Chris Johnson Vs. Adrian Peterson: Who’s the Best RB in Football?

Last year, Adrian Peterson became everyone’s unanimous pick as the best running back in the NFL.  However, this year, the argument has become more muddled with the emergence of Chris Johnson.  In his rookie season, Johnson went for over 1,000 yards rushing as the Smash in Tennesee’s “Smash and Dash” running attack.  But he had not shown the ability to be an every-down back. 

Suffice it to say that that question has been answered.  As the NFL’s leading rusher, Johnson has already eclipsed 1,000 yards on the season.  People already knew about his blazing 4.24-speed, but Johnson also leads the league in yards after contact.  Despite being a bit undersized at 5’11” 200 lbs., Johnson has shown great strength and tackle-breaking ability.  This has helped him evolve into a workhorse for the Tennessee Titans averaging a blistering pace of over six yards per carry. His production has outstripped all other NFL running backs, including the great Mr. Peterson.

This of course, brings us to the subject of the article.  We know Chris Johnson has caught up; has he surpassed Adrian Peterson?  With all due respect to Maurice Jones-Drew, this is a two-man argument right now.  While Johnson’s production has been better this year, his team has relied on him more than Peterson’s, which has the benefit of Brett Favre at quarterback.  Production is tough to use as the sole metric, because Peterson’s offensive line is superior to Johnson’s.  So let’s break down each facet of each back’s game. 

Breakaway Speed

Both Johnson and Peterson are elite in this category.  Defensive backs are simply not going to catch up to these two if they get past the second level.  Johnson is arguably the fastest player in the NFL.  One can attribute his lofty draft pick at least in part to his blazing 4.24 40-yard dash time.  However, Peterson is not far behind, with 4.4 speed.  Neither has a problem running away from NFL defenses.  However, a slight edge here goes to Johnson. 

Size/Bulk/Strength

The gap here is bigger.  Adrian Peterson has prototypical running back size ad 6’0″, 225 lbs.  Johnson is smaller, built like Brian Westbrook at 5’11”, 200 lbs.  However, Johnson has shown the ability to break tackles and leads the league in yards after contact.  However, he seems to gain yards after contact more by taking a hit and refusing to go down rather than inflicting damage on the player attempting to tackle him, which is what Peterson does.  So, I give the edge here all day to Adrian Peterson , who is a nightmare to bring down in the open field. 

Juking ability

This is probably the most remarkable aspect of each player’s game.  They can each cut on a dime, making players miss with ease.  They can go around you or through you.  This one is a push .

Receiving ability

Johnson is a favorite target of Vince Young.  He has good hands and is a dynamic player that has to be accounted for on 3rd down.  However, the same can be said for Peterson, and his size makes him almost like an H-back coming out of the backfield.  Defensive backs do not like seeing this guy in the open field.  Still, Johnson’s explosiveness makes up for this.  One again, I call this a push.

Blocking ability

Both are actually pretty willing blockers, especially for younger players.  Both players stay in the game on passing downs, and even get downfield to throw blocks for quarterbacks when the play breaks down.  However, due to his size, I’ll give this one to Peterson. 

Ball security

This one is not even close.  If Peterson has a weakness, it’s fumbling.  It has been a nagging concern for him, and although he doesn’t fumble frequently, it does happen more than he’d like.  In contrast, Johnson has lost just one fumble this year. 

Overall

Chris Johnson is the most exciting player in football.  He can score from anywhere in the field, he makes defenders look silly, and he can also carry the ball 30 times a game.  He is intelligent about taking hits to his smaller frame, and is a tenacious runner.  He has a bright future in this league.

But this is Adrian Peterson we’re talking about.  He has everything you want in a running back.  An unmatched combination of size, strength, speed, shiftiness, and hands.  He is the prototypical running back.  He will take care of the ball better.

So, as you could hopefully tell from the picture, I’ll call Adrian Peterson number 1, and Chris Johnson 1a.  It really is splitting hairs though, as you can’t go wrong with either one.

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The Philadelphia Eagles’ Mentality

Yes. That just happened. 

Against an inferior opponent that we all hate to death, the Philadelphia Eagles (with some serious help from the officials) gave away a game they should have won. 

A defense that prides itself on making big plays cracked with the game on the line (twice). Our sure-handed tight end dropped a sure-first-down. Our rookie running back ruined a screen that could have gone for a big gain. 

And the referees, who were looking for every opportunity to help the Cowboys, screwed us on the single-most obvious replay I have ever seen. 

Neither of McNabb’s elbows were down until he was well past the beak. Nope. We have to make sure “America’s team” wins. 

So, what does this mean?

The Eagles have to get angry. This team needs to have a chip on their shoulder. They need to hear everyone hyping this stupid Cowboys team and realize that they are an afterthought. They need to realize that they were robbed. They need to realize that the Cowboys had no business winning this game. 

The Eagles need to get a little Ray Lewis in them. 

They need to come out and dominate teams. Prove that teams like Dallas have no business being on the same field as them. Hit them in the mouth. Play smart football.  Run the ball with a passion. 

We have the toughest stretch of the season coming. It could break our season. But it can also make us as a team. Having things come easy has made us soft.

Eagles, the Cowboys beat you in your house. Get mad. Release that anger on Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and every other quarterback that has the misfortune of facing this defense.

It’s us against the world. And we are coming out on top.

The Eagles were embarrassed at home. No, it wasn’t a blowout. But watching your arch-rival steal a game from you in your house while Cris Collinsworth verbally fellates them all game is embarrassing. Winners react by coming back twice as strong. Losers pack it in. 

Who are you, Eagles? Your move.

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Preview (Nov. 8)

Can it get much more exciting than this?  It’s Week 9, Sunday Night Football, and the Philadelphia Eagles are hosting their hated rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, for sole possession of first place in the NFC East.

Both teams are 5-2 and coming off blowout victories.  Who has the edge?  Let’s take a look at some of the matchups. 

 

When the Eagles have the ball

Eagles’ Pass Offense vs. Cowboys’ Pass Defense

This is probably the most important matchup.  When Eagles’ quarterbacks have had time this year, they have been pretty close to unstoppable. 

However, as we saw against the Oakland Raiders and Washington Redskins, the offensive line has had lapses, and this has caused the offense to become stagnant. 

The player to watch for the Cowboys is outside linebacker Demarcus Ware.  Along with Jared Allen and Julius Peppers, Ware is one of the most dangerous pass rushers in the NFL. 

A freakish combination of size and speed, Ware has been a problem in the past and will need to be accounted for on every play. 

The onus will be on the Eagles’ prized offseason acquisition, left tackle Jason Peters, to get out and keep Ware out of the pocket. 

On the occasions that Ware does get around, the interior line will need to provide McNabb with room to step up on the pocket.

Up front, the Cowboys are solid, led by Ware and Pro Bowl tackle Jay Ratliff and have been getting great pressure.  The Eagles’ offensive line is still jelling and will face their biggest test so far on Sunday.

In the secondary, the Cowboys are young.  Terrence Newman is solid at corner, but elsewhere, the Cowboys have had problems. 

Mike Jenkins, a former first round pick, starts at the other cornerback position but has not lived up to his draft status yet.  On the other side, the Eagles’ receivers are as good as any team’s.

Desean Jackson, one of the fastest receivers in the NFL, has had a breakout year so far.  The Cowboys will likely use Newman on him; it will be interesting to see if they leave Newman in one-on-one situations with Jackson. 

Last year, Newman had a lot of trouble with Jackson, most notably being burned for 60 yards in the first meeting. 

Most likely, they will shade a safety toward that side, and leave Jenkins one-on-one with rookie Jeremy Maclin. 

This is a matchup the Eagles can exploit.  Maclin beat Corey Webster last week for a touchdown, and has the speed, size and body control to make plays consistently downfield against man-to-man coverage.

The double coverage on Jackson will also lead to opportunities for Brent Celek, Jason Avant, and the Eagles’ running backs in the middle of the field. 

Quarterback Donovan McNabb is coming off a near-flawless performance.  If given time, he should be able to pick apart the Dallas secondary.

Edge: Eagles

 

Eagles’ rushing offense vs. Cowboys’ rush defense

The Cowboys come into the game ranked sixth against the run, and their front seven is big.  The Eagles have not been particularly successful running the ball, relying mostly on occasional big plays. 

However, Brian Westbrook had moderate success against the Redskins before leaving with an injury.  And the Giants’ front four gave up two big runs against the Eagles. 

Again, the Eagles’ offensive line is still jelling.  However, a couple of big runs may be all they need to make the Cowboys think twice about blitzing, setting up the pass.

The Eagles are not going to run as the bulk of their offense; but establishing some semblance of a rushing attack will help the passing attack. 

Edge: Cowboys

 

When the Cowboys have the ball

Cowboys’ passing offense vs. Eagles’ passing defense

Tony Romo has been playing like a man possessed.  He has not thrown an interception in four games, and has been making big plays with his newfound star at receiver, Miles Austin. 

Austin is a big, physical receiver: the kind who has given the Eagles’ smaller defensive backs trouble in the past, and he will most likely make a couple of catches. 

However, Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown will keep him from taking over the game the way he has the past few weeks.  The Eagles’ cornerbacks dominated the Cowboys’ wide receivers last year.

The Eagles’ problem, of course, is the tight end.  From Fred Davis to Kevin Boss to Zach Miller, opposing tight ends have had some field days against this Eagles’ defense.  And the Eagles have not faced anyone like the Cowboys’ Jason Witten, arguably one of the three or four best tight ends in the NFL. 

Will Witherspoon has helped improve the Eagles’ coverage, but if there is a place to attack this Eagles’ defense, it is with the tight end.  Another concern is that Chris Gocong, the starting SAM linebacker for the Eagles, is banged up. 

Rookie Moise Fukou will likely start in his place.  While Fukou has showed promise, it is asking a lot of a rookie to cover an elite tight end in a big game against a division rival. 

The key here for the Eagles will be the pass rush, particularly from the front four.  Trent Cole has been a monster, and tackle Broderick Bunkley has also improved in the pass rushing department. 

For the Eagles to be successful, someone has to step up at left end.  Jason Babin has a sack in each of the last two games and is a former first-round pick. 

If the Eagles can get consistent pressure from their front four, they will be able to throw a lot of different looks at the Cowboys, and when they do blitz it will be much more effective.

If you give Tony Romo time, he will beat you.  That is a fact.  The key is to pressure and force him into turnovers.  A couple of turnovers could swing what is likely to be a shootout in the Eagles’ favor. 

Edge: Cowboys

 

Cowboys’ rush offense vs. Eagles rush defense

The Cowboys have the best set of running backs in the NFC East.  Marion Barber is a relentless grinder, Felix Jones is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and Tashard Choice is a versatile player who can create matchup problems.

However, Barber is banged up and has been taking snaps from Choice.  The Cowboys’ offensive line is one of the biggest in football and has been able to create holes for the running backs. 

However, the Eagles come into the game ranked second against the run.  They bottled up Brandon Jacobs last week, and should be up to the task of containing the Cowboys running backs. 

Like that of the Eagles, the Cowboys’ running game will not be the crux of their attack.  Rather, it will be used to counter blitzes and to set up play action. 

Edge: Eagles

 

Special Teams:  Both teams have dangerous returners.  Patrick Crayton has a punt return for a touchdown in each of the last two games, while on the other side DeSean Jackson is…well, DeSean Jackson. 

Ellis Hobbs had a couple of big kick returns last week against the Giants.  David Akers has been off at times (costing the Eagles the game against Oakland), but he is an experienced, mostly reliable kicker.  Nick Folk is also very good in this department for the Cowboys.

Both teams have had trouble with punt coverage, and I would not surprised to see either of these dangerous returners take one back. 

Edge: Push

 

Coaching

Wade Phillips, who many saw as a coach on the hot seat, leads the Cowboys.  He has yet to win a playoff game, and his teams have underachieved in the past.  On the other side is experienced playoff veteran and master game planner Andy Reid. 

If the game comes down to halftime adjustments, don’t expect much out of either coach.  But Reid will have his troops ready, as he excels at pre-game planning.

The matchup of first-year defensive coordinator Sean McDermott of the Eagles against offensive coordinator prodigy Jason Garrett will be intriguing.

Edge: Eagles

 

I am too emotionally invested in this game to make predictions.  The Eagles will win if they can contain Demarcus Ware and exploit the Cowboys’ secondary.  The Cowboys will win if they can run the ball or one of the wide receivers has a big day (probably Miles Austin).

I am taking it for granted that Jason Witten will have close to 10 catches for over 100 yards, but if the Eagles shut down the rest of the Cowboys offense, they can still overcome this. 

This should come down to the end of the game, with whoever’s defense can make a key stop or force a turnover to decide a shootout.

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Four Defensive Players Who Need to Step Up for the Eagles in 2009

When we look at the Eagles, we often take some things for granted. 

One is the potential of some of the players. Oftentimes, I say, “As long as this player plays this way, we should be fine.” 

However, things do not always work out that way.

On defense, there are no weaknesses, but there are a couple of question marks. With that in mind, I’ve made a list of four players who I think have the ability to step up their play to a higher level.

If these players do so, the Eagles’ defense can go from good to scary.

Victor Abiamiri

A 2007 second-round pick out of defensive end, Abiamiri reminds some people of his former teammate Justin Tuck, who is now a force on the New York Giants’ defensive line. 

Abiamiri has been primarily better against the run, but he has the talent to become an every-down left end for the Eagles. If he can bring a consistent pass rush while being a wall against the run, the Eagles’ defensive line could be one of the top five in the NFL. 

I would love to see a seven- or eight-sack season from Abiamiri with some tackles for loss, as this would take a lot of pressure off of Trent Cole. 

The time is right for a breakout season for this defensive end.

Brodrick Bunkley

Bunkley was a disappointment initially, but he’s improved his attitude, and really showed how big of an improvement he’s made against the Giants in the playoffs last season. 

Bunkley was stout against the run—now he has to improve his pass rush, which was thought to be Bunkley’s strength when he was drafted in the first round out of Florida State. 

This offseason, he has been working on his speed, and hopefully that will translate into five or six sacks from the inside.

Chris Gocong

Gocong is another player who was a feared pass rusher (as a defensive end) in college, but has not seen that skill translate to the NFL yet. 

If he can generate more pressure on blitzes and be a consistent force, it will allow the Eagles to be really creative with their blitz packages. 

Gocong is already solid against the run; he just needs to improve his pass rushing ability.

Quintin Demps

One couldn’t ask to be in a better position than Demps. 

There are two ways to look at it: he could tell himself that he has the impossible job of filling the shoes of a Hall of Famer, or he can look at it as an opportunity to be an impact player in an exciting defense on a Super Bowl-caliber team in just his second year. 

The talent is there. Demps led the NCAA in interceptions while in college, and he combines 4.4 speed with a solid frame (similar to Brian Dawkins) ideal for the free safety position. 

If he can avoid mental lapses while in coverage, Demps has the potential to be similar to Baltimore Ravens’ safety Ed Reed.

NFL Division Rankings

There has been much debate as to which division is the strongest. 

Here, then, are the eight divisions ranked from toughest to weakest, and the reasons why.

 

1.  NFC East 

Top-to-bottom, no other division has the depth that the NFC East does. 

It would not be a shock to see all four teams go .500 in divisional play. All of these teams are playoff contenders.

In fact, fans of all four teams have reason to believe their team can win the NFC East crown. While the Giants and Eagles may be the favorites of most experts, the Redskins and Cowboys are right there. 

Think about this: The Eagles advanced the farthest of any NFC East team, yet they were swept by the last-place Redskins, who finished 8-8. 

An 8-8 record was good enough to win the NFC West, but in the East, it was last place. 

I would be shocked if two teams from the East did not get into the playoffs, and it could easily be three. 

No teams have any downright weaknesses, though each team has some question marks (O-Line for the Reskins, secondary for the Cowboys, wide receivers for the Cowboys, and injury concerns for the Eagles). 

 

2.  AFC South 

Again, all four teams can be considered playoff contenders this year. 

After losing Marcus Stroud—which killed their run defense—the Jaguars have restocked their offensive line, and Jack Del Rio will always keep them competitive. Maurice Jones-Drew is set to explode. 

The Texans are young, explosive on offense, and improved on defense, and are a chic pick for the postseason. 

The Titans had the best record in the AFC last season and, despite losing Albert Haynesworth, they still have a solid defense that will give them a chance to win a lot of games. 

And finally, you have the team that has dominated this division in the past, the Indianapolis Colts. 

Three years removed from their last Super Bowl, the Colts are no longer the best team in football.  But the offense is still elite, and while the run defense can use some help, the Colts can outscore pretty much anyone.

 

3.  AFC East

This division has the preseason Super Bowl favorite New England Patriots at the top. 

The Jets also have a lot to like, with a tough front seven, flashy new quarterback, and a solid offensive line. 

Meanwhile, the defending division champs from Miami have been overlooked, but return a strong defense with a Wildcat offense that baffled so many teams. 

And how could we forget the Bills, who added a speedy pass rusher in the draft, an explosive pass-catching tight end, and of course, Terrell Owens. 

Another conference that could have four playoff contenders.

 

4.  NFC South

Besides Tampa Bay, any of these teams could win the division. 

In a division that has traditionally been dominated by tough defenses, this year they have three offenses that will put up lots of points on the board. 

Atlanta now boasts a rising star at quarterback (Matt Ryan), a true No. 1 wide receiver with great hands (Roddy White), size, and speed, a physically gifted and explosive running back (Michael Turner), and the best tight end (Tony Gonzalez) in the history of the NFL. 

Not to be outdone, the New Orleans Saints have Drew Brees, a top three NFL quarterback, and this year all his weapons are finally healthy. 

I anticipate a big year from that offense, with Lance Moore, Marques Colston and Reggie Bush having close to 1000 yards receiving or more each and Bush and Pierre Thomas forming a formidable thunder and lightning rushing combination. 

Lastly, the Carolina Panthers won the division last year, and the defense should be stronger.  A vertical passing attack featuring diminutive but speedy Steve Smith balances nicely a powerful rushing attack featuring big, bad Jonathan Stewart and the explosive DeAngelo Williams. 

The NFC Championship could easily go through the NFC South.

 

5.  AFC North

Amid all the other big moves that happened, the Pittsburgh Steelers pretty much stayed pat. 

An improved offensive line and the confidence from last year’s run should make them Super Bowl contenders. 

The Baltimore Ravens should be tough once again as Joe Flacco continues to improve, but it’s their defensive quarterback (Ed Reed) who should win them at least two games all by himself. 

The Cincinnati Bengals could be a sleeper team this year, with a great quarterback, deep receiving corps (if Ochocinco is M-I-A, there are guys waiting to step up), and a defense that looks a lot better than the Bengals traditionally have. 

And even the Browns are only two years removed from a 10-6 season, and whoever wins the quarterback battle should have a productive year.  I expect Braylon Edwards to bounce back nicely. 

 

6.  NFC North

Cutler, Rodgers, Stafford, and…Favre?  This will be the story of the year in the NFC North.  Besides the Lions, it’s easy to see any of these teams coming out on top. 

The Chicago Bears have added arguably the most talented quarterback in the league in Jay Cutler, and the defense is solid as usual. 

The Green Bay Packers come off a season in which they really underachieved, and Aaron Rodgers seems to have a chip on his shoulder because of Brett Favre’s shadow. 

Lastly, the Vikings won the division, and whether or not they add Favre, that defense can shut down anybody, not to mention the fact that they have the best running back in the game in Adrian Peterson. 

The Lions will not go 0-16, and hope is on the horizon for this franchise.  Look at it this way: the Lions will definitely improve on last year (and they certainly can’t do any worse). 

 

7.  NFC West

This division should be more competitive than last year. 

I like the Cardinals a lot.  The passing attack should be dominant, but look out for Chris “Beanie” Wells to give the Cards a thumper running back that can wear defenses down 

Wells will force coordinators to pick their poison between leaving Larry Fitzgerald in one-on-one coverage or letting Wells and Tim Hightower chip away with four, five, and six yards at a time. 

Meanwhile, their defense should easily be top 15 (maybe top 10), led by playmakers like Adrian Wilson, Darnell Dockett, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. 

The Seattle Seahawks have three linebackers with Pro Bowl talent and, with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck, should be respectable again. 

And if the San Francisco 49ers figure out their quarterback situation, they have enough surrounding talent to make a serious run at the playoffs. 

St. Louis figures to have a rebuilding year, but don’t be surprised to see San Francisco and Seattle make some noise this year.

 

8.  AFC West

The worst division in football. 

The San Diego Chargers are a trendy Super Bowl pick, and the defense should bounce back with the return of Shawne Merriman. 

Playoff contenders end there, though. 

Denver’s team has been run straight into the ground.  They fired a Hall-of-Fame coach, and hired an offensive coordinator who rode the talent of Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker to a head coaching position. 

Jay Cutler is gone, the defense is still a mess, and I would not be surprised at a 3-13 season. 

Oakland is still Oakland, and Kansas City is on the right track but still a year away from being a serious contender.

 

Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receivers: Where/When Will They Play?

The Eagles’ wide receivers are the talk of the town, and it’s finally for a good reason.  With Kevin Curtis, Desean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles have three wide receivers with sub 4.4 40-yard dash times.  All three can get deep, and all three can make plays after the catch. In addition, the Eagles have two possession receivers in Jason Avant and Hank Baskett, and one wild card in Reggie Brown.

Let’s start with the Eagles’ best returning receiver: Desean Jackson.  Jackson had over 900 yards receiving last year, and has been working on getting stronger.  Jackson has speed that demands almost constant double teams. 

He can get deep on anybody, even Terrence Newman, the Cowboys’ big, speedy corner, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, arguably the fastest cornerback (if not player) in the NFL.  I expect Jackson to go for over 1000 yards with 5 TD’s this year.  The key will be his strength. 

Jackson is often compared to the Carolina Panthers’ Steve Smith, another 5’9″ outside receiver.  Steve Smith weighs 185 lbs (Jackson weighed 170) and has a mean streak about him.  He goes up and fights for the ball, challenging bigger cornerbacks, and is able to beat press coverage with his quickness and wiry build. 

The good news is, Jackson has already had greater success than Smith at the same point in his career; if he can increase his toughness, Jackson should be a dynamic number 1 receiver.

Next I will talk about Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles’ flashy new rookie wide receiver.  He’s been compared to Indianapolis Colts receiver Reggie Wayne, and it’s easy to see why.  At 6’1″, 200 lbs, Maclin is the same size as Wayne and possesses gamebreaking speed. 

Not only will he contribute as a deep threat, but I think Maclin’s athleticism and size will make him a threat in the red zone as well as as a possession receiver going over the middle and running outs on the sidelines.  THe Eagles will probably also give him plenty of quick slants that will allow him to make people miss after the catch.

I think Maclin should start on the outside opposite Jackson because of his size advantage over Kevin Curtis.  He should be great as a deep threat, and if Jackson sees a lot of double teams, expect Maclin to make some big plays.

I think Maclin will also see some plays in the slot to create mismatches, but I think he’s an outside receiver with the potential to be a number 1, and they need to play him on the outside to get him to stay on the right learning curve.

Kevin Curtis is the oldest Eagles receiver.  He’s got speed (not to beat a dead horse or anything), quickness, and intelligence.  He’s a decent deep threat, but I like his route-running and ability to make plays after the catch. 

So, I think he should primarily be in the slot, used similarly to Wes Welker (Curtis is actually bigger and faster than Welker).  I would take Curtis in a matchup with pretty much any nickel back or safety in the league (maybe not Ed Reed), and certainly any linebacker. 

I think Maclin, Curtis, and even Jackson will all see time in the slot.

Another guy who will see quite a bit of action in the slot is Jason Avant.  At 6’0″, 200 lbs, Avant is a solidly built receiver.  He’s not very fast, but he’s intelligent, runs great routes, and has amazing hands. 

He made a ton of big third-down catches last year, and became a favored target for Donovan McNabb.  Expect him to continue to grow and make key catches.  He’ll be an unsung hero among some more flashy players, but Avant will be a key guys who defenses will often lose among all the speed the Eagles have.

Next we have Hank Baskett.  Baskett has nice size (6’4″), deceptive speed, and a hot wife.  He has steadily improved each year.  I expect Baskett to get on the field in the red zone, and I think he could be a situational threat.

He was a long jumper in college, and can beat pretty much any secondary player for a jump ball (again, Ed Reed comes to mind as a possible exception).  Baskett was signed to a one-year deal, so he clearly fits into the Eagles’ plans this year.  Expect 400-500 yards, but a few touchdowns, maybe as many as seven. 

REggie Brown is the unknown.  He says he has the motivation to come back and start, but I just don’t see it.  Even in his really good year in 2007, he never showed the skills to be a true No. 1.

He’s a decent player.  He’s got good, but not great speed, good, but not great size, and his hands are inconsistent. 

He’ll get in situationally and shows that we have great depth, but I don’t see him beating out Maclin, Curtis, or Jackson, and Avant was a model of consistency last year, the antithesis to Brown’s career so far.  I expect Brown to be trade bait.

I also expect plenty of packages to see either double tight ends or double halfbacks.  Expect Brent Celek to be used as a reliable security blanket (similar to the way Chad Lewis was used).  He should get 50 catches this year. 

Cornelius Ingram will be used in some formations, and he has the speed and size to create dangerous mismatches, but I think 2010 is when he’ll really make a big impact. Still, I expect him to get a couple of touchdown catches.  He’s just too much of a physical beast to keep off the field. 

McNabb likes going to tight ends (Chad Lewis was the Eagles’ leading receiver a few times), and I think Celek’s reliability and Ingram’s explosiveness will lead to solid production from the position.

The Eagles have three running backs who can catch passes.  Lesean McCoy and Brian Westbrook possess similar traits: great hands, quickness, and home run ability on any given play.  I also expect Leonard Weaver to get in on the action. 

He was a tight end coming out of college, and has pretty good athleticism and hands for a fullback.  He can be a reliable, sneaky target on passing plays.  Washington has used Mike Sellers like this at times, and I think Weaver is more athletically gifted than Sellers. 

The Eagles have plenty of options in the passing game.  They have deep threats, underneath guys, and some bigger targets.  I expect Donovan McNabb to have a great year.  My initial projection would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 4000 yards, 25+ touchdowns, and less than 15 interceptions.

Giants vs. Eagles Breakdown 2009

A different writer wrote a similar article, though I believe it was lacking in substance.

I will try to be as unbiased as possible. 

The reason I pick these two teams is that they are often talked about as the two best teams in the NFC East and in the conference overall.

One of these two teams could (should?) make it to the Super Bowl, and the two (or three) meetings between them could have a heavy impact on the Big Game.

First, I’ll look at each position, then I’ll look at individual matchups (O-Line vs. D-Line, WR vs. corner).

 

O-Line

QB: Eagles have the advantage.

This is a classic argument.

Giants fans argue that Eli’s Super Bowl ring gives him the advantage, while Eagles fans point to statistics, head-to-head history, and every other piece of evidence.  Eli is one of the best at the two-minute drill, and he has come up with some fourth-quarter magic.

But, so has McNabb, and (for most of his career) he’s done it with subpar receivers.

I’ll go with McNabb for a few reasons, but the main one is turnovers. McNabb has the lowest interception percentage in NFL history; Eli has thrown 92 in four years.

In a close game between the Eagles and Giants, a turnover can easily swing the outcome. 

In addition, McNabb has better arm strength (which is key in the windy games they play) and ability to avoid the pass rush. Still, Eli is a solid QB and is definitely better than Tony Romo and Jason Campbell.

RB: Giants have the advantage

Brian Westbrook is one of the most exciting players ever, but the Giants have better depth. Jacobs and Bradshaw both have a great deal of experience, and Jacobs has a chip on his shoulder.

The Giants’ rushing attack should be formidable once again. Rookie Andre Brown also figures into the equation.

On the other side, the Eagles use their running backs differently. I think Brian Westbrook will still create nightmares for the Giants’ linebackers, and Lesean McCoy will also be used extensively. 

However, the Giants have two proven commodities and one unknown; the Eagles have only one proven and one rookie.

So, I’ll give the Giants the edge, but keep in mind that both teams use their running backs differently.

The Giants may have more success on the ground, but Westbrook and McCoy will be effective off screens and short passes.

LT: Advantage Eagles

David Deihl is solid, but Jason Peters has amazing versatility in both pass protection and running the football. Whether or not Jason Peters is the best in the NFL is debatable, but he is up there. 

LG: Even

Rich Seubert has experience, but Todd Herremans has steadily improved and could be on the verge of a Pro Bowl.

C: Advantage Giants

Shaun O’Hara is the best in the business.

Period.

Jamaal Jackson is above average, but O’Hara is an All-Pro.

RG: Advantage Giants

Once again, Chris Snee is one of the best players in the NFL at any position. Stacy Andrews is still young and is moving to his more suitable position. His size will allow him to win most battles, but Snee has experience and pedigree.

RT: Advantage Eagles

Despite the position switch, I think Shawn Andrews will be successful. He is a better fit at right tackle because of his athleticism. He has been to Pro Bowls and should dominate this year.

I like Kareem McKenzie, too.  He has a lot of experience, but I think Andrews’ talent wins the battle here.

Overall O-Line: Advantage Giants

This unit has played together in a Super Bowl, and that experience makes them the best line in the NFL, with the Eagles a close second.

WR: Advantage Eagles

Desean Jackson is a lot better than Steve Smith. He demands double teams and went for nearly 1,000 yards last year. Smith is solid, but is not on Jackson’s level. 

Kevin Curtis has more experience and better hands than Domenik Hixon. The rookies are largely unknown, but think of the fact that Jason Avant basically equalled Steve Smith’s production last year, and he would be the Eagles third or fourth receiver. 

Maclin should have an immediate impact, but so should Hakeem Nicks.

However, I think the Eagles’ proven commodities (two receivers who have gone over 900 yards in their career) give them the edge.

TE: Even

Kevin Boss is a great blocker, but not a great receiver. Brent Celek exploded when he started at tight end last year and is a solid, reliable target for McNabb. Cornelius Ingram will be used to create some mismatches, especially in the red zone. 

I call this even because both teams have tight ends that fit their needs. The Giants have an elite run-blocking tight end, and the Eagles have two tight ends that can create mismatches in the passing game.

Travis Beckum will also be used as a pass-catcher and should create some mismatches for the Giants.

 

D-Line

Right Defensive End: Advantage Giants

Trent Cole is a magnificent and underrated every-down right end, but Osi Umenyiora is simply one of the best in the business. He terrorized Winston Justice in one game, and, though he is unlikely to reach the same level of success, he is constantly in other teams’ backfields.

Right Defensive tackle: Advantage Eagles 

Chris Canty is making a position switch, while Broderick Bunkley had a breakout run at the end of the year last year and seems poised to be a force both against the pass and against the run.

Left Defensive Tackle: Even

Both Mike Patterson and Fred Robbins are experienced, brick wall-type run stuffers with playmaking ability.

Left Defensive End: Advantage Giants

Justin Tuck is a force to be reckoned with, while the Eagles’ carousel has still not produced a consistent player. 

Depth: Even

The Giants have Rocky Bernard, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Barry Cofield; the Eagles have Darren Howard, Juqua Parker, Trevor Laws, Dan Klecko, and Chris Clemons. Both teams have great depth and ability to move guys around in different situations. 

Overall: Advantage Giants

The Giants will be able to generate significantly more of a pass rush, while both teams will be solid against the run.

WLB: Advantage Giants

Michael Boley is coming off a solid year in Atlanta. Akeem Jordan is a bit undersized and could lose his spot to Omar Gaither.

MLB: Advantage Eagles

Antonio Pierce was burned by Westbrook last year, while Stewart Bradley has the size, speed, and athleticism to be the next Brian Urlacher.

SLB: Even

Chris Gocong and Danny Clark are both solid, if unspectacular, 70-tackle players.

Overall: Even

Both teams have solid linebacking corps.

 

Secondary

CB1: Advantage Eagles

Asante Samuel had a tough time getting used to Jim Johnson’s system, but, once he did, it was smooth sailing.

Samuel had three interceptions in the last few games, including two in the playoffs, one of which he returned for a touchdown and another was returned to the two yard-line.

He’s the second-best cornerback in football and is poised for a huge season.

The Giants are also set for the position with playmaking cornerback Corey Webster.  However, while both have lockdown abilities, I give Samuel the edge because of his playmaking ability to both force a turnover and be dangerous on the return.

However, both the Giants and Eagles are set at this position.

CB2: Advantage Eagles

Assuming Sheldon Brown is playing, he has the experience and was scored on just once last year. Aaron Ross is solid, but Brown is an elite corner and probably the best No. 2 corner in the league.

Nickel: Advantage Eagles

Terrell Thomas is another inexperienced player, while both Joselio Hanson and Ellis Hobbs are experienced corners.

Hobbs was the No. 2 corner for a Super Bowl team.

FS: Advantage Giants

Kenny Phillips improved greatly last year, while free safety is still a bit of an unknown. If Demps plays, I think Phillips’ experience gives him the edge.

However, if Sean Jones starts at strong safety and the Eagles slide Quintin Mikell to this side, give the Eagles a huge edge.

Mikell is the best safety in the division. 

SS: Advantage Eagles

No matter how you slice it, the Eagles have the edge here. Quintin Mikell is a playmaker, while Sean Jones had five interceptions last year. Michael Johnson had a nice year for a rookie, but he is still improving as a player.

No matter who starts here, I would give the Eagles an advantage. 

Overall Secondary: Advantage Eagles

The teams are fairly well-matched.

The thing to notice is that neither team has a huge advantage at any position. The teams have very few to no weaknesses.

Should be entertaining NFC East battle.

 

In terms of matchups

I like the Eagles’ secondary over the Giants’ wide receivers, and I think the Giants’ run game will be a bit of a stalemate. Jacobs will have a couple of big runs, but for the most part the Eagles will limit the bleeding.

Expect 17-20 points for the Giants.

On the other side, the Giants will be one of the few teams the Eagles will fail to light the scoreboard up against. The run will be almost completely shut down, but I believe the Eagles will make plays on short passes to Brian Westbrook, Lesean McCoy, Brent Celek, and Desean Jackson to keep the chains moving on back-breaking third downs.

Expect about 20 points for the Eagles. 

These will be close, tough games.

I expect turnovers to be the deciding outcome. In addition to having a slightly smoother offense, I think the Eagles are better at taking care of the ball and forcing turn overs, so I give them a slight edge head-to-head (though I think they will split the season series). 

In terms of facing the rest of the league, both teams should have a similar level of success because each has the ability to dominate other teams in certain aspects.

 

NFL Preview: Division-by-division

OTA’s are over, and we generally know what the rosters will look like. With that in mind, let’s take a look at each division and predict the records.

 

AFC East

1.  New England Patriots 13-3: New faces in the secondary, youth at linebacker, and the return of Tom Brady are all signs of big things to come in New England. I really like the addition of Fred Taylor, who will be a solid complement to Kevin Faulk and Laurence Maroney, and Joey Galloway, who will be a reliable target opposite Randy Moss and Wess Welker. The schedule isn’t exactly what I’d call easy, but there are at least 12 wins on the schedule and I’ll personally go with 13.

2.  New York Jets 9-7: Let the Sanchez era begin. I think Mark Sanchez has the moxie, experience in big games and skill to be a decent starter.  But I don’t like the Jets’ receivers, and there are still questions in pass protection. The Jets could go 10-6, but I see at least one trap game pulling them to 9-7. They’ll be ready to challenge the Patriots in 2010. 

3.  Buffalo Bills 8-8: Eight wins may be giving this team too much credit, but the addition of Terrell Owens to an already intriguing offense will help things.  The deep threat of TO will push safeties back, creating opportunities in the passing game for Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.  However, unless Aaron Maybin can be an immediate contributor, that pass rush is not taking them to the playoffs.

4.  Miami Dolphins 7-9: Perhaps my biggest surprise, I have the Dolphins going from first-to-worst. Why? The Wildcat should certainly generate some excitement, particularly with the addition of Pat White.  However, there are too many question marks (Ronnie Brown’s health, Chad Pennington’s health/consistency) and I just don’t see them repeating the success from a year ago. I don’t trust Pennington for the whole year, and I expect the Chad Henne era to begin next year. This will be a step back type of year for the Dolpins.

 

AFC North

1.  Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4: The Steelers return everyone from their Super Bowl team and could go for 13 wins. However, there are a couple of trap games (I’m looking at you, Green Bay) and the pass protection is still iffy. However, Ben Roethlisberger and the defense will carry them back to the playoffs.

2.  Baltimore Ravens 11-5: The Ravens could win most other divisions in football. They are just unfortunate to play in the AFC North. The loss of Bart Scott hurts, but they have a young offense, while the defense should be solid enough to get them to the playoffs again.

3.  Cincinnati Bengals 8-8: The Bengals recovered nicely at the end of last year. The return of Carson Palmer should help them, as will some nice improvements on defense.  Expect Ochocinco to have a big year, as well as Jerome Simpson. Inconsistency, injuries, and a tough division will keep them out of the playoffs though.

4.  Cleveland Browns 5-11: Brady Quinn will start.  Braylon Edwards will bounce back.  The defense will still be horrid, and the Browns will be the cellar dwellars in a formidable AFC North.

 

AFC South

1.  Indianapolis Colts: 11-5: With the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans improving, it only make the AFC South that much tougher.  However, for my money, I don’t think there will be a better offense in the NFL this year.  Donald Brown and Joseph Addai should be a lethal combination, while Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark will create headaches for other defenses. However, their run defense will continue to be mediocre. I don’t like the linebackers and I don’t like the D-Line besides Dwight Freeney. 

2.  Houston Texans 10-6: The Texans get their first playoff berth on the backs of an improved defense, a healthy Matt Schaub, a lethal passing attack, and a great sophomore effort from Steve Slaton. They’ll put points on the board and do enough on the defensive side of the ball to win. The Texans remind me of last year’s Falcons. 

3.  Tennessee Titans 8-8: The Haynesworth loss hurts. Big-time. The Titans will no longer be able to dominate teams in the running game, and Kerry Collins will be forced to win games. The defense is still good, but won’t be great. This reminds me of the Jaguars last year, where the loss of Marcus Stroud did severe damage to the defense. 

3.  Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8: They made some improvements at wide receiver, tackle, and on the defensive line. However, they play in a tough division. But the Jaguars are a sleeper and have some talent at key positions. Look for Maurice Jones-Drew to have a monster year. But, David Garrard does not have the consistency to lead this team to the playoffs.

 

AFC West

1.  San Diego Chargers 12-4: This has been a talented team for a while, and this year it should come together. The secondary has underachieved, but the talent is there.  Shawne Merriman is back, and despite a tough schedule (NFC East, AFC North), there are 12 wins on the table. The Chargers will put some points on the board and put some quarterbacks on their backs.

2.  Kansas City Chiefs 7-9: After a good draft, expect KC to improve. But that defense and the offensive line are still questionable. Matt Cassel will help, but this is not a playoff team.

3.  Oakland Raiders 6-10: They will sweep the Denver Broncos. Though the pick has been questioned, Darrius Heyward-Bey will at least stretch the field for JaMarcus Russell, allowing Darren McFadden and the backs some breathing room. However, the defensive line was not improved, and the run defense will be poor. 

4.  Denver Broncos 3-13: I hope the owner is kicking himself right now. Josh McDaniels has no idea what he’s doing, and for him the Broncos fired a two-time Super Bowl winning coach, a Pro Bowl quarterback with a cannon arm, and angered their top receiver. There is some talent, but the offense has regressed and the defense is still poor (Brian Dawkins is not the same player he once was). This is a playoff team that has been run off the tracks by poor personnel management. Too bad for Brandon Marshall.  Too bad for Eddie Royal. Too bad for Knowshon Moreno. Too bad for Brian Dawkins, who probably thought he would have a shot at the Super Bowl before this mess happened.

 

NFC East

1.  Philadelphia Eagles 12-4: This team should win the Super Bowl. Jeremy Maclin has the size, speed, and athleticism to be a No. 1 receiver, DeSean Jackson could be the next Steve Smith. Combine that with a Pro Bowl-laden offensive line, the best quarterback in the division, a healthy Brian Westbrook spelled by LeSean McCoy, a Pro Bowl fullback, and improvement at tight end; there are no holes in this offense. On defense, free safety is a question mark, but only in the sense that we don’t know who will start there. Between Quintin Demps, Rashad Baker, Sean Jones, and Quintin Mikell, the competition should give way to two quality starters. Asante Samuel is the best cornerback whose name I can pronounce in the NFL, Sheldon Brown, Joselio Hanson, and Ellis Hobbs represent great depth, and Stewart Bradley is ready to be the next Brian Urlacher. Provided they stay healthy, you can write this down: The Eagles are THE team to beat in the NFC. 

2.  New York Giants 10-6: That front seven is scary, and the secondary has improved.  However, there are still issues offensively. The top-tier teams will beat the Giants by loading the box, and forcing Eli Manning to beat them on third down. The Giants’ receivers are young, but none of them demand double teams. The Giants will be able to dominate teams into submission by controlling the ball, but against a team like the Eagles, this advantage will be neutralized. 

3.  Dallas Cowboys 9-7: The early part of the schedule certainly bodes well.  They’ll get off to a good start, but the back end is brutal and I could see them losing five in a row to end the season. The talent is there, but that secondary is in shambles.  Aside from the aging Terrence Newman, there is no proven commodity. Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Jason Witten, Roy Williams, and Felix Jones will win plenty of shootouts, but they’ll lose some too. DeMarcus Ware can only do so much to make up for the holes in the secondary. 

4.  Washington Redskins 9-7: It won’t be good enough in the toughest division in football, but I like the Redskins more than most other people. Jason Campbell isn’t a gamebreaker, but he’s solid, especially when Clinton Portis is having a good game. I think Portis, Chris Cooley, Santana Moss, and the emergence of (hopefully) one rookie receiver could make the Redskins’ offense better than average. The O-line still has question mark at right tackle, but that defense is scary. If he is motivated (which I think he will be), Albert Haynesworth will be a force both against the pass and the run. Carlos Rogers leads an underrated secondary; however, they don’t have the ability to dominate any one area that other teams do and the Redskins will find themselves losing a lot of close games. Maybe in a different division they’re a playoff team, but not this one.

 

NFC North

1.  Minnesota Vikings 11-5: People forget that even without consistency at quarterback, this team made the playoffs last year. The Williams’ are aging, but the run defense will still be excellent, and the secondary will be good enough with that pass rush. Adrian Peterson is an offense all by himself, and I think the passing attack (with or without Brett Favre) will be good enough to win games. They’re not going to come from behind a lot, but with big plays and ball control from AP, and constant pressure on the other team’s quarterback, they’ll keep control of the NFC North.

2.  Green Bay Packers 10-6: Nobody is talking about these guys, but they have quietly made a lot of good moves. BJ Raji will be able to contribute immediately, and I think the 3-4 will be an improvement from last year. Aaron Rodgers is better than Phillip Rivers, and probably should have made the Pro Bowl over Eli Manning last year. My one question: Can they run the ball? Ryan Grant wore down last year. The Packers need to use Brandon Jackson more effectively to spell Ryan Grant. However, I think the talent they have passing the ball will open things up for Grant, and the improved defense will help them win some of the close games they would have otherwise lost last year. They will sneak into the playoffs.

3.  Chicago Bears 9-7: This is not what Bears fans will expect, but I don’t see them getting to the playoffs. Jay Cutler is a great player, but Devin Hester is not a proven commodity. Their offense will be better. Pounding the ball to Matt Forte to set up play action will be good enough to beat a lot of teams, but not the heavy hitters. The Bears’ offense will be a poor man’s version of the Giants’ offense (except for Greg Olsen, he’s a beast). The reason they won’t make the playoffs is the inability to generate pass rush.  They did nothing to improve this during the offseason.

4.  Detroit Lions 3-13:  Year one of the Stafford era will have some ups, but their O-Line is going to be leaky. Matthew Stafford will find some kind of a rhythm with Brandon Pettigrew and Calvin Johnson, but they won’t be able to run the ball and they won’t be able to stop the run. However, they are moving in the right direction.

 

NFC South

1.  Atlanta Falcons 10-6: They have a tough schedule, but the offense should be in the top five. I don’t know how one game plans for Michael Turner, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez (all elite players at their position) and Jerious Norwood. Matt Ryan will find that it’s easy to break out with so many weapons. The defense has improved, but teams will still be able to run on them, as Peria Jerry will need to improve in this area. However, they are good enough to win this division.

2.  New Orleans Saints 9-7: Another tough schedule, but the secondary will be better with Jabari Greer and Malcolm Jenkins. Reggie Bush should bounce back, and a healthy Marques Colston-Drew Brees combination will be lethal. However, they have a tough schedule, and I think the defense will let them down in big games.

3.  Carolina Panthers 8-8: The run offense sets up big plays for Steve Smith, but Jake Delhomme isn’t good enough to win games on his own. The defense was not great last year, and I think Atlanta and New Orleans’ upgrades will push them past the Panthers.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13: Purely a rebuilding year. They’ve got to hope that Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham, and Antonio Bryant take some pressure off Josh Freeman. That defense will give up a lot of points. 

 

NFC West

1.  Arizona Cardinals 11-5: They’ll lose some games at the beginning of the year, but this team is simply too talented to lose this division. The offense should be two-dimensional this year. They ran the ball effectively at the end of the year and added Chris Wells. On defense, Adrian Wilson is a Pro Bowler, and Darnell Dockett will head a stronger run defense. On paper, the Cardinals should definitely win the division, but don’t be surprised to see them at .500 as late as week 11 before they turn up the jets and win a few games in a row. 

2.  Seattle Seahawks 7-9: This is a talented team, but TJ Houshmandzadeh is not the answer at wide receiver. They don’t have a running game, Matt Hasselbeck has been inconsistent. The defense will keep them in a lot of games, but they aren’t a playoff team right now.

3. San Francisco 49ers 5-11: I hate to say it, but that schedule is too tough for this team. It’s a shame, because the 49ers have a good coach, a franchise running back, a couple of explosive receivers in Josh Morgan and Michael Crabtree, and a pretty good defense. But at Philly, Arizona (2), Atlanta, at Houston, at Indy, at Green Bay, make for seven guaranteed losses. the 49ers would still have to face Chicago, at Seattle, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and at Minnesota. Mike Singletary has this team a year and a quarterback away from the playoffs, though.

4.  St. Louis Rams 3-13: Purely a rebuilding year. Marc Bulger has tailed off, and Donnie Avery is his only weapon. Jason Smith will not immediately stop the bleeding in pass protection, and that defense is still porous.

AFC Playoffs

1.  New England Bye

2.  Pittsburgh Bye

Wild Card Games

6 Houston @ 3 San Diego: San Diego wins

5 Baltimore @ 4 Indianapolis: Indianapolis wins

Divisional Playoffs

4 Indianapolis @ 1 New England: New England wins

3 San Diego @ 2 Pittsburgh: San Diego wins

Conference Championship

3 San Diego @ 1 New England: New England wins

NFC Playoffs

1. Philadelphia Bye

2. Arizona Bye

Wild Card Games

6 New Orleans @ 3 Atlanta: Green Bay wins

5 New York Giants @ 4 Minnesota: Minnesota wins

Divisional Playoffs

Green Bay @ Philadelphia: Philadelphia wins

Minnesota @ Arizona: Arizona wins

Conference Championship

Arizona @ Philadelphia: Philadelphia wins

Super Bowl XXXXIV:

Philadelphia over New England.

Super Bowl MVP: Donovan McNabb.

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