My Dream Headline: Eagles Fire Andy Reid

Every Philadelphia Eagles fan should be so lucky to wake up Monday morning and read the above headline in their local paper following the Eagles 31-23 loss to the San Diego Chargers.

I sincerely apologize to any Eagles fans that read this and got their hopes up. Similar to Andy Reid, I thought I too should get your hopes up only to dash them and leave you feeling like you got punched in the gut.

The idea of firing a head coach in the middle of the NFL season is terrible. It is even worse when you consider the coach being fired is in the midst of competing for a playoff berth and a division title.

Do you want to hear another terrible idea?

How about you do the following during an NFL game: Turn touchdowns into field goals, establish a predictable offense, run out of timeouts, not use your time wisely and not understand when a two-point conversion is warranted.

Sounds like someone had a bad game. Let’s be honest though, you can’t get fired for such offenses.

In the case of Andy Reid not only can you get fired for this, you should be fired for this.

Immediately.

Reid finds a way to botch one of the aforementioned issues each week. The beauty of the game in San Diego is that it all happened in the same game and they all contributed to the Eagles loss.

So let’s start at the beginning of this hot mess and slowly work our way through it. Consider this the first dot on the paper. As we connect the dots you will see a big fat “F” appear on the paper. It can stand for “Failure,” “Fired,” “Funny,” or another word of your choice.

Efficiency in the Redzone

Field goals are valuable when a drive stalls at the 35, you trot out the guy most players on your team don’t consider a football player and earns you three points from 52 yards out.

Field goals cost you games when they split the uprights from distances of 18, 25 and 25 yards.

The Eagles first trip the redzone saw the offense facing a first and goal from…gasp…the 1-yard line. I know it sounds scary and the end result was nothing short of a nightmare.

Run, Play action pass, run, field goal.

I know what happened the first time around: The Eagles were too close to the endzone and they ran the ball too many times.

The second trip to the redzone offered the perfect remedy. The Eagles had first and goal from the nine. Now they could ditch the run and really use those weapons they have on offense.

Pass, run, Pass, field goal.

No big deal. Andy has it all figured out now. The Eagles need to find themselves in a manageable third down situation without facing the daunting task of goal-to-go.

The third trip was offered such a scenario.

With third and one from the San Diego seven Andy decides to run Sprint Right Option or a variation that looks very similar to it. Do you know what this play is?

It is the same play where Joe Montana and Dwight Clark connected on the Catch.

The quarterback rolls right and has three options. He can run, throw to a receiver in the flat or throw to a receiver in the back of the endzone.

Well that’s great. Too bad Donovan McNabb isn’t Joe Cool and Reid isn’t Bill Walsh.

McNabb tossed the ball away and we were lucky enough to see David Akers kick another field goal, genuflect, and then point his finger to the sky as he mutters something that I’m sure no one in Philadelphia cares about.

Thanks Andy. Your team looked like it was prepared to convert on golden opportunities.

Balanced Offense

I am sitting here in front of my laptop with the TV on and my dog Wes snoring. This isn’t exactly what I would call a “film session.”

It sounds weird, but somehow I figured out it might be wise to run the ball against the 25th ranked rushing defense, which gave up 130 yards per game entering today’s contest against the Eagles.

I guess you don’t need to lock yourself in a room for hours on end and remove yourself from human contact to figure that idea out.

I wonder if Andy knows there are 32 teams in the leagues. Maybe he thought the Chargers were 25^th against the run out of like 122 teams. Perhaps if someone told him the Chargers were 7^th to last against the rush the point would get through to him.

Forget it. Everything makes sense now. When the opposition is expecting you to run you need to completely abandon the run. If I had 69 offensive plays I would probably throw it 69 times or until Donovan went Dave Dravecky on everyone.

Thank goodness Reid is at the helm because he scaled back the pass considerably more than I would have. He only let McNabb air out 55 times, Michael Vick once and a hefty 13 runs.

Random though: Do you think McNabb would object to Kevin Kolb coming into the game to throw one pass? Yeah. I doubt he would like it. So then why in the world doesn’t he throw a hissy fit when Vick comes to disrupt the offense?

Back to the topic.

I know you’re thinking Reid passed a lot because the Eagles were trailing big in the second half. Thanks oh mighty football genius, but take a look at the first half and you will see the Eagles passed 26 times and ran it only seven times.

At that pace you are looking at 52 passes and 14 runs. It really is weird how the pattern held true.

To put things in further perspective Brian Westbrook’s last run of the day came on the fourth play of the third quarter.

He still ended up leading the team in rushing attempts and nearly accounted for half of the rushes.

Timeouts

You get three in each half and they carry the magical ability to stop time. It is a powerful tool that many great people in history have longed for. Yet Reid uses them up like those little paper cones that accompany a water cooler.

I can see him standing next to the water cooler thinking, “No big deal if I use one here, there are more left.” He sort of haphazardly goes about his business and thinks nothing of it.

And then all of sudden when he is really thirsty he runs out of paper cones and stands there in a state of shock wondering what to do next. Following a deep breath he collects his thoughts and realizes how foolish he was not save a couple for later use.

It’s kind of like that with the timeout issue.

I’m not saying the Eagles win the game if they have all three timeouts, but it certainly changes the dynamics of the game and it gives the Eagles a better chance to win the game.

And the last time I checked a major job responsibility of a coach is to make sure the team has pinnies for practice, directions to the game, and oh yeah, the opportunity to win.

Clock Management

The Eagles trailed by 12 with 12 minutes to go and they’re out their frolicking around like a kid trying to catch butterflies in an open field.

While the Eagles were out in the own little world every fan in Philadelphia said, “This looks like the Super Bowl against the Patriots, huh?”

I’m sure the conversation was much more colorful, but you get the point.

Where was the urgency?

Maybe urgency was hanging out with the abundance of timeouts. Oh. There was no abundance of timeouts? I guess urgency had nowhere to hang out..

Two-point conversion

The Eagles trailed 28-9, which is a 19 point deficit for those lacking strong mathematical skills.

When you trail by 19 points in the NFL it is possible to tie the game up in three possessions with one of those possessions yielding a field goal.

Andy decided it was best to put the Eagles behind the eight ball and asked them to score three touchdowns. Heck, one touchdown was tough to come by, so why not ask for three in the fourth quarter.

If anyone knows Andy maybe they could drop off the following scenario on his desk. Thanks in advance from me and every Eagles fan out there.

You can tie a 19-point game with with two touchdowns (12 total points), two two-point conversions (4  total points), and a field goal (three total points). Add up the numbers in the parentheses and you get 19 points in three possessions.

Is that asking a lot?

Sure.

But why not go for it on your first touchdown?

If you miss the first two-point conversion you are still down 13 points and you need two touchdowns to take the lead. If you kick the extra point, which is what Andy did, you trail by 12 points. And guess what? You still need two touchdowns.

However, if you convert the first conversion you are looking at an 11-point deficit and we all know that means you don’t need two touchdowns.

The time has finally come where Andy Reid must go and it must happen immediately.

When I rest my head down on my pillow Sunday night I will pray that I wake up to read a headline telling me Andy Reid is no longer the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Goodnight.

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Andy Reid: Many Records Set, Yet Two Will Always Haunt Him

No matter where you go, it is easy to spot a Philadelphia Eagles fan.

They stand with their chest puffed out proud and they can withstand any critical comments made about their beloved Eagles or the city of Philadelphia.

Eagles fans are a special breed. They have the rare ability to sniff out Cowboys, Giants, or Redskins fans and lambaste them with insults that have been known to make grown men either blush or cry.

But once they huddle up with each other, they admit the Eagles really are a sad sight for sore eyes and then these four words are usually uttered: “Andy Reid’s gotta go.”

Truth be told, not every fan has these feelings about Andy Reid, but it is safe to say the majority of the fans feel this way.

But why?

Why, in a city that yearns for winning, do they shun a coach who has the most wins in franchise history?

How can fans who hate Dallas more than out-of-town imitation cheesesteaks be infuriated by a man who is 13-8 against their archrival?

And doesn’t he deserve a ton of credit for turning around a rather dull franchise?

Yes, I am taking a knock at the Eagles franchise for not being all that exciting and for being rather pedestrian.

The Eagles were established in 1933 and success was not their forte.

Actually, winning and the Eagles were rarely synonymous.

The Eagles experienced only 25 winnings seasons between their inception in 1933 and the year Reid arrived, 1999.

That means Philadelphia Eagles fans experienced a winning season only 38 percent of the time.

To take it a step further, the Eagles only made 14 playoff appearances before Reid’s arrival. That calculates to the fans watching their team in the playoffs only 21 percent of the time.

And if you really want to get down in the dumps about the Eagles, then all you have to do is look at the nine playoff games they won in the 65-year gap.

Reid obliterates all of those numbers and makes you wonder why fans could hate him.

In his 10 full seasons here, Reid has racked up seven winning seasons. The 70 percent clip nearly doubles the 38 percent mark established before him.

Reid has also made the playoffs in seven of his 10 seasons. This means Eagles fans were treated to playoff football 70 percent of the time. This is astounding considering what the fans used to witness every year.

Even more remarkable is the number of playoff wins under Reid. In 65 years, the Philadelphia Eagles won an astonishing nine playoff games, while Reid already has 10 playoff wins in 10 years.

It is extraordinary to think about the kind of success Eagles fans have experienced under Reid.

And he is not winning because he inherited a great team.

In the two years before Reid took over at the helm, the Eagles were 6-9-1 and then 3-13.

In his first season, he watched his team go 5-11, with Doug Pederson making a majority of the starts.

Things looked bad.

He lost to Dallas twice that year and his rookie quarterback, Donovan McNabb, was not a fan favorite.

And then he started to win.

Not only did he make the Eagles winners; he made them Super Bowl contenders.

Yet none of that matters.

Why? How can a city of losers hate a winner? It makes no sense.

Ah, but there are two records missing. There are two incriminating facts that have been left out. 

The first is that Reid is a pathetic 1-4 in NFC Championship games. You want percentages? I got your percentages right here. He’s won 20 percent of the time in Conference title games.

Wanna make it sound worse?

He’s lost 80 percent of the time his team was in the NFC Championship.

He would get a pass if the Eagles were favored in only one of the five, but as fate would have it, the Eagles were a favorite four times.

That stat alone should be enough to erase a lot of the fan’s love for Reid. But there is one record that eats away at Eagles fans. There is one record that tells you Reid is not a winner.

0-1.

That is Andy’s Super Bowl record.

In a city that thirsts for a winner, only a Super Bowl will quench that thirst.

As awful as the Eagles were pre-Reid, they still won two league championships in ’48 and ’60.

As someone who appreciates what Reid has done here and defends every move he makes and every game he coaches, there is no defense for not winning a Super Bowl. You can’t defend someone who had all of this talent and produced nothing with it.

Sorry national media, unless the fans of Philadelphia have a Super Bowl, it is the same old story. It does not matter how close you get to winning the Super Bowl.

The fact is, the Eagles’ season has ended without a Super Bowl every year Reid has been here. The Eagles’ season ended the same way the Detroit Lions’ season did—with no Lombardi trophy.

It’s a harsh comparison, but it’s true. The fans did not suffer through an 0-16 season, but they were punched in the gut one more time in the NFC Championship. The pain from those blows are adding up.

Unfortunately for Reid, he will always be remembered as the guy who choked. He will be thought of as “The Little Engine That Almost Could.”

And as long as Reid never wins a Super Bowl, it will still be easy to spot a Philadelphia Eagles fan.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Free NFL Picks: Week 10

25 years ago the Baltimore Colts skipped town and headed to the bright lights and extravagant city of Indianapolis.

It makes sense. Dump the crab cakes, nights on the Chesapeake and trips to the beach for…uh…um. Yeah, I’m not sure what you do in Indianapolis.

Apparently the only thing to do was lose.

The Colts did it well and they did it often.

In fact the Colts never had a 10-win season between 1984 and 1999. And mixed in with their futility were a mere three playoff appearances.

It was bad. Really, really, really bad.

Even though 1999 marked the Indianapolis Colts’ first 10-win season, the most memorable year was 1998.

The year marked Peyton Manning’s rookie campaign and the turnaround for a team that was the laughing stock of the NFL.

After Peyton’s rookie season, he led the Colts to nine seasons of 10 wins or more including the current seven-season streak that will push to eight at season’s end.

I admit I was not a big Peyton Manning fan. I thought he was the kind of guy who would win a bunch of regular season games, pile up stats and never win a big game.

He proved me wrong and the crow did not taste well.

All of this only confirmed how influential a quarterback can be for a franchise.

Land a stud and you can turn a franchise around. Land a dud and you could set your franchise back a couple of years.

With this in mind I thought I would give a new gambling theory a try.

This week I’m going to pick games with an eight-point spread or less and base the pick on the quarterback matchup. Since eight points signify a one-possession game, it makes sense to allow the quarterback matchups dictate my picks.

After a 3-0 week last week I look to up the 28-24 record:

 

Peyton Manning (-3) vs. Tom Brady

This is the best debate in all of sports.

Brady or Manning?

This is one argument that cannot be won. When it is all said and done these two could be the greatest quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL.

The league is set up for passing offenses and they know how to exploit it.

Ultimately I have to side with Manning because he is playing on his home turf.

Indianapolis 33 – New England 26

 

Matt Ryan (-1.5) @ Jake Delhomme

No one—and I mean no one—can possibly like Jake against Matty Ice.

I don’t care where this game is being played. They could play in Afghanistan, in Russia, or in my garage.

There is no way I’m going to take Jake Delhomme in this matchup.

Atlanta 30 – Carolina 24

 

Jason Campbell (+4) vs. Kyle Orton

These two stiffs make bums like Doug Pederson and Sean Salisbury look like hall-of-famers. If you don’t know who those two are go look up their stats and enjoy the laugh.

Since this is an even matchup I have to take the points.

Washington 13 – Denver 12

 

Ben Roethlisberger (-7) vs. Carson Palmer

Big Ben has two Super Bowl titles and is starting to pile up some nice stats as well.

Carson Palmer is a stud and I believe he will get his Super Bowl someday. But I have to take Ben here.

There is no way he is going to let his team get swept by a division rival at home on his watch.

Pittsburgh 23 – Cincinnati 13

 

Matt Cassel (+2) @ JaMarcus Russell

Whenever a quarterback’s rating looks like your buddy’s front-nine scorecard in golf you better not back that signal caller.

Huh? Golf? Football? Where are we?

Focus now.

JaMarcus stinks.

You got it?

Kansas City 23 – Oakland 20

 

Donovan McNabb (+2.5) @ Philip Rivers

The San Diego Chargers are the West Coast version of the Philadelphia Eagles. They pile up regular season wins and then blow it in the playoffs.

Therefore Rivers is the West Coast version of McNabb.

With an even matchup like this, I once again have to take the points.

Philadelphia 32 – San Diego 20

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Free NFL Picks: Week 7

Close your eyes after you read the next sentence, wait until you can conjure up an image and then open them.

Think of something really awesome.

Now think of the complete opposite. That’s what I was last week.

I went 1-6 boys and girls, a record highlighted by my outright prediction of the Tennessee Titans over the New England Patriots.

Worst. Pick. Ever.

My winning percentage dropped from 60 percent to 54 percent and my overall record now sits at 23-19.

Six weeks in and only four game over .500. It’s better than most out there, but it is not where I wanted to be after having six consecutive winning weeks to open up the season.

And no, I was not stalling by getting the sweet ‘ol picks in late this week. I’m a little busy and I’m even in a rush as I type so the wit, humor and insight are lacking.

So what happens now?

I don’t know and neither do you. So let’s stop the chit chat and get to the picks.

 

Cleveland (+9) vs. Green Bay

Hmmm. Another nine-point dog playing against a team that is clearly better sounds awfully familiar.

I guess I didn’t learn my lesson with the Titans.

Green Bay is looking ahead to the Vikings next week so this is the perfect spot for a letdown.

Green Bay 20, Cleveland 14.

 

Minnesota (+6) @ Pittsburgh

Who have the Steelers beat of any significance this year?

Seriously.

Was it the Titans, Chargers, Lions or Browns that made you say, “Wow this team is good?”

Their best game of the year came against the Chargers. They went up big and nearly found a way to blow the game.

If the Vikings were playing a poor team, I would use the look-ahead factor mentioned earlier with Green Bay. This is not the case here as Minnesota knows they are up against a team that is capable of beating them.

Minnesota 27, Pittsburgh 24.

 

Miami (+6) vs. New Orleans

I picked against the Saints last week and got burned, so here we go for take two.

I could see the Saints coming out flat here.

Consider these factors: They are coming off a huge emotional win, they are playing an out-of-conference game on the road and they have a huge divisional game on deck.

All of that equals a trap game for the Saints.

Miami 26, New Orleans 23.

 

Dallas (4.5) vs. Atlanta

The standard game where the Cowboys look good against a team that we think is pretty good. All will be good in the Jerryworld this weekend.

Dallas 20, Atlanta 14.

 

New York Giants (-7) vs. Arizona

Oh sweet Lord.

Arizona is traveling East. Check.

Back-to-back road games for the Cardinals. Check.

Giants are coming off an embarrassing loss. Check.

Yeah. The Cardinals get tuned up here.

New York 32, Arizona 17.

 

Washington (+7) vs. Philadelphia

If you have nothing to do on Monday night, please do not watch this game. You will never watch another football game in your life if you watch this slop.

Neither team is playing well on offense.

The farce known as the Eagles offense can’t run the ball and they are putting up numbers against terrible defenses.

The Redskins meanwhile boast a pretty decent defense, but the offense never got the memo that the season started in September.

I can’t believe the Over/Under is 37. I think these teams could play two games and not get to this total. Well, not quite, but you get the point.

Philadelphia 13, Washington 10.

 

Cincinnati (-1) vs. Chicago

Jay Cutler stinks and so does that offense.

On a side note: I really hope you don’t have Matt Forte on your fantasy team because he’s a complete stiff.

Cincinnati 20, Chicago 13.

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Free NFL Picks: Week Six

I feel your pain little fella. The NFL is becoming almost unwatchable.

If it weren’t for gambling I don’t think anyone could watch an entire Sunday slate of the slop that is called the NFL.

And how in the world does DirecTV make money with their Sunday Ticket?

I would love to know the ratings for the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Buffalo Bills this weekend.

Or how about the Jacksonville Jaguars squaring off against the mighty Seattle Seahawks?

Perhaps you were glued to the TV watching the St. Louis Rams continue their quest to 0-16 or the San Francisco 49ers look like frauds against the Atlanta Falcons.

There were three good games this week. First was the Cincinnati Bengals upsetting the Baltimore Ravens, second was the New England Patriots going down on the road to the Denver Broncos game and third came Monday with the New York Jets were exposed by the Miami Dolphins.

Who had all three and was on the right said of all three?

Your most favorite free handicapper in the world of course.

Don’t tell me the Cowboys game was good. There is nothing exciting about watching an incredibly average Dallas Cowboys team scratch and claw their way back to victory against a terrible Kansas City Chiefs team.

You can’t convince me it was good football in anyway. And if you are entertained by poor tackling, stupid coaching and a bunch of stiffs competing against each other, then you’re a better man than I.

As stated before I am a Philadelphia Eagles fan so I must admit that I hate Dallas. At the same time I will tell you the Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers game was just as pathetic to take in.

The Eagles defense was letting up huge chunks of yardage all day only to get bailed out by poor decisions made by Bucs QB Josh Johnson. The kid looked really good at times, but the pressure got to him every now and then.

Week Five ended with a 5-2 record and my overall record increased to 22-13, which puts me above the magical 60% clip.

The only thing more consistent then my winning weeks is the fact that the NFL continues to give us terrible matchups week in and week out. Next week I will offer a suggestion to Roger Goodell on how to fix this hot mess he serves you every weekend.

My selection appears first, then something witty and insightful followed a complete random guess for a score and then bang…you’re payin’ off the mortgage or taking the wifey on a nice vacation.

 

Philadelphia (-14) @ Oakland

Donovan is going to toss the pigskin all over the lot and put up some gaudy numbers once again. The only thing that stinks about this Eagles season is that there is no way to measure this team’s identity yet.

All of their wins came against teams that did not have a win when they played them. The trend continues this weekend as well in a big way.

The anticipation is building for this game and I have to wait until 4:00 p.m. to watch it? How in the world can I pass the time?

Philadelphia 42 – Oakland 16

 

Pittsburgh (-14) vs. Cleveland

I know what I can do before the Eagles game: I can watch this embarrassment.

Okay, here is the prop bet of the week. Which side will record a higher total: Derek Anderson total completions vs. Ben Roethlisberger total touchdown passes?

I know it’s intriguing.

Pittsburgh 36 – Cleveland 3

 

San Diego (-3.5) vs. Denver

I have been all over Denver the past couple weeks and told you there were going to win outright against the Cowboys and Patriots. So please don’t tell me I am discrediting this team.

After two emotional wins at home the Broncos have to go on the road to play on Monday Night against a division rival who is coming off a bye.

This is not a good spot for the Broncos at all.

San Diego 24 – Denver 10

 

Seattle (-3) vs. Arizona

The is the classic game where Arizona gets their doors blown off on the road. Think back to the Jets, Pats or Eagles games from last year.

I know the Seahawks are not in a class of those other teams so I will not chalk up a 40-point blowout. But I can’t ignore how bad the Cardinals are on the road.

Seattle 27 – Arizona 10

 

Tennessee (+9.5) @ New England

I know the Titans stink this year, but these Pats are not right this year either.

The Pats defensive line stinks and that does not bode well for them when they matchup against Tennessee.

I don’t care who you face in the NFL. If you give a quarterback enough time he will pick you apart. This applies to stiffs too, even Kerry Collins.

And with a poor defensive line the Titans should be able to run the ball with Chris Johnson.

This line should be around six points, but the linemaker knows everyone wants to think the Pats are going to bounce back so the line is inflated here.

My underdogs having been winning a lot of games outright, so here we go.

Tennessee 27 – New England 21

 

New York Giants (+3) @ New Orleans

You don’t beat the Saints by trying to outscore them. You do it by grinding them out and wearing them down.

I’m sure everyone thinks Eli Manning is going to have to be spectacular to win this game. I think the player to watch out for is Brandon Jacobs.

He can wear down the Saints, allow the Giants to eat up the clock and most importantly: Keep the Saints offense on the sidelines.

New York Giants 24 – New Orleans 16

 

Baltimore (+3) @ Minnesota

The Ravens run defense got lit up last week relatively speaking. This week Adrian Peterson gets a crack at Ray Lewis and Co.

I think the Ravens limit Peterson’s effectiveness and make Minnesota a one-dimensional team.

Brett Favre reminds us of his turnover problems in this one.

Baltimore 27 – Minnesota 23

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Free NFL Picks: Week Five

Are those tasty treats?

Nope.

That my friend is the out-of-division schedule played by the NFC East.

I can’t wait until these teams are done with this pathetic schedule and actually start playing legitimate teams outside of the division.

Now I must admit that I am a diehard Philadelphia Eagles fan, but even they are the beneficiaries of an incredibly soft schedule thus far.

The best team in the division is the New York Giants and there is not much of a debate about that right now.

But how legit are they?

The Giants have wins over the Redskins (2-2), Dallas (2-2), Tampa Bay (0-4), and Kansas City (0-4). That is a combined 4-12 record.

The sad part is that it is the best record compared to the rest of the division.

Check this out.

The Eagles have wins over Carolina (0-3) and Kansas City (0-4). A quick use of the calculator shows the Birds have beaten teams with a combined 0-7 record.

The Redskins have wins over the Rams (0-4) and Tampa Bay (0-4). That’s an 0-8 record.

As for the Dallas Cowboys, they have wins over Tampa Bay (0-4) and Carolina (0-3). You got it, a combined 0-7.

This means that only the New York Giants have registered a win against another team that has picked up a win this season.

But wait, it gets better.

The Eagles play Tampa Bay this week (0-4), the Giants get the Raiders (0-4), the Redskins get the Panthers (0-4) and the Cowboys get Kansas City (0-4).

Is this really going on? Can we get an investigation into this?

Anyway, four weeks are in the books and each one has brought me a winning week. It was only a 4-3 week, but the record goes up to 17-11 and the winning percentage sits at 60 percent.

I think it is safe to say that the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys will pick up wins. The Redskins could definitely go down on the road. But the real question is: Who will cover the number?

My selection for each game is the first team in the heading. Read what I got and maybe you’ll blow your entire life savings.

 

Raiders (+17) @ N.Y. Giants

I honestly believe that Eli Manning sits this one out or sees limited playing time. I could also see the entire Giants team looking ahead to the Saints game next week. The Giants might be up by as many as 30 and get backdoored.

N.Y. Giants 30, Oakland 17

 

Philadelphia (-15) vs. Tampa Bay

The Eagles feast on teams like this at home. I can’t help but think back to games like Detroit and St. Louis when the Eagles put up some points. They did the same thing this year to the Chiefs, but then again who hasn’t?

Donovan McNabb will have a huge day and the Eagles defense will look impressive against another dreadful offense.

Philadelphia 45, Tampa Bay 13

 

Denver (+3.5) vs. New England

Let me get this straight. New England won 41-7 last year against the Broncos, they are coming off a win against one of the best teams in the NFL, and they are only laying 3.5 points against the Broncos?

The line doesn’t make sense to me at all.

I think the Broncos got pretty lucky in wins against Cincinnati and Dallas. They should be at least six-point dogs here, but the line maker says otherwise so I will go with the line maker here.

Denver 27, New England 20

 

Arizona (-5.5) vs. Houston

I know what you’re thinking. “This game is going to be a shootout so whatever team gets hot with the passing game will win.”

I think the run game is more vital to either team’s success.

Houston needs to run the ball better to open up their passing attack. Unfortunately for them the Cardinals are pretty stout against the run at home.

Arizona 32, Houston 20

 

Carolina (-4) vs. Washington

Whenever I see a team with no wins, and they’re a favorite I take them.

This game is going to be boring and flat out ugly. Could Jim Zorn get fired after this game?

Carolina 27, Washington 16

 

Cincinnati (+8.5) vs. Baltimore

The Ravens are coming off an emotionally and physically draining loss, and the Bengals come off an emotionally and physically draining win.

I expect both teams to come out flat, which means points are a premium here.

Toss in the fact that the Ravens are giving up too many points and I can’t resist the temptation to take the Bengals

Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 14

 

Miami (+1.5) vs. N.Y. Jets

So last week Miami was a pick ‘em against the Bills. This week they get a Jets team that everyone thinks is a top-10 team and they are only catching 1.5 points?

What is going on here?

Aren’t the mighty Jets supposed to bounce back in a big way against a Dolphins squad that is starting…gulp, Chad Henne?

Someone knows something so I’m trusting that someone.

Miami 17, N.Y. Jets 9

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Free NFL Picks: Week Three

This week I want to touch on the ebb and flow theory of betting.

It is not a complicated theory, but it can be difficult to pull the trigger on certain bets. As a rule when it comes to following the ebb and flow theory: Don’t waiver on your decisions.

You may drop two bets in row following the theory, but that does not mean you jump ship and bet differently in the third game.

The ebb and flow theory basically goes something like this: Find a team coming off an emotional win playing against a team that looks down in the dumps and bet against the team that is riding a high wave of emotions.

Last week Cincinnati fell into this role when it took on Green Bay. As it turned out, the Bengals won the game outright as nine-point pooches. It was a nice win to pick up along with the N.Y. Jets, but in the end it was only a 4-3 week. On the season I improved to 9-5.

Take one step further. Look at the poor S.O.B. in the picture above. He looks like he might cry. You would think it’s because of the get-up, but who knows what’s going on in his mind.

Well guess what? Even someone like him is going to have things fall in his favor at somepoint.

As usual the team I like appears first with the points in parentheses. Each game has a short write-up because let’s be honest, people just want the pick and no necessarily my reasoning for it.

 

Tennessee (+2.5) @ N.Y. Jets

The Jets won a huge game on the road to open the season and then last week they won their Super Bowl as they knocked off the New England Patriots.

On the other side of the coin you have a Titans team that lost a defensive battle in Week One to Pittsburgh and then lost in a shootout to Houston in Week Two.

So why the Titans here?

It’s all about the ebb and flow theory.

The Jets come back to reality in a rather harsh way. This is not a sign of things to come. It’s just tough to constantly play at your best week in and week out. Toss in the fact the Titans must win and I will go with the Titans

Tennessee 23 – N.Y. Jets 10

 

N.Y. Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs are the worst team in the NFL so as long they are laying single digits I will bet against them. This kind of falls into the ebb and flow theory because the Giants are coming off an emotional win against the Cowboys.

However, the one problem is that Tampa Bay does not have the talent to get themselves up off the turf after being knocked down two weeks in a row

N.Y. Giants 34 – Tampa Bay 17

 

Detroit (+6.5) vs. Washington

This is it people.

The Detroit Lions will not only cover the number, but they will win the game. The line maker believes this is going to be a close game, which is more than I need to sway my decision.

If the line maker is saying it’s a close game, I’m buying into it.

Detroit 19 – Washington 17

 

San Diego (-6) vs. Miami

The Chargers aren’t first in their division?

Seriously?

Well the Dolphins are the perfect remedy. The Fish are coming off a gut-wrenching defeat, playing on a short week, and they are flying cross country.

San Diego 32 – Miami 16

 

Carolina (+9) @ Dallas

The two dumbest quarterbacks collide on Monday Night.

Do yourself a favor and play a drinking game. Every time Tony Romo or Jake Delhomme does something dumb, take a shot.

You’ll be wasted before halftime.

With such poor play on both sides of the ball I’ll take the points.

I honestly believe Delhomme can exploit a Cowboys defense that is giving up far too many big plays this year.

Dallas 31 – Carolina 28

 

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) @ Arizona

The Colts can’t stop the run and the Cardinals don’t run very well.

Perfect, take the Colts plus the points here.

Call me a hater, but the Cardinals are frauds. Complete and utter frauds.

I know what everyone is saying too, “The Cardinals won at Jacksonville big and the Colts barely beat that same team at home. The Cardinals are definitely going to win.”

If you use that logic, you’re definitely an idiot.

Indianapolis 31 – Arizona 24

 

Buffalo (+6) vs. New Orleans

The Over/Under on this game is at 52 with a six-point spread. This means the line maker thinks the Bills can move the ball on the Saints.

I know Drew Brees is on fire right now, but that defense flat out stinks.

Think about this: The Saints opened the season against two quarterbacks making their NFL debut, I don’t know if and when that’s ever happened.

The Saints defense is flat out terrible, which is why they won’t cover the number here.

New Orleans 30 – Buffalo 27

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Free NFL Picks: Week One

About two months ago it looked like the state of Delaware was going to hit the jackpot with sports betting.

They were in line to have single-game betting cards for the two most lucrative sports entities: The NFL and the NCAA.

It was a win-win for everyone involved.

The state was going to rake in the money while the local degenerate was going to get legitimate lines, easy payouts, and the safety from any bookies that might go a little nuts if they don’t get paid on time.

But then everyone sued and in the end everyone lost.

Ultimately the state of Delaware was told they could have three-team parlay cards only involving NFL games.

This is even worse because a parlay is the biggest sucker bet known to mankind. It is even worse than the teasers that are available from your local “guy.”

In fact, if there is one piece of advice you take away let it be this: Don’t parlay bets and don’t tease them.

If you like a game, bet it. If you think you need points to make it a good bet then it is not worth putting money on in the first place. Parlays are the recipe for disaster. If you’re going to go 2-for-1 you better make money.

I won’t have a set number of games I take per week. If I like it, I bet it. It’s really that simple. The team I am taking appears first in the  match up with the points in parentheses. I am going to keep it short and to the point.

 

Pittsburgh (-6) vs. Tennessee

The Steelers are playing with a ton of revenge on their minds. The Titans put a beat down on the ‘Burgh 31-14 in Week 16 as Titans players trashed the Terrible Towels on the sideline, blah, blah, blah.

In the end I love the Steelers defense going up against a very poor Titans offense. Look for a lot of three and outs, which will cause the Titans defense to wear down late in the game.

The Titans hang around for a half and then get blown out.

Pittsburgh 31, Tennessee 14

 

Dallas (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers have the worst team in the NFL. Bet against them early because they are going to be double digit dogs once everyone realizes how bad they are.

Dallas 37, Tampa Bay 13

 

Washington (+6.5) @ N.Y. Giants

Neither team is going to move the ball as both teams boast some of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Redskins secondary should feast on Eli Manning without a legitimate passing threat while the Giants defensive line should get pressure against a revamped offensive line that may struggle at times early in the year.

Washington 17, N.Y. Giants 16

 

Seattle (-8.5) vs. St. Louis

The Seahawks swept the series last year and even tuned up the lowly Rams 37-13 in Seattle in Week Three.

History repeats itself two weeks ahead of schedule.

Seattle 37, St. Louis 13

 

Green Bay (-3.5) vs. Chicago

Aaron Rodgers is the real deal. The kid will get sweet revenge when he embarrasses Favre twice this season.

For now, he will show the entire country how good he is when he picks up a huge win for the Packers on Monday Night Football.

Green Bay 27, Chicago 20

 

Houston (-5) vs. N.Y. Jets

Mark Sanchez makes his rookie debut on the road against what I believe is going to be the surprise team of the NFL.

This is a tough spot for Sanchez because he is going to be asked to do a lot as he will be asked to try to outscore a potent Texans offense.

Sanchez will make some plays, but he is also going to make too many mistakes.

Hang in there Jets fans, Sanchez is going to be good.

Houston 38, N.Y. Jets 20

 

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) vs. Detroit

You can take what I said about the Jets and Sanchez and put it down here.

Rookie QB Matt Stafford at least gets to face an easier defense in the Saints, but it won’t matter in the end.

New Orleans 42, Detroit 21

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Preseason Predictions: A Total Crap Shoot

So you think you know who is going to win the Super Bowl this year?

I doubt you can correctly predict two divisional winners in the NFC let alone the team that will hoist up the Vince Lombardi trophy.

And if you don’t think this year isn’t a crap shoot, consider this:

The Patriots are the team to beat according to Vegas odds and yet they didn’t even make the playoffs last year.

I know it was because of Tom Brady’s injury, but it is rare to see a team miss the playoffs one year and then be considered the favorite to win it all the next season. I don’t care what the circumstances are, it doesn’t happen too often.

Some of the experts say the Chargers are a lock to win the AFC West even though those same pundits want you to believe that LaDainian Tomlinson is in the midst of a decline.

The Philadelphia Eagles are considered the best team in the NFC fresh off their mediocre 9-6-1 season and with an offensive line that is in shambles.

And then there are those who say the Indianapolis Colts are set up to win another Super Bowl despite the fact that the coaching staff is revamped.

None if it makes sense, which is why I am rolling with all of those teams.

The way I look at it is simple: If I’m wrong I look like 99.9 percent of the public who couldn’t figure out this mess. And if I’m right? Well, I doubt that is going to happen.

But if Kurt Warner can lead the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl anything can happen including my predictions.

Wild Card teams have an asterisk, conference rank in parentheses.

I will pick each division and provide a brief synopsis. Playoff results are at the end along with league awards, busts, sleepers, and the coach to get fired first.

 

NFC East

1. New York Giants (1)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (5)*

3. Washington Redskins (6)*

4. Dallas Cowboys

The Giants have the best defense in the NFC and it will show throughout the year. They will be set up to run away with the division, but Eli Manning keeps this talented team in check. The Redskins defense will prove to be second best in the NFC.

 

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers (3)

2. Chicago Bears

3. Minnesota Vikings

4. Detroit Lions

Last year we marveled over the development of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco as rookies. This year we realize Aaron Rodgers is the best young quarterback in the league.

 

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints (2)

2. Carolina Panthers

3. Atlanta Falcons

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With any kind of defensive effort the Saints will give the Giants a run for home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Bucs will be the worst team in the NFL.

 

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks (4)

2. Arizona Cardinals

3. San Francisco 49ers

4. St. Louis Rams

In a word the Cardinals are: frauds. 9-7 could run away with this division once again.

 

AFC East

1. New England Patriots (2)

2. Buffalo Bills (6)*

3. New York Jets

4. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins and Pats go back to where they belong. Order is not completely restored as the Bills make the playoffs.

 

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (4)

2. Cincinnati Bengals

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. Cleveland Browns

Carson Palmer and Ochocinco caused the Bengals lots of problems last year. This time around the duo gives other teams fits.

 

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts (1)

2. Houston Texans (5)*

3. Tennessee Titans

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson light it up this year as the Houston Texans make their first appearance in the postseason.

 

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers (3)

2. Oakland Raiders

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Denver Broncos

I am on the record saying that L.T. is nowhere near being done. Raiders fans shouldn’t be excited about finishing second in this division as 6-10 could land them there.

 

NFC Playoffs:

Philadelphia Eagles defeat Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers defeat Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles defeat New York Giants

New Orleans Saints defeat Green Bay Packers

Philadelphia Eagles defeat New Orleans Saints

 

AFC Playoffs:

Pittsburgh Steelers defeat Houston Texans

San Diego Chargers defeat Buffalo Bills

Indianapolis Colts defeat Pittsburgh Steelers

New England Patriots defeat San Diego Chargers

Indianapolis Colts defeat New England Patriots

 

Super Bowl XLIV

Indianapolis Colts defeat Philadelphia Eagles

This would be a terrible matchup for the Eagles. Peyton Manning loves to face the blitz-happy defense of the Eagles. He will exploit it early and often as the Colts turn back the clock and give us one of this blowout Super Bowl games.

 

Awards:

League MVP: Peyton Manning (Colts)

Offensive MVP: Adrian Peterson (Vikings)

Defensive MVP: Asante Samuel (Eagles)

Offensive Rookie of the year: Chris Wells (Cardinals)

Defensive Rookie of the year: Brian Orakpo (Redskins)

Coach of the Year:  Gary Kubiak (Texans)

Biggest Busts:

Team: Tennessee Titans

Offensive Player: Brett Favre (Vikings)

Defensive Player: Ray Lewis (Ravens)

Coach: Josh McDaniels (Broncos)

Coach to get fired first: Jack Del Rio (Jaguars)

 

Surprises:

Team: Buffalo Bills

Offensive Player: Matt Schaub (Texans)

Defensive Player: Brian Dawkins (Broncos)

 

The “New Michael Vick Experience”

Do you remember the “Michael Vick Experience” commercial?

For those who don’t recall it let me try to refresh your memory.

A young fan is loaded into a roller coaster seat and sent out onto a playing field where he is terrified by would-be tacklers. Just when it seems like the ride is about to end the fan evades a defender thanks to the seat he is strapped into. As the fan approaches the paydirt he is sent into the air and flips into the endzone where is left gasping for air while having a look on his face that says, “Did that just happen?”

Part of you found the commercial comical because the kid was screaming as if he were being chased through the woods by some crazed maniac. The other part of you also laughed because some of it was true.

Vick had an instinct that doesn’t come along too often. And it made us think that he really could pull off some of the things we saw in the commercial.

He knew where defenders were on the field when he ran and he knew how to make them miss. At times he looked like Gale Sayers on his feet.

He had breakaway speed like Eric Dickerson and he could see the field like Barry Sanders.

With talent like that why wouldn’t you want to get on the “Michael Vick Experience?”

Hopefully, Nike doesn’t come out with another ad like that because the fan will be left standing on a sideline with a clipboard in his hands for about 90% of the ride. Maybe they will get some Gatorade or sunflower seeds to chew on to help pass the time, too.

Could the other 10% be much better?

If you are patient it could be worth the wait.

Occasionally the fan will get into the game, line up as a wide receiver, running back or as a quarterback either under center or in the shotgun.

And when the fan enters the field in the “New Michael Vick Experience” there is a chance he could be left standing there acting as a decoy.

Every now and then a lucky rider may catch a pass from Donovan McNabb, hand the ball off to Brian Westbrook, or maybe just maybe score a touchdown.

The “New Michael Vick Experience” is how fans need to anticipate the return of Vick to the Philadelphia Eagles.

I am sure Vick will sporadically make great plays like he once did, but there is no way you can miss two years of football and simply walk back onto the field and not miss a step.

The new ride might be a little slower and there may be some kinks that stop it from running smoothly, but the fans need to be patient and wait for the payoff.

In fact, everyone needs to be patient.

Andy Reid understands this, which is why he will use Vick sparingly throughout the season. It is the most effective way to use him too.

Let’s face it; Vick is not a great quarterback. He is however a great football player. It is up to Reid to determine how to get the most out of Vick.

The best way to do this is to limit his playing time and not get caught up in the hype of the Wildcat offense and the desire to hop back on the old ride.

If you use Vick too much his weaknesses will eventually be exposed and his offensive threats will become useless. It will also give teams more film to study and the opportunity to figure out how to stop the Eagles’ version of the Wildcat.

But if Vick is used at the proper time the Eagles could have a ton of success with him in there.

Think about the flea-flicker for a moment. When you see it used and it is executed perfectly it tends to produce big plays.

So why not do it every play?                       

We all know the element of surprise makes the flea-flicker work well. Coaches also set up defenses an entire game for that one moment to pull off a game changing play.

The same applies to the “New Michael Vick Experience.” Fans will go on a ride that does not seem to be too entertaining until all of a sudden Reid calls Vick’s number.

Eagles’ fans should not expect too much from Vick. And even when he does get on the field you still shouldn’t expect a whole lot. But when he is given the opportunity to make a play happen the wait will be well worth it.

The “New Michael Vick Experience” may not start running again until Week Six of the regular season, but once it gets rolling there is a chance it could produce some intensely gratifying results as long as you stay patient.

 

« Previous Page — Next Page »

NFL Sport Channel Latest

• Just How Far Would You Go?
• Sorry Rex, But It Isn’t Happening
• Super Bowl Predictions: Five Stat-Free Reasons Why the Eagles Will Reach The Super Bowl
• Seahawks Attempt to Turn Corner With Heavy Pursuit of Pete Carroll
• Bill Cowher Unlikely to Coach in 2010