A Tale of Two Seasons: Patriots-Jets Could Determine AFC East Supremacy

Fourteen years ago, the 12-0 Chicago Bears and their vaunted “46” defense marched into Miami on a Monday night in December.

Led by coordinator Buddy Ryan, they were chasing history, fueled by what was already considered one of the greatest defenses of all time. They played before I was born, but I’ve seen the tapes.

They were animals. They were big, mean, and fast, and played with the kind of reckless abandon usually reserved for trapeze artists and British guys names “Bear.”

In the three games previous, they had allowed a grand total of three points. Total. Combined. Twelve quarters.

One half of football later, they had already given up 31 as Dan Marino and the Dolphins exploited every inch of space afford to them, running up the score in a historic performance.

It’s the classic matchup: blitzing, aggressive defense versus an accurate, Hall-of-Fame quarterback with a quick release.

While that game was perhaps the epitome of that type of matchup, fans will enjoy a similar game this weekend as Buddy’s son Rex and his Jets take on Brady and the Patriots.

There are two ways to really play defense in the passing game. Either you can bring extra defenders to try and hit the quarterback before he can identify and exploit the space you leave, or you can try and get by with minimal rushers and lull the quarterback into making a false read and turning the ball over.

This is oversimplifying things, of course, but those are generally the two ends of the spectrum.

Most teams hedge on the side of providing ample pressure. While nobody really brings eight defenders all game like those ’85 Bears did, the Jets will employ a similar style in going after Brady.

Brady, like Marino, will have to exploit the space that blitzing defenders leave behind this weekend if the Patriots are going to find success. If you look at his performance last week, that’s still a big “if” for New England.

Tom Brady looked skittish early against Buffalo and only settled into a groove late in the game, hitting Ben Watson for two late game-winning touchdowns.

Will he need to settle into a rhythm again? Will he be able to on the road facing far more pressure than he did the first week?

These are big questions the Patriots have to answer as they head into what may ultimately be a game that determines their season.

The Jets, last week, certainly showed why they had some experts buzzing about their defense. They looked like they were having fun. They had a swagger, and they came to win.

Combine that with an able performance from Mark Sanchez and their ability to run the ball effectively all over the field and they’re a dangerous team.

Brady will need a big game, but it’s the defense who must step up their play to make up for the absences of Jerod Mayo and Richard Seymour.

Last season, the Patriots missed the playoffs in large part because they lost to these same New York Jets. They lost that game, in large part, because of a single play.

Facing a 3rd-and-15 in overtime, Brett Favre found Dustin Keller wide open underneath. Turning upfield, Keller came face to face with Brandon Meriweather and Jerod Mayo at the first down line.

In that moment, the two young defenders failed and Keller got his first down. The Patriots never got the ball in overtime as the Jets kicked the game-winning field goal 10 plays later.

This year, the Patriots get a shot at revenge early. But after coming away with a rather undeserved victory in week one, New England is already facing a must-win situation against the Jets.

New York looked every bit the playoff contender last week as they shut down one of the best offenses in the league, blanketing the Texans throughout the game.

Clearly, Rex, like his father, knows how to run a defense.

While he won’t be rushing eight defenders on every play like his father did, he’s going to free his defense up to go after Brady and try and keep him rattled like he was in the first half against the Bills. 

Rex, like the other great defensive coaches before him, has his team smelling blood. They know the Patriots, having traded Richard Seymour and lost Jerod Mayo to injury, are reeling.

With Miami also getting pegged back in their week one loss to Atlanta, the Jets know they can put themselves in the driver’s seat early in the division race (very early, but bear with me) by taking down New England.

You can’t afford to lose divisional home games when things are this tight. You just can’t. So while it may seem early to say this game has playoff implications, that’s exactly what’s on the line.

The division is going to come down to games like these. All three teams are now about level, in my mind. Without Seymour and Mayo, the Patriots will find it hard to lock teams down. They’ll require big games from guys like Gary Guyton, Jarvis Green, and Tully Banta-Cain if they’re going to keep the score manageable.

With weapons like Randy Moss and Tom Brady, the Patriots can win a track meet-type game if they have to, but going into each week knowing they’ll have to score 25 or more points to have a shot at winning simply isn’t going to get it done.

So while we look back to that game 24 years ago and see many similarities, it’s important to also remember how that season turned out: Marino got the glory that Monday, but the Bears ultimately took home the Super Bowl. 

Simply put, while it’ll be important for New England to get their offense going early tomorrow, it’s more important that their defense show the ability to get after teams. The road to the Super Bowl for New England has to be paved with strong defensive performances.

I don’t like to put too much stock in a single game. There are too many variables. The vagaries of a single NFL game are too wild to predicate analysis on.

But looking at where these two teams are, and taking into account what they’ve shown so far, I think New England better come to play four quarters of football. If they show up and play for 10 minutes like they did against Buffalo, they will not win.

I still think that New England’s talent on offense will win out in this division ultimately, but with each defensive star they lose I get less and less sure of their ability to walk away with the AFC East like many predicted.

As last season proved perfectly, in a tight division race, not winning games like these can make all the difference.

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True Value: Richard Seymour Among Most Underrated Players In The Game

Since the New England Patriots upset the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl following the 2001 season, the team has been known mostly for its defense.

While the last few seasons have seen the Patriots reach lofty heights with their offense, many NFL observers and casual fans alike look at the “dynasty” years as ones built on a stout and sturdy defense.

Still, the New England defense has hardly been as dominant in the past few seasons as it was during the beginning of the decade.

From 2003 onward, the defense was built on a foundation of Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, and Richard Seymour.

Now, in 2009, all three are gone.

The departure of Harrison and Bruschi was an inevitable consequence of time—age eventually catches up to us all.

But with Seymour, a three-time All Pro defensive end and perhaps the best 3-4 two-gap run stopper of the last decade, the choice was voluntary.

There’s a reason fans and players alike are rarely privy to the inner conversations held between front office personnel, coaches, agents, and owners.

All but the most naive of us know that this is purely a business. But when you really take emotion out of the equation—when you’re staring at the pure gears-and-cogs of the operation—it really leaves you feeling cold.

Listening to Raiders owner Al Davis discuss the genesis of the trade, how the conversations between the two clubs evolved to the point that Seymour’s name became involved, you truly get the fact that no matter how many times we’re reminded that this is a business, the truly hard decisions never get any easier with time.

I don’t know Richard Seymour from Adam, but I know football and I know it takes a hell of a lot of gumption to trade a 29-year-old three-time All Pro.

Most players go their entire career and never become a first-team All-Pro. Many fans ignore the distinction, thinking it to be an honor on par with the Pro Bowl.

To put this in perspective, Joe Montana only made first-team three times in his career—and all three came after he turned 31.

Dan Marino got it done earlier in his career, but even he only made three, as well. Gino Marchetti made seven in his career in the more physical pre-merger era and all seven came after his 30th birthday.

Dwight Freeney and Julius Peppers, players many Patriots fans would probably kill to call their own because of the gaudy sack numbers, haven’t made three.

I know the reasons behind the trade, and I agree with the move in terms of what the Patriots could gain long-term, but I think many pundits around the league have sold short the caliber player that Seymour is.

Yes, he’ll be 30 this year and there’s a better chance he’ll become Mark Gastineau in his 30s than Bruce Smith.

Yes, it would cost an arm and a leg to re-sign the big man after this season and he missed seven games in 2007. True, the Patriots might play more 4-3 this year given the lack of linebacker depth.

Yes, you could argue that his pass-rushing has dropped off in recent years. (9.5 sacks combined from 2005-2007, although he had eight last year)

But what isn’t up for debate is the fact that he’s an absolutely phenomenal two-gap 3-4 defender at the five-technique who can cover the gaps between two players while engaging the left tackle while still compressing the pocket.

Now, for those whom I just completely lost with that last sentence, I’ll explain. The “five-technique” is where the defensive player lines up relative to the offensive line. It’s a numbering system that starts nose to nose with the center (the zero) and moves outward. (one is between center/guard, two is over guard, etc.)

In the 3-4 because you have only three down linemen against five offensive linemen (plus tight ends), you need some of the biggest, nastiest, most athletic players on the planet to succeed.

“Two-gap” refers to the gaps between the offensive linemen. They’re usually lettered and begin between the center/guard, then the guard/tackle, etc.

A two-gap five-technique defensive end lines up between the left tackle and the tight end, engages his man, and is responsible for the running lanes both to his right and to his left.

It’s a huge responsibility that rarely lends itself to huge sack numbers or a lot of face time on television.

From that position, seven sacks or more in a season is phenomenal. But what’s more important is your ability to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback.

By consistently becoming a nuisance to the quarterback, rather than just a boom-or-bust bull rusher, you are forcing offensive lines to account for you at all times—and necessarily lose focus on what the rest of your defense is doing.

Of course, in the 4-3 that position is gone. The techniques are the same, but where your players are best suited to line up is entirely different because you need to do different things with only three linebackers behind you.

But Seymour, by virtue of his mammoth size and athleticism, can line up just about anywhere on a 4-3 line as well.

He’s not big enough to play two gaps inside (you usually need someone 340 pounds and up) as a defensive tackle, but his size is perfect for attacking a single gap inside with a license to rush the quarterback ourely and to be mindful of only one rushing lane.

As a defensive end, he maybe lacks the elite speed of some of the great end rushers like Freeney and Simeon Rice, but he’s a bigger force outside who all but automatically seals the edge and provides solid pass rush from the position.

For you East Coasters who braved a few extra cups of coffee on Tuesday to stay up and watch the Oakland-San Diego game, you saw this in effect as Seymour managed two sacks against a rather good offensive line (San Diego allowed just 25 sacks in 2008) while lining up everywhere. 

Beyond that, he was constantly putting his man on roller skates and driving through San Diego’s line to force Rivers into quick throws he wouldn’t have otherwise made and couldn’t step into. 

Contrast that to the earlier game, where New England put pressure on Trent Edwards but failed to contain running back Fred Jackson on even inside runs, and things begin to look dicey for the New England side of the trade.

Most of the yards Jackson picked up were to the outside, true, taking advantage of MLB Gary Guyton’s inexperience in identifying screens and swing plays early, but as I said when the Seymour trade went down, you can’t trade a guy like Richard Seymour and call your defense better.

Tully Banta-Cain acquitted himself beautifully against the Bills, but Trent Edwards was very efficient throughout the game against the New England pass rush. The Bills ultimately surrendered four sacks, but two came on the final drive as Buffalo scrambled to pull back the lead they lost so late.

In truth, this New England defense hasn’t been tested yet. The true test will be this week against the Jets, when they’ll already be without their best linebacker Jerod Mayo.

The Jets are a bit of an unknown quantity right now. They have the potential to be very good on defense, especially once Calvin Pace (four-game suspension) and Shaun Ellis (back this week after a one-gamer) return.

On offense, however, it could go either way. As a running attack, though, they’re among the best in the league.

They have a veteran offensive line that is playing very well, a bruising, underrated running back in Thomas Jones who has serious depth behind him in Leon Washington and Shonn Greene, and a rookie quarterback who the Patriots must pressure into surrendering turnovers.

Whether manning his usual post at the five in a 3-4 or moving all along the line as a single-gap 4-3 rusher, these are the kinds of weekends where a player of Seymour’s stature shines.

This Sunday, he’ll just be shining for a different team.

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Patriots Pull It off Again: The Play That Made The Difference

There are many things that separate a Super Bowl team from an also-ran.

Injuries. Great coaching. The schedule. Talent. Pure, dumb luck.

Sometimes, it just comes down to taking advantage of the few opportunities afforded you.

The Patriots did that Monday night, when Pierre Woods and Brandon Meriweather stripped away the ball and Buffalo’s hopes of a week one upset.

Staring down the line at Buffalo’s “hands” team, Stephen Gostkowski looked as though he wanted to put the ball into the parking lot in order to keep the clock above the two-minute mark. 

With the kick knuckling to the goal line, the Bills return man, Leodis McKelvin, perhaps questionably, took the ball from inside his own endzone, and looked to give his team great field position with a strong return.

But, especially in the final few minutes, that funny-shaped ball gets ideas of its own (Just ask Denver).

After travelling 70 yards downfield, and 30 yards the other way, the ball found its way out of McKelvin’s hands, and back into those of Gostkowski—with a little help from the heads-up duo of Meriweather and Woods.

After a weekend where several teams found new and interesting ways to lose games, Buffalo added their own to the book.

If you were to only look at the stat sheet, you’d think the Bills would call themselves lucky to have had the lead late. But Buffalo made plays when they needed to on both offense and defense, following the lead of the very, very efficient Trent Edwards.

New England was able to penetrate with some regularity—sacking Edwards four times, including twice on the final drive—but it was Brady and the Patriots who seemed unable to keep their backfield clear.

Aaron Schobel, in particular, had a phenomenal game.

While not usually considered among the top pass rushers in the league, Schobel was constantly in the Patriots backfield, finishing with two passes defensed, a couple tackles, and a one-handed interception he returned for a touchdown.

While he managed just a single sack, he found himself in the backfield much of the night.

Working with a small lead, Trent Edwards and Buffalo’s maligned “Pop Warner” offense just kept things simple and smart throughout the game.

While it seems their no huddle hasn’t quite come alive as the Bills envisioned when they instituted it this offseason, their rookie offensive linemen acquitted themselves well against a veteran Patriot defensive line.

But, while the Bills can certainly hold their head high after leading nearly the entire game, it was Brady who ultimately wound up with the ball, and the chance to win it late.

After spending nearly the entire first half looking tentative, and unsure of his surgically-repaired left knee, Brady slowly worked himself into a rhythm.

Facing the Bills’ cover-two shell that seemed willing to sacrifice the short pass to prevent the long gamebreaking play, Brady and New England bided their time.

On two nearly identical seam routes splitting the Buffalo safeties, Brady found tight end Ben Watson—who lost his starting job this offseason to Chris Baker—twice in the final 2:06 to extend New England’s winning streak over Buffalo to 12 games.

It was a classic coaching gambit by New England, having Moss and Welker run primarily shorter routes, rather than attempt to stretch the field deep.

With Buffalo keying in on Moss and Welker underneath, Ben Watson was able to sneak between the safeties for eighteen yards and the first of two scores.

Not four snaps later, Buffalo identified the same route, but Ben Watson made a very athletic catch—just the kind of catch the Patriots drafted him for in the first round in 2003—to give New England their only lead of the game.

But, while Ben Watson has surely put some distance between himself and the summer days when his role on this club was up for debate, the day really belongs to Meriweather and Woods.

Whether on a single play or over the course of the whole game, there are a dozen moments in every football game on which the outcome can rest.

Gostkowski not hitting the ball clean enough to put it out.

Buffalo putting their hands team on the field in case of an offside’s kick.

McKelvin taking the ball out of the endzone and not going to ground on contact.

But the well-coached teams recognize the moment as it happens, and know how to take advantage of it.

Standing up McKelvin, Meriwether presented the opportunity for Woods to come in and finish the job.

And the man who inadvertently started it all, Stephen Gostkowski, found himself at the bottom with the ball.

It wasn’t the outcome Buffalo deserved, but it was the one they got.

The Patriots now find themselves owning a rather fortunate 1-0 record and ,one year after missing out on the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, thats an opportunity they can’t afford to waste.

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Mano-A-Mano: Five Crucial Week One NFL Match-Ups

It’s finally here.

Thursday night may have been the first game of the 2009 NFL season, but that was like opening a single present on Christmas Eve.

My parents tried that (as in, me and my sister talked them into it) once when I was a little kid and it just didn’t feel the same.

Thursday’s game was great and everything, but there’s just something about waking up, knowing you have a full slate of games ahead of you, “adult sodas” to drink, and greasy food to eat that just makes this the best weekend of the year.

Even though it’s week one and most of us will be lost in the euphoria of football finally returning, there are significant questions to be answered by teams around the league and some really intriguing match-ups to consider.

Despite being a team game, at the highest level it just takes one play, one step, one tackle to change the course of a game, of the whole season.

It may be week one, but in three months a team may look back to one snap of the ball and realize that was the play that determined the course of the season.

With that, let’s look at five of the most crucial one-on-one matchups, the games-within-the-games that will define week one.

 

Darrelle Revis vs. Andre Johnson

The New York Jets’ Darrelle Revis has his work cut out for him. As was originally opined by M.A. Mehta of the New Jersey Star-Ledger, Revis may have to face the toughest slate of receivers any cornerback could have this season.

Revis has quietly become one of the premier cover corners in the league, displaying a polish that belies his young age.

Still, this is just some guys he’ll find staring across the line of scrimmage at him this season:

Steve Smith, Chad Ochocinco, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Randy Moss (twice), Terrell Owens (twice), Ted Ginn Jr. (twice), Antonio Bryant, Marques Colston, and of course Andre Johnson today.

Ouch. That looks like the PPR fantasy Hall of Fame.

Given the aggressive blitz-heavy scheme new coach Rex Ryan has installed —the Jets led the league in pre-season sacks with 20—much will depend on Revis’ ability to hang with the league’s elite pass-catchers.

It all starts today.

 

Terrell Owens vs. Leigh Bodden

Buffalo has been a doormat for New England for most of the past decade and, while they’ve had some opening day luck against the Patriots in the past, it looks like they’ll once again play Washington Generals to the New England Globetrotters offense.

But on defense, the Patriots have seen a lot of familiar faces wave goodbye and take a final drive down Route 1 out of town.

Young guns like Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriweather will now be tasked with bringing the defense back to its former glory.

Still, the sorest spot last year for the Patriots was their much-maligned defensive backfield. With incumbent Ellis Hobbs now a Philadelphia Eagle, the Patriots will need replacements Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs, and Darius Butler to pick up much of the slack.

Bodden is a bit of a journeyman despite his young age, having already played in Cleveland and Detroit.

He showed some early promise in Cleveland and New England is hoping that his poor play in Detroit was a product of his environment more than anything.

Still, he’s as close to a No. 1 corner as New England has and, while the rest of the defense will get a lot more media attention, it’ll be his ability to replicate the success of the cover corners who have worn Patriot blue in the past decade that will determine how successful New England are this season.

 

JaMarcus Russell vs Antonio Cromartie

You can pretty much replace Cromartie’s name with everyone involved with the Charger pass-defense, because they did not look good in 2008.

Still, this should be a low-hanging fruit for San Diego to tee off on.

While the Chargers boast some of the best pass-rushing talent in the league, Antonio Cromartie’s 10-interception season of 2007 seems a distant memory.

What is far easier to recall is the 2008 Chargers defense, which can only really be described as “woeful.”

Even during their most successful years, the Chargers ran with about the middle of the pack in terms of passing yardage against, but with Merriman out last year, they fell to bottom of the barrel against opposing passers.

Oakland doesn’t have a whole lot of talent around Russell, but if San Diego can’t even keep the lid on what amounts to a rather unimpressive passing attack, their title credentials will seriously be discredited this week.

I’d expect San Diego to really put the vice on the Raiders tomorrow, because that is a unit that has a lot to prove in 2009.

The hopes of the Chargers and what is a championship caliber offense are counting on it.

 

Aaron Kampman vs. Chris Williams

Aaron Kampman might be the biggest beneficiary of the Packers’ switch to a 3-4 defense.

With his pass-rushing instincts and combination of size and athleticism, he’s a guy who, like fellow 3-4 OLBs James Harrison and DeMarcus Ware, could rack up the sacks this season.

Kampman will likely man the left-outside linebacker position for most of Green Bay’s defensive downs this season, including their week one matchup against Chicago.

Chicago on the other hand, will look to show off their new franchise quarterback Jay Cutler and hopefully keep him vertical.

A 2008 first-round pick, Williams essentially gave up a sack on his first snap at left tackle last year when then-defensive-end Aaron Kampman blew right past him. Grossman snuck away, saving Williams’ blushes, but it was an inauspicious debut to say the least.

Williams will once again face Kampman tomorrow when he debuts as Chicago’s new right tackle. With the addition of Orlando Pace at left tackle, Williams will have the chance to develop his considerable talents.

He’ll also have the chance for a little payback. If he shuts down Kampman, it’ll be Aaron, not Chris, hearing the boo-birds say he’s not cut out for the position.

 

Albert Haynesworth vs. Brandon Jacobs

Having lived in Washington, D.C., the last three years, I can tell you that Skins fans are rabid supporters of their boys.

I saw the de facto memorial that the most loyal Washingtonians erected in the D.C. metro when Sean Taylor was killed in his home.

Unfortunately, they haven’t had much to cheer for the last few years. Despite solid work out of Jason Campbell who can finally run the same offense for consecutive years, an MVP-caliber season out of Clinton Portis, and the addition of Albert Haynesworth, many experts still pick either the Giants of the Eagles to come out of this division.

If the Skins had the good fortune to be located outside the Northeast Corridor, they’d probably have an easy ride to the playoffs with a defense that is still pretty fearsome.

They’re not so lucky though, and will have to earn their keep in what is still the toughest division in the conference. It’ll come hard and Haynesworth is a big part of that.

The most dominant 4-3 defensive tackle in the game today, Haynesworth has had problems staying on the field. But he’ll go up against the best rushing team in the NFL, a team he was brought in specifically to shut down.

Brandon Jacobs is probably the hardest man in the NFL to tackle. He’s got the legs of Earl Campbell and the speed to hang with a faster modern game.

He’s never going to be Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, but he’s a punishing runner who plows into the second level. There’s nothing neat about Brandon Jacobs, nothing shifty.

He’s going to come right at you and if you don’t get out of the way voluntarily, he will remove you from his path. He’s a joy to watch as a runner.

But Haynesworth is a special talent, too, and it’ll be a treat to see the two go head-to-head on inside run after inside run on Sunday.

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Fantasy Football Drafts: An Ode To Round 11

Okay, I admit it.

Schedule the intervention. Call A&E. Disconnect the modem.

I’m about to draft my seventh and eighth fantasy football teams this year.

Crazy, I know.

With the proliferation of online leagues, it’s become easier than ever to fall head over heels into fantasy football. I resisted the pull of the game for a long time, refusing to play until two years ago.

Since then I’ve done a lot of catching up.

What started as three leagues my first year became five last year.

I figure I write about football for a living, I keep abreast of all the league news anyway, watch most of the games every weekend, and understand the strategy of the game enough to just make the Sunday morning exercise of setting my lineup take a few minutes more.

But I’ve noticed something. When most of my friends/colleagues/opposing owners begin to mail in the picks on draft day, I actually get more into it.

To understand that, you probably need to know more about me as a sports fan. Remember the Celtics not too long ago? Not the KG-Ray Allen-Paul Pierce “Title Or Bust” Squad but the Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green “freshman class.”

I loved watching them. I watched every minute of that season. There’s something about a young squad, watching them develop and grow. You don’t cling to the bevel. You don’t agonize over every win and loss.

Yeah, you might make the playoffs, but before the season even begins you know you’re going to be free to go out those early summer nights.

Call me a masochist, if you will, but it’s a feeling I’m sure you’re all familiar with.

Take the NFL, no team in the league is without significant questions.

I have a Steeler fan friend who insists on adding “DEFENDING Super Bowl champion” before mentioning his hometown team? Ask him if Tempurpedic is sponsoring the field this season considering how often Roethlisberger will be on his back.

Patriots fan? Tell him to enjoy that 2011 pick in the long winter months during the impending lockout. 

Colts fan? Bob Sanders knows the league season is a whole 17 weeks, right?

Cowboys? Ask them if Jerry Jones built the screen that big so God can watch the Red Zone channel every time Owens catches one of his 10 touchdowns.

Raiders fan? Well…I think they’ve been through enough.

Regardless, every team is 0-0 right now. Every team has questions, but they have promise too. Football is, for everyone involved, fun to watch right now.

I feel that way about the late rounds of any fantasy football draft. It’s all hopes and dreams at this point.

For instance, here are the guys I drafted in round 11 of my drafts (so far):

Carson Palmer, Darren Sproles, Jay Cutler, Kevin Walter, Josh Morgan, Jerious Norwood, and Chester Taylor.

At this point in the draft, I’m going after nothing but upside. Carson Palmer could finally be healthy and throw for over 3,500 yards this season. Darren Sproles could be a legitimate (albeit small) threat. Jay Cutler could show why he’s considered one of the top young players in the league and prove he’s more than just petulant.

Josh Morgan? All upside. Morgan could blow up for 1200 yards. He’s like Santonio Holmes without Hines Ward (and with a more accurate quarterback throwing to him).

Jerious Norwood? My personal favorite. If Turner is healthy, he’ll likely be little help. If not? Watch out.

Of course, all of those guys could be major duds. They could go nowhere. But in round 11, you’re not relying on those guys.

Even if they fail to deliver, that’s what the waiver wire is for.

Of course, and here’s the kicker, any one of those guys could have a monster season. You know who I targeted in late rounds last year? DeAngelo Williams.

You know what I enjoyed so much last year? Everyone complaining I “ruined” the league by having Williams, a player I’ve owned on 75 percent of the teams the last three years.

I’ve been burned enough by Williams wasting space on my rosters that nothing pleased me more than seeing him finally put it all together.

Not for my rosters, but because I thoroughly enjoy seeing young players succeed. It’s why I watched all those Celtics games with something akin to pleasure. It’s why I won’t buy a Madden game until they add real player progression. It’s why I don’t put on cruise control once I fill out the top six spots on my roster.

So hate on, I say. I didn’t forego drafting fun players with upside so I could have New York Jets D/ST.

Besides, we’re all undefeated right now.

 

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With the Richard Seymour Trade, Bill Belichick Puts All the Pressure on Himself

The offseason in New England is always good for one or two surprises.

While Tedy Bruschi’s retirement didn’t exactly stun a lot of people, I had assumed that would be it.

Then, today, the New England Patriots announced they have traded Richard Seymour—arguably their most talented defensive player—to the Oakland Raiders for a 2011 first-round pick.

The Patriots’ roster is loaded with talent, but nobody has the depth to simply cut ties with a three-time first-team All-Pro defensive end who doesn’t turn 30 for another month.

Of course, there are many ways to spin this. My fellow B/R writer Samer Ismail is correct in pointing out that, with the impending free agency of Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Vince Wilfork, and Tom Brady in the next two years, there simply had to be some movement somewhere.

But when we look back on this offseason—Belichick’s first in New England without Scott Pioli—will it be remembered as a summer of savvy trades or bold moves that didn’t pan out?

Either way, without Pioli, the responsibility for the success of this team’s personnel moves falls squarely on Belichick’s shoulders.

While Belichick has always maintained the final say on personnel moves, Pioli has largely been given the credit for building the foundation with which New England has won three championships.

Now, this season’s success or failure will be seen, to an even greater degree than ever before, as Belichick’s doing.

This isn’t to say the move doesn’t make sense. Seymour hasn’t produced quite to the degree his first five years in the league promised, though last season was—in my opinion—a vintage performance by him.

I know that, for my money, I was excited to see what he could do in a contract year.

While the possible switch to the 4-3 defense reduces his value, this move is also, in some ways, a judgment upon Vince Wilfork’s ability.

It’s not just that the two players playing shoulder-to-shoulder in the three-man front invites comparison, but they both also epitomize the qualities a 3-4 defense requires from its linemen.

It’s nothing but a tremendous compliment that Wilfork, maybe only by virtue of his age (just 28 in November), is probably the better bet in the long-term, assuming the Patriots still plan on running the 3-4.

Now the Patriots have flipped Seymour for a first-round pick in 2011, which is, to my mind, a smart move.

Looking at the Raiders, I see a team more talented than people think, but one that seems to have already jumped the tracks before the regular season has even begun. Will they turn it around and win a good share of games in 2010?

Most likely not. The pick then has a pretty high inherent value, since it could very well be a top-10 pick come 2011.

But, then again, couldn’t they have tried to get a 2010 first-rounder from another team so that they actually see some return for Seymour this decade?

Of course, my first reaction is that the Patriots treat drafting in the top 10 like Belichick treats sleeves.

But, with the uncertain labor negotiation situation, it’s a strong possibility that the owners will finally insist on a rookie wage scale.

Since the union doesn’t yet represent any player that would be affected by that scale, and since the only people upset by that change who have a voice are the agents, I envision that being something the union will be willing to bend on in order to preserve some of the other benefits they’ll seek.

The NFLPA isn’t dumb; if it can preserve a larger share of the shared revenues or secure better benefits by conceding something that won’t cost a single player they currently represent a dime, it’s going to do it.

Assuming that labor contract does eventually get finished, that pick will have the talent value of a top-10 pick but will come at a fraction of the financial cost that a 2010 top pick would demand.

We don’t know how these moves will ultimately work out, but if the Patriots’ defense winds up being mediocre once again, we know right where the blame will land.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

When the Last Lion Leaves: Tedy Bruschi to Announce His NFL Retirement

It’s one of those funny old things, growing up a sports fan.

When you’re a kid, athletes just don’t seem real.

They pop in and out of your lives, flickering across the screen; four-inch-tall Adonises, larger than life.

Theirs is a world where you just play—where the lights don’t go out and mom is never calling you home.

They play and play, and when it’s all said and done, they go to Disney World.

You stand in your backyard and count down from five. You pretend to be them. You catch imaginary interceptions from imaginary quarterbacks to win imaginary Super Bowls.

You don’t think about the other side. The sheer dedication. The losses, off the field and on. The time away from their family. The brutal side of the game, of life.

Your team never loses; it just runs out of time. There’s no end to consider, no after.

You don’t think about those things—things like strokes. You don’t even know what that word means.

Yet for many in New England just growing up with that Patriot dynasty, their first real winning team, Tedy Bruschi became a very hard lesson.

I can’t imagine the thoughts that went through his mind after suffering a stroke, a young man at the height of his athletic life. 

Just a week after playing with his kids on the turf before the Super Bowl, Tedy Bruschi was suddenly playing chicken with his own mortality, asking the questions that I can only imagine kept him up many nights.

Why did this happen? What do I do next? Did football cause this? Can I still play? What about my family?

Maybe his years in football caused him to have a stroke. Maybe not. I don’t know that. But I know that when news broke of his stroke, everyone in New England suddenly realized how worthless a trophy can seem.

Now, new news is breaking. Tedy Bruschi, his ability no longer of equal measure with his desire, is surplus to requirements. Tedy Bruschi is retiring.

It’s a funny old thing, growing up a sports fan; watching your Sunday heroes grow into real people with real problems, with ACLs that tear and bones that break and careers that end.

Call it a favor. Call it New England being nice and giving Tedy the dignity of choosing his own way to leave.

Call it what you want, but even the cynic in me has to give the guy credit for walking out the door instead of finding his name on a cut list.

Where his life goes from here is impossible to say. Maybe he’ll “unretire.” Maybe he’ll take a well-deserved break.

Who knows? We only know where his life has been, where it has led him: to here, to now, to a place where football no longer needs him.

I’d call it a damn shame, but that’s not the truth.

The truth is Tedy Bruschi no longer needs football.

It was lucky to have him, and there’s no shame in that.

A Few (53) Good Men: A Look at New England’s Roster, Part II

This is the second part of a look at the likely composition of the Patriots’ final 53-man roster for the season. You can read the first part, forecasting the defensive group by going here.

Ah, now to the fun part.

The Patriot offense was an absolute powder keg in 2007. The additions of Wes Welker and Randy Moss were perfectly timed and helped bring Tom Brady’s game to heights most never foresaw.

Records were set and after one of the finest regular seasons of all time, the Patriots were undone only by one of the historic performances by the Giants in the Super Bowl.

Flash forward two years and hope seems to have returned to New England, but questions about the offense’s ability to recapture its former potency—especially in the wake of Brady’s major knee surgery, the offensive line’s at times spotty play against the top rushing teams in the league, and the departure of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels—linger on.

Many of the questions, as they pertain to the roster, are how the Patriots will arrange their embarrassment of riches into the 53 slots.

Despite returning their franchise quarterback, all their offensive line starters, and their top two wideouts, the Patriots were aggressive in the offseason adding tight ends Chris Baker and Alex Smith, wideouts Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis, and drafting smartly to round out one of the most talented camps I’ve ever seen in New England.

But all that talent creates a fierce competition for the limited spots the league allows. So with that, let’s look at who will (and won’t) likely find their name on the roster come week one.

Wide Receivers

Locks: Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis

Should make It: Julian Edelman

Bring your playbook: Terrence Nunn, Sam Aiken

This is one crowded group, to be sure.

There are plenty of teams in the league who would feel pretty good going into this season with this group of wide receivers—even if you took out Moss and Welker.

Galloway still brings a speed that you just can’t teach and has been very durable throughout his career, last year excepted. Greg Lewis has busted his backside in the preseason games down the field and shows the kind of blocking prowess (and effort) downfield that, coupled with his veteran experience, makes him an asset to the club.

In particular, I want to call out the great block he made on Wes Welker’s long screen play against the Bengals. He really threw himself into the block and opened up that play.

Julian Edelman may seem like he’s here by virtue of his punt return touchdown, but I think he showed a more valuable skill in his ability to slot into the offense in Welker’s absence.

The way the offense is structured, having a backup guy who can step in and play like Welker just gives the team a replacement if necessary and a complement threat opposite Wes on short slants in four-wide sets.

That Edelman allows the team to keep Welker out of punt returns except when absolutely necessary just adds to his value. The question really comes down to whether to keep Terrence Nunn, Sam Aiken, or make due with five wideouts and use Matthew Slater there if necessary.

Nunn has played very well and I think he’ll have the opportunity to remain on the scout team if no other team brings him in.

Overall, though, I’m of the mind that with a group this talented there’s little need to keep a sixth wideout on the roster.

Sam Aiken provides special teams ability, but so do many other players on this roster who are backing up at other positions.

I think if you’re slotting 25 players for the offense and defense, it comes down to keeping O’Callaghan as a fourth tackle or Aiken as your sixth WR and, with Mark LeVoir on the PUP list, I’d feel safer keeping a fourth tackle if I were the Patriots.

Tight End

Locks: Chris Baker

Should make it: Ben Watson, David Thomas

Bring your playbook: Alex Smith

This was a very weird competition all camp long. Going into camp it was pretty clear Belichick wanted some competition. While he brought in Chris Baker, the incumbent Ben Watson, Thomas, and Tyson DeVree must not have been enough for Belichick.

So, he gave up a 2010 draft choice for Alex Smith. It was a confusing move at the time, but one that may have paid dividends if it lit the right kind of fire under Watson, Thomas, and Baker.

Baker, in particular, has shown phenomenal ability in all aspects of the game since joining the team, relegating Ben Watson to the No. 2 option. Given Watson’s low salary ($900,000 a year) that’s a manageable position and might spur Watson to up his play.

Thomas makes the team as a third option and as a very good run blocker. I think the team could’ve managed without giving up the 2010 pick for Smith, but you can’t argue with the results if it brings better play out of the TE position for the Patriots in 2009.

The Patriots are likely trying to find a suitor for Alex Smith, who started 12 games last year in Tampa Bay and does have good upside.

Quarterback

Locks: Tom Brady, Andrew Walter, Kevin O’Connell

Should make it: N/A

Bring your playbook: Brian Hoyer

Brady heads up this unit, returning from injury. With Matt Cassel now plying his trade (and earning more than Brady) in Kansas City, the backup position was wide open once again. 

Second-year man Kevin O’Connell has shown good improvement this past year and is definitely one to watch for in the future, but I think Belichick will opt for the veteran backup Walter as the second man off the bench if the unthinkable happens two years in a row.

Brian Hoyer has shown good instincts and ability for an undrafted free agent out of Michigan State. I think he’ll find a nice home, whether on the practice squad or with some other club, assuming he doesn’t wind up on the IR because of whatever is currently ailing him.

He’s done a good deal to make a case for being on the roster, though, but the Patriots likely won’t keep four quarterbacks and simply can’t gamble having one total year of NFL experience behind Brady.

Running Back

Locks: Lawrence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk

Should make it: BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Bring your playbook: Chris Taylor

The Patriots rushing attack has been a source of intense speculation for this whole offseason.

Many casual fans look at the group and don’t see a standout rusher and, by extension, don’t see an outstanding rushing attack.

The numbers disagree.

The Patriots were sixth in the league (and second in the AFC) in yards per game and total rushing yards last season.

Yet coming in this year, there’s considerably more competition for carries than there has been in recent years.

Sammy Morris made his case filling in admirably (as he’s done his whole career) when Maroney bowed out for the season with a hurt shoulder. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, ditto.

Fred Taylor is just one of the most productive backs of all time who has never gotten the credit he deserves for a career that has seen him gain 11,271 yards for the Jacksonville Jaguars, yet only attend a single Pro Bowl.

He should be a lock hall-of-famer and a lock for the Patriots.

The real questions in this group come down to two players: Lawrence Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Green-Ellis has run very hard and looks like a valuable player given how injury prone the running back position is in the NFL.

Maroney, however, has developed a reputation as soft, a guy who has great athleticism but who too-often tap dances behind his blocks.

I think the reputation is undeserved. He tries to break the long run too often and hasn’t developed elite NFL vision, but he’s a solid back who played as long as he could through a broken shoulder last season, then kept mum when the whole world questioned his toughness.

Maroney deserves another chance to prove his doubters wrong. His opportunities will be limited by the arrival of Taylor, but he has to know this is his best, if not last, chance to prove he’s not a first-round bust.

Offensive Line

Locks: Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Nick Kaczur, Stephen Neal, Sebastian Vollmer, Rich Ohrnberger, Dan Connolly

Should make it: Ryan O’Callaghan

Bring your playbook: George Bussey, Billy Yates

While the starters were all likely returning, the trade of Russ Hochstein makes the picture of this group a little clearly. I’d say Rich Ohrnberger makes the club over veteran Billy Yates, while Dan Connolly could take over center duties behind Koppen with Russ gone.

Ryan O’Callaghan makes the club and gets some early opportunities to prove himself but I think he needs to continue a big showing if he wants to makes the final 53. With the team extending Mark LeVoir today, now on the PUP list, O’Callaghan’s opportunity to make the big club will likely be limited to these first few games.

At best, he may be showcasing himself for another team once LeVoir returns.

Nick Kaczur, much maligned on talk radio shows after the Bengals game, was also extended this week.

Nick gets a bad rap that is, largely, undeserved. He’s a very serviceable right tackle who is actually quite good in the running game, as most right tackles need to be.

He doesn’t always finish blocks the way you might like technically, but he gets the job done. He was particularly called out by many observers for the big hit Brady took but, like most things involving the offensive line, it was a case of multiple people, not just Nick, making errors.

The extension that he received perfectly explains the faith the club has in his ability, even if the finer points of offensive line play are invisible to the untrained eye.

Special Teams:

Locks: Stephen Gostkowski, Jake Ingram/Nathan Hodel, Chris Hanson

This is an easy group, as most of the special teams players in question beyond the specialists have already been discussed. The only decision here is whether to keep Jake Ingram or Nathan Hodel at long snapper to replace Lonnie Paxton.

As Belichick has stated, the long snapping position is all about consistency, which both guys have shown in the practices and camps the media has been able to see.

It really just comes down to who the team sees as the more reliable option, which may be a cut they wait until the last minute to make.

Other than that, Gostkowski and Hanson have looked pretty good so far despite facing no competition in camp. 

Overview:

While I wrote “Get your playbook” today for the group of guys likely to be left off the roster in this scenario, I’m not anywhere close to writing them off entirely.

Right now, this roster is stacked with talent but there are any number of things that can change between now and when the final cuts have to be in.

Some of these battles are likely already settled in the coaches’ minds, barring a huge turnaround or a major injury. I think that’s why you’re starting to see extensions and roster moves finalized.

But some of the fringe guys, especially the guys who are the second or third backup but offer special-teams impact, can still earn their spot.

Particularly I’m softening my stance on Matthew Slater. I originally put Slater as a lock, then saw him as a guy who should make the roster but wrote yesterday that he would likely be left out.

With some of the movement with the club today, I think he’s very much still in the discussion. His ability to play both ways and return kicks (as well as cover kicks, which he does very well) gives him the inside track to a roster spot over some other fringe guys.

Regardless, most of these picks came down to personal opinion and, really, splitting hairs based on a very limited look on what these guys are capable of.

I will say that, without a doubt, this is the most talented roster I’ve seen the Patriots field in a long time. It’s got, arguably, four hall of famers in Brady, Fred Taylor, Randy Moss, and Richard Seymour.

Vince Wilfork, too, certainly could get there eventually, especially given how the three-four has come back with a vengeance and how in demand he will be next season if he hits free agency.

Throw in what looks like a phenomenal rookie and sophomore class and this is a team primed to do big things in 2009.

The fact that it faces, again, an AFC that boasts teams like the Chargers, Steelers, and Colts—loaded with potential HOFers themselves—just means one thing:

It’s going to be a fun season.

 

 

 

 

4-3 or Bust? The New England Patriots and Their New-Look Defense

Much has been made of the Patriots surprising switch to the 4-3 defense in their first pre-season game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

After displaying a four-man front almost exclusively in the first game, I went back and looked at the tape of their second game against the Bengals in order to decipher what kind of defense they’ll ultimately run this season—and what it might mean for an old war horse suddenly finding himself without a position to play.

Looking at the first half of the game, when most of the Patriots and Bengals starters remained in the game, the Patriots switched between the 3-4 and the 4-3, sometimes within the same series.

Here’s the breakdown:

First Bengals possession: 12 plays, with just three down linemen in 10 of them

Second Bengals possession: five plays, all but one run with three down linemen

Third Bengals possession: 10 plays, all run from the 4-3 base

Fourth Bengals possession: one play, run out of the 4-3 resulting in a forced fumble

Fifth Bengals possession: four plays, three in 4-3 with one 3-4

Sixth Bengals possession: nine plays, one from the nickel, six out of the 4-3 and two from the 3-4.

So for the first half, the Patriots lined up 41 times and basically were split down the middle with a three-man front 17 times and a four-man front 23 times (they just had two down linemen in the one play they ran from a sub-package on a long third down).

What does this tell us? Well, it shows a remarkable amount of flexibility among the front seven of the Patriots. The ability to switch so quickly is remarkable, especially with guys who are younger and just beginning to learn the defense.

On the last drive of the half by the Bengals, in particular, the Patriots showed their ability to switch it up. They ran with a four-man front the first three plays then over the next four plays switched back and forth from three down linemen to four.

On the surface, there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot different between the 4-3 and the 3-4. Just an extra guy with his hand on the ground, right?

Well, that’s true, to a point. The big difference comes from the personnel grouping that the Patriots are capable of using in each system.

The Patriots run two different types of 4-3. One is much heavier, with the Patriots able to line up four 300+ pound linemen who all are adept at getting after the quarterback while stuffing the run and soaking up double teams.

The other 4-3 alignment is much more bent on getting after the passer and will likely involve the normal three down linemen with Derrick Burgess also getting his hand dirty before rushing.

So far, the 4-3 has been pretty successful in the first two pre-season games. The Patriots were largely able to contain the Eagles and Bengals with their starters in, although the secondary (Terrence Wheatley in particular) was victimized by the Bengals’ receivers.

The switch was still quite a surprise though coming into the season. As a half dozen teams have joined the trend and made the 3-4 their base defense, Belichick is going the exact opposite direction.

Still, when you look at the Patriots’ moves this off-season, the personnel they have under contract, and the guys they have to re-sign in the near future, their motives become a little clearer.

First, lets look at the Patriots draft. With Vince Wilfork eventually holding out of “voluntary” organized team activities, the fact that the team drafted three defensive tackles was seen largely as a “just in case” move to cover the team if Wilfork either held out into the season or refused the team’s contract offers after this season.

However, with the 4-3 now looking like it’ll be a common sight this year in New England, picking up some extra defensive tackles makes a lot more sense.

But the biggest effect the change may have—and the one that will probably surprise New England fans the most—may regard Tedy Bruschi’s future.

Even coming out in the 3-4, Bruschi didn’t play much in the first half, only entering the game with the backups. With four linebackers, Bruschi has less ground to cover, but he’s not as young as he used to be.

Also, there’s just not much behind him in terms of inside linebacker talent. Gary Guyton is his immediate backup, but that’s about it for depth. It sounds simple, but with far greater depth along the defensive front the 4-3 just plays to their strengths more.

In the 4-3, Jerod Mayo is the clear choice starter at middle linebacker, especially as evidenced by Belichick’s decision to give him the defensive radio.

Bill claimed it was by virtue of his position in the middle of the field, but in a 3-4 the more veteran Bruschi would’ve also been in the same position.

Personally, I think Belichick believes Mayo is ready for some more responsibility, and Bruschi may have to split time with Gary Guyton.

Moving to the 4-3 also opens up the team’s options concerning Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork.

It’ll be difficult for the team to re-sign both players, but by moving away from the 3-4, where a big, hulking nose tackle is essential, the team certainly gives itself a little more leverage in their future negotiations with Wilfork.

So what will the defense look like come Week 1?

Right now, they’ve played one game almost exclusively in a 4-3 and began the Bengals came in the more familiar 3-4, so it’s hard to know exactly what they’ll end up doing.

I think it’ll be a hybrid, showing both alignments to opposing offenses as down, distance, and personnel requires.

Whatever happens they’ll have to shore up the fundamental problems they had last season, especially on third down, no matter how many men are on the field.

Patriots Preseason: Things To Watch For Against Bengals

Here we are, just at the end of training camp, and already so much has changed for the New England Patriots.

The fans got their first in-game look at Tom Brady since Week 1 of last season and, as most analysts predicted, there’s been infinitely more concern over the Red Sox’ offense this fall than the Patriots’.

Brady played very well in the first game, the offense looked sharp, and the first-team defense largely shut down Philadelphia’s first-team offense.

But the sample size is about as small as it gets for those of us trying to predict the future, so here’s some of the most important things to look for when New England takes on the Cincinnati Bengals Thursday night at Gillette.

1. Continued Progress From Brady

Tom Brady’s line from his first game back was 10/15 for 100 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

That’s all well and good—for the first preseason game. But they don’t give awards for being great in the preseason.

The Bengals’ defense isn’t expected to be exceptional, but another solid Brady night (especially if he manages to stay interception-free this time) will really put minds in New England at ease as their franchise works into game shape.

His playing time will be a particularly important aspect to pay attention to. Brady will likely still play multiple series, but it’ll be very interesting to see if the Patriots begin to scale down Brady’s playing time already.

I can’t see him playing less than two series, but I don’t think the Patriots will want him facing more than a quarter’s worth of live rush.

These games are important for Brady, but with roster cuts coming September first Belichick will have some tough decisions to make when it comes to players on the periphery of the roster.

So, as important as Brady’s reps are, just as important could be the second-team offense’s production.

2. The Continued Use of a Four-Man Front

The more strategically-bent football minds around Foxboro have been lighting up call-in lines and message boards about the Patriots’ supposed switch back to the 4-3 defense.

As I’ve written several times here and for other outlets, the Patriots are one of the vanguard 3-4 defenses of the past decade—a decade that has seen the three-man front slowly creep back into favor with nearly half the league running it in some form.

My theory has always been Belichick employed the defense largely because it allows him to select specific players whose talents are extremely valuable in the 3-4 but were always undervalued in what was considered the more conventional 4-3 alignment—positions like the OLB pass rusher, the big bruising nose tackle, and two-gap monster specialist defensive ends.

But in the Philadelphia game, Belichick employed four down linemen almost exclusively, with players like Richard Seymour switching all along the line from defensive end to 4-3 defensive tackle.

Strategically, it’s an unexpected move but one that explains many of their most puzzling offseason moves.

I’ll get into these more in depth after the game (should the use of a four-man front continue in this game, it’s likely they’ll switch it up though) but it could signal that Belichick feels a tipping point of sorts has been reached where 3-4 talents are now overvalued and a 4-3 can most effectively corral the conference’s high-powered offenses with the personnel the Patriots currently employ.

Look for that article at the end of the week, but Thursday, keep tabs on how many players line up in a three-point stance.

Chances are, you’ll see more than three Patriots with their hand in some Foxboro dirt.

3. Who’s On Brady’s Coattails This Time?

Kevin O’Connell has looked more than competent in his limited preseason time this year and last, but it was Andrew Walter, not Kevin, who was the first backup quarterback to enter the game in Philadelphia.

Now, Belichick explained this as his desire to get Walter as many snaps as possible so he could get acclimated to the Patriots’ offense, but it wouldn’t have been that hard to get O’Connell into the game before Walter and still give the new guy plenty of time.

Could Belichick be looking to have a veteran backup QB and just keep O’Connell as the designated emergency quarterback (a third QB who doesn’t count against the gameday 45-man roster but if he plays during the first three quarters the first two QBs have to stay out) until he develops more?

It’s an interesting side story and it’ll be good to see who gets the nod first on Thursday, especially if Brady comes out after only a few series.

So far this week, O’Connell has taken the majority of first team snaps when Brady has been elsewhere, so my guess is it’ll be him.

Either way, if Brady plays short time it’s likely the first backup in will get a taste of Cincinnatti’s first-team defense, which will be a solid test for that player’s ability to lead the offense against a real, live NFL defense.

Either way, whoever performs best in this game (and in practice this week) could go a long way toward solidifying themselves as the true backup on gamedays.

4. Have Ball, Will Carry?

The Patriots will have a running back committee this season. That much should be understood at this point.

But a committee isn’t all equitable, somebody’s got to chair the thing. For some players, that’s much more important than just how many yards they’ll rack up this season.

In the first game Sammy Morris got the ball the most, rushing 12 times for 45 yards. After him, Lawrence Maroney got it six times for 14 yards, Green-Ellis four times for 31 yards, and Faulk just once (though his role is obviously different).

Fred Taylor didn’t make an appearance, but I can’t see him not being on the roster.

However, there is a possibility that one of the running backs on the team will not find his way onto the final 53-man roster.

Morris and Faulk are affordable guys who serve their purpose, but who knows what the team has seen out of Fred Taylor yet. (I doubt he’s in any kind of jeopardy, but I’d like to see him carry the ball, at least.)

The Patriots will not have any roster spots to waste on somebody who will ultimately be dead weight, and the decision will likely come down to either keeping an extra offensive lineman, a tight end with upside but limited skill set, or the extra running back.

Therefore, it’s going to be very interesting to see who ultimately carries the load for them against the Bengals.

Is the team still holding out hope that Maroney’s talents will click and he can put together a solid, healthy season?

Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis win himself a roster spot or be one of the more difficult cuts when the season starts?

What will we see out of signee RB Chris Taylor? Is he just a camp body? A possible fullback? Or will the team employ a TE to block for its considerable collection of running backs?

All these questions need answers and playing a Bengals defense that was in the bottom third of the league last year against the rush should be a good first step.

5. How Good Exactly Is the Pass Defense?

Carson Palmer is making perhaps his final bid to return to his former status as one of the elite quarterback talents in the NFL.

Of course, that means he got injured in the first preseason game, spraining his ankle.

After promptly declaring himself 100 percent to play against New England after the game, word dropped this week that he will actually be absent Thursday night.

So much for being completely healthy again.

The Patriots will then get to tee off against the likes of J.T. O’Sullivan at Gillette Stadium. While O’Sullivan is hardly a vintage Carson Palmer, he’s still proved he’s a competent quarterback, posting a 73.6 QB rating in nine games last year for the 49ers.

New England’s pass defense has seen the most overhaul of any unit on the team, with many of the starting positions wide open.

I know I’ll be waiting to see if the new-look group has the ability to keep Chris Henry (100 yards last week on seven catches) and Chad Ochocinco in check.

Specifically, I’m looking to see if there’s more positive contributions to be had from rookies Patrick Chung and Darius Butler and camp superstar Brandon Meriweather as they continue their young NFL careers.

So what are you folks paying special attention to? The coaching moves? The run-pass balance in playcalling? Or simply looking to get another glimpse of Mini-Wes Julian Edelman’s electric athletic ability?

No matter how you slice it, football’s back.

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