NFL’s Most Overrated and Underrated Defenses of 2008

The current defensive rankings are flawed.  You cannot judge a team by yards alone as everyone seems to be doing as of late.  The defensive ranking should be yards/plays.  However, I’m going to do an adjustment to that as well since turnovers are a huge part of the game.  I’m subtracting 40 yards for each turnover that the teams took.  Here is the list:

POS	Team	Plays	Yds/Game	Yards	INT	FUMB	Adj. Yds/Play
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	974	237.2	3795	20	9	2.71
2	Baltimore Ravens	928	261.1	4177	26	8	3.04
3	Philadelphia Eagles	994	274.3	4389	15	14	3.25
4	Tennessee Titans	1,022	293.6	4698	20	11	3.38
5	Chicago Bears	1,087	334.7	5355	22	10	3.75
6	Minnesota Vikings	946	292.4	4679	12	13	3.89
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	945	306.1	4898	22	8	3.91
8	Dallas Cowboys	969	294.3	4709	8	14	3.95
9	New York Jets	1,020	329.4	5270	14	16	3.99
10	Indianapolis Colts	983	310.9	4975	15	11	4.00
11	New York Giants	931	292	4672	17	5	4.07
12	Arizona Cardinals	993	331.5	5304	13	17	4.13
13	Miami Dolphins	979	329	5264	18	12	4.15
14	Washington Redskins	933	288.8	4621	13	5	4.18
15	Carolina Panthers	1,026	331.2	5299	12	13	4.19
16	Cincinnati Bengals	1,013	325.5	5208	12	12	4.19
17	Green Bay Packers	1,003	334.3	5349	22	6	4.22
18	San Francisco 49ers	1,027	326	5216	12	6	4.38
19	New England Patriots	920	309	4944	14	8	4.42
20	Cleveland Browns	1,004	356.5	5704	23	8	4.45
21	San Diego Chargers	1,041	349.9	5599	15	9	4.46
22	Buffalo Bills	971	326.1	5217	10	12	4.47
23	New Orleans Saints	999	339.5	5432	15	7	4.56
24	Oakland Raiders	1,045	360.9	5775	16	8	4.61
25	Houston Texans	935	336.6	5385	12	10	4.82
26	Atlanta Falcons	998	348.2	5566	10	8	4.86
27	Kansas City Chiefs	1,041	393.2	6291	13	16	4.93
28	Seattle Seahawks	1,058	378	6048	9	11	4.96
29	Jacksonville Jaguars	922	330.9	5295	13	4	5.01
30	St. Louis Rams	975	371.9	5950	12	14	5.04
31	Denver Broncos	990	374.6	5993	6	7	5.53
32	Detroit Lions	1,009	404.4	6470	4	16	5.62

If we take this new ranking system and compare it to the old, outdated, and highly insufficient ranking system we can now see who is actually overrated and who is underrated.

The top five overrated defenses from 2008 are as follows:

5. New York Giants drop six places.

4. Buffalo Bills drop eight places.

3. New England Patriots drop nine places.

2. Washington Redskins drop 10 places.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars drop 12 places and are the most overrated defense of last year.

 

The top five underrated defenses from 2008 are as follows:

t5. Kansas City Chiefs increase four places.

t5. San Diego Chargers increase four places.

4. Cleveland Browns increase six places.

3. Arizona Cardinals increase seven places.

2. New York Jets increase seven places.

1. Chicago Bears increase 16 places—half of the teams, and are the most underrated defense in the league from 2008.

Chicago Bears: Using Statistics Correctly

There have been many Chicago Bear haters out there lately.  They all say the same old thing. 

Jay doesn’t have anyone to throw to.  Jay will get sacked all the time. The Bear defense was really bad last year.  How can a defense who is 30th against the pass be any good?

I’ve had to state this so many times it isn’t funny.  Does yards allowed per game tell you anything specifically about a defense?  Not really.  You don’t know how many plays were taken.  How about points a team allows?  Does that tell you anything specific about a defense?  Again, no.

Anyone who thinks otherwise should go back to High School.  Let’s take a closer look at some real stats that have actual meaning to them.

How do you know how good a line is?  By sacks allowed, right?  No.  You can’t get sacked on run plays.  You must take sacks divided by pass attempts.

Chicago quarterbacks were sacked 5.2 percent of each pass play.  That’s good for 12th which is better than average.  NFL team average has it at 5.9 percent.  So Chicago was already better than average at pass blocking. 

On top of that Chicago has improved their offensive line during the offseason.  So we can expect this to drop even less so now the Bears will have a way better than average pass blocking line on paper. 

Add in the fact that Jay Cutler is more mobile and this is starting to look a lot like another offensive line that Jay just left.  So why do they keep bringing the offensive line back up? 

So now we can take a look at the Bear defense.

Yes, Chicago did allow more passing yards than the Broncos.  I can see that.  But what does this tell you exactly.  Is it fair if Chicago took 127 more pass attempts?  Can you blame this on the defense?  Maybe, but we’ll get to that later.

What we should be looking for is yards allowed per attempt.  This will tell you how the defense really does against a pass play.  Chicago allows 5.9 yards per pass attempt which is good for 9th in the NFL.  The league average is 6.2 yards per pass attempt. 

Again Chicago is better than many teams in the NFL against the pass.  A question we’ll ask ourselves later is why is Chicago getting so many plays against their defense.  Are they not getting off the field?  We’ll answer this later.

I want to tackle the run defense first.  Chicago allows 3.4 yards per run.  Third place in the league.  The average is 4.2 yards allowed per play. 

The next thing about a good defense is that they can get takeaways.  Thirty-two takeaways is good for second in the league, with the average at 24.8 takeaways. 

So far we have agreed that Chicago has an above average defense, right?  We just need to find out why Chicago has been taking more snaps than any team in the NFL. 

Is it because Chicago can not get off the field?  Per drive, the Bear defense was on the field for 2:30.9.  That is two minutes and 30 seconds.  The league leader is 2:28.2.  Chicago is the second fastest team to get off the field for defense. 

The Bears’ offense is on the field for 2:24.3.  The offense is on the field less than the best defense is on the field!  That is horrible. 

So where is this break down in offense?  We already discussed that it wasn’t the offensive line and pass protection.  Could it be that Chicago cannot run the ball?

Chicago only had 3.9 yards per rush.  So it is possible this had something to do with it.  Chicago also just had 6.1 yards per pass attempt.  Only 30 percent of Kyle Ortons’ passes were attempted when Chicago was trailing, too.  What that means is that there is no reason why we should be this low for yards per pass attempt.

After all of this it is easy to see that the Bear offense needs to improve in order for the team to improve.

Chicago Bears Vs 3-4 Defenses

A lot of teams are transitioning over to a 3-4 defense.  What is so special about this?  The one thing that everyone automatically says is that you can’t tell where the blitz is coming from.  Well, that’s not entirely true.

The 3-4 has two defensive ends and a nose tackle on the line.  The nose tackle can shoot either the strong A gap or the weak A gap.  The defensive ends can be put pretty much anywhere.  They can sit in front of the guard, be put on the B gap, lined up in front of the tackle, or on the C gap.  That goes for strong and weak sides. 

The idea is that you cannot just automatically assign two offensive lineman to double team a certain guy.  It is exactly like sending in a stunt every single play.  We have an idea on where they’re coming from, but not certain. 

How do we get this idea?  Well, the first thing is that our formation will affect their formation. 

Cover 1

The Cover 1 defense is made for one man deep or free to play however the coach wants.  The rest are playing man to man.  Think of it this way: you normally rush 4.  That leaves 7.  There are two running backs, two wide-outs, and one tight end that you cover.  That is 5 people you have to cover when you’re doing man to man.  So you have 7 people with 1 person being deep. 

What do you think that final player is going to do?  Well, he’s not going to play deep or it’d be cover 2.  However, he doesn’t necessarily have to blitz either, but more than likely that is what he’ll be doing.

So you have four down lineman that are definitely rushing the quarterback and we have to pick one more.  Well, one of the safeties is playing center field.  We know it’s not him.  The two corners aren’t rushing unless a linebacker or the other safety is edging closer to them.  The whole point is that someone is blitzing.  Who the person blitzing will determine on the location of the defenders to their man. 

If you are unsure, but you suspect someone is blitzing, then move that person in motion.  They can move in motion and then go right back to the same spot they were.  They just need to move enough so we can see what the defense plans on doing.

The Cover 1 is probably the hardest for offenses to pick apart because you know they are blitzing.  They’re coming at you with 3 defensive lineman and 2 linebackers.  However, there are four linebackers so we have some eliminating to do. 

When we go against the 3-4 like in Green Bay we like to move Forte and Olsen around quite a bit.  We’re trying to determine what they are doing.  Once we know what they’re doing we will know for sure what we are going to do.

I also want to let you know that you can also do zone defense in cover 1 and that you’re not just forced into doing man to man.  You can tell when they decide to do this as well.  Bring a couple guys close together and their formation will not move.  They will stay fanned out so they can get to their zone.  Of course, this isn’t always very obvious in the NFL as I make it sound.

Cover 2

Cover 2 is a little more tricky.  We know this because we see this as Bear fans.  In fact, this is what I run 90% of the time in Madden because speed is everything and I swear every time Terrell Owens just gets faster and blows by everyone and that’s with both my defenders on him!  Sorry about that.  I hate Madden, but I’ll get back on subject now.

Anyway, Cover 2 can be 2 man deep and man under.  Again, they have four linebackers and two corner backs for pass protection.  That makes six and they only have to cover 5.  So we know at least one linebacker is coming in with the three defensive lineman.  With the cover 2 you can also do a zone defense. 

You can blitz people too, but in this situation you will normally leave an area or a man open.  This area and or man can be determined immediately if not done appropriately.  However, a lot of people will see a cover 2 blitz, but what is really happening is that the offense will leave a running back or two back to block.  Well, what does the cover person do? 

In Chicago we play containment.  We normally don’t blitz in, but I have seen it done before.  The key thing is when you do blitz in, you want to run through the running back or whoever you were supposed to cover so they can’t sneak out and catch a make shift screen pass.

Cover 3

If they decide to go cover 3 then you can tell that the one of the safeties will cheat to the side and the other safety will cheat to the middle of the field to get his 1/3.  The other two 1/3’s is covered by the corners. 

The other safety that is moving to the side is going to cover the flats.  The other side, where the safety is not on will tell us who is not blitzing.  They will be covering the other flats.  This leaves three lineman and three linebackers left.  One of the three linebackers is blitzing.  The other two will be falling into their respective zones covering the hooks. 

When you watch the game you can start to tell when they do this. 

Now when we run with three wide receivers then that is the same thing as taking a linebacker out.  We still have to deal with a guess of which one of the three linebackers is coming. 

There is also the case when they blitz two linebackers.  This will leave a man or a zone open.  The question is can we detect it before they can get to the quarterback.

Cover 4

The cover 4 is really simple, but they can change it to be a little more complex in the NFL.  Normally the corners will take the deep outside zones and the safeties will take the deep inside zones.  This eliminates man under, unless the defense wants to leave one loose or they only use three rushing.  This is what you normally see at the end of the game.  For instance when Pittsburgh was ahead they did Cover 4 with a three man rush so they could do man under.

How does this refer to Chicago?  Wouldn’t it be nice to know our quarterback can pick these things up easily?  The 4-3 and the 3-4 are similar in many ways.  The offensive lineman and the quarterback have to be on top of their game.  For many of the teams that play with a 3-4, Jay Cutler has usually a 90 or higher QB rating.  So this won’t affect him. 

It’s now up to our offensive line and how well they can gel.  We get a practice a couple practice 3-4 games against Denver and Cleveland before we do our test against Green Bay.  I can’t wait for the football season to begin!

Big Ten Classic: Ohio State Vs. Purdue in 2002

It’s 2 AM CST. and my baby son is crying, keeping me awake.  So I’m out here holding him and I decided to check out the Big Ten channel.  What do I know, but the 2002 Ohio State vs. Purdue game is on.  So I start watching Kyle Orton.  To my amazement he is playing exactly how he played for Chicago. 

I really like this one play they do.  They have five wide receivers out wide and no running back beside the quarterback who is in a shotgun formation.  One of receivers is really a TE who is split out about four yards wide. 

Anyway, they know Ohio is going to blitz so Ohio State is basically man vs. man or it might be a cover one defense.  The point is they send everyone out long and have one guy run a short in route that is reminiscent of what Ron Turner had to do so Kyle would throw the ball to one of our wide receivers. 

Since this guy is all by himself, because they’re waiting for Kyle to bomb, it’s an easy throw.  If this guy was covered he’d throw the ball away.  Exactly what he did in Chicago.

I always wondered why we had Hester run a deep route while Lloyd or Davis would run a short in route.  Because that’s the only way Kyle would throw to a wide receiver.  Also, after watching this game, I now know why Forte led the team in receptions.  Orton checked down in college play after play. 

The funny thing is, I think the Purdue coach knew this would happen, which is why at half the time they didn’t even put a running back out there.  They made sure he couldn’t check it down.  Well, at least the Broncos can use that information now.

He just over threw a guy on a short hitch route.  Wow, it’s just like him.  Anyway, I’m only writing this, barely staying awake, because as I watch this film it is painfully obvious that he cannot throw. 

He now just under threw a slant in route and the ball didn’t even get to the receivers’ feet.

Why did we even draft this guy?  At least Ron Turner doesn’t have to figure out how to get Kyle to throw the ball to a receiver anymore.

As I said that Purdue just had a huge reception.  I was thinking that it couldn’t have been Kyle.  He doesn’t throw into coverage like that.  They took out Orton and put in Kirsch.  I guess they felt that Kyle wasn’t exactly the guy either.  I can’t say I blame them.

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