Week Eight NFL Picks From WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 6 Minnesota Vikings 22, No. 8 Green Bay Packers 25
Will Brett Favre and the Vikings run away with the NFC North? Or will they be locked in a battle with the Green Bay Packers from here on out?

Those questions could be answered with just one game on Sunday between Favre’s new team and his old.

In two of the divisional races in the AFC, the top two teams are already separated by at least 2.5 games. Not so in the NFC. Only one division race has a first-place team even two games ahead of its closest foe, but that could change this week as the Viking’s 1.5-game lead will either extend to 2.5 games—if Minnesota bounces back to from last week’s debacle at Pittsburgh to win this week—or just 0.5 games if the Packers hand the Vikings their second consecutive loss.

Minnesota won the first meeting between the teams, 30-23, and Green Bay will be desperately looking for a season split.

Green Bay hasn’t lost since falling to Minnesota in Week Four. Since then, it has benefited from a bye week and games against two of the NFL’s worst teams—the Packers outscored the hapless Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns 57-3 over the last two weeks.

Thanks to four victories, none of them against teams with a winning record, the Packers’ defense now ranks amongst the league’s best. They’re fifth in scoring defense, allowing just 16 points per game. Bolstered by an off-season switch to the 3-4 defense, opponents are rushing for 167 yards per game; they’re doing so on just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Packers are also giving up just 4.5 yards per play overall.

The Packers don’t rank quite as highly on the offensive side of the ball. They rank outside the top ten in rushing and passing yards per game, but their numbers per attempt look much better. Ryan Grant is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and Aaron Rodgers is passing for 8.3 yards per attempt. They will likely need to keep those numbers up against one of the highest-scoring teams in the league.

Minnesota’s undefeated run came to an end on Sunday with a 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh. The Vikings, who were 6-0 up to that point, also boasted a few cupcake victories—over the Browns, Lions and St. Louis Rams—but had been able to edge some of the league’s front-runners as well. Minnesota beat Green Bay, San Francisco and Baltimore by a combined 12 points, and the close games against tough teams took their toll on the Vikings’ statistical rankings.

They rank third in scoring with nearly 30 yards per game, but are outside the top ten in most other offensive categories. The Vikings are 12th in rushing yards per game despite having one of the best backs in the league.

Adrian Peterson already has eight touchdowns and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, but with Favre at the helm, Minnesota has gone to its passing game far more than in previous seasons. Even with Favre, the oft pass-hungry Vikings are averaging less than seven yards per attempt.

On defense, lineman Jared Allen was an absolute beast in the first meeting between the two teams. His early bid for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award has helped Minnesota hold opponents to just seven yards per passing attempt.

It looks like the Vikings will need some more heroics from Favre in his first trip back to Lambeau Field since parting ways with the Packers after the 2007 season. In 10,000 simulations, Green Bay exacts its revenge on Minnesota 54.8 percent of the time and by a score of 25-22.

With the spread opening at just that margin—three—the Packers only cover 51.8 percent of the time. With the total at 47, the under is the stronger play, but it’s pretty weak at just over 51 percent as well.

Green Bay gets the edge from a few bigger passing plays.

In what many will surely view as another battle between Favre and his one-time backup and present-day successor Rodgers, the latter completes just one more pass on three more attempts, but throws for nearly 40 more yards, 0.2 more touchdowns and 0.2 fewer interceptions per simulation (View Boxscore ).

The Packers also seem to take care of their offensive line woes. After giving up eight sacks to the Vikings in their first meeting, they give up just three this time around.

Our Against the Spread “Lock of the Week” is now 6-1 on the year and 22-4 all-time. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 8
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Oakland Raiders	15.1	14	Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers	84.9	30	Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers	18.3	15	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	81.7	28	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	18.3	17	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	81.7	30	Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons	18.5	16	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	81.5	29	Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns	24.5	14	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	75.5	24	Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers	29.1	17	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	70.9	25	Simulate Game
New York Giants	41.5	19	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	58.5	24	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	42.1	18	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	57.9	23	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	45.2	22	Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers	54.8	25	Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars	49.9	23	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	50.1	25	Simulate Game
St. Louis Rams	57.9	21	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	42.1	20	Simulate Game
Denver Broncos	58.7	20	Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens	41.3	19	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	65.8	20	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	34.2	17	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week Eight:

Every week seems to be the week where NFL fans expect to see the Denver Broncos’ undefeated start come to an end and this week is no different as they travel to Baltimore.

In the simulations though, the Broncos keep their streak alive, winning 58.7 percent of the time on the road, but by an average margin of just one point in a defensive struggle that sees the under come through 63 percent of the time.

The tight race in the NFC East becomes just a smidgen clearer as front-runners New York and Philadelphia square off in the City of Brotherly Love.

The home-standing Eagles, who struggled the past two weeks with Washington and Oakland, score a major victory 58.5 percent of the time and by a score of 24-19, where over the total of 41.5 looks like a great bet.

New Orleans and Indianapolis, the only other teams that remain undefeated heading into Week Eight, both look like they’ll extend their streaks into Week Nine. The Saints top the Falcons 81.5 percent of the time and by double-digits, while the Colts beat the 49ers more than 70 percent of the time and by an average of eight points.

Other Notable Names in Week Eight:

Former No. 1 pick Alex Smith surely won’t have an easy assignment as San Francisco hands the reins back to the former starter against Peyton Manning. Smith, who returned to action for the first time in nearly two years last week, throws for 172 yards, one touchdown and probably one interception in his first start since Nov. 12, 2007.

Even with Leon Washington’s season-ending injury, the Jets trampled all over the Oakland Raiders last week, rushing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in a rout. Rookie Shonn Greene and starter Thomas Jones have a little tougher outing against Miami and the league’s eighth-ranked rushing defense this week. Jones rushes for almost 77 yards and Greene nearly 70, each averaging 0.6 touchdowns per game.

And Miles Austin, on an unprecedented two-game tear that includes more than 400 yards and four touchdowns (a pace of 128 receptions, 3,368 yards and 32 TDs over 16 games), has a decent chance to extend his streak of success to three games against Seattle and the 15th-ranked pass defense.

Austin averages more than 80 yards and half a touchdown as the Cowboys roll at home.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Seven Fantasy Football Projections

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football . Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

 

 

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Dolphins	24.5
2.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	Rams	24.1
3.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Browns	22.3
4.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Chiefs	21.6
5.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Buccaneers	20.8
6.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	49ers	20.3
7.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Vikings	19.0
8.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Steelers	18.9
9.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Giants	18.6
10.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Browns	18.5
11.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Bills	18.0
12.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Raiders	17.3
13.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Steelers	17.3
14.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Bengals	16.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Texans	16.4
16.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Cowboys	16.3
17.	Ronnie Brown	RB	Dolphins	Saints	16.3
18.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Redskins	16.1
19.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	Cowboys	16.1
20.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Cardinals	16.1
21.	Clinton Portis	RB	Redskins	Eagles	14.9
22.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Chargers	14.2
23.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Colts	14.1
24.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Bills	14.0
25.	Shaun Hill	QB	49ers	Texans	13.9
26.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Buccaneers	13.8
27.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Dolphins	13.5
28.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Buccaneers	13.2
29.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Bengals	13.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Falcons	12.7
31.	Larry Johnson	RB	Chiefs	Chargers	12.7
32.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Giants	12.6
33.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Dolphins	12.5
34.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	49ers	12.5
35.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Steelers	12.4
36.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Panthers	12.3
37.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Bears	12.3
38.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Vikings	12.1
39.	Leon Washington	RB	Jets	Raiders	12.0
40.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Vikings	12.0
41.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	Rams	11.9
42.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Bears	11.9
43.	Brian Westbrook	RB	Eagles	Redskins	11.8
44.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Buccaneers	11.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	Bills	Panthers	11.7
46.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Patriots	11.6
47.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	Rams	11.6
48.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Saints	11.6
49.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	49ers	11.5
50.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Chiefs	11.5
51.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	Jets	11.4
52.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Eagles	11.3
53.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	Rams	11.2
54.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Giants	11.0
55.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Cowboys	11.0
56.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Chiefs	10.9
57.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Browns	10.7
58.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Chiefs	10.5
59.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Raiders	9.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Saints	9.8
61.	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Chiefs	Chargers	9.7
62.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Browns	9.7
63.	Owen Daniels	TE	Texans	49ers	9.7
64.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Browns	9.6
65.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Falcons	9.5
66.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	Rams	9.5
67.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Bears	9.5
68.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Redskins	9.4
69.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Cardinals	9.3
70.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Falcons	9.3
71.	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Raiders	Jets	9.3
72.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Buccaneers	9.2
73.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Vikings	9.2
74.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	Rams	9.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Josh Johnson	QB	Buccaneers	Patriots	8.8
76.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Cardinals	8.8
77.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Cowboys	8.7
78.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Bills	8.6
79.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Cardinals	8.6
80.	John Carney	K	Saints	Dolphins	8.5
81.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Bears	8.5
82.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	49ers	8.4
83.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	Falcons	8.4
84.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Steelers	8.3
85.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Cowboys	8.3
86.	Derek Anderson	QB	Browns	Packers	8.3
87.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Chiefs	8.3
88.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Bills	8.2
89.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Panthers	8.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Giants	8.1
91.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Vikings	8.1
92.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Cardinals	8.0
93.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Jets	8.0
94.	Marc Bulger	QB	Rams	Colts	8.0
95.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	Panthers	7.9
96.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Raiders	7.8
97.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Packers	7.8
98.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Texans	7.8
99.	Mario Manningham	WR	Giants	Cardinals	7.8
100.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Texans	7.7
101.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Bengals	7.7
102.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Falcons	7.6
103.	Lance Moore	WR	Saints	Dolphins	7.5
104.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Bengals	7.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Jerome Harrison	RB	Browns	Packers	7.5
106.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Dolphins	7.5
107.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Dolphins	7.4
108.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	Rams	7.4
109.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	Buccaneers	7.3
110.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Eagles	7.3
111.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Chiefs	7.3
112.	Jermichael Finley	TE	Packers	Browns	7.2
113.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Falcons	7.2
114.	Joshua Cribbs	WR	Browns	Packers	7.2
115.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Redskins	7.1
116.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Bengals	7.0
117.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Redskins	7.0
118.	Chris Cooley	TE	Redskins	Eagles	7.0
119.	Packers	DEF		Browns	7.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Vikings	6.9
121.	Giants	DEF		Cardinals	6.9
122.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Redskins	6.8
123.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Giants	6.7
124.	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	RB	Patriots	Buccaneers	6.6
125.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Bills	6.6
126.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Jets	6.6
127.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Cowboys	6.6
128.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Saints	6.6
129.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Colts	6.6
130.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Panthers	6.5
131.	Eagles	DEF		Redskins	6.5
132.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Jets	Raiders	6.4
133.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Saints	6.4
134.	Billy Cundiff	K	Browns	Packers	6.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Bengals	DEF		Bears	6.4
136.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Steelers	6.3
137.	Vikings	DEF		Steelers	6.3
138.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	Jets	6.3
139.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Giants	6.2
140.	Patriots	DEF		Buccaneers	6.2
141.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Giants	6.2
142.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Falcons	6.1
143.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Chiefs	6.0
144.	Chargers	DEF		Chiefs	6.0
145.	Austin Collie	WR	Colts	Rams	6.0
146.	Leonard Weaver	RB	Eagles	Redskins	5.9
147.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Cardinals	5.8
148.	Ted Ginn Jr.	WR	Dolphins	Saints	5.8
149.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Cowboys	5.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Glen Coffee	RB	49ers	Texans	5.7
151.	Panthers	DEF		Bills	5.7
152.	Bears	DEF		Bengals	5.7
153.	Raiders	DEF		Jets	5.7
154.	Johnny Knox	WR	Bears	Bengals	5.7
155.	Jets	DEF		Raiders	5.6
156.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	Chargers	5.6
157.	Bills	DEF		Panthers	5.4
158.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Patriots	5.3
159.	Browns	DEF		Packers	5.3
160.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	Panthers	5.3
161.	Colts	DEF		Rams	5.2
162.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Dolphins	5.1
163.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	Eagles	5.1
164.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Texans	5.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Isaac Bruce	WR	49ers	Texans	5.1
166.	49ers	DEF		Texans	5.0
167.	Brian Robiskie	WR	Browns	Packers	5.0
168.	Josh Morgan	WR	49ers	Texans	5.0
169.	Muhsin Muhammad	WR	Panthers	Bills	4.9
170.	Mark Bradley	WR	Chiefs	Chargers	4.9
171.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	Patriots	4.8
172.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Packers	4.8
173.	Shane Andrus	K	Buccaneers	Patriots	4.8
174.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Dolphins	4.8
175.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Redskins	4.8
176.	Bobby Wade	WR	Chiefs	Chargers	4.7
177.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	49ers	4.7
178.	Chiefs	DEF		Chargers	4.7
179.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	Raiders	4.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Louis Murphy	WR	Raiders	Jets	4.7
181.	Saints	DEF		Dolphins	4.6
182.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	Bears	4.5
183.	Texans	DEF		49ers	4.5
184.	Steelers	DEF		Vikings	4.4
185.	Bernard Berrian	WR	Vikings	Steelers	4.4
186.	Cardinals	DEF		Giants	4.3
187.	Redskins	DEF		Eagles	4.3
188.	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	Vikings	Steelers	4.3
189.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	Colts	4.2
190.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Bengals	4.2
191.	Falcons	DEF		Cowboys	4.2
192.	Mike Wallace	WR	Steelers	Vikings	4.1
193.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	Falcons	4.0
194.	Antwaan Randle El	WR	Redskins	Eagles	3.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	David Clowney	WR	Jets	Raiders	3.8
196.	Sammie Stroughter	WR	Buccaneers	Patriots	3.8
197.	Donald Lee	TE	Packers	Browns	3.8
198.	Cowboys	DEF		Falcons	3.8
199.	Brian Leonard	RB	Bengals	Bears	3.7
200.	Chris Brown	RB	Texans	49ers	3.7

 

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TE, all TDs are six points , each 25 yards passing are one point , interceptions are minus two points , fumbles lost are minus two points , each ten yards receiving are one point and two-point conversions are two points .

For kickers, all extra points are one point and all field goals are at least three points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards .

Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not included in overall rankings) earn one point for each solo tackle , one point for each sack , two points for each interception and six points for each touchdown . Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete gainst others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Week 6 Fantasy Football Projections

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football. Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

 

 

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Raiders	20.9
2.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Lions	20.2
3.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Giants	19.8
4.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Bengals	19.8
5.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Texans	18.7
6.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Browns	18.5
7.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Titans	18.3
8.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Saints	18.1
9.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Broncos	17.9
10.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Seahawks	17.8
11.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Falcons	17.7
12.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Cardinals	17.4
13.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Ravens	17.2
14.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Bears	17.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Giants	16.8
16.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	Rams	16.8
17.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Vikings	16.7
18.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Lions	16.6
19.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Browns	16.5
20.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Falcons	16.5
21.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Chargers	16.3
22.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Chargers	15.8
23.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Ravens	15.8
24.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Vikings	15.3
25.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	Rams	14.8
26.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	Bears	14.7
27.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Texans	14.1
28.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Redskins	13.9
29.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Bengals	13.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Chiefs	13.9
31.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Saints	13.6
32.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Jaguars	13.5
33.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Buccaneers	13.5
34.	Clinton Portis	RB	Redskins	Chiefs	12.8
35.	Daunte Culpepper	QB	Lions	Packers	12.7
36.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Steelers	12.5
37.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Buccaneers	12.5
38.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Packers	12.4
39.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Browns	12.3
40.	Marc Bulger	QB	Rams	Jaguars	12.3
41.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Bears	12.3
42.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Raiders	12.2
43.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Bills	11.9
44.	Brian Westbrook	RB	Eagles	Raiders	11.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Jets	11.4
46.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Seahawks	11.2
47.	Josh Johnson	QB	Buccaneers	Panthers	11.2
48.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Buccaneers	11.2
49.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Buccaneers	11.1
50.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	Patriots	10.9
51.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Panthers	10.8
52.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Lions	10.8
53.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Broncos	10.8
54.	Leon Washington	RB	Jets	Bills	10.7
55.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Seahawks	10.6
56.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Cardinals	10.5
57.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Giants	10.5
58.	Sammy Morris	RB	Patriots	Titans	10.5
59.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Titans	10.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Bengals	10.3
61.	Trent Edwards	QB	Bills	Jets	10.2
62.	Larry Johnson	RB	Chiefs	Redskins	10.2
63.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Saints	10.2
64.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Broncos	10.2
65.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Raiders	10.1
66.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Cardinals	10.1
67.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Saints	10.0
68.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Texans	9.6
69.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Seahawks	9.6
70.	Mewelde Moore	RB	Steelers	Browns	9.5
71.	Kerry Collins	QB	Titans	Patriots	9.4
72.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Chargers	9.2
73.	Derek Anderson	QB	Browns	Steelers	9.2
74.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Titans	9.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Browns	9.1
76.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Raiders	9.1
77.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Texans	9.0
78.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Raiders	8.9
79.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Bears	8.9
80.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Buccaneers	8.9
81.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Lions	8.9
82.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Chiefs	8.8
83.	Garrett Hartley	K	Saints	Giants	8.8
84.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	Rams	8.8
85.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Broncos	8.8
86.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Bills	8.6
87.	Mario Manningham	WR	Giants	Saints	8.6
88.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Falcons	8.5
89.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Giants	8.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	Jets	8.4
91.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Bears	8.4
92.	Owen Daniels	TE	Texans	Bengals	8.4
93.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	Cardinals	8.4
94.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Jets	8.3
95.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Ravens	8.3
96.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Broncos	8.2
97.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Steelers	8.2
98.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Bengals	8.2
99.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	Panthers	8.1
100.	Johnny Knox	WR	Bears	Falcons	8.1
101.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	Rams	8.1
102.	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Raiders	Eagles	8.0
103.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Broncos	8.0
104.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	Chargers	8.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Packers	8.0
106.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Chargers	8.0
107.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Ravens	7.9
108.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Bills	7.9
109.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Eagles	7.7
110.	LaMont Jordan	RB	Broncos	Chargers	7.7
111.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Saints	7.7
112.	Todd Heap	TE	Ravens	Vikings	7.6
113.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Browns	7.6
114.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	Redskins	7.5
115.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Ravens	7.3
116.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Cardinals	7.2
117.	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Chiefs	Redskins	7.2
118.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Titans	7.2
119.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Seahawks	7.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	Jaguars	7.2
121.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Seahawks	7.2
122.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	Bills	7.1
123.	Louis Murphy	WR	Raiders	Eagles	7.1
124.	Seahawks	DEF		Cardinals	7.1
125.	Muhsin Muhammad	WR	Panthers	Buccaneers	7.0
126.	Steelers	DEF		Browns	6.9
127.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	Vikings	6.9
128.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Jets	Bills	6.8
129.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Falcons	6.8
130.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	Chiefs	6.8
131.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Jets	6.7
132.	Jason Avant	WR	Eagles	Raiders	6.7
133.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Lions	6.7
134.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	Cardinals	6.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Vikings	DEF		Ravens	6.6
136.	Eagles	DEF		Raiders	6.6
137.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Vikings	6.6
138.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Saints	6.6
139.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Giants	6.6
140.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	Eagles	6.5
141.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Bears	6.5
142.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Vikings	6.5
143.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Seahawks	6.4
144.	Bengals	DEF		Texans	6.4
145.	LenDale White	RB	Titans	Patriots	6.4
146.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Giants	6.4
147.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	Patriots	6.4
148.	Antwaan Randle El	WR	Redskins	Chiefs	6.3
149.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	Rams	6.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Bernard Berrian	WR	Vikings	Ravens	6.2
151.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Falcons	6.1
152.	Dennis Northcutt	WR	Lions	Packers	6.1
153.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Eagles	6.1
154.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	Patriots	6.0
155.	Patriots	DEF		Titans	5.9
156.	Jermichael Finley	TE	Packers	Lions	5.9
157.	Keenan Burton	WR	Rams	Jaguars	5.9
158.	Billy Cundiff	K	Browns	Steelers	5.9
159.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Browns	5.8
160.	Panthers	DEF		Buccaneers	5.8
161.	Chiefs	DEF		Redskins	5.8
162.	Mark Bradley	WR	Chiefs	Redskins	5.7
163.	Jaguars	DEF		Rams	5.6
164.	Shane Andrus	K	Buccaneers	Panthers	5.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Lions	Packers	5.5
166.	Jets	DEF		Bills	5.5
167.	Chris Henry	WR	Bengals	Texans	5.5
168.	Packers	DEF		Lions	5.5
169.	Rashad Jennings	RB	Jaguars	Rams	5.5
170.	Jerious Norwood	RB	Falcons	Bears	5.4
171.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	Packers	5.4
172.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Jaguars	5.3
173.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Panthers	5.3
174.	Redskins	DEF		Chiefs	5.2
175.	Falcons	DEF		Bears	5.2
176.	Willis McGahee	RB	Ravens	Vikings	5.2
177.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	Bengals	5.2
178.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Titans	5.1
179.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	Eagles	5.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Broncos	DEF		Chargers	5.1
181.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	Redskins	5.0
182.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Raiders	5.0
183.	Chester Taylor	RB	Vikings	Ravens	4.9
184.	Lions	DEF		Packers	4.9
185.	Bobby Wade	WR	Chiefs	Redskins	4.9
186.	Cardinals	DEF		Seahawks	4.9
187.	Bills	DEF		Jets	4.9
188.	Shonn Greene	RB	Jets	Bills	4.8
189.	Buccaneers	DEF		Panthers	4.8
190.	Daniel Fells	TE	Rams	Jaguars	4.8
191.	Jabar Gaffney	WR	Broncos	Chargers	4.8
192.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	Texans	4.7
193.	Browns	DEF		Steelers	4.7
194.	Chris Cooley	TE	Redskins	Chiefs	4.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Giants	4.6
196.	Marcedes Lewis	TE	Jaguars	Rams	4.6
197.	Ravens	DEF		Vikings	4.3
198.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	Jets	4.3
199.	Julian Edelman	WR	Patriots	Titans	4.3
200.	Donald Lee	TE	Packers	Lions	4.3

 

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TE, all TDs are six points, each 25 yards passing are one point, interceptions are minus two points, fumbles lost are minus two points, each 10 yards receiving areone point and two-point conversions are two points. For kickers, all extra points are one point and all field goals are at least three points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards. Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not inlcuded in overall rankings) earn one point for each solo tackle, one point for each sack, two points for each interception and six points for each touchdown. Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete gainst others in the SimLeagues.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

WhatIfSports NFL Power Rankings: Week Six

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic, and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. All rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

 

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PF/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	–	80.2%	28.4	15.6
2.	New York Giants	+1	76.1%	27.8	17.3
3.	Indianapolis Colts	-1	76.1%	25.7	16.5
4.	Minnesota Vikings	+1	72.5%	26.0	18.1
5.	Philadelphia Eagles	+9	69.3%	26.1	19.0
6.	Pittsburgh Steelers	+3	66.1%	24.7	19.0
7.	Atlanta Falcons	+10	64.4%	23.9	19.8
8.	Baltimore Ravens	-2	63.6%	24.2	18.6
9.	Cincinnati Bengals	+6	62.3%	22.4	18.0
10.	Denver Broncos	+3	62.0%	21.7	16.8
11.	San Diego Chargers	+1	60.5%	26.1	22.3
12.	New York Jets	-2	57.6%	20.6	18.2
13.	San Francisco 49ers	-6	56.5%	21.3	20.0
14.	New England Patriots	-10	56.0%	21.0	19.2
15.	Seattle Seahawks	+5	55.1%	20.7	19.2
16.	Green Bay Packers	+3	53.7%	23.7	22.5
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PF/G	PA/G
17.	Dallas Cowboys	-9	53.2%	25.1	23.4
18.	Arizona Cardinals	-2	49.8%	21.7	21.1
19.	Chicago Bears	-1	48.2%	21.2	21.8
20.	Houston Texans	+3	45.4%	23.3	24.9
21.	Miami Dolphins	+1	43.2%	19.1	21.4
22.	Tennessee Titans	-1	40.6%	19.6	23.4
23.	Jacksonville Jaguars	-12	38.7%	19.6	23.0
24.	Buffalo Bills	+2	33.1%	18.8	25.6
25.	Carolina Panthers	-1	32.4%	17.8	24.6
26.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+5	30.8%	18.5	26.3
27.	Washington Redskins	-2	30.8%	16.6	23.3
28.	Detroit Lions	+2	30.3%	16.6	23.5
29.	Cleveland Browns	-1	29.2%	16.1	23.7
30.	Kansas City Chiefs	-1	23.2%	13.0	24.7
31.	Oakland Raiders	-4	23.1%	14.0	26.8
32.	St. Louis Rams	–	16.0%	14.6	27.3

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 5 NFL Picks

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: #17 Atlanta 17 @ #7 San Francisco 23

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here. Week Five of the NFL season provides quite the interesting schedule. More than one-third of our 14 projected games see the favorite winning by more than 80% of the time and three of our four closest projected matchups lack teams with winning records. Atlanta @ San Francisco is a exception to that trend. Bolstered by a defense that scored three touchdowns last week, the San Francisco 49ers bounced back from another Brett Favre miracle toss to shut out the St. Louis Rams. Atlanta has had an extra week to forget about a loss to New England – its only blemish of the young season – and to prepare for the 49ers, while the Falcons begin what is probably the toughest four-week stretch on their schedule (@SF, vs. CHI, @DAL, @NO).

The shutout boosted San Francisco’s defense to second in the NFL in points allowed, giving up less than 14 points a game. Both the 49ers and Falcons have each given up 53 points, but Atlanta has played one less game. Led by linebacker Patrick Willis, who had eight tackles, 2.5 sacks, an interception returned for a touchdown and three QB hurries in Week 4, the 49ers are giving up just 5.9 yards-per-pass-attempt, just 3.1 yards-per-rush and just 4.4 yards-per-play. The defense has more than made up for a mostly stagnant offense quarterbacked by Shaun Hill (sadly now without the moustache seen above). Most impressively, San Francisco has put up those defensive numbers, which also includes five INTs to just four passing TDs, against veteran quarterbacks Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck and Brett Favre. Now the 49ers defense will be tested by second-year quarterback Matt Ryan. In a schedule that has included Miami and Carolina prior to New England, Ryan has completed 65.9% of his passes and is averaging more than seven yards-per-pass-attempt, while throwing 5 TDs to just a single INT. Ryan has done his best to make up for a lackluster running game – Michael Turner is going just 3.5 yards per carry – and a run-of-the-mill defense that is giving up 5.6 yards per play.

In what should be an fantastic clash of offense vs. defense, the defensive-minded home 49ers win 61.5% of the time by an average score of 23-17. As can be noted in the projected boxscore, the 49ers just a 2.5 point favorite, they cover that spread 59.1% of the time. The total line is 41, giving the under the edge – but it’s a very weak one. The under wins just 55.5% of the time and the teams score exactly 41 4.3% of the time.

San Francisco may win – on average, by a pair of field goals – but the statistical numbers come out eerily similar right down to kick and punt returns. The 49ers average just one more first down, four more rushing yards and six more passing yards than the Falcons. The computer likes Atlanta to take care of the ball against San Francisco’s menacing defense. The group that scored on all three takeaways one week ago is not likely to force a single turnover.

Still, it’s that defense that wins out in a battle that could certainly have playoff implications three months from now.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here. Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

NFL Week 5
Oakland @ New York Giants	89.4	10-27	Boxscore
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia	82.0	12-25	Boxscore
Houston @ Arizona	65.6	22-29	Boxscore
Cincinnati @ Baltimore	63.6	17-23	Boxscore
Atlanta @ San Francisco	61.5	17-23	Boxscore
Washington @ Carolina	59.0	18-22	Boxscore
Cleveland @ Buffalo	54.8	20-24	Boxscore
Jacksonville @ Seattle	39.8	23-21	Boxscore
New England @ Denver	37.6	18-17	Boxscore
New York Jets @ Miami	34.2	21-17	Boxscore
Dallas @ Kansas City	21.6	23-15	Boxscore
Indianapolis @ Tennessee	18.7	27-18	Boxscore
Pittsburgh @ Detroit	17.5	26-16	Boxscore
Minnesota @ St. Louis	14.8	24-14	Boxscore

Other Notable Games in Week 5
Few thought that the Denver Broncos could start the season 4-0. Many did not expect them to win five games overall (we had them at 2-2 through four weeks and 5-11 overall in our pre-season AFC West preview). But do not put it past the Broncos to reach that five-win mark this week when Josh McDaniel faces his former New England Patriots team for the first time. The host Broncos certainly aren’t the favorites in Vegas or the computer, but the latter has Denver moving to 5-0 37.6% of the time, losing on average just 18-17 and the underdogs beating the three-point spread more than half the time. In a low-scoring struggle, the teams go under the total of 41.5 nearly 75% of the time.

The team that has seemingly been “on the verge” of making the playoffs for the past few years? Or the team that was not only a surprise in making it there but advanced all the way to the Super Bowl a year ago? Houston, at 2-2, and Arizona, 1-2, each need to win this week’s game badly. The host Cardinals get back in the playoff chase by winning 65.6% of the time by an average score of 29-22. Matt Schaub edges Warner, but the 2008 runners-up win out thanks to a big day from the rushing duo of Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells and from prolific receiver Larry Fitzgerald in the highest-scoring game of the week.

Other Notable Names in Week 5
After just four rushing yards in his 2009 debut last week, the computer expects a solid breakout game from previously-suspended Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch. He gets fewer carries than Fred Jackson, but Lynch averages nearly 40 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards in a game against the winless Cleveland Browns. For the Bills, this game may look easier at first glance than the numbers suggest. The host Bills win less than 55% of the time and beat the 6-point spread at just a 36.4% clip.

The computer is not completely sold on Peyton Manning to advance his streak of 300-yard passing games to five straight contests, but it does like a big game from the Colts’ QB. Manning, our top overall fantasy football performer for Week 5, averages nearly 275 yards and more than two touchdowns in 10,000 simulations against winless Tennessee. The Titans get their first win of the year just 18.7% of the time and beat the 3.5 point spread less than 31% of the time.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Three NFL Picks

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

 

Game of the Week: 49ers 19 @ Vikings 23

Week Three’s only game featuring two undefeated teams includes two top-10 teams in our latest NFL power rankings.

While we still like Arizona as the best team in the NFC West, San Francisco is a serious playoff contender (that has two division wins already) with a strong, tough defense and impressive running game.

The 49ers will travel to Minnesota to face another team with those attributes that is just as hungry to go 3-0. The Vikings will be playing in their home opener, so the Minnesota fans are guaranteed to be rowdy for this marquee NFL game.

In the projected boxscore, Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson are both more likely than not to score touchdowns. Shaun Hill completes 16-of-25 passes for 183 yards, 1.2 TDs and 0.8 interceptions. In a similar effort, Brett Favre completes 16-of-26 pass attempts for 193 yards, 1.2 TDs and 0.9 interceptions.

The team stats in this game are almost mirror images of each other. The Vikings only discernible advantages, besides homefield, is that they rush for eight more yards on two less caries to outgain the 49ers by 0.5 yards-per-carry.

Otherwise, this is a very even matchup.

Minnesota wins and stays undefeated 59.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 23-19.

The Vikings are full touchdown favorites though, so they only cover the spread 41.1 percent of the time. The 49ers win against the spread 55.1 percent of the time (Vikings win by exactly seven 3.8 percent of the time).

The total line is 40.5, making the Over the better option, yet a very weak play as it is just 52.8 percent likely.

Last week, we correctly predicted all of our featured games including the Upset, Lock, and Game of the week. We actually hit all three of our projected upsets (ARI over JAX, OAK over KC and NYJ over NE) and went 67 percent against the spread.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

NFL Week 3
Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Cleveland @ Baltimore	88.4	14-30	Boxscore
Carolina @ Dallas	76.1	16-27	Boxscore
Jacksonville @ Houston	75.7	17-27	Boxscore
Tennessee @ New York Jets	74.1	13-23	Boxscore
Kansas City @ Philadelphia	73.0	16-26	Boxscore
Miami @ San Diego	67.3	21-28	Boxscore
San Francisco @ Minnesota	59.1	19-23	Boxscore
Indianapolis @ Arizona	56.7	24-27	Boxscore
Atlanta @ New England	56.1	20-24	Boxscore
Denver @ Oakland	43.3	22-20	Boxscore
Chicago @ Seattle	37.9	17-15	Boxscore
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati	37.9	20-18	Boxscore
Washington @ Detroit	29.6	21-15	Boxscore
Green Bay @ St. Louis	26.8	25-19	Boxscore
New Orleans @ Buffalo	16.7	33-22	Boxscore
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay	13.2	27-14	Boxscore

 

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Eagles on Top of Our Latest NFL Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation engine to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team.

All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. All rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of August 26, 2009.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Philadelphia Eagles	–	73.4	25.4	16.7
2.	Pittsburgh Steelers	–	69.4	22.2	15.6
3.	New England Patriots	–	69.1	26.7	19.7
4.	Minnesota Vikings	–	67.4	27.5	21.5
5.	Miami Dolphins	–	66.5	24.5	18.6
6.	New York Giants	–	65.2	24.3	18.6
7.	Arizona Cardinals	–	64.1	25.2	20.5
8.	Dallas Cowboys	–	63.8	26.2	21.3
9.	San Diego Chargers	–	61.8	25.5	21.4
10.	Houston Texans	–	60.8	26.2	22.2
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
11.	New York Jets	–	59.8	22.6	19.0
12.	Washington Redskins	–	57.9	20.1	17.1
13.	New Orleans Saints	–	56.1	26.3	24.2
14.	Tennessee Titans	–	55.5	22.9	21.1
15.	Atlanta Falcons	–	53.3	24.9	23.9
16.	Indianapolis Colts	–	50.7	23.9	23.7
17.	Green Bay Packers	–	50.1	22.5	22.3
18.	San Francisco 49ers	–	49.9	21.8	21.8
19.	Carolina Panthers	–	49.8	24.3	24.4
20.	Baltimore Ravens	–	49.1	21.1	21.4
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
21.	Cincinnati Bengals	–	46.9	22.2	23.6
22.	Buffalo Bills	–	45.2	23.5	24.9
23.	Chicago Bears	–	44.0	20.5	22.8
24.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	–	37.2	21.8	26.3
25.	Seattle Seahawks	–	36.2	19.0	23.7
26.	Oakland Raiders	–	32.2	21.3	27.3
27.	Denver Broncos	–	32.0	22.5	29.1
28.	Detroit Lions	–	28.8	20.4	28.0
29.	Kansas City Chiefs	–	28.6	18.4	25.9
30.	St. Louis Rams	–	26.6	19.5	28.2
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
31.	Jacksonville Jaguars	–	26.6	19.2	26.8
32.	Cleveland Browns	–	21.9	18.7	29.2

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Who Should You Draft? Check Out Our 2009 Fantasy Football Projections

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football. Each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the averages of those games being our final predicted outcome. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 11, 2009. Information on scoring and injury analysis appears at the bottom of this article.

Go to WhatifSports.com to see positional breakdowns and other Fantasy Football simulation analysis. Good luck this season!

	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
1.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	16	324.4
2.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	16	297.5
3.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	16	291.9
4.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	16	285.2
5.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	15	280.6
6.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	15	264.4
7.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	14	263.0
8.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	16	252.7
9.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	15	251.5
10.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	15	249.2
11.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	16	244.2
12.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	15	241.8
13.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	15	239.8
14.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	14	238.9
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
15.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	13	234.9
16.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	16	234.8
17.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	15	234.3
18.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	16	232.7
19.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	15	230.4
20.	Trent Edwards	QB	Bills	14	229.3
21.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	16	226.6
22.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	14	225.6
23.	Steelers	DEF		16	224.4
24.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	13	221.9
25.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	15	221.4
26.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	13	220.7
27.	Ronnie Brown	RB	Dolphins	14	219.9
28.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	16	215.2
29.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	16	215.0
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
30.	Brian Westbrook	RB	Eagles	13	210.6
31.	Kerry Collins	QB	Titans	15	209.3
32.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	15	204.1
33.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	11	203.5
34.	Clinton Portis	RB	Redskins	14	202.2
35.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	16	201.1
36.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	15	197.2
37.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	16	194.3
38.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	16	194.1
39.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	16	191.2
40.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	16	191.1
41.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	15	190.7
42.	Darren McFadden	RB	Raiders	14	189.4
43.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	16	189.0
44.	Matthew Stafford	QB	Lions	14	185.3
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
45.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	15	185.1
46.	Tarvaris Jackson	QB	Vikings	12	182.8
47.	Eagles	DEF		16	181.3
48.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	15	176.8
49.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	16	174.8
50.	Ravens	DEF		16	174.5
51.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	16	174.4
52.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	14	173.5
53.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	16	172.4
54.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	13	172.3
55.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	14	169.9
56.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	16	168.0
57.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	16	166.2
58.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	13	165.0
59.	Titans	DEF		16	164.5
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
60.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	15	163.6
61.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	15	157.3
62.	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Chiefs	16	157.1
63.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	15	156.0
64.	Larry Johnson	RB	Chiefs	13	154.1
65.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	16	153.6
66.	Brady Quinn	QB	Browns	12	153.1
67.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	15	152.7
68.	Giants	DEF		16	152.1
69.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	15	150.8
70.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	13	150.6
71.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	13	149.5
72.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	15	149.4
73.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	15	148.0
74.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Browns	13	146.4
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
75.	Leon Washington	RB	Jets	14	144.4
76.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	16	144.0
77.	Chad Pennington	QB	Dolphins	11	143.4
78.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	16	141.9
79.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	14	141.8
80.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	16	140.9
81.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	14	140.2
82.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	16	140.1
83.	Bernard Berrian	WR	Vikings	14	140.1
84.	Jeff Garcia	QB	Raiders	13	139.9
85.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	16	139.8
86.	Marc Bulger	QB	Rams	12	139.5
87.	Jerious Norwood	RB	Falcons	16	138.7
88.	Earnest Graham	RB	Buccaneers	12	138.4
89.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	14	137.8
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
90.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	13	137.8
91.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	16	137.7
92.	Garrett Hartley	K	Saints	16	137.2
93.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	15	136.9
94.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	16	136.4
95.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	16	136.3
96.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	16	135.2
97.	Adam Vinatieri	K	Colts	16	135.1
98.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	12	134.3
99.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	16	134.2
100.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	16	134.2
101.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	14	134.1
102.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	13	134.0
103.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	16	133.8
104.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	13	132.9
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
105.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	16	132.8
106.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	16	132.7
107.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	16	131.3
108.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	16	130.3
109.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	16	129.7
110.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	16	129.3
111.	David Akers	K	Eagles	16	128.7
112.	Patriots	DEF		16	128.6
113.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	16	128.3
114.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	14	127.5
115.	Laveranues Coles	WR	Bengals	15	126.8
116.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	15	126.3
117.	Willie Parker	RB	Steelers	13	126.1
118.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	16	126.0
119.	Cowboys	DEF		16	126.0
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
120.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	16	126.0
121.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	16	125.3
122.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	14	125.1
123.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	16	124.6
124.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	14	124.0
125.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	16	123.4
126.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	16	123.3
127.	Antonio Bryant	WR	Buccaneers	13	122.8
128.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	15	122.6
129.	Sammy Morris	RB	Patriots	13	122.6
130.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	16	122.6
131.	Nate Washington	WR	Titans	16	121.6
132.	Peyton Hillis	RB	Broncos	14	121.4
133.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	16	121.2
134.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	16	121.0
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
135.	Redskins	DEF		16	120.8
136.	Dolphins	DEF		16	120.3
137.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	16	119.9
138.	Jets	DEF		16	118.4
139.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	15	118.0
140.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	16	118.0
141.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	16	117.1
142.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	15	117.0
143.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	16	116.6
144.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	16	116.4
145.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	15	116.2
146.	Cardinals	DEF		16	116.0
147.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	16	114.6
148.	Danny Ware	RB	Giants	16	114.3
149.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	15	113.8
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
150.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	14	113.5
151.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	11	113.0
152.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	16	113.0
153.	Colts	DEF		16	112.9
154.	Justin Gage	WR	Titans	16	112.3
155.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	16	111.4
156.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	16	111.1
157.	Luke McCown	QB	Buccaneers	9	110.0
158.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	13	109.8
159.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	16	109.4
160.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	16	109.0
161.	Ted Ginn Jr.	WR	Dolphins	14	108.9
162.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	13	108.9
163.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	16	108.8
164.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	16	108.3
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
165.	Vikings	DEF		16	108.3
166.	Brian Leonard	RB	Bengals	16	107.9
167.	Chargers	DEF		16	106.3
168.	Anthony Gonzalez	WR	Colts	16	105.8
169.	Josh Morgan	WR	49ers	16	105.4
170.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	16	105.1
171.	Lance Moore	WR	Saints	14	104.9
172.	Matt Bryant	K	Buccaneers	16	102.2
173.	Fred Taylor	RB	Patriots	12	101.5
174.	Phil Dawson	K	Browns	16	100.8
175.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	16	99.9
176.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	14	98.9
177.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	15	98.1
178.	Domenik Hixon	WR	Giants	14	97.4
179.	Owen Daniels	TE	Texans	15	96.8
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
180.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	16	96.2
181.	Bears	DEF		16	96.2
182.	Shaun Hill	QB	49ers	6	96.1
183.	Shonn Greene	RB	Jets	16	96.0
184.	Texans	DEF		16	96.0
185.	Panthers	DEF		16	95.5
186.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	12	95.5
187.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	15	94.8
188.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	16	93.2
189.	Muhsin Muhammad	WR	Panthers	16	92.7
190.	Le’Ron McClain	RB	Ravens	15	92.0
191.	James Davis	RB	Browns	16	91.8
192.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	16	91.8
193.	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Raiders	7	91.0
194.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	13	90.7
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
195.	T.J. Duckett	RB	Seahawks	16	90.1
196.	Mike Goodson	RB	Panthers	16	89.1
197.	Chaz Schilens	WR	Raiders	16	88.7
198.	Packers	DEF		16	87.5
199.	Maurice Morris	RB	Lions	13	87.2
200.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	11	87.1
201.	Chris Cooley	TE	Redskins	15	86.7
202.	Chris Wells	RB	Cardinals	10	85.9
203.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	16	83.6
204.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	13	83.5
205.	Ladell Betts	RB	Redskins	14	83.4
206.	Mewelde Moore	RB	Steelers	14	83.4
207.	Falcons	DEF		16	82.4
208.	49ers	DEF		16	82.1
209.	Jermichael Finley	TE	Packers	16	81.3
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
210.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	14	80.8
211.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	16	80.3
212.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	16	78.9
213.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	13	77.9
214.	Chester Taylor	RB	Vikings	16	77.0
215.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	15	77.0
216.	Tony Scheffler	TE	Broncos	14	76.8
217.	Saints	DEF		16	76.5
218.	Jason Wright	RB	Cardinals	16	76.5
219.	Byron Leftwich	QB	Buccaneers	12	75.5
220.	Chris Chambers	WR	Chargers	13	74.6
221.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	14	74.4
222.	Jerome Harrison	RB	Browns	16	73.2
223.	Bobby Wade	WR	Vikings	16	72.7
224.	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	Vikings	16	72.7
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
225.	Jordy Nelson	WR	Packers	16	72.1
226.	Dan Orlovsky	QB	Texans	16	71.6
227.	Buccaneers	DEF		16	71.5
228.	Seahawks	DEF		16	71.3
229.	Bills	DEF		16	71.2
230.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	16	70.7
231.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	14	70.5
232.	Mark Bradley	WR	Chiefs	12	70.4
233.	Martellus Bennett	TE	Cowboys	13	70.1
234.	Raiders	DEF		16	69.9
235.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	13	69.7
236.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	16	69.6
237.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	16	67.9
238.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	14	67.6
239.	Kenneth Darby	RB	Rams	16	66.3
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
240.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	16	65.7
241.	Devin Thomas	WR	Redskins	16	65.1
242.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	10	64.7
243.	Dominic Rhodes	RB	Bills	16	64.7
244.	LenDale White	RB	Titans	13	64.5
245.	Willis McGahee	RB	Ravens	11	63.3
246.	Todd Heap	TE	Ravens	13	62.5
247.	Mike Walker	WR	Jaguars	12	62.2
248.	Kevin Curtis	WR	Eagles	12	62.1
249.	Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR	Raiders	14	61.4
250.	Jackie Battle	RB	Chiefs	16	61.3
251.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	14	60.8
252.	Chansi Stuckey	WR	Jets	16	60.6
253.	Jaguars	DEF		16	59.4
254.	Bengals	DEF		16	59.0
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
255.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	16	58.6
256.	Anthony Fasano	TE	Dolphins	16	58.6
257.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	14	58.4
258.	Sage Rosenfels	QB	Vikings	9	58.2
259.	Dennis Northcutt	WR	Lions	14	58.0
260.	Glen Coffee	RB	49ers	15	57.9
261.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	13	57.7
262.	Pat White	QB	Dolphins	13	57.7
263.	Laurent Robinson	WR	Rams	16	57.6
264.	Marcedes Lewis	TE	Jaguars	13	56.7
265.	Bobby Engram	WR	Chiefs	10	56.5
266.	Donald Lee	TE	Packers	15	55.4
267.	Jason Avant	WR	Eagles	16	55.0
268.	Brian Robiskie	WR	Browns	16	54.9
269.	Chris Simms	QB	Broncos	16	54.8
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
270.	Rashad Jennings	RB	Jaguars	16	54.7
271.	Ryan Moats	RB	Texans	12	53.8
272.	Deion Branch	WR	Seahawks	12	52.9
273.	Isaac Bruce	WR	49ers	16	52.7
274.	Javon Walker	WR	Raiders	10	52.5
275.	Jarett Dillard	WR	Jaguars	16	52.0
276.	Devard Darling	WR	Chiefs	16	51.8
277.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	13	51.6
278.	Justin Harper	WR	Ravens	16	51.2
279.	Derek Anderson	QB	Browns	6	51.1
280.	Randy McMichael	TE	Rams	12	51.0
281.	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Lions	16	50.7
282.	Greg Camarillo	WR	Dolphins	13	49.6
283.	Bo Scaife	TE	Titans	16	49.1
284.	Brandon Jackson	RB	Packers	13	47.4
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
285.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	16	46.3
286.	Austin Collie	WR	Colts	16	46.2
287.	David Clowney	WR	Jets	13	45.6
288.	Mike Hart	RB	Colts	13	45.2
289.	Early Doucet	WR	Cardinals	13	45.0
290.	Keenan Burton	WR	Rams	10	44.9
291.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	13	44.8
292.	Patrick Cobbs	RB	Dolphins	16	44.5
293.	Louis Murphy	WR	Raiders	16	44.2
294.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	12	44.1
295.	Michael Robinson	RB	49ers	16	43.8
296.	Dwayne Jarrett	WR	Panthers	13	43.2
297.	Michael Clayton	WR	Buccaneers	16	42.8
298.	Sammie Stroughter	WR	Buccaneers	15	42.6
299.	Kevin Boss	TE	Giants	16	42.3
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
300.	Antwaan Randle El	WR	Redskins	15	41.7
301.	Broncos	DEF		16	41.2
302.	Chris Henry	WR	Bengals	13	41.1
303.	Billy Miller	TE	Saints	16	41.0
304.	Javon Ringer	RB	Titans	16	40.7
305.	DeShawn Wynn	RB	Packers

Who to Take and Who to Avoid, Check Out Our Fantasy Football Rankings

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football. Each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the averages of those games being our final predicted outcome.

This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 4, 2009. Information on scoring and injury analysis appears at the bottom of this article.

Go to WhatifSports.com to see positional breakdowns and other Fantasy Football simulation analysis. Good luck this season!

	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
1.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	16	321.6
2.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	16	300.6
3.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	16	287.8
4.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	16	285.7
5.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	15	281.5
6.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	14	265.1
7.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	15	261.7
8.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	16	255.4
9.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	15	255.2
10.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	15	251.2
11.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	16	250.0
12.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	15	239.7
13.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	15	239.3
14.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	16	237.1
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
15.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	15	235.7
16.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	13	233.9
17.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	14	232.6
18.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	16	228.6
19.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	16	227.9
20.	Trent Edwards	QB	Bills	14	225.9
21.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	14	225.3
22.	Steelers	DEF		16	224.2
23.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	13	223.1
24.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	15	222.1
25.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	13	221.7
26.	Ronnie Brown	RB	Dolphins	14	221.6
27.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	16	216.9
28.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	15	212.8
29.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	16	212.3
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
30.	Kerry Collins	QB	Titans	15	211.8
31.	Brian Westbrook	RB	Eagles	13	211.3
32.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	11	203.8
33.	Clinton Portis	RB	Redskins	14	203.8
34.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	16	202.1
35.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	15	197.8
36.	Darren McFadden	RB	Raiders	14	197.7
37.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	15	193.8
38.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	16	192.8
39.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	16	192.6
40.	Shaun Hill	QB	49ers	13	192.4
41.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	15	190.3
42.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	16	189.9
43.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	16	189.2
44.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	15	187.8
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
45.	Matthew Stafford	QB	Lions	14	186.6
46.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	16	185.7
47.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	16	179.1
48.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	15	178.5
49.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	14	176.2
50.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	16	175.0
51.	Ravens	DEF		16	174.7
52.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	16	173.2
53.	Eagles	DEF		16	173.1
54.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	13	171.4
55.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	14	171.2
56.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	16	170.0
57.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	16	168.7
58.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	13	165.6
59.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	15	163.8
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
60.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	15	163.2
61.	Byron Leftwich	QB	Buccaneers	12	162.9
62.	Titans	DEF		16	160.3
63.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	15	159.2
64.	Chad Pennington	QB	Dolphins	11	156.8
65.	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Chiefs	16	156.8
66.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	15	156.0
67.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	13	154.1
68.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	16	154.0
69.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	15	151.7
70.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	15	151.7
71.	Antonio Bryant	WR	Buccaneers	15	151.1
72.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	15	150.7
73.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	13	150.6
74.	Giants	DEF		16	149.8
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
75.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	16	149.1
76.	Brady Quinn	QB	Browns	12	147.2
77.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Browns	13	146.5
78.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	16	145.9
79.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	16	142.2
80.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	14	141.6
81.	Jeff Garcia	QB	Raiders	13	141.1
82.	Bernard Berrian	WR	Vikings	14	141.0
83.	Larry Johnson	RB	Chiefs	13	140.5
84.	Jerious Norwood	RB	Falcons	16	139.6
85.	Marc Bulger	QB	Rams	12	139.5
86.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	15	139.5
87.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	13	139.4
88.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	14	137.9
89.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	16	137.9
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
90.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	16	137.5
91.	Leon Washington	RB	Jets	14	137.2
92.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	13	136.6
93.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	16	136.4
94.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	16	136.3
95.	Garrett Hartley	K	Saints	16	135.2
96.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	16	135.1
97.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	16	135.0
98.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	14	134.7
99.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	16	134.3
100.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	16	134.1
101.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	16	134.0
102.	Adam Vinatieri	K	Colts	16	133.2
103.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	16	133.2
104.	Earnest Graham	RB	Buccaneers	12	133.1
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
105.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	16	132.5
106.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	16	132.4
107.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	16	131.8
108.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	13	130.9
109.	David Akers	K	Eagles	16	130.1
110.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	16	129.8
111.	Willie Parker	RB	Steelers	13	128.7
112.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	16	128.5
113.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	16	128.5
114.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	16	128.2
115.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	16	127.8
116.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	14	127.5
117.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	14	127.4
118.	Patriots	DEF		16	127.2
119.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	15	127.2
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
120.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	14	127.0
121.	Tarvaris Jackson	QB	Vikings	8	126.5
122.	Sammy Morris	RB	Patriots	13	125.2
123.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	16	125.2
124.	Peyton Hillis	RB	Broncos	14	124.8
125.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	16	124.7
126.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	16	124.1
127.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	14	123.1
128.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	16	122.9
129.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	16	122.7
130.	Redskins	DEF		16	122.7
131.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	16	122.7
132.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	16	121.7
133.	Nate Washington	WR	Titans	16	121.3
134.	Cowboys	DEF		16	120.9
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
135.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	16	120.5
136.	Dolphins	DEF		16	118.8
137.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	15	118.8
138.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	15	118.6
139.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	16	118.4
140.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	16	118.0
141.	Jets	DEF		16	117.9
142.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	14	117.5
143.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	16	117.5
144.	Lance Moore	WR	Saints	15	116.7
145.	Sage Rosenfels	QB	Vikings	11	116.6
146.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	16	116.5
147.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	16	116.2
148.	Cardinals	DEF		16	116.0
149.	Laveranues Coles	WR	Bengals	15	116.0
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
150.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	15	115.6
151.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	16	114.9
152.	Danny Ware	RB	Giants	16	114.7
153.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	11	114.6
154.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	15	114.0
155.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	15	113.8
156.	Colts	DEF		16	113.5
157.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	16	112.8
158.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	14	112.3
159.	Justin Gage	WR	Titans	16	111.3
160.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	16	110.6
161.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	13	110.5
162.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	15	110.5
163.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	16	110.2
164.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	16	109.7
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
165.	Ted Ginn Jr.	WR	Dolphins	14	109.5
166.	Anthony Gonzalez	WR	Colts	16	109.2
167.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	16	108.6
168.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	16	107.9
169.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	14	105.5
170.	Matt Bryant	K	Buccaneers	16	105.2
171.	Vikings	DEF		16	105.0
172.	Chargers	DEF		16	103.7
173.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	15	103.6
174.	Fred Taylor	RB	Patriots	12	103.6
175.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	16	102.6
176.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	14	99.3
177.	Willis McGahee	RB	Ravens	11	98.9
178.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	16	97.5
179.	Domenik Hixon	WR	Giants	14	97.3
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
180.	Texans	DEF		16	96.9
181.	Jerome Harrison	RB	Browns	16	96.9
182.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	12	96.6
183.	Owen Daniels	TE	Texans	15	96.4
184.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	14	96.1
185.	Josh Morgan	WR	49ers	16	95.7
186.	Panthers	DEF		16	95.2
187.	Phil Dawson	K	Browns	16	94.0
188.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	16	93.9
189.	Bears	DEF		16	92.8
190.	T.J. Duckett	RB	Seahawks	16	92.3
191.	Muhsin Muhammad	WR	Panthers	16	92.2
192.	Chris Henry	WR	Bengals	13	92.1
193.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	14	89.9
194.	Le’Ron McClain	RB	Ravens	15	89.6
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
195.	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Raiders	7	89.1
196.	Chris Cooley	TE	Redskins	15	88.3
197.	Chris Wells	RB	Cardinals	10	88.2
198.	Shonn Greene	RB	Jets	16	86.9
199.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	16	86.8
200.	Maurice Morris	RB	Lions	13	86.5
201.	Packers	DEF		16	85.4
202.	Chester Taylor	RB	Vikings	16	85.0
203.	Mewelde Moore	RB	Steelers	14	83.8
204.	Ladell Betts	RB	Redskins	14	83.8
205.	Chaz Schilens	WR	Raiders	16	83.5
206.	Falcons	DEF		16	83.0
207.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	15	82.5
208.	49ers	DEF		16	82.3
209.	Mike Goodson	RB	Panthers	16	81.4
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
210.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	16	80.3
211.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	14	79.5
212.	Brandon Jackson	RB	Packers	13	79.2
213.	Tony Scheffler	TE	Broncos	14	78.9
214.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	16	77.8
215.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	13	77.6
216.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	14	77.3
217.	Kevin Curtis	WR	Eagles	12	76.9
218.	Jason Wright	RB	Cardinals	16	76.5
219.	Bobby Wade	WR	Vikings	16	75.4
220.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	16	74.8
221.	Chris Chambers	WR	Chargers	13	74.3
222.	Saints	DEF		16	74.3
223.	Bernard Scott	RB	Bengals	13	73.8
224.	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	Vikings	16	73.6
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
225.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	16	72.3
226.	Jordy Nelson	WR	Packers	16	72.3
227.	Dan Orlovsky	QB	Texans	16	72.2
228.	Buccaneers	DEF		16	71.7
229.	Seahawks	DEF		16	71.2
230.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	14	70.8
231.	Raiders	DEF		16	70.5
232.	Brian Robiskie	WR	Browns	16	69.4
233.	Mark Bradley	WR	Chiefs	12	68.6
234.	Bills	DEF		16	68.2
235.	James Davis	RB	Browns	16	67.2
236.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	14	66.5
237.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	13	66.3
238.	LenDale White	RB	Titans	13	66.2
239.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	16	65.9
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
240.	Kenneth Darby	RB	Rams	16	65.9
241.	Jermichael Finley	TE	Packers	16	65.9
242.	Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR	Raiders	14	65.8
243.	Deion Branch	WR	Seahawks	12	65.8
244.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	16	65.4
245.	Devin Thomas	WR	Redskins	16	64.7
246.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	10	64.4
247.	Dominic Rhodes	RB	Bills	16	64.4
248.	Martellus Bennett	TE	Cowboys	13	63.4
249.	Mike Walker	WR	Jaguars	12	63.1
250.	Kenny Watson	RB	Bengals	15	63.0
251.	Jaguars	DEF		16	60.9
252.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	14	60.8
253.	Bo Scaife	TE	Titans	16	60.4
254.	Javon Walker	WR	Raiders	10	60.2
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
255.	Dennis Northcutt	WR	Lions	14	59.3
256.	Bengals	DEF		16	58.9
257.	Todd Heap	TE	Ravens	13	58.7
258.	Marcedes Lewis	TE	Jaguars	13	57.7
259.	Anthony Fasano	TE	Dolphins	16	57.4
260.	Rashad Jennings	RB	Jaguars	16	57.3
261.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	14	57.1
262.	Kolby Smith	RB	Chiefs	14	57.0
263.	Chris Simms	QB	Broncos	16	56.7
264.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	16	56.7
265.	Bobby Engram	WR	Chiefs	10	55.9
266.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	16	55.7
267.	David Clowney	WR	Jets	13	54.8
268.	Jarett Dillard	WR	Jaguars	16	54.3
269.	Glen Coffee	RB	49ers	14	54.2
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
270.	Donald Lee	TE	Packers	15	54.0
271.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	16	53.6
272.	Ryan Moats	RB	Texans	12	53.4
273.	Michael Robinson	RB	49ers	16	52.2
274.	Devard Darling	WR	Chiefs	16	52.1
275.	Isaac Bruce	WR	49ers	15	50.9
276.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	13	50.9
277.	Patrick Cobbs	RB	Dolphins	16	50.8
278.	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Lions	16	50.8
279.	Derek Anderson	QB	Browns	6	50.2
280.	Laurent Robinson	WR	Rams	16	50.0
281.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	16	49.6
282.	Austin Collie	WR	Colts	16	48.6
283.	Randy McMichael	TE	Rams	12	48.4
284.	Greg Camarillo	WR	Dolphins	11	47.9
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
285.	Chansi Stuckey	WR	Jets	16	47.6
286.	Demetrius Williams	WR	Ravens	16	47.4
287.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	13	47.1
288.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	16	46.1
289.	Luke McCown	QB	Buccaneers	11	45.9
290.	Early Doucet	WR	Cardinals	13	45.9
291.	Keenan Burton	WR	Rams	10	45.2
292.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	12	45.1
293.	Mike Hart	RB	Colts	13	44.2
294.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	5	44.2
295.	Johnny Knox	WR	Bears	16	43.9
296.	Dwayne Jarrett	WR	Panthers	13	43.1
297.	Harry Douglas	WR	Falcons	16	43.1
298.	Antwaan Randle El	WR	Redskins	15	42.9
299.	Kevin Boss	TE	Giants	16	42.3
	Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points
300.	Kyle Boller	QB	Rams	14	41.8
301.	Javon Ringer	RB	Titans	16	41.6
302.	Michael Clayton	WR	Buccaneers	16	41.2
303.	Billy Miller	TE	Saints	16	41.0
304.	Broncos	DEF		16	40.9
305.	Todd Bouman	QB	Jaguar

What If…Would Brett Favre Improve the Minnesota Vikings?

In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Packers fan—a Packers shareholder, in fact. I don’t like talking about this story, which seems to be equal parts bizarre, “goofy,” pointlessly vindictive, and petty.

As a fan, I’ve moved on. I guess that is what he wants me to do. I try not to think about the situation or “the player.” It’s a story that I personally wish would go away, yet it is more prevalent than any story in sports.

I am also a professional spokesperson for a computer, so it does not matter what I think—just what the computer thinks.

The computer can definitively and without bias answer the question, “What would/will Brett Favre mean to the Minnesota Vikings?”

The answer: not much. The Minnesota Vikings mean a lot more to Brett Favre than Favre means to the Minnesota Vikings.

Using the same technology and approach as our 2009 NFL Preview, we simulated the upcoming season 10,000 times with Brett Favre taking every snap at quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings.

Without Favre, we simulated the 2009 season with Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels splitting time equally. Jackson is our projected starter in the playoffs. The Vikings utilize a playbook similar to last season with Jackson under center and the team running the ball about 57 percent of the time.

The Favre-less Vikings win 11.05 games on average to take the NFC North title over the Chicago Bears by 2.86 games. They are favored in 15 out of 16 games, only losing at Arizona by a score of 25-18.

Here is the Favre-less Vikings’ projected schedule:

Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Cleveland Browns	92	33-18
2	@Detroit Lions	81	28-19
3	San Francisco 49ers	60	25-20
4	Green Bay Packers	76	28-18
5	@St. Louis Rams	84	30-19
6	Baltimore Ravens	76	26-16
7	@Pittsburgh Steelers	55	18-18
8	@Green Bay Packers	70	25-20
10	Detroit Lions	86	31-16
11	Seattle Seahawks	80	26-15
12	Chicago Bears	62	22-17
13	@Arizona Cardinals	33	18-25
14	Cincinnati Bengals	75	26-17
15	@Carolina Panthers	57	23-23
16	@Chicago Bears	65	21-18
17	New York Giants	53	22-20

 

Largely due to their victory over Minnesota, the Cardinals finish ahead of the Vikings to earn the second seed in the NFC playoffs and a first round bye (Philadelphia is the top seed).

In the playoffs, Minnesota must first defeat the Giants at home before playing at Arizona. The Vikings lose to the Cardinals on the road—this time by an average score of 28-21. Minnesota is eighth in our initial 2009 NFL Power Rankings.

With Favre and a more balanced playbook, the Vikings win 11.11 games on average to win the division over the Chicago Bears by 2.84 games (the Bears are a little stronger now than a month ago). They are favored in 15 out of 16 games, only losing at Arizona by a score of 25-19. The Cardinals still finish ahead of the Vikings to earn the second seed in the NFC playoffs and a first round bye.

Here is Vikings’ projected schedule with Brett Favre:

Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Cleveland Browns	93	33-16
2	@Detroit Lions	80	30-21
3	San Francisco 49ers	60	25-19
4	Green Bay Packers	74	27-18
5	@St. Louis Rams	83	30-19
6	Baltimore Ravens	74	27-20
7	@Pittsburgh Steelers	51	18-18
8	@Green Bay Packers	71	26-21
10	Detroit Lions	87	34-17
11	Seattle Seahawks	82	28-16
12	Chicago Bears	53	25-20
13	@Arizona Cardinals	31	19-25
14	Cincinnati Bengals	80	28-16
15	@Carolina Panthers	63	26-24
16	@Chicago Bears	67	24-23
17	New York Giants	53	24-23

 

Essentially the same postseason result occurs, where the Vikings earn the third spot in the NFC Playoffs, defeat the Giants, and then lose in Arizona. Minnesota does leap over the Saints to place seventh in the NFL Power Rankings with Favre.

Brett Favre is worth 0.05 wins to the Minnesota Vikings. Against some teams, Minnesota improves. Against others—typically those more adept at forcing turnovers—the Vikings are not as successful.

They may be the same in terms of wins and losses, but statistically, these are two different teams. The Favre-less Vikings score 25.3 points per game and allow 18.6. They throw for 2,869 yards, 22 TDs, and 10 interceptions and rush for 2,665 yards and 22 TDs.

With Favre, the Vikings score 26.4 points per game and allow 19.7. Favre throws for 3,460 yards, 26 TDs, and 15 interceptions, while the team rushes for 2,355 yards and 20 TDs.

The strength of this team is in its ability to run and stop the run. Adrian Peterson is approaching the prime of his career and should be a perennial MVP candidate. Chester Taylor and rookie Percy Harvin will also provide explosiveness out of the backfield. The offensive line is among the league’s best.

Throwing more often may score a few extra points, but it is going to hurt a strong, yet thin defense and will lead to more turnovers. Even if the team runs the same amount as our original projection, the Vikings’ turnover rate will still go up due to Favre’s presence.

For Minnesota, according to our simulations, Favre does not appear to be worth it. The team does not need a great quarterback to succeed—and Favre is not a great quarterback any more anyway. Plus, last season, Tarvaris Jackson appeared to turn the corner with regards to decision making and limiting interceptions.

Would it be worth it to Favre to come into Minnesota and win a division over his former Packers? The computer does not know the answer to that question. He would likely get far more credit than he should for the projected one-game improvement over last season and the 0.05 win improvement over the current roster. That may make him happy.

In five years, though (or six, or seven, or 10), when Favre is eligible for the Hall of Fame and makes it in on the first ballot for what could have been the most attended induction ceremony ever, Vikings fans are not going to show. Jets fans are not going to be there either. And there will be far fewer Packers fans in attendance than there would have been.

I know one who won’t make the trip. I’ve moved on.

 

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete against others in the SimLeagues.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive. With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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