Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic, and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams.

We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Most Notable Move

There was a point where the Tennessee Titans ranked amongst the worst three teams in the entire league. But after two consecutive victories with Vince Young at the helm, they’re back in the top half of the league in the latest power rankings.

Tennessee dropped to No. 30 in the rankings after a 59-0 drubbing at the hands of New England dropped the Titans to an 0-6 mark. After losing three games by 13 total points to start the season, the Titans fell in their next three by 101.

After a bye week, coach Jeff Fisher and the Titans turned back to Young, their one-time starting quarterback who fell out of favor last season and suffered through issues both on and off the field. The former college star doesn’t have any jaw-dropping numbers since his return, completing 27 of 37 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown, but the record of 2-0 speaks for itself.

Young has received plenty of help from running back Chris Johnson in the two-game stretch. Johnson has 49 carries for 363 yards and four touchdowns in victories over Jacksonville and San Francisco.

The latter helps them jump eight more spots this week up to No. 15 in the NFL. The Titans, just three weeks after being considered the third-worst team in football, now win 53.4 percent of their games when squaring off 100 times against every other NFL team.

They could move up more before they move down. The Titans host the hapless Buffalo Bills this season before what could be a good matchup with Houston, allowing Tennessee the chance to prove that it at least belongs in the middle of the pack.

Biggest Gains

The Titans officially make the biggest leap in this week’s rankings, but the Arizona Cardinals were a close second, jumping to the head of the NFC West race and back into the top 12 with a victory over the Chicago Bears, as Kurt Warner threw five touchdown passes.

Arizona goes from a middle-of-the-run team back to the playoff picture, jumping seven spots to No. 11.

San Diego , which got a victory on the road against the New York Giants, jumps five spots and is back in the top 10.

Biggest Losses

The Green Bay Packers added insult to insult. One week after losing to former star quarterback Brett Favre, Green Bay faltered against then-winless Tampa Bay, falling to the Creamsicle-colored crew and dropping behind Minnesota by three games midway through the season.

The Packers drop nine spots and out of the top half of the league to No. 19 overall. They are now beating less than 50 percent of all other NFL teams.

San Francisco and Chicago , each reeling in their own way, drop five more spots.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (Everyone Plays Everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	–	81.3	30.8	18.5
2.	Indianapolis Colts	–	79.2	28.7	18.3
3.	Pittsburgh Steelers	–	78.2	29.1	18.1
4.	New England Patriots	+2	73.5	27.0	17.2
5.	Minnesota Vikings	-1	71.2	26.0	18.2
6.	Dallas Cowboys	-1	69.0	27.0	19.5
7.	Cincinnati Bengals	+2	67.7	23.7	17.5
8.	Philadelphia Eagles	–	61.8	24.7	20.9
9.	San Diego Chargers	+5	57.9	23.6	20.8
10.	Denver Broncos	-3	57.1	20.3	18.3
11.	Arizona Cardinals	+7	55.2	22.8	21.6
12.	Baltimore Ravens	–	54.7	22.2	20.7
13.	Atlanta Falcons	+3	54.1	22.3	20.8
14.	Houston Texans	+3	53.9	22.8	21.1
15.	Tennessee Titans	+8	53.4	22.9	20.9
16.	San Francisco 49ers	-5	52.2	22.3	21.3
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	New York Jets	-4	52.1	22.2	22.2
18.	Miami Dolphins	-3	51.2	22.3	21.7
19.	Green Bay Packers	-9	49.0	23.4	24.3
20.	Carolina Panthers	-1	48.6	23.0	23.1
21.	New York Giants	–	48.0	23.4	24.1
22.	Jacksonville Jaguars	–	46.3	23.7	25.1
23.	Buffalo Bills	+3	39.7	19.5	23.5
24.	Seattle Seahawks	–	39.2	20.5	24.2
25.	Chicago Bears	-5	34.4	19.5	24.7
26.	St. Louis Rams	-1	31.6	19.2	25.8
27.	Oakland Raiders	–	28.2	16.6	24.5
28.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+4	26.6	18.9	27.6
29.	Kansas City Chiefs	-1	24.5	17.8	28.4
30.	Detroit Lions	+1	22.6	17.6	28.7
31.	Washington Redskins	-1	20.0	17.2	28.5
32.	Cleveland Browns	-3	17.7	13.3	29.0

 

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 9 Fantasy Football Projections From WhatIfSports.com

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football . Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

 

 

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Buccaneers	23.7
2.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Panthers	23.6
3.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	Texans	22.9
4.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Cowboys	21.3
5.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Dolphins	20.1
6.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Buccaneers	19.7
7.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Giants	17.7
8.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Bengals	17.6
9.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Bengals	17.4
10.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Eagles	17.2
11.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Broncos	17.1
12.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Lions	17.1
13.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Colts	17.1
14.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	Chiefs	17.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Titans	16.9
16.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	49ers	16.9
17.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Panthers	16.7
18.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	Redskins	16.5
19.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Cardinals	15.8
20.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Bears	15.7
21.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Saints	15.7
22.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Redskins	15.2
23.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Ravens	15.0
24.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Jaguars	15.0
25.	Ronnie Brown	RB	Dolphins	Patriots	14.9
26.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Cardinals	14.7
27.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	Texans	14.7
28.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Ravens	14.7
29.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Titans	14.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	Chiefs	14.5
31.	Ryan Moats	RB	Texans	Colts	14.4
32.	Brian Westbrook	RB	Eagles	Cowboys	14.3
33.	Clinton Portis	RB	Redskins	Falcons	13.9
34.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	Lions	13.7
35.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Eagles	13.6
36.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Patriots	13.4
37.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Broncos	13.2
38.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Ravens	13.2
39.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	Texans	13.2
40.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Steelers	13.0
41.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Dolphins	12.9
42.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	49ers	12.9
43.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Bears	12.7
44.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Panthers	12.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Chargers	12.3
46.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Giants	12.2
47.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Eagles	12.0
48.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Colts	11.7
49.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Chargers	11.4
50.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Dolphins	11.4
51.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Buccaneers	11.3
52.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Cowboys	11.3
53.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Steelers	11.1
54.	Kolby Smith	RB	Chiefs	Jaguars	10.6
55.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	Texans	10.6
56.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Buccaneers	10.4
57.	Josh Freeman	QB	Buccaneers	Packers	10.3
58.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Panthers	10.3
59.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Falcons	10.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Bears	10.2
61.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Lions	10.2
62.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Chargers	10.2
63.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Redskins	10.1
64.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Cardinals	10.1
65.	Matthew Stafford	QB	Lions	Seahawks	10.0
66.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Cowboys	9.8
67.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Saints	9.7
68.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Cowboys	9.5
69.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Broncos	9.4
70.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Seahawks	9.4
71.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	Jaguars	9.4
72.	Sammy Morris	RB	Patriots	Dolphins	9.4
73.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Eagles	9.4
74.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Broncos	9.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Patriots	9.3
76.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Colts	9.3
77.	John Carney	K	Saints	Panthers	9.2
78.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Giants	9.2
79.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Giants	9.2
80.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	Packers	9.2
81.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Giants	9.1
82.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Cardinals	9.1
83.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Bears	9.0
84.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Saints	8.9
85.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Packers	8.9
86.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Ravens	8.9
87.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Redskins	8.8
88.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	Texans	8.6
89.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Buccaneers	8.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Colts	8.5
91.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Lions	8.5
92.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Dolphins	8.5
93.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Dolphins	8.5
94.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Patriots	8.4
95.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Saints	8.3
96.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	Texans	8.3
97.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Bears	8.2
98.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Cowboys	8.2
99.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Redskins	8.1
100.	Maurice Morris	RB	Lions	Seahawks	8.1
101.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Bengals	8.0
102.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Eagles	7.9
103.	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Chiefs	Jaguars	7.8
104.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Cowboys	7.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Redskins	7.6
106.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Steelers	7.6
107.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Falcons	7.5
108.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Saints	7.4
109.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Lions	7.4
110.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Seahawks	7.4
111.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Chargers	7.4
112.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Panthers	7.4
113.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Panthers	7.3
114.	Bears	DEF		Cardinals	7.3
115.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Eagles	7.3
116.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	Seahawks	7.2
117.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	Bengals	7.2
118.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	Lions	7.2
119.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Broncos	7.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Packers	DEF		Buccaneers	7.1
121.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	Chiefs	7.1
122.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Titans	7.1
123.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Titans	7.0
124.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Steelers	6.9
125.	Seahawks	DEF		Lions	6.8
126.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Bengals	6.8
127.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Titans	6.8
128.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Bears	6.8
129.	Johnny Knox	WR	Bears	Cardinals	6.7
130.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	49ers	6.6
131.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Chargers	6.6
132.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Giants	6.5
133.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Broncos	6.5
134.	Chargers	DEF		Giants	6.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Saints	DEF		Panthers	6.3
136.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Panthers	6.3
137.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Giants	6.3
138.	Falcons	DEF		Redskins	6.3
139.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	Chiefs	6.2
140.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	Dolphins	6.2
141.	Austin Collie	WR	Colts	Texans	6.2
142.	Mike Thomas	WR	Jaguars	Chiefs	6.1
143.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	Jaguars	6.1
144.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	Falcons	6.1
145.	Cardinals	DEF		Bears	6.1
146.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	Colts	6.0
147.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	Ravens	6.0
148.	Chad Simpson	RB	Colts	Texans	6.0
149.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	49ers	6.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Steelers	DEF		Broncos	5.8
151.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Patriots	5.7
152.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Steelers	5.7
153.	Broncos	DEF		Steelers	5.6
154.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Chargers	5.6
155.	Patrick Crayton	WR	Cowboys	Eagles	5.6
156.	Jaguars	DEF		Chiefs	5.6
157.	Lions	DEF		Seahawks	5.6
158.	Edgerrin James	RB	Seahawks	Lions	5.5
159.	Patriots	DEF		Dolphins	5.5
160.	Antonio Bryant	WR	Buccaneers	Packers	5.3
161.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	Seahawks	5.3
162.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	Chiefs	5.2
163.	Bengals	DEF		Ravens	5.2
164.	Donald Lee	TE	Packers	Buccaneers	5.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	Eagles	5.1
166.	49ers	DEF		Titans	5.1
167.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Packers	5.1
168.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Cardinals	5.1
169.	Jabar Gaffney	WR	Broncos	Steelers	5.0
170.	Josh Morgan	WR	49ers	Titans	4.9
171.	Giants	DEF		Chargers	4.9
172.	Titans	DEF		49ers	4.9
173.	Kelley Washington	WR	Ravens	Bengals	4.8
174.	Mewelde Moore	RB	Steelers	Broncos	4.8
175.	Chris Henry	WR	Bengals	Ravens	4.8
176.	Lance Long	WR	Chiefs	Jaguars	4.8
177.	Colts	DEF		Texans	4.8
178.	Todd Heap	TE	Ravens	Bengals	4.7
179.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	Eagles	4.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Fred Davis	TE	Redskins	Falcons	4.7
181.	Isaac Bruce	WR	49ers	Titans	4.6
182.	Ravens	DEF		Bengals	4.6
183.	Mike Wallace	WR	Steelers	Broncos	4.6
184.	Kevin Boss	TE	Giants	Chargers	4.6
185.	Sammie Stroughter	WR	Buccaneers	Packers	4.6
186.	Bo Scaife	TE	Titans	49ers	4.4
187.	Shane Andrus	K	Buccaneers	Packers	4.4
188.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Cardinals	4.2
189.	Bobby Wade	WR	Chiefs	Jaguars	4.2
190.	Le’Ron McClain	RB	Ravens	Bengals	4.1
191.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	Steelers	4.1
192.	LenDale White	RB	Titans	49ers	4.0
193.	Eagles	DEF		Cowboys	4.0
194.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Redskins	4.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Redskins	DEF		Falcons	4.0
196.	Dolphins	DEF		Patriots	4.0
197.	Mark Bradley	WR	Chiefs	Jaguars	4.0
198.	Antwaan Randle El	WR	Redskins	Falcons	3.9
199.	Nate Washington	WR	Titans	49ers	3.9
200.	Chiefs	DEF		Jaguars	3.9

 

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TE, all TDs are 6 points , each 25 yards passing are 1 point , interceptions are -2 points , fumbles lost are -2 points , each ten yards receiving are 1 point and two-point conversions are 2 points . For kickers, all extra points are 1 point and all field goals are at least 3 points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards . Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not inlcuded in overall rankings) earn 1 point for each solo tackle , 1 point for each sack , 2 points for each interception and six points for each touchdown . Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete gainst others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Power Rankings: Week 9

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

 

Most Notable Move:

The Dallas Cowboys have fought their way back from pretender to contender. The next two weeks will play a huge role in deciding if they remain in that category.

Four weeks ago “America’s Team” was 2-2, coming off a loss at Denver and many had already started writing the Cowboys off. Four weeks and three consecutive victories later and Dallas is back amongst the top five teams in the NFL, moving up four more spots this week to No. 5 in our Power Rankings.

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo threw for 256 more yards in a 38-17 victory over Seattle on Sunday and has now thrown for more than 900 yards over his past three games. The Cowboys offense now ranks in the top seven in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense and passing offense per game. They are averaging an eye-opening 6.6 yards per offensive play.

But a surge from the Cowboys’ defense might be necessary to help them keep their contender status. They rank outside the top 20 in yards and passing yards allowed per game, though much of that has to do with the fact that opposing offenses are getting more snaps. Dallas is allowing 5.3 yards per play.

A two-game road stretch will now decide if the Cowboys will remain a top five team. They’ll travel to No. 8 Philadelphia this week, a matchup that is nearly a coin flip after 10,000 simulations. And next week, they go to No. 10 Green Bay, which will also be fighting for a playoff spot.

As for right now, though, consider them a top contender as they continue moving up and now beat opposing NFL teams more than 71 percent of the time in 100 simulations against every other team in the league.

 

Biggest Gain:

It’s no shock that the biggest gain comes from the biggest surprise of Week Eight. The fact that the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Giants wasn’t the stunner, but the 40-17 trouncing that Philadelphia laid on New York certainly opened some eyes. And if computers had eyes, they would probably be open, too. Philly moves from middle-of-the-pack back to contender, jumping eight spots this week to No. 8.

Carolina, which beat Arizona on the road, moves up five spots. And Minnesota , leaps two more spots and is now a top-four team.

 

Biggest Loss:

Just as the Arizona Cardinals started to look legitimate themselves, they negated nearly all of their progress with a demoralizing 34-21 loss at home to the Panthers on Sunday. A Super Bowl team a year ago, the Cards would be in line to make another run if they could just win at home. They had won three consecutive games, all of them on the road, before last week, but lost again at home, falling to 0-3 there and dropping 11 spots in the power rankings to No. 18.

Four teams tie for the second biggest loss, just four spots—including previously undefeated Denver which drops to No. 7 and the hapless Detroit Lions, who once again are the second-worst team in the league.

 

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	–	88.9	36.3	18.4
2.	Indianapolis Colts	–	76.5	27.0	17.6
3.	Pittsburgh Steelers	+1	75.9	28.2	18.4
4.	Minnesota Vikings	+2	75.7	27.2	18.2
5.	Dallas Cowboys	+4	71.4	28.6	20.8
6.	New England Patriots	-1	69.0	26.6	19.5
7.	Denver Broncos	-4	67.6	21.3	15.3
8.	Philadelphia Eagles	+8	66.5	27.0	21.4
9.	Cincinnati Bengals	+1	66.0	24.7	18.7
10.	Green Bay Packers	-2	61.3	24.4	20.3
11.	San Francisco 49ers	+3	61.3	23.3	19.2
12.	Baltimore Ravens	–	60.7	24.1	19.9
13.	New York Jets	+2	59.9	24.8	20.0
14.	San Diego Chargers	-3	55.6	23.7	21.9
15.	Miami Dolphins	+2	54.5	21.7	19.9
16.	Atlanta Falcons	+3	53.4	22.0	21.0
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	Houston Texans	-4	53.2	23.6	22.8
18.	Arizona Cardinals	-11	48.5	20.9	21.6
19.	Carolina Panthers	+5	47.5	22.7	23.3
20.	Chicago Bears	+1	45.9	21.3	22.3
21.	New York Giants	-3	41.1	20.1	23.0
22.	Jacksonville Jaguars	-2	40.3	21.7	24.7
23.	Tennessee Titans	+2	35.6	20.0	24.3
24.	Seattle Seahawks	-1	34.8	19.0	24.3
25.	St. Louis Rams	+1	29.8	19.1	26.4
26.	Buffalo Bills	-4	29.3	17.1	25.1
27.	Oakland Raiders	+2	29.0	16.9	25.4
28.	Kansas City Chiefs	+3	23.4	16.9	27.6
29.	Cleveland Browns	-1	21.2	16.5	27.7
30.	Washington Redskins	–	20.1	14.9	26.6
31.	Detroit Lions	-4	19.8	16.6	29.1
32.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	–	16.6	16.5	30.0

 

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Week Nine Picks from WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 12 Baltimore Ravens 20 at No. 9 Cincinnati Bengals 23
With three teams all within one game of the lead, only one other division in the NFL— the NFC East—i s as close going into Week Nine as the AFC North. Will the AFC North’s top three teams go into Week 10 in the middle of the same battle? Or will we see some separation?

It all comes down to Sunday’s matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals.

If the visiting Ravens win their second big game in a row, they’ll find themselves in either a tie for first or second— depending on how Pittsburgh’s game turns out. If the Bengals continue their successful season with another victory, they could take the outright lead in the North and put the Ravens two games out and in quite the predicament as the NFL nears its stretch run.

Cincinnati put itself in this position by taking down Baltimore four weeks ago with one of the Bengals’ many late fourth-quarter rallies. Another close, heated battle on Sunday would be no surprise.

The Ravens snapped their three-game losing streak in dominating fashion against the Broncos last week, using the extra preparation of a bye week to hand Denver its first loss of the season, 30-7.

Baltimore is 4-3, but still has the league’s fourth-best scoring offense at more than 28 points per game while playing against the fourth-toughest schedule to-date.

Led by Ray Rice, who ranks fifth among all running backs with at least 65 carries at 5.5 yards per rush, the Ravens are averaging 4.6 yards per carry as a team. And quarterback Joe Flacco is throwing for more than seven yards per attempt, a number that has helped Baltimore convert nearly 50 percent of its third down opportunities.

The Ravens defense isn’t quite as stout as it has been in recent years and is giving up 5.3 yards per play. But Cincinnati will have to work hard to have another successful ground game against Ray Lewis and Baltimore, which is giving up just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Bengals are also coming off of their most impressive victory of the season. They had a bye last week, but decimated the Chicago Bears 45-10 one week earlier and are now 5-2 despite having played the third-hardest schedule in the NFL.

Cedric Benson and the Bengals are only rushing for 4.4 yards per carry, but their most recent meeting with Baltimore was one of the most successful for any back against the Ravens in recent memory. Quarterback Carson Palmer hasn’t exactly been lights-out— averaging 7.1 yards per attempt— but has rebounded with a solid season and has been a key cog in clutch situations.

Cincinnati will also bring a stout rushing defense into this week as opponents are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry against the Bengals. Similarly, the Bengals struggle a little bit more against the pass, and this game could come down to how effective each teams’ secondary is at shutting down Flacco or Palmer.

According to 10,001 simulations (View Predicted Boxscore) , Cincinnati may need another dramatic fourth quarter, but the Bengals create a slight amount of separation in the AFC North by topping the Ravens for the second time this season. They win 55.2 percent of the time, by an average score of 23-20.

Cincinnati is actually getting three points in Vegas, making a Bengals upset one of the strongest plays of the week (the Bengals cover 69.9 percent). The total, at 43.5, is much weaker and is virtually a tossup.

It looks like the Bengals’ offensive playmakers give them the edge.

The Ravens average more rushing yards and more passing yards, but in more than half of the simulations, Benson comes close to rushing for 100 yards again, and scores a touchdown. So does wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, who could get to the 100-yard mark as well. In a tight game, the kicking game could almost certainly play a factor as well, and Shayne Graham averages nearly two field goals per game, while Ravens’ kicker Steven Hauschka averages 1.5.

Cincinnati’s offense needed a dominating performance to beat Baltimore by three the first time. It may not gain that offensive advantage again this time, but the result looks like more of the same.

Our Against the Spread “Lock of the Week” is 6-2 on the year and 22-5 all-time. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here. Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week Nine
Matchup	Win Percentage	Avg Score
Carolina Panthers	13.5	18	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	86.5	34	Simulate Game
Washington Redskins	20.1	14	Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons	79.9	26	Simulate Game
Detroit Lions	24.5	14	Boxscore
@ Seattle Seahawks	75.5	25	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	32.0	21	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	68.0	29	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	34.4	19	Boxscore
@ New England Patriots	65.6	27	Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans	34.9	17	Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers	65.1	23	Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs	37.1	18	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	62.9	24	Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals	41.7	19	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	58.3	23	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	44.8	20	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	55.2	23	Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys	48.4	26	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	51.6	28	Simulate Game
Pittsburgh Steelers	64.1	21	Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos	35.9	18	Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers	67.5	21	Boxscore
@ New York Giants	32.5	18	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	85.0	28	Boxscore
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15.0	16	Simulate Game

 

Other Notable Games in Week Nine

As other divisions look to create more separation, the AFC West race may just get a little bit murkier. The New York Giants continue their freefall, losing their fourth game in a row 67.5 percent of the time as they host the San Diego Chargers this weekend. With a win San Diego could move within one game of the Denver Broncos, who drop their second consecutive game 64.1 percent of the time while hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The closest game of the week looks like it will take place in Philadelphia as the Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys. Philly has won two games in a row and Dallas has won three, but something will have to give in a game that is nearly a coin flip. The winner will take the outright lead in the NFC East and the Eagles do just that 51.6 percent of the time and by an avereage score of 28-26.

Other Notable Names in Week Nine

The changeup in Tennessee seemed to spark the Titans as Vince Young took over at quarterback and they went on to stomp on Jacksonville 30-13. Young’s numbers certainly didn’t jump off the page, but it was Tennessee’s first victory of the season.

The Titans should get a stiffer test this week as they travel across the country to face the 49ers. San Francisco wins 65.1 percent of the time and by a score of 23-17 as Young averages about 152 passing yards and nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns. Tennessee running back Chris Johnson, last week’s leading rusher, should get to triple digit rushing yards again.

Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning and New Orleans signal caller Drew Brees led the league in passing yards last week. Not coincidentally, the Colts and Saints are now the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten teams. Brees and the Saints remain unbeaten 86.5 percent of the time while hosting Carolina, and Brees could very well eclipse 300 passing yards for the fifth time this year. Manning has a slightly lower chance to get to 300, but his team should remain undefeated as well, beating visiting Houston 68 percent of the time.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Eight Fantasy Football Projections

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football . Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

 

 

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Raiders	22.1
2.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Vikings	20.8
3.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Panthers	20.5
4.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	49ers	20.4
5.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Falcons	20.1
6.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Bills	18.1
7.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Lions	18.0
8.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	Titans	17.7
9.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Browns	17.5
10.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	Titans	17.5
11.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Seahawks	17.3
12.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Packers	16.8
13.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	Jaguars	16.1
14.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Vikings	15.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Packers	15.4
16.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Giants	15.4
17.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Ravens	15.3
18.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Cowboys	15.1
19.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Broncos	14.8
20.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Browns	14.4
21.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	Jaguars	14.4
22.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Giants	13.8
23.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Bills	13.7
24.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Rams	13.6
25.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Seahawks	13.4
26.	Marc Bulger	QB	Rams	Lions	13.3
27.	Ronnie Brown	RB	Dolphins	Jets	13.0
28.	Daunte Culpepper	QB	Lions	Rams	12.8
29.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Colts	12.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Eagles	12.8
31.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Broncos	12.7
32.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Raiders	12.7
33.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Saints	12.7
34.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Colts	12.5
35.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Dolphins	12.4
36.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Dolphins	12.2
37.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Cardinals	12.1
38.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Panthers	12.1
39.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Packers	12.0
40.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	49ers	12.0
41.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Seahawks	11.7
42.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Raiders	11.4
43.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	Bills	Texans	11.4
44.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Falcons	11.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Vikings	11.4
46.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Jets	11.3
47.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Seahawks	11.3
48.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Panthers	11.3
49.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Raiders	11.2
50.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Eagles	11.2
51.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Ravens	11.1
52.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Raiders	11.1
53.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	49ers	10.9
54.	Shonn Greene	RB	Jets	Dolphins	10.6
55.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Bills	10.5
56.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Giants	10.3
57.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Vikings	10.2
58.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	Chargers	10.0
59.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Jets	10.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Texans	9.9
61.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	Saints	9.9
62.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Raiders	9.8
63.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Eagles	9.7
64.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Ravens	9.6
65.	Owen Daniels	TE	Texans	Bills	9.5
66.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Cardinals	9.4
67.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Browns	9.4
68.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Panthers	9.3
69.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Cardinals	9.3
70.	John Carney	K	Saints	Falcons	9.3
71.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	Titans	9.2
72.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Falcons	9.1
73.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	Cowboys	9.1
74.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Colts	9.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Panthers	9.0
76.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Falcons	9.0
77.	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Raiders	Chargers	8.9
78.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Eagles	8.9
79.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Seahawks	8.9
80.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	Texans	8.9
81.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Bears	8.8
82.	Derek Anderson	QB	Browns	Bears	8.7
83.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	Cowboys	8.7
84.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	49ers	8.6
85.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Chargers	8.5
86.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Giants	8.4
87.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Browns	8.3
88.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Falcons	8.3
89.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	49ers	8.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	Titans	8.2
91.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Ravens	8.2
92.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Cowboys	8.1
93.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Cowboys	8.1
94.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	Titans	8.1
95.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	Jaguars	8.1
96.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Packers	7.9
97.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Falcons	7.9
98.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Eagles	7.8
99.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Panthers	7.8
100.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Rams	7.8
101.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Ravens	7.7
102.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	Jaguars	7.7
103.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Bills	7.7
104.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Lions	7.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Vikings	7.7
106.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Cardinals	7.6
107.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Saints	7.6
108.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Panthers	7.4
109.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	Dolphins	7.4
110.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Seahawks	7.4
111.	Chargers	DEF		Raiders	7.4
112.	Cardinals	DEF		Panthers	7.3
113.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Colts	7.3
114.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Eagles	7.3
115.	Mario Manningham	WR	Giants	Eagles	7.2
116.	Broncos	DEF		Ravens	7.1
117.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Jets	7.1
118.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Falcons	7.0
119.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Browns	7.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	49ers	7.0
121.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Dolphins	6.9
122.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	Broncos	6.9
123.	LenDale White	RB	Titans	Jaguars	6.9
124.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Saints	6.9
125.	David Clowney	WR	Jets	Dolphins	6.8
126.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Chargers	6.8
127.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Giants	6.8
128.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Saints	6.7
129.	Browns	DEF		Bears	6.7
130.	Bills	DEF		Texans	6.7
131.	Nate Washington	WR	Titans	Jaguars	6.6
132.	Louis Murphy	WR	Raiders	Chargers	6.6
133.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	Lions	6.6
134.	Bears	DEF		Browns	6.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Saints	6.5
136.	Eagles	DEF		Giants	6.4
137.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Texans	6.4
138.	Cowboys	DEF		Seahawks	6.4
139.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Broncos	6.3
140.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	Cowboys	6.3
141.	Saints	DEF		Falcons	6.3
142.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Cowboys	6.3
143.	Donald Lee	TE	Packers	Vikings	6.2
144.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Bears	6.2
145.	Billy Cundiff	K	Browns	Bears	6.2
146.	Jerome Harrison	RB	Browns	Bears	6.2
147.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	Rams	6.1
148.	Danny Amendola	WR	Rams	Lions	6.0
149.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Packers	5.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Texans	DEF		Bills	5.9
151.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Broncos	5.9
152.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	Bills	5.8
153.	Ravens	DEF		Broncos	5.8
154.	Josh Morgan	WR	49ers	Colts	5.7
155.	Todd Heap	TE	Ravens	Broncos	5.7
156.	Colts	DEF		49ers	5.7
157.	Dolphins	DEF		Jets	5.7
158.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Raiders	5.6
159.	Jets	DEF		Dolphins	5.6
160.	Brian Hartline	WR	Dolphins	Jets	5.5
161.	Vikings	DEF		Packers	5.5
162.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Saints	5.5
163.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Browns	5.4
164.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Jets	Dolphins	5.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Austin Collie	WR	Colts	49ers	5.3
166.	Garrett Wolfe	RB	Bears	Browns	5.2
167.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Jets	5.2
168.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Giants	5.1
169.	Packers	DEF		Vikings	5.1
170.	Dennis Northcutt	WR	Lions	Rams	5.0
171.	Giants	DEF		Eagles	4.9
172.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	Dolphins	4.9
173.	Willis McGahee	RB	Ravens	Broncos	4.8
174.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	49ers	4.7
175.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	Chargers	4.7
176.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Colts	4.7
177.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Cardinals	4.7
178.	Leonard Weaver	RB	Eagles	Giants	4.7
179.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	Ravens	4.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Lions	DEF		Rams	4.6
181.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Texans	4.6
182.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	Texans	4.5
183.	Jerome Felton	RB	Lions	Rams	4.5
184.	Eldra Buckley	RB	Eagles	Giants	4.4
185.	Greg Camarillo	WR	Dolphins	Jets	4.4
186.	Falcons	DEF		Saints	4.3
187.	Randy McMichael	TE	Rams	Lions	4.3
188.	Rams	DEF		Lions	4.3
189.	Jabar Gaffney	WR	Broncos	Ravens	4.3
190.	49ers	DEF		Colts	4.3
191.	Jaguars	DEF		Titans	4.2
192.	Johnny Knox	WR	Bears	Browns	4.2
193.	Muhsin Muhammad	WR	Panthers	Cardinals	4.2
194.	Keenan Burton	WR	Rams	Lions	4.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	Seahawks	4.2
196.	Raiders	DEF		Chargers	4.2
197.	Chris Brown	RB	Texans	Bills	4.2
198.	Panthers	DEF		Cardinals	4.1
199.	Greg Lewis	WR	Vikings	Packers	4.0
200.	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Lions	Rams	4.0

 

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TE, all TDs are six points , each 25 yards passing are one point , interceptions are -two points , fumbles lost are -two points , each ten yards receiving are one point and two-point conversions are two points . For kickers, all extra points are one point and all field goals are at least three points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards . Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not included in overall rankings) earn one point for each solo tackle , one point for each sack , two points for each interception and six points for each touchdown . Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete against others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Eight NFL Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team.

All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Most Notable Move:

Having trouble trying to figure out if the Atlanta Falcons are a legitimate playoff contender? You’re not alone.

Twice this season the Falcons have looked like challengers in the NFC, climbing up into the top 10 each time. Twice, a 16-point loss has erased all of that progress and plummeted in the rankings.

Atlanta opened up the season at No. 13, but with victories over Miami and Carolina that had many expecting Matt Ryan and the Falcons to match the success they had in the quarterbacks’ rookie season they vaulted as high as No. 4.

But just as some were ready to call them Super Bowl threats, Atlanta suffered a 16-point setback against New England plummeting 15 spots to No. 19 going into its bye week.

A dominating victory over upstart San Francisco coming off the bye week put the Falcons right back on track and jumped them right back to the No. 7 spot and Atlanta remained in the top 10 when it followed it up with a victory over Chicago. All of that work was wiped away again with a 37-21 loss to Dallas this past weekend.

Now the Dirty Birds, still sitting at 4-2 and firmly in the playoff race, find themselves back as just the 19th-best team in our latest power rankings, which simulate each team against every other team 100 times. The Falcons fall nine spots this week and are beating other NFL foes just 47 percent of the time.

And the climb back to the top 10 will be a much tougher challenge this time around. Atlanta goes on the road in three of the next four weeks, including a trip to top-ranked New Orleans this week.

Biggest Gain:

The Cincinnati Bengals are right back into the top 10.

A loss to Houston after four consecutive victories—including three on the road—set the Bengals back after they had risen to as high as No. 9 in the rankings, but Cincinnati got nearly all of those spots back with a big offensive day in a 45-10 rout of Chicago.

The Bengals are beating NFL opponents nearly 66 percent of the time in our projections and jumped nine spots this week.

Honorable mention to some other NFC North teams, as the Packers use another big win over a less-than-average opponent to jump seven spots to No. 8. And the Lions had the bye, so they couldn’t lose. That, along with some ugly losses by the teams around them, makes the Lions big winners this week as they jump five spots to No. 27.

Biggest Loss:

The New York Giants aren’t exactly reeling after back-to-back losses against top-ranked New Orleans and reigning NFC champion Arizona, but the schedule isn’t getting easier.

Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals drops the Giants a whopping 11 spots to 18th. New York is now behind its cross-town rival Jets and is beating opponents just 47.2 percent of the time.

The Falcons are the second-biggest loser, followed by Kansas City, which dips six spots and is now the second-worst team in the league.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	–	83.7	32.1	17.0
2.	Indianapolis Colts	+1	76.2	27.4	16.1
3.	Denver Broncos	+2	75.4	24.0	13.9
4.	Pittsburgh Steelers	+2	74.3	27.3	18.3
5.	New England Patriots	-1	73.1	27.0	17.3
6.	Minnesota Vikings	-4	72.1	27.3	19.2
7.	Arizona Cardinals	+2	69.4	24.3	16.9
8.	Green Bay Packers	+7	68.2	25.5	18.6
9.	Dallas Cowboys	+4	66.7	27.9	20.8
10.	Cincinnati Bengals	+9	65.8	25.7	19.3
11.	San Diego Chargers	+5	63.5	25.7	20.6
12.	Baltimore Ravens	-4	61.2	23.9	19.2
13.	Houston Texans	-1	60.9	24.4	20.7
14.	San Francisco 49ers	-3	60.6	23.2	19.1
15.	New York Jets	+5	58.1	24.2	20.9
16.	Philadelphia Eagles	-2	51.6	21.4	20.9
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	Miami Dolphins	–	50.0	22.0	21.4
18.	New York Giants	-11	47.2	22.5	23.5
19.	Atlanta Falcons	-9	47.0	20.5	21.4
20.	Jacksonville Jaguars	+3	43.9	21.9	24.1
21.	Chicago Bears	-3	43.9	21.1	23.6
22.	Buffalo Bills	+2	42.2	17.9	20.2
23.	Seattle Seahawks	-2	40.8	20.6	24.0
24.	Carolina Panthers	-2	37.4	19.7	24.5
25.	Tennessee Titans	+5	31.6	19.2	27.0
26.	St. Louis Rams	+3	25.2	17.0	27.2
27.	Detroit Lions	+5	22.2	15.8	26.9
28.	Cleveland Browns	-2	20.3	14.8	26.3
29.	Oakland Raiders	-1	20.1	14.1	26.5
30.	Washington Redskins	-3	17.2	13.8	26.4
31.	Kansas City Chiefs	-6	15.7	14.4	28.6
32.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-1	14.8	15.1	31.2

 

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games .

With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Eight NFL Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team.

All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Most Notable Move:

Having trouble trying to figure out if the Atlanta Falcons are a legitimate playoff contender? You’re not alone.

Twice this season the Falcons have looked like challengers in the NFC, climbing up into the top 10 each time. Twice, a 16-point loss has erased all of that progress and plummeted in the rankings.

Atlanta opened up the season at No. 13, but with victories over Miami and Carolina that had many expecting Matt Ryan and the Falcons to match the success they had in the quarterbacks’ rookie season they vaulted as high as No. 4.

But just as some were ready to call them Super Bowl threats, Atlanta suffered a 16-point setback against New England plummeting 15 spots to No. 19 going into its bye week.

A dominating victory over upstart San Francisco coming off the bye week put the Falcons right back on track and jumped them right back to the No. 7 spot and Atlanta remained in the top 10 when it followed it up with a victory over Chicago. All of that work was wiped away again with a 37-21 loss to Dallas this past weekend.

Now the Dirty Birds, still sitting at 4-2 and firmly in the playoff race, find themselves back as just the 19th-best team in our latest power rankings, which simulate each team against every other team 100 times. The Falcons fall nine spots this week and are beating other NFL foes just 47 percent of the time.

And the climb back to the top 10 will be a much tougher challenge this time around. Atlanta goes on the road in three of the next four weeks, including a trip to top-ranked New Orleans this week.

Biggest Gain:

The Cincinnati Bengals are right back into the top 10.

A loss to Houston after four consecutive victories—including three on the road—set the Bengals back after they had risen to as high as No. 9 in the rankings, but Cincinnati got nearly all of those spots back with a big offensive day in a 45-10 rout of Chicago.

The Bengals are beating NFL opponents nearly 66 percent of the time in our projections and jumped nine spots this week.

Honorable mention to some other NFC North teams, as the Packers use another big win over a less-than-average opponent to jump seven spots to No. 8. And the Lions had the bye, so they couldn’t lose. That, along with some ugly losses by the teams around them, makes the Lions big winners this week as they jump five spots to No. 27.

Biggest Loss:

The New York Giants aren’t exactly reeling after back-to-back losses against top-ranked New Orleans and reigning NFC champion Arizona, but the schedule isn’t getting easier.

Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals drops the Giants a whopping 11 spots to 18th. New York is now behind its cross-town rival Jets and is beating opponents just 47.2 percent of the time.

The Falcons are the second-biggest loser, followed by Kansas City, which dips six spots and is now the second-worst team in the league.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	–	83.7	32.1	17.0
2.	Indianapolis Colts	+1	76.2	27.4	16.1
3.	Denver Broncos	+2	75.4	24.0	13.9
4.	Pittsburgh Steelers	+2	74.3	27.3	18.3
5.	New England Patriots	-1	73.1	27.0	17.3
6.	Minnesota Vikings	-4	72.1	27.3	19.2
7.	Arizona Cardinals	+2	69.4	24.3	16.9
8.	Green Bay Packers	+7	68.2	25.5	18.6
9.	Dallas Cowboys	+4	66.7	27.9	20.8
10.	Cincinnati Bengals	+9	65.8	25.7	19.3
11.	San Diego Chargers	+5	63.5	25.7	20.6
12.	Baltimore Ravens	-4	61.2	23.9	19.2
13.	Houston Texans	-1	60.9	24.4	20.7
14.	San Francisco 49ers	-3	60.6	23.2	19.1
15.	New York Jets	+5	58.1	24.2	20.9
16.	Philadelphia Eagles	-2	51.6	21.4	20.9
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	Miami Dolphins	–	50.0	22.0	21.4
18.	New York Giants	-11	47.2	22.5	23.5
19.	Atlanta Falcons	-9	47.0	20.5	21.4
20.	Jacksonville Jaguars	+3	43.9	21.9	24.1
21.	Chicago Bears	-3	43.9	21.1	23.6
22.	Buffalo Bills	+2	42.2	17.9	20.2
23.	Seattle Seahawks	-2	40.8	20.6	24.0
24.	Carolina Panthers	-2	37.4	19.7	24.5
25.	Tennessee Titans	+5	31.6	19.2	27.0
26.	St. Louis Rams	+3	25.2	17.0	27.2
27.	Detroit Lions	+5	22.2	15.8	26.9
28.	Cleveland Browns	-2	20.3	14.8	26.3
29.	Oakland Raiders	-1	20.1	14.1	26.5
30.	Washington Redskins	-3	17.2	13.8	26.4
31.	Kansas City Chiefs	-6	15.7	14.4	28.6
32.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-1	14.8	15.1	31.2

 

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games .

With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Eight NFL Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team.

All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Most Notable Move:

Having trouble trying to figure out if the Atlanta Falcons are a legitimate playoff contender? You’re not alone.

Twice this season the Falcons have looked like challengers in the NFC, climbing up into the top 10 each time. Twice, a 16-point loss has erased all of that progress and plummeted in the rankings.

Atlanta opened up the season at No. 13, but with victories over Miami and Carolina that had many expecting Matt Ryan and the Falcons to match the success they had in the quarterbacks’ rookie season they vaulted as high as No. 4.

But just as some were ready to call them Super Bowl threats, Atlanta suffered a 16-point setback against New England plummeting 15 spots to No. 19 going into its bye week.

A dominating victory over upstart San Francisco coming off the bye week put the Falcons right back on track and jumped them right back to the No. 7 spot and Atlanta remained in the top 10 when it followed it up with a victory over Chicago. All of that work was wiped away again with a 37-21 loss to Dallas this past weekend.

Now the Dirty Birds, still sitting at 4-2 and firmly in the playoff race, find themselves back as just the 19th-best team in our latest power rankings, which simulate each team against every other team 100 times. The Falcons fall nine spots this week and are beating other NFL foes just 47 percent of the time.

And the climb back to the top 10 will be a much tougher challenge this time around. Atlanta goes on the road in three of the next four weeks, including a trip to top-ranked New Orleans this week.

Biggest Gain:

The Cincinnati Bengals are right back into the top 10.

A loss to Houston after four consecutive victories—including three on the road—set the Bengals back after they had risen to as high as No. 9 in the rankings, but Cincinnati got nearly all of those spots back with a big offensive day in a 45-10 rout of Chicago.

The Bengals are beating NFL opponents nearly 66 percent of the time in our projections and jumped nine spots this week.

Honorable mention to some other NFC North teams, as the Packers use another big win over a less-than-average opponent to jump seven spots to No. 8. And the Lions had the bye, so they couldn’t lose. That, along with some ugly losses by the teams around them, makes the Lions big winners this week as they jump five spots to No. 27.

Biggest Loss:

The New York Giants aren’t exactly reeling after back-to-back losses against top-ranked New Orleans and reigning NFC champion Arizona, but the schedule isn’t getting easier.

Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals drops the Giants a whopping 11 spots to 18th. New York is now behind its cross-town rival Jets and is beating opponents just 47.2 percent of the time.

The Falcons are the second-biggest loser, followed by Kansas City, which dips six spots and is now the second-worst team in the league.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	–	83.7	32.1	17.0
2.	Indianapolis Colts	+1	76.2	27.4	16.1
3.	Denver Broncos	+2	75.4	24.0	13.9
4.	Pittsburgh Steelers	+2	74.3	27.3	18.3
5.	New England Patriots	-1	73.1	27.0	17.3
6.	Minnesota Vikings	-4	72.1	27.3	19.2
7.	Arizona Cardinals	+2	69.4	24.3	16.9
8.	Green Bay Packers	+7	68.2	25.5	18.6
9.	Dallas Cowboys	+4	66.7	27.9	20.8
10.	Cincinnati Bengals	+9	65.8	25.7	19.3
11.	San Diego Chargers	+5	63.5	25.7	20.6
12.	Baltimore Ravens	-4	61.2	23.9	19.2
13.	Houston Texans	-1	60.9	24.4	20.7
14.	San Francisco 49ers	-3	60.6	23.2	19.1
15.	New York Jets	+5	58.1	24.2	20.9
16.	Philadelphia Eagles	-2	51.6	21.4	20.9
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	Miami Dolphins	–	50.0	22.0	21.4
18.	New York Giants	-11	47.2	22.5	23.5
19.	Atlanta Falcons	-9	47.0	20.5	21.4
20.	Jacksonville Jaguars	+3	43.9	21.9	24.1
21.	Chicago Bears	-3	43.9	21.1	23.6
22.	Buffalo Bills	+2	42.2	17.9	20.2
23.	Seattle Seahawks	-2	40.8	20.6	24.0
24.	Carolina Panthers	-2	37.4	19.7	24.5
25.	Tennessee Titans	+5	31.6	19.2	27.0
26.	St. Louis Rams	+3	25.2	17.0	27.2
27.	Detroit Lions	+5	22.2	15.8	26.9
28.	Cleveland Browns	-2	20.3	14.8	26.3
29.	Oakland Raiders	-1	20.1	14.1	26.5
30.	Washington Redskins	-3	17.2	13.8	26.4
31.	Kansas City Chiefs	-6	15.7	14.4	28.6
32.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-1	14.8	15.1	31.2

 

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games .

With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Eight NFL Picks From WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 6 Minnesota Vikings 22, No. 8 Green Bay Packers 25
Will Brett Favre and the Vikings run away with the NFC North? Or will they be locked in a battle with the Green Bay Packers from here on out?

Those questions could be answered with just one game on Sunday between Favre’s new team and his old.

In two of the divisional races in the AFC, the top two teams are already separated by at least 2.5 games. Not so in the NFC. Only one division race has a first-place team even two games ahead of its closest foe, but that could change this week as the Viking’s 1.5-game lead will either extend to 2.5 games—if Minnesota bounces back to from last week’s debacle at Pittsburgh to win this week—or just 0.5 games if the Packers hand the Vikings their second consecutive loss.

Minnesota won the first meeting between the teams, 30-23, and Green Bay will be desperately looking for a season split.

Green Bay hasn’t lost since falling to Minnesota in Week Four. Since then, it has benefited from a bye week and games against two of the NFL’s worst teams—the Packers outscored the hapless Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns 57-3 over the last two weeks.

Thanks to four victories, none of them against teams with a winning record, the Packers’ defense now ranks amongst the league’s best. They’re fifth in scoring defense, allowing just 16 points per game. Bolstered by an off-season switch to the 3-4 defense, opponents are rushing for 167 yards per game; they’re doing so on just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Packers are also giving up just 4.5 yards per play overall.

The Packers don’t rank quite as highly on the offensive side of the ball. They rank outside the top ten in rushing and passing yards per game, but their numbers per attempt look much better. Ryan Grant is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and Aaron Rodgers is passing for 8.3 yards per attempt. They will likely need to keep those numbers up against one of the highest-scoring teams in the league.

Minnesota’s undefeated run came to an end on Sunday with a 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh. The Vikings, who were 6-0 up to that point, also boasted a few cupcake victories—over the Browns, Lions and St. Louis Rams—but had been able to edge some of the league’s front-runners as well. Minnesota beat Green Bay, San Francisco and Baltimore by a combined 12 points, and the close games against tough teams took their toll on the Vikings’ statistical rankings.

They rank third in scoring with nearly 30 yards per game, but are outside the top ten in most other offensive categories. The Vikings are 12th in rushing yards per game despite having one of the best backs in the league.

Adrian Peterson already has eight touchdowns and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, but with Favre at the helm, Minnesota has gone to its passing game far more than in previous seasons. Even with Favre, the oft pass-hungry Vikings are averaging less than seven yards per attempt.

On defense, lineman Jared Allen was an absolute beast in the first meeting between the two teams. His early bid for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award has helped Minnesota hold opponents to just seven yards per passing attempt.

It looks like the Vikings will need some more heroics from Favre in his first trip back to Lambeau Field since parting ways with the Packers after the 2007 season. In 10,000 simulations, Green Bay exacts its revenge on Minnesota 54.8 percent of the time and by a score of 25-22.

With the spread opening at just that margin—three—the Packers only cover 51.8 percent of the time. With the total at 47, the under is the stronger play, but it’s pretty weak at just over 51 percent as well.

Green Bay gets the edge from a few bigger passing plays.

In what many will surely view as another battle between Favre and his one-time backup and present-day successor Rodgers, the latter completes just one more pass on three more attempts, but throws for nearly 40 more yards, 0.2 more touchdowns and 0.2 fewer interceptions per simulation (View Boxscore ).

The Packers also seem to take care of their offensive line woes. After giving up eight sacks to the Vikings in their first meeting, they give up just three this time around.

Our Against the Spread “Lock of the Week” is now 6-1 on the year and 22-4 all-time. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 8
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Oakland Raiders	15.1	14	Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers	84.9	30	Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers	18.3	15	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	81.7	28	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	18.3	17	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	81.7	30	Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons	18.5	16	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	81.5	29	Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns	24.5	14	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	75.5	24	Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers	29.1	17	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	70.9	25	Simulate Game
New York Giants	41.5	19	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	58.5	24	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	42.1	18	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	57.9	23	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	45.2	22	Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers	54.8	25	Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars	49.9	23	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	50.1	25	Simulate Game
St. Louis Rams	57.9	21	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	42.1	20	Simulate Game
Denver Broncos	58.7	20	Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens	41.3	19	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	65.8	20	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	34.2	17	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week Eight:

Every week seems to be the week where NFL fans expect to see the Denver Broncos’ undefeated start come to an end and this week is no different as they travel to Baltimore.

In the simulations though, the Broncos keep their streak alive, winning 58.7 percent of the time on the road, but by an average margin of just one point in a defensive struggle that sees the under come through 63 percent of the time.

The tight race in the NFC East becomes just a smidgen clearer as front-runners New York and Philadelphia square off in the City of Brotherly Love.

The home-standing Eagles, who struggled the past two weeks with Washington and Oakland, score a major victory 58.5 percent of the time and by a score of 24-19, where over the total of 41.5 looks like a great bet.

New Orleans and Indianapolis, the only other teams that remain undefeated heading into Week Eight, both look like they’ll extend their streaks into Week Nine. The Saints top the Falcons 81.5 percent of the time and by double-digits, while the Colts beat the 49ers more than 70 percent of the time and by an average of eight points.

Other Notable Names in Week Eight:

Former No. 1 pick Alex Smith surely won’t have an easy assignment as San Francisco hands the reins back to the former starter against Peyton Manning. Smith, who returned to action for the first time in nearly two years last week, throws for 172 yards, one touchdown and probably one interception in his first start since Nov. 12, 2007.

Even with Leon Washington’s season-ending injury, the Jets trampled all over the Oakland Raiders last week, rushing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in a rout. Rookie Shonn Greene and starter Thomas Jones have a little tougher outing against Miami and the league’s eighth-ranked rushing defense this week. Jones rushes for almost 77 yards and Greene nearly 70, each averaging 0.6 touchdowns per game.

And Miles Austin, on an unprecedented two-game tear that includes more than 400 yards and four touchdowns (a pace of 128 receptions, 3,368 yards and 32 TDs over 16 games), has a decent chance to extend his streak of success to three games against Seattle and the 15th-ranked pass defense.

Austin averages more than 80 yards and half a touchdown as the Cowboys roll at home.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Eight NFL Picks From WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 6 Minnesota Vikings 22, No. 8 Green Bay Packers 25
Will Brett Favre and the Vikings run away with the NFC North? Or will they be locked in a battle with the Green Bay Packers from here on out?

Those questions could be answered with just one game on Sunday between Favre’s new team and his old.

In two of the divisional races in the AFC, the top two teams are already separated by at least 2.5 games. Not so in the NFC. Only one division race has a first-place team even two games ahead of its closest foe, but that could change this week as the Viking’s 1.5-game lead will either extend to 2.5 games—if Minnesota bounces back to from last week’s debacle at Pittsburgh to win this week—or just 0.5 games if the Packers hand the Vikings their second consecutive loss.

Minnesota won the first meeting between the teams, 30-23, and Green Bay will be desperately looking for a season split.

Green Bay hasn’t lost since falling to Minnesota in Week Four. Since then, it has benefited from a bye week and games against two of the NFL’s worst teams—the Packers outscored the hapless Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns 57-3 over the last two weeks.

Thanks to four victories, none of them against teams with a winning record, the Packers’ defense now ranks amongst the league’s best. They’re fifth in scoring defense, allowing just 16 points per game. Bolstered by an off-season switch to the 3-4 defense, opponents are rushing for 167 yards per game; they’re doing so on just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Packers are also giving up just 4.5 yards per play overall.

The Packers don’t rank quite as highly on the offensive side of the ball. They rank outside the top ten in rushing and passing yards per game, but their numbers per attempt look much better. Ryan Grant is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and Aaron Rodgers is passing for 8.3 yards per attempt. They will likely need to keep those numbers up against one of the highest-scoring teams in the league.

Minnesota’s undefeated run came to an end on Sunday with a 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh. The Vikings, who were 6-0 up to that point, also boasted a few cupcake victories—over the Browns, Lions and St. Louis Rams—but had been able to edge some of the league’s front-runners as well. Minnesota beat Green Bay, San Francisco and Baltimore by a combined 12 points, and the close games against tough teams took their toll on the Vikings’ statistical rankings.

They rank third in scoring with nearly 30 yards per game, but are outside the top ten in most other offensive categories. The Vikings are 12th in rushing yards per game despite having one of the best backs in the league.

Adrian Peterson already has eight touchdowns and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, but with Favre at the helm, Minnesota has gone to its passing game far more than in previous seasons. Even with Favre, the oft pass-hungry Vikings are averaging less than seven yards per attempt.

On defense, lineman Jared Allen was an absolute beast in the first meeting between the two teams. His early bid for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award has helped Minnesota hold opponents to just seven yards per passing attempt.

It looks like the Vikings will need some more heroics from Favre in his first trip back to Lambeau Field since parting ways with the Packers after the 2007 season. In 10,000 simulations, Green Bay exacts its revenge on Minnesota 54.8 percent of the time and by a score of 25-22.

With the spread opening at just that margin—three—the Packers only cover 51.8 percent of the time. With the total at 47, the under is the stronger play, but it’s pretty weak at just over 51 percent as well.

Green Bay gets the edge from a few bigger passing plays.

In what many will surely view as another battle between Favre and his one-time backup and present-day successor Rodgers, the latter completes just one more pass on three more attempts, but throws for nearly 40 more yards, 0.2 more touchdowns and 0.2 fewer interceptions per simulation (View Boxscore ).

The Packers also seem to take care of their offensive line woes. After giving up eight sacks to the Vikings in their first meeting, they give up just three this time around.

Our Against the Spread “Lock of the Week” is now 6-1 on the year and 22-4 all-time. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 8
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Oakland Raiders	15.1	14	Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers	84.9	30	Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers	18.3	15	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	81.7	28	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	18.3	17	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	81.7	30	Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons	18.5	16	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	81.5	29	Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns	24.5	14	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	75.5	24	Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers	29.1	17	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	70.9	25	Simulate Game
New York Giants	41.5	19	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	58.5	24	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	42.1	18	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	57.9	23	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	45.2	22	Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers	54.8	25	Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars	49.9	23	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	50.1	25	Simulate Game
St. Louis Rams	57.9	21	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	42.1	20	Simulate Game
Denver Broncos	58.7	20	Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens	41.3	19	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	65.8	20	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	34.2	17	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week Eight:

Every week seems to be the week where NFL fans expect to see the Denver Broncos’ undefeated start come to an end and this week is no different as they travel to Baltimore.

In the simulations though, the Broncos keep their streak alive, winning 58.7 percent of the time on the road, but by an average margin of just one point in a defensive struggle that sees the under come through 63 percent of the time.

The tight race in the NFC East becomes just a smidgen clearer as front-runners New York and Philadelphia square off in the City of Brotherly Love.

The home-standing Eagles, who struggled the past two weeks with Washington and Oakland, score a major victory 58.5 percent of the time and by a score of 24-19, where over the total of 41.5 looks like a great bet.

New Orleans and Indianapolis, the only other teams that remain undefeated heading into Week Eight, both look like they’ll extend their streaks into Week Nine. The Saints top the Falcons 81.5 percent of the time and by double-digits, while the Colts beat the 49ers more than 70 percent of the time and by an average of eight points.

Other Notable Names in Week Eight:

Former No. 1 pick Alex Smith surely won’t have an easy assignment as San Francisco hands the reins back to the former starter against Peyton Manning. Smith, who returned to action for the first time in nearly two years last week, throws for 172 yards, one touchdown and probably one interception in his first start since Nov. 12, 2007.

Even with Leon Washington’s season-ending injury, the Jets trampled all over the Oakland Raiders last week, rushing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in a rout. Rookie Shonn Greene and starter Thomas Jones have a little tougher outing against Miami and the league’s eighth-ranked rushing defense this week. Jones rushes for almost 77 yards and Greene nearly 70, each averaging 0.6 touchdowns per game.

And Miles Austin, on an unprecedented two-game tear that includes more than 400 yards and four touchdowns (a pace of 128 receptions, 3,368 yards and 32 TDs over 16 games), has a decent chance to extend his streak of success to three games against Seattle and the 15th-ranked pass defense.

Austin averages more than 80 yards and half a touchdown as the Cowboys roll at home.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

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