Wes Welker: Efficiency Juggernaut

It’s seems in today’s day and age that the media flocks to prima-donna players. Using the boorish behavior of these players to fill articles with their atrocious analysis of football.

How many articles have we all read elucidating Terrell Owens’ destruction of team locker rooms? Now how many times have we read an article focused on Terrell Owens habit of dropping footballs throughout his career?

How many times have we heard a football analyst whether it be ESPN or NFL Network question JaMarcus Russell’s lack of work ethic? But we’ve rarely seen these same analyst break down game film or specific plays and show us what exactly JaMarcus has been doing wrong. We rarely see these analyst compare the routes that JaMarcus’ receivers runs to routes of some of the top-tier receivers in the NFL.

The NFL’s lack of quality media coverage, or even lack of quality statistics that the average fan could examine have left football fans to be some of the most ignorant fans in sports.

The media has been so focused on highlighting Terrell Owens lack of production in Buffalo, Chad Ochocinco off-field antics (some even on-field), the NFL’s “lack of parity” that they’ve been completely oblivious to one of the most productive and efficient season by a wide receiver this past decade.

Wes Welker has quietly been the most efficient receiver in the NFL this season. But yet, you rarely hear analyst dissect his fabulous season.

Welker hasn’t put up a lot of touchdowns to the likes of Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, or Larry Fitzgerald, but Wes has been more efficient and productive (when he’s been on the field) than every one of them.

Despite missing two games this year Welker is leading the league in receptions with 79 grabs. His next closest competitor, Reggie Wayne, took two extra games to catch 76 footballs.

No receiver has caught more passes in their first eight games than Wes Welker has. Ever ! His next closest competitor? Marvin Harrison, who had 69 catches his first eight games in 2002.

Welker is on pace for 138 reception, I don’t think it’s far-fetched to think that had he been able to play 16 games this year that he would have had a very good chance of breaking Marvin Harrison’s single-season record for receptions. Keep in mind this is a record many analysts think will never be broken.

Despite being ranking fourth in targets among receivers Welker has caught 79 percent of the passes thrown his way, among receivers targeted more than 80 times this year, Welker’s 79 percent catch percentage leads the entire league.

Welker is fifth in the league in receiving yards and leads the NFL in yards per game (106.8).

Welker ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency rankings. Now keep in mind that Welker has been targeted significantly more times than all the receivers ranked ahead of him in terms of DVOA.

Welker ranks fourth in the league in terms of the Football Outsiders DYAR production rankings. Welker and New Orleans Saints receiver Marques Coltson are the only receiver to be ranked in the top-10 for both DYAR and DVOA.

A lot could be made of Randy Moss taking away double coverage and that is why Welker has been able to catch so many passes. However, this misconception is meant to belittle Welker’s production.

Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss have all explained in many interviews and conference calls that teams tend to double cover Wes Welker on third down and around the goal line. Need examples? In Super Bowl XXXXII when Randy Moss caught his fourth quarter touchdown a safety and linebacker were double covering Welker in the slot, this left Moss one-on-one with the cornerback.

The NFL Network has an outstanding show called Playbook. The show’s host Sterling Sharpe, Mike Moyock, and Brian Billick examine game film. In one of the shows they examined Randy Moss’ 77 yard TD catch against he Miami Dolphins. Moss and Welker both ran crossing routes and the safety had to commit to either Moss or Welker, the safety chose the latter, and this left Moss one-on-one with the CB.

Moss and Welker both help each other out, and the misconception that Moss is the sole reason why Welker gets all his catches is very skewed.

Welker could very well break the record for catch percentage with over 130 targets, if he hasn’t already in the last two seasons. But the media will never tell you that.

It’s shame that Welker might very well be snubbed for the Pro Bowl this year, even though he is putting up one of the best receiving season in recent memory.

 

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Game Plan: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

After the New England Patriots pulled off a remarkable fourth quarter comeback against the surprisingly impressive Buffalo Bills, they must head to the Meadowlands to face another division rival, the New York Jets.

The Patriots split wins with the Jets last season. The Patriots won the first game and the Jets broke Bill Belichick’s undefeated record in overtime with the Patriots in the second game.

The Patriots face a much improved Jets team with new head coach Rex Ryan. Whoever wins this game will have sole possession of the division lead.

Here is what I think the Patriots must do to come away with a victory:

 

Patriots Week 1 Playbook and Analysis:

The Patriots defense executed most of the points from last week’s game plan e.g. they jammed receivers at the line of scrimmage on third down (with safety help up top.)

They didn’t however minimize the YAC of the Buffalo Bills receivers and running backs. After Week One the Buffalo Bills ranked fourth in the league in yards after the catch with 156 yards (Fred Jackson accounted for 62 percent of those yards). Of the Bills’ 276 total yards 60 percent came from YAC.

Offensively the Patriots followed 1/3 of the last week’s offensive game plan.

They carried out the ball control game plan, winning the time of possession battle 37:08 minutes to 22:52 minutes. The Patriots sustained time consuming drives, however many drives stagnated on third down.

The Patriots didn’t do a very good job of protecting Tom Brady. They were many times when Brady got hit fractions of seconds after he released the ball.

The Patriots actually followed last week’s game plan of setting up screens to running backs and receivers but didn’t execute the screens (reasons varied from receivers and running backs dropping the ball to Brady over throwing the screen pass).

 

Defensive Game Plan:

Mark Sanchez had a very impressive NFL début, throwing for 272 yards and a very impressive 8.8 yards per attempt; let’s hope the Pats can bring his performance back to rookie standards.

The Patriots struggled stopping the YAC of the Bills receivers (especially Fred Jackson); this happened when Jerrod Mayo was injured and Guyton had to step in to the game. When Mayo got injured the Patriots switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3.

This put Gary Guyton as the only ILB (technically a MLB) on the field and was responsible for calling defensive plays. He had trouble diagnosing screens and was thinking too long instead of reacting.

Going against Leon Washington you must be able to contain him after he catches the ball out of the backfield. Leon Washington has a 7.8 career YAC average; compare that to Wes Welker’s YAC average in 2007 of 6.8 and you can clearly see just how effective Leon Washington is at gaining yards after the catch.

Rex Ryan said that he will be using Leon Washington more this season; this week is going to be a perfect opportunity to use Washington’s explosive abilities.

I don’t expect the Patriots to fully contain Washington with Jerod Mayo most likely being out for the game and Gary Guyton filling in, but there are some ways the Patriots can minimize Washington’s YAC.

Since the Jets don’t have a dynamic wide receiver, Bill Belichick doesn’t have to be inclined to put double coverage on one of them. This allows the defense to be flexible and will hopefully allow the Patriots to put a man in the “box” to stop the run and most importantly the screens and YAC.

The Jets have a very good TE in Dustin Keller who had a very good game when these two teams last faced off catching eight passes for 87 yards including a clutch catch on 3rd-and-19 to help the Jets win in overtime.

Once again, the Jets not having a dominant receiver that vies for double coverage allows the Patriots to be flexible and double cover Keller if the situation calls for it.

I think the Patriots should utilize Patrick Chung in this game. Coming out of college Chung had a reputation of being a hard hitting safety and solid tackler. Chung could help double cover Keller and stop screens to prevent any yards after the catch.

He also provides an intimidating presence, something the Patriots lacked the last time they played the Jets (allowing players like Keller and Washington to bounce off tacklers.)

The Patriot defense was very bad at stopping the Buffalo Bills when they really had to, they must get crucial stops.

 

Recap:

• For the second week in a row the Patriots must stop YAC
• The Patriots must be physical and must stop Dustin Keller
• They must get crucial stops

 

Offensive Game Plan:

The Patriots’ offense struggled early last week; Tom Brady participating in his first meaningful game since Week One of last year may have been a major reason for that.

The Patriots struggled setting up screen passes early in the game. The Patriots receivers tied for second in the league with three dropped passes, most (if not all) of those dropped passes occurred during attempted screens.

I think the Patriots will eliminate those problems and hopefully execute those screens better.

If Rex Ryan’s defense lives up to it’s reputation and brings pressure on Brady, the screen and short passing game will be very crucial to the offense’s success. The best way to beat a 4-6 defense is to spread them out and get quick slant routes before the defense gets to the quarterback.

When facing a 4-6 defense you also must have a solid running game. Last week the Patriots’ running game starting off great, but the offensive line slowed down and allowed the Bills to dominate the line of scrimmage. The O-line will get their hands full once again going against Kris Jenkins.

The offensive line wasn’t impressive although they only gave up one sack in 53 attempts (this shows us how fast Tom Brady gets rid of the ball compared to Matt Cassel last year).

The offensive line must improve and allow Brady to have some sort of organized pocket to throw the ball. This will be very difficult to accomplish against a Rex Ryan defense.

I expect the Patriots to try and get the ball downfield more often this game.

I also want Joey Galloway to step up to all the hype he received when he arrived in New England. This will be very hard to do going against the Jets secondary with Darrell Revis and Kerry Rhodes.

Ben Watson had a very good opening day, but he has been very inconsistent during his time in NE. He makes a spectacular catch one play then drops a ball the next play. If he can make his presence known in the middle of the field (especially when the Jets blitz) it will be a tremendous lift for the offense.

 

Recap:

• Protect Brady (second week in a row)
• Try to strike down the field more often (when Moss or Galloway is single covered due to a blitz)
• Ben Watson must prove he can be consistent and establish himself in the middle of field

 

Prediction:

What is the Unit Most Likely to Succeed?

Secondary: They had a very good opening day, shutting down Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, and Roscoe Parish, eliminating the Jets receivers with a rookie quarterback throwing them the ball should be a cake walk.

What is the Unit Most Likely to Fail?

Offensive line: The offense struggled against the Buffalo Bills defense that, aside from Aaron Schobel and Aaron Maybin lack a pass rusher. The Jets will bring pressure on Tom Brady. Rex Ryan’s Raven defense almost upset the 2007 Patriots; he would love to get pay back this year.

Player That Needs to Step Up?

Joey Galloway: Galloway was expected to pull coverage away from Randy Moss and make big plays down the field…that hasn’t happened so far. We can’t put all the blame towards Galloway however; he was only targeted twice last week compared to Randy Moss’ and Wes Welker’s league leading 16 targets.

Who is the Most Crucial Player for the Patriots This Week?

Brandon Meriwether: With Jerod Mayo most likely not participating in the game, Meriwether needs to step up and prove he can lead this defense and prove that he is one of the better safeties in the NFL (or at least the AFC).

He had a solid game last week having eight tackles, three of which were unassisted and a very crucial stop of Roscoe Parish that allowed Pierre Woods to strip the ball.

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Game Plan: New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills

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Tom Brady: Will He Ever Avoid The Sack of “The System Quarterback?”

When debating on the performance of players in the NFL, there are two sides of any debate—those who consider statistic as the best measure of the players performance and those who consider wins and championships as the best measure of a players performance.

Each side has its own measure and formula of what is most important and how to judge a players performance.

The measure of how “clutch” a player performs is mostly used by those who believe winning championships is the most important factor in any debate (especially quarterbacks.)

When those who weigh championships more mention the notion of clutch to the statistics group, the stats group usually say that it’s a false measure—that being clutch is exaggerated in order to make excuses as to why a player hasn’t put up impressive statistics.

That in turn would equalize the playing field to players that have put up impressive numbers.

What’s ironic is that this same group of debaters have created a fictitious measure themselves—the cliché of a “system quarterback,” described as being a quarterback with outstanding surrounding talent, coaching staff, and an organization that covers flaws in the quarterbacks ability to be successful and win games.

This cliché is used on Tom Brady more than any other quarterback in the league today. The only problem is, Tom Brady’s not a “system quarterback.”

The cliché used against Brady is nothing more than the Brady pundits excuses to why he has become successful.

The majority of NFL fans believe that Brady was drafted and put into a Super Bowl contender. This is a misconception that is meant to belittle Tom Brady’s impact to the New England Patriots.

Before Brady became the starting quarterback of the Patriots in the 2001 season, the Patriots went 5-11 with a four time Pro-Bowl quarterback (which Brady is now himself) and former No. 1 overall pick in Drew Bledsoe.

They also had major pieces put in place such as Willie McGinest, Ty Law, Teddy Bruchi, Kevin Faulk, Adam Vinatieri, and Lawyer Milloy, and Bill Belichick. All of those players were present prior to Brady becoming the starter and were present after he became the starter.

Yet, the Patriots still went 5-11 the year before Brady became a starter.

Not much change from 2000 to 2001. The Patriots drafted both Matt Light and Richard Seymour in the 2001 season but neither were major contributors to the 2001 Championship run.

The 2000 defense and 2001 defense performed very much at the same level. The 2000 defense ranked No. 20 in the league in overall defense, and the 2001 defense ranked No. 24 in overall defense.

The defense from 2000 allowed 334.6 yards-per-game while the 2001 defense allowed 334.5 yards-per-game.

The 2001 defense was better than the 2000 defense in terms of points allowed, but by a small margin; the 2000 defense allowed 21 points-per-game, and the 2001 defense allowed 17 points.

Brady Pundits could say that Bill Belichick needed time to set up the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 but this notion is false since Bill Belichick has always used the 4-3 at some point during the season.

He used the 4-3 defense in both Super Bowl XXXVI and Super Bowl XXXIX.

The point I’m trying to make is Brady was not put in a perfect situation and in a team that was a Super Bowl contender, and that there was no major difference between the Patriots team that went 5-11 in 2000 and the Patriots team went on to win the Super Bowl in 2001.

Those who label Brady as a system quarterback must be clear on which system they are talking about.

Tom Brady has worked with three offensive systems throughout his career. The Charlie Weis system, the early version Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick System, and the late version.

The Charlie Weis system utilized the running game and screen passes to Kevin Faulk more often and featured a lot of two TE sets.

The early Josh McDaniels system (in which Belichick was more involved in the offense) utilized quick slant passes to Troy Brown, while the late Josh McDaniels system was a finesse passing game.

It’s ironic that Brady succeeded in all of those systems.

Many like to point out that Matt Cassel succeeded in the same Patriots system that Tom Brady played in.

What they fail to realize is that the system that Cassel played in with Randy Moss and Wes Welker isn’t the same system Brady played in his whole career.

Brady put up the same numbers Cassell put up in his first year without all the weapons, not to mention he played a tougher schedule than Cassel played.

The cliché of “the system quarterback” is very dubious in my opinion, considering the fact that every quarterback in the NFL could be labeled as a “system quarterback.”

Every team surrounds their quarterbacks with the players they feel like will best help their quarterback succeed. Some teams will surround their quarterback with a great defense; others will surround their quarterback with a great offense.

So why is the quarterback that is surrounded with the better defense considered a system quarterback, while the other one is not labeled with the cliché?

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