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Biggest Game of the Year Mk 2 San Diego Chargers Face Cincinnati Bengals
Published: December 17, 2009
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San Diego is going to face an emotional Cincinnati Bengals team (coming off the shocking death of injured wideout Chris Henry) in what is likely to be a direct battle for the second seed in the AFC. This carries with it a first-round bye and home-field against all teams but Indianapolis—who is immovably entrenched as the first seed.
I cannot give this a blanket “biggest game” status thanks to the big victory over Denver in Week 11. That game was to overtake the Broncos and assume the lead in the AFC West, thus giving it number one status until the playoffs begin. The Chargers are essentially assured the division and thus playoffs with a two game lead over Denver now, thus the seeding-only implications.
That caveat cannot downplay the value of this game. San Diego has spent the last several years overcoming late starts to claw into the playoffs.
This has led to a scrappy—but beat up and tired—team entering in the playoffs with their tanks a little low. They have managed early playoff victories, but come up short in mid-round games on the road.
To earn the second seed San Diego would give themselves a week more (and a game less) time to recuperate. It seems faulty logic to excessively rest starters Indianapolis-style and risk an alteration in momentum.
The single week off of earning a bye should not be enough to cause that concern, especially when the team will probably fighting all through Week 17 to ensure that seed.
The results of this game could be what separates the Chargers from being true contenders or threatening up-and-comers. The Chargers have legitimized their win streak by defeating genuine teams in New York, Philadelphia, Denver, and Dallas. The one missing ingredient is a win over a non-divisional conference team.
Losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh should not be a reason for concern as it was very much a different time and place, but this deep into the season every game has impact. A victory over another division winner will solidify the Chargers’ earning of that second seed and add even more confidence going into the playoffs.
So how do they succeed? What is the recipe for taking down Cincinnati? That is the key. The Bengals strengths tend to be a very direct counterpoint to San Diego’s own.
San Diego owns the 21st rated running defense, and that number would likely be lower if they had not held as many leads as they had. Cincinnati is a tough, run-centric offense that will test the Charger’s round-robin middle.
Finally having the linebacking corps at full health will help after spending the last several games with at least one of the core seven linebackers dinged up and missing time each game. Paired with it is the expected return of safety Eric Weddle, after Wednesday’s full practice.
San Diego’s pass defense will have a much easier time. Carson Palmer has gone five consecutive games with a quarterback rating of 81 or worse, never getting above 220 yards during this streak.
The former aerial assault-based Bengals now posses the 23rd ranked passing offense, easily the worst among division leaders (the Minnesota Vikings all the way at 11th are the second lowest).
These absolute opposites in strengths and weaknesses give two schools of thought. The team can either focus on shutting down the passing game and forcing the Bengals to an offense predicated on rushing alone. This singular dimension can take away options and lead to success.
The second would be to try and increase focus on the rushing defense. Bring safeties up and force the Bengals to win through the air. It is somewhat dangerous because Palmer, despite a down year, is a time-proven veteran and has the capability. If the team can effectively minimize the running game, the Bengals will be put in a position they do not envy.
Cincinnati lacks the depth to spread the field in the passing game, and one safety brought up with the second providing help against Chad Johnson should be enough to effectively neutralize the Bengals on early downs, allowing the Chargers to force Cincinnati into obvious passing situations that should enable aggressive blitzing
Since the Bengals are not built to go into the shotgun with four or five wide receivers on the field, linebackers can be thrown at Carson Palmer in the obvious passing situations an increased vigilance on run defense should be able to produce. The capacity to rotate English into the outside (as well as having four starting-quality middle linebackers) will be vital as the high-attacking style has the potential to tire a defense.
Looking to the offense, San Diego faces the fifth overall defense in the NFL.
A lukewarm running game will not be aided by the third best rushing defense in football.
The passing game (the strength of San Diego) could fare better, facing the 12th rating pass defense in football. Like San Diego, Cincinnati’s success has translated into leads that have forced teams into passing more often, which makes that rating deceptive.
The best chance for San Diego’s offense will be to attack a banged up safety position for Cincinnati. Their corners are effective, which could reduce Jackson and Floyd’s output, but another big game for Gates could be in the works.
Attacking the deep middle of the field with Gates while taking receivers deep should be enough to free up space and chip away at Cincinnati. The physical defense will still clog running lanes, but it should force them to spread enough that a rushing attack can be maintained in a modest sense. Taking Sproles outside and giving 243 pound Mike Tolbert a few carries could help their cause here.
Cincinnati’s tough defense has allowed 89 points the last four games, or a 22.25 point per game average after allowing 16.3 across the first nine. That jump of nearly a touchdown tells to the injuries that makes Cincinnati vulnerable.
Playing in San Diego, while looking to exploit those advantages, should be enough to turn the game in the Chargers favor. That success, translated into a win, should assure the second seed and great reason for optimism going into the playoffs.
Good luck and go Chargers!
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NFL Dark Horses Ending the Year in the Stable
Published: December 16, 2009
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Everyone loves the idea of a “dark horse” pick. Many teams get that label despite the attention they get ultimately flying in the face of the true definition (i.e. little-known).
Most of those teams, picked to make great steps in the preseason or early in the year, have now found themselves facing the very real possibility of a missing the playoffs entirely after being picked to possibly make some noise.
Houston is the poster child for this effect. Chosen as the dark horse pick in the preseason by the bulk of so-called experts, the team is now below .500 and fighting just to match its prior year’s 8-8 record. With a high-powered offense that seemed to have all the pieces in place, it was assumed that Matt Schaub’s health was the only stumbling block.
A full year (to this point) of Schaub has made little difference to a team trapped in the toughest (by overall win-loss record among all teams) division in the NFL. They have dropped five out of six inside their own division to stumble into their division’s basement at 6-7.
Ironically, even the 0-6 starting Titans are technically above the Texans at 6-7 but holding a better division record at a scant 2-4. This team has teetered on the edge of success all year, losing six of their seven games by one touchdown or less, including several late leads that fell apart.
The Texans have had the statistical success expected of them (fourth overall in passing, eighth in total yards, while posting a respectable 13th in overall yards allowed), but a stalled running game and second half letdowns have prevented those stats from translating into success.
Atlanta was also another preseason darling. They had already made the playoffs last year, but with another year of experience for rookie phenom Matt Ryan and the addition of hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, the team was expected to make the jump from relevance to a true playoff threat.
The team is instead at 6-7 (though with some slim chance still present with fewer over .500 teams in the NFC). Ryan playing his age and has been hampered by injuries. Injuries have also dogged Michael Turner, which has greatly hurt a team that was looking to boast one of the NFL’s more prolific offenses this year. Instead of the top five projection, the team is presently 16th in total yards of offense.
Were it not for the fortunate scheduling of Washington and Tampa bay during the second half of the year, Atlanta might very well have been staring down an eight game losing streak (as it stands, those wins against one and four win teams leaves them at 2-6 over the last eight).
One final preseason darling, Chicago, has disappointed to a far greater tune. The hype surrounding the arrival of franchise quarterback Jay Cutler led to some preseason speculation of a potential return to the Super Bowl.
Brian Urlacher was purported to be in his best shape in years, Cutler would provide the arm to transform the unspectacular receiving corps into a powerhouse offense.
A fast 3-1 start (after a game one speed bump) despite an opening day injury to Urlacher (for the year) did nothing to quash the speculation that they were Minnesota’s greatest inter-divisional challenger.
Matt Forte’s failure to make good on a solid ’08 along with an ever growing interception total by Cutler finally started to catch up to the team at that point. Chicago has since gone 2-7 with its only wins coming against the St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns, who have a combined a total of just three wins.
Cutler’s knack for forcing plays, paired with no running game (32nd in the league), has proven to fans that one man alone cannot make a team. With little offensive talent around him, Cutler has gone from a pro-bowl quarterback to a hurried trigger-happy mess that has fans eyeballing the success of recently departed Kyle Orton in likely playoff-bound Denver with troubled hearts.
What do these three preseason hot-picks have in common? Beyond disappointing with sub .500 records to this point, they all also started the year with encouraging signs to their preseason hype.
At the one-quarter mark of the year, these teams had posted a combined 8-4 record. Since that point the trio has gone 9-18 (or a paltry .333 winning percentage).
The other commonality is preseason hype based upon the idea of a high-powered offense. Chicago was supposed to be the most balanced, but the Bears’ hype was the Forte/Cutler duo, while Houston’s Slaton/Schaub/Johnson combination and Atlanta’s Turner/Ryan/White/Gonzo groupings were looked at to push each team up several slots in the standings.
To further counterpoint this is the biggest example of a team with a modest 2008 with a lot of preseason hype that has made good, that of course being the New Orleans Saints. Of the teams looking to step from good (or even just decent) to great, this was the one team whose preseason hype was surrounding changes made on defense.
Cincinnati, likely the biggest surprise among playoff teams, also went the route of swapping high-flying offense for a physical, well-balanced offense and tough defense. The “new” Bengals retooled their team in the opposite manner of Atlanta, Chicago, and Houston. The results speak for themselves.
What you can take away from this is that teams often suffer when putting a lot of faith in question marks. Be it one guy who had a great year, a la Ryan/Forte/Slaton or optimism over a big pickup in the vein of Gonzalez or Cutler, faith is hard earned by sexy “take the next step” picks.
Along with those teams that have failed to step up, some have also taken a step back. Read their story here:
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The Most Frustrating Teams in the NFL in 2009
Published: December 16, 2009
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Whether it be consistent failure, not reaching expectations, or horrible inconsistency, many teams give their fans plenty of reason for aspirin and antacids. These teams all share a common thread, causing night sweats and hang-wringing amongst their fans across the 2009 NFL season. Here they are, the most frustrating teams of 2009:
Sorting a Crowded Backfield: What the Chargers Should Do at RB in 2010
Published: December 14, 2009
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San Diego has quite a few players seeing time standing behind Philip Rivers. If you include the pair of converted fullbacks, San Diego presently carries five running backs on their roster. The most notable, Ladainian Tomlinson, has a questionable future with the team due to diminishing returns. Darren Sproles, the primary backup to Tomlinson, has proven effective catching the ball out of the backfield and in the return game but has not put up consistent yardage when running the football.
These two, as the primary rushers for San Diego, have combined for 887 yards to this point. Beyond the limited yardage they have averaged 3.2 (Tomlinson) and 3.3 (Sproles) yards per carry across the entire year.
The third running back on the depth chart, Michael Bennet, has 12 carries across the entire year for a mere 37 yards. It is apparent he is not in the team’s backfield plans, having spent more games inactive then active.
Taking the team’s backfield roster to five are a pair of converted runners come road-pavers in Jacob Hester and Mike Tolbert. Both have traded time as the primary fullback, but neither has overwhelmed at the position. They are natural running backs, Tolbert in the large bowling ball mold of Michael Turner. Tolbert is sufficiently reminiscent not only in style, but in being virtually the same size at five-nine and two hundred forty-three pounds (a mere pound lighter and inch shorter then Turner).
Hester, who is technically the starting fullback over Tolbert, is somewhat smaller, posting a near identical size to Ladainian Tomlinson (an inch taller and four pounds heavier then LT). He is also posting nearly four times the salary of Tolbert (1.1 million dollars as compared with 300,000).
Tolbert and Hester shared one game where they both carried the ball seven times. In that game (albeit largely considered “garbage time” carries) the pair put up 104 yards on those fourteen carries, with Tolbert the leader of the two gaining 58 yards. Tolbert followed that game with 19 yards on four carries the following week, the only other time one of the pair saw more than three carries in a game.
With the roster accounted for, where does this leave the team? It is not particularly safe to rely on Tomlinson to be taking over two-hundred snaps next year. The fullback position is decent in its versatility, but subpar with regards to lead blocking. Sproles is going to be entering back into contract negotiations after spending the year as the team’s franchise player.
The team needs to modify the current lineup in the offseason. They have many ways they can do this, and all would be preferable to the present situation. All have benefits and drawbacks, and this team will need to weigh the options carefully before jumping to one set path.
The first would likely be considered the simplest. Let Tomlinson go, draft a high ranking running back, and try to rebuild the team’s backfield with youth. This would likely save the team money, as the highest one may expect the Chargers to draft at this juncture would be roughly 25th. Unless Tomlinson negotiates a drastic salary cut, that pick would likely make roughly half of Tomlinson’s salary.
This move bears with it several issues, however, the first being the public relations slant. Tomlinson is a first-ballot hall of famer who just passed Jim Brown on the all-time rushing list. He is not a 1,400+ yard threat any more, but is still considered effective enough such that a fan base would be very critical of a team willing to let Tomlinson go.
Falling among that public relation concern would also be the idea of a minor renaissance with a team better suited to the running game (see Larry Johnson’s first game in orange and black). Should he put up over 3.5 yards per carry across a full year on another team, San Diegans will call for AJ Smith’s head.
The final concern is the giant question mark of drafting a first round running back to be your primary. Moreno and Wells have put up respectable stats for Denver and Arizona respectively (better than four yards per carry for both), but as pieces of a running back tandem, not as primary runners.
This leads to the potential second option—retaining LT (likely negotiating a pay cut beyond the small one agreed upon last offseason) and putting a first day draft pick alongside him in a running back committee. The pitfalls of a rookie feeling the pressure of taking 80 percent of a team’s handoffs can be avoided and Tomlinson can provide an example for the young developing player.
This strategy seems great on paper. Where in runs into the biggest problems would be financially. Tomlinson’s contract can only be negotiated so low. Sproles will need a new contract (as will other current Chargers), and a first-day running back will not be terribly cheap. This team would have a large sum dedicated to the backfield once more.
What it also does is remove the capacity to use that pick somewhere else (ideally depth along either line or cornerback). The team has no glaring holes with a healthy Jamal Williams and Nick Hardwick, but is thin at many reserve spots, and with the age of Williams another young nose tackle would be especially high on the team’s wish-list.
To save money, the team should attempt to work on the problem in-house. Hester and Tolbert showed well in the modest looks given to them, and both are far better suited to run behind this offensive line than Darren Sproles, who has been thwarted by a lack of space much of the year.
They can continue the shared fullback role while also taking some of the rushing load each game or the team can elect to commit one to a primary focus at the fullback position while allowing the other to return to the halfback position either is more comfortable in.
Tolbert would be the more likely then to slip back into the halfback role behind Tomlinson. He is a more drastic change of pace with his size, and has better hands then Hester (with twelve receptions on the year for nearly two-hundred yards). His size and shorter stature would also make him ideally suited for short-yardage duty, his low center of gravity and 243 pounds making him very difficult to drive backward.
Committing to additional carries to Hester and Tolbert this year would go far towards deciding if one or both can assume a portion of Tomlinson’s workload. Splitting eight or ten carries between them across the final three games should give enough of an idea to work with, and a mid-round draft pick can replace Bennett on the deeper end of the depth chart to possibly earn that backup role and take carries without sacrificing a first or second round draft pick.
Given the Chargers passing game, and the successful glimpses out the fullback-duo when involved more directly in the offense (running or receiving), it seems logical to attempt this third path. Instead of a high pick or money toward a rookie replacement for Tomlinson, platoon the hall of famer alongside the current roster.
Instead of 7-10 carries per game for the less than effective Sproles, allow him to slip from backup to his natural state of Swiss-army running back (a sparkplug lining up in a variety of spots taking a-traditional snaps rather than countless runs straight ahead at the heart of a defense), put the ball into Tolbert and Hester’s hands. Allow them to help wear out defenses with a more punishing style.
Given an in house-role shuffling, the team should be able to run the ball effectively while letting the passing game still shine. They will appease the fan-base by keeping Tomlinson, and save money and draft picks by not getting a day one running back. It seems the most logical approach, and one that should pay off for San Diego in the end. Here’s to another division crown in 2010, good luck and go Chargers!
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NFL Playoffs Left in Question Following Big Weekend
Published: December 14, 2009
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All Denver and Jacksonville had to do was win to become virtual (though not mathematical) locks to secure the AFC wildcards. In the NFC the Cowboys and Giants could solidified the NFC race with wins, yet instead watched Philadelphia leapfrog ahead to the division lead while the Cowboys and Giants appear to be fighting for that sixth seed now.
In a weekend that could have been filled with coffin nails, hope survived just a little longer for several teams who won while those ahead of them largely fell. Now teams thought long out of the playoffs still see a glimmer of hope. In the AFC especially, 9-7 may just end up edging into the playoffs.
Miami defeating Jacksonville held the most blatant impact. With a win Jacksonville would be 8-5 and hold a solid lead with a pair of difficult games upcoming. Facing New England and Indianapolis, the 7-6 Jaguars could easily see an 8-8 finish after a 7-5 start.
Miami meanwhile kept its hopes alive by ascending above .500 for the first time all year. Facing the Titans, Texans, and Steelers, they have a much greater chance of running the table and finishing 10-6. Their big playoff question will come down to week 16 when Jacksonville plays New England. If a struggling Patriots team manages a loss, Miami may just be able to squeak into that divisional seed. If Jacksonville drops that game, Miami will be in a great position for the sixth and final playoff berth.
Baltimore finally assumed the role of ‘other AFC North team’, which had been given to Pittsburgh by default ever since Cincinnati assumed sole possession of the division. They have failed to string together consecutive victories since the 3-0 start against San Diego, but have a great opportunity to break that trend with Chicago, Oakland, and Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule.
The mostly disappointing Jets and temporarily deflated Titans have also watched playoff hopes continue. The New York Jets dipped above .500 for the first time since week five (which was ironically a loss to the aforementioned Dolphins). At 7-6 they occupy a four-way tie for that sixth seed with the Jaguars and Dolphins.
Facing two playoff teams (Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals) and one desperate to stay alive in the playoff hunt (Atlanta Falcons), the Jets schedule is the toughest by far of the wildcard hopefuls. They will need the Colts to give Manning and company a lot of rest week 16 to hope for a 2-1 record and a 9-7 wildcard.
The Tennessee Titans were considered eliminated for all practicality after falling to Indianapolis last week. The unfortunate scheduling bump in the road against an undefeated Colts team following a string of five straight victories dropped the team to 5-7.
At the time it was thought even an undefeated run and a 9-7 record would come up short. Instead they just might be able to squeeze out the last spot thanks to several tough games for those 7-6 teams. Next week’s direct battle with Miami may just decide who holds onto that final seed.
So who will grab that AFC wildcard? It will likely come down to Miami versus Baltimore. The Ravens and Dolphins fight will likely come down to a tie-breaker between the two 10-6 teams. Both would have the same conference records in that scenario, which means a tie-breaker involving the ‘best win-loss percentage among common games’.
Competition is much less bunched together in the NFC. Assuming the Packers maintain their fifth seeding, three teams are vying for that sixth and final seed (four should San Francisco upset Arizona tonight). Atlanta (who would share 6-7 with San Francisco), Dallas (having just dropped behind the Eagles in the division and stand at 8-4), and the New York Giants (hoping the Cowboys continue their December ways while sitting a game back at 7-6).
Dallas currently holds lone possession of that sixth seed, and is even still fighting for the division after dipping a single game below Philadelphia. They do face a difficult remaining schedule, playing the New Orleans Saints, much improved Washington Redskins, and finish the year head-to-head with the Philadelphia Eagles.
It is highly likely Dallas plays out the season to t tune of a 1-2 finish that lands them at 9-7. This would require a lot of help to get them into the postseason. If Washington can play as they have the last few weeks, a 2008 Broncos emulating 8-8 finish is not unheard of.
The New York Giants may find themselves cheering on Philadelphia just after losing to them in a 45-38 shootout. One game back of Dallas and still trying to regain form after a torrid start to the year, the Eagles topping Dallas in week 17 might very well be the game that puts New York into the playoffs.
The Giants play two winnable games against the Redskins and Panthers, followed by a season-closing tough matchup with Minnesota. New York will likely have to hope the Vikings, having secured the second seed, will take a note from the Indianapolis Colts and give their starters significant rest in that final game.
The troubles in Dallas and New York provide Atlanta some hope despite another loss. At 6-7 and suffering from a multitude of injuries, they have to hope they can get hot while Dallas and New York continue their late season difficulties.
The Jets, Bills, and Buccaneers all constitute winnable games. They should be able to finish 9-7. Unfortunately their fate is more in the hands of the Cowboys and Giants, and how those teams respond to difficult final schedules.
Ultimately the NFC’s sixth seed might very well back into the playoffs; all major competitors to that final seed are witnessing difficult stretches, going a combined 5-10 in the last five games. Whichever one can break the trend first should be able to secure the final wildcard. At this juncture it would appear Dallas’ mid-season surge should be enough to hang on for that last playoff berth.
Instead of discussing how the playoff matches are beginning to shape up, this week continued to shake things up and continue the debate over just who will make those playoffs. Teams on life support continued to breathe while others looking for solid ground found quicksand. Judging by play and final schedules it would appear Dallas and Baltimore should be the teams to grab those sixth seeds, but the truth will probably be in doubt through the final weekend of regular season play.
To see just how some playoff standards have dipped below expectations to open room for these teams see:
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San Diego Chargers Weekend Puts Sights Squarely on the Playoffs
Published: December 14, 2009
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The San Diego Chargers watched a near perfect weekend unfold with regards to their playoff positioning. They defeated Dallas to climb to a 10-3 record, while at the same time witnessing two key games align just as the Chargers would wish them.
The Cincinnati Bengals fell to the Minnesota Vikings 30-10 and the Denver Broncos comeback bid failed in losing to the Indianapolis Colts 28-16. Both losses were as beneficial to San Diego as any game of their own.
The Bengals and Chargers had been separated by only the tie—breaker in determining the second seed. Watching the Bengals lose, San Diego is now in sole possession of that first—round bye with an upcoming head—to—head with Cincinnati.
They are also a full two games ahead of Denver now, allowing for some divisional breathing room. With the rebirth of Tennessee, and Washington playing much better football, the final schedule is far more difficult than it had appeared at midseason. The game gained could prove extremely valuable.
San Diego also took advantage of the weekend to complete a sweep of the NFC East, having already defeated the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants in the early stages of their eight—game winning streak. While not the Saints or Vikings, it still constitutes three playoff—caliber teams who legitimize the Charger’s current hot stretch.
San Diego still has concerns to address prior to the playoffs. They gave up 109 yards rushing to the three Dallas running backs, including a 5.1 yards per carry average to Felix Jones and a 5.5 yard per carry average to Tashard Choice (albeit on only two runs).
This has been a weakness of the team ever since Jamal Williams went onto IR while his backup Ryon Bingham already was out for the year. They will need the run defense to tighten once January football begins.
The pass rush also has shown some difficulty finishing. After a brief streak where Shawne Merriman looked to be regaining form, securing four sacks in two games, he has been shut down in the last four games (five if you include one missed due to injury).
Like Merriman, the team itself has dipped in this area, garnering eight sacks in that five game span after posting fifteen in the three games prior. Billed as an attacking defense, they have been able to put pressure on quarterbacks, just not with enough consistency (or finish) to be comfortable.
The team’s offense is much less concerning. Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson are continuing a tag—team year as teams have proven unable to stop both players in the same game. The array of passing threats makes this team capable of putting up points on any defense.
What they still cannot do is run the ball effectively. Through these thirteen games, they have only had two where the lead rusher has averaged four yards or better per carry, week one against Oakland and week 10 against the Eagles.
This team is a highly effective unit on a roll. They have a fearsome offense that has never been held below 20 points this year, and have gone unbeaten in December. All this has been accomplished despite battling offensive line injuries and a reduced ground game.
The defense has been sufficient, allowing yardage but keeping the damage from those yards to a minimum. If the patchwork array of nose tackles can continue their admirable substitute play, and the other positions along the defense can get itself healthy for the playoffs, this team should be able to keep any offense bogged down while Philip Rivers continues to dissect opposing offenses.
This weekend has taken a portion of the regular season pressure away, giving the team some room should they err in the final three games. With that the team can now commence preparing for the playoffs, looking to where they can improve, trying to get and stay healthy, as well as focusing on a first round bye instead of a mere divisional victory.
The team has overcome much this year, and continues to impress despite a lessened running game and two key starters having yet to play since week one. One is already on IR, the other quite likely to find himself going the full year without taking a snap.
Instead of waiting to get healthy (as with the late run in last year’s 8-8 near debacle) the team has persevered, and now looks more dangerous than they have since going 14-2 in 2006. Going into the playoffs this is a good state to be in, and may just be the fuel needed to get San Diego past the mid—playoff wall they have been slammed against for so long. Whether they can go the distance or not, San Diego should make for an exciting playoff run this year. Good luck and go Chargers!
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History vs. Health of the Indianapolis Colts: Should Starters Sit?
Published: December 10, 2009
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Up until now, the biggest story of the 2009 NFL season has been the dueling undefeated’s. Never before have two teams gone without a loss this deep into a season. Neither closes the season with only “cupcake” matchups, yet every game remaining looks very winnable for both.
With a great opportunity to not only advance to 16-0, but follow that with a historic meeting of two 18-0 teams at the Super Bowl, the greatest stumbling block to this run at history could very well be the undefeated teams to themselves.
Indianapolis appears especially likely to give key players significant rest to keep them fresh and avoid injury (as Caldwell already stated he would do). This means the final two regular season matchups against the Jets and Bills (both teams that underwhelmed this year and will be looking to make a statement) pose greater than normal upset potential.
Assuming they hold on to win both, this logic is still questionable. The capacity for unheralded players to step up and perform has been the hallmark of the injury ravaged Colts for the entire year. Peyton Manning aside, no injury would truly devastate this team. The Colts are not a team limping to the finish and looking to get healthy. This degree of caution is unwarranted.
Indianapolis will already be getting a first round bye. Keeping starters on the shelf for longer runs its own risk—that of a potential letdown as a few cobwebs can begin to set in. This idea is not without precedent. In 2007 an injury depleted San Diego team hobbled into Indianapolis for the divisional round playoff match.
Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and LaDainian Tomlinson were all injured before or during the game (at a time when Tomlinson was a much bigger part of the team’s offense). They had just completed a hard fought match against Tennessee and were poised to be shredded by the high powered Colts.
Instead, they scraped to an improbable 28-24 victory. While it can never be truly quantified, Indianapolis appeared to be out of tune during the game, looking more like an early season team trying to get its stride back. One must consider the possibility that the extended rest for key players broke whatever stride they had been hitting to close the season.
Will this be a concern again?
This opportunity for a team to step in and upset the Colts is a larger concern than failing to go 16-0. There will be no easy opponents in the playoffs. Indianapolis is resilient but beatable. To be able to pull off multiple fourth-quarter comebacks a team must start with multiple fourth-quarter deficits.
Assuming the divisional leaders win their respective first rounds, would the Colts wish to spend the first quarter or half getting back in sync against the Chargers, Bengals, or Patriots? All have reason to believe they can beat the Colts, and all have great motivation to do so. If one major complaint can be fielded against Indianapolis over its Peyton Manning-era, it has been the lack of a killer instinct in the playoffs.
With his Super Bowl victory in 2007, Peyton Manning finally shook that critical monkey from his back. Yet, for all of his success and entry into arguments over “greatest quarterback of all time,” he still has a mediocre 7-8 record in postseason. The blame is not entirely on him, but he is useful as a time-stamp of this era of Indianapolis football.
With a chance to make history, the Colts should show some of that killer instinct by going out and playing the first unit through the entire sixteen games. Of course by the fourth quarter it is logical to put the most important players on the bench, but play the bulk of the final games full out. Use the time to build momentum just before the playoffs.
If Freeney, Manning, or Wayne is hurt during that time, of course Jim Caldwell will hear fans calling for his head. It is a calculated risk. But after taking that “safe” route for so many years, could one truly say it has ultimately played to the Colts’ benefit?
This was not a fringe wildcard team with a 7-8 record. This was a team that was upset multiple times. If they want for this to be the year they push over .500 in the playoffs, they should show a new look. Go against Buffalo and New York looking to dominate. Show why this team is presently undefeated and let Peyton Manning fight for that MVP award.
The concept holds true for both teams, but I feel that Indianapolis is the most likely to rest starters, and the most susceptible to a potential letdown if they do. Every element of football is a risk. Weighing the potential for disaster (a Jim Sorgi playoff) against the potential benefit (a tenacious team staying hot to win out in the playoffs), it should be concluded that both teams will benefit by not giving too much bench time to their key players, and maintaining as they have all year.
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Should San Diego Chargers Take Another Chance On a Medical Question Mark?
Published: December 10, 2009
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In 2009 San Diego spent a seventh round draft pick on wide receiver Demetrius Byrd. This was a player who they knew would not play in 2009, and might not ever play. They took the chance because it was a late draft pick that went towards a late second-round quality player. Assuming health permits his return to the football field, this could potentially be a great bargain for the team.
Another player whose football career was in jeopardy looks to make himself eligible for this coming draft, USC alum Stafon Johnson*. Having missed an entire season due to a gruesome weight room injury where his larynx was crushed during bench presses, he will not be drafted high at all, and could even run the risk of going undrafted altogether.
This could be a great opportunity for a San Diego team that soon needs to find at least a compliment to Tomlinson. Sproles is a great, versatile weapon, but defenses have had much better success stopping him on runs this year. In six games with significant carries (seven or more) he has only once averaged better than three yards per carry.
Hester and Tolbert have shown some potential, putting up good yardage in garbage minutes. The team however has thus far appeared reticent to attempt an expansion of that role, giving them a combined eight carries in the two games following their big second half against Denver.
Stafon Johnson is a well rounded back, meaning he doesn’t have the pure elusiveness of Sproles, or the brute force of Michael Turner. This may actually be ideal for a tandem back, as the team can run Tomlinson-suited plays through Johnson (that playcalling is, I feel, a big part of Sproles’ reduced success taking handoffs this year).
Despite the strong run the Chargers are having at present, they will have a long wish list in the offseason. This starts with a number of players that they will want to resign, a situation that will probably prevent any aggressive action in the free agent market.
They also have depth and health concerns along both lines. Jamal Williams will be back, but his knees are still plenty creaky, and none of the host of backups stepping in (as admirably as they may be doing) looks to be his heir apparent.
On offensive line they need a starting-quality right tackle to pair with Marcus McNeil. Jeremy Clary is a good backup who can step in to spot start. He is not the answer as a long term starter, and a trip to the second team would expand that area’s depth and versatility as well.
Cornerback is a point of some concern. After making an early push to supplant Cromartie, Antoine Cason found himself sliding down the depth chart, losing his nickel role to Steven Gregory. Even with his success, the team has three cornerbacks total at present. Next to Rivers, Quentin Jammer might just be the most indispensable player on the team just because of what’s behind him.
While you can also make arguments for any number of positions (one more wideout, a true road paving fullback, etc.), the point is that day early to mid rounds can be spent in any number of positions. I don’t think this team will pursue a day one running back.
So why not take a chance on a potential bargain. Use a late round flyer to snag a guy who could very well prove a much higher value than his draft position suggests. If he doesn’t work out and spends most of his time riding the bench, it’s still a feel-good story with great PR for the team. I think that makes for a win-win proposition for a team that can better spend its first day drafting elsewhere.
*Source: “LA Sports Live” radio program 710 espn
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NFL Football Fragments: When Is Improvement a Bad Thing?
Published: December 8, 2009
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Sometimes utter collapse can be better for a team than showing some reason for optimism, especially in the closing half of a season. Miami is a perfect example of this. The 1—15 debacle two years ago was the trigger for a thorough purge that rapidly charged the team back to respectability.
After a division crown last year, they will most likely miss the playoffs this time around, with injuries and an 0—3 start to the year giving them just a little too much to overcome. Yet they are proving to be stiff competition, as evidenced by their 22—21 duel with the New England Patriots.
One has to wonder, if Miami had done just enough to eke out a 4—12 or 5—11 record in 2007, does Parcells get brought on board for a thorough housecleaning? Or does Cam Cameron get a pass because it was his first year as head coach? You could contend that NFL use of the wildcat offense has Miami’s miserable year to thank.
Miami used that springboard for a rapid turnaround while many teams continue to flounder and return less than expected results. In some sense, the conclusion could be drawn that these teams that continually put up just enough at spurts to give hope, are causing themselves damage by allowing a front office to simply try and fine-tune the team.
Washington and Oakland both are giving fans reason to hope for 2010.
The Redskins are 1—3 in their last four games, but have played three playoff teams in the Eagles, Saints, and Cowboys tight, losing by an average of 2.3 points. Jason Campbell especially has looked much better, after being considered almost a placeholder by midseason.
The Raiders have had more literal success, posting a 2—1 record as of late in defeating the Bengals and Steelers. Like Washington, they have drawn off of improved quarterback play (this time by way of a personnel change in benching Jamarcus Russell in favor of Bruce Gradkowski).
Four games remain, and anything can happen, yet one has to feel both of these teams are much more optimistic now than they were at midseason. Where this could have an impact though, would be if these players and teams showed just enough in the final stretches to save a few jobs that probably should be lost.
Will Gradkowski and his receiving corps be given the keys to 2010? Will Jason Campbell return as Washington’s leader? Will those moves pay off if they come to pass?
Oakland has seen late—season encouragement before. Russell had shown enough progress to close 2008 that he was given multiple chances for success in 2009, keeping his starter’s role for two or three games longer than he probably should have. They were encouraged by a 3—3 finale to that 2008 year, enough that they banked on the progress of many young players and retained interim coach Tom Cable.
They also stayed somewhat quiet in the free agent market (Greg Ellis aside), especially on the offensive side of the football, where they needed the most improvement.
The beginning of this year saw the number of young players the team had pinned its hopes on falter, en route to a 2—7 start that wrecked any chance of a late season push getting them anything but a cheaper draft pick. If the team feels the Shilens’ injury and the rookie learning curves of Murphy and Heyward-Bey justify another year with the same cast, this team could once again struggle.
Given a full year, will a team burned by Russell’s dead-weight contract be reticent to pursue a franchise quarterback and put their faith solely on Gradkowski? Once again the team could struggle out of the gate.
Washington entered the season with higher expectations than Oakland (and find themselves with one less win than the Raiders as well), banking on the signing of mammoth Albert Haynesworth to push this team into the crowded NFC East race.
Now that they rest at 3—9, serious doubt surrounds the team. Yet progress has been made. They have played good teams to tight matches, and look ready to steal at least one big upset by season’s end.
Jim Zorn is likely gone from the team, so this push probably won’t save his job.
Jason Campbell and other pieces of the offense are another question. Campbell is the type of player you want to succeed. He works hard and does not hold prima donna viewpoints.
He is also highly inconsistent and can spend one game in All-Pro form (four games with a passer rating over 95) and the very next looking like a journeyman at best (four games rating below 75).
If he continues on this pace in the last six games, he will probably do enough to earn one more year. Whether that year is with a drafted franchise guy sitting behind him is uncertain.
The team’s late improvement may also be enough for the team to keep riding Clinton Portis, whose body was ready to break down even before the season—ending concussion.
One big free agent was not enough last offseason. Will the team learn from this mistake or try to pair one big name with a new coach and a team that seems on the cusp and fail because of it in 2010? This remains to be seen.
San Francisco, after some early season buzz, has cooled from the encouraging end to 2008. Mike Singletary’s leadership made the team relevant again, and a fast start to the year gave the team the appearance of a playoff team emerging despite very little change in the offseason, especially offensively.
The initial fire that Singletary brought to the team has since faded.
They have gone 2—6 since that opening four game charge, and are realistically (albeit, not yet mathematically) out of the playoffs. Will the team use Alex Smith’s improvement and Crabtree’s late start as a sign to go with another similar offseason? Will the young inconsistent team mature into a contender over the course of an entire season? Or will the team put its faith in the signs of optimism, and continue to fall short?
Another long term victim of this trend rests in the cold north of Buffalo. Three consecutive 7-9 years have led to frequent offseason speculation that they are one right move away from playoff contention. Giving Lee Evans a playmate in Terrell Owens would break up double teams and open up the field to make this team a legitimate wild-card contender.
They quickly slammed the door on that notion, opening the year at 1—4. Will the lessons of the past three offseasons be enough for this team to realize the flaw in their “almost there” approach that has attempted to finetune a team that needs a deeper reworking? Or will the buzz of a new head coach, paired with the improvement of a 3—4 record the last seven games be enough to keep the team’s personnel office in neutral?
Many other teams are showing signs of life. Some will likely make good on improvement to generate an impressive 2010 year. Others will regress early, only to finish with mediocre results.
The Tennessee Titans will probably give Vince Young the year to prove himself after returning to the starting lineup, an apparently changed man. The future success of this team sits squarely on his arm and Chris Johnson’s legs.
Any team can play the phoenix and rise from the ashes of a dead season to make the playoffs the following year. Some teams even succeed with the “just a small tweak to push it over” approach (see Saints, New Orleans).
Most teams that remain stagnant, hoping a few encouraging signs will be enough to “take the next step” with a relatively unchanged team, will continue to underwhelm the following year. Losing can often become a culture in a given town, and considerable shakeups are necessary to remove a team from a several—year funk.
The team that realizes this, and makes the needed changes, will likely be the one to raise eyebrows in 2010.
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San Diego Chargers: Did Beating the Brown Tell Us Anything?
Published: December 7, 2009
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San Diego won its seventh game in a row en route to a 9-3 record, maintaining pace over the Cincinnati Bengals for the second seed (same records, Chargers hold the tie-breaker) and the Denver Broncos for the division (a one game edge). They also saw the New England Patriots drop two games back in the race for a bye, and Ladainian Tomlinson surpass Jim Brown for eighth on the all-time rushing list. All in all it was a good week.
With that said, one must be grounded for a moment. San Diego defeated arguably the worst team in the NFL and by only a touchdown. This was a victory to be happy for, but not one to hang their hat on. They must remained focus if they look to take down the other titans of the league right now.
Looking at the game a few factors present themselves that will become interesting to observe. First, on offense was the second consecutive monster game by Antonio Gates. What this team is proving is that you can focus on Vincent Jackson or Antonio Gates, but not both. They also showed some good passing diversity, putting the ball in the hands of six different receivers with only eighteen total receptions.
What they still are having trouble doing is running the ball. A Cleveland team that is the fourth-worst run defense in the NFL, and without its best defensive player, still held all runners under four yards carry. Tomlinson broke a few decent runs, but still only managed 3.2 per carry with 64 runs.
I love the loyalty/faith the team shows in Tomlinson, but once he had topped Jim Brown they should have return to mixing other backs into the rotation. Mike Tolbert has been having a great last few weeks and should have earned some non-garbage carries. His sixty-six yard rumbling reception should have highlighted his abilities. Not throwing on 3rd-and-goal from the five was also a case of loyalty outweighing good strategy.
This team has proven one glaring weakness on offense time and time again. They cannot move the chains trying to pound the ball into short yardage. Whether it be an LT eye for the endzone or a Hester fourth down dive, this team has no push. Against a Chiefs or Browns this doesn’t matter. In the playoffs it could.
I am starting to reach dead-horse levels but I still contend they need to try Tolbert in short yardage. He has twenty pounds on Tomlinson or Hester, and moves tacklers backwards. Granted he only has 14 attempts, all in garbage play. But with 6.3 yards per carry one would think one game to try out an expanded role is justified, especially when even Sproles has been pretty effectively contained running the ball this year.
On defense it is hard to say much about the team. They played without Weddle, Merriman, and Castillo. They also gave significant time to younger players and backups in the second half. When the patchwork starting unit played they mostly held the Browns throughout the evening, despite much improved play by Quinn (some young mistakes but he has finally started to look like an actual quarterback). That first touchdown drive had me very nervous, but they spent the next forty minutes bottling them up well.
A little too much youth and a team shutting it down a little too early gave rise to a sudden frightening comeback, with 16 unanswered Cleveland points in the fourth quarter. This, alongside the short-yardage woes, is the big concern for the playoffs. Whether it be to start the game or end the game, the Chargers are a team fond of taking a quarter off. The Eagles and Browns nearly made them pay. If they do this at the wrong time they will pay.
Ultimately a win is a win, and a 9-3 record would give them at least a two game edge in any other division. But unlike the Giants or Eagles, Cleveland should not be a close match, even if it took a little fourth quarter magic to make it anything besides a 30-7 blowout.
This team needs to balance its loyalty to Tomlinson with its aim to win games. The best way they can do that is to find out if Hester or Tolbert can help the team into a platoon system.
Give someone else the rock a few times and see what happens. I love what he has meant to San Diego, but that’s the biggest lesson I take away from this Cleveland game. He is not a threat to average four yards per carry any night (let alone season), figure out if you have someone to share the load with on the team, or if that will be something to look at in the offseason.
It can’t do the team any harm to see someone else get a handful of carries, it would not be costing them yards. Find out what pieces you have, give the guy 15 instead of 20 carries, it may even keep him less dinged up for the playoffs and give a little more spark. Good luck and Go Chargers!
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