Josh McDaniels: Great Coach, Questionable Game Time Decisions

Game 13 in the NFL.

It’s an away game in perhaps the most savvy stadium environment in the NFL.

The crowd is hushed when the home team has the ball, up against a team looking to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

Against a team boasting the best quarterback in the league; a quarter back that opposing coaches fear so much, they are willing to go for a 4th down conversions on their own 40, just to keep the ball out of his hands.

After winning the coin toss, the election is to give Peyton Manning the ball to start the game.

Later, with Indianapolis stuffing Knowshon Moreno time and again on short yardage, he is once again handed the rock and asked to run into a brick wall.

The problem with some two-bit amateur commentator, (such as myself) bringing up such issues is that often all the great things Josh McDaniels has done get tossed to the side.

Let me be clear; Josh McDaniels is a great coach, if not an elite one. He rebuilt one of the worst defenses in the league last year, and turned it into a top 5 one this year.

Initially he was criticized heavily for his methodology. No big name defensive linemen taken in the draft? A washed up Dawkins is going to anchor the secondary?

The offensive is steady, safe, and sometimes explosive. It’s not spectacular, but there is always that feeling the this offense can take off at any moment. It gets the job done for the most part. People said that without Cutler, Brandon Marshall would just fade away, and yet, on Sunday Marshall and Orton combined to set a new NFL record.

But when the casual observer can see the obvious, one begins to wonder exactly what it is the coach is seeing.

McDaniels explained the decision to give Manning the ball right out of the gate this way; The plan was for the Broncos to have the ball at the end of the second quarter, score, and then have the ball at the beginning of the third quarter, and score again. In addition, giving Indy the ball to start the game and then stopping them with a 3 and out would have been a huge psychological boost for the Broncos, and a humbling set back for the Colts.

Of course things didn’t work out that way.

Listening to McDaniels explain his decisions provides quite a bit of insight into his psyche.

The first thing that strikes me is; the man does not believe in random happenings. Anyone who believes he can make a precise blue print for his team to have the ball at the end of the second quarter, is thinking in the realm of formula and equations.

It’s apparent that McDaniels sees the game as a mathematical problem, and solving it is only a matter of crunching the right numbers and sticking to the formula.

It’s interesting to note that McDaniels was a math major in college, and his understanding that deferring the ball at the beginning of the game can be of benefit, statistically, can not be overlooked.

The downside to this kind of mindset is that it can lead to dogmatic and rigid thinking.

Yes, theoretically, deferring would give the Broncos two extra possessions, and lo’ and behold, it almost worked—except the Broncos went ultra-conservative as the half winded down.

Imagine that what you see unfolding on the field is literally Josh McDaniel’s mind at work; calculating theories and computing probabilities.

In all that mathematical mojo, McDaniels over-calculated and tried to slow things down and burn time off the clock, postulating a steady march ending in a Broncos score with 2 seconds left in the half.

Instead, the team bogged down, and gave the ball back to Manning.

The math was off.

The theory works, the statistics hold up, until you throw in reality.  Before you know it, you’re down 21-0.

This Monday morning coach understands the logic, but still thinks it was a bad idea. It was an example of McDaniels thinking too much. It was also an example of how self-assured—perhaps even cocky—he is about this team.

It’s important to note that last year McDaniel’s Sensei, Bill Belichick, was one of the first coaches to laud deferring the opening kick-off at the NFL level.

What about Knowshon Moreno being sent time and again into a defensive line that was stuffing him at each and every turn?

Moreno, for all his positives, is not a short-yardage-obvious-running-play kind of back. The Bronocs have such a back, a bruiser, in Peyton Hillis. Where was he?

McDaniels, in the post game press conference, explained that since blocking back Spender Larsen was injured early in the game, Hillis had to fulfill the role of a blocking back.

It makes logical sense. Buckhalter also went down with an injury. Lamont Jordan was inactive for the game. That literally left only two backs on the field: Moreno and Hillis.

Hillis is the better short yardage back. He apparently is also the better blocking back. It seems, when McDaniels weighed his options, he picked the lesser of two evils: Hillis will block, Moreno will run. Rigid thinking? Maybe. In hindsight, if this was the given situation, why was Hillis not blocking for Moreno as the seconds ticked down at the end of the first half. For five straight plays – even in short yardage – the Denver Broncos power back Hillis was no where to be seen. The rock was given to Moreno, with the clock winding down, and no blocking fullback was in sight. Might the ball have been handed to a bigger, stronger, and more mucking “down-hill” runner for better effect? Perhaps.

Still, let us consider some other issues that effect short yardage situations.

As play calling goes, the Broncos rarely go to play action and put Orton in roll out opportunities even less. Both of these issues, along with quarterbacking from shotgun, make short yardage running plays stand out and much more obvious and defensible.

This is also an offense that leans heavily toward a conservative philosophy.

We saw the results Sunday, as the Colts defense lined up and tee’d off on Moreno mercilessly. It’s a predictable outcome to a predictable offensive scheme. 

Also consider the Offensive Line this year.  There are injuries and demotions going on. Though the line coach is the same as last year, the scheme has changed some.

Statistically the team is below average in 3rd-and-short situations, and near last on 4th-and-short.

It’s not mentioned much, but the O-line is not the same this year.

Something is missing. 

So it just doesn’t boil down to one thing; not the decision to run the smaller back into a staunch defensive line, the sputtering short yardage offensive line play, nor the surprisingly predictable and conservative scheme of the offense.

McDaniels is a rookie head coach. Sometimes we forget that. He’s destined to be one of the elites someday. As he has shown a few times this year however, some of his play calling and game time decisions aren’t fully matured yet.

There is a time and a place for “statistics”.

There is a time and a place to punch the other team in the mouth with power running and vertical plays.

McDaniels is still learning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Denver Broncos Officially Rebuilding

Regardless of what happens with Brandon Marshall, the Denver Broncos are officially in a rebuilding phase.

The fan base and commentators seem loathe to admit it, but the Denver Broncos are deconstructing in order to reconstruct.

Apparently the fans believed that hiring a new coach meant leaving the team exactly as it was, without any major restructuring or upheavals of any kind.

It was assumed that McDaniels would come in, leave all the offensive pieces in place, and then promptly rebuild the defense through the draft and free agency.

A pretty big assumption considering this was a coach who came in and heavily emphasized a “system” approach. Players will fit the system, not the other way around. This was a known quantity from day one. Not believing that things would change, and change in a big way, was extremely naive.

Denver fans set themselves up; they believed change to be a painless and easy process. It’s not. It’s painful and messy.

There’s a lot of negative commentary out there: McDaniels is destroying the Denver Broncos, he’s losing the locker room, he’s chasing off star players.

Anyone who has ever managed anything of any kind, knows that one must initially come in hard and strict, and then slowly loosen up over time. Coming in wishy washy is what REALLY loses locker rooms. It’s much harder to regain control than it is to have it in the first place and then begin to soften a little.

In reality, it’s a brilliant move by both Bowlen and McDaniels.

This is how the cow ate the cabbage. PERIOD. There’s only one way to skin a cat. PERIOD.

Those players with weak stomachs and intent of bloodless coups shall walk the plank.

Which is exactly how year one of rebuilding should go. In this way, Josh McDaniels is more like Tom Coughlin than Bill Belichick.

Coughlin was often critized for coming into the NY Giants with an iron fist. But, alas, it worked, and as he loosened up (ever so slightly) in coming years, the Giants improved.

When it comes to the the 2009-2010 Denver Broncos, think of one of those home makeover TV shows. The kind where they come in, and instead of just repainting, patching a hole in the roof, buying some new furniture, and call it good, they instead bulldoze everything down and start rebuilding.

The end product produced from the bulldozer/rebuild approach, is always better than the patch the roof/hang new curtains approach.

For Broncos fans, it’ll mean perhaps having to sit through a rough season or two in order to get to a playoff caliber team. It’ll also mean getting over it. Broncos fans and Denver area reporters and commentators are going to have to let it go.

Shannahan is gone, Culter is in Chicago, and Brandon Marshall may very well end up being traded away for future draft picks…

What did you expect?

There’s a new Sheriff in town, and his name is Josh McDaniels.

Let’s face it: Denver had become a very mediocre team. As a Bronocs fan living out of state, I became very bored with the organization. Assuming I’m an average fan, the lack of interest generated from a .500 team cannot be a good thing.

Now, however, the average fan is paying attention again. As they say in Hollywood, the only bad publicity is no publicity. We’re watching again. For some of us, rebuilding is exciting. Certainly more exciting than 9-7, 7-9, and 8-8. Yawn.

You better believe many of us fans that had gotten a bit bored of the Broncos will be tuned in to this franchise in 2009.

The shortest tenure of any modern era Denver Broncos coach was Wade Phillips and his two year stint back in 1993 and 1994. He went 9-7 and 7-9. Barring a major personality conflict with the owner, you have to imagine that McDaniels will get at least three years to prove himself.

So settle in to that reality all you “glass is half empty” fans and commentators. Bowlen has made it clear that McDaniels is his man. And McDaniels has made it abundantly clear that he is THE MAN.

The bulldozer has flattened the old house. Brick by brick, the new house is rising up.

It’s a new era in the land of orange. Get used to it.

 

Denver Broncos Can Wait Until Later Rounds To Get Defensive Linemen

The Denver Broncos’ defensive line needs a make over. A defensive stat that parks the Mile High defense at 27th in the league against the rush puts the onerous squarely on the shoulders of the defensive line and the defensive coaching staff.

Amongst the blogosphere and various sports news outlets, one will find mostly the postulations and suppositions that for the Denver Broncos to have even the slightest chance of an improved defense this year, they will need to draft defensive line early and often. A good D-Line shuts down the run.

The consensus among observers is that early picks on “the best players available” and NOT solid defensive line run stoppers is risky and reckless.

Maybe so.

But perhaps a consideration of the best D-Lines around the league is in order. Are they all stocked with former first round draft picks from end to end? Hardly.

In fact, a look at the very best run stopping defense in the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings, can teach us quite a bit about our draft need assumptions when it comes to the Denver Broncos.

The Minnesota Vikings’ defensive line is all about stuffing the run. It’s what they do. They’ve lead the league in run defense over the last three seasons, allowing an average of only 70.8 rushing yards a game over that span.

Last year they did it without two starters in the secondary (due to injuries) for much of the year.

The line finished with 45 sacks in 2008, putting them fourth in the NFL in that category, and overall the defense as a whole notched a sixth place ranking. Quite respectable.

Let’s take a look at the Viking line from last year, and the respective draft positions of each player when originally selected.

The starting defensive end on the right side, Jared Allen, was drafted by Kansas City in the fourth round of the 2004 NFL Draft. His backup, Brian Robinson, was also a fourth round pick.

Kevin Williams, the starting right defensive tackle, was the Vikings’ ninth pick of the first round, and his reliever, Letroy Guion, was a fifth rounder.

At left side DT there’s Pat Williams, an undrafted free agent, and his breather, Fred Evans, a seventh round grab.

Ray Edwards, at left defensive end, was snagged in the fourth Round, while the player under him on the depth chart is Jayme Mitchell, yet another undrafted free agent.

The only other first round linemen on the DL roster are Jimmy Kennedy, widely considered a bust and positioned third string on the depth chart, and Kenechi Udeze, who was turning out to be a force (and still could be), but is presently battling leukemia.

So of the starters and second string guys, one was a first rounder, three were picked up in the fourth round, one in the the fifth round, one in the seventh, and the other two were undrafted free agents.

This rag-tag bunch has been the dominant run stuffing line in the league for the past three seasons? You bet.

Surprisingly, it’s not an uncommon scenario. Some of the very best defensive lines across the NFL are often a riff n’ raff bunch of tough guys ranging from first round darlings to undrafted blue collar muckers.

If the Denver Broncos do some interesting things in the first couple rounds of the draft, there’s no reason to panic. Gigging a linebacker and cornerback before looking at the line is not out of the question. Picking up some solid linemen later in the draft has precedent.

McDaniels and Xanders aren’t the types to panic. They certainly understand the history of draft picks and the defensive line, and will do the right thing.

That doesn’t necessarily mean going with linemen early. It doesn’t mean passing up on one either. It simply means going for the best defensive player on the boards in the early stages of the draft, regardless of position needs.

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