2009 AFC Predictions and Analysis

AFC EAST

4.) Miami Dolphins (6-10)

First to worst? Welcome to the AFC. The Dolphins had a great season last year no question, but a lot of players overachieved. Chad Pennington and Joey Porter enjoyed franchise seasons. While the offensive line is still relatively solid, and the running game full of potential, I think the passing game takes a big step back this year.

They drafted like they were the Colts or Steelers, picking up situational guys in early rounds, but they aren’t and this season will prove it.

3.) Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Their offensive line? Full of questions. Their passing game? I’m not sold on Trent Edwards. But Terrell Owens plays big in his first year with a new team? The dude is 35, and look, the Cowboys wanted him to put up pro bowl numbers last year (he was the most thrown to guy on the team).

The truth is that he just isn’t great anymore, and that giant ego of his can’t handle that. Their running game? Mershawn Lynch struggled to net 4.0 YPC behind a line anchored by Jason Peters. Fred Jackson will take over the workload by year’s end. On defense, this is a good team. But their offense will do them in, in a tough AFC.

2.) New York Jets (10-6)

I think they are this year’s Baltimore Ravens. The Bart Scott signing makes the linebacking core pretty decent, and if Vernon Gholston can materialize under Rex Ryan, this might well be the best linebacking core in the NFL.

The secondary is very solid as with a pro bowl quality safety and corner, they finally found depth to complement the stars back there. I’m not sold on the pass rush, but Jenkins is one of the league’s top nose tackles in terms of stopping the run so this should be a top 10 defense.

On offense, the line is solid, the running game borderline top five and as long as Mark Sanchez can have a Joe Flacco like impact (I don’t think an 80 QB rating and 3,000 yards) is far fetched, they will clock manage their way to a lot of victories.

Remember, they were 9-7 last year with a terrible season at quarterback (Farve’s pro bowl birth was an absolute joke), poor coaching and less skilled personnel on defense.

WINNER: New England Patriots (13-3)

I suppose this one was pretty obvious. But really who else could it be? With Tom Brady back, this immediately becomes the best passing team in the NFL and I firmly expect Wes Welker to have one of the three most productive seasons at receiver in the NFL. Even without Vrabel, I love this linebacking core.

And while working at ESPN Radio 1050, I had the opportunity to ask Jet center Nick Mangold who the best defensive tackle in football. Albert Haynesworth, I asked. “He’s alright.But Vince Wilkford, man, he might be the best.”

The secondary figures to be vastly improved with all the off season and draft acquisitions. So if you can’t run against them and can’t pass against them, how can you keep up with them?

I don’t expect Fred Taylor to have a Corey Dillon like impact, and think the running game will struggle, allowing teams to potentially come back on them late in games.

Oddly enough, because of this, I think the most important player in assessing whether or not they return to the super bowl isn’t Tom Brady but Brandon Merriweather at safety. If he could limit other team’s big play ability, the Patriots have a shot at 16-0 again because you know Brady will get his. 

AFC NORTH

4.) Cincinatti Bengals (4-12)

It’s a pity. I truly believe Carson Palmer is one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. But he’s like David Carr was in Houston in terms of offensive line protection with a worse running game and no Andre Johnson. He gets nothing on the ground, and Chad Johnson is a shell of his former self.

Sure, they drafted Andre Smith but this guy is a head case I don’t trust protecting my franchise QB’s blindside. This offense is dreadful in every sense of the word, and quite frankly, the defense isn’t much better. But they do have a pretty good kicker, after all they franchised him, right? They’re almost as bad as Al Davis.

3.) Baltimore Ravens (6-10)

I know the five game drop off will shock a lot of people, but I do believe this is a fall back season for Raven football. In his first year, Joe Flacco was a game manager and a good one, but he didn’t win football games the way Matt Ryan did. He won 11 games because he had a solid running game and defense protecting him but I think both of those drop off this year.

Willis McGahee isn’t getting younger, and the wear and tear dating all the way back to his college years in Miami are catching up. And where are Flacco’s targets? Derrick Mason? Please. The excitement of having a new coach will run off, and at the end of the day this is closer to the 2007 squad that ended with the coach getting fired.

2.) Cleveland Browns (8-8)

Surprising pick here at 8-8, isn’t it? It was surprising when they won 10 games two years ago, but their schedule which did them in much year is much better and don’t forget that Eric Mangini garnered the title Mangenius after leading a very mediocre Jet team to a 10-6 record in his first season.

I think Brady Quinn makes strides, and Braylon Edwards has a big contract year. Going center was the right move as Mangini has an eye for them (eg: Mangold). I still don’t like their pass rush, and hate their running game.

WINNER: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Surprise, surprise, huh? The scary thing about this franchise is they draft so well, they seem to be improving year in and year out. Big Ben is such a great leader, and Holmes and Ward are one of the best combos at WR, and Limas Sweed has the skill to outproduce Nate Washington.

Then there’s the running game where they’ll be getting Rashard Mendenhall (their first round pick in 2008) back. Expect 1,000 yards plus from him and another 600-800 from Willie Parker.

Their offensive line still isn’t great, but the offense might well be. On defense, they have so many playmakers it’s somewhat scary. And you know as long as Mike Tomlin is in charge, there won’t be a superbowl hangover.

NFC SOUTH

4.) Tennessee Titans (7-9)

It feels weird putting them in last place, because there’s so much talent here but in an ultra competetive NFC South, last year’s first will be this year’s…

I still love this running game, no question, perhaps the best in the NFL and the offensive line and special teams are highly underrated, but frankly, Kerry Collins doesn’t do it for me at QB and his receivers don’t scare me one bit.

The loss of Albert Haynesworth will be felt throughout this defense, not only against the run but in generating a pass rush. Vince Young will finish the season

3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)

This is a team who to me vastly improved in the draft. Eugene Monroe will be an anchor on this offensive line, and he might well not even be the best tackle they drafted. Maurice Jones Drew will have a big year rushing the ball, and David Garrard will finally have some protection.

I expect their defense to be vastly improved, and Jack Del Rio keeps them in the hunt till December

2.) Houston Texans (10-6)

About time, huh? Although the offensive line isn’t anything close to great, I love all these skill position players. Andre Johnson is a big stage away from showing he is every bit as good as Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve Slayton is an MVP waiting to happen.

But after trading Rosenfelds, Matt Shaub’s health is an absolute must for this team to make the postseason.

On defense, as long as the secondary can match the pass rush, this is an above average unit. I think they finally get there.

WINNER: Colts (11-5)

Another real surprise of a division winner, huh? Donald Brown was a great choice to bolster this offense, and I think Anthony Gonzalez will break out which will only make Reggie Wayne better. Manning claims another division title.

But on defense? Do they intimidate anybody? Bob Sanders will have to stay healthy for them to hold off the other three teams.

NFC WEST

4.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-13)

Matt Cassell struggles big time. I actually like Dwayne Bowe a lot, but opposing teams can double cover him whenever they want. The offensive line still needs a ton of work, and I don’t trust Larry Johnson or Jamaal Charles long term. Defensively, they have holes galore.

3.) Oakland Raiders (4-12)

What an awful draft on every level. JaMarcus Russell fails to develop into anything somewhat decent in year 3, which casts a cloud over a huge breakout season from Darren McFadden. The secondary is great once again, but it doesn’t matter when you can run for 200 yards a game against them.

2.) Denver Broncos (7-9)

I actually think the Knowshown Moreno pick, though stupid long term, will pay dividends short term. He will be a beast in the Denver system behind that line, and clock control a few victories. Kyle Orton, though quite the flawed specimen, has a great receiving corpse and more than decent tight end.

On defense, they made strides and Champ Bailey will bounce back strong. Still, there are too many holes.

WINNER: Chargers (12-4)

The AFC really is the conference of the big 4. Oddly enough, I don’t expect LaDanian Tolminson to surpass 1,000 yards or come very close for that matter but I expect Philip Rivers to take yet another step forward. The man, IMO, deserved the MVP last season and he’s only getting better.

Sure, he’s a punk but look at his stats and what he was able to accomplish with an awful defense, a poor running game and a receiving corps that doesn’t include anything remotely resembling a Plaxico Burress or Hines Ward.

On defense, Shawne Merriman will be a huge addition as he comes back, Luis Castillo is a great pass rusher/run stuffer, and I think the Larry English pick was actually a good one and will be felt from day 1. They remind me a lot of the 2007 Giants with the deep defensive line. We’ll see.

AFC MVP: Philip Rivers

Offensive Player of the Year: Wes Welker

Defensive Player of the Year: Shawne Merriman

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Sanchez

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Darius Butler

WILDCARD ROUND:

(3) San Diego Chargers defeat (6) Houston Texans

(5) New York Jets upset (4) Indianapolis Colts

DIVISIONAL ROUND:

(1) New England Patriots defeat (5) New York Jets

(3) San Diego Chargers upset (2) Pittsburgh Steelers

CONFERENCE GAME

(3) San Diego Chargers defeat (1) New England Patriots

2009 NFC Predictions

Every year the NFL is full of surprises. Few if any predicted that the Cardinals would make the superbowl, and few if any people had the Falcons finishing 11-5. But these two NFC teams came out of nowhere to contend, and now it is my job to predict who this year’s surprises will be and what teams who were successful last year will be this year’s disappointments.

I think that the Eagles, Bears, Packers, Saints and Seahawks will exceed expectations while I think that the Redskins, Cowboys, Vikings, Panthers, Buccaneers and Cardinals will disappoint their fans.

NFC EAST

4.) Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Tony Romo is a great QB, and Marion Barber is a solid RB and there is definite depth behind him, but I don’t like this receiving corps at all and outside of the finesse outside linebackers, there isn’t much they have to stop anybody. I think they’ll lose all 6 of their division games.

3.) Washington Redskins (9-7)

Clinton Portis is a great RB, but he tires out as the season progresses, and the passing game just isn’t working. On the defensive side, this team is solid from top to bottom.

2.) New York Giants (11-5)

This is a solid team, but I think the passing game will lose them a few games.

WINNER: Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)

I don’t agree with Reid calling Jason Peters the best tackle in football, but he is a major upgrade and McNabb arguably has the best weapons surrounding him that he has had in his career—as Desean Jackson is ready to become a pro bowler and Jeremy Maclin will be a burner. It’s now or never for Philly, and I think everyone on the roster gets that.

NFC NORTH

4.) Detroit Lions (1-15)

Even with a solid draft, they didn’t do nearly enough on defense. There are modest improvements but I still don’t see them stopping anyone. I think they catch a team by surprise sometime during the winter, but there will be talk of another 0-16 campaign following them through the first half of the season.

The defense outside of Ernie Simms is awful. The offensive line is terrible, and that won’t make things easy for Kevin Smith who is a REAL talent at running back. Expect all pro Calvin Johnson to demand a trade by year’s end.

3.) Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

I love the defense and the running game, but I still don’t trust the quarterback play. The offensive line, though still strong, doesn’t figure to be as good as the past couple of seasons.

2.) Green Bay Packers (9-7)

The Packers are always a strong bounce back team, and I don’t think this year will be any different. Aaron Rodgers is solid at QB, and even though I don’t trust Ryan Grant as my franchise QB, I think the defense will be much better this season. B.J. Raji will play a big part in this turn around, and I expect to see A.J. Hawk in the pro bowl with this new scheme.

WINNER: Chicago Bears (11-5)

They gave up a ton to get Jay Cutler, sure, but I think he is a true leader and even though he doesn’t have many weapons, I think he’ll still be put up close to 4,000 yards and come through in the clutch.

Matt Forte isn’t as great as he was considered as his 3.9 YPC indicates, but he’ll be huge in the passing game and I like the draft selection of Iglesias. The defense is always strong, and there is very little standing in the way of Chicago making a return to the playoffs.

NFC SOUTH

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

This team still has a lot of needs left in this rebuilding process, and though I think they’ll play competetive football, I just don’t see them having much of a shot in this division.

3.) Carolina Panthers (7-9)

There are still a lot of questions. Will Jake Delhomme’s confidence be back? Can DeAngelo Williams recreate his 20 TD campaign? Does Julius Peppers become a distraction? I am a firm believer that all 3 of those questions won’t be answered the way the Panthers are hoping. As John Fox’s job is somewhat secure after last season, the same pressure to win now just isn’t there.

2.) Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

I expect this to be a high flying offense with a lot of flaws on defense. I don’t think you can trust John Abraham to stay healthy, even with playing limited time for another full season.

WINNER: New Orleans Saints (10-6)

I absolutely love the selection of Malcom Jenkins over Beanie Wells. This secondary looks to be much improved, and there is no reason to assume they won’t be a playoff team this season.

NFC WEST

4.) San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

Too many questions with the quarterback situation, and I don’t see Frank Gore staying healthy. Crabtree won’t be a star till year two.

3.) St. Louis Rams (7-9)

The Jason Smith pick will pay off, and this offense will be much improved. Look for a bounce back year from Marc Bulger.

2.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

Kurt Warner will struggle to recreate last year’s success, and Beanie Wells’ big rookie campaign won’t be enough to vault them back into the playoffs.

WINNER: Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

They just squeeze in over the Cardinals. I think Hasselbeck will have a big year, and the defense will make tremendous strides.

NFC MVP: Drew Brees

Offensive Player: Brian Westbrook

Defensive Player: A.J. Hawk

Offensive Rookie: Chris “Beanie” Wells

Defensive Rookie: Malcom Jenkins

NFC PLAYOFFS

Wildcard Round:

(3) New Orleans Saints defeat (6) Green Bay Packers

(5) New York Giants upset (4) Seattle Seahawks

Divisional Round:

(1) Philadelphia Eagles defeat (5) New York Giants

(3) New Orleans Saints upset (2) Chicago Bears

Conference Championship:

(1) Philadelphia Eagles defeat (3) New Orleans Saints

NFL Sport Channel Latest

• Just How Far Would You Go?
• Sorry Rex, But It Isn’t Happening
• Super Bowl Predictions: Five Stat-Free Reasons Why the Eagles Will Reach The Super Bowl
• Seahawks Attempt to Turn Corner With Heavy Pursuit of Pete Carroll
• Bill Cowher Unlikely to Coach in 2010