2009 NFL Playoffs: WhatIfSports.com’s Wild Card Preview

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, are located here.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see our season-to-date performance, click here.

 

Wild Card Games

Four wild card games, three Week 17 rematches.

With the NFL playoffs beginning this weekend, Arizona and Green Bay, Dallas and Philadelphia, and Cincinnati and the New York Jets will all be squaring off for the second consecutive week.

Does the computer see rematch repeats?

In a word, yes.

 

Philadelphia at Dallas

Quarterback Tony Romo threw for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns, Dallas’ defense allowed less than 40 yards rushing and the Cowboys clinched a home-field rematch against the Eagles with a 24-0 victory in Week 17. Now they’ll try to beat Philadelphia for the third time this season and a second time in as many weeks in the first round of the playoffs.

Philadelphia boasts the fifth-best scoring offense in the league at 26.8 points per game but has scored a total of 16 against the Cowboys this season, as Dallas’ defense has stymied Donovan McNabb and big-play wide receiver DeSean Jackson.

Dallas’ offense, on the other hand, ranks in the top 10 in nearly every major statistic except for points, but the Cowboys had two of their best games against the Eagles. Two of Romo’s eight 300-yard games came against Philadelphia, and the Cowboys average more than eight yards per pass attempt.

In the first of three Week 17 rematches, the computer begins the trend of liking last week’s winner. Romo’s numbers certainly don’t stand out, but the Cowboys once again make the Eagles one-dimensional, beating the Eagles 63 percent of the time, by an average score of 23-16.

 

Baltimore at New England

The only wild card game that isn’t a rematch from last week is a rematch of a Week Four thriller that saw the Patriots beat the Ravens, 27-21. That meeting left both teams 3-1 and provided an exciting quarterback battle that might have gone the other way had Derrick Mason not dropped a pass that would have led to a fourth-down conversion.

Joe Flacco threw for 264 yards but needed nearly 50 attempts to get there, numbers indicative of Baltimore’s mark of 7.1 yards per completion. Ray Rice eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground in just 11 carries, a number that helped bolster an impressive rushing mark of nearly five yards per carry. The Ravens will likely have to use that ground game against a defense that gives up just 7.0 yards per pass attempt.

The Patriots boast one of the NFL’s best passing offenses but lost a key cog in the final week when receiver Wes Welker went down with a knee injury. Quarterback Tom Brady threw for just 258 yards and one touchdown in the Week Four win, but he also ran for another. Now he’ll have to try and tame the Ravens with a depleted receiving corps and most likely not a ton of help on the ground against one of the league’s best run defenses.

Behind the strong play of that defense—they limit New England to just 3.6 yards per carry and do their best to slow Brady down in the average projections—the visiting Ravens get the best of the Patriots to move on in the AFC playoffs 59.1 percent of the time, pulling off a two-point upset on average.

 

Green Bay at Arizona

Like the Cowboys against the Eagles, the Packers throttled the Cardinals just this past week only to set up a rematch in the exact same venue. Behind yet another efficient day from quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Rod Woodson’s career-high ninth interception of the season—one of three picks on the day by the Packers—Green Bay rolled to a 33-7 victory.

Rodgers quietly put together an impressive season despite early season sack woes. He finished with a passer rating over 100 and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt. Running back Ryan Grant also rebounded with a decent season, though Green Bay averaged just 4.3 yards per carry. The Packers will have to maintain that balance against a defense that certainly doesn’t look flashy in terms of yards per game but looks much better in terms of yards per carry and per pass attempt.

The Cardinals threw three more interceptions last week, finishing with a minus-7 turnover margin that looks daunting compared to Green Bay’s league-best plus-24 margin. Running backs Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower complement each other well, but neither averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry and Kurt Warner averaged just 7.3 yards per pass attempt. All of these numbers should spell trouble against one of the league’s top overall defenses.

And it does, according to the computer. Behind a big day from Ryan Grant, who scores in nearly every one of 10,001 simulations and another efficient day from Rodgers, the Packers top the Cardinals for the second straight week. Green Bay wins 65.2 percent of the time, 26-22.

 

New York Jets at Cincinnati

This one may feel a little bit different but winds up with the same outcome in the computers’ view.

Many believed the New York Jets backed their way into the playoffs against the backup units of Indianapolis and Cincinnati, the latter of which allowed the Jets’ starters to run all over the place to the tune of 257 yards on the ground in a 37-0 thrashing. Now the teams will head back to Cincinnati for the rematch.

The Bengals more or less rode running back Cedric Benson all the way to the playoffs, but while Benson helped produce one of the top rushing offenses in yards per game, he averaged just 4.2 yards per carry.

Quarterback Carson Palmer’s numbers are equally mediocre as he averages just 6.6 yards per carry. None of that bodes well for an offense perhaps facing the toughest defense in the league, as the Jets give up less than four yards per carry and just over five yards per pass attempt.

The Jets’ offensive numbers aren’t that much more impressive, but they have used a handful of running backs to maintain a 4.5 yards-per-carry average. They’ve basically been successful when rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez takes care of the ball and he should be OK there as the Bengals produced an even turnover margin. And the game could rest on his arm, as Cincinnati allows less than four yards per carry.

In the end, New York’s defense is simply too much in the lowest-scoring game of the first round. Neither quarterback produces great numbers but in the end, the Jets rushing attack gets it done more often than the Bengals as New York wins 68 percent of the time, by an average score of 18-14.

 

NFL Wild Card Week
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Philadelphia Eagles	37.0	17	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	63.0	23	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	59.1	23	Boxscore
@ New England Patriots	40.9	21	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	65.2	26	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	34.8	22	Simulate Game
New York Jets	68.0	18	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	32.0	14	Simulate Game

 

WhatIfSports.com is a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, we can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation engine to present the most comprehensive, deterministic, and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams.

We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team.

All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on strength-of-schedule, adjusted stats and updated depth charts, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

The same football engine is used in our NFL SimMatchup feature.

Check out our Week 16 Picks and see who has the inside track to the playoffs. With only two games left, every one is significant.

Also, speaking of playoffs, you must be in the playoffs of your fantasy football league.

Check out our fantasy projections for help on setting your rosters for Week 16.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Indianapolis Colts	+1	86.5	24.4	20.9
2.	New Orleans Saints	-1	83.7	29.5	23.2
3.	Minnesota Vikings	–	71.7	24.8	22.1
4.	San Diego Chargers	–	70.2	24.9	23.1
5.	Philadelphia Eagles	–	68.8	25.8	21.0
6.	Dallas Cowboys	+2	64.5	25.3	20.0
7.	Cincinnati Bengals	-1	61.3	21.8	20.1
8.	New England Patriots	+2	60.3	23.3	22.0
9.	Green Bay Packers	-2	59.7	24.6	24.1
10.	New York Giants	+3	59.2	25.4	20.5
11.	Denver Broncos	-2	58.8	23.0	18.5
12.	Baltimore Ravens	–	57.4	22.8	20.7
13.	Pittsburgh Steelers	+1	57.2	28.0	20.9
14.	Arizona Cardinals	+1	55.7	22.3	26.0
15.	Tennessee Titans	+2	55.2	26.1	21.0
16.	New York Jets	-5	54.7	23.8	18.6
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	Miami Dolphins	+1	51.9	22.2	20.8
18.	Carolina Panthers	+2	49.7	24.8	20.5
19.	Jacksonville Jaguars	-3	48.3	20.6	22.5
20.	San Francisco 49ers	-1	47.4	22.9	21.0
21.	Atlanta Falcons	–	46.8	19.5	21.9
22.	Houston Texans	–	45.9	20.4	24.1
23.	Buffalo Bills	+1	40.7	21.7	21.4
24.	Oakland Raiders	+3	35.5	18.9	23.9
25.	Seattle Seahawks	-2	34.5	19.1	25.2
26.	Chicago Bears	–	33.7	18.4	25.0
27.	Washington Redskins	-2	33.2	18.9	21.1
28.	Cleveland Browns	+1	25.9	19.7	25.3
29.	Kansas City Chiefs	-1	23.4	19.2	27.0
30.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+2	20.9	17.9	24.3
31.	Detroit Lions	-1	19.3	19.0	26.7
32.	St. Louis Rams	-1	17.2	19.4	25.0

WhatIfSports.com can be reached with any comments, questions or topic suggestions at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 16 NFL Picks From WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. With two weeks remaining in the season each game this week has a lot of significance as teams make their push towards the playoffs…or towards the top of the draft.

All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and our fantasy projections as well as links to the pre-season preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Playoff Scenarios/Preview

With two weeks left in the NFL season, the playoff picture is pretty simple for those leading their respective races. Six teams—half of the field—have already clinched a playoff berth or more with two games left.

Surprisingly, there are six clear front-runners for the final six spots. All they have to do is win—some once, some twice—and they’re in.

If only it were that simple.

In the NFC, it might be. The 9-5 Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys sit in the driver’s seat and could each clinch a spot if they win and the New York Giants lose this week.

The Packers should get their victory as they host the Seattle Seahawks as they win more than 71 percent of the time in the simulated matchups. The Cowboys are even better shape as they go to Washington and win more than 77 percent of the time against the Redskins.

Their playoff statuses may hinge simply on the Giants this week, who win just 55 percent of their 10,001 matchups when they host the Carolina Panthers.

Seems simple, right? We’ll see. The chances of all three of those outcomes coming through—a Green Bay victory, Dallas victory and New York loss—which would lock in the six NFC playoff teams is 24.8 percent.

The AFC is has even more complicated scenarios but at the same time, the conference has two teams in the driver’s seat as well.

Just two teams have clinched playoff spots thus far, the Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Chargers. The New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals can join that pack simply by winning one of their final two games.

The Patriots host Jacksonville this week and win nearly 62 percent of the time, while the Bengals get the Chiefs, who they beat at a nearly 83 percent clip. They could also get in with some other outside help, but the chances of New England and Cincinnati both locking up a playoff spot on their own by simply winning their matchups is better than 51 percent.

The chances of the rest of the AFC playoff races become a murky mess are much higher.

The Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens, each at 8-6, control their own destiny. Win out over the next two weeks and they are in.

The problem is the computer doesn’t have either one of them winning the majority of their simulations. Denver heads to Philadelphia, where the Eagles are in but are trying to wrap up an NFC East title, and wins just 46.9 percent of the time.

And Baltimore is in an even worse predicament. The Ravens face the Steelers, who face an uphill battle to get into the playoffs themselves, but broke their losing skid last week and win 66.2 percent of their 10,001 matchups with Baltimore.

The chances of both Denver and Baltimore losing this week is 35.1 percent, a number that six the 7-7 teams have to be salivating at, even if the Broncos (against the Chiefs) and the Ravens (against Oakland) are both heavy favorites—87.5 percent and 69.0 percent, respectively—next week.

With it looking like teams will need nine victories to secure a spot in the AFC, those 7-7 teams need victories this week.

With Houston and Miami playing each other, one team is certain to move to 8-7 and the Dolphins win that game more than two-thirds of the time. The Jacksonville Jaguars actually sit in the best spot of all 7-7 teams in terms of tie-breakers, but have to face a Patriots team looking to clinch a division and win just 38.2 percent of the time.

The Steelers seem to need the most help, but host Baltimore and win nearly two-thirds of their simulated matchups. The Jets may have the toughest road to hoe of any 7-7 team with the Colts and Bengals still on the docket and win this week just under 47 percent of the time, though the computer doesn’t factor in teams who have already clinched a spot sitting down starters.

And the Titans’ dream of making the playoffs after their atrocious start remains alive and they actually end San Diego’s nine-game winning streak 64 percent of the time behind another huge game from Chris Johnson.

All of this aside, there are some very outside chances that all six AFC spots are sealed up this week.

Denver needs a victory, a Jacksonville loss, a Miami loss, a Jets loss, and a Pittsburgh loss to get in. That happens just 1.7 percent of the time.

If that bleak scenario pans out, the Ravens would also be in by virtue of a victory and losses by Jacksonville and New York. Baltimore is also in if: it wins, Jacksonville loses and Denver loses (11.1 percent); or it wins, Miami loses, New York loses and Denver loses (3.1%).

All of that clear? Good.

Just know this. There’s a 99.6 percent chance that at least one playoff spot will be on the line in Week 17.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 16
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Kansas City Chiefs	17.1	15	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	82.9	28	Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17.7	18	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	82.3	32	Simulate Game
Detroit Lions	22.4	17	Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers	77.6	29	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	28.8	19	Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers	71.2	27	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	32.7	17	Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins	67.3	24	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	33.8	20	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers	66.2	27	Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers	36.0	22	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	64.0	28	Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars	38.2	19	Boxscore
@ New England Patriots	61.8	25	Simulate Game
St. Louis Rams	41.8	21	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	58.2	26	Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers	45.0	20	Boxscore
@ New York Giants	55.0	23	Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders	49.3	18	Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns	50.7	20	Simulate Game
Denver Broncos	46.9	18	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	53.1	21	Simulate Game
New York Jets	46.9	19	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	53.1	22	Simulate Game
Buffalo Bills	55.0	21	Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons	45.0	20	Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys	77.4	24	Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins	22.6	16	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	76.4	26	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	23.6	19	Simulate Game

Other Notable Names in Week 16

Its reunion weekend in the NFL. Larry Johnson and the Bengals take on the Cheifs – Johnson’s former team. Johnson was a former first round pick of Kansas City and rushed for 6,015 yards in 6 and a half seasons.

Brian Dawkins signed with Denver as a free agent this past offseason to help their struggling secondary. This week Dawkins’ current team, the Broncos, visits his old team, the Eagles, where he spent 13 seasons.

Also don’t forget Shaun Suisham . He was signed by the Cowboys this week after Nick Folk missed his league leading 10th field goal Saturday night against the Saints. Suisham steps right in to kick for the Cowboys Sunday night against the team that cut him earlier this year for also missing a kick against the Saints – the Redskins

WhatIfSports.com is a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, we can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL: Week 15 Picks by WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game in the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to our preseason preview, are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers team and player ratings adjusted for strength of schedule, and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: Bengals 20 @ Chargers 24

The Colts clinched a first-round bye back in September, it seems, and just last week locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The other first-round bye is up for grabs in San Diego this weekend, as the Bengals visit the Chargers in a huge AFC showdown with major playoff implications.

With a win and a Denver loss, the Chargers win the AFC West; the Bengals can take the AFC North and control their playoff seed destiny with a win here.

With games against Kansas City and the Jets closing out the season, a win in San Diego could be crucial for the Bengals, especially coming off a loss in Minnesota.

We simulated the Chargers vs. Bengals 10,001 times to find the most likely winner; the Chargers won 57.2% of the time, by an average score of 23.5-19.5.

The Chargers will win with the help of Philip Rivers, who has yet to lose a December matchup in his NFL career.  In our simulations, Rivers threw for an average of 267 yards and 1.7 TDs per game. The running game will likely fall flat for the Chargers, but credit Mike Zimmer’s stellar run defense for that. Tomlinson and Sproles combined for under 70 yards on average in our simulated faceoffs.

Meanwhile, the Bengals’ three-headed running game will likely be used to their benefit. Cedric Benson, Bernard Scott, and Larry Johnson carried the ball a combined 28 times for 125 yards in our mock matchups. But the Bengals’ passing game struggled, as it has for most of the season.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 15
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Atlanta Falcons	13.2	12	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	86.8	27	Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders	14.5	12	Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos	85.5	26	Simulate Game
Chicago Bears	16.0	14	Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens	84.0	28	Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30.5	16	Boxscore
@ Seattle Seahawks	69.5	24	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	33.8	17	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	66.2	25	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	35.2	22	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers	64.8	28	Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys	39.7	25	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	60.3	30	Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals	42.8	19	Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers	57.2	24	Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers	49.0	19	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	51.0	22	Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts	53.2	23	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	46.8	22	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	54.1	25	Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers	45.9	24	Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns	54.8	22	Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs	45.2	21	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	55.0	22	Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams	45.0	21	Simulate Game
New York Giants	61.7	20	Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins	38.3	18	Simulate Game
New England Patriots	63.9	20	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	36.1	18	Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals	67.3	24	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	32.7	21	Simulate Game

 

Other Notable Games in Week 15

The Colts and Saints both remain unbeaten 14 games into the season.  Our simulations have the Colts beating the on-the-playoff-bubble Jaguars in their Week 15 matchup by an extremely slim margin of 23.1-22.1.  Peyton Manning threw for an average of 250 yards and the Colts ran for 125 total yards, winning 53.2% of the simulated matchups.

The Saints handed the Cowboys their third straight December loss 60.3% of the time by an average score of 30.4-25.1.

We predict the Steelers will snap a five-game losing streak by beating the Green Bay Packers; the Steelers won 64.8% of our matchups. The Titans should stay alive in the AFC playoff picture, beating the Dolphins 66.2% of the time in simulation.

Other Notable Names in Week 15

In Baltimore, Ray Rice and Joe Flacco look to put up huge numbers against the Bears. Rice had 94 yards rushing (0.9 TD) and 36 yards receiving while Flacco threw for almost 235 yards in our matchups. These promising performances vault both into our top 12 of our Fantasy Football Projections for Week 15.

Joshua Cribbs helped the Browns win their second straight game, running for 77 yards and posting 17 receiving yards on average (0.7 and 0.1 TDs respectively). Cribbs is our top ranked WR (based mostly on his rushing stats) and 29th overall.

WhatIfSports.com is a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, we can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 13 Fantasy Football Projections

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football . Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

 

 

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

 

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Redskins	24.4
2.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Browns	22.6
3.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Dolphins	21.0
4.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Cardinals	20.6
5.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Jaguars	20.5
6.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	Titans	20.0
7.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Packers	19.9
8.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Vikings	19.7
9.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Ravens	19.5
10.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Packers	19.1
11.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Cardinals	18.3
12.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Seahawks	18.0
13.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	Colts	17.2
14.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Seahawks	17.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	Texans	17.0
16.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Raiders	16.8
17.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Rams	16.6
18.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Bears	16.6
19.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Falcons	16.3
20.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Raiders	16.0
21.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Chiefs	15.7
22.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Giants	15.6
23.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Buccaneers	15.3
24.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Cowboys	15.2
25.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Lions	14.9
26.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Bills	14.7
27.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Falcons	14.7
28.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Vikings	14.3
29.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Patriots	13.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Jaguars	13.8
31.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	49ers	13.6
32.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Lions	13.3
33.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	Texans	13.3
34.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	Jets	13.2
35.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Chiefs	13.1
36.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Redskins	13.1
37.	Josh Freeman	QB	Buccaneers	Panthers	13.0
38.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	Titans	13.0
39.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Cowboys	12.9
40.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Bills	12.8
41.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Ravens	12.6
42.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Rams	12.5
43.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Saints	12.3
44.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Browns	12.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	Broncos	12.0
46.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Browns	11.9
47.	Matt Moore	QB	Panthers	Buccaneers	11.9
48.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Bengals	11.8
49.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Vikings	11.8
50.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Cardinals	11.7
51.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Giants	11.7
52.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	Colts	11.6
53.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Dolphins	11.6
54.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Dolphins	11.5
55.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Chiefs	11.4
56.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Raiders	11.3
57.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Seahawks	11.3
58.	Chris Redman	QB	Falcons	Eagles	11.3
59.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Redskins	11.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Dolphins	11.2
61.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	Bills	Jets	11.0
62.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Steelers	10.9
63.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Jaguars	10.8
64.	Bruce Gradkowski	QB	Raiders	Steelers	10.7
65.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Browns	10.6
66.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Giants	10.6
67.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Ravens	10.5
68.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Broncos	10.4
69.	Brady Quinn	QB	Browns	Chargers	10.4
70.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Lions	10.3
71.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Eagles	10.3
72.	Bengals	DEF		Lions	10.3
73.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	Titans	10.3
74.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Buccaneers	10.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Jerious Norwood	RB	Falcons	Eagles	10.1
76.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	49ers	9.9
77.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	Panthers	9.9
78.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Chiefs	9.8
79.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Raiders	9.8
80.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Packers	9.7
81.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Lions	9.6
82.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	Titans	9.5
83.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Redskins	9.4
84.	Rock Cartwright	RB	Redskins	Saints	9.3
85.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Patriots	9.2
86.	Chris Chambers	WR	Chiefs	Broncos	9.2
87.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Cowboys	9.1
88.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	49ers	9.1
89.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Vikings	9.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Kyle Boller	QB	Rams	Bears	9.0
91.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Giants	8.9
92.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	Colts	8.9
93.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Giants	8.9
94.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Redskins	8.8
95.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Rams	8.8
96.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Packers	8.8
97.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Browns	8.7
98.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Cardinals	8.7
99.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Buccaneers	8.6
100.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Redskins	8.6
101.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Raiders	8.6
102.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Ravens	8.5
103.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Rams	8.5
104.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Cardinals	8.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Matthew Stafford	QB	Lions	Bengals	8.4
106.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	Titans	8.3
107.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Falcons	8.3
108.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Browns	8.2
109.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Vikings	8.1
110.	Darren McFadden	RB	Raiders	Steelers	8.0
111.	John Carney	K	Saints	Redskins	8.0
112.	Jason Avant	WR	Eagles	Falcons	8.0
113.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	Bills	8.0
114.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Panthers	7.9
115.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Buccaneers	7.9
116.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Eagles	7.9
117.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Falcons	7.8
118.	Mario Manningham	WR	Giants	Cowboys	7.8
119.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	Dolphins	7.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Rams	7.7
121.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Jaguars	7.7
122.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Panthers	7.7
123.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Dolphins	7.7
124.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Jets	7.7
125.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Ravens	7.6
126.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Bills	7.6
127.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Jets	7.6
128.	Bills	DEF		Jets	7.5
129.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Bears	7.5
130.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Seahawks	7.5
131.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Jets	Bills	7.4
132.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	Colts	7.4
133.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Falcons	7.3
134.	Bernard Scott	RB	Bengals	Lions	7.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	Bengals	7.3
136.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Vikings	7.2
137.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	Jaguars	7.2
138.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Cowboys	7.2
139.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Saints	7.1
140.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	Bills	7.1
141.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Chiefs	7.1
142.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Steelers	7.0
143.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Browns	7.0
144.	Billy Cundiff	K	Ravens	Packers	7.0
145.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Giants	7.0
146.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	Texans	7.0
147.	49ers	DEF		Seahawks	7.0
148.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Patriots	6.9
149.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	49ers	6.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Danny Ware	RB	Giants	Cowboys	6.9
151.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	Titans	6.8
152.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Chargers	6.8
153.	Chris Brown	RB	Texans	Jaguars	6.8
154.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	Giants	6.7
155.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	Texans	6.7
156.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Eagles	6.7
157.	Saints	DEF		Redskins	6.7
158.	Connor Barth	K	Buccaneers	Panthers	6.6
159.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Eagles	6.6
160.	Jermichael Finley	TE	Packers	Ravens	6.6
161.	Eagles	DEF		Falcons	6.6
162.	Chester Taylor	RB	Vikings	Cardinals	6.6
163.	Chargers	DEF		Browns	6.5
164.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	49ers	6.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Broncos	DEF		Chiefs	6.4
166.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	49ers	6.4
167.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Rams	6.3
168.	Bears	DEF		Rams	6.3
169.	Panthers	DEF		Buccaneers	6.3
170.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Redskins	6.3
171.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Seahawks	6.3
172.	Steelers	DEF		Raiders	6.2
173.	Raiders	DEF		Steelers	6.2
174.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Jets	6.2
175.	Patriots	DEF		Dolphins	6.2
176.	Austin Collie	WR	Colts	Titans	6.2
177.	Mike Tolbert	RB	Chargers	Browns	6.2
178.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Bengals	6.1
179.	Tony Scheffler	TE	Broncos	Chiefs	6.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Antonio Bryant	WR	Buccaneers	Panthers	6.0
181.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	Texans	6.0
182.	David Thomas	TE	Saints	Redskins	6.0
183.	Brian Hartline	WR	Dolphins	Patriots	5.9
184.	Jets	DEF		Bills	5.9
185.	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	Vikings	Cardinals	5.9
186.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Vikings	5.9
187.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Cowboys	5.9
188.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Chargers	5.9
189.	Delanie Walker	TE	49ers	Seahawks	5.9
190.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Eagles	5.9
191.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Raiders	5.8
192.	Seahawks	DEF		49ers	5.8
193.	Laveranues Coles	WR	Bengals	Lions	5.8
194.	Phil Dawson	K	Browns	Chargers	5.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	Lions	5.7
196.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	Steelers	5.7
197.	Ravens	DEF		Packers	5.7
198.	Rams	DEF		Bears	5.7
199.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	Titans	5.7
200.	Leonard Weaver	RB	Eagles	Falcons	5.6

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs, all TDs are 6 points , each 25 yards passing are 1 point , interceptions are -2 points , fumbles lost are -2 points , each ten yards receiving are 1 point and two-point conversions are 2 points . For kickers, all extra points are 1 point and all field goals are at least 3 points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards . Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not included in overall rankings) earn 1 point for each solo tackle , 1 point for each sack , 2 points for each interception and six points for each touchdown . Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete against others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

 

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	–	85.1	33.9	19.7
2.	Indianapolis Colts	–	78.3	28.8	18.6
3.	Minnesota Vikings	–	69.6	28.2	21.9
4.	San Diego Chargers	+1	67.5	25.6	19.9
5.	New England Patriots	-1	65.7	27.3	21.6
6.	Baltimore Ravens	+7	65.6	25.1	19.5
7.	Cincinnati Bengals	–	65.3	23.6	18.9
8.	Dallas Cowboys	+3	63.7	27.4	23.0
9.	Tennessee Titans	-1	62.5	25.4	20.7
10.	San Francisco 49ers	+5	60.2	23.9	20.7
11.	Denver Broncos	+12	58.3	23.3	20.5
12.	Pittsburgh Steelers	-6	58.1	25.2	21.6
13.	Arizona Cardinals	-4	57.0	25.3	23.6
14.	New York Giants	-2	56.3	23.5	21.3
15.	Green Bay Packers	-1	54.8	25.0	23.3
16.	New York Jets	+3	53.6	21.7	20.2
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	Houston Texans	–	50.8	23.6	23.8
18.	Carolina Panthers	+3	50.3	22.1	22.2
19.	Jacksonville Jaguars	-3	49.7	23.6	23.6
20.	Philadelphia Eagles	-10	47.5	20.3	21.4
21.	Miami Dolphins	-3	43.2	21.0	22.9
22.	Atlanta Falcons	+2	40.3	20.7	23.9
23.	Seattle Seahawks	+3	37.9	20.9	24.6
24.	Buffalo Bills	+6	37.5	19.7	23.8
25.	Oakland Raiders	-5	35.9	18.5	23.5
26.	Chicago Bears	-4	32.8	18.6	24.3
27.	St. Louis Rams	-2	31.1	19.4	25.9
28.	Washington Redskins	-1	27.7	17.6	24.8
29.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+2	27.2	18.3	25.9
30.	Kansas City Chiefs	-2	24.8	16.7	25.5
31.	Detroit Lions	-2	21.8	15.9	27.2
32.	Cleveland Browns	–	19.8	15.6	27.4

 

Eric Schmoldt is a writer for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 13 NFL Picks from WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, is located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 8 Dallas 24 @ No. 14 New York Giants 22

The Dallas Cowboys could be playing for the NFC East. The New York Giants could be playing for their playoff lives. Or they could just find themselves in a bigger cluster with five weeks to go.

With two games and one team—the Philadelphia Eagles—separating the Giants and Cowboys in the NFC East standings, playoff lives and seedings are certainly in the picture this weekend at the Meadowlands, where two teams that have been on very different paths will collide for the second time this season.

The teams first met in Week Two, with the G-men winning a classic division rivalry game 33-31 thanks to a late, game-winning field goal from Lawrence Tynes.

New York’s passing attack proved to be the difference, as Eli Manning threw for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns, while Dallas’ aerial assault provided just 127 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions from Tony Romo.

Might a passing attack—perhaps the opposite one—take control again this time?

The Cowboys have put together one of the best offenses in the league, but it’s built on balance.

Romo’s first game against the Giants was almost certainly his worst, as he threw nearly half his interceptions on the season in that one game.

He should go over the 3,000-yard mark in the second meeting with the Giants, especially if the Cowboys continue to maintain an average of 8.2 yards per pass attempt.

But it’s the running game that often opens up the passing game. Dallas has a trio of running backs—Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice—who together help the Cowboys average more than five yards per carry.

But can the Cowboys stop Manning and the Giants this time around? Dallas’ defense, especially in stopping the pass, leaves a bit to be desired in terms of yards per game, but it’s taking teams a lot of passes to get to that point.

Dallas is giving up just 6.7 yards per attempt but is forcing teams into the passing game by stopping the run just as well. Opponents are averaging just 4.2 yards per carry and are averaging less than two touchdowns per game this season.

Surprisingly, despite numbers like that, the Cowboys are still minus-three in the turnover department and may need a key takeaway or two to stop Manning.

The Giants also look for a balanced offensive attack that hangs right around the top 10 in most statistical categories. Manning, battling through a foot injury, has actually been more inconsistent than his counterpart, though Romo seems to take more heat.

The Giants average 7.6 yards per pass attempt, but Manning failed to find the end zone in a game for the first time this season last Thursday in a loss to the Denver Broncos.

But it’s New York’s running game that has been the true disappointment. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were supposed to be a two-headed monster but have been scary in other reasons, as neither of them averages above 4.8 yards per carry for a ground game that averaged just 4.3 yards per touch. Now, with Bradshaw out, the Giants are relying on Danny Ware.

While the Cowboys enjoy a plus-10 margin in terms of touchdowns, the Giants actually have a deficit when it comes to finding the end zone.

Their defense had a hot start to the season but has since slowed, and fewer units have been more scrutinized than New York’s secondary, specifically its safeties.

Yet after all that, the Giants actually boast one of the NFL’s top passing offenses when it comes to yards per game, and they yield less than seven yards per pass attempt. On the ground, they might even be better as they yield just 4.2 yards per carry.

With a two-point scoring margin in the first meeting this season, it’s easy to see why we could be in for another barnburner this time around.

Vegas has set the line at one point with host New York being the favorite, but in 10,001 simulations, it’s Romo and the Cowboys who prevail 62.6 percent of the time by less than a field goal. With the total set at 45, the teams make the over better than 53 percent of the time.

In the end, it’s actually not either passing attack that makes the difference; it’s Dallas’ three-headed monster at running back taking care of New York’s less than fearsome twosome.

The Cowboys rush for just 24 more yards on average but average nearly a full yard more per carry.

While Dallas hadn’t found a consistent receiving threat at the time of the teams’ first meeting, Miles Austin has stepped up to be that guy as the Cowboys look to solidify their playoff chances.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game, or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 13
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Detroit Lions	11.6	12	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	88.4	28	Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders	24.1	15	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers	75.9	25	Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans	29.2	19	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	70.8	27	Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31.4	18	Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers	68.6	26	Simulate Game
St. Louis Rams	31.4	15	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	68.6	22	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	58.0	23	Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers	42.0	22	Simulate Game
New York Jets	58.4	20	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	41.6	18	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	58.6	22	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	41.4	21	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	62.3	28	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	37.7	26	Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys	62.6	24	Boxscore
@ New York Giants	37.4	22	Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers	65.3	22	Boxscore
@ Seattle Seahawks	34.7	19	Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles	66.5	22	Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons	33.5	19	Simulate Game
New England Patriots	72.1	25	Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins	27.9	19	Simulate Game
Denver Broncos	78.9	22	Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs	21.1	14	Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers	90.7	28	Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns	9.3	14	Simulate Game
New Orleans Saints	91.4	31	Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins	8.6	17	Simulate Game

 

 

Other Notable Games in Week 13

Speaking of playoff implications, how about an inter-conference matchup of teams clinging to wild card hopes?

That’s what we get when 6-5 Baltimore travels to 7-4 Green Bay in what looks to be the closest game of the week. The Ravens win 58 percent of the time by just one point.

In the unbeaten watch, perfect New Orleans may have the most lopsided game of the week, taking care of Washington 91.4 percent of the time by two touchdowns.

Indianapolis should remain undefeated as well, ending Tennessee’s winning streak 70.8 percent of the time by an average score of 27-19.

Other Notable Names in Week 13

Speaking of the Titans, many eyes have been on Vince Young as he’s led their turnaround. But much of that is also due to running back Chris Johnson, who ran for more than 800 yards in the month of November.

The Colts will make it hard for Johnson to start off December in the same fashion, but he averages more than 100 yards in 10,001 simulations against Indy and should find the end zone.

Brett Favre will try to keep his MVP-caliber season going as one-loss Minnesota travels to take on the Arizona Cardinals.

Favre could get to 300 yards again but averages just under 250 while throwing a pair of touchdowns and steering clear of an interception more than half of the time against the Cards.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 12 Fantasy Football Projections

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football . Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

 

 

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

 

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Patriots	24.2
2.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Lions	23.9
3.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	Texans	22.2
4.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Seahawks	20.3
5.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Saints	20.1
6.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Lions	19.8
7.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Chiefs	19.6
8.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Jets	19.5
9.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Bills	19.2
10.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	Cardinals	19.2
11.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Bears	18.9
12.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Steelers	18.9
13.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Broncos	18.9
14.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Bears	18.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Steelers	18.4
16.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Rams	18.3
17.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Redskins	18.3
18.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Buccaneers	18.0
19.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Ravens	17.4
20.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Colts	16.7
21.	Daunte Culpepper	QB	Lions	Packers	16.5
22.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Titans	16.5
23.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	49ers	16.4
24.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Jaguars	16.4
25.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Buccaneers	16.3
26.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Redskins	15.8
27.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Browns	15.8
28.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	49ers	15.5
29.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Vikings	15.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Raiders	14.8
31.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Jaguars	14.6
32.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Packers	14.2
33.	Josh Freeman	QB	Buccaneers	Falcons	14.1
34.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Titans	13.9
35.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Giants	13.8
36.	Kyle Boller	QB	Rams	Seahawks	13.7
37.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	Texans	13.6
38.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Browns	13.5
39.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Eagles	13.3
40.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Ravens	13.3
41.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Raiders	13.0
42.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Panthers	12.9
43.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	Cardinals	12.9
44.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Saints	12.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	Chargers	12.7
46.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	Bills	Dolphins	12.6
47.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Panthers	12.3
48.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	Rams	12.3
49.	Brady Quinn	QB	Browns	Bengals	12.3
50.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Saints	12.1
51.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Chargers	12.1
52.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	Texans	12.0
53.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Bears	12.0
54.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Chiefs	11.9
55.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	Dolphins	11.9
56.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Ravens	11.7
57.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Vikings	11.6
58.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Giants	11.5
59.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Jaguars	11.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Giants	11.5
61.	Bruce Gradkowski	QB	Raiders	Cowboys	11.3
62.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Jets	11.3
63.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Broncos	11.3
64.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	Texans	11.1
65.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Bills	11.1
66.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Colts	11.0
67.	Chris Chambers	WR	Chiefs	Chargers	10.9
68.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Colts	10.9
69.	Rock Cartwright	RB	Redskins	Eagles	10.8
70.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Chiefs	10.8
71.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Patriots	10.7
72.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Patriots	10.6
73.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Patriots	10.6
74.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Rams	10.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Saints	10.5
76.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Lions	10.5
77.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Browns	10.5
78.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Titans	10.4
79.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Titans	10.3
80.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	Packers	10.3
81.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Chiefs	10.3
82.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Redskins	10.2
83.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	Rams	10.2
84.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	Panthers	10.1
85.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Chiefs	10.0
86.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Broncos	9.9
87.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	49ers	9.8
88.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Buccaneers	9.8
89.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Bengals	9.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Broncos	9.7
91.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Bengals	9.5
92.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Jets	9.4
93.	Jermichael Finley	TE	Packers	Lions	9.4
94.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Dolphins	9.3
95.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Bills	9.3
96.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Raiders	9.3
97.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Steelers	9.3
98.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Lions	9.2
99.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	Cardinals	9.2
100.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Falcons	9.2
101.	John Carney	K	Saints	Patriots	9.2
102.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Ravens	9.2
103.	Bengals	DEF		Browns	9.2
104.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Bears	9.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Chris Jennings	RB	Browns	Bengals	9.0
106.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	Saints	9.0
107.	Bernard Scott	RB	Bengals	Browns	9.0
108.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Broncos	9.0
109.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Jets	8.9
110.	Mario Manningham	WR	Giants	Broncos	8.8
111.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	Texans	8.8
112.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Ravens	8.7
113.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Rams	8.7
114.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Jets	8.6
115.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Lions	8.6
116.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Buccaneers	8.6
117.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Patriots	8.5
118.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Browns	8.4
119.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Redskins	8.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Bears	8.4
121.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Giants	8.3
122.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Saints	8.3
123.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	Texans	8.3
124.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Packers	8.2
125.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Seahawks	8.2
126.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Vikings	8.2
127.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Patriots	8.1
128.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Rams	8.1
129.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Falcons	8.0
130.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Chiefs	8.0
131.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Raiders	8.0
132.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Eagles	8.0
133.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Jaguars	8.0
134.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Titans	8.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Redskins	7.9
136.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Buccaneers	7.9
137.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Dolphins	7.7
138.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Raiders	7.5
139.	Lex Hilliard	RB	Dolphins	Bills	7.5
140.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Dolphins	7.5
141.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Titans	7.5
142.	Vikings	DEF		Bears	7.5
143.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Colts	7.5
144.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Ravens	7.4
145.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Bills	7.3
146.	Darren McFadden	RB	Raiders	Cowboys	7.2
147.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Panthers	7.1
148.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Vikings	7.1
149.	Chester Taylor	RB	Vikings	Bears	7.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Vikings	7.1
151.	Billy Cundiff	K	Ravens	Steelers	7.0
152.	Chargers	DEF		Chiefs	7.0
153.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Giants	6.9
154.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	Cowboys	6.8
155.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Cowboys	6.8
156.	Dolphins	DEF		Bills	6.8
157.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Vikings	6.8
158.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	Chargers	6.8
159.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Broncos	6.7
160.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	Seahawks	6.7
161.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Buccaneers	6.7
162.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	49ers	6.7
163.	Brandon Gibson	WR	Rams	Seahawks	6.7
164.	Connor Barth	K	Buccaneers	Falcons	6.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	Falcons	6.6
166.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	Panthers	6.6
167.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	Cardinals	6.6
168.	David Thomas	TE	Saints	Patriots	6.5
169.	Kevin Boss	TE	Giants	Broncos	6.5
170.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	49ers	6.4
171.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	Eagles	6.3
172.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	Texans	6.2
173.	Eagles	DEF		Redskins	6.2
174.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	Cowboys	6.1
175.	Panthers	DEF		Jets	6.1
176.	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	Vikings	Bears	6.0
177.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Raiders	6.0
178.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Redskins	6.0
179.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Jaguars	6.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Brandon Jackson	RB	Packers	Lions	6.0
181.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	Giants	5.9
182.	Falcons	DEF		Buccaneers	5.9
183.	Cowboys	DEF		Raiders	5.9
184.	Jaguars	DEF		49ers	5.8
185.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Cowboys	5.8
186.	Ravens	DEF		Steelers	5.8
187.	Laveranues Coles	WR	Bengals	Browns	5.8
188.	Titans	DEF		Cardinals	5.7
189.	Earnest Graham	RB	Buccaneers	Falcons	5.7
190.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	Raiders	5.7
191.	Steelers	DEF		Ravens	5.6
192.	Leonard Weaver	RB	Eagles	Redskins	5.6
193.	Colts	DEF		Texans	5.5
194.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	Dolphins	5.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	Browns	5.5
196.	Brian Leonard	RB	Bengals	Browns	5.5
197.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Steelers	5.4
198.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	Packers	5.4
199.	Quinton Ganther	RB	Redskins	Eagles	5.4
200.	Lance Long	WR	Chiefs	Chargers	5.4

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TE, all TDs are 6 points , each 25 yards passing are 1 point , interceptions are -2 points , fumbles lost are -2 points , each 10 yards receiving are 1 point, and two-point conversions are 2 points . For kickers, all extra points are 1 point and all field goals are at least 3 points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards . Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not inlcuded in overall rankings) earn 1 point for each solo tackle , 1 point for each sack , 2 points for each interception and 6 points for each touchdown . Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete gainst others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 12 NFL Power Rankings: Chargers Move into Top Five

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, using the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team.

All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	87.1	33.6	19.2
2.	Indianapolis Colts	84.9	29.4	16.4
3.	Minnesota Vikings	77.4	28.6	19.2
4.	New England Patriots	69.8	27.7	20.2
5.	San Diego Chargers	64.0	25.5	20.1
6.	Cincinnati Bengals	59.7	23.6	20.2
7.	Pittsburgh Steelers	60.1	25.8	22.6
8.	Tennessee Titans	59.7	23.2	20.0
9.	Arizona Cardinals	58.1	24.8	21.8
10.	Philadelphia Eagles	57.9	24.9	22.3
11.	Dallas Cowboys	56.8	24.4	22.7
12.	Houston Texans	50.5	24.0	24.0
13.	Baltimore Ravens	55.0	24.0	21.8
14.	Green Bay Packers	53.5	26.3	25.2
15.	San Francisco 49ers	53.0	22.2	21.9
16.	Jacksonville Jaguars	51.0	23.1	22.0
	Team	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	New York Giants	56.5	25.9	24.1
18.	Miami Dolphins	47.7	22.1	22.9
19.	New York Jets	43.1	21.5	24.0
20.	Oakland Raiders	42.6	20.5	23.7
21.	Carolina Panthers	41.7	22.0	24.9
22.	Chicago Bears	40.4	20.1	23.4
23.	Denver Broncos	38.2	19.9	24.1
24.	Atlanta Falcons	38.1	20.3	24.2
25.	St. Louis Rams	37.3	21.9	26.7
26.	Seattle Seahawks	37.2	20.5	25.2
27.	Washington Redskins	36.2	19.2	24.3
28.	Kansas City Chiefs	36.0	18.9	23.5
29.	Detroit Lions	31.7	20.7	27.3
30.	Buffalo Bills	31.6	19.2	24.6
31.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	22.6	18.2	28.1
32.	Cleveland Browns	20.5	17.6	29.0

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 12 NFL Picks from WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Last week, our picks were 92.3 percent accurate against the spread to keep us above 60 percent ATS—with a 73 percent success rate on our “lock of the week”—and just under 70 percent (69.4 percent) straight-up for the season. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 4 New England 24 @ No. 1 New Orleans 33
Another week, another huge quarterback battle.

Two weeks after Bill Belichick made the call of the year to help Peyton Manning and the Colts beat Tom Brady and the Patriots to help Indianapolis remain undefeated, the Patriots find themselves in a nearly identical situation.

This time, Brady and the Pats get their shot against Drew Brees and the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

New England, 7-3, rebounded from the debacle against the Colts with a 17-point victory over the New York Jets on Sunday. The Patriots have won four of their last five games and their schedule will only get easier from here on out.

With Brady back at the helm after missing all but a few minutes of last season, they boast one of the top offenses in the league in both passing and scoring. New England’s signal-caller has thrown 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions and is averaging an impressive 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

Brady is one of five quarterbacks in the league to have a rating of 100 or higher for the season. New England’s rushing attack has left something to be desired. No running back has eclipsed the 500-yard mark 10 games into the season and No. 1 back Laurence Maroney is averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. The team itself is averaging exactly 4.0, but that hasn’t hindered a highly productive offense from averaging 5.9 yards per offensive play.

The Patriots’ defense seems to mirror its offense, stopping the pass at one of the highest rates in the NFL but struggling more against the run. That fact should come into play this week as the Saints bring a varied and dangerous offense. New England has allowed less than 2,000 passing yards all season and opponents are averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt against them. Against the run, however, the Patriots are allowing nearly 4.5 yards per touch.

Brees is one of just a few quarterbacks to have outplayed Brady to this point. New Orleans boasts the top offense in the league and it bounced back from a close call against St. Louis by thrashing Tampa Bay on Sunday. This week’s game is the Saints’ toughest hurdle standing between them and a perfect regular season.

The Saints have more offensive weapons than any other team in the league this season. With Brees at the helm, they don’t have quite as many passing yards as Brady and the Pats, but they aren’t far behind and they’re actually averaging more yards per attempt, at 8.6.

And whereas New England has zero backs with 500 yards at this point, New Orleans has two and a third dynamic playmaker who averages 5.0 yards per carry. Mike Bell has seen the most carries, but is averaging the lowest yardage of the bunch at 4.5 yards per carry. Pierre Thomas also has more than 500 yards and averages an impressive 5.6 yards per touch. Reggie Bush, who wasn’t able to play last week due to injury, is the third of the three-headed monster. Together, the rushing attack averages 4.8 yards per carry for an offense that averages an impressive 6.4 yards per snap.

Defensively, the Saints’ numbers are nearly identical to those of the Patriots. New Orleans is allowing just 6.2 yards per pass attempt, but will see one of its toughest challenges of the season this week. The Saints will likely have the most success if they try to keep Brady and the Pats one-dimensional, and they could do that by continuing to stifle the New England’s run-game. But they haven’t exactly been dominant against the run, giving up 4.6 yards per carry.

But let’s be honest. For the second time in three weeks, all eyes will be on Brady in another quarterback battle. And for the second time in that span, Brady loses out. And this time, a fourth-quarter, fourth-down call won’t likely factor into the outcome.

In 10,001 simulations (view predicted boxscore ), Brees and the Saints take care of Brady and the Pats 69.9 percent of the time of an average final score of 33-24. With New Orleans giving three points, they cover the spread 66.8 percent of the time. The total, at 55.5, is a much weaker play as the teams make the over at a 52.9 percent clip.

The Saints’ rushing attack seems to make the difference as two different backs each average a touchdown in 50 percent of the simulations. Brees also tops Brady in both yardage and touchdowns.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 12
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Kansas City Chiefs	13.8	14	Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers	86.2	29	Simulate Game
Chicago Bears	14.0	16	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Vikings	86.0	30	Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns	14.5	13	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	85.5	27	Simulate Game
Washington Redskins	26.5	17	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	73.5	26	Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders	27.7	15	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	72.3	25	Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	28.1	18	Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons	71.9	28	Simulate Game
New England Patriots	30.1	24	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	69.9	33	Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars	44.5	18	Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers	55.5	22	Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals	46.3	21	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	53.7	24	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	47.4	22	Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams	52.6	25	Simulate Game
Pittsburgh Steelers	48.4	21	Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens	51.6	24	Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers	58.8	23	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	41.2	22	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	64.8	23	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	35.2	20	Simulate Game
New York Giants	69.1	27	Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos	30.9	23	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	69.4	29	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	30.6	24	Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts	75.0	27	Boxscore
@ Houston Texans	25.0	20	Simulate Game

 

Other Notable Games in Week 12

Broncos-Giants

In a battle of teams fighting to keep their status as playoff contenders, the New York Giants—fresh off finally winning again—travel to face the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are hoping to follow the Giants’ lead by ending a month-long skid. The Giants win back-to-back games 69.1 percent of the time, but by less than a touchdown, making the Broncos plus-6.5 look pretty good at 59 percent.

Baltimore and injury-riddled Pittsburgh square off in a game that could end up playing a huge role in sorting out the playoff picture as well. The two teams will have to meet again in a few weeks, but could have the closest game this week as the host Ravens win just 51.6 percent of the time by just a field goal.

Other Notes from Week 12

Brady Quinn finally had the monster game that Browns fans have been waiting for since he was drafted. Then again, it did come against the Lions and somehow Cleveland still found a way to lose. The former Notre Dame quarterback likely returns to his struggling ways against the Cincinnati Bengals as he averages less than 200 yards per game over 10,000 simulations an likely matches his touchdown passes with picks.

Miami running back Ricky Williams couldn’t have been bigger while stepping up in relief of the injured Ronnie Brown. Williams put the Dolphins on his back, scoring twice on the ground and once through the air to single-handedly beat Carolina. Expect another big game from him as he averages well over 100 yards and scores a touchdown.

 

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

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