From Worst to “Bess”: Davone Bess’ Journey From the City to the Spotlight

Davone Bess was dealt a tougher life than most.

Growing up in Oakland, California, he lived about as rough of a childhood as anyone; growing up with a mostly single mother and never had a true “father figure” to look up to. Additionally, at the age of 10, he witnessed the murder of his Uncle at a birthday party.

But Bess wasn’t about to be trapped and wasn’t going to go down the same road as those before him.

Bess became the first person in his family to attend college and the first person on his dad’s side to pass high school. 

During his years at Skyline High School, Bess became a letterman in football, basketball, and baseball. In football, he was an All-City wide receiver and led the team to the league championship.

Although he was off to a good start, trouble had not escaped Bess’ life completely. After gaining a scholarship to play football at Oregon State University, he had it rescinded because of an incident where allowed a friend to place stolen items in his car.

Bess was sent to a juvenile facility for 15 months. While there, he played flag football with fellow detainees. After one game in particular, he impressed a Hawaii scout enough to warrant a four-year scholarship to the University.

While at Hawaii, Bess put his talent on display.

In his first year with the team, Bess caught 89 passes for 1,124 yards and 14 touchdowns. The great season warranted a WAC First-Team selection and a WAC Freshman Of The Year award.

The following season, Bess improved on his already exceptional totals from the previous season. Seven more passes were caught, nearly 100 more yards were netted, and one more touchdown was scored. As a result, Bess gained another WAC First-Team selection.

In his final year with the Warriors, Bess set career highs for both receptions (106) and receiving yards (1226).

More accolades were in store for Davone. The Associated Press named Bess to the Third-Team All-American squad.

However, despite the numerous awards and impressive collegiate totals, Bess went undrafted in the 2008 NFL Draft.

Despite not being selected, Bess earned a spot on the Miami Dolphins. He wasn’t expected to produce much, but things changed when slot receiver Greg Camarillo suffered an injury.

Bess stepped in and performed admirably. He scored his first career NFL touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens. At season’s end, he ranked among the top rookie wide receivers. 

His 54 receptions were good for third in the NFL among first-year players and second-best all-time among undrafted rookies.

Going into 2009, Bess is looking at a full-time gig as a starter. He developed chemistry with quarterback Chad Pennington and cemented himself as a reliable possession receiver in the league. 

The fact that he is only going into his second season in the league certainly allows him the time to mature and blossom into the star that he has deserved to become. Even when he was faced with the toughest of times, he persevered, fought his way through, and came out a better person—and player—than ever before.

A Formula To Predict Next Year’s Super Bowl Winner

Every year, NFL teams are tasked with a similar goal: To bring home a championship.

No matter if a team already has a solid foundation in place or is amidst a rebuilding project and working from the ground up, the ultimate goal remains the same.

However, it is foolish to suggest that all 32 teams have an equal shot of finishing the season on top.

There are many variables that factor into a team’s success, (or failure). Teams’ personnel change, players get cut and traded, distractions occur on and off the field, and key injuries occur.

Since the beginning of the millennium, six different teams, (out of nine total), have won “the big one.” The Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, and New York Giants all have a field of players who can proudly boast a ring.

But what was it that allowed for these teams to achieve the league’s highest status?  For that, we’ll have to dive into everyone’s favorite subject—math—so as to see the parts that made up the whole on these championship rosters.

Of the nine rosters, each team on average had:

• An 11th ranked team offense
• A sixth ranked team defense
• A quarterback who threw for 3,125 yards and 21 touchdowns on 12 interceptions
• A running back who carried the ball 247 times for 1,067 yards and six touchdowns
• A No. 1 wide receiver who caught the ball 73 times for 1,012 yards and five touchdowns
• A No. 2 wide receiver who caught the ball 59 times for 882 yards and five touchdowns
• A defense that housed a player who garnered 11 sacks
• A defense that housed a player who garnered six picks

The formula I created for predicting next year’s winner calls for giving a point for each category that an NFL team qualifies for.

So, for example, since Philip Rivers surpassed the 3,125 yard, 21 touchdown category last year, San Diego gets awarded a point, (from the quarterback category).

It is important to note that points can be given off for realistic potential as well.

An example is Carson Palmer. He did not meet the 3,125 yard or 21 touchdown requirement last year. But because he was injured, (and does possess the ability to attain and or surpass those numbers), Cincinnati still gets a point from the quarterback category.

Here are the results:

• The Pittsburgh Steelers received eight points.
• The Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, and Philadelphia Eagles received seven points.
• The Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, and Atlanta Falcons received six points.
• The Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Jets received five points.
• The Tennessee Titans received four points.
• The Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and Seattle Seahawks received three points.
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars received two points.
• The San Francisco 49ers received one point.

So based on the formula, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the most likely team to win Super Bowl XLIV.  It would be back-to-back titles for the franchise, and its third since the year 2000; joining the Patriots in that regard.

But the Steelers are not the only team with a legitimate shot to go the distance.  Perennial powers such as the Colts, Patriots, and Cowboys are all right behind the defending champs, and are looking to claim the title of “NFL’s Best” for themselves.

Some “dark horse” teams (teams that have a good percentage to win it all, but aren’t perceived the same way by the fans, players, and media) include Green Bay, Houston, and Atlanta.

The numbers don’t lie, however, and that is why I am choosing Pittsburgh to repeat as NFL Champions.

As a famous quote reads, “Past instances are a good indicator for future success,” and that certainly bodes well for the Steelers.

Fantasy Football Forecasting: Who Will Be the No. 1 Tight End in 2009?

According to 12-team mock drafts being held on fantasyfootballcalculator.com, three high-profile tight ends have been going as early as the fourth round and as late as the end of the fifth.

Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys is usually the first one to go (round four, pick four), followed by Charger Antonio Gates (going at round four, pick 12), and then Atlanta Falcon Tony Gonzalez (round five, pick five).

Let’s consider each player’s situation for this upcoming season, along with their recent statistics, in that order.

 

Jason Witten

Consistency has been Witten’s game (aside from football, of course).  Over the last four seasons, Witten has averaged 902 yards and four touchdowns on almost 77 receptions.  Those are legit wide receiver numbers in the body of a tight end.

Durability also is an attribute that can certainly describe Witten’s play.  Among his six years in the NFL, Witten has missed a total of one measly game.  One (they don’t come much healthier than that).

This season should be his best statistical one yet. Because distracting (and talented) wide receiver Terrell Owens is gone, there will be more targets to go around in the Dallas passing game.  Look for Witten to benefit superbly from this since he, out of any other offensive player, has the most chemistry with QB Tony Romo.

 

Antonio Gates

Gates is the next man on the list.  He may be the most talented out of any of the three TEs mentioned here, and that means something.

Gates’ averages stretching back the last four years read:  74 catches, 928 yards, and nine touchdowns. Compared to Witten, Gates has the higher yardage and (much higher) touchdown total, but he fails in the receptions category by a minimal three grabs.

However, last season, Gates suffered his worst statistical year since his rookie season, catching only 60 passes for 704 yards and eight touchdowns.  Still amazing numbers, especially considering the amount of TDs, but a down-year nonetheless.

This upcoming season, Gates, like Witten, should endure his finest statistical performance to date.  He is completely healthy (he, like Witten has been fortunate to have fantastic health during his tenure in the NFL) and has a star at quarterback in Philip Rivers and great wide receivers and running backs to surround himself with.

 

Tony Gonzalez

The last man on this list, but certainly not least, is the record-setting tight end, Gonzalez.

“Gonzo”, as he’s commonly called, switched teams this offseason, being traded by the Kansas City Chiefs, his home for his first 12 seasons in the league, to the Atlanta Falcons.

The move should do nothing but benefit him.  He goes from a “lowly” and re-building organization in the Chiefs to an up-and-coming franchise in the Falcons.

Gonzalez is the oldest of the three here, but he is also the most experienced, the least injury-prone (only two missed games in 12 seasons), and the most likely to produce solid numbers,  as opposed to the other two on the list.

Over his career, Tony G has amassed nearly 11,000 yards and 76 touchdowns. Last year, Gonzo arguably had his second-best season to date, catching a whopping 96 passes for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns.

 

Look for all of these players to continue their “positional dominance” this year, as all are in situations that provide them with great opportunities to produce numbers.

Personally, I have Witten ranked one, followed by Gonzalez, and then Gates.  Witten shows the most upside of the group, which should translate into the highest totals, and Gonzalez is over Gates because of his consistency—not in touchdowns, but in yardage totals and receptions, the best indicators of possible success at this position.

Any of the three are fantastic No. 1 tight ends to have on your team.  Snag any of them if they fall to you in the fifth round.

Fantasy Football Forecasting: Who Will Be the No. 1 Tight End in 2009?

According to 12-team mock drafts being held on fantasyfootballcalculator.com, three high-profile tight ends have been going as early as the fourth round and as late as the end of the fifth.

Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys is usually the first one to go (round four, pick four), followed by Charger Antonio Gates (going at round four, pick 12), and then Atlanta Falcon Tony Gonzalez (round five, pick five).

Let’s consider each player’s situation for this upcoming season, along with their recent statistics, in that order.

 

Jason Witten

Consistency has been Witten’s game (aside from football, of course).  Over the last four seasons, Witten has averaged 902 yards and four touchdowns on almost 77 receptions.  Those are legit wide receiver numbers in the body of a tight end.

Durability also is an attribute that can certainly describe Witten’s play.  Among his six years in the NFL, Witten has missed a total of one measly game.  One (they don’t come much healthier than that).

This season should be his best statistical one yet. Because distracting (and talented) wide receiver Terrell Owens is gone, there will be more targets to go around in the Dallas passing game.  Look for Witten to benefit superbly from this since he, out of any other offensive player, has the most chemistry with QB Tony Romo.

 

Antonio Gates

Gates is the next man on the list.  He may be the most talented out of any of the three TEs mentioned here, and that means something.

Gates’ averages stretching back the last four years read:  74 catches, 928 yards, and nine touchdowns. Compared to Witten, Gates has the higher yardage and (much higher) touchdown total, but he fails in the receptions category by a minimal three grabs.

However, last season, Gates suffered his worst statistical year since his rookie season, catching only 60 passes for 704 yards and eight touchdowns.  Still amazing numbers, especially considering the amount of TDs, but a down-year nonetheless.

This upcoming season, Gates, like Witten, should endure his finest statistical performance to date.  He is completely healthy (he, like Witten has been fortunate to have fantastic health during his tenure in the NFL) and has a star at quarterback in Philip Rivers and great wide receivers and running backs to surround himself with.

 

Tony Gonzalez

The last man on this list, but certainly not least, is the record-setting tight end, Gonzalez.

“Gonzo”, as he’s commonly called, switched teams this offseason, being traded by the Kansas City Chiefs, his home for his first 12 seasons in the league, to the Atlanta Falcons.

The move should do nothing but benefit him.  He goes from a “lowly” and re-building organization in the Chiefs to an up-and-coming franchise in the Falcons.

Gonzalez is the oldest of the three here, but he is also the most experienced, the least injury-prone (only two missed games in 12 seasons), and the most likely to produce solid numbers,  as opposed to the other two on the list.

Over his career, Tony G has amassed nearly 11,000 yards and 76 touchdowns. Last year, Gonzo arguably had his second-best season to date, catching a whopping 96 passes for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns.

 

Look for all of these players to continue their “positional dominance” this year, as all are in situations that provide them with great opportunities to produce numbers.

Personally, I have Witten ranked one, followed by Gonzalez, and then Gates.  Witten shows the most upside of the group, which should translate into the highest totals, and Gonzalez is over Gates because of his consistency—not in touchdowns, but in yardage totals and receptions, the best indicators of possible success at this position.

Any of the three are fantastic No. 1 tight ends to have on your team.  Snag any of them if they fall to you in the fifth round.

Fantasy Football: Predicting a “Breakout Candidate”

A dream of every fantasy football manager is to draft the “next big thing” in the middle-late rounds.  The guy who flashes the potential to be a game-changer in real life and difference-maker on your fantasy roster.

  Two years ago, it was the sensational rookie running back from Sooner Country, Adrian “All Day” Peterson who took the fantasy world by storm.  Last season the title was claimed by back Michael “The Burner” Turner, who had switched teams during the off-season.

  Who is it going to be this year?

  To start, lets have a look at ten of the most notable breakout performers from last season and reasons as to why they may have experienced so much success.

  -Michael Turner-

  Everyone knew he had potential, the question was when would he have a chance to start?  An answer came in the off-season when the Chargers let him go; an when the Atlanta Falcons signed him.  No longer was he hidden in LaDanian Tomlinson’s shadow; Turner was ready to show not just the Falcons, but also the entire NFL what he had, and he sure showed them.

  -Roddy White-

  Although Roddy White was another Falcon, the similarities between him and Turner end there, (although they both put together sound statistical seasons).  White, instead of benefiting from opportunity, benefited from consistently improving in each season he has played in the NFL.  In 2005 he caught 29 passes for 446 yards.  In 2006 he caught 30 passes for 506 yards.  In 2007 he caught 83 passes for 1,202 yards.  And last year he caught 88 passes for 1,382 yards.

  -Calvin Johnson-

  The Big Nasty from Georgia Tech improved upon his rookie numbers last season, raising his catches from 48 to 78, his yards from 756 to 1,331, and his touchdowns from four to 12.  Aside from the insane amount of talent that Johnson possesses, perhaps what increased his numbers so dramatically was the fact that fellow talented wide receiver Roy Williams was shipped to the Dallas Cowboys mid-season.  No longer did he have to split a significant amount of targets with another receiver on the team.

  -Dwayne Bowe-

  Bowe, like Johnson, improved upon his rookie numbers from two seasons ago.  Receptions increased by 16, yards by 27, and touchdowns by two.  He was hampered by inconsistent quarterback play, but now has capable QB Matt Cassel to throw him the ball.

  -Steve Slaton-

  The first of three rookies on this list of 2008 breakouts.  Slaton enjoyed a fine season last year with the Texans, since he was in position to start come the regular season.  He proved that his college career was no fluke as he totaled 1,282 yards on 268 carries, and an extra 377 yards on 50 receptions while also scoring ten total touchdowns.  Look for these numbers to grow next season since he will hopefully have a fully healthy Matt Schaub throwing him the ball and keeping the passing game, (and in turn running game) honest.

  -Chris Johnson-

  Rookie number two on the list.  Johnson ran the fastest combine 40 time out of anyone in the draft last season, clocked with a robust 4.24 seconds.  He let his speed know on the field as well, garnering 1,228 yards on 251 carries, for a stellar 4.8 ypa while also adding in nine touchdowns.  Look for Johnson to improve upon these numbers since LenDale White, (the other back in this rbbc) is not looked too highly upon amongst the Tennessee Staff.

  -Matt Forte-

  The third and final rookie on this list.  Forte enjoyed perhaps the best rookie season of any player this decade in terms of fantasy production in his first season in the bigs.  He was the starter from day one, and boy, did he let know that he was the starter.  Forte rushed the ball a ridiculous 316 times, and caught the ball an equally ridiculous 63 times for a grand total of 1,715 total yards, and 12 scores.  Of the three rooks, I feel that Matty F has the highest chance of failing to meet his previous seasons’ statistics, just because they were so crazy.

  -DeAngelo Williams-

  The Panther had a season for the ages last year.  Like many on this list, Williams had improved statistically in each of his seasons in the league.  In 2006, (his rookie season), he rushed the ball 121 times for 501 yards and a score.  Then in 2007, he ran with the ball 23 more times for 216 more yards and an additional three scores.  And then there was last season:  273 carries, 1,515 yards, 20 total TDs.  It is important to note that his ypa went up each season as well.

  -Matt Schaub-

  I know what you are thinking, “How can a guy who missed five games last season be considered a “breakout player”?  Well i’ll tell you why.  Despite the fact that he missed nearly 1/3 of the season, he still managed to pass for over 3,000 yards and 15 scores.  That’s Matt Ryan’s numbers in 1/3 less the time.  Schaub had talent to work with, (especially with Slaton’s emergence) and is looking at a dandy season next year.

  -Aaron Rodgers-

  After three seasons of waiting on the bench in favor of old man Favre, Rodgers finally got his chance to show his stuff last season.  And show his stuff he did to the tune of 4,038 passing yards and 28 touchdowns compared to just 13 interceptions.  Rodgers is an example that opportunity can make flourish.

  So with all this in check, let’s look at a simpler and more mathematical way to look at the above “reasons” as to why these players achieved such high success.

  Forty percent of the “break-outs” showed statistical improvement each year.

  Thirty percent of the “break-outs” were rookies in a position to start.

  Ten percent of the “break-outs” benefited from a key departure on their team.

  Ten percent of the “break-outs” benefitted from a key addition on their team.

  Ten percent of the “break-outs” benefited from joining a new team.

 
  With that in mind, here are ten players who show one of those pre-requisites for this upcoming season.

  Chris “Beanie” Wells- (Rookie in position to start).
  Michael Crabtree- (Rookie in position to start).
  Derrick Ward- (New team).
  Kyle Orton- (New team).
  Jerricho Cotchery- (Key departure from team).
  Domenik Hixon- (Key departure(s) from team).
  Donnie Avery- (Key departure from team).
  Anthony Gonzalez- (Key departure from team).
  Devin Hester- (Key addition to team).
  Greg Olsen- (Key addition to team).

  Target these “break-out candidates”, and you will sure assume some middle-late round stars on your roster.

Fantasy Football: Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers?

  According to 12-team mock drafts being held on fantasyfootballcalculator, Quarterback Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers is being selected with the seventh pick in the fourth round, and Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers is being taken two picks later in the fourth.

 

  But which one is better?

 

  We’ll start with Rivers since he is the first man being taken.

  Last season, Rivers set new career highs for passing yards, (4,009), touchdowns, (34), completion percentage, (65.3 percent) and quarterback rating, (105.5).

  Compared to the rest of the NFL’s QBs, Rivers finished first in terms of rating, tied for first in touchdown passes, fifth in passing yards and seventh in completion percentage.  Certainly these numbers make him a top five quarterback overall.

  Rivers achieved these numbers by being the commandor of a great, and star-studded offense.  He had sensational tight end Antonio Gates, emerging wideout Vincent Jackson, and solid vet Chris Chambers to chuck the ball to on any particular down.

  In the backfield he had perhaps the best in the business, LaDanianTomlinson, to help deflect defensive attention.  LT had a down year certainly last season, and the fact that he is an old-man now leads me to believe that the Chargers will use backup Darren Sproles now more than ever.  Sproles has shown his elusiveness in the open-field while giving LT a breather, evident by his 5.4 ypa average.  He also proves to be a fantastic dump-off option for Rivers, as he[Sproles] implemented a robust 11.8 ypc last year.

  No one is leaving from the Chargers offense, so Rivers should continue to enjoy statistical success, just maybe not to the levels that he did in 2008.

 

  Mr. Rodgers, like Rivers, enjoyed a career year in every regard.  He surpassed 4,000 passing yards, had a completion percentage of 63.6, threw 28 touchdowns and had a quarterback rating of 93.8.

  Those totals were good enough for fourth, tenth, fourth and sixth respectively; and, like Rivers, produced well enough to warrant his selection as a top ten fantasy quarterback, and possibly top five.

  Rodgers had star wide receiver Greg Jennings, aged-veteran Donald Driver, up-and-coming receiver James Jones, and tight end Donald Lee to throw the ball to last season.  Not a great list of names, but must’ve been good enough for Rodgers to accumulate the stats that he did.

  In the backfield he had underachiever Ryan Grant.  A season after he gave fantasy managers the vibe to draft him high, (it rhymes), Grant came up flat, averaging a terrible 3.9 ypa, (compared to the 5.1 in 2007).  He should bounce back though, since the passing game will help open up the running game, and vice versa.

  The fact that Rodgers was able to put up the stats that he did, while playing in a mediocre offense to say the least, is mightily impressive.  Impressive so much that I think he will outperform quarterback Philip Rivers this upcoming year.  My reasoning is that while Rodgers can only go up, Rivers can only go down since I think he has achieved as high as he ultimately will statistically.

 

Draft either as a sure-fire number one fantasy quarterback.

Fantasy Football: Terrell Owens or Chad Ochocinco?

According to 12-team mock drafts being held on fantasyfootballcalculator, Terrell Owens is being selected in the middle-late third round, whereas Chad Ochocinco is being plucked off the board in the middle of the fourth.

Both of these trouble-makers find themselves in brand-new situations this season (Owens going to Buffalo, and Ochocinco being the main man in Cincy).

So who is going to produce the better numbers this year?

We will start with Owens (since he is being drafted first).

Last year with the Cowboys, Owens totaled 1,052 yards on 69 receptions, and also snagged ten touchdowns.  It’s impressive that he was able to do this while sharing the field with such capable players as: Marion Barber, Roy Williams, and Jason Witten.

However now Owens goes from an established offense to one that is a work in progress.  Buffalo’s top offensive talent, Marshawn Lynch, is suspended for the first three games of the NFL regular season because of a weapons charge from the offseason. 

This will make it easier for opposing defenses to key in on Owens, since the running game will not be a threat.  Owens does, however, have receiver Lee Evans to take away some attention, as Evans has shown that he can play as a more-than-serviceable receiver in the NFL.

But perhaps the biggest switch that Owens will have to deal with is the quarterback change.  No longer does he have trusty QB Tony Romo to throw him the ball; the new commander in chief is Trent Edwards, the third-year man out of Stanford who has flashed some, but not a ton of potential in his brief stint in the NFL.

Last year, Edwards posted decent numbers for only throwing the ball 374 times.  He garnered nearly 2,700 yards and threw 11 touchdowns with a 65.5 completion percentage but also played victim of the pass 10 times.

Edwards should though show more maturity this upcoming season though since he has had a few years to fit under his belt while seeing how the NFL operates.

My gut feeling on T.O says that his stats will regress a bit, just because of the fact that more attention will be focused on him and he has a lesser QB throwing him the ball.

Expect stats around the ballpark of 900 yards, and eight touchdowns.

And now Mr. Golden Toes.

Last season, Ochocinco caught the ball 53 time for 540 yards and four scores; a down year for him to say the least.  It is important to note though that Chad missed a total of three games during the course of the season.

Unlike Owens, Chad is remaining with the team that he had played for last season.  Also different from T.O is the fact that Chad won’t be burdened with having to share a significant portion of targets to another capable receiver on the club;  (since fellow receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh was signed by the Seattle Seahawks in the offseason). 

Instead, Ochocinco now has Laveranues Coles to share the load with; which isn’t all bad.  Coles will help to deflect some of the defensive attention that Ocho would be getting otherwise, since he [Coles] has shown that he can play, and play well.

But let’s not kid ourselves: Coles is no Houshmandzadeh.  He will not garner the same amount of looks that a player of Housh’s caliber would.  As a result, look for Ochocinco to receive the leftovers.

Perhaps the biggest reason why Ochocinco suffered such a miserable season was because his quarterback, Veteran Carson Palmer was out for 12 games.  12.  That’s 75 percent of the season people.  Would you expect Reggie Wayne to produce consistent numbers if Jim Sorgi was throwing to him?  No, so why should we hold Chad to it?

I believe that he is being undervalued since people just remember the[crappy] stats that he put up, and not the fact that he had a backup throwing to him almost all season.

With Palmer back and healthy, expect Ochocinco’s numbers to rebound to their normal lines; lines of- 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns.

And for my final opinion, I would say that I would rather have Chad Ochocinco.  He has a better QB throwing to him, and the Bengals will be behind more than the Bills will be, forcing them to throw the ball more often, (which will result in more receptions for Chad).

However, either represent a fine No. 2 option for your fantasy team.

Fantasy Football: Welcome to Fantasy Relevance Roy Williams

This guy has already been fantasy relevant.  But the situation that he is apart of now puts his “relevance” through the roof.

Williams is entering his sixth season in the league, and first full season with the Dallas Cowboys after previously spending his first five seasons with the Detroit Lions.

He didn’t do much when he was traded to the ‘Boys mid-way during the season, (only accumulating 19 catches for 198 yards and a score) but remember that he was the third and sometimes fourth option for Quarterback Tony Romo.

Now that Top Option Terrell Owens is gone, the door has been left wide open for Williams to emerge as one of Romo’s favorite target.

Certainly Williams is capable of the load that is sure to come his way.

Take a look at these stats year-by-year while apart of arguably the NFL’s worst team:

 

• 2004 – 817 yards, 1 touchdown
• 2005 – 686 yards, 1 touchdown
• 2006 – 1,310 yards, 2 touchdowns
• 2007 – 838 yards, 2 touchdowns

 

You can’t blame him for the inadequate touchdown totals because how often were the Lions in position to score?  Never.  It’s the yards that matter.

The yardage average comes out to 912 per season, not too shabby of a number again considering the situation that he was in.  With a better QB throwing to him, one has to imagine that the number can only go up.

What will also help Williams this upcoming season is the presence of a viable backfield.  The fact that the Cowboys have Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice, (all more than capable play-makers), will mean that opposing defenses will have to respect the run. This in turn will allow the passing lanes to be as open as McDonalds; allowing all wide receivers to proceed in their routes with minimal coverage.

On average, Williams has been going in the early stages of the fourth round, along the likes of fellow wideouts T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Brandon Marshall, and Braylon Edwards.

Out of the bunch, I like Williams the most.  He possesses the most upside, and the least risk I think of any of the four.

Draft Williams with confidence as your number one, yes, number one, wide receiver.  Anyone who has the potential to put together a 1,000 yard ten touchdown season should be considered a fantasy starter.

 

projection:  1,100 yards, 9 touchdowns

 

Fantasy Football: Welcome to Fantasy Relevance Donnie Avery

After patiently awaiting his turn to start, Avery is now blessed with the opportunity to.

Last year was Avery’s rookie season. After spending his collegiate career at the University of Houston, Avery was drafted by the St. Louis Rams in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft.

Last season, Avery put together a respectful rookie campaign managing 674 yards on 53 receptions while also snagging three touchdowns.  He also rushed the ball 10 times for 69 yards and a score.

While those totals may seem a bit minuscule, remember that he was playing in the shadow of more heralded wideout Torry Holt.  Holt commanded more receptions, and thus accumulated more stats seeing as though he was quarterback Marc Bulger’s main target.

Now with Holt gone to the Jacksonville Jaguars, (being the by-product of free agency), Avery will assume the role of top target for QB Bulger.

As an old man, Holt collected 64 receptions, so there’s no reason why young gun Avery can’t improve upon not only his, but also those numbers as well.

Based on Avery’s 12.7 yards per catch average, an extra 25 receptions would equate to another 318 yards.  At the frequency of how often he scored a touchdown, those same 25 receptions would equal another touchdown or two.  Now tack on those numbers to his 2008 totals this is how Avery’s projection rolls out:

77 receptions, 992 yards, and 4-5 total touchdowns.

 

Those are phenomenal statistics to have considering he is going in the middle-end of the seventh round in fantasy mock drafts so far.

The good news for Avery does not just stop there however.

This past season, four of the five most prominent coaches on the St. Louis Rams’ coaching staff were replaced.  Included was offensive coordinator Greg Olsen.

The new-old offensive coordinator who has taken over is Al Saunders whom many remember helped conduct the “Greatest Show on Turf” for the Rams during seasons 1999 and 2000 as the Wide Receivers coach.  The Rams won the Super Bowl in the year 2000.

The coaching shift bodes well for not just Avery but all of the other Rams’ receivers since as a former wide receiver coach, and now in a position of more play-calling power, he will likely call more than than his fair share of passing plays given his familiarity with the position.

And yes, there is one more “pro” so-to-speak in Avery’s repertoire.

And his name is Steven Jackson.

Jackson will force eight defenders in the box, given his talent, and as a result will open up the passing lanes for Avery to do his thing, (in simple terms get open).

There is much pointing in favor for Avery to experience a breakout year this upcoming season; can you afford not to take apart of the hype?

Fantasy Football: Evaluating The Philadelphia Eagles’ Receiving Corps

As much as fantasy owners hate to think about running back by committees, equally as tough on the noggin’ is a team with more wide receivers than you can shake a stick at.

One team that possesses this problem is the Philadelphia Eagles. Granted, Donovan McNabb is probably loving it, but us fantasy owners more often than not get screwed over while trying to predict who will emerge from the proverbial pack on any given Sunday.

Returning from last year’s squad includes:  DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, Jason Avant and Hank Baskett.

The big newcomer to the team is rookie Jeremy Maclin.

Here’s the lowdown on the prominent ones:

DeSean Jackson

Jackson had a mildly successful campaign in his rookie season last year with the Eagles.  He caught 62 balls for 912 yards, averaging 14.7 yards a catch, and also snagged two touchdowns. He led the team in the first two categories.

A young wide receiver showing this much chemistry this early on with his quarterback is certainly a good thing; as we have seen many two-way tandems evolve from these two positions, (Manning and Marvin, Rodgers and Jennings to name a few).

In college at California, DeSean also played the duties of kick-returning and was very successful at it, regularly making the week’s best with his dazzling moves and shifty maneuvering in the open field. Last season, Jackson collected upwards of 400 return yards and also added in one score. With the addition of Maclin however (an elusive return man in his own right), one can only wonder which of these two return dynamos will actually get to return kicks.

Another feature about Jackson is his ability to rush the ball. With so many teams now utilizing the ever popular “wildcat” offense (which generally asks for either a speedy running back or receiver to take direct snaps), it is not out of the question for Jackson to potentially see a few rushing attempts each game, which could result in 10-30 yards, giving you one to three more fantasy points from him each game.

In 12-team mock drafts being held on the great site, fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Jackson has been going around the middle of the fifth round.

For someone who has the potential to produce No. 1 WR kind of numbers, that’s a steal.

However, to be safe, it is advised that he play a no higher role than No. 2 WR on your team.

moderate projection:  900 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns

realistic potential:  1,200 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns

Kevin Curtis

Mr. Inconsistent.

This guy has been all over the map as far as production goes. The year of 2007 had him setting the NFL record for most receiving yards in a quarter, (200+), and accumulating over 1,100 yards while also grabbing six touchdowns. This past year however was a different story. Being shut down for the first six games of the season with injury, his season totals suffered horribly, and he never quite found the form that had gripped him a season ago. Curtis totaled only 390 receiving yards and two touchdowns throughout the rest of the season.

Personally, I’m not a believer in Curtis. Not only is he oft-injured, but the inconsistency in his numbers leads me to believe that his 2007 season was nothing but a fluke.

Take a look at his season totals dating back to 2003 with the Rams.

• 2003:  four receptions, 13 yards, zero touchdowns
• 2004:  32 receptions, 421 yards, two touchdowns
• 2005:  60 receptions, 801 yards, six touchdowns
• 2006:  40 receptions, 479 yards, four touchdowns
• 2007:  77 receptions, 1,110 yards, six touchdowns
• 2008:  33 receptions, 390 yards, two touchdowns

Looks to me like those 2007 totals were big outliers. Take away that one season and his career averages read:

420 yards, three touchdowns (rounded up).

Those are hardly numbers that I want to take part in.

Currently he is being selected in the tenth round, along with the likes of receivers Domenik Hixon and Deion Branch, both of whom i’d rather have.

If you decide to draft Curtis, he should be no more than bench material at this point; at least until he starts producing consistently.

moderate projection:  500 receiving yards, five touchdowns

realistic potential:  750 receiving yards, seven touchdowns (if healthy for a full season)

Jeremy Maclin

This guy was a beast in college for the Mizzou Tigers. He was an electrifying receiver as well as return man. In 2007, in his first college football season, Maclin gained Consensus first-team All-American honors, and also set the NCAA Freshman record for most all-purpose yards in a season. He finished the season with 80 receptions and 16 touchdowns.

Then in 2008, he kicked it up a notch. He led the NCAA in all-purpose yards per game, (202.36), and also led the nation at the end of the season in total yards with over 2,800 (1,260 receiving, 1,010 kickoff, 293 rushing and 270 punt return yards), all in just 14 games.

As previously mentioned, it will be interesting to see whether Jackson or Maclin get the majority of the return duties.  My guess is that they will split (one for punts, one kickoffs).

Right now in drafts, Maclin is being drafted in the eleventh round, right after fellow teammate Curtis. I would much rather have Maclin, strictly because of potential.

Like Curtis, Maclin should be drafted only as a bench player, so you can monitor his status and plug him in should he require you to do so at some point in the season.

moderate projection:  450 yards, three touchdowns

realistic potential:  600 yards, five to six touchdowns

 

Reggie Brown

The forgotten man.

And really, where did this guy go the past two seasons?

It seems so long ago that Brown experienced his breakout year in just his second season in the league in 2006. That season he put up 816 yards and eight touchdowns and was all geared up and ready to join the ranks of fantasy’s elite wideouts. But he fell from grace the following season, while not in yards (780), but in touchdowns, a meager four.

Then this past season hit and it took everyone for a turn.

18 receptions, 252 yards, one touchdown

Granted, he did miss six games last season and that certainly put a dent into those totals, but still, for 10 games you would imagine more stats than those that he put up.

Brown is currently going undrafted in mock drafts so far. This could be a mistake as I believe that last season was a fluke, and I honestly don’t think that people realize that he missed a good chunk of time due to injury.

That said, if you do decide to draft him, make it no more than one of your last picks.  Needless to say is that he commands no more spot than the bench of your team right now.

moderate projection:  600 yards, four touchdowns

realistic potential:  750 yards, six touchdowns

So while situations like these can cause headaches to a fantasy owner, they also lessen players value, which in turn makes them easier to attain on draft day for you.

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