Malcolm Floyd Proving Some Concerns For San Diego Chargers

I think Malcolm Floyd is a great piece of the team, a great deep threat to compliment Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately, back when Chris Chambers was waived, I worried a bit that he was a great No. 3 guy and suited to the role of a true starter. 

His best asset is going up for jump balls, using size and a willingness to tangle in order to wrestle the ball away. Going against a nickel back, this is even more of an advantage he can make use of, whereas against good starters they can hinder him a bit more.

He is not a phenomenal route runner, or technically proficient, despite having many years in the team’s system. He is no Braylon Edwards, but drops a few balls that should stick. A defense has to account for him, but not worry the way they do about Anontio Gates or Jackson. Since taking over the starting duties his byline is:

2 catches 9 yards 1 TD

2 catches 64 yards

2 catches 29 yards

3 catches 45 yards

4 catches 38 yards

He needs to show me at least one game before the season is over where he can have a five receptions for 60 yards for me to feel the team does not need to pursue a different guy as the second option.  I love the four wideout look of Jackson, a good route running possession guy, Floyd, and Naanee.  A No. 5 guy is not necessary with Gates and Darren Sproles.

Some of this is of course opportunity, as Jackson/Gates eat much of the passing game attention, but with the improvement in certain areas where the team won’t need to focus as heartily this offseason as first thought (safety/middle linebacker), I think a true No. 2 guy would be a good option to look into this offseason.

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Some NFL MVP Dark Horses

While I won’t argue any of these players will be able to slide past the big three (Brees/Favre/Manning) for the MVP, I think these are some players who are in a good place to put together runs that could breach them into the top four or five beyond expectation.

Phillip Rivers: This will probably take a bit of flak as my ‘homer’ pick, and the better the Chargers are looking the more this is actually hurting his vote, as they aren’t relying on 300 yard games.  But show me a team that stayed alive more purely on the power of their quarterback’s arm earlier in the season. 

With a somewhat friendly final stretch of games, this team could easily earn a 12-4 record with increased relevance after being an afterthought the first half of the year.  He began the year putting up big touchdowns, nice yardage, and an average completion percentage. 

He lost some of the gaudy stats now that they have something resembling a running game, but has seen his completion percentage skyrocket.  To go with his 63.5 percent completion rate, he also has a 17:6 touchdown to interception ratio, doing a great job of protecting the ball.

Why he can’t win: His value to the team is great, but he won’t put up gaudy enough numbers and the team is growing more balanced. 

 

Kurt Warner: Continues to put up yards and TDs.  Whenever Leinart is asked to come in the game it becomes apparent that a good system and wideouts alone are not making the numbers.  With a weak running game and a hot-cold defense, Warner is (one game aside) the team’s most consistent force and leader.

The Cardinals looked shaky to start the year, but with the benefit of a friendly division, they have charged to a 7-3 record, no longer looking to be only an 8-8/9-7 squeak in on the power of their division alone.  The legitimizing of the team helps to legitimize Warner.

Why he can’t win: Missing at least one game won’t help.  He has good yardage and rating, but not top five in either.  He also ranks sixth with 11 interceptions, albeit it some consideration must be given to half coming in one miserable game.

 

Chris Johnson: He floats somewhere between candidate and dark horse, and probably has one of the better chances at an actual top three look, yet certain factors will force him from frontrunner to this page.  He is on pace for just shy of 2,000 yards ( 1,976) and is a primary reason for the Titans hurtling the cellar at present.

Why he can’t win: Despite a great pace, he is hit with two detraction’s.  One is the quarterback favor of voters.  A running back has the second best chance of winning, but that still is far lower.  More importantly will be his team’s record.  Despite a great run I see them landing at 8-8.  With over 5,000 yards last year Brees’ 8-8 record cost him the MVP, I think this will be the same case.

 

Elvis Dumervil: With all the attention on Jared Allen as the pass rushing monster, this guy is the league sack leader with 14 at present, a pace that could easily land him over 20.  The Broncos have exceeded all expectations especially with an array of new names on a defense not expected to do anything this year.  If the Broncos outpace San Diego for the division and Elvis can top 20 sacks, he could see his MVP stock take a sizeable boost.

Why he can’t win: It takes a miracle for a defensive player to win this award.  He is not a big media-grabber that would be a sexy sell (Jared Allen with 20 sacks on this Vikes team would probably have near double the chances).  Denver still has to work to avoid a collapse with only one win in the last five games.

 

Aaron Rodgers: He still holds the ball too long and several of the many sacks he’s eaten are his own fault.  Yet he is the third highest rated quarterback, with a great pace for yardage and TD’s, he looks to be top five in virtually every positive category while still protecting the ball (only five picks).  This team lacks the talent and run-support of other teams, and are now making themselves relevant again with a 7-2 record against teams not wearing purple.

Why he can’t win: Still don’t think the media Is really taking the Packers seriously yet.  Rodgers is responsible for a good portion of his interceptions, and his across the board statistical quality is just outpaced by the big three. 

 

Ben Roethlisberger: Despite the Steelers reputation as a defensive powerhouse that runs the football, they have relied more and more on big ben’s arm to put wins on the board.  He is top ten in every major category and has kept the team going with significant injuries and a declining running game. 

He has evolved from a ‘game manager’ who comes up at the right time to a bonafide pro bowl quarterback.  With his improvisational skills and ability to extend plays, he is the guy Cowboys fans hope Romo can evolve into.

Why he can’t win: The Bengals domination of the Steelers is a passing of the guard at least for this season.  With the Oakland upset now the Steelers are worrying more about making sure they hang onto the wildcard rather than what they can do with it.

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What the NFL Can Learn from Other Leagues

Originally an article about all sports (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/296692-what-professional-sports-leagues-can-learn-from-one-another ), I had to cut two of the sections short for length; so I figured I might embellish upon the notion within the specific sports at hand.

The NFL is having success while other sports are taking popularity hits. But there’s still room to improve.

Parity in the NFL seems to be doing its job fairly well. Playoff turnover tends to be great (that is, the number of teams in the playoffs that were not so the year prior).

After a bumpy start to the year, the half-dozen league dregs have proven themselves more able than one would have guessed two to three weeks ago (not powerhouses but at least competitive).

So where does the NFL need to improve? Here we take a page from the NBA.

A rookie wage scale would do wonders for a league where first round draft picks can command massive salaries that bog teams down for several years. If you whiff on a top three or four draft pick in the NFL, the hard salary cap means that team is unable to try to make itself competitive via the free agent market.

Unless a team has a specific player that they want without question, it is preferable to hold onto a fifth, sixth, or seventh round pick rather than one in the first three rounds.

This allows room for veterans to be signed, teams can pursue other options sooner if a player is not panning out, and teams do not feel burdened by a No. 1 pick. This means teams stuck in long term ruts (Raiders, Lions) are much better suited to turn things around and grow competitive.

A few underperforming veterans may gain some unwarranted salary bloat from this, but I would take that knock over $60 million for a guy to spend two years losing and two years riding the bench.

In addition to the idea of a rookie salary cap, I feel that taking some form of a minor league from MLB would be another good step. The practice squad is the closest thing right now football has.

Beyond this, once a player has finished college they either make the cut the first year or they have very little chance of ever making it into an NFL game. Should the UFL rise and grow more successful, it could have the potential to fill the void for ex-NFLers, guys who just missed the cut, and others.

It is hard to really picture a prop team maintaining a full 53+ man farm team but the UFL can make arrangements where perhaps they can be “loaned” practice squad players, in combination with their own means of acquiring players. This gives those players practical game experience, acts as a form of a minor/developmental league, and gives the UFL itself an extra source (albeit it prone to call-ups) of getting quality players to help foster a growing fan base.

This symbiosis seems the most practical variation of a minor league that would benefit both the NFL and the smaller league, as well as make it considerably less clunky than a true baseball-based farm system (something owners would never want to pump the required money into).

As a final afterthought, one that falls into the more personal wouldn’t-it-be-fun category more than a genuine way to improve the NFL, the notion of an NBA-esque draft lottery. The top ten picks are drawn at random with worst teams getting the best chance at the No. 1 overall pick.

Obviously, the odds have to favor the league’s worst team to get the No. 1 pick. Making it equal would be unfair to the teams at the lower end of the spectrum.

With this, however, things can move around and become fluid; a lucky draw with a team gaining three, four, even five spots could help spark interest from an apathetic fan base on a losing team. Instead of a team with, say, a No. 8 overall having to trade away a big chunk of draft picks or players to pick up just a few spots, watch them start out with a No. 4 and get who they actually want.

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Time for the NFL to Create Unit Awards

With all of the MVP talk in the NFL right now, with most of it boiling down to three quarterbacks, I have noticed certain other aspects mentioned that have no real chance of succeeding.

An article a few weeks back talked about it how it’s time to grant an Offensive Lineman an MVP award. This article sparked my interest. Now there is no way you can justify even the best left tackle in the business receiving the MVP. No matter how good he is, it all falls apart if the other four are performing poorly.

So we cannot award such players with significant awards by themselves. But why not add some unit-based awards in football?

A trophy going to the best offensive line for example and in these days of platoons the best backfield, as well as the best linebacking corps, etc.

Victories are what should be valued, not awards. Yet it would be nice to have an area where these guys can get their respect as a group and be recognized. It is not as exciting or sexy a draw as the focus on skill position guys, but it warrants some form of attention. 

One could even consolidate to “outstanding offensive unit” and “outstanding defensive unit” should you wish to avoid too many extra awards being handed out. This way the best secondary would be judged against the best linebacking corps, against the best defensive line, etc.

On offense, the only concern would be an urge to start rewarding skill positions again as the focus (either wideouts as a unit or running backs committees). 

Ultimately this attention to groups may help dissolve some of the urge for individual stat-masters, a la diva wide receivers, a side benefit to simply rewarding those groups that have greatly contributed to their team’s success. So why not make this a reality and give units the recognition they deserve?

 

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What Makes an NFL MVP?

 

As the NFL season starts ramping towards its playoff push, award conjectures start to crop up all over the place, especially in article-submitted locales such as Bleacher Report.  But what constitutes an MVP?  How are arguments and favorites created?  What is the ultimate deciding factor?

In other sports it can be much easier to discern, baseball mostly excuses pitchers from MVP voting because of the Cy Young (from 1987 to now only one, Dennis Eckersley in 1992).  We can therefore look to the combination of the same four stats each year to p decide it, it is about how a player handles himself at the plate—defense and quality of player interaction don’t weigh in heavily.  Basketball is similarly placed where an individual talent can be simply looked at statistically and probably determined without ever watching that fellow play.

Football is much tougher.  We know weight is given to offense before defense—though it is not impossible for a defensive player to win the award.  If things stand as they are at present, Elvis Dummervil of Denver is on pace for 20 1/3 sacks.  With a team not particularly thought of as a defensive juggernaut, to go with a better than expected team record, how come this name is not mentioned in MVP circles alongside Jared Allen (and his pace for 16.8 sacks)?  Allen is a great player, probably even a better player.  Yet with a superior supporting cast he has the weaker numbers.

Ahh well, let us ignore the sack-totals for now.  Tackles and interceptions are even more rarely used as a primary tool for deciding a league mvp.  This is understandable as the differences in separation have been much smaller.  Darren Sharper’s Seven picks are one behind the leader (Jairius Byrd of Buffalo), and his renaissance has been heavily factored into New Orleans defensive improvement. 

Tackles are even more difficult with seven guys in a span between 86 and 101 tackles at this point.  Though you rarely see the leaders Curtis Lofton (101) and Patrick Willis (96) in any mvp arguments.  So we can eliminate tackles as a probable source.

Ultimately the few names in the running on this side of the football just don’t have the absolutely gaudy statistics required to overcome the offensive bias in MVP voting.  If Darren Sharper keeps turning his picks into points all on his own, or Jared Allen makes use of his capacity for a monster single game, either one could dark horse into the top five, but none will do better than fourth this year.

Next we stride along to the flash and sizzle of what the NFL wants to sell—offense.  This is broken into passing yards/completion percentage/QB rating, receiving yards and receptions, rushing yards/yards per carry, and everyone shares that old favorite, the touchdown. 

It would be fine to leave it at that if the award was accredited to the most statistically superior player.  Peyton Manning is on pace for 5072 yard to end the year, Brett Favre leads quarterback rating at 112.1, touchdowns are a wash at this point with six guys between 20 and 22.  Assuming everyone keeps the same pace they are on it is a matter of Manning’s roughly 1,100 yard advantage (Favre is on pace for 3986) to Favre’s 9.4 point higher rating.  This gives Manning the MVP award from a pure statistical outlook.

Except we then have to cope with Chris Johnson and his pace for 1987 yards on the year.  As a player who is seeing his rushing totals going up, that could easily end up eclipsing 2,000 which would warrant a statistical argument on his behalf. 

The closest competition at running back is from Steven Jackson and Adrian Peterson, both looking to end around the 1,600 yard mark, not enough to dent Manning’s 5,000 or Johnson’s flirtation with 2,000. 

Reggie Wayne is the closest wideout statistically, on pace for 120 catches for nearly 1,600 yards with 12.8 TD’s.  Should he continue that pace he would statistically keep up with Johnson and Manning.

Now that we have narrowed it to basically three guys, we will take the cold hard facts and start molding them a la voting considerations with the less concrete factors.  The media darling-ness is factor number one.  Right now the ‘sexy’ teams are the Vikings and Saints, so we look to Jared Allen again, Adrian Peterson again, the silver fox himself, return to Sharper, and now must add Drew Brees into the equation.  Sharper is the instant elimination here, he is a great player but not the guy reporters jam mic’s in front of.

Jared Allen is very media friendly.  He is the only real chance at a defensive player getting league MVP because of this, Jared Allen sells.  Is this enough to outweigh the other factors, probably not but it will get him a few slots higher in total mvp voting than probably warranted.  Now we have Adrian Peterson. 

He is much more interesting to those with microphones and flashbulbs than Chris Johnson, the Vikes are the team everyone outside of cheeseland are rooting for, and he’s been ‘the guy’ in the purple palace for several years now. 

Favre, the final of the Minnesota trio, is media mecca.  Whether people love him or hate him, the guy would be a hot media sell even as an average player, throw in the inexplicable year no one would have guessed and you have the recipe for media frenzy.  While good sells, the biggest media hurdle in the way of AP or mr. mullet would be Favre, and beyond any other guy, wins the sexy pick here.

After the pure media rigamarole, we also must deal with the fact that past considerations weigh in on present seasons.  In the last twelve years there have been only two repeat mvp’s, and both times they were given the title as co-mvps.  Ironically two of the main names in consideration, Favre and Manning, are those two players. 

Favre’s distant MVP past and troubles last season serve as a benefit to him fro a historical regard.  Manning, with another MV award last year, will be hampered on this front.  He may also be hurt by the precedent an NFL first fourth MVP award would set. 

Drew Brees stands to be helped the most from his past season, where his 5,000 yards were mvp numbers yet he did not take home the award.  With media attention ramping up in New Orleans, it would appear he will be able to run close enough to the others in media attention and stats, that this one factor could tilt the bar his way. 

Record is another indicator used with MVP’s.  Drew Brees ended a monster personal season with an average 8-8 record, the result was a Peyton Manning award.  This year Chris Johnson looks to have the best chance of any non quarterback to take home the award, but his Titans are still working out of an 0-6 hole to start the year. 

8-8 will be a great accomplishment for the team at this point, but it will not help Chris Johnson’s case for the award.  Short of an undefeated 10-6, he falls by the wayside to quarterbacks helming teams looking at deep playoff runs.   The Saints, Vikings, and Colts have one loss among the entire group.  This astounding number puts in squarely back into the court of Favre/Brees/Manning.

The final, most subjective matter is where would the team be without them ? Given an average replacement guy taking the helm, what would the team do?  A name not mentioned yet here, but probably going to crack the top five- Tom Brady, is a good example. 

He is a great leader and valuable of course.  But if the Patriots go 12-4 this year pundits will hurt his chances with the idea that he only improved the team by one win.  Favre is simultaneously helped and hindered by last year. 

team will likely improve by a minimum of three games (10-6 to 13-3) probably four.  This is significant (and something Brady cannot do).  But they still were a division winning playoff team last year with Jackson behind center.  The Saints had Drew Brees (and basically the same receiving corps) and put together an 8-8 season. 

Peyton Manning is the wildcard.  Everything about Indi without him is subjective, he didn’t play elsewhere, he didn’t miss time, and the Colts did fine last year.  Yet one must contend that with one team sporting three candidates, neither one of those three is quite as indispensible.  With a host of injuries and a turnover at head coach, Manning has continued his winning ways.  I do not think a Matt Cassel situation happens in Indi with Peyton Manning on the bench. 

Ultimately I think the race will be close between Manning/Brees/and Favre, none of the non-quarterbacks possibilities have enough to catch up to the value (as well as mvp positional bias) that these three present.  When it all wraps up, Favre will win comeback player of the year as an attempt at making up for Peyton Manning edging out Drew Brees for his fourth MVP award. 

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San Diego Chargers Hitting the Right Notes

The Chargers now five game winning streak has been great cause for optimism.  With the Bengals laying an egg against Oakland, the team not only finds themselves back in the division lead a game ahead of the reeling Broncos, but now in a three way tie for that second seed, and the first round bye that accompanies it.

My faith in San Diego is growing in leaps and bounds, not because of the winning streak but how they have done it.  My worry just after the last Raiders game (with the Chargers sitting at 4-3 and Denver at 6-1) was not the team’s capacity to win, but their capacity to win big games against big teams.

They had a solid final nine, with the Giants, Eagles, Denver (at the time still a force), Dallas (in the middle of their Miles Austin power-run), and Cinci.  I figured they would need at least two of those game to earn a playoff spot, probably three to fight for the division.

They have already fulfilled the three of the five tough games criteria with their first three games, dropping the Giants and Eagles before thrashing Denver.  Now they look at a run of the Chiefs (albeit with a little added swagger after the Pitt head scratcher), Browns, and Redskins mixed in with the much more human-looking variations of Dallas and Cinci. 

In fact, I’d go out on a limb and say the most dangerous game is not going to be against either listed above, but the resurgent Titans fighting for respect. 

On the team’s to do lists for me to really get excited over this team after week eight:

A. Defeat better than .500 team—Check, week nine Giants.

B. Put together back to back wins (I didn’t count the Chiefs/Raiders pair as such)—Check, weeks nine-11.

C. Come out take a lead and hold it—Check, somewhat week 10, more week 11.

D. Add some dimension to the team—Check as follows:

That dimension is what excites me.  The team now proves they can get after an opposing team’s offense in a much more aggressive way (first five games- four picks, seven sacks; last five games- six picks, twenty sacks).

And now they are finally developing the running game.  Ninety-six yards by LT was a start against the Eagles, but the Denver match, with its two hundred and three team yards rushing, showcased a missing element for the team.  This was done by a method that I am somewhat baffled the team had not really pursued to this point: all four backs getting at least seven carries. 

During LT’s injury and recovery the team tried to ride Sproles instead of platoon the remaining backs and spread the load.  With LT still not as dynamic as he once was (his yardage totals have solidified but he still can’t seem to break that four yard a carry barrier). 

The team gave him 20 carries, Sproles nine, and seven apiece to Hester and Tolbert.  The lightning bug has continued his less than stellar season taking handoffs but Hester and Tolbert put up 6.6 and 8.3 yards per carry respectively.  With a team lacking goal-line and short yardage punch, it is good to see the team trying out the rock in these guys’ hands (both of whom are much better suited to those frequent straight up the gut plays).

Rivers no longer has to do it all, and that will benefit the team in the long run.  If they can continue to expound upon the improved running game and harass opposing offenses they will be able to start to run with some of the big teams in the playoffs.

As good as Rivers has been, I was not altogether confident that the team could go places on his arm alone.  This team is not flawless, but no one is, especially this year, so good luck and go Chargers.

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Wild NFL Weekend Muddles Playoff Picture

As the first half of the NFL season flips over to the second, generally playoff races start to clarify.

Not necessarily what all six playoff spots per conference will end up being, but you usually start seeing the front runners start cropping up while other teams fall by the wayside. 

The good teams begin winning the games they are supposed to win, while the under-talented overachievers have their shortcomings catch up with them. As of right now, Week 10 served to turn a number of playoff races on their ears instead and make things even more confusing. This is especially true in the NFC, where a 9-7 team may just have a shot at that 6th seed at this point. Here’s a look at how the games of this week affected the playoff outlook (omitting irrelevant games, a la the Lions/Vikings outcome).

 

Chicago Loses to San Francisco

This game served a dual purpose.  While it left both teams with the same record (4-5), it served a punch in the gut to Chicago’s chances at the playoffs while bringing San Francisco back to the outskirts of the hunt.

Had the win gone the other way around, Chicago would have had just as good a chance as anybody in a crowded 5-4 pack and San Francisco would have been essentially eliminated at 3-6. I would be shocked if either of these two ends up with a wildcard; however, they are still close enough that some major faltering by certain teams and a big run by either will eke by. 

 

Dolphins Defeat Buccaneers

While this one won’t be chalked up to upset like many of the games, it does allow Miami a glimpse of playoff hope. With one wildcard probably going to the Steelers, the AFC’s sixth seed will still need a 10-6 record to make it in. Miami has some confidence, having caused problems in their division (win or lose) and quarterback Chad Henne is developing well.

Had it gone the other way around Miami would essentially be eliminated (given the second half schedule with two powerhouses and several resurgent teams the necessary 6-2 run would take a miracle; they could easily end the season as one of the most competitive sub-.500 teams ever). Tampa winning would have done nothing but help them with some 2010 optimism. 

 

Jaguars Top Jets

This was an either/or game for both.  The Jets are now very much outsiders in the AFC wildcard race, behind five teams (assuming Ravens win tonight) and with all the early momentum a distant memory. Needing a win to stay relevant, they fell short. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has overcome the Week Five horror (losing to Seattle 41-0 to drop to 2-3) to put themselves back on the playoff radar. With their present schedule, Week 13 against Houston could very easily determine the sixth seed in the AFC.

Had it gone the other way you could essentially just flip the initial statement as the record and momentum would have flipped that way. It would probably serve to take both out of the race, however, since the Jets have a much tougher schedule then Jacksonville, facing the Bengals, Patriots, Panthers, Colts, and Falcons. Just two losses would be asking a lot from that batch. 

 

Bengals Defeat Steelers

This is one of the few games that served to shape the playoff outlook instead of muddy it up. With what amounts to a two-game lead over the Steelers (holding the tiebreaker), Cinci is in the driver’s seat for the division, playing only two teams with winning records the rest of the way. The Steelers have a relatively modest schedule as well, and picking up a game on Cinci is quite possible; but it will be tough to gain two on the Bengals at this point. Instead they look to be a very scary wildcard.

Had it gone the other way, the Steelers would have had a one-game advantage. It would have essentially kept the race much tighter since the Steelers have both Ravens games remaining and a split would give Cincinnati the tie-breaker. 

 

Titans Defeat Bills

This one is borderline relevant, and impacts the offseason more than the playoff race.  That being said, technically the Titans now have a vague outside look at the playoffs with three games of momentum and a revitalized feel. The reality is they still aren’t quite good enough to run the table (especially with a potent schedule that includes the Colts, Chargers, Texans, Cardinals, and even the Dolphins). The Buffalo game being the start of a 6-2 second half run is great for optimism towards 2010, but 9-7 still falls short.

Had it gone the other way: The Titans still have a chance at some good feelings going into the offseason, but don’t even have the luxury of a fool’s hope at the playoffs.  Buffalo goes from playing for their jobs the rest of this season to holding out some faint playoff hope at 4-5.  More importantly it takes a little momentum away from the Titans, which might make them a touch easier for teams like the Chargers and Texans whose playoff hopes could easily hinge on single wins and losses.

 

Redskins Defeat Broncos

Another shocker.  The Broncos looked to halt a skid that could be attributed to running into the monster that is the AFC North, making their two losses a simple blip on the radar and keeping San Diego at arm’s length for the divisional crown. This was the perfect opponent to get back on track against a 2-6 team bordering on a fanbase mutiny. The Broncos are now tied with San Diego at 6-3, and will need a great showing next Sunday when they go head to head with the Chargers (who have the opposite momentum of a four game winning streak). 

Had it gone the other way, Denver would still have a fight with San Diego, but could afford to drop next week and still be safe in the divisional race. As well as have a stranglehold on a wildcard seed should they lose.  Now the Broncos (with games against the Chargers, Colts, Eagles, and Giants) face the very real possibility of another second half flop.

 

Panthers Top Falcons

This one goes along with the Denver and Green Bay games to have the biggest impact on mixing up the playoff race. The Falcons were 5-3, and a very solid bet to snag one of the wildcard berths, being trapped behind the undefeated Saints.  Instead they have slipped in amongst a large pack of teams, all within one game of .500, and are suffering a momentum lapse with three losses in four games. The Panthers, in the meantime, have clawed their way back to the playoff race with victories against the Cardinals and Falcons, sandwiching a no-shame loss to the Saints. With a very strong final stretch, the Panthers will need to make the most of the three winnable games coming up.

Had it gone the other way, the Falcons, at 6-3, would have been in a tremendous position to grab one of the two wildcard berths with the best record among non division leaders in the NFC. They would also be carrying a two game winning streak to shake off the back to back losses they suffered just prior. The Panthers would have been basically out of the hunt and looking to play spoiler instead of fighting for their lives.

 

Chargers Top Eagles

The Chargers have now rode the momentum of four consecutive wins to a tie with Denver at 6-3, just in time for a head to head matchup next week that could easily decide the division.  Provided Denver makes a rebound and can hold on to the division, San Diego is also the frontrunner for the last wildcard berth.  The Eagles loss does not sting as much as it could have, thanks to the Giants bye and Cowboys loss, but like most of the NFC outcomes, it creates a crowded grouping within a game of .500.

Had it gone the other way, San Diego would be facing a lot of pressure to keep pace with Denver (despite the Bronco’s losing streak) going into the head-to-head matchup.  They would also be hovering with the cluster of sixth-seed hopefuls rather than a notch ahead. The Eagles would have moved into a tie with Dallas at 6-3, looking at a solid hold on a playoff spot.

 

Saints Win Against Rams

The result on paper, Saints win and Rams lose, does nothing to alter anyone’s ideas going into the playoffs.  The questions raised come from how a team from the bottom half-dozen of the league could keep pace and make it a game with the powerhouse Saints. This was supposed to be a blowout, not a five point game. With chinks showing in the armor, New Orleans needs to stay on its toes to maintain. The division is not a concern; neither is gaining a first round bye. But home field for the NFC championship game is. The Vikes have a little bit of an easier schedule, and are gaining momentum while New Orleans is faltering a little.

Had it gone the other way, the home-field momentum clearly would have shifted towards cold country, and the Saints would have stared at a likely drop to third in most people’s power rankings. Beyond that, and a little embarrassment, it had no real effect on who makes the playoffs.

 

Green Bay Downs Dallas

The Packers looked like they were about to fall off a cliff after letting Tampa Bay scratch out its first win. Dallas seemed to be a team with a powerhouse run for the playoffs, holding a commanding divisional lead. Now they have returned to scuffling for the division. Green Bay has not merely awakened their playoff chances; the Atlanta/Chicago/Philly outcomes put them in a good position as the only 5-4 team building off a win.

Had it gone the other way, calls for Mike McCarthy’s head would have grown to a roar while Green Bay’s playoff chances would have dulled with the declining momentum. They would have only been a game back of the front runners, but lacking the confidence to make a run. Dallas would have been in control of the NFC East with a two game lead going down to the wire. 

 

Patriots Fall to Colts

This one serves as more of a playoff definer than having any effect on the actual race.  The Colts can take away momentum and confidence after topping the Pats. New England’s gathering momentum riding what would have been a four game winning streak would have put them into many arguments for best in the AFC and given them a great chance at that first round bye. As it stands, the Colts and Bengals (and arguably the Steelers) look to be the better teams.  

 

Cardinals Defeat Seahawks

This one only gets brief mention as it quashes any hopes the victorious 49ers might have had about making a divisional run and carving up the faint playoff chances Seattle held onto.

 

Predictions

In the NFC I will stand by my guesses of the Eagles and Falcons for the wildcard, albeit much less confidently.  I don’t know that Dallas will hold onto the division, nor that the Packers, Giants, or even a 4-5 team, will edge in. 

In the AFC I feel safer hanging onto most of my choices. San Diego will regain their division crown, the Steelers will hold the fifth seed, and the Texans will grab the sixth.  Either way, the next two weeks will be especially telling; any team grabbing back to back wins will begin to separate from the pack, and any that drop both will fall by the wayside. At this rate, I wouldn’t be surprised if everyone but Indy and N’awlins went 1-1 to keep the whole thing murky.

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Wild NFL Weekend Muddles Playoff Picture

As the first half of the NFL season flips over to the second, generally playoff races start to clarify.

Not necessarily what all six playoff spots per conference will end up being, but you usually start seeing the front runners start cropping up while other teams fall by the wayside. 

The good teams begin winning the games they are supposed to win, while the under-talented overachievers have their shortcomings catch up with them. As of right now, Week 10 served to turn a number of playoff races on their ears instead and make things even more confusing. This is especially true in the NFC, where a 9-7 team may just have a shot at that 6th seed at this point. Here’s a look at how the games of this week affected the playoff outlook (omitting irrelevant games, a la the Lions/Vikings outcome).

 

Chicago Loses to San Francisco

This game served a dual purpose.  While it left both teams with the same record (4-5), it served a punch in the gut to Chicago’s chances at the playoffs while bringing San Francisco back to the outskirts of the hunt.

Had the win gone the other way around, Chicago would have had just as good a chance as anybody in a crowded 5-4 pack and San Francisco would have been essentially eliminated at 3-6. I would be shocked if either of these two ends up with a wildcard; however, they are still close enough that some major faltering by certain teams and a big run by either will eke by. 

 

Dolphins Defeat Buccaneers

While this one won’t be chalked up to upset like many of the games, it does allow Miami a glimpse of playoff hope. With one wildcard probably going to the Steelers, the AFC’s sixth seed will still need a 10-6 record to make it in. Miami has some confidence, having caused problems in their division (win or lose) and quarterback Chad Henne is developing well.

Had it gone the other way around Miami would essentially be eliminated (given the second half schedule with two powerhouses and several resurgent teams the necessary 6-2 run would take a miracle; they could easily end the season as one of the most competitive sub-.500 teams ever). Tampa winning would have done nothing but help them with some 2010 optimism. 

 

Jaguars Top Jets

This was an either/or game for both.  The Jets are now very much outsiders in the AFC wildcard race, behind five teams (assuming Ravens win tonight) and with all the early momentum a distant memory. Needing a win to stay relevant, they fell short. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has overcome the Week Five horror (losing to Seattle 41-0 to drop to 2-3) to put themselves back on the playoff radar. With their present schedule, Week 13 against Houston could very easily determine the sixth seed in the AFC.

Had it gone the other way you could essentially just flip the initial statement as the record and momentum would have flipped that way. It would probably serve to take both out of the race, however, since the Jets have a much tougher schedule then Jacksonville, facing the Bengals, Patriots, Panthers, Colts, and Falcons. Just two losses would be asking a lot from that batch. 

 

Bengals Defeat Steelers

This is one of the few games that served to shape the playoff outlook instead of muddy it up. With what amounts to a two-game lead over the Steelers (holding the tiebreaker), Cinci is in the driver’s seat for the division, playing only two teams with winning records the rest of the way. The Steelers have a relatively modest schedule as well, and picking up a game on Cinci is quite possible; but it will be tough to gain two on the Bengals at this point. Instead they look to be a very scary wildcard.

Had it gone the other way, the Steelers would have had a one-game advantage. It would have essentially kept the race much tighter since the Steelers have both Ravens games remaining and a split would give Cincinnati the tie-breaker. 

 

Titans Defeat Bills

This one is borderline relevant, and impacts the offseason more than the playoff race.  That being said, technically the Titans now have a vague outside look at the playoffs with three games of momentum and a revitalized feel. The reality is they still aren’t quite good enough to run the table (especially with a potent schedule that includes the Colts, Chargers, Texans, Cardinals, and even the Dolphins). The Buffalo game being the start of a 6-2 second half run is great for optimism towards 2010, but 9-7 still falls short.

Had it gone the other way: The Titans still have a chance at some good feelings going into the offseason, but don’t even have the luxury of a fool’s hope at the playoffs.  Buffalo goes from playing for their jobs the rest of this season to holding out some faint playoff hope at 4-5.  More importantly it takes a little momentum away from the Titans, which might make them a touch easier for teams like the Chargers and Texans whose playoff hopes could easily hinge on single wins and losses.

 

Redskins Defeat Broncos

Another shocker.  The Broncos looked to halt a skid that could be attributed to running into the monster that is the AFC North, making their two losses a simple blip on the radar and keeping San Diego at arm’s length for the divisional crown. This was the perfect opponent to get back on track against a 2-6 team bordering on a fanbase mutiny. The Broncos are now tied with San Diego at 6-3, and will need a great showing next Sunday when they go head to head with the Chargers (who have the opposite momentum of a four game winning streak). 

Had it gone the other way, Denver would still have a fight with San Diego, but could afford to drop next week and still be safe in the divisional race. As well as have a stranglehold on a wildcard seed should they lose.  Now the Broncos (with games against the Chargers, Colts, Eagles, and Giants) face the very real possibility of another second half flop.

 

Panthers Top Falcons

This one goes along with the Denver and Green Bay games to have the biggest impact on mixing up the playoff race. The Falcons were 5-3, and a very solid bet to snag one of the wildcard berths, being trapped behind the undefeated Saints.  Instead they have slipped in amongst a large pack of teams, all within one game of .500, and are suffering a momentum lapse with three losses in four games. The Panthers, in the meantime, have clawed their way back to the playoff race with victories against the Cardinals and Falcons, sandwiching a no-shame loss to the Saints. With a very strong final stretch, the Panthers will need to make the most of the three winnable games coming up.

Had it gone the other way, the Falcons, at 6-3, would have been in a tremendous position to grab one of the two wildcard berths with the best record among non division leaders in the NFC. They would also be carrying a two game winning streak to shake off the back to back losses they suffered just prior. The Panthers would have been basically out of the hunt and looking to play spoiler instead of fighting for their lives.

 

Chargers Top Eagles

The Chargers have now rode the momentum of four consecutive wins to a tie with Denver at 6-3, just in time for a head to head matchup next week that could easily decide the division.  Provided Denver makes a rebound and can hold on to the division, San Diego is also the frontrunner for the last wildcard berth.  The Eagles loss does not sting as much as it could have, thanks to the Giants bye and Cowboys loss, but like most of the NFC outcomes, it creates a crowded grouping within a game of .500.

Had it gone the other way, San Diego would be facing a lot of pressure to keep pace with Denver (despite the Bronco’s losing streak) going into the head-to-head matchup.  They would also be hovering with the cluster of sixth-seed hopefuls rather than a notch ahead. The Eagles would have moved into a tie with Dallas at 6-3, looking at a solid hold on a playoff spot.

 

Saints Win Against Rams

The result on paper, Saints win and Rams lose, does nothing to alter anyone’s ideas going into the playoffs.  The questions raised come from how a team from the bottom half-dozen of the league could keep pace and make it a game with the powerhouse Saints. This was supposed to be a blowout, not a five point game. With chinks showing in the armor, New Orleans needs to stay on its toes to maintain. The division is not a concern; neither is gaining a first round bye. But home field for the NFC championship game is. The Vikes have a little bit of an easier schedule, and are gaining momentum while New Orleans is faltering a little.

Had it gone the other way, the home-field momentum clearly would have shifted towards cold country, and the Saints would have stared at a likely drop to third in most people’s power rankings. Beyond that, and a little embarrassment, it had no real effect on who makes the playoffs.

 

Green Bay Downs Dallas

The Packers looked like they were about to fall off a cliff after letting Tampa Bay scratch out its first win. Dallas seemed to be a team with a powerhouse run for the playoffs, holding a commanding divisional lead. Now they have returned to scuffling for the division. Green Bay has not merely awakened their playoff chances; the Atlanta/Chicago/Philly outcomes put them in a good position as the only 5-4 team building off a win.

Had it gone the other way, calls for Mike McCarthy’s head would have grown to a roar while Green Bay’s playoff chances would have dulled with the declining momentum. They would have only been a game back of the front runners, but lacking the confidence to make a run. Dallas would have been in control of the NFC East with a two game lead going down to the wire. 

 

Patriots Fall to Colts

This one serves as more of a playoff definer than having any effect on the actual race.  The Colts can take away momentum and confidence after topping the Pats. New England’s gathering momentum riding what would have been a four game winning streak would have put them into many arguments for best in the AFC and given them a great chance at that first round bye. As it stands, the Colts and Bengals (and arguably the Steelers) look to be the better teams.  

 

Cardinals Defeat Seahawks

This one only gets brief mention as it quashes any hopes the victorious 49ers might have had about making a divisional run and carving up the faint playoff chances Seattle held onto.

 

Predictions

In the NFC I will stand by my guesses of the Eagles and Falcons for the wildcard, albeit much less confidently.  I don’t know that Dallas will hold onto the division, nor that the Packers, Giants, or even a 4-5 team, will edge in. 

In the AFC I feel safer hanging onto most of my choices. San Diego will regain their division crown, the Steelers will hold the fifth seed, and the Texans will grab the sixth.  Either way, the next two weeks will be especially telling; any team grabbing back to back wins will begin to separate from the pack, and any that drop both will fall by the wayside. At this rate, I wouldn’t be surprised if everyone but Indy and N’awlins went 1-1 to keep the whole thing murky.

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A Midseason Look at the San Diego Chargers.

As much as I love to read the A, A-, B+, report card style of rating usually seen around these types of articles, I just can’t bring myself to go that route.  Instead, let’s look at the various positions of San Diego on a more analytical playing field and see how they stack up sans grades.

Quarterback: Not much to say here, Rivers is presently THE face of the San Diego Chargers.  His yardage and touchdowns are staying at their usual pace while his interception rate has slid down from prior years.  The Chargers have probably the best deep-ball game in the NFL.  Having three 6’5’’ receivers helps, but the canon-arm of Rivers is what puts those balls downfield.

If I can give one caveat it would be a little more touch in the short yardage passing game.  The playcalling doesn’t really showcase that aspect enough to get a major view, but he can occasionally rifle the ball a little more than is necessary on short passes. 

Final Verdict: The guy’s a pro-bowler and easily the team MVP.

Receivers:  Vincent Jackson has established himself as elite this year.  He has had a great vertical game for awhile now, but I am glad that now we are seeing game of five to eight catches for sixty to one-hundred yards.  These less flashy, more stable games show a player rounding out his overall game, that’s something to feel good about. 

Malcolm Floyd has shown flashes, especially with big play potential, enough that Chris Chambers became expendable.  He is putting up a massive 21.5 yards per catch yet for all that he only has 13 catches for 280 yards.  He is a bigger threat than Chambers was, but I feel he’s much better suited to third on the depth chart.  He is great pulling out a jump ball on long tosses, but needs to develop other elements of his game. 

Legedu Naanee is the only other significant receiver on the team, he does not have nearly the yardage Floyd can put up, but to me has more upside.  He is not considered a downfield threat, but is very good after the catch, a good screen-pass runner, and highly versatile.  He has the feel to me of a marquee slot receiver who will have a hard time getting utilized to his full potential because of the capabilities of Sproles and Gates in the passing game. 

Final Verdict: I would like to find a big sure handed No. 2 guy in the offseason so Floyd can assume his more natural third banana role (splitting that gig with Naanee).  If not one more depth guy would be nice since I think Davis is gone in the offseason.  With that said the number two wideout on this team will always be the third option anyway, so the team should perform fine with the troika they have now. 

 

Tight Ends: A couple big drops last game notwithstanding, Gates is on pace to match his career best 2005 season (TDs notwithstanding).  He is presently second among tight ends (behind Dallas Clark) and thirteenth among all receivers. 

Manumaleuna is what he is, a bullmoose of a blocking tight end who doesn’t do much in the passing game.  He has yet to get his one or two surprise TDs he is usually good for, though Kris Wilson snagged one such last game.  The decline of the running game has taken his impact away some, but he is still a monster at the line of scrimmage.

Final Verdict: While they aren’t exactly a big depth team here, the top two are among the best at their respective duties. 

 

O-Line: They have been hampered by injuries, especially another significant one to Nick Hardwick (the guy’s a great anchor if he can ever get on the field).  They have done an acceptable job in pass protection, ranking in the dead middle of the league with 18 sacks allowed, respectable considering Rivers has the mobility of a rusted cement truck and the team likes to go vertical often. 

The running game is a different story.  The inexperience of the line really shows here.  They rarely get any push against opposing defensive lines, and when asked to pull or take on linebackers not immediately in front of them they miss assignments and look to be in a fog.  Mruczcowski is a fine depth guy getting asked to do too much with Hardwick’s time on the sidelines.  Clary is another guy who would make for a fine sixth lineman, but overmatched as a starter.  Vasquez is rough but shows promise, McNeil is the one stabilizing factor. 

Final Verdict: A healthy Hardwick and a starting right tackle are going to top my offseason wishlist.  As long as Rivers has the ball the current line will be adequate, but regardless of who is taking handoffs there are no holes opening up.

 

Defensive Line: The loss of big Jamal and Ryon Bingham sent this unit into a tailspin.  The collection of unsigned and waiver-wire tackles have shown enough to get by, but are still a glaring weakness as opposing running games have put up big yardage on this unit. 

The troika of Castillo/Cesaire/Boone have fared better.  They only have 5 sacks between them, but in a 3-4 they are not looked at to generate the quarterback pressure so much as open up space for linebackers to smash through.  As they have gotten healthy the production from Merriman and Phillips has improved.  As long as they are healthy they are a decent group that serves the 3-4 well, but these guys are more respectable then awe-inspiring.

Final Verdict: Health has decimated this unit more than any other, because of this they are being steamrolled by running attacks.  They have shown signs of progress as of late, but still continue to give up over 100 yards a game on the ground.

Linebackers: Hard to tell with this unit.  The middle linebackers have had a hard time with injuries. However when healthy I feel grouping of Cooper, Dobbins, Burnett, and Siler make for a good quartet.  I was much less comfortable with this group in the offseason, and feel that they have the making of a good steady unit, solid enough that offseason focus can worry about other concerns.

The outside linebackers are much more difficult to peg.  They have now racked up 11 sacks between the big three (or half a sack more than Jared Allen).  Nine of those eleven have come in the last three weeks (and seven in the last two).  Is this a trend of a pass rush finally ‘figuring it out’ or a nice little hot streak that will cool back to normal.  Best guess is somewhere in between. 

Coverage has been a little tighter and the defensive line a little more stable.  This is buying that extra second or so needed to break through.  Merriman is still not the monster of 2007, but is no longer invisible at least. 

Larry English looks good for an unpolished rookie.  He is not quite as explosive as vintage Merriman but does a great job at disruption with a few batted passes to go with his two sacks.  I think unless the price is right English has shown enough potential to make Merriman’s impending free agency weather-able.

Final Verdict: After a terrible start to the year the linebacking corps is shaping back into a solid unit.  If the middle linebackers can get healthy and the outside linebackers make the last few games a trend rather than a stat-enhancing blip on the radar, this unit should be in a good position for the second half.

 

Defensive Backs: As a team the Chargers are middle of the road with eight picks, and the only guy with more than one (Antoine Cason) had both of his after the first two weeks and presently lost the starting Nickel Back position to Steven Gregory. 

Jammer is reliable as always, never a big turnover forcer he is a very good tackler and solid cover guy.  Cromartie suffered through the early stages of the season, and whispers for Cason to take over began to mix into the fold. 

Instead Cason has slipped a spot in the depth chart and Cromartie, while not the dynamo of 2007, is doing well enough to keep his post.  They have not been flashy, but several of the teams recent rash of sacks have come because QB’s have been forced to hold the ball longer having no open receivers. 

The safety position looks much better right now.  Clinton Hart is long gone and will not be missed.  Kevin Ellison is not the next Troy Polomalu, but he is a solid tackler and has steadied one of the team’s consistently weakest positions the last few years. 

Eric Weddle and Steven Gregory round out a troika that has quietly gelled into a nice group.  They don’t instill fear in opposing teams, but are solid enough that the position has slid way down my offseason wish list, affording opportunity for the team to pursue other greater needs.  Paul Oliver, the fourth safety, sees more playing time then he should and is not a particular asset.

Final Verdict: The San Diego defense is presently giving up the fourth fewest passing yards per game.  Some of this is a bi-product of their inability to stop the run coupled with some opponents without passing games (two Raiders and a Dolphins game) and some is genuine improvement. 

If the team can maintain the coverage-pass rush symbiosis of late the unit will continue to look good.  Whether it can be enough to augment the run-defense (without Jamal it will continue to be a weakness regardless of improvement) will be the big question as to how this unit performs.

 

Special Teams: Sproles is a versatile and elusive return man.  While quick he doesn’t have the pure sprinter’s speed of some.  His return game rates middle of the pack on kick returns, but shoots up to fourth in punt return average.  One aspect he will need to work on is the occasional tendency to have trouble with the ball in the return game.  Do date he has not coughed up the ball too much, but those minor slip ups give an extra second or two for coverage teams to get downfield, costing yardage.

The coverage unit on special teams has been far weaker.  Opposing return men have put big yardage up against the team, and a couple Nick Kaeding tackles are the only reason there aren’t more TD’s against on the books.  This unit needs to sharpen its game considerably.  In contrast Kaeding and Scifres have both been their usual quality selves, with Scifres having probably the best location among nfl punters.

Final Verdict:  Scifres and Kaeding are excellent and Sproles is a dangerous return threat, yet overall sloppy play has caused this team to give up far too much field position to opposing return men.

 

Playcalling: This is a weak point on the team to me.  The running game has not executed; this is not entirely on the men with the microphones yet you can place blame that they have yet to adjust the style of run calling.  The offensive playcalling is exceedingly predictable, dialing up a run between the tackles on first down far too often for a team that cannot run. 

The passing game has been successful, yet here they are once again not given anything creative and have put up the numbers they have on pure out-execution of opposing defenses. 

I would love to see this team grant more emphasis on a short yardage passing game to augment the run and open more of the field to the passing game.  A perfect example was the Giants game, where LT began in his usual position, then split wide got the catch and scampered for a first down. 

These plays force defenses into guesswork and try to adjust to what the Chargers are doing.  Right now defenses do not need to make any adjustments from first to fourth quarter because the team does the exact same thing regardless of situation.

Defensive playcalling has improved of late.  They have grown more aggressive on the blitz, after a fairly passive man coverage scheme at the outset of the season.  Ellison’s capacity as a big strong safety takes some coverage speed away, but makes like a smallish linebacker when blitzing in run defense or pass rush. 

I would rather the team continue to be a little aggressive and take chances instead of the passive approach that allowed teams to chip away down the field.  With a mediocre run defense this team needs to be dynamic and aggressive to force takeaways or negative yardage whenever possible. 

Final Verdict: The offense has put points on the board yet had occasional red zone struggles stemming from a poor running game and predictable playcalling.  Should the team open things up and grow more creative they could be very dangerous and keep defenses on their heels.  Ron Rivera on the converse seems to be finally dialing in the right style for this team, ramping up the pressure with more blitzes and better pursuit.  They still have trouble getting off the field on third down, but look to be moving in the right direction.

 

Ultimately:

The team is 5-3, considerable improvement over this point last year despite a critical injury to Jamal Williams and no running game.  If the defense continues to make progress and the offense gets a little more creative good things can come to pass.  That’s the good news. 

The bad news is only one victory against a winning team (and that winning team is in a power slide), as well as a very tough second half schedule with games against the Eagles, Cowboys, Broncos, Bengals, and apparently rejuvenated Titans.  They will need to build on this three game winning streak and continue to improve if they want to make a run and take the division.

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Reasons for Guarded Optimism in San Diego

There’s a lot to come away with from this last Charger’s game, some good, some bad, and some floating around somewhere between.

That having been said, the bottom line most important thing is this: the Chargers beat their first significant team on the road yesterday. The Giants are in a bit of a slide and did some foot-shooting to help out. However, this is the first time San Diego really has something to hang their hat on.

They are now two games over .500 for the first time since 2007, and despite the Dolphins still holding a losing record, the Miami win looks a little better on paper now. To go with this, QB Phillip Rivers showed continued leadership skills and quality in directing a game winning touchdown drive with little time to work with after having been suffocated the entire second half.

Vincent Jackson also showed his quality, with a five catch two touchdown performance.  Yardage is great, but I like seeing some of these less flashy, more stable games where he doesn’t have a forty yard snag to inflate things. True fantasy owners may not care for the showings as much, but it bears witness to a rounded go-to-guy instead of a pure deep threat. Jackson looks more like a franchise guy every time I see him.

You can also take away from this game five more sacks on QB Eli Manning: with a team that had struggled to get pressure on the quarterback all last year and the first five games of this year—that is significant. This is a true pro-quarterback, and getting him to the ground is a better achievement then putting a slow-firing Jamarcus Russell in the dirt. To go with this, no runner went over 70 yards this game, something else to take away.

Now for the mixed bag look. I came away with more concerns then confidence following the Raider game. This one leaned closer to the favorable side; however you still have to look at a few major concerns:

 

Running the Football

LT was given a few well-earned cheers for his two TDs against Oakland. That having been said, he averaged 2.5 yards a carry when you took those two runs off his byline. This game, without a pair of significant runs to help his stats, he averaged 1.8 yards with the football. I don’t put all of the blame on him: the line has done a poor job run-blocking regardless of who’s in the backfield and this game it was a fairly significant D-line stacking up against him.

With that said, what worries me more are the few plays where he had space and couldn’t capitalize. One came off the left tackle where he made a cut and gained five yards. The cut was a bit slower and less crisp and there were enough defenders in the way that he never would have taken it for a monster gain; a quicker, sharper cut makes it an eight yarder.                                                                                         

The other, coming off the right tackle, showed a decent amount of space and he tripped himself up. The effort was there: he managed to stumble his way to six on the play.  But if he keeps his footing, it is 10-plus yards of space. I understand these types of things happen to all running backs, they don’t take every minor opportunity and convert to a double-digit run, yet these “could have gone for…” type moments present more often then “he went for…” nowadays by a significant margin. He can still put 70-80 yards a game behind good blocking, but everything I have seen this year tells me a return to form is unlikely. 

 

2. Getting to the Quarterback

This one is a mixed bag. I like that we put five sacks on the board. I like that Merriman’s sack total the last two games equates to about what I thought he’d end the whole season with. I also like what I see of Larry English when he is on the field.  He has yet to do much that will show up in a box score, but even without sacks he’s flushed passers and tipped balls. The athleticism is there and with some time to develop technique, he should be a solid guy (regardless of performance I have a hard time seeing Merriman re-signed.  Pass rushers are too in-demand and some team will overpay for him). 

The other item I liked that I came away with on the pass rush is Rivera’s willingness to use more blitzes and be a little more creative with them (i.e., more defensive backs running around behind the line of scrimmage). I’ve always favored the gamble on over-aggressive defense rather then playing it safe and going man coverage. N’awlins is a prime example. They have given up their fair share of points overall, but they also do things that help the team win games. 

Now that we’ve extolled the good of the new found pass rush, keep in mind a few things. One is that Jaques Cesaire’s sack was a bit of luck.  Eli was called for stepping out of bounds before he threw the ball away. Giants coach Tom Coughlin attempted to challenge, but the play was ruled unchallengeable. Looking at the replay, had it been reviewable it probably goes down in New York’s favor. 

Another of the sacks went on the board because Eli went for the scramble and was stopped for no gain. Like the out of bounds sack it was still pressure on the QB, but if the ref spots the ball a foot further and it isn’t classified a sack. The box score would also have looked even better if the team had been better able to finish its pursuit in some cases. When it forces Eli to throw the ball away, it is still a good thing; the incompletion came because of the pressure. 

With that on the books, Eli also came up with a few big completions where he wiggled out of the pocket, evaded the guy on his tail, and put a big completion on the board.  He was badgered plenty in the game, but not enough to prevent a 76 percent completion rate for two TDs and no picks.  Much of that was on Eli, and I have to send a bit of begrudging respect his way for the way he played.

Unfortunately, some also goes to the issue of “close but no cigar.”  When you gamble on a blitz you leave space in the defensive backfield. They paid a few times for getting hands on Eli without getting him down, both in big first down completions, and screen/short passes aided by over pursuit taking guys out of the play.

Good job starting to get pressure and make the quarterback work for his completions, now just work on a little more finishing ability on those plays.

 

3. Stopping the Run

Bradshaw was bottled up for less than three yards a carry, even with a significant number of carries. Brandon Jacobs was a different matter. Getting taken out of the game for a quarter or so kept his total yardage from going too high, but the over-sized bowling ball still rumbled for 6.1 yards per carry, and as a team New York went over 100 on the ground.

San Diego is not getting scorched as bad as they had been, but they still have to face Marion Barber (not as big as Jacobs, but still in that hard to bring down over speed mold that the team has trouble with), Cedric Benson, and Chris Johnson in three consecutive weeks. The team needs to keep improving at stunting the run, or these guys will gouge them big time.

 

4. Defensive Backs

I am not sure what to make of this. On one hand, coverage hasn’t looked that bad overall the last few games. This has had a big impact on the improved pressure being put on opposing quarterbacks. Especially significant is the three man coalition at safety with Clinton Hart gone and Ellison’s boost to playing time. Better depth at corner is still a concern. Oliver should be a depth-guy in case of injury, but sees playing time because the team essentially has three cornerbacks on roster (Dante Hughes is on the active roster but not seeing the field barring an injury).

In the same breath, Eli had himself a good game. The yardage was respectable but nothing special. However, paired with two TDs, no picks, and a tremendous completion percentage, you can’t say they really choked off the passing attack.

Since they haven’t done enough to laud their performance, nor have they given up too many significant big plays, I will end it at this: they are presently doing as well as the team needs them to do. They have never been a team to smother opposing wideouts and force the opposition to the ground game. What they are now, is a team that will cover well enough to open up a bit more blitzing, and give the front seven some time to harass the opposing quarterback. 

 

5. The Passing Game

While San Diego had more drops than normal this is one area I am not too worried about. One drop credited to Floyd was a pretty tough catch. If he had pulled it out it would have been great, but it wasn’t a butterfingers play. The Gates drops were, however. He should have snagged both of those and both would have been for solid yardage, yet he is a reliable guy who’s played long enough and proven himself. You have to include it when reviewing the the game but, it seems more an aberrant instead of a trend. It isn’t something to stress over.

On the same note, I think of Rivers and the occasional games where he coughs up the ball more than once as a byproduct of his style. He isn’t quite the “gunslinger” cliché that gambles and pays for it. After all, he holds a 14-6 TD-INT ratio. As long as it stays over 2:1 it’s mostly a non-issue. Bottom line he tried to do too much a couple of times and paid for it. With no running game and jump-ball receivers that instill the confidence to gamble on throws, you have to accept he will cough up the ball here and there.

The one thing I have harped on multiple times that I do hope gets addressed in the offseason is the wide receiver position. With an excellent passing game on paper, multiple additional tools like Sproles and Gates, it is not a dire need. I do think the team could use one more guy however. I think Floyd and Naanee are best suited splitting time as the third wideout. Both are quality guys but I don’t think either are particularly well suited to the No. 2 spot.

Floyd gives them the luxury of a massive lineup and a great vertical game.  Naanee is a great spark-plug guy who can take a screen pass twenty yards (ultimately I think Naanee actually has a better chance than Floyd at developing into a great complimentary No. 2 guy).  Neither one I look at to make a big third down catch.  Floyd can go downfield and pluck the ball away from the guy defending him; he is not a soft handed route runner who you can throw a timing route on third-and-five to pick up that first in the face of a big blitz. He could still develop, as he has had all of two games as the starter; he does however, have several years in the system already and to me is that 2-3 catches for 40-60 yards guy. Compared to other needs this one slips down the list, especially since Gates takes up a lot of that void, but I can’t help but feel that is the one piece of the receiving corps missing.

 

6. Play-calling

I try to steer away from coaching-based criticism too much, simply because it is the focal point of most posted concerns. It does worry me though, and I’ll tack it on to go with the rest. Yes, teams can go the Andy Reid route and get too creative for their own good sometimes.

The Chargers are not one of those teams. I am a Joe Schmo who played a little high school football, reads a good bit on the subject, but will never be mistaken for anything beyond a somewhat versed fan. 

If I can successfully predict the play as frequently and often as I do, the opposing defenses that make a living at this sort of thing can probably do so even more frequently. When the team actually does some creative things, good things can happen (such as when they started with LT in the backfield, then split him out wide and snagged a first down or the fake goal line plunge toss to the third TE on the depth chart).

No, you aren’t going to bootleg and roll-out our big moose of a QB. Rivers has a great arm but no wheels. You can augment that with a greater emphasis on the short passing game. You have big wideouts, a great tight end, two running backs with good hands; make use of them to keep defenses thinking.

You can play the Chargers with a safety deep and linebackers at the line of scrimmage. Very few quick slants, crossing routes, screen passes, or comeback routes are used. Instead the team stays fairly simple in the patterns they run, and rely on the ability to out-athleticize (yes I know not a real word) opposing defenses. 

More variety means linebackers and safeties have to consider more options.  This can help to open up the actual running game as well as augment it with mid-yardage catches. Allow Gates to start to block, then release (granted they have done this some, but it has worked well enough that it should be put to better use).

This offense can eats gobs of field in a hurry, but they can’t pound out first downs and eat clock that well. This keeps the defense out on the field longer, and gives more opportunity for opposing offenses.

It won’t be as flashy, but it could help keep defenses honest. 

 

So what does all this boil down to?

San Diego beat a team with a winning record on the road, gave themselves their best winning percentage in a year and a half, and proved their mettle by churning out a two-minute drill victory.

These are all building blocks to work from, just don’t go overboard. It was not a perfectly executed game, and said winning team is in the middle of a slide. In addition, several tough opponents remain. Tennessee seems to be finding itself again. Dallas is gaining momentum right about the time they usually start losing it, the Bengals are a monster that I never would have predicted when the schedule was first announced, and we still have to play Denver in Denver.

All this while still chasing the Broncos who have a schedule that should not result in the same type of collapse as last year (they have both KC games, an Oakland game, and the Redskins).

Good luck Chargers, keep improving and churn your way into the playoffs.

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