As the NFL Season Winds Down Favorites Start Shaping Up

Whether it is favorites for division winners, or simply who will likely make the playoffs at all, the season’s three-quarter mark of twelve games elapsed has seen some clarity begin to take shape.

Certain candidates essentially dropped from the race while others stepped up to add some foundation to formerly creaky positions. Here’s how the games stacked up:

 

Cardinals Crush Vikings—Thirteen points is a bit scant to call crushing, but it was most definitely a statement that a simple down-to-the-wire game would not have made. 

The only real impact on the playoff race itself pertains to seeding, not actually winning a division or making the wildcard, as both teams have virtually locked up their respective divisions. Minnesota is now highly unlikely to have a shot at grabbing the No. 1 seed away from the Saints, falling two games behind New Orleans.

The Cardinals, still two behind the Vikings for that second bye, suddenly legitimized a claim to the playoffs while many still consider them a wildcard team benefiting from a weak division. Below two yards a carry for Peterson and Favre nearly doubling his interception total (granted from just three to five) was impressive for the Cardinals, a streaky team that is dangerous when firing on all cylinders.

Outlook—The Vikings should still take the second seed, and as long as Warner doesn’t miss any more games the Cardinals should wrestle the third seed away from the near logjam in the NFC East. 

 

Seahawks Edge Out 49ers—The Seahawks were fighting for nothing but pride (and maybe to prove they were a step ahead of the worst half dozen teams). The 49ers were already on the ropes, likely needing to win out. They aren’t mathematically eliminated, but in all practicality are out.

Outlook—After that 3-1 start, San Francisco is 2-6 the rest of the way. Forget playoffs, .500 would be the best they can practically expect.

 

Giants Defeat Cowboys—This really muddles up the playoff picture. A win would have kept Dallas in charge of the NFC East albeit with Philly hot on their heels. It would have also put the Giants’ playoff hopes in serious trouble. 

Now with some tough matchups and that December talk resurfacing, Dallas players could have to start fighting for their jobs. Conversely, the Giants may have just saved their own.

Outlook—Dallas should have enough firepower to hang onto a playoff berth, but with a tough final four games they will need the Eagles to drop their Giants or Broncos matchup to get the division. Ultimately Dallas gets the sixth seed and Philly the Fourth. Giants put enough together to fall a game short of the playoffs.

 

Chargers Beat Browns—San Diego maintains its slight advantage for the second seed over Cincinnati (by tie breaker), while staying a game ahead of Denver. With the Broncos shaping up the last two weeks and a tough four game schedule remaining, San Diego has no room to take a breath.

Outlook—San Diego hangs onto the Division but grabs the third seed.

 

Saints Defeat Redskins—The only real impact (aside from the 16-0 quest) would be the two-game edge over Minnesota, meaning New Orleans should have home field through the playoffs.

 

Eagles Shoot Down Falcons—This battle of the birds put one in a great position, (catching Dallas at 8-4 in the NFC East), and the other to the limit (6-6 fourth in line for the two wildcard berths). Atlanta’s high preseason hopes seem to have unraveled by a few key losses at just the wrong times.

Meanwhile, the Eagles look to legitimize themselves not just as a playoff candidate, but one that can make noise once there.

Outlook—Falcons have too much to overcome; they end at 9-7 (only because of a soft final three games), while the Eagles go 11-5 and edge Dallas by a game for the NFC East crown. 

 

Jaguars Defeat the Texans—Very similar to the Eagles/Falcons game. One team put themselves in a great playoff position, while the other probably just knocked themselves out of the race. 

The Jaguars now hold a one game advantage over the Steelers (at minimum the tie-breaker over the Ravens depending on tonight’s result), and after a setback against San Francisco, have now gone 4-1 in the last five games. 

Houston meanwhile could drop below their accustomed 8-8 and have probably seen the last of Coach Gary Kubiak.

Outlook—With a very difficult three games coming up, they will likely need to go 2-1 against the Colts/Dolphins/Patriots to hang onto a wildcard. The Texans need a lot of teams to do a lot of losing to have any chance. It won’t happen. 

Jags ultimately come down to tie-breaking procedure to take the sixth seed.

 

Bengals Scratch Up the Lions—With their own division-mates stumbling, this was to keep pace with San Diego for the second seed. They reach 9-3 while watching Benson return to form. 

Outlook—Division’s a lock, second seed determined by a tough head-to-head in San Diego. Bengals edge Chargers for the first round bye.

 

Bears Beat Rams—Chicago remains in mathematically, but last week essentially finished their playoff hopes.

 

Colts Top Titans—Tennessee’s unexpected charge up the rankings was finally halted by the brick wall that is the Indianapolis Colts. They needed to win out to make the playoffs. Now they need the Ravens, Steelers, and Jaguars to all suffer letdowns for any chance.

Outlook—They’ve salvaged their pride, but the Titans were a game too late in starting the run to actually make the playoffs. Indianapolis has the No. 1 seed locked and the only question is, do they fight for 16-0 or take the last two games off to rest? 

 

Raiders Shock Steelers—Last week the Steelers were a good team losing a few tight games, suffering some injury problems, and looking to make a run for the playoffs. Now they’ve dropped games to the Chiefs and Raiders in a four game streak that puts them behind three teams (even if the Ravens lose, they presently hold the tie-breaker), and will need more than a little help to stay alive.

Outlook—They halt their skid against the Browns, but go 1-2 the rest of the way for an 8-8 finish.

 

Broncos Wallop Chiefs—After the growing optimism surrounding an upset over Pittsburgh, the Chiefs have now dropped two division games 87-26.

The Broncos now have a two-game winning streak to build momentum with, and keep pace with the San Diego Chargers.

Outlook—Playing the Colts and Eagles, the Broncos stay a game behind San Diego to grab the No. 5 seed.

 

Dolphins Pound Patriots—Dolphin fans have to be excited about Chad Henne in 2010. 

As far as 2009 they still have unexpected life going to 6-6 alongside Pittsburgh and behind the Jaguars and Broncos. Losing their two most important players to season-ending injuries, the Dolphins have a hard, but winnable, schedule (all four teams right on either side of .500). Some faltering ahead of them could secure a playoff berth. 

The Patriots have now placed themselves in the position of No. 4 seed, two games behind San Diego and Cincinnati. Even more scary is that the Dolphins and Jets are only one game back.

Outlook—The Patriots go 3-1 to stave off division challengers, but grab the fourth seed.  The Dolphins make a good run, but too many pieces are missing and they come up just short.

 

Jets Defeat Bills – The Jets, like the Dolphins, were basically eliminated with last week’s outcomes (despite a win). Sill, the New England Patriot’s struggles breathe some waning life into their chances. Ending the season against the Colts and Bengals does them no favors however.

Outlook—A desperate Falcons team gives them a three game losing streak and a 7-9 record to end the year.

 

Watch the evolution of the playoff race:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/299707-playoff-picture-starting-to-tighten

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/296158-nfl-playoff-outlook-shaken-up-in-surprising-week

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/291835-wild-nfl-weekend-muddles-playoff-picture

 

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San Diego Chargers Injury Concerns Reason for Excitement

What had initially taken shape as an article triggered by a FoxSports injury report listing Eric Weddle, Luis Castillo, and Shawne Merriman all likely to miss next week’s game pondering the recent injury history of San Diego took an unexpected turn.  This year the injuries may mean something different for San Diego, or I should say in not meaning anything they mean a lot (does your head hurt yet?).

All teams in all sports face injury problems.  That goes exponentially higher for football teams due to the heavy pounding and massive rosters.  That having been said, from late 2008 to present the volume of man-games lost (especially along the front seven and offensive line) has been above the curve.

Traditionally that had been something of an explanation for certain aspects of the team.  2008 saw a Super Bowl favorite team come away feeling like they overachieved for going as deep as they had in the playoffs with their three offensive cornerstones injured.  In 2009 a slothlike 4-8 start and mediocre 8-8 finish were also attributed to injuries and time lost. 

Those injuries themselves played key on some of the biggest questions going into this year, namely unaddressed depth.  Jamal Williams and his creaky knees (one could not have guessed he’d go on IR after game one, but missing 3-4 games at minimum was expected) , an offensive line that saw one name added and two let go, would Merriman be able to return from a major injury etc.

The season has now seen nearly every concern come to light.  Jamal Williams and Ryon Bingham both went on injured reserve before the season could even really be called a season.  Nick Hardwick has yet to play since week one and several other offensive linemen have missed assorted games, including the most recent being Jeremy Clary joining the growing list of injured-reservists. 

Playing just behind the various mix and match nose tackles, Stephen Cooper, Tim Dobbins, and Kevin Burnett have all missed game and played dinged up in others.  Beside them Merriman has not missed significant time, but has spent the bulk of the season slowed by various injury issues himself.

San Diego opened the season 2-3, with a close win against Oakland and a victory over Miami where Chad Pennington was knocked out mid-game.  It appeared the Chargers would not only get off to their characteristic slow start, but once again have that injury complaint to fall back on.  With a hard driving Broncos reaching 6-0, the team’s injury woes and slow start looked like a sizable road block.

In the midst of this something happened.  San Diego started picking up steam before the team got healthy.  Playing the Chiefs and Raiders made for a nice jump-start to the team.  Following the pair of divisional games however, was a three game stretch against the Giants, Eagles, and Broncos (with two out of three on the road).  San Diego clawed pack against the Giants, then rode a fast start to victory over Philadelphia. 

Neither win was perfect, San Diego needed a game-closing drive to come back against New York, and gave back most of a huge lead against the Eagles before putting them away.  Within these flaws some reason for excitement was growing.

The team proved it could take a game to the final seconds and finish a comeback in New York, something the team fell just short of against Baltimore (we will forgo discussions of fourth down halfback up the gut calls).  It also marked the first winning team the Chargers had defeated, skidding or not the Giants were still over .500 and the first true feather in the team’s cap.

An even more legitimate ‘solid’ team came to town the following week and San Diego put up a 28-9 lead after three quarters of play.  Two Eagles touchdowns in the fourth frayed a few San Diegan’s nerves, but the team held firm and came away with a victory that placed them one game back of the faltering Broncos while building steam with four consecutive victories.

The last two weeks San Diego has outscored its pair of divisional opponents 75-17.  Both of them being significant games (a fight for first in the AFC west and a Chiefs team with its first winning streak high off a Steeler upset).  San Diego has been just as dinged up across this six game winning streak as it had been during the 2-3 start.

Instead of letting it be reason for a failed comeback against New York, or a successful one by Philadelphia, the team persevered as significant teams do.  San Diego has long been a great team on paper that seemed to be held back by one key injury too many oftentimes.  The team has not succeeded by breaking its trend of injury (Jamal Williams’ shadow will loom over the run defense all year) but instead has finally found the capacity to overcome injuries and win anyway.

One always wants their team to be at full health, but it a certain way I think the success with all of the injuries sustained speaks even more to the team’s potential in the playoffs.  If the wrong guy goes down at the wrong time, it is no longer an excuse for falling short.  This team has learned to adapt and evolve into multiple entities based on available personnel and matchups. 

With a successful history against the AFC’s primary contender, the other major players in the conference slipping down a peg or two (Pittsburgh fighting to get in the playoffs, Cincinnati dropping a shocker to Oakland, the Patriots vulnerable defense), San Diego looks poised for one of its greatest playoff opportunities since Stan Humphries last wore lightning bolts.

I try to be the cautious fan when it comes to looking at the future, blind faith has a bad habit of leaving one burned.  But the more this team performs regardless of who is on the field and how they are doing it, the more I think this just might be their best shot at playing in February.

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Just What’s in a Rivalry?

While I normally attempt to keep my articles to a more journalistic (amateur that they may be) perspective, 135 miles worth of daily commuting makes for a many “what ifs” and “I wonders” to tap dance through my skull. 

Occasionally this means something with a more directly opinion/curiosity over hypothetical/analysis leaks through.

The concept of the hyper-rivalry, and an intrigue over it, is one of those such times.  I am a fervent Chargers fan, enough that a loss will equate to at least one broody, sullen day (which I suppose is better than flat-out angry).  So when it comes to my own team, emotions can run quite strong.

To spend just as much emotional effort hating another team escapes me.  I get the idea of rivalry, and any division win is just a little bit sweeter than a ‘normal’ game. 

Yet on the converse, I can’t actually dig up the same passion against the other team as I have for my own.

I am more knowledgeable on a game by game/play by play basis when discussing my choice of favorite team, this is undeniable. 

Yet I still enjoy going into a Raider or Bronco forum and playing with hypotheticals and conjecture about what is going on with a given team, what might be done to improve, etc.

It baffles me to go to an article about a rival team, just for to lambast and trash said team.  What is the allure of that strong of a disdain? 

It is not pure jealousy, as some argue.  I have seen too many fans of ‘good’ teams bash a struggling rival, or a fan of a middling team bash a rival team of similar performance/quality (and every variation in between). 

Sports are about strong feelings and support.  No one expects a valium-hazed lot to sing kumbaya in the parking lot before a game.  But why not put that energy into doubling support of one’s own team?

This is not a rebuke, it would be hypocritical to pretend to tell folks how to be a fan.  It is, on the contrary, curiosity.  What is the attraction of it?  Why do you enjoy it (if ‘enjoy’ is the right word)? 

Could you ever bring yourself to take a third-party look at a rival team?  Please fire away with comments on either side of the fence.

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Could Cutting Chris Chambers Capture Chargers Crown?

On the heels of responding to a comment on an older article projecting the impact of the Chris Chambers loss for the Chargers (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/283860-what-losing-chambers-means-to-sd-if-anything ), I realized something quite interesting. Cutting the better player (Chris Chambers rather than Craig Davis) might just prove to be a move of accidental genius on the part of A.J. Smith.

At present, the Denver Broncos are a game back of San Diego, with two fairly tough games remaining against the Eagles and the Colts. Surrounding those two toughies are three divisional games, all against teams not named the San Diego Chargers. Denver is not the same powerhouse that they were in Weeks 1 through 6. However, they are not quite as bad as their losing skid suggests. Falling somewhere in between those two extremes may be just enough to top the Eagles, if the cards fall right.

Meanwhile, San Diego has a rather deceptive schedule. They play only two winning teams in Dallas and Cincinnati, but two of the three sub-.500 teams they face are playing much better football now than at any other time this year. The Redskins shouldn’t be a problem, but the Titans look to be a major pain in the rear. 

I project the Chargers to finish 4-1 to snag a 12-4 record, with the first round bye dependent on whether or not they can beat the Bengals. The Chargers should at least be able to end the season winning three of their final five to finish with a record of 11-5. This record would still give them the advantage, with the onus being on Denver.

If Denver can top the Eagles en route to a 4-1 run to end the season, they’ll be 11-5 as well. The Tie-breaker would be interesting, as they would both be 5-1 in the division, be 1-1 head-to-head, and could quite easily both be 8-4 in the AFC.

One heck of a convoluted tie-breaking arrangement, if you ask me.

Aside from the Chargers holding up their end of the bargain, the biggest asset for the team, in terms of making the playoffs as AFC West Champions, would be the play of the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs are nowhere near where they want to be, the sheer volume of mistakes they made in the Chargers 43-14 victory proves that notion. However, just a week earlier, they took on the Pittsburgh Steelers and came away with an unexpected win. They are a team capable of surprises.

The Chiefs also play Denver twice in the remaining five games. If the Chiefs can pull off a split against the Broncos, Denver would have to finish the season with a better overall record than the Chargers to win the division. Having a two game lead with the season three quarters of the way over (and the Broncos facing the Colts in one of those games) would mean the Chargers would need to suffer a major collapse to miss out on the postseason.

Where does Kansas City harbor its best chance for success? Behind the two men that have rejuvenated the Kansas City offense, running back Jamaal Charles and his spirited (if a little fumble-prone) running mate, and former Charger, Chris Chambers. 

In four games for Kansas City, Chris Chambers has 17 catches for 319 yards and three touchdowns. He is on pace to finish his half-year with Kansas City with better stats than his last year and a half with San Diego. He has established an instant rapport with Matt Cassel and, upon Dwayne Bowe’s return, gives the Chiefs a more well rounded offense.

Should Denver lose a game to Kansas City, you would have to think Chambers would be among the impact players. A Chiefs victory might be just enough to ensure San Diego that division crown and the home field advantage that comes with it. 

The home field advantage in their first playoff game could prove to be crucial, should they be matched up against the Steelers or Ravens. Teams that, despite their records, I think match up better against the Chargers than the Patriots or Colts. 

So in an interesting twist, A.J. Smith cutting Chambers for no reason other than to save a few bucks (as referenced in the article linked to above), could end up becoming a genius move that provides the final spark San Diego needs to go deep into the playoffs.

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NFL Teams Rising Above or Falling Below Expectations

This year many teams have put together seasons that pundits (and fans) did not necessarily expect. Some have put together far better results than expected while others have fallen flat in the midst of high anticipation. Here are just a few of those teams that have either exceded what was expected of them, or found that their seasons have been derailed with results far below par:

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Broncos Make It a Race for San Diego Chargers

In what was lining up to be a perfect weekend for San Diego, one snafu got in the way. They had to face the lackluster Kansas City Chiefs in San Diego.

Denver was on a massive losing skid with a gimpy Kyle Orton playing a Giants team that finally broke its own losing streak and was looking to turn a corner and keep pace in its own divisional race.

The Chargers took care of their end of the deal, putting away the Chiefs just before halftime, carrying a 28-7 lead into the locker room. They did not let up (and the Chiefs did not pick up) as 43-14 victory saw Billy Volek able to make a rare regular-season pass.

Denver, in winning 26-6 against New York, refused to assist the Chargers in building a powerful two-game lead with only five remaining. Instead, the Broncos are a single game back with a possibility for a very interesting tie-breaker, having split the series this year, making it quite likely for both to end with 5-1 divisional records.

San Diego plays two playoff teams in Dallas and Cincinnati, one at home and one away. They also end the year with two opponents that looked much easier a few weeks ago in Tennessee and Washington.

The Broncos have both divisional games against the Chiefs, and one more game against the Raiders to play, paired with Colts and Eagles games.

San Diego fans may find themselves rooting for divisional enemies very soon, as a loss to Oakland or Kansas City would effectively add a game to San Diego’s advantage, regardless of their own outcome that week. 

With only five games left on the schedule and a single-game advantage, holding that tie-breaker would likely secure the division for the Chargers.

The possible return of Denver’s winning ways may hold one other advantage, however. With a team nipping at the Charger’s heels, they won’t be able to let up.

This extra push could be the necessary ingredient to secure a first-round bye for San Diego, who is in a tie with Cincinnati and potentially New England, should they win tonight. 

Right now, from a strange tie-breaking procedure I was unaware of until reading up (strength of opponent not division/conference record when it comes to this seeding), San Diego actually holds the No. 2 seed over Cincinnati right now. 

With this tie-breaking procedure highly tenuous, San Diego must work to maintain pace and earn that second seed and its accompanying bye, which would go a long way towards legitimizing a season that many critics have been doubtful of ever since the opening week’s tight game against Oakland (and its accompanying injuries).

The final advantage is simple. San Diego just matches up better, should Denver earn a wild card, than it would against the Steelers or Ravens.

If Denver’s success can keep one of those two out (and possibly Jacksonville helping to keep both out), I would be quite happy with the way the playoff picture laid itself out.

Here’s to a great playoff race. Good luck, and go Chargers.

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Could Favre’s Monster Season Hurt the Vikings?

Brett Favre is putting together a monstrous year. 

I still think Manning will edge him out in final MVP voting, but one more weekend like this and I have to re-think that notion.  He has taken a massive strain off the team by making it omni-dimensional. 

Yet with all the accolades, and the great things it seems to spell for this season, I can’t help but wonder if his role will backfire long-term for Minnesota.

As a forty year old retiree, he was brought in to be a game managing savvy vet, think a slightly better version of Baltimore’s Trent Dilfer.  Put in 200 yard games, make one or two throws like his 49ers hail mary, and let Adrian Peterson steamroll defenses that now have to put eight instead of nine in the box.

What has come to pass, instead, is a season that could easily go into the books as Brett’s finest. 

He is routinely using the artillery on his shoulder to fire up three hundred yard, multi-touchdown games.  He has done so while making next to none of the mistakes usually attributed to his ‘gunslinger’ mentality. 

The more he tears apart defenses, the better the Vikings playoff outlook is.  So why the concern?

Brett may hmm and haw.  He may even play next year.  But sometime soon he will retire and stay that way. 

The Vikings would be a much better team when that time comes if they were relying on him to do the basics and little more.  Their young stud Peterson will be around for a long time.  His style may make him highly susceptible to the running back age-30 wall, but he will have plenty of years before that time.

It seems the stronger Favre’s performances, the more Peterson is fading into the background.  If you take away the long run/fumble by AP in the game against the Lion’s, he has not had a 100 yard game since week 6 against the Ravens.  More telling is that four of the last five weeks he has averaged below four yards a carry. 

This paired with his tendency to fumble showing itself strongly the last few weeks, makes me wonder how much of the difference is a focal attention on stopping the run, and how much is a growing commitment to the pass? 

With a subpar passing attack last year he averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in nine of his seventeen games.  To date, with team needing to focus some extra defensive attention on the passing game, he has averaged above that in four of eleven games.  53 percent of the time compared to 36 percent.  A fairly significant drop.

With a game-managing Favre, the team would be in a much better position to go replacement shopping. 

Many teams can find quarterbacks that are good, but not necessarily pro bowlers.  In asking Favre to be the hall of famer he is, are the Vikings inviting a letdown when he is gone? 

I know this is not a big deal this year, and whatever is putting up points and wins should be considered the ‘right’ way.  But I wonder if Brett Favre of the first six weeks (224.5 ypg) is better for Minnesota in the long haul than the Brett Favre of the last five (305.4 ypg).

Bottom line: Does Minnesota really want Favre to make himself irreplaceable?

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Chargers Pummel Chiefs: But Did We Learn Anything?

The San Diego Chargers pounded the Kansas City Chiefs 43-14 in what was considered a potential trap game after the Chiefs’ upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.  That the Chargers won to maintain a one game edge over a Broncos team that finally halted its losing streak is good.  That the Chargers won convincingly when concerns over “trap” potential and a letdown were prevalent was also good.  With that said, how much does San Diego take away from this game?

They were expected to win. This was a divisional home game against a team looking towards a top five draft pick. They have now defeated the Chiefs by a combined total of 80-21, a potent series blowout. The Chiefs also gave San Diego too many opportunities for the game to be anything but a blowout. Fumbled quasi-throws, bad snaps, fumbles, interceptions; Kansas City did everything in its power to lose this game. 

San Diego had no complaints.

So where does the team stand? Beyond doing what was expected, what did the actual flow of the game tell?

LaDainian Tomlinson proved that he is still a bit of a spark away, with 39 yards on 13 carries, including a goal-line fumble.  He didn’t have to do much, but it was still another day of three yards or less per carry.  He doesn’t need over four a game anymore, but at least three-and-a-half would make me feel more comfortable. 

Mike Tolbert, on the other hand, followed up his massive 8.3 yard per carry garbage spectacular with another solid performance (albeit on only four carries) for 4.8 yards per carry. 

With Darren Sproles proving to be more of a receiver than a dual-purpose threat on offense (in the five games with more than five carries, he has never averaged better than 2.9 yards a carry this year), why not give him the ball a couple of times a game in non-garbage situations, especially short-yardage?  He is a player that can push the chains and fall forward.  The Chargers should give Sproles a few more carries in regular season games and see if the trend continues into non-garbage play.  Worst-case scenario is that it doesn’t, and you revert to the current situation.

We also learned that the vertical passing game is Antonio Gates’ best friend. With Floyd and Jackson running down field, Gates was left with linebackers on him and responded with a monster day (take away the pass interference and it’s eight grabs for over 120 yards and three touchdowns).  Big days from Gates will force a safety to stay closer, opening up Jackson and Floyd on deep routes.  If they stay true to defending the deep ball, Gates can eat teams alive underneath.

Finally, Nate Kaeding’s 55-yard field goal is big.  As a guy with a highly accurate leg that has occasionally missed big kicks, this could be an important confidence boost going into the playoffs.  That ball would have made it from 60.  As good as he is, he still needs to hit one of those big, defining clutch kicks to make a name for himself and finish erasing the thoughts of John Carney

On the defensive side of the football, we have both good and bad.

Fourteen points is not much, but with all of the Chiefs’ miscues, that could have easily been lower. Cassel was a respectable 19-31 for 178 yards, with a touchdown and a pick.  The Chiefs (mostly via Jamaal Charles) added themselves to the ever-growing list of teams that have put over 100 yards on the ground against San Diego.  Any time the opposition’s primary ball carrier averages well over six yards per carry, that is a problem.

Also a bit of a worry was the inability to finish a sack. The team got great penetration and forced bad throws, made Cassel scamper, and even recorded a safety.  But they continually failed to bring him down. San Diego should have seen about three sacks in the box score, but the big quarterback was solid and mobile enough to elude defenders.

The Chargers are a team on a roll, and they should be congratulated on this latest victory.  A few strides were made (watching Tolbert, Kaeding’s big kick) but ultimately I think this was more about Kansas City than San Diego.  Anything but the worst of days would have been a blowout with the number of Chiefs mistakes, and one cannot expect a team like Dallas or Cincinnati to play that poorly.

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Hines Ward Didn’t Get the Memo on Concussion Safety

I realize that as a fanbase we want our heroes to “gut it out” whenever they can, especially when the playoffs are on the line. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are teetering and needed this game to stay at the top of the wildcard race. So when one is hopeful Big Ben can play, it is understandable. However, the severity of a concussion is not a matter to be glossed over. 

I appreciate Hines Ward as a feisty tough player. As a non-Steeler fan, I really don’t see him as a Bill Romanowski (or even Albert Haynesworth) when it comes to cheap shots and “dirty” play, despite his being voted as such.

However, his quotes in a pregame interview were out of line and his tough guy image/approach may have stepped a bit far this go around. 

In a pregame interview with Bob Costas, here are some of the things Ward stated (a little long but I wanted to make sure “out of context” was not as easily applied):

“This game is almost like a playoff game. It’s almost a must-win. I could see some players or teammates questioning, like ‘It’s just a concussion. I’ve played with a concussion before,'” Ward said to Costas, in an interview taped Saturday at the team’s Suburban-Baltimore hotel as a prelude to the Steelers-Ravens game.

“It’s almost like a 50-50 toss-up in the locker room: Should he play? Shouldn’t he play? It’s really hard to say. I’ve been out there dinged up; the following week, got right back out there. Ben practiced all week. He split time with Dennis Dixon. And then to find out that he’s still having some headaches and not playing, and it came down to the doctors didn’t feel that they were going to clear him or not—it’s hard to say. Unless you’re the person [himself]…I’ve lied to a couple of doctors saying I’m straight, I feel good when I know that I’m not really straight.”

It is great to want to be a competitor and win. Yet I can’t help but feel that the comments were a little disingenuous. It’s not surprising that he thinks that way, but that is not laundry that should be aired out in an interview. It undermines a quarterback who was attempting to play and held back by doctor clearance. He did not pull himself. 

Not one of the three quarterbacks suffering concussions last week played in this weekend’s games. They are even discussing the possibility of barring a quarterback from entering the following week’s game after a concussion-type injury.

I realize Hines Ward is a competitor and his team is about two games behind where they likely expected to be at the outset of the season. Yet why put undue pressure in the locker room, and risk a division in the locker room, just when they need to band together and fight for a wildcard berth?

Public opinion is also hinged on quotables.  He risks half the Steeler fan base by blaming Ben for this loss should they fall just shy of the playoffs, and also risks pitting another big piece of Pittsburgh against himself for potentially divisive comments.

Yes, many players go out and lie about injuries, and some tough it out to try and give their team what they need. Many players also gut it out, get hurt worse, and miss more games than if they would have if they sat when they originally needed to.

One would think you would (at least in the court of public opinion) try and support the guy who has led you to multiple Super Bowls and wish him a speedy recovery. I would certainly prefer that to making the wildcard, then trying to get by without Big Ben as he stares woozily from the sidelines.

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NFL: Playoff Picture Starting to Tighten

After several weeks of big upsets and topsy turvy results, we finally had a weekend that really separated a lot of playoff wheat from chaff.  A few surprising results ensued, as always, yet the biggest factor is the number of teams taken out of the race.

Cowboys beat Raiders—With the Eagles taking a victory against the Redskins, Dallas used the victory to maintain a one game advantage with five games remaining. If Dallas can go 3—2, they should hang onto the NFC East.

Outlook: The division is now Dallas’ to lose, but one game is not enough to breathe easy. Injuries keep Philly just behind and Dallas hangs onto the division.

Packers top Lions- After questions surrounding every facet of the organization when they fell to Tampa Bay, they have risen to 7—2 against all non-purple teams and are a frontrunner for one of the two wildcard berths. At this point only two teams hold 7—4 records, while two more trail one game behind. A very unfriendly remaining schedule with four strong teams makes this a tough run, making Thursday’s win all the more crucial.

Outlook: Assuming a win against faltering Chicago, the 4—2 divisonal record should guarantee a tie-breaking advantage against Atlanta, against the Giants the outlook is still in the air.  I think one of the 6—5 teams catches Green Bay, who takes the wildcard on a tiebreaker.

Broncos defeat Giants—The trouncing here serves several purposes. Denver puts itself in a wildcard driver’s seat if they can maintain it, while keeping pace to potentially catch San Diego. More importantly, they ended a four—game losing streak in dramatic fashion to stay in the divisional hunt. The Giants on the other hand, fall a game back of the wildcard and two back in the divisional race. An overtime win last week proved to be an aberration, not the beginning of a turnaround with the sizeable defeat.

The Giants have a tough remaining schedule including three consecutive divisional games, followed by the Panthers and Vikings. They will need to run the divisional games in order to take a tie—breaker advantage over Green Bay or Philadelphia. 

Outlook—Denver will have a hard time overcoming San Diego, but if they can perform like they did on Thanksgiving, they should hang onto a wildcard, thanks to the Steelers faltering.  The Giants are now outsiders, and a team still on the skids. I don’t think they have what is necessary to overcome the hole they are putting themselves in. The best I see for this team is 9-7.

Colts come back to take Texans—Indianapolis has the AFC nearly wrapped up with a three game advantage over any opposition. It would take something drastic just to lose home—field throughout the AFC championship. This game was far more important to Houston though. Dropping to 5-6 they are not eliminated, but have drastically reduced their odds. Nothing short of running the table will put them in the wildcard.

Outlook—Indianapolis will maintain its home-field advantage, Cincinnati’s loss against Oakland means this should not be particularly difficult. Houston has a somewhat favorable schedule, but I don’t see them pushing past 9-7, more likely they will lose to Jacksonville and end the year at 8-8… again.

Bengals top Browns—Defeating Cleveland by 9 points does not impress, but a Steelers loss coupled with this victory nearly ensures the division (due to the tie-breaker they hold a three game lead with five contests remaining). They also maintain pace for the number two seed and its accompanying bye. Should New England win both they and San Diego will remain behind Cincinnati despite all three reaching 8-3 because of a divisional loss each.

Outlook: The Pats schedule is tough enough to put them a game back of the Chargers and Bengals. This means the head—to—head in San Diego should be for the BYE. The Bengals physicality matches up well against San Diego, but if both teams play as they have been the last two weeks then San Diego with its home field advantage should win.

Eagles defeat Redskins—The Eagles maintain the edge in the wildcard race while staying one game behind the Cowboys. The loss to Dallas will be important both for the game behind it puts them, and for the tie breaking advantage it gives Dallas (thanks to the earlier Redskins loss.

Outlook: The final game against Dallas might end them with the same record if they can win, but the tiebreaker will favor Dallas and give them the division while Eagles head into the playoffs with the #5 slot.

Bills beat up on Dolphins—Miami was already an outsider to the playoff picture.  The Steelers and Jaguars losses keep Miami on the outskirts, but without Ronny Brown and the with the number of games dwindling, Miami will need a highly favorable chain of events to edge in.

Outlook: There are too many teams ahead and too many players on the sidelines keeps Miami out of the playoffs.

Jets pound Panthers—Like Miami, the New York Jets are still playoff longshots.  The win does serve to assuage some of the monster skid, but after all the fuss over the 3-0 start another 9-7 will disappoint.

Outlook: Jets put another nice win or two coupled with more big losses to go 8-8.

Falcons edge Buccaneers—Atlanta keeps itself in the playoff race by staying a game behind the Eagles and Packers. Should Ryan and Turner heal quickly they should go 10-6 or 9-7 depending on next week against Philadelphia.  Even at 10-6 they will need to fight tiebreaking procedure against the Packers and Eagles who should both be able to land at 10-6 as well. They should end up 3-3 divisionally whereas the Pack should end 4—2, putting the Eagles again as the question mark.

Outlook: Philly wins and takes a wildcard while Atlanta comes up just short.

Jaguars fall to 49ers—A win would have given Jacksonville a great advantage in the wildcard race after the Steelers/Ravens outcome. Now they share 6—5 records with the Steelers and Ravens, making the final wildcard a tossup at this point with any of the three a possible argument for the wildcard, and a Denver collapse still a possibility that could put two of the three in. 

Outlook: The Jags have made their living defeating lesser teams this year. They don’t have the firepower to get into the playoffs.  The winner of week the 16 Ravens/Steelers matchup gets the wildcard.

Titans top Cardinals—The Titans continue their improbable Rebirth while the Cardinals fail in an opportunity to put away the division fully. At 5-6 the Titans have ascended from the absolute cellar to the ranks of playoff outsider alongside Miami and New York.

Outlook: The Cards lost by three without Warner, not much real note of concern. They hang onto the division and benefit from the NFC East race to grab the #3 seed. Tennessee has impressed, but I still feel they get at least one loss and end up eliminated from the playoffs, 8-8 most likely.

Vikings trample Chicago—With the Packers continuing to win, there was still a small measure of need to maintain a lead. Now they have a four game advantage (tiebreaker) with five games remaining. This is essentially the clincher.  Chicago, while not mathematically eliminated is now all but finished, and will now be looking to salvage dignity.

Outlook: Chicago now will work to stay out of the top ten draft board while Minnesota keeps ahold of the #2 seed.  The battle for number one will shape up better after Monday.

Chargers capitalize on Chiefs mistakes—San Diego maintains its lead over a victorious Denver by putting up a thirty-point advantage over Kansas City (fresh off an upset over Pittsburgh).  They now are not only looking toward the fight for the AFC west, but eyeballing a second seed and the first round BYE it gives, keeping pace with the Bengals with an 8—3 record.

Outlook: San Diego hangs onto the division, the head—to—head with Cinci determines the #2 seed.

Ravens defeat Steelers—This game simultaneously put a struggling Ravens team back into the front of the playoff picture, while the Steelers plummet down to fighting tooth and nail for a spot in the playoffs. They now share a 6-5 record with the Jaguars, but the Steelers divisional record will not help them in this race.

Outlook: One of these two will overtake Jacksonville for the final playoff spot.  Pittsburgh’s health will decide which one of these two.

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