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NFL Playoff Predictions

Published: June 22, 2009

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To finalize our 2009 NFL Preview, we present final standings, leaders, award winners and playoff results.

As part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football, each regular season and playoff game is simulated 10,000 times. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 9. A schedule of the 2009 NFL preview content is located here.

On Tuesday, June 23, we will also post our fantasy football cheat sheets and first NFL power rankings of the season.

Today we preview the Playoffs. We present playoff results with links to boxscores and play-by-play of each game. Boxscores are from example games with a similar result as the average outcome. Final standings, leaders and award winners follow the playoffs.

 

AFC Wild Card Games

No. 6 Houston 27 at No. 3 Indianapolis 21 (OT)—The lone divisional matchup of the playoffs is also the only overtime game. A more experienced Houston Texans team goes incuto Lucas Oil Stadium and eliminates the Colts on a 34-yard touchdown run six minutes into OT.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

No. 5 New York Jets 21 at No. 4 San Diego Chargers 24—A 28-point fourth quarter culminating in a Chris Chambers game-winning touchdown reception with 14 seconds left in the game makes for a thrilling Wild Card playoff game. LaDainian Tomlinson, who gains 163 total yards and scores a touchdown, is the key to the Chargers’ success.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

 

NFC Wild Card Games

No. 6 New York Giants 20 at No. 3 Minnesota 23—Two of our top five teams in the league face off in the first round of the playoffs. A 45-yard Ryan Longwell field goal as time expires provides the difference in Minnesota.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

No. 5 Dallas 17 at No. 4 New Orleans 30—The Saints’ prolific passing offense is too much for the Cowboys’ secondary. Tony Romo continues his poor late-season play with three interceptions.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

 

AFC Divisional Games

No. 6 Houston 14 at  No. 1 Pittsburgh 15—The Texans keep it close the whole game, but their dream season ultimately falls short against the defending Super Bowl champions when Jeff Reed connects from 27 yards in the final seconds. Reed makes five field goals in the win to put Pittsburgh back in the AFC Championship Game.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

No. 3 San Diego 27 at No. 2 New England 30—Far more points are scored in the second AFC Divisional Game, but the result is similar. The home team New England Patriots answer a last-minute game-tying Chargers touchdown with a 49-yard, game-winning field goal by Stephen Gostkowski. Tom Brady throws for 297 yards and three touchdowns in the victory.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

 

NFC Divisional Games

No. 4 New Orleans 20 at No. 1 Philadelphia 27—The Eagles erase a three-point halftime deficit by outscoring New Orleans 13-3 after the break. Philadelphia is guaranteed home field advantage in the NFC Championship against Arizona or Minnesota.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

No. 3 Minnesota 21 at No. 2 Arizona 28—The Vikings fail to avenge their biggest loss (and only game in which they are the underdogs) from the season. Arizona’s win sets up a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game. Kurt Warner lights up Minnesota for 284 yards and three touchdowns on 26-of-35 passing.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

 

Conference Championship Games

No. 2 New England 20 at No. 1 Pittsburgh 17—After an injury-plagued 2008, Tom Brady and the Patriots are back in the Super Bowl. New England goes into Pittsburgh to get a tough playoff road win. Brady is incredibly efficient against the vaunted Steelers defense, with no turnovers and only five incomplete passes on 23 attempts.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

No. 2 Arizona 17 at No. 1 Philadelphia 28—The Eagles exact revenge from last season with a big home win in the NFC Championship Game. Philadelphia again comes back from a halftime deficit to win convincingly.

In a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX, Tom Brady and Donovan McNabb will square off for the title. Both quarterbacks have better weapons so expect a shootout.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

 

Super Bowl XLIV

Philadelphia 34 vs. New England 31—E-A-G-L-E-S, Eagles! Andy Reid works his magic at halftime for the third straight playoff game, leading Philadelphia out of a hole to win the Super Bowl.

Young weapons prove the difference in this example game as rookies LeSean McCoy and Cornelius Ingram both score touchdowns. Interestingly, Tom Brady’s performance is enough to earn him the MVP award in the losing effort. Brady completes 25-of-40 passes for 279 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.

It’s not enough to win the game however. Brady gets a chance to lead the team to victory on the Patriots’ final drive. Trailing 33-30 with 1:21 remaining and the ball on their own 34, Brady helps New England pick up 37 yards in less than a minute.

Facing a fourth and four with 33 seconds to go, another Philadelphia rookie, defensive back Victor “Macho” Harris, blitzes from the blind side and gets to the frantic quarterback before he can release the ball. Brian Westbrook totals 93 yards and two touchdowns and McNabb throws for 297 yards and two touchdowns for the victorious Eagles.

Click to view boxscore with play-by-play.

 

Regular Season Awards

NFL MVP: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings—328 rushes, 1,644 rushing yards, 15 total TDs; 2) Tom Brady; 3) Drew Brees; 4) Larry Fitzgerald; 5) Peyton Manning

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—335/544, 4,183 yards, 30 TDs, 14 INTs; 2) Adrian Peterson; 3) Tom Brady; 4) Andre Johnson; 5) Larry Fitzgerald

Defensive Player of the Year: DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys—67 tackles, 15 sacks; 2) Mario Williams; 3) Troy Polamalu; 4) Jon Beason; 5) Trent Cole

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers—69 receptions, 888 receiving yards, 6 total TDs; 2) Percy Harvin; 3) Donald Brown; 4) Mark Sanchez; 5) Andre Smith

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aaron Curry, Seattle Seahawks—63 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 interceptions; 2) Louis Delmas; 3) James Laurinaitis; 4) Brian Orakpo; 5) Brian Cushing

Coach of the Year: Rex Ryan, New York Jets—In first season, Ryan leads Jets into the the playoffs with a rookie quarterback; 2) Bill Belichick; 3) Andy Reid; 4) Gary Kubiak; 5) Mike Singletary

 

Final Standings (*division winner, + wild card)

AFC East Wins Losses
New England Patriots* 11 5
New York Jets+ 9 7
Miami Dolphins 9 7
Buffalo Bills 7 9

AFC North Wins Losses
Pittsburgh Steelers* 11 5
Cincinnati Bengals 8 8
Baltimore Ravens 8 8
Cleveland Browns 3 13

AFC West Wins Losses
San Diego Chargers* 10 6
Oakland Raiders 7 9
Kansas City Chiefs 7 9
Denver Broncos 5 11

AFC South Wins Losses
Indianapolis Colts* 10 6
Houston Texans+ 9 7
Tennessee Titans 8 8
Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11

NFC East Wins Losses
Philadelphia Eagles* 12 4
Dallas Cowboys+ 9 7
New York Giants+ 9 7
Washington Redskins 9 7

NFC North Wins Losses
Minnesota Vikings* 11 5
Chicago Bears 8 8
Green Bay Packers 7 9
Detroit Lions 5 11

NFC West Wins Losses
Arizona Cardinals* 11 5
San Francisco 49ers 8 8
Seattle Seahawks 7 9
St. Louis Rams 3 13

NFC South Wins Losses
New Orleans Saints* 9 7
Atlanta Falcons 8 8
Carolina Panthers 8 8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 11

 

League Leaders

Passing (by yards) Yards TDs INTs
Drew Brees 4183 30 14
Philip Rivers 3965 26 14
Tom Brady 3901 27 13
Peyton Manning 3885 26 13
Tony Romo 3664 22 17
Kurt Warner 3522 25 12
Aaron Rodgers 3459 20 14
Donovan McNabb 3449 21 11
Trent Edwards 3282 21 17
Ben Roethlisberger 3070 18 14

Rushing (by yards) Yards AVG TDs
Adrian Peterson 1644 5.01 15
Michael Turner 1570 4.65 12
Clinton Portis 1466 4.44 11
Matt Forte 1335 3.88 11
Willie Parker 1308 4.68 13
DeAngelo Williams 1275 4.93 10
Ronnie Brown 1257 4.44 10
Frank Gore 1255 4.32 12
Ryan Grant 1208 4.03 10
Brandon Jacobs 1194 5.02 9

Receiving (by yards) Recs Yards TDs
Andre Johnson 108 1465 9
Larry Fitzgerald 92 1389 10
Calvin Johnson 81 1381 8
Greg Jennings 83 1288 6
Randy Moss 83 1283 9
Reggie Wayne 78 1283 8
Vincent Jackson 71 1164 8
Steve Smith (CAR) 69 1154 7
Wes Welker 111 1139 7
Dwayne Bowe 84 1125 6

2009 AFC South Preview

Published: June 12, 2009

commentNo Comments

We will preview an NFL division each day for eight days, before presenting final standings, fantasy and statistical leaders, award winners, playoff results and power rankings. This analysis is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 9, 2009. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is “favored” (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record.
The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog.
This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season.

For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks. All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

Today we preview the AFC South.

 

Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison are gone. Howard Mudd and Tom Moore left and then came back in lesser roles. And no veterans who will see the field were brought in. But these are still Peyton Manning’s Colts and they will still make the playoffs.

The Colts average 23.7 points per game (#7 in the NFL) and allow 20.0 points (#12) against a schedule featuring five games against teams who made the playoffs in 2008.

Absolute Record: 13-3

Most Significant Newcomer: Donald Brown, RB—Outside of the draft, the Colts signed guard Brandon Barnes, linebacker Adam Seward and two kickers in the off-season.

Clearly we have to focus on the draft for significant newcomers. Fortunately, as is often the case under Bill Polian, the Colts had a fantastic draft, placing five players in our Top 100 Impact Rookies for 2009 despite not picking until 27 in the first round.

That first round pick, Donald Brown of Connecticut, is the most impactful player of a draft class that will rely on other rookies like defensive tackle Fili Moala and wide receiver Austin Collie. Knee issues and other injuries have derailed Joseph Addai’s career to the point where he should only be serving in a complimentary role. Brown had an extremely productive college career and fits the Colts personality well.

An improved running game will only help Peyton Manning and the passing offense on play-action. This offense covets the all-around ability and injection of energy that Donald Brown will give it. While we project Addai to touch the ball a few more times (229 to 220), Brown outgains (1020 to 883 total yards) and outscores (nine touchdowns to six) Addai.

Biggest Strength: Peyton Manning—Manning will not have his head coach, favorite receiver, offensive coordinator or offensive line coach. While each of those individuals has been influential in Manning’s career, he is past the point where he needs them to succeed.

Manning is still the smartest and most accurate quarterback in the league. He is fully capable of carrying a team to a division title—and will do so in 2009.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Special Teams—The running game was last in the NFL in yards-per-carry in 2008, yet should drastically improve in 2009 with Donald Brown and more experience on the line.

The Colts were atrocious last season on special teams. In 2008, Indianapolis finished 30th in opponents net punting, 24th in opponents kick returning, 28th in kick returning, 24th in field goal percentage and dead last in the NFL in punt returning.

Losing the field position battle on special teams can put an offense in a hole that Peyton Manning may not always be able to overcome. As success on special teams is often considered a matter of coaching and effort, new head coach Jim Caldwell will need to focus on them in the offseason.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Austin Collie/Pierre Garcon, WR—The winner of the battle to be the third wide receiver behind Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez in Indianapolis will have significant fantasy value.

Right now, the two players appear to be fairly even. Collie, who made 106 catches last season playing for BYU, has sure hands and was productive at the highest level of college football. Garcon, in his second season out of D-III Mount Union, is a player the Colts seem to love who has similar physical size and tools to former Colt Marvin Harrison.

The two may split time during the season, but it is more likely that Peyton Manning becomes comfortable with one of them and that player starts all year. We just don’t know who that will be yet.

Collectively, we project the third wide receiver for the Colts to catch 68 passes for 794 yards and five touchdowns.

Closest Game: Tennessee Titans (Week 13)—This is the final game of a tough stretch that also includes the Patriots, Ravens, and two games with the Texans. After this, three of the Colts’ last four games are against teams we predict below .500.

With the Colts typically resting starters toward the end of the season, a win over the Titans may help secure the division early so Peyton can watch most of the last few games from the sideline.

Fantasy Notables (fantasy rank at position in parentheses): Peyton Manning (2) 3,885 yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs; Donald Brown (26) 1,020 total yards, 9 TDs; Joseph Addai (40) 883 total yards, 6 TDs; Reggie Wayne (5) 78 receptions, 1,243 yards, 8 TDs; Anthony Gonzalez (39) 67 receptions, 803 yards, 5 TDs; Dallas Clark (4) 57 receptions, 698 yards, 6 TDs; Adam Vinatieri (7) 41/41 XPs, 26/30 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Jacksonville Jaguars 80 29-17
2 @Miami Dolphins 51 17-19
3 @Arizona Cardinals 42 20-24
4 Seattle Seahawks 77 26-16
5 @Tennessee Titans 51 21-22
7 @St. Louis Rams 85 29-17
8 San Francisco 49ers 62 24-19
9 Houston Texans 53 25-23
10 New England Patriots 46 23-23
11 @Baltimore Ravens 55 18-18
12 @Houston Texans 48 22-25
13 Tennessee Titans 60 24-20
14 Denver Broncos 81 31-19
15 @Jacksonville Jaguars 75 25-18
16 New York Jets 54 22-19
17 @Buffalo Bills 60 23-22

 

Houston Texans (9-7)
Congratulations to the Houston Texans, who make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

Better yet, with great young players like Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Steve Slaton and even Andre Johnson just coming into their primes, Houston could be an AFC South force for years to come.

The Texans average 23.7 points per game (#6) and allow 22.0 points (#19) against a schedule featuring five games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 10-6

Most Significant Newcomer: Antonio Smith, DL—Rookies Brian Cushing and Connor Barwin are intriguing and should both end up with more impressive numbers than Antonio Smith, but Smith’s experience and versatility should be a major factor for the Texans’ defense.

Smith is a better run stopping end than he is a pass rusher, yet can move inside to play tackle in passing situations to give Barwin, who led the Big East in sacks last year in his first season focusing on defense, some additional playing time.

A rushing line of Smith, Barwin, Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye will be very scary for the opposition and should help take pressure off of what is a relatively weak secondary.

Biggest Strength: Passing Offense—A great deal of the Texans’ success is predicated on the health of Matt Schaub, who has missed five games in each of the last two seasons.

Schaub is a tremendously accurate passer, completing 66.2% of his passes as the Texans’ starting quarterback. He is aided by freakish wide receiver Andre Johnson, solid number two wideout Kevin Walter, tight end Owen Daniels and surprising receiving threat Steve Slaton.

Those four players combined to catch 295 passes for 3,713 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2008. All four and Schaub are 27 years old or younger, so they should acutally improve after another year of experience, not to mention a decent running game to open up the passing game some more.

With Schaub assumed to miss another five games due to injury—randomly chosen as Weeks 2-6—he throws for 2,777 yards, 19 TDs and 11 interceptions. Johnson finishes the year with 108 catches for 1,465 yards.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Defense/Backup QB—In the weeks that Schaub plays, Houston fans should expect shootouts. In the weeks that he does not, they should take cover.

Even though this is a playoff team, multiple weaknesses warrant discussion because they are so obvious. Dan Orlovsky and Alex Brink are Matt Schaub’s backups at quarterback. The gap between starter and backup is far too great for a team with a fragile starter.

Schaub is very likely to get hurt, so the Texans playoff chances—and their likelihood of success in the playoffs if they make it—could have a great deal to do with the timing of Schaub’s injury.

On defense, the pass-rush is upgraded and a good group of linebackers should be healthy. All the pressure will be on the secondary that gave up 7.64 yards-per-attempt last season and was not addressed in the off-season.

Houston will have to find a way to limit big plays in the passing game as it progresses into a consistent playoff team.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Steve Slaton, RB—Some prognosticators may have Steve Slaton as a first round pick in fantasy, but few have him as high as we do. Our projections of 299 touches for 1,655 yards are actually slightly lower than his production from 2008.

The 13 touchdowns in our analysis are what vault him toward the top of the overall fantasy rankings. Slaton should be “the man” in the backfield for the Texans from Week One and there are no goal-line backs/vultures around to steal his scores.

Second-year feature backs Slaton, Chris Johnson and Matt Forte are the new faces of fantasy football. Be sure to draft at least one of those guys if you can (if you can’t get Adrian Peterson).

Closest Game: @ Indianapolis Colts (Week 9)—We predict that Houston will win a berth in the playoffs as a Wild Card. To ensure success and break ties for spots in the post-season, teams must beat other teams with their division and conference.

This game is the first of four straight within the AFC South and will be a big test for a young team looking to make a stand on the road.

Fantasy Notables: Matt Schaub (16) 2,777 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs; Steve Slaton (3) 1,655 total yards, 13 TDs; Andre Johnson (1) 108 receptions, 1,465 yards, 9 TDs; Kevin Walter (33) 54 receptions, 824 yards, 6 TDs; Owen Daniels (8) 58 receptions, 678 yards, 4 TDs; Kris Brown (8) 41/41/ XPs, 27/32 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 New York Jets 57 23-19
2 @Tennessee Titans 31 18-26
3 Jacksonville Jaguars 69 27-19
4 Oakland Raiders 53 25-22
5 @Arizona Cardinals 15 15-29
6 @Cincinnati Bengals 46 20-23
7 San Francisco 49ers 61 25-19
8 @Buffalo Bills 69 25-20
9 @Indianapolis Colts 47 23-25
11 Tennessee Titans 62 26-21
12 Indianapolis Colts 52 25-22
13 @Jacksonville Jaguars 72 27-21
14 Seattle Seahawks 77 27-17
15 @St. Louis Rams 84 31-20
16 @Miami Dolphins 37 19-25
17 New England Patriots 47 24-23

 

Tennessee Titans (8-8)
No coach consistently gets more out of his players than Jeff Fisher of the Tennessee Titans.

Still, 2008 was a bit of a mirage. After losing defensive cornerstone Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins in free agency, Tennessee takes a couple steps back in 2009, finding itself out of the playoffs. The Titans average 21.2 points per game (#15) and allow 20.3 points (#13) against a schedule featuring six games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 6-10

Most Significant Newcomer: Jovan Haye, DT—Haye was signed as a free agent from Tampa Bay in the offseason. He will be asked to step in for the departed Albert Haynesworth at tackle. Haye is a decent player, but has not exhibited near the level of play of Haynesworth.

In the past, the key to Tennessee’s pass rush and ability to stop the run has been up front with tackles who can take on multiple blockers and still get into the backfield. Without a player like that, the productivity of ends Kyle Vanden Bosch, Jevon Kearse and Jacob Ford will suffer and too much pressure will be put on the linebacking corps to minimize big plays.

If Haye (or Tony Brown or Jason Jones) can consistently do that, this team could win a few more games than our projection. As it stands, the loss of Haynesworth makes a big difference.

Biggest Strength: Turnover Margin—In 2008, Tennessee finished second in the NFL with a plus-14 turnover margin, forcing 31 turnovers—also second in the league—to just 17 turnovers on offense.

Haynesworth or not, with players like Cortland Finnegan, Michael Griffin, Chris Hope and Kyle Vanden Bosch, the Titans should still be adept at forcing turnovers.

As long as 36-year-old Kerry Collins is starting at quarterback and is not required to make many plays deep, the Titans will be in good hands on offense as well. If Collins gets hurt, or the team eventually decides to go with the athleticism of Vince Young at QB, mistakes will ensue and what is now a strength—winning the turnover battle—may become a weakness.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Offense—The defense has regressed to the point that the team no longer makes the playoffs, but it still should not be considered a weakness for this team.

Instead, it is the inability of the passing offense to pose a threat to the defense that is the team’s biggest concern. While we just sang the praises of Collins and he has a strong arm, he is definitely not at his best when required to make big plays.

Last season, Tennessee finished 25th in the NFL in passing yards-per-attempt. They brought in Nate Washington from Pittsburgh and rookie Kenny Britt to address the issue and they will help, but there are still not enough explosive weapons and Collins still cannot be trusted to air it out.

The Titans don’t give up sacks or interceptions. They just struggle to move the ball and make big, game-changing plays.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Chris Johnson, RB—Tennessee has several offensive players like Nate Washington, Kenny Britt and Jared Cook who could breakout in 2009 and Johnson is the best bet to join the fantasy elite.

Johnson is a blazing-fast back who is capable of playing every down and far outshines his competition (LenDale White). Playing in 15 games, we expect Johnson to breach 300 touches with 279 rushes and 43 receptions for 1,687 total yards.

Johnson’s 2009 performance is good enough to rank him just behind fellow AFC South running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Steve Slaton as the fourth best fantasy option at this position.

Closest Game: Indianapolis Colts (Week 5)—The Titans won the division last year and would likely need to beat the Colts at home to have any hope of repeating. This game will also serve as a good test leading into a visit to New England the following week.

Fantasy Notables: Kerry Collins (18) 2,846 yards, 17 TDs, 9 INTs; Chris Johnson (4) 1,687 total yards, 13 TDs; Nate Washington (36) 56 receptions, 859 yards, 5 TDs; Kenny Britt (47) 44 receptions, 616 yards, 4 TDs; Bo Scaife (13) 47 receptions, 467 yards, 3 TDs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Pittsburgh Steelers 33 14-21
2 Houston Texans 69 26-18
3 @New York Jets 39 16-21
4 @Jacksonville Jaguars 79 25-17
5 Indianapolis Colts 49 22-21
6 @New England Patriots 34 16-24
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 78 27-16
9 @San Francisco 49ers 46 20-22
10 Buffalo Bills 62 25-19
11 @Houston Texans 38 21-26
12 Arizona Cardinals 34 19-22
13 @Indianapolis Colts 40 20-24
14 St. Louis Rams 88 31-13
15 Miami Dolphins 30 16-21
16 San Diego Chargers 45 20-20
17 @Seattle Seahawks 63 20-18

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
For so long, Jacksonville has been led by its physical defense that typically embodied the fiery spirit of head coach Jack Del Rio. In 2009, that defense disappoints, while its Del Rio’s coaching seat that is on fire.

The Jaguars average 18.7 points per game (#30) and allow 25.0 points (#28) against a schedule featuring just five games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 2-14

Most Significant Newcomer: Torry Holt, WR—The Jaguars have not had a receiver breach 800 yards since Jimmy Smith’s 1,023 yards in 2005.

Torry Holt is a decent bet to exceed that performance in 2009. However, for Holt to be an effective player for quarterback David Garrard and this offense, he must be able to reckon his “Greatest Show on Turf” days of 1999-2004 when he averaged over 14 yards-per-reception.

One hundred catches for 1,000 yards will not help this team move the ball passing or running like a receiver with game-breaking ability could. Holt will be 34 when the season starts and appears to have lost a step, so Jacksonville may have to look to Mike Walker or one of the three (short) rookie receivers (Jarrett Dillard, Tiquan Underwood or Mike Thomas) to be that guy.

If Holt can do it, this offense gets a dimension it has sorely lacked for a long time. If no one can be that guy, the offense will sputter again. The odds favor the latter.

Biggest Strength: Rushing Offense—With Fred Taylor’s release, Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars most efficient and versatile running back, is the clear number one and face of the franchise in Jacksonville.

Add in athletic and powerful upgrades at tackle through the draft in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton and 235 pound rookie RB Rashad Jennings and the Jaguars may ultimately have one of the more feared rushing attacks in the league in 2009.

In the last six games of 2008, including matchups with top NFL defenses in Baltimore and Minnesota, Jones-Drew touched the ball 113 times for 606 total yards. Over a 16-game season, that projects to 301 touches for 1,616 yards—and half of those games included a healthy Fred Taylor splitting time in the backfield with Jones-Drew.

The Jaguars as a team rush for 1,724 yards on 406 carries.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Defense—Yes, the Jaguars face Peyton Manning and Andre Johnson each twice a year, but the simulation discounts for schedule bias and still identifies the 2008 Jaguars as one of the worst defensive teams against the pass in the league.

While Jacksonville brought in Torry Holt to address its issues in the offensive passing game, Sean Considine and Marlon McCree were the off-season answers to aid the team’s defensive woes—and that was just because they lost former safeties Gerald Sensabaugh and Pierson Prioleau in free agency.

That’s actually a bit of a downgrade from 2008.

The Jaguars also let leading tackler Mike Peterson go and cut second-leading sacker Paul Spicer. While those are not big losses, the Jaguars are not in a good position to try and defend the potent air attacks like Indianapolis (twice), Houston (twice), Arizona, New England and Buffalo on its schedule.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Justin Durant, LB—Jarrett Dillard and Mike Walker are tempting to put here, but Durant has to be mentioned. Each time we ran our projections between the draft and this preview, Durant’s numbers stood out.

In 2008, he made 62 solo tackles in 14 games, mostly by filling in at middle linebacker and providing time for Mike Peterson to rest. The third-year, former second round pick from Hampton now has the spotlight to himself with Peterson gone.

The projections rank Durant among the top ten overall individual defensive players with 95 solo tackles and 134 total tackles.

Closest Game: Kansas City Chiefs (Week 9)—After winnable games at Seattle in Week Four and at home against St. Louis in Week Six, the Jaguars get a bye and then travel to Tennessee in Week Eight.

A win at the Titans is highly unlikely, but the team may be able to pull off the upset with the extra week of preparation. If that is the case, Jacksonville could need a home win against Kansas City to get to 4-4 on the year and have some hope.

Until a Week 17 game against Cleveland when the game will already be meaningless, the schedule stays tough, so the Kansas City game may not ultimately mean much, but it could be enough to keep Jack Del Rio employed until the end of the year.

Fantasy Notables: David Garrard (12) 2,731 yards, 16 TDs, 10 INTs; Maurice Jones-Drew (2) 1,788 total yards, 12 TDs; Torry Holt (24) 78 receptions, 981 yards, 5 TDs; Marcedes Lewis (15) 26 receptions, 458 yards, 2 TDs; Josh Scobee (31) 31/32 XPs; 21/28 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Indianapolis Colts 20 17-29
2 Arizona Cardinals 18 19-28
3 @Houston Texans 31 19-27
4 Tennessee Titans 21 17-25
5 @Seattle Seahawks 32 17-24
6 St. Louis Rams 65 27-19
8 @Tennessee Titans 22 16-27
9 Kansas City Chiefs 39 22-23
10 @New York Jets 18 13-25
11 Buffalo Bills 40 23-25
12 @San Francisco 49ers 27 17-26
13 Houston Texans 28 21-27
14 Miami Dolphins 36 15-18
15 Indianapolis Colts 25 18-25
16 @New England Patriots 14 13-28
17 @Cleveland Browns 63 25-23

2009 AFC West Preview

Published: June 11, 2009

commentNo Comments

We will preview an NFL division each day for eight days, before presenting final standings, fantasy and statistical leaders, award winners, playoff results and power rankings. This analysis is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 9, 2009. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is “favored” (wins more than 50 percent of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows.
We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average.
In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season. For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks.

All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

Today we preview the AFC West.

 

San Diego Chargers (10-6)

While their division lacks a serious contender and may actually be worse than it was in 2008, the San Diego Chargers are improved. A year after going 8-8 and winning the division on the last game of the season, the Charger should easily run through the West.

The Chargers average 24.8 points per game (No. 4 in the NFL) and allow 21.1 points (No. 17) against a schedule featuring five games against teams who made the playoffs in 2008.

Absolute Record: 11-5

Most Significant Newcomer: Larry English, LB – Coming off of an injury, Shawne Merriman does not count as a significant newcomer, so we will go with another athletic, 6’3″, 272 pound, outside linebacker with tremendous pass-rushing skills.

English is not only a Merriman clone, he may eventually replace the fifth-year player out of Maryland – potentially as early as next season after Merriman’s contract expires. At the very least in his rookie season, English serves as insurance for Merriman’s injury and the off-field issues of weakside linebacker Shaun Phillips.

In 2008, the Chargers lacked that intensity and intimidation that Merriman added to the defense and will improve with that back. We expect the trio of Merriman, English and Phillips to combine for 19 sacks and 154 total tackles.

Biggest Strength: Philip Rivers – Out of all of the team ratings that we use to aid the projections, the Chargers grade highest in offensive passing efficiency. In 2008, Rivers led the NFL in yards-per-attempt (8.39) and touchdowns-per-attempt (7.1%), while throwing for over 4,000 yards and turning the ball over just 11 times.

And Malcom Floyd was the Chargers third leading receiver. He is a legitimate top fantasy quarterback and has the numbers and ability to be an NFL superstar. In the last couple of seasons with Philip Rivers at the helm, San Diego has transformed from LaDainian Tomlinson and a scary, play-making defense, to about as well-rounded a team and as explosive an offense as there is in the league.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Defense – As much as I love Eric Weddle and Antonio Cromartie, the Chargers’ play-making style of defense also leaves them open to be exploited.

Some of this will change with an improved pass rush, but opponents were able to complete 67.9 percent of their passes—30th in the league—and convert 40.6 percent of their third downs—20th in the league—against the San Diego defense in 2008.

Those stats are typically related and point to an issue that the Chargers have in keeping the opposition’s offense off the field. Assuming the defense stays healthy, the sack and interception numbers will go up, but there is no guarantee that the team will improve its ability to defend the short, high-percentage passes that string together drives.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Chris Chambers, WR – Chris Chambers is a risky draft choice due to his injury history, but he is definitely someone to monitor in fantasy leagues. When healthy, Chambers is the number two wide receiver for the Chargers.

He was hurt for much of 2007 and 2008, but in the 11 games last season including the playoffs in which Chambers was on the field enough to be targeted more than once, Chambers caught 38 passes for 518 yards.

Obviously, fantasy users do not get to choose a player just when he receives multiple targets, but that would project to a respectable 55 catches for 753 yards over 16 games.

In our projections, Chambers plays 13 games and catches 43 balls for 552 yards. They are not sleepers, but this team is loaded with top-ten fantasy talent at their positions like Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Nate Kaeding and Eric Weddle.

Closest Game:@ New York Giants (Week 9) Coming off of three straight divisional matchups, the Chargers hit the road for a battle with one of the NFC’s best. This game will provide the Chargers with an idea where they rank among the NFL’s best.

Fantasy Notables (fantasy rank at position in parentheses): Philip Rivers (4) 3965 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs; LaDainian Tomlinson (6) 1,613 total yards, 13 TDs; Darren Sproles (35) 820 total yards, 9 TDs; Vincent Jackson (8) 71 receptions, 1,164 yards, 8 TDs; Chris Chambers (56) 43 receptions, 552 yards, 3 TDs; Antonio Gates (3) 76 receptions, 793 yards, 5 TDs; Nate Kaeding (1) 43/43 XPs, 28/33 FGs

Projected 2009 Results

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Oakland Raiders 67 27-23
2 Baltimore Ravens 68 25-18
3 Miami Dolphins 62 24-19
4 @Pittsburgh Steelers 38 18-23
6 Denver Broncos 70 31-22
7 @Kansas City Chiefs 70 24-20
8 Oakland Raiders 49 26-24
9 @New York Giants 47 19-22
10 Philadelphia Eagles 34 19-22
11 @Denver Broncos 69 29-23
12 Kansas City Chiefs 83 30-16
13 @Cleveland Browns 89 33-19
14 @Dallas Cowboys 40 22-27
15 Cincinnati Bengals 68 27-20
16 @Tennessee Titans 55 20-20
17 Washington Redskins 54 21-18

 

 

Oakland Raiders (7-9)

After another year of turmoil with Al Davis and Lane Kiffin publicly bickering, Tom Cable steps in as the full-time head coach. He will attempt to bring that Raiders “swagger” back to a franchise that has gone into a historical tailspin since losing the Super Bowl after the 2002 season.

After a tough start to the season, Jeff Garcia will be starting and Darren McFadden will have found his groove as the team makes a late run. The Raiders average 22 points per game (No. 12) and allow 24.8 points (No. 26) against a schedule featuring five games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 6-10

Most Significant Newcomer: Jeff Garcia, QB – Al Davis will do everything he can to make sure that his highly-paid, former No. 1 overall choice, JaMarcus Russell gets the starting job, but it definitely should be the veteran Garcia.

In each of his last three seasons, Garcia has completed greater than 60 percent of his passes for more than seven yards-per-attempted, with double-digit touchdowns and single-digit interceptions. He may not be awe-inspiring or flashy, but he can play.

We expect that head coach Tom Cable and company will not be able to last with Russell beyond the first seven games. Garcia finishes with 1,762 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions in nine games. The Raiders’ absolute record in those games is 5-4 as opposed to 1-6 otherwise.

Biggest Strength: Rushing Offense – Oakland made another shrewd move signing veteran Lorenzo Neal to pave the way for the three-headed running attack of Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush.

Neal does not have to touch the ball to be effective; everywhere he goes, teams improve significantly running the ball. Without Neal or any semblance of a passing game, Oakland finished 10th in the NFL in yards-per-rush at 4.3.

McFadden also missed three full games and was not featured as much as he should be this season. The projections see the Raiders’ RB trio increase its production to 2,141 rushing yards over 2008’s 1,773.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Rushing Defense – Unfortunately for the Raiders (and the guy pictured above), Oakland’s rush defense allowed almost half a yard more per rush than its offense gained. That’s exceptionally bad for a team that saw opponents run often to milk leads.

Furthermore, the Raiders cut sure-tackling safety Gibril Wilson. Much-discussed second round pick Michael Mitchell will have to step up for Wilson. The rest of the back seven on defense is filled with fast, athletic, yet undersized players who are much better in pass coverage than in stopping the run.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Darren McFadden, RB – McFadden is a start in the making and this should be his year. He showed last season that he can be an effective pass-catcher and should soon be trusted with every-down duties.

Justin Fargas and Michael Bush should not be significant roadblocks, yet health may. In the projections, McFadden gains 1,338 yards on about 18 touches per game in 14 games. His production is good enough to rank him ahead of DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant, Reggie Bush and others.

Closest Game: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Week 11) – From week 6-11 the Raiders have a stretch of four out of five games at home. This game is the last game of a winnable part of the schedule.

After facing the Bengals, the Raiders go to Dallas (on short rest for Thanksgiving), then Pittsburgh and home against Washington. A win over Cincinnati could be big for a team that needs as many victories before that likely losing streak.

Fantasy Notables: Jeff Garcia (25) 1,762 yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs; JaMarcus Russell (35) 1,285 yards, 7 TDs, 6 INTs; Darren McFadden (16) 1,338 total yards, 11 TDs; Justin Fargas (38) 940 total yards, 6 TDs; Darrius Heyward-Bey (51) 38 receptions, 550 yards, 4 TDs; Javon Walker (52) 42 receptions, 557 yards, 3 TDs; Zach Miller (6) 57 receptions, 690 yards, 4 TDs; Sebastian Janikowski (16) 36/37 XPs, 25/31 FGs

Projected 2009 Results

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 New York Jets 57 23-19
2 @Kansas City Chiefs 33 19-26
3 Denver Broncos 47 27-26
4 @Houston Texans 47 22-25
5 @New York Giants 17 14-28
6 Philadelphia Eagles 13 14-26
7 New York Jets 27 19-25
8 @San Diego Chargers 51 24-26
10 Kansas City Chiefs 63 28-22
11 Cincinnati Bengals 49 24-23
12 @Dallas Cowboys 35 21-28
13 @Pittsburgh Steelers 30 15-23
14 Washington Redskins 35 19-23
15 @Denver Broncos 58 28-27
16 @Cleveland Browns 80 29-21
17 Baltimore Ravens 54 24-21

 

 

Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)

Kansas City may not make the playoffs in 2009, but it takes a significant leap forward from a 2-14 season. The triumvirate of Scott Pioli, Todd Haley and Matt Cassel has a ways to go, but is making the right moves.

The Chiefs average 19.7 points per game (No. 24) and allow 23.0 points (No. 17) against a schedule featuring six games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 6-10

Most Significant Newcomer: Matt Cassel, QB – With four years of NFL experience and coming off a very efficient system with the Patriots, Cassel may sound like a safe option for the Kansas City Chiefs who are looking to rebuild under new management and a new coaching staff. That’s not necessarily the case.

Cassel has only started at quarterback in 15 games since high school and has only played in the Patriots system with a veteran offensive line and great weapons like Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Cassel should actually be viewed more as a boom or bust prospect with about equal likelihood of either.

As opposed to managing the game, Cassel will be called upon to make plays for head coach Todd Haley’s offense. The Chiefs lack weapons in the passing game and do not have a great pass-protecting line.

If we based our projections simply off of Cassel’s numbers with the Patriots, without adjusting for the talent around him (then or now) or his limited experience, the Chiefs could be in serious playoff contention in this very weak division.

We have to assume some drop-off in production and ultimately have him completing 59.2 percent of his passes for 2,968 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Given the disparity between offenses, it could be worse.

Biggest Strength: Scott Pioli, GM – We should find out rather quickly just how much Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli meant to each other in New England. I am a believer in Pioli for the simple reason that his resume includes the Patriots’ success, which means that veteran players want to play for him and young players will listen to him.

Particularly on defense, which is switching to the 3-4 from the 4-3, the Chiefs already look vastly improved under Pioli. An upgrade has also been made at quarterback. Kansas City appears to be in good hands. The Chiefs are not a playoff team yet, but they may not be too far away.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Offensive Weapons – In 2008, the Chiefs were historically bad at getting to the quarterback, notching just ten sacks on the season. That number should go way up with personnel additions and the philosophy switch to the 3-4.

Whereas that may not be as much of a weakness as last season, Kansas City may have actually downgraded its offensive weapons. Dwayne Bowe should be a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver with wide receiver guru Todd Haley at head coach and a better quarterback. Larry Johnson can still be effective when healthy and free of off-field issues.

And Jamaal Charles is an intriguing talent. But that’s all the Chiefs have. They traded away future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, leaving them with no pass-catching threat at tight end. Every running back and all of the wide receivers behind Bowe have major injury histories and obvious holes in their games.

Todd Haley has an extremely tough task ahead of him if he hopes to rebuild this offense like the one he had last season as offensive coordinator in Arizona.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Jamaal Charles, RB – Larry Johnson is still serviceable as a runner, but is no longer a receiving threat or a threat to play all 16 games. Jamaal Charles is Johnson’s third-down replacement and should steal carries throughout the season.

The second-year player out of Texas has tremendous speed and game-breaking ability. He could easily emerge as the second-best option on passing plays. Our projections give Charles 943 total yards on about ten touches a game.

Closest Game: Denver Broncos (Week 13) – This begins the final run for the Chiefs as they end the year with five games against teams we predict to finish below .500. Defeating a divisional opponent at home could provide the Chiefs with some big time momentum to carry throughout December.

Fantasy Notables: Matt Cassel (9) 2,968 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs; Larry Johnson (25) 1,119 total yards, 9 TDs; Jamaal Charles (33) 943 total yards, 8 TDs; Dwayne Bowe (13) 84 receptions, 1,125 yards, 6 TDs; Mark Bradley (60) 42 receptions, 500 yards, 3 TDs; Ryan Succop (27) 33/34 XPs, 22/28 FGs

Projected 2009 Results

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Baltimore Ravens 50 16-18
2 Oakland Raiders 67 26-19
3 @Philadelphia Eagles 12 10-26
4 New York Giants 28 17-23
5 Dallas Cowboys 24 19-27
6 @Washington Redskins 25 13-23
7 San Diego Chargers 30 20-24
9 @Jacksonville Jaguars 61 23-22
10 @Oakland Raiders 37 22-28
11 Pittsburgh Steelers 30 14-18
12 @San Diego Chargers 17 16-30
13 Denver Broncos 60 26-21
14 Buffalo Bills 44 22-21
15 Cleveland Browns 79 29-18
16 @Cincinnati Bengals 36 18-24
17 @Denver Broncos 51 23-25

 

 

Denver Broncos (5-11)

This isn’t your father’s Denver Broncos. It’s not even your older brother’s Denver Broncos. Since Mike Shanahan, who served as Denver’s head coach for 14 seasons, was let go in favor of the then 32 year old Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, the whole atmosphere around the Broncos has changed, not to mention roster.

It’s not for the better – this season at least—as Denver regresses by three wins over last season and is only favored in two games all year. The Broncos average 20.8 points per game (No. 20) and allow 27 points (No. 30) against a schedule featuring just seven games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 2-14

Most Significant Newcomer: Josh McDaniels, Head Coach – I would love to spotlight Chris Simms, Knowshon Moreno or Reynaldo Hill, but they are not even guaranteed to contribute this year.

So many new players have been brought in to compete amongst other new players for starting jobs that McDaniels has to be the guy because he is the only addition whose role is set in stone.

In New England, Josh McDaniels learned from some of the best minds in the game like Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli. He became widely regarded as an ingenious play-caller and rising star in the coaching ranks.

Clearly he has the football IQ and ambition to succeed. He may not have the public relations savvy, maturity or the personality to last though. Less than three months into the job, a rift between McDaniels and incumbent starting quarterback Jay Cutler spearheaded a trade of the former first round pick to Chicago for Kyle Orton and picks.

While McDaniels legacy may ultimately hinge on this deal, it is important to note that that does not mean that Kyle Orton must be the starting quarterback all season. Denver originally started talking about trading Cutler after it had signed Chris Simms.

McDaniels knew that Simms would be a viable solution at quarterback if Cutler was not able to bring in a top replacement at the position. The notion that Orton must play because he was McDaniels hand-picked leader of the offense is silly because the decision would not have been made without another capable QB on the roster.

In our projections, Orton starts nine games and Simms seven. Either way, Denver is a mess right now. A good goal for McDaniels and his staff should be to get everything back in order and “right the ship” with a clear focus and plan as the Broncos head into the 2010 season.

Biggest Strength: Offensive Line – With all of the off-season movement, one of the few things that went mostly untouched was the offensive line—with good reason. In 2008, Denver finished third in the NFL in yards-per-rush (4.8) and tied with Tennessee in giving up the fewest sacks in the league (12) despite throwing 167 more passes than the Titans.

The Patriots offense with which Josh McDaniels is familiar is predicated on the quarterback getting time in the pocket and a running game that is enough of a threat for big plays that it keeps the defense guessing. A cohesive offensive line is crucial for this offense to succeed and the Broncos have built just that.

All five starters played in 16 games last season. 2008 first round pick Ryan Clady is already one of the league’s top tackles. For a team with so many questions and potential issues, this unit is as solid and as promising as any in the league.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Rushing Defense – The Broncos’ pass defense was worse than their rush defense in 2008, but got a little bit better in the offseason with the additions of Reynaldo Hill, Brian Dawkins, Andre Goodman and Alphonso Smith; while the team may now be worse against the run.

In a division with LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren McFadden, Larry Johnson (he’s still good, go look at the numbers), Darren Sproles and others, that’s scary.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Peyton Hillis, RB – One thing has remained the same from the Mike Shanahan days—the Broncos running back situation is a fantasy nightmare.

While Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan will split carries (kind of like Jordan, Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis did for the Patriots last season), Hillis, the lone returning Bronco running back likely to see the field in 2009, has Kevin Faulk written all over him.

Faulk totaled 993 yards on 141 touches, including 58 catches last year. Hillis caught 14 passes in seven games a rookie after catching 49 in his senior season at Arkansas.

He is coming off a torn hamstring, so he will need to be completely healthy to warrant taking a flier on him in fantasy, but he is more than capable of breaching 50 catches and 500 total yards. Our projections give Hillis 676 total yards on 102 touches in 14 games.

Closest Game: @ Oakland Raiders (Week 3) – After opening the season with Cincinnati and Cleveland, the Broncos go to Oakland to face their divisional rivals. After this game, they play eight straight games against teams who we project .500 or better this season, including six games against teams who make our 2009 playoffs.

If the Broncos split the first two, this could be a must-win early in the season before the schedule becomes brutal.

Fantasy Notables: Kyle Orton (32) 1,814 yards, 10 TDs, 8 INTs; Chris Simms (34) 1,252 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs; Knowshon Moreno (34) 970 total yards, 7 TDs; Correll Buckhalter (45) 806 total yards, 7 TDs; Brandon Marshall (31) 70 receptions, 895 yards, 5 TDs; Eddie Royal (35) 80 receptions, 855 yards, 5 TDs; Tony Scheffler (18) 27 receptions, 419 yards, 3 TDs; Matt Prater (24) 35/36 XPs, 22/30 FGs

Projected 2009 Results

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Cincinnati Bengals 32 21-29
2 Cleveland Browns 71 31-23
3 @Oakland Raiders 53 26-27
4 Dallas Cowboys 25 23-30
5 New England Patriots 32 22-27
6 @San Diego Chargers 30 22-31
8 @Baltimore Ravens 23 16-26
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 26 16-23
10 @Washington Redskins 24 13-23
11 San Diego Chargers 31 23-29
12 New York Giants 21 19-28
13 @Kansas City Chiefs 40 21-26
14 @Indianapolis Colts 19 19-31
15 Oakland Raiders 42 27-28
16 @Philadelphia Eagles 6 9-29
17 Kansas City Chiefs 49 25-23

2009 AFC North Preview

Published: June 10, 2009

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We will preview an NFL division each day for eight days, before presenting final standings, fantasy and statistical leaders, award winners, playoff results and power rankings. This analysis is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com’s Fantasy Football.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 9, 2009. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is “favored” (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season. For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks. All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

Today we preview the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
The 2008 Super Bowl champions look to go back-to-back and win their seventh ring. We will look at the playoffs later, but Pittsburgh has smooth sailing to a first round bye from this mediocre division. The Steelers average 21.2 points per game (#16 in the NFL) and only allow 14.1 points (#2) against a schedule featuring six games against teams who made the playoffs in 2008.

Absolute Record: 14-2

Most Significant Newcomer: Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DE—With very few players of significance coming or going, Hood is essentially the only option here. That being said, the pressure will definitely be on the rookie from Missouri starting in Week One.

The Steelers will need him to contribute; yet will never rely on him to make big plays. At 6’3″, 300 pounds, Hood has prototypical size for a 3-4 end who needs to be adept at stuffing the run and neutralizing blockers in passing situations. He is not spectacular in any facet of the game and rarely had to worry about rush containment as a tackle in the pass-happy Big 12.

We are projecting 16 games played, 30 tackles and two sacks for Hood, which is probably right in line with Pittsburgh’s expectations and about all they need from the first-year player.

Biggest Strength: Defense up the Middle—The Pittsburgh Steelers are built like a great defensive baseball team with the smart, solid players on the inside and the flashy, headline-grabbers on the outside.

Nose tackle Casey Hampton may be one of the most valuable players in football. In a 3-4 defense, the nose tackle must take on multiple blockers to hold the line and open up opportunities for the inside linebackers (and/or at least one of the safeties) to stuff the run. Assuming this can done effectively, outside linebackers and corners can be more aggressive, which leads to sacks and turnovers. Pittsburgh does all of this beautifully and it starts with Hampton.

Behind him at linebacker, James Farrior is as solid as it gets, while Lawrence Timmons looks like a star ready to breakout with additional playing time after the release of Larry Foote. Pittsburgh obviously also has the luxury of having two athletic, hard-hitting safeties who are both equally capable of making big tackles and creating turnovers.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Mistakes on Offense—Pittsburgh’s defense was so good last year that it always kept the Steelers in games and masked many of the costly turnovers and mistakes made by the offense.

Of all active quarterbacks, Ben Roethlisberger actually had the highest (worst) percentage of his passes intercepted in 2008. He was also sacked the second most times in the NFL (behind Matt Cassell of New England) last year. Typically a team built in this mold with a very strong defense and a rushing attack with several weapons that can stay fresh and take time off the clock needs a quarterback who plays smart and minimizes mistakes.

Roethlisberger, on the other hand, favors the big play and often compromises his team’s chances of winning with mistakes—only to seemingly win the game at the end by making plays “when it counts.”

In other words, the Steelers, with some luck, win in spite of their quarterback’s antics. In the playoffs, Roethlisberger often slows the game down and plays smarter. Pittsburgh needs him to play that way more often or it may catch up with them.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Santonio Holmes, WR—In the 2008 post-season, Hines Ward was banged-up, making Holmes the go-to receiver for the Steelers’ passing attack. A changing of the guard may have taken place in the Super Bowl when it was Holmes, not Ward who made the game-winning TD catch. Ward is still around and can be effective, but Holmes will be the guy in 2009. He is very much in the discussion for 1,000 receiving yards and a top 15 fantasy ranking amond wide receivers. Our projections have him at 1,000 yards even on 60 catches, both career highs.

Closest Game: Minnesota (Week 7)—The AFC North plays the AFC West and NFC North, meaning its teams will have a fairly easy schedule (Pittsburgh’s is the easiest because they don’t have to play themselves twice like everyone else in the division).

The most likely loss on the schedule comes against the Vikings. Even though the Steelers will be at home, Minnesota is a team that can put together the few explosive plays necessary to beat Pittsburgh in a low-scoring game. And no, this game will not likely end in a tie. The teams are just that close that the projected scores round to the same value.

Fantasy Notables (fantasy rank at position in parentheses): Ben Roethlisberger (15) 3,070 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs; Willie Parker (29) 1,030 total yards, 7 TDs; Santonio Holmes (17) 60 receptions, 1,000 yards, 6 TDs; Hines Ward (22) 79 receptions, 982 yards, 6 TDs; Heath Miller (19) 39 receptions, 424 yards, 2 TDs; Jeff Reed (9) 34/35 XPs, 28/35 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Tennessee Titans 67 21-14
2 @Chicago Bears 67 17-14
3 @Cincinnati Bengals 76 21-13
4 San Diego Chargers 62 23-18
5 @Detroit Lions 83 25-14
6 Cleveland Browns 95 31-7
7 Minnesota Vikings 45 18-18
9 @Denver Broncos 74 23-16
10 Cincinnati Bengals 67 21-14
11 @Kansas City Chiefs 70 18-14
12 @Baltimore Ravens 64 17-15
13 Oakland Raiders 70 23-15
14 @Cleveland Browns 85 23-12
15 Green Bay Packers 76 22-12
16 Baltimore Ravens 73 21-12
17 @Miami Dolphins 45 15-18

 

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Carson Palmer’s return to full health will benefit the Bengals greatly in 2009. With a young and talented defense on the field less and a light schedule, the Bengals improve by (at least) four wins. The Bengals average 20.9 points per game (#18) and allow 20.8 points (#16) against a schedule featuring six games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 10-6

Most Significant Newcomer: Andre Smith, OL—As we noted last month, the Bengals had a great draft according to our analysis of rookies who positively impact their teams in 2009.

Andre Smith is at the top of that list for Cincinnati. He was a dominant run-blocker for Alabama in the ultra-competitive SEC and projects to a better-than-average pass protector in the NFL.

We just mentioned how much better the team should be with a healthy Carson Palmer at quarterback. Palmer will be at his best if Smith can pave the way for Cedric Benson and an effective running game that can balance the offense and keep defenses guessing.

Smith comes with some potential pitfalls as well. As we mentioned in the drat analysis, “the computer does not know what Andre Smith looks like with his shirt off.” Right now, we assume that he will have a sizable (pun-intended) impact on the team—akin to Joe Staley or Jake Long as rookies. He could be even better like Joe Thomas or Ryan Clady. Or he could go Tony Mandrich on us and crush an already dismal franchise.

Biggest Strength: Youth on Defense—For a .500 team that is actually favored in ten games, nothing really jumps out as a definite strength. Several pieces—a healthy, Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback, an athletic, revamped offensive line, a stable of diverse running backs and wide receivers, a young defensive core, newly signed veterans, upgrades on special teams, etc.—that could be characteristic of a successful team appear to be coming together at one time, but none of them is much more of a lock to perform well than the others.

We will highlight the young defense here as that is the most promising aspect of this team for 2009 and beyond. Seven likely defensive starters—like Leon Hall, Keith Rivers, Ray Maualuga and Domata Peko—and many more contributors have three or less years of experience. And as rare as it may sound in Cincinnati, all of them belong.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Uncertainty—There may be several promising aspects of this team, but that also means that the Bengals must take a leap of faith that all of those pieces will improve as they hope and jell in 2009. There is a good chance that at least one of those items does not materialize. The talented rookies may be slow to develop. Carson Palmer or others may get hurt. The youth could be prone to mistakes. Or all of the above.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Chris Henry, WR—”Changed man” or otherwise, Chris Henry has a great deal of talent, Carson Palmer loves throwing to him and he has been showing up to everything in the offseason (while others ahead of him do not).

Whether Chad Ochocinco gets back to his 2002-2007 numbers or not, Henry should eclipse his 2006 numbers when he had 36 catches for 605 yards. Our projections have Chris Henry at 41 catches for 696 yards (despite being the third option at WR for the Bengals).

Closest Game: @ Oakland Raiders (Week 11)—If the Bengals want to “turn the corner” and get back in the playoffs, they have to be able to win a road game like this in Oakland. By Week 11, we have Jeff Garcia and Darren McFadden entrenched as starters for the Raiders so they will be improved over the beginning of the season, but the Bengals are still the better overall team.

Fantasy Notables: Carson Palmer (15) 3,065 yards, 19 TDs, 11 INTs; Cedric Benson (24) 1,197 total yards, 8 TDs; Chad Ochocinco (37) 63 receptions, 851 yards, 5 TDs; Laveranues Coles (38) 66 receptions, 842 yards, 5 TDs; Chris Henry (43) 41 receptions, 696 yards, 4 TDs; Shayne Graham (13) 34/35 XPs, 27/33 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Denver Broncos 68 29-21
2 @Green Bay Packers 56 21-21
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 24 13-21
4 @Cleveland Browns 82 26-17
5 @Baltimore Ravens 45 17-21
6 Houston Texans 54 23-20
7 Chicago Bears 51 20-18
9 Baltimore Ravens 51 21-19
10 @Pittsburgh Steelers 33 14-21
11 @Oakland Raiders 51 23-24
12 Cleveland Browns 78 28-16
13 Detroit Lions 65 24-18
14 @Minnesota Vikings 25 17-26
15 @San Diego Chargers 32 20-27
16 Kansas City Chiefs 64 24-18
17 @New York Jets 32 17-24

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Joe Flacco’s sophomore season is not as impressive as his rookie year as Baltimore falls short of the playoffs. The team clearly misses misses Bart Scott and Rex Ryan. The Ravens average 19.7 points per game (#25) and allow 19.1 points (#11) against a schedule featuring five games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 8-8

Most Significant Newcomer: Michael Oher, OL – Assuming he was not yet ready to unseat right tackle Willie Anderson, we originally had Michael Oher ranked as the 63rd most impactful rookie, behind other Ravens like DE/OLB Paul Kruger and ILB Jason Phillips. That changed drastically when Anderson retired shortly after the NFL Draft. Now Oher will be expected to help protect second-year quarterback Joe Flacco and pave the way for Flacco’s fellow sophomore, running back Ray Rice.

To be honest, Oher was drafted a round or two ahead of his value in our analysis. Despite starting three seasons at Mississippi, Oher is fairly new to football and could still be a project. The Ravens aren’t waiting on him, so he’ll have to do well now. The projections put him in the middle of his potential, just below average for an NFL RT.

His extremes are not as pronounced as a guy like Andre Smith, but neither is his talent. He should at least retain his job this season and for several years to come.

Biggest Strength: Defensive Intimidation—Intimidation comes through in the numbers when teams are scared to run up the middle toward Haloti Ngata and Ray Lewis, pass deep near Ed Reed or scramble around a freak like Terrell Suggs.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Offense—It is not that Joe Flacco is a bad NFL quarterback. He actually projects to be just better than average this season. The concern with the passing game is a lack of weapons and question marks on the offensive line.

Flacco should be able to complete 60% of his passes again this year, while minimizing interceptions, but his completions may not go very far after the catch and he should end up on his back even more often than he did in 2008 when he was sacked the eighth most in the NFL. Derrick Mason is banged-up right now and is 35 years old.

Todd Heap’s career has fallen off over the last two years. The same can be said for free agent signee LJ Smith. And Mark Clayton has never really shown that he can be a go-to guy. There is no else on the roster worth mentioning here. Especially with potential issues on the line, the running game is not strong enough to overcome the liabilities of the passing game.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Ray Rice, RB—By the time most fantasy drafts begin, Ray Rice may actually be around the 20th running back taken, but for now, we have him valued higher than most.

Le’Ron McLain had an impressive season in 2008, yet, without Lorenzo Neal and with an offensive line in flux, he will be needed more in blocking from the fullback position in 2009. Willis McGahee can be productive in spurts, yet has major durability concerns.

Whether he opens the season first on the depth chart or not, Ray Rice should be the Ravens’ best fantasy running back. Our projections see Rice net almost 1,200 total yards and ten touchdowns on about 15 touches a game.

Closest Game: Kansas City (Week 1)—Kansas City is probably stronger in Week One of the simulations than they will be to begin the actual season, yet the revamped, recharged Chiefs would like nothing more than to open the new year with a road win over a playoff team. We should know quickly how much the losses of Bart Scott, Willie Anderson, Lorenzo Neal, Rex Ryan and Jim Leonhard mean to the Ravens.

Fantasy Notables:Joe Flacco (14) 2866 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs; Ray Rice (21) 1,189 total yards, 10 TDs; Willis McGahee (47) 794 total yards, 6 TDs; Derrick Mason (30) 67 receptions, 890 yards, 5 TDs; Mark Clayton (40) 43 receptions, 788 yards, 5 TDs; Todd Heap (20) 33 receptions, 412 yards, 2 TDs; Steven Hauschka (30) 34/34 XPs, 21/29 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Kansas City Chiefs 50 18-16
2 @San Diego Chargers 32 18-25
3 Cleveland Browns 86 29-14
4 @New England Patriots 23 15-26
5 Cincinnati Bengals 55 21-17
6 @Minnesota Vikings 24 16-26
8 Denver Broncos 77 26-16
9 @Cincinnati Bengals 49 19-21
10 @Cleveland Browns 82 26-16
11 Indianapolis Colts 45 18-18
12 Pittsburgh Steelers 36 15-17
13 @Green Bay Packers 57 18-18
14 Detroit Lions 72 25-16
15 Chicago Bears 53 18-16
16 @Pittsburgh Steelers 27 12-21
17 @Oakland Raiders 46 21-24

 

Cleveland Browns (3-13)
Clearly a team in disarray as they transition coaching staffs and philosophies, the Cleveland Browns are simply the worst team in the NFL in 2009. The Browns average 16.9 points per game (#32) and allow 28.1 points (#31) against a schedule featuring just six games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 0-16

Most Significant Newcomer: Eric Barton, LB—Barton was a tackling machine for the New York Jets in 2008 and was hand-picked by his head coach, Eric Mangini, to lead the Browns defense in 2009. Barton should help to anchor the interior of the defense which also includes D’Qwell Jackson. Barton and Jackson, both former Maryland Terrapins, each topped 100 total tackles last season.

Biggest Strength: Special Teams—The sad thing is that Joshua Cribbs, the team’s return specialist who also plays on the coverage units, knows this is Cleveland’s biggest strength and has tried to leverage that in contract negotiations.

Phil Dawson may be the worst starting fantasy kicker in the league, but that has everything to do with the offense. He has a strong leg, capable of hitting from 50+ yards, which is a big weapon for a team that will struggle to move the ball.

Cribbs’ numbers from 2008 do not look as great as the previous season, but he helped the team to finish second in the league (behind Oakland) in net punting margin (Cleveland averaged 5.7 more net yards per punt than its opponents). Cribbs also made 23 special teams tackles.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Everything Else—It may not quite be that bad—Joe Thomas, D’Qwell Jackson, Shaun Rogers and Braylon Edwards should be bright spots for the Browns—but the team lacks cohesive pieces and standout players.

The numbers don’t like Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson at quarterback. Jamal Lewis is a well-below NFL-average performer at this point, who inexplicably still gets touches—probably because there really isn’t anyone behind him to trust.

The team shipped out its promising, young—though oft-injured and hot-headed—tight end. The offensive line is not anything special. Braylon Edwards has talent, but he also drops too many passes. Brian Robiskie looks good, yet is not likely ready to be a clear number two—and there is no one behind him who is.

The 3-4 outside linebackers can’t get to the quarterback. The corners show up on every NFL receiver’s highlight reel—for the wrong reasons. Their nose tackle is frequently out of playing shape and too easily disgruntled. And the coaching staff is already drawing the ire of many players and fans.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Brian Robiskie, WR—With Donte’ Stallworth’s legal issues, Robiskie is the likely second receiver on the Browns. He is a great compliment to Braylon Edwards as he is most things that Edwards is not. Robiskie is mild-mannered, a great route runner and has sure hands. He is not fast nor an exceptional deep threat. The projections give Robiskie 30 catches for 434 yards. Considering the projected poor performance of the quarterbacks, that’s significant. If either QB can exceed expectations and put together a great year, Robiskie’s projections will greatly improve.

Closest Game: Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 17)—This could be the battle for the first draft choice, with the loser earning the prize. By now, Cleveland should have realized that neither of its quarterbacks is the answer, so it may be in the Browns’ best interest to lose and draft Sam Bradford first overall.

Fantasy Notables: Brady Quinn (30) 2,166 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INTs; Jamal Lewis (28) 1,101 total yards, 6 TDs; Jerome Harrison (55) 718 total yards, 5 TDs; Braylon Edwards (15) 67 receptions, 1,069 yards, 6 TDs; Steve Heiden (24) 33 receptions, 375 yards, 2 TDs; Phil Dawson (32) 28/28 XPs, 20/24 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Minnesota Vikings 8 18-33
2 @Denver Broncos 29 23-31
3 @Baltimore Ravens 14 14-29
4 Cincinnati Bengals 18 17-26
5 @Buffalo Bills 18 14-29
6 @Pittsburgh Steelers 5 7-31
7 Green Bay Packers 28 19-24
8 @Chicago Bears 17 13-26
10 Baltimore Ravens 18 16-26
11 @Detroit Lions 34 21-28
12 @Cincinnati Bengals 22 16-28
13 San Diego Chargers 11 19-33
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 15 12-23
15 @Kansas City Chiefs 21 18-29
16 Oakland Raiders 20 21-29
17 Jacksonville Jaguars 37 23-25

Top 100 Impact NFL Rookies for the 2009-10 Season

Published: April 30, 2009

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Sadly for NFL fans, the draft does not even signify the midway point between the Super Bowl and the start of the next regular season.

For two days packed with incessant speculation and unmatched optimism, every football fan gets a fix. And for fans of every team, hope springs that maybe these few new players can make the difference. Then, we wait for four months until kickoffs count.

At WhatIfSports.com, it’s a little different. Draft day signifies the beginning of one of our busiest times of the year as we work on our comprehensive, full-season preview. For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 10,000 times.

Coming up with statistical inputs is relatively easy for veteran players, as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles.

Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, “measurables,” likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff, and trends of similar rookies in the past.

This gives us the player’s projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year. The Top 100 from this ranking are listed below.

We have done pretty well with this approach leading into the 2008 season. Last season’s ranking is located here.

As you can see, not only did this methodology correctly rank first round draft choices like Jonathan Stewart, Jerod Mayo, Jake Long, and Sedrick Ellis among the top 10, it helped to point out some steals like Steve Slaton, Charles Godfrey, Matt Forte, Trevor Scott, Jamaal Charles, and Cliff Avril.

Clearly, it is easier for some players at some positions to come in and make a positive impact in the first year. Typically, these positions include wide receiver and inside linebacker, where the stats rack up with playing time.

For 2009, we are ranking 12 wide receivers among the Top 100 impact rookies. Four of them are in the top 10. Six of the eight inside linebackers drafted also appear on this list.

Based on these rankings, with six Top 100 rookies each, Detroit and Buffalo will get the most positive impact from their rookies in 2009. With just one player each in our Top 100 —both first round quarterbacks—Tampa Bay and the New York Jets have the draft classes with the least depth.

Without further ado, Nos. 100 to 11 are:

100. William Moore, S, Atlanta
99. Andre Brown, RB, New York Giants
98. Jaimie Thomas, OL, Indianapolis
97. Terrance Taylor, DT, Indianapolis
96. Nic Harris, LB/S, Pittsburgh
95. David Johnson, TE, Houston
94. D.J. Moore, CB, Chicago
93. Patrick Chung, S, New England
92. David Veikune, DE, Cleveland
91. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT, Tennessee
90. Derrick Williams, WR, Detroit
89. Zack Follett, LB, Detroit
88. Victor Harris, CB, Philadelphia
87. Shawn Nelson, TE, Buffalo
86. Lardarius Webb, CB, Baltimore
85. Chris Owens, CB, Atlanta
84. Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee
83. Seth Olsen, OL, Denver
82. Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland
81. Cornelius Ingram, TE, Philadelphia
80. Stanley Arnoux, LB, New Orleans
79. Pat White, WR/QB, Miami
78. Courtney Greene, S, Seattle
77. Travis Beckum, TE, New York Giants
76. Duke Robinson, OL, Carolina
75. Myron Pryor, DT, New England
74. Mike Mickens, CB, Dallas
73. Aaron Maybin, DE, Buffalo
72. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay
71. Herman Johnson, OL, Arizona
70. Jarett Dillard, WR, Jacksonville
69. Clint Sintim, LB, New York Giants
68. Louis Vasquez, OL, San Diego
67. Andrew Levitre, OL, Buffalo
66. Robert Ayers, DE, Denver
65. Fili Moala, DT, Indianapolis
64. Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Chicago
63. Michael Oher, OL, Baltimore
62. Scott McKillop, LB, San Francisco
61. Robert Henson, LB, Washington
60. Stryker Sulak, DE, Oakland
59. Clay Matthews, LB, Green Bay
58. Vontae Davis, CB, Miami
57. Max Unger, OL, Seattle
56. Paul Kruger, LB, Baltimore
55. Victor Butler, LB, Dallas
54. James Casey, TE, Houston
53. Michael Mitchell, S, Oakland
52. DeAngelo Smith, CB/S, Dallas
51. Ryan Succop, K, Kansas City (Mr. Irrelevant makes the cut!)
50. Darius Butler, CB, New England
49. Michael Johnson, DE, Cincinnati
48. Sherrod Martin, CB, Carolina
47. Kraig Urbik, OL, Pittsburgh
46. Antoine Caldwell, OL, Houston
45. Brian Robiskie, WR, Cleveland
44. Alex Mack, OL, Cleveland
43. Evander Hood, DT, Pittsburgh
42. Lawrence Sidbury, DE, Atlanta
41. Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis
40. Kevin Huber, P, Cincinnati
39. DeAndre Levy, LB, Detroit
38. Everette Brown, DE, Carolina
37. Jonathan Luigs, C, Cincinnati
36. Sean Smith, CB, Miami
35. Jairus Byrd, CB, Buffalo
34. Malcolm Jenkins, CB, New Orleans
33. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit
32. Tyson Jackson, DE, Kansas City
31. Phil Loadholt, OL, Minnesota
30. Jason Phillips, LB, Baltimore
29. Eben Britton, OL, Jacksonville
28. Rashad Johnson, S, Arizona
27. Eric Wood, OL, Buffalo
26. Eugene Monroe, OL, Jacksonville
25. Larry English, DE/LB, San Diego
24. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia
23. Jarron Gilbert, DT, Chicago
22. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia
21. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland
20. Connor Barwin, DE, Houston
19. Chris Wells, RB, Arizona
18. Brian Cushing, LB, Houston
17. Rey Maualuga, LB, Cincinnati
16. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver
15. James Laurinaitis, LB, St. Louis
14. B.J. Raji, DT, Green Bay
13. Brian Orakpo, DE, Washington
12. Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis
11. Alphonso Smith, CB, Denver

And now the top 10:

10. Louis Delmas, S, Detroit

The likely starter over last year’s free safety, Kalvin Pearson, former Western Michigan standout Louis Delmas should be an instant impact player on a team starving for help in the defensive backfield.

The Lions only intercepted four passes all of last season. Delmas matched that total in his sophomore and senior seasons while racking up the tackles for the Broncos. He is a great fit alongside young, hard-hitting strong safety Daniel Bullocks.

 

9. Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants

With Plaxico Burress’ sudden release and the team’s unwillingness to bring back Amani Toomer, Eli Manning needs some help. Nicks, the 6’1″, 215-pound receiver out of North Carolina, is somewhere in between those previously mentioned receivers.

He has great hands like Toomer and projects to a higher yards-per-catch than the retiree, yet lacks Burress’ elite size and red zone prowess.

By the end of the year, expect Nicks to ultimately win the competition with Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith to be Manning’s new favorite target in the passing game.

 

8. Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee

Tennessee is another team in desperate need of a go-to wide receiver. The Titans have not had a wideout eclipse 750 yards since Derrick Mason in 2004. In 2008, Justin Gage led the way with 651 yards on just 34 catches.

Britt, who has prototypical size and athleticism for the position, should be the long-term answer for the Titans.

With an excellent running game and a veteran quarterback, he has a good chance of breaking out this season. In the latter weeks and in the playoffs, look for Britt to become an intimidating weapon for Kerry Collins.

 

7. Andre Smith, OL, Cincinnati

Andre Smith is listed here for the same reason he was drafted so early by the Bengals—for what he did on the field. The beauty of this analysis is that it is not biased (and does not know what the guy looks like without his shirt on).

If a player has “issues,” we work those into his playing time projection, but we don’t let that impact how he is projected to play when he does.

Smith is a dominant run blocker who warranted Heisman conversation last season and is much closer to being No. 1 on this list than he is to being a bust.

 

6. Jason Smith, OL, St. Louis

Jason Smith gets the nod over Andre Smith because he is the better pass blocker. And while Andre’s pass blocking ability is closer to Jason’s than Jason’s run blocking is to Andre’s, protecting the quarterback is crucial in the NFL.

All signs seem to indicate that Jason Smith is incredibly talented and yet is still improving. That should pay off for the Rams this season for many years to come.

 

5. Aaron Curry, LB, Seattle

Curry is a versatile linebacker who is ready to step in as a starter for the Seahawks in week one. The Wake Forest product has averaged 94 tackles, three sacks, and two interceptions per season as a three-year starter in the ACC, making him as ready-made for the NFL as defensive prospects come.

Furthermore, while some ultra-productive college defensive players have extreme red flags in their “measurables” that correctly point to deficiencies in their games, Curry possesses great size, speed, and strength for the position.

 

4. Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Minnesota

Everyone who has seen Harvin run raves about how quickly he can get to full speed and how fast he is with the football. For as impressive as he is to watch, Harvin’s numbers are better. Playing against the country’s best competition in the SEC, he was always the most dynamic player on the field.

Per touch, he has more talent and can bring more to an NFL team than any other rookie. Our projection assumes Harvin is used in a way similar to Reggie Bush (or at least how Bush may be used in a backfield with Adrian Peterson), with 76 rushes, 50 receptions, and some return duty.

 

3. Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets

Mark Sanchez is better than Matthew Stafford. Sanchez projects to complete 60 percent of his passes and throw an interception per 36 attempts for a typical NFL team. In the same vacuum, Stafford completes 54 percent of his passes and throws an interception every 29 passes.

Stafford is ranked higher because of two things: 1) The Lions will throw the ball more and 2) Calvin Johnson. Sanchez should be solid this season and for several years. Neither of these quarterbacks appears to be a consistent Pro Bowler (New York bias aside), yet Sanchez’s bust potential is much lower than Stafford’s.

 

2. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit

2009 should be significantly better for Detroit with Stafford at the helm than it was in 2008. That being said, there will be a learning curve, and Stafford will probably never be great.

The rankings of the quarterbacks on this list have more to do with the opportunities to impact the team positively than with talent. We project Sanchez to attempt 97 percent of the Jets’ passes and Stafford to attempt 91 percent of the Lions’.

On total number of plays and touches alone, they would probably both be at the top of the “greatest overall negative impact” list as well.

 

1. Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco

Unlike last season, when three players eclipsed the mark, there are no 1,000-yard rushers or receivers projected from this group of rookies. Crabtree is the closest thing, and it really would not be a surprise to see him do it.

He gets great marks across the board from college performance, to NFL opportunity, to “measurables,” and even a successful player (Isaac Bruce) in this role last season.

The only concerns with this projection would be inconsistency at quarterback—Shaun Hill, Damon Huard, Alex Smith, and Nate Davis are the options—and recent injuries to his feet and ankles.


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