and Jared Allen.

The Vikings had already lost once, but that minor blemish was long forgotten and 15-1 seemed inevitable, before a headache-inducing loss (for the opponents as well as experts trying to pick games) to a surging Cardinals team, 30-17.

The reality that Favre and Peterson were human set in quickly following 19 yards rushing (Peterson) and three interceptions (Favre).

Each of these teams has something to play for. New Orleans has never seen a Super Bowl. Minnesota hasn’t played in one since 1977.

The Colts have the luxury of a victorious end to their 2006 season but are not the playoff dynasty of the Steelers or Patriots (five of the last eight Super Bowls between them) having had just as many early exits as deep runs in going 7-8 in the playoffs during the Peyton Manning era.

When the New England Patriots were at their prime, they seemed to rise above history.  One may contend the team flew too high, that David Tyree’s miracle catch was a wing-melting by-product of that ascent. Unlike that 16-0 New England team, these three have already proven that they are simply winning, not soaring above the league.

Will this translate into a trophy for one of these three teams? Has the regular season kept them humbled, while success has kept them hungry? These questions are a tremendous boon for the league in its entirety.

Great storylines abound, and not only could any one of these three teams win, but it would not be that surprising for virtually any division winner to push to the Super Bowl this year.

These teams have separated themselves, but parity is alive and well in the league. A 4-9 Redskins team can be embarrassed by Detroit, then go on to take New Orleans to overtime. Seven teams have been able to defeat Indianapolis across three quarters.  Two teams have managed wins against Minnesota. 

No matter how the playoffs transpire, each and every game should be interesting, and this year no team will project the image of a team-devouring monster; there will be no Goliaths to be downed by this year’s David (Tyree).

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