Fourth & 1 Debate: Fantasy Football Sleeper Keepers

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks .

Hatty, of www.hattywaiverwireguru.com , was responsible for this week’s Fourth & 1 Roundtable debate topic.

Click here to see the full article .

 

This Week’s Topic :

“The regular season is almost over and dynasty leaguers are picking their keepers. Everyone knows to keep Fitzgerald, Peterson, and the like, but who are some sleeper keepers for next year?”

My Response :

The first name that comes to mind is Miles Austin .

He enters this week with 1230 receiving yards and 11 TDs. His numbers are bloated by the 421 yards and 4 TDs he had before and after the Cowboys’ bye, as he had seven games with fewer than 50 yards receiving.

Still, he’s a big, strong WR that will turn 26 this Summer. He has a good rapport with Tony Romo and should continue to develop into one of the league’s best WRs. The only issue I see is his contract, but rest assured, Jerry Jones won’t let his prized WR walk away.

Another keeper that came out of nowhere was Jamaal Charles . When you look at his production from Week 10 on you can’t help but wonder why he wasn’t given an opportunity sooner.

Charles showed he could handle the full load, averaging 21.8 carries in Weeks 13-16. He also showed the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield with 39 receptions entering Week 17. Finally, he showed big play ability. He truly was Chris Johnson Lite the last half of the year, and makes an intriguing keeper option heading into 2010.

Panelists
RC of www.junkyardjake.com
Ryan Lester of www.lesterslegends.com
Paul Greco of www.fantasypros911.com
Bryce McRae of www.kffl.com
Kurt Turner of www.top-fantasy-football.com
Lee of www.footballjabber.com
Smitty of www.fantasyfootballxtreme.com
Jacob of www.fantasyfootballfools.com
Hatty of www.hattywaiverwireguru.com

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Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 17

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks .

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.

I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up, I’ll occasionally do some two-on-one matchups, or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

 

Last Week

Alex Smith over Peyton Manning: Winner, Smith 15.2, Peyton 9.6

Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson: Loser, Beanie 15.3, LT 18.3

Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson: Incomplete, Grant 21.7, S-Jax DNP

Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2: Winner, Ocho 8.9, Marshall 6.2 (4.2 actual +2)

Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek: Loser, Finley 8.0, Celek 18.1

SS: Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles: Loser, Snelling 7.4, Charles 12.4

Regular Picks: 2-2
Super Stretch Pick: 0-1
Overall: 2-3

 

Season Record

Regular Picks: 37-39-1

Super Stretch Picks:  6-12

Overall: 43-51-1

 

Week 17

Jay Cutler over Tony Romo

Cutler is coming off of a big game against the Vikings. He should dominate the Lions and actually make a run at evening his TD-to-INT ratio. Philadelphia will wake up the echoes of Romo’s December struggles.

 

Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones

I’m going with the rookie over the veteran in this Week 17 matchup. Moreno faces Kansas City’s 31st-ranked run defense (161.3 yards per game). Thomas Jones faces Cincinnati’s second-ranked run defense (87.7 ypg). The Bengals have allowed half as many rushing TDs as well.

 
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams

It’s been a forgettable year for Matt Forte as he saw a significant drop in his production. Ricky Williams was the exact opposite. This week though, it will look more like everybody anticipated from these two. Forte should destroy the Lions’ 24th-ranked run defense (125.7 ypg), while Williams should struggle against the Steelers’ 3rd-ranked run defense (89.3 ypg). Pittsburgh has allowed 12 fewer rushing TDs. 

Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco

Washington takes on Seattle, who has allowed 27 passing TDs on the year. Washington is a good bet to burn the Seahawks deep. Meanwhile, Ochocinco has to lock horns with Darrelle Revis, who has been shutting WRs down all year.

 

Steve Breaston over Miles Austin

Breaston faces Green Bay. Despite ranking 12th with 220.7 passing yards per game, the Packers have allowed 28 passing TDs, which ranks 29th in the league in that category. The Eagles held Austin to just one catch the last time they played. I’m expecting Romo to struggle, so why not hitch my cart to that prediction.

Super Stretch

Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (Individually)

I suspect Michael Turner will be out again this week, which means Snelling would get the bulk of the work. He takes on Tampa Bay, who ranks 30th against the run (156.5 ypg) and has allowed 16 rushing TDs. Beanie and Hightower are both capable of putting up solid games, though they will likely struggle against Green Bay’s No. 1 run defense (85.7 ypg, 5 TDs).

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

2009 NFL Pro Bowl Snubs

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

The Pro Bowl rosters are pretty much what they should be. But there are always some guys who get snubbed. Let’s take a look at them.

 

Quarterback

While some are calling for Ben Roethlisberger to make the roster over Tom Brady, I actually think Brady deserves it over Big Ben.

However, I do feel that Matt Schaub should be ahead of both of them.

All he’s done is lead the league in passing yards. He doesn’t have a No. 2 WR, plus he lost his tight end and No. 2 target (Owen Daniels) halfway through the year. He trumps Brady and Big Ben in completion percentage, completions, and passer rating. He has one fewer TD than Brady, but four more than Ben. Plus, he has half the sacks against him as Ben.

In the NFC, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Donovan McNabb deserve to be mentioned, but none have had the year Brett Favre has.

 

Running Back

Cedric Benson gets mentioned as a snub, but I think the AFC got it right. Chris Johnson and Maurice-Jones Drew had amazing seasons. Ray Rice didn’t have the TDs, but his total yards and the way he carried the Ravens make him a wise selection. I’d actually put Thomas Jones in over Benson.

In the NFC, I like the picks of Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson. DeAngelo Williams, on the other hand, should not have been picked; Frank Gore and Ryan Grant are both more deserving. I’ll give the nod to Gore since he doesn’t have quite the surrounding cast Grant does.

 

Wide Receiver

I can’t argue with Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, or Reggie Wayne. Brandon Marshall is questionable. Randy Moss, Vincent Jackson, and Chad Ochocinco are in the conversation. Given the QB situation Marshall has, I’ll stick with him despite Moss having more yards and TDs.

In the NFC, it’s between Sidney Rice, Roddy White, and New York’s Steve Smith for the final WR spot. In the end, I think they made the right call: Rice has made some unbelievable catches this year.

 

Tight End

I’m in total agreement in the AFC: Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are easily the most deserving.

In the NFC, I think they missed the boat by picking Jason Witten. He had a ton of yards, but just one TD. Meanwhile, Brent Celek had a similar yardage total, but had seven more TDs. I would have even taken Tony Gonzalez over him.

 

Other Snubs

London Fletcher got jobbed. Jonathan Vilma had a nice year, but can’t London catch a break? He had 24 more tackles than Vilma. I kind of hope the Saints make the Super Bowl so Fletcher can make it as a replacement.

Leon Hall is a shutdown cornerback that picked off six passes. With all respect to Nnamdi Asomugha, I think Hall should have gotten the call.

DeSean Jackson made the team as a WR. Why not reward Percy Harvin for his impressive rookie season? He was also an electric return man.

I would absolutely go David Diehl at Left Tackle over Bryant McKinnie.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com.

 

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Detroin Lions Running Back Kevin Smith Done for the Year

 

Detroit’s misery continues as second-year RB Kevin Smith (knee) is done for the year.  The timing couldn’t be worse as the first week of the fantasy playoffs are wrapping up. Hopefully you have other options on your roster, but if not, here are some guys that could be available.

 

Quinton Ganther, RB, Washington Redskins

Ganther had 93 total yards and 2 TDs against Oakland this week. They face the Giants and Cowboys the next two weeks.

 

Arian Foster, Houston Texans

Foster had 88 total yards last week and was named the starting back for the Texans. It’s a perfect week for him to step into that role as St. Louis is up next.

 

Chris Jennings, Cleveland Browns

Jennings has 73 yards against the Steelers, and should have even more running room against the Chiefs next week. Then he has the Raiders in Week 16.

 

Maurice Morris, Detroit Lions

If the waiver wire got picked over, you can stay at home and take Morris. I don’t like either of his next two match-ups (Arizona, San Francisco), but if he’s all that’s out there, you don’t have a choice.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football: Talkin’ About Practice Week 14

New Daddy Tom Brady missed practice today. He’s locked and loaded to play this week against Carolina.

Jake Delhomme (finger) missed practice and likely won’t play this week. That sound is Panthers fans celebrating. Matt Moore will make the start, but he shouldn’t be used against the Patriots.

Monday Night darling  Jermichael Finley (knee) was limited in practice, but should be good to go as the Pack takes on the Bears.

DeSean Jackson (concussion) was able to practice and should face the Giants this weekend. Meanwhile, Jeremy Maclin (foot) missed practiced, though he’s expected to play as well.

Steven Jackson (back) was held out of practice. He should play this week, but you have to start worrying about the Rams shutting him down for the year in this lost season.

Chris Johnson missed practice today, but don’t worry unless he can’t go tomorrow.

Matt Ryan (toe) missed practice today, but appears on pace to return this week against New Orleans. I would make alternate plans.

Mark Sanchez (knee) will miss a golden opportunity as the Jets take on the Bucs this weekend. Unfortunately Sanchez won’t play. Kellen Clemens will get the start, but he provides about as much excitement as Jon & Kate reuniting.

Matt Schaub (shoulder) was able to practice today and she be able to face Seattle this weekend.

Mike Sims-Walker (knee) was limited in practice today, but should be fine when they take on the Dolphins. Maurice-Jones Drew was also held out of practice to keep him fresh.

Steve Slaton was put on season-ending IR. Chris Brown is officially the starter. It would be hard to trust him in the fantasy playoffs, but if you’re that desperate, go ahead and use him this week against Seattle.

Matthew Stafford (shoulder) is out this week. It’s not like you were going to use him against Baltimore anyway. Daunte Culpepper will get the start. Blah.

Michael Turner (ankle) missed practice today. Personally I think they should sit him one more game.

Hines Ward (hamstring) was limited in practice this week, and could fall victim to the scheduling of their game. They play tomorrow night, which likely doesn’t give him enough time to heal. Ward is a tough S.O.B., and his finger-pointing at Big Ben could see him play against the Browns, but he’s not worth the risk. Mike Wallace should see more looks.

DeAngelo Williams (ankle) was able to practice today and is in line to face the Patriots. Jonathan Stewart , who routinely misses Wednesday practice, will share the load. Neither are particularly strong plays this week.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Matt Ryan Out Week 13

It’s never too early to start planning for next week’s fantasy match-up, especially as the fantasy playoffs draw near. Even though their is an epic Patriots-Saints game tonight, those of you that own Matt Ryan have other issues on  your mind.

The second-year QB has already been ruled out for Week 13. Maybe they learned their lesson after the way they handled Michael Turner’s injury. He should have never played last week, but that’s a different story for another day.

It’s nice to know he’s out before waiver claims are set. Ryan owners don’t have to hold out hope like Big Ben and Kurt Warner owners did last week.

So who should you pick up?

Chris Redman, Atlanta Falcons
In deep leagues you won’t many choices, especially not ones with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez at their disposal.

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
If he’s available in your league, he’s a nice plug-in play this week. He plays extremely well at home, which is where the Jags play this week.

Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
The Niners have turned into a pass-first team because of their personnel. They play the Seahawks who have been fantasy-friendly to opposing QBs.

Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos
The long rest between games should do his ankle well. He’s a nice play against Kansas City this week.

Vince Young, Tennessee Titans
I don’t see VY throwing for a ton of yards against the Colts, but he should produce with his feet and do enough with his arm to be a decent emergency fantasy play.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 12

Before we get started, click here for my Week 12 NFL Picks .

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.

To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one match-ups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Matthew Stafford over Joe Flacco:  Winner Stafford 41.8, Flacco 12.6  
Jason Snelling over Ryan Grant:  Winner Snelling 20.9, Grant 20.5
Beanie Wells over Marion Barber:  WinnerBeanie14.5, MB3 10.7
Sidney Rice over Vincent Jackson:  Winner Rice 20.9, V-Jax 5.6
Pierre Garcon over Derrick Mason:  Loser Garcon 10.1, Mason 14.2
SS:  Jamal Lewis over Thomas Jones:  Loser Jamal 8.8, TJ 10.3

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 25-27
Super Stretch Picks:  4-9
Overall: 29-36

Week 12 Picks

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Yep, I’m doing it. I’m spotting Brees and Brady a point a piece. The two collide on Monday Night in a game you’ve probably saw hyped a shade under a million times by now.

Meanwhile, it’s Rodgers who I feel has the monster game of the week as he’s taking on Detroit on Thanksgiving. Detroit is dead last in passing yards allowed (275.3) and 31st in passing TDs allowed (24). What’s worse is they actually made Brady Quinn look like a good NFL QB last week.

Running Backs

Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson

I should have picked this match-up last week, but I’ll take my chances that Ricky can do it again. He faces Buffalo’s run defense that ranks 31st ranked in rushing yards allowed (165.9 yards per game) and rushing TDs allowed (15). Chris Johnson faces Arizona’s 15th ranked run defense, that has allowed just seven rushing TDs. 

Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai
I’ll ride Snelling’s hot hand. He takes on Tampa’s 32nd ranked run defense (168.9 yards per game). Addai faces Houston’s 22nd ranked run defense (120.6), but I think this one will be more about Peyton Manning than the running game.

Wide Receivers

Nate Burleson over Mike Sims-Walker

Sims-Walker has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this year. While he has put up monster numbers, his track record on the road is shaky this year. He has just 139 yards in four games (34.8 yards per game) with 1 TD. Meanwhile Nate takes on St. Louis, who ranks 21st in passing yards (248.0)

Michael Crabtree over Steve Smith (CAR)
Crabtree takes on Jacksonville’s pass defense that ranks 22nd with 250.0 passing yards allowed and tied for 24th with 17 passing TDs allowed. Smith should have his hands full as Darrelle Revis will look to give him the Randy Moss treatment. The Jets are fourth with 196.4 passing yards allowed and tied for first with 7 passing TDs allowed. Smith has also struggled on the road averaging just 58.6 receiving yards in five games with just one TD.


SUPER STRETCH

Kyle Boller over Jason Campbell
Boller is back leading the Rams attack thanks to Marc Bulger’s broken leg. He faces Seattle who is 23rd in passing yards allowed (238.7 per game) and 28th in passing TDs allowed (19). Campbell takes on the Eagles at the Linc. The Birds are tied for ninth with 200.8 passing yards allowed per game. Plus, Washington is down to their third RB, which should take its toll on their offense.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football Week 12: Talkin’ About Practice

Cedric Benson (hip) missed practice today. There won’t be an answer on his status until Sunday morning, so monitor the situation. If he didn’t have such a cushy matchup against Cleveland, I’d say hold off on him this week.

Reggie Bush (knee) returned to practice after missing last week’s game. He has an extra day of rest because, I’m not sure if you heard or not, the Saints take on the Patriots on MNF.

Laveranues Coles (chest) missed practice this week. He’s not an ideal play, but a decent WR3 or flex play in deeper leagues.

Steven Jackson (back) missed practice today. He’s a workhorse though, and he’ll play against Seattle this weekend.

Julius Jones (lung, ribs) did not practice, but is expected to play this weekend. I think he’ll be eased back into the lineup as Seattle uses this chance to continue to see what Justin Forsett brings to the table.

Marshawn Lynch (shoulder) was able to practice and is on target to play against the Dolphins. I don’t love him this week in anything other than a flex spot.

Ben Roethlisberger (concussion) was able to practice today, and it appears that he’ll foolishly play against Baltimore on Sunday. I pray that he doesn’t get hit in the head again. Not because I own him in any leagues, but because I think he should play it safe and sit a game out. It appears Kurt Warner will also play despite suffering a mild concussion, which makes even less sense given the Cardinals stranglehold on their division.

Tony Romo (back) was able to practice today, and he will be fine to take on the Raiders on Thanksgiving.

Steve Slaton (shoulder) missed practice today. It’s probably in part because they played on Monday Night Football. He should be good to go against the Colts on Sunday, but I wouldn’t suggest putting him in your lineup.

Michael Turner (ankle) was limited in practice, which is a good sign, but I don’t think he’ll be able to play this week. Meanwhile Jerious Norwood (hip) was able to practice and could return to action. He’ll remain a change of pace back as Jason Snelling earned the starting gig last week.

Kellen Winslow, Jr. (knee) was limited in practice, but the self-professed warrior will be able to play against Atlanta.

Jason Witten (foot) was limited in practice today. He’ll likely give it a go tomorrow, but I’m not sure you can trust him this week. He’s been one of the bigger fantasy busts this year. There, I said it.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 11 Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Cedric Benson (hip) didn’t practice this week. With Oakland on tap, I would be shocked if the Bengals risked Ced’s health this week.

Bernard Berrian (hamstring) and Brett Favre were both limited in practice today. They should both be fine against Seattle, but only Favre is worth a starting fantasy spot this week.

Steve Breaston (knee) was limited in practice again, but remains a strong WR3 this week against St. Louis.

I’m sure by now you’ve heard that Ronnie Brown is out for the year. I had high hopes for him coming into the year as he was over a year removed from his 2007 season-ending knee injury. He didn’t disappoint until he hurt his foot. That isn’t comforting to the fantasy owner (myself included) who is scrambling to replace him. His keeper and dynasty value took just as big of a hit. Can you really count on him as one of your key players?

Reggie Bush (knee) missed practice today. I’m starting to worry about his availability. Pierre Thomas owners should have their fingers crossed that he misses the game against Tampa Bay.

Todd Heap (ribs) missed practice. Now that the bye weeks are over, feel free to cut him loose if you have a solid starting TE.

Brandon Marshall (back) was able to practice today. I’d have a lot more faith in him if his QB situation wasn’t so shaky. Kyle Orton (ankle) is trying to gut it out and Chris Simms was awful last week. You have to play him if he’s good to go, but don’t expect another strong showing.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football: Talkin’ About Practice Week 11

Cedric Benson (hip) missed practice today. The Bengals are putting on a front that he’ll play, but a wiser move would be to let him have a week to heal. They are facing the Raiders after all. Why jeopardize a Super Bowl caliber season against a bottom dweller?

Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) maintained his practice of sitting out practice despite coming off last week” bye. He should be good to go against  Atlanta.

Steve Breaston (knee) was limited in practice today, but makes is an excellent WR3 play against St. Louis this weekend.

Ronnie Brown (ankle) won’t play in tomorrow night’s game and rumors are swirling that he’ll miss the rest of the season. Don’t do anything drastic until that has been confirmed.

Reggie Bush (knee) missed practice today. It’s likely just cautionary and you should use him as you would normally.

Antonio Bryant (knee) was able to practice today, but I’m sure most fantasy owners have moved on. You can’t use Bryant this week even if he’s a go.

Julius Jones (lung) won’t play this week. Depending on how well Justin Forsett plays over the next couple of week’s JJ could lose his job while he’s out.

Sammy Morris (knee) was limited in practice today. Even if he is able to play against the Jets, he is too much of a risk to play at this point.

Kyle Orton (ankle) missed practice today. The Broncos are holding out hope that he’ll be able to play when the collide with the Chargers for first place. Even if he can go, he doesn’t make a good fantasy play this week.

Jonathan Stewart (heel) had to break his pattern of ducking out on Wednesday practice because they play the Dolphins tomorrow night. Despite the short week, J-Stew will be fine.

Michael Turner (ankle) will miss this weekend’s game, and likely a couple more. Jason Snelling makes a nice start this week against the G-Men, who have allowed more than their share of rushing TDs.

Brian Westbrook (concussion) won’t play this weekend either. He would be smart to take the rest of the season off.  Clinton Portis , also suffering from a concussion hasn’t been ruled out, but he’s long shot at best to play.

Roddy White (knee) missed practice today, but there is little risk that he won’t be able to go this weekend.

DeAngelo Williams (knee) on the other hand sat out of practice. It is merely precautionary, and expect D-Will to have a strong showing against the Dolphins.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

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