Black and Gold X’s and O’s | An Analytic Review of the Saints Offense in 2008

The 2008 New Orleans Saints were at times an explosive offense, but their short-yardage struggles are both baffling and cause for concern going into 2009.

I believe I have come up with a formula for success that will propel New Orleans towards a successful season.

Limiting the amount of throws to no more than 35 is usually an indicator of a winning team. If a team throws more than 35 passes in a game, the chances of winning are quite low.

I will look game by game at the New Orleans Saints’ attempts and effectiveness, both in rushing and passing.

From there, I will give you my formula for offensive balance that head coach Sean Payton would be best suited to follow in 2009.

Week One vs. Tampa Bay—Win

In the opening week victory over Tampa Bay, quarterback Drew Brees threw the ball only 32 times. His efficiency was one key to victory in that game, as he completed 22 of his passes for 343 yards and three touchdowns, with only one interception.  

His completion percentage was above 68 percent. His yards per attempt was 10.72, which is an incredible figure.

And his TD/PA attempt ratio was 10.67, also an incredible figure. The TD/Completion figure was even more impressive at 7.33.

If a QB is throwing for a touchdown every seven completions, you’re going to be successful.

The rushing numbers are good, but not great. The Saints had 24 attempts for 103 yards and zero touchdowns. However, an average of 4.3 yards per attempt is considered good in the NFL.

 

Week Two @ Washington—Loss

The Redskins game was one of the most disappointing games of the season. The Saints had a lead in the fourth quarter, which they eventually coughed up.

Brees was not nearly as efficient as he was the week before.

Brees was 22-of-33 for 216 yards and one TD with two interceptions. His 66 percent completion rate was good, but his yards per attempt—6.54—was mediocre at best. His yards per completion—a little less than 10—was average.

And the one touchdown for 33 attempts is nothing spectacular. Neither is the one interception per 17.5 attempts.

The Saints’ inability to run the ball was highlighted by a mere 55 yards on 19 attempts with one touchdown.

It was surprising to even have a lead in the fourth quarter with such a poor effort on the ground.

With a horrific average of 3.0 per attempt, the only bright spot was the one touchdown.

 

Week Three @ Denver—Loss

Don’t blame Drew Brees for the loss to Denver.

He completed 39 of 48 for 421 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions.

He almost willed the team to victory all by his lonesome. His yards per attempt—8.77—was very respectable. But truthfully, it’s too many attempts.

The Saints produced three touchdowns on the ground with 24 carries for 88 yards. 

The yards per attempt is not even four, but one touchdown for every eight carries is very good. It made up for Brees’ one touchdown in 48 attempts.

In all, it was a tremendous offensive showing, but defense and kicking were the main problem in this loss.

Week Four vs. San Francisco—Win

The Week Four spanking of the 49ers was one of Brees’ better games on the season.

He was 25-of-35 for 363 yards and three touchdowns with only one interception. His completion percentage was 71.4. His yards per attempt was 10.37. And the touchdown-to-attempts ratio of 11.67 was very good. Also, three touchdowns per every 8.33 completions is outstanding.

The running game was OK in this game, with 31 attempts for 105 yards and one touchdown. While the yards-per-attempt was 3.38, the one touchdown made up for it a bit. The best part is 31—the number of attempts.

It was the highest number to that point in the season, and played a large role in the win.

Week Five vs. Minnesota—Loss

This game still brings back painful memories. I’m sure every Saints fan is still groaning when they think of this game. I know I still am.

Brees seemed to lose some of his focus as he performed well below his normal effectiveness.

He was 26-of-46 (56.5 completion percentage). The yardage total was 330, and was accompanied by just one TD to two interceptions.

His 7.17 yards per attempt number was nothing spectacular. The two interceptions came at inopportune times. All in all, it was a frustrating game for Brees.

And he wasn’t helped by his running game.

The Saints carried the ball only 19 times for a season-low (at the time) 53 yards, with zero touchdowns. The Saints’ 2.78 yards per attempt was egregious.

It’s almost impossible to win a game that way, yet they almost did.

Week Six vs. Oakland—Win

A fire was lit under Brees in the Week Six win over Oakland.

He was 26-of-30 for 320 yards and three TDs. That is good for an 86.67 completion percentage. His yards per attempt was 10.67.

Brees had three touchdowns in 30 attempts, which averages to about one TD for every 10 attempts.

Those statistics are incredible.

The running game performed better as well.

The Saints’ 32 attempts for 115 yards and a TD is nothing to write home to mom about. While that’s only a 3.59 yards-per-carry ratio, the number of attempts was the exciting part.

 

Week Seven @ Carolina—Loss

It didn’t take the Saints long to fall into their old habits. In fact, it only took one game.

After the best offensive game of the season came the worst.

Brees threw for 21-of-39 for 231 yards with zero TDs and one interception.

The 5.92 yards per attempt was Brees’ worst mark of the season.

The running game was more efficient, with 22 carries for 115 yards (5.22 yards per  attempt) and one touchdown. That’s still not enough attempts to win, though.

 

Week Eight vs. San Diego—Win

This was another good rebound game for the Saints offense.

Brees was 30-of-41 (73.1 percent) for 339 yards and three TDs. Brees threw for 8.27 yards per attempt. More importantly, he threw zero interceptions and had a touchdown pass for every 12.5 throws.

The running game was better as well. The Saints had 25 attempts for 96 yards with two TDs for one of the more efficient games to this point in the year. The Saints’ 3.84 yards per carry was not great, but wasn’t horrible, especially with two TDs.

If the Saints had 25 rushing attempts per game, then they could be a more efficient team.

 

Week 10 @ Atlanta—Loss

This was one of the least efficient outings of the season for Brees. He threw 58 times, and only completed 31 of those. His 422 yards made his yards per attempt number a less than average 7.27.

And his three interceptions in 58 attempts (one per 19.33) is not ideal. Plus, two TDs for 58 throws is not Brees-esque.

The Saints’ 15 carries for 95 yards is good (6.33 yards an attempt), but the limited number of carries means this was still a poor running game overall. And the lack of TDs hurts as well.

Of course, these numbers are skewed because they had to throw in order to get back in the game.

 

Week 11 @ Kansas City—Win

If you haven’t noticed the trend yet, I don’t know what it’s going to take to wake you up. One good week, one bad week, one good week, and so on. Well, this was a good week.

Brees was a much more efficient 25-for-36 (69.4 percent) for 266 yards (7.38 per attempt). The per-attempt number isn’t his best, but considering the way he had been playing (except for the San Diego game), let’s give him a break. His one TD/one interception game isn’t great, but acceptable.

Not a bad bounce-back week for Mr. Brees.

He was also aided by an efficient running game—25-for-105 with two TDs. The 4.2 yards per attempt and two touchdown performance made this one of the better rushing games of the season.

 

Week 12 vs. Green Bay—Win

Hey, they put back-to-back games together for once…(Bronx Cheer follows).

Brees had his second most efficient game of the season. This time he was 20 of 27 (74 percent) for 323 yards and four TDs with only one pick.

This was his best yards-per-attempt game, at 11.96. His one TD per 6.75 attempts was the best as well. The only thing stopping this from being his most efficient game was the one interception, and a lower completion percentage than in the Oakland game.

The running game was not very efficient, but did a good job of getting in the end zone. It ended the night 26 carries for 98 yards and three TDs.

Most of this belonged to Pierre Thomas.

Nonetheless, 3.77 yards per carry is not horrible when you are so efficient throwing the football. Also, one touchdown for every 8.67 carries is quite good.

 

Week 13 @ Tampa Bay—Loss

Another disappointing game, again, after a good performance.

Brees was 25-for-47 for 296 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions.

The running game was its least efficient self of the season, 18 carries for 44 yards (2.44 yards per carry). And it never got in the end zone.

 

Week 14 vs. Atlanta—Win

As was generally the case, the Saints offense responded quite well. Brees was 18-of-32 for 230 yards, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Again, efficient with fewer than 35 throws.

Add to it a running game that managed 184 yards in only 28 attempts (6.57), along with a touchdown. No wonder the Saints won this game.

 

Week 15 @ Chicago—Loss

Chicago has been the place of death for the Saints season for three years running now. In 2008, Brees was OK.

He completed 24-of-43 passes for 232 yards with two TDs and two interceptions.

The running game almost got its treasured 4.0 yards per carry mark, but fell just shy (3.87) as they had 31 carries for 120 yards and one touchdown. 

This is one of the games where the running game outperformed Drew Brees.

 

Week 16 @ Detroit—Win

I’m almost embarrassed including this game in this, since it was basically an automatic win. Nonetheless, it is the NFL, and the data would be skewed if I did not.

This was another very balanced effort as Brees threw 40 times, completing exactly 75 percent (30) of his passes.

On his way to 351 yards, he threw two TD passes, and none of his attempts ended up in the arms of Lions defenders.

His 8.78 yards per attempt is good. This was probably his third-best game of the season.

The running game also looked good. This was its most efficient game of the season, as it scored four times on 27 carries (one every 6.75). The 184 yards made the yards-per-carry number 6.81.

I would say the game against Atlanta was more impressive, though, because of the quality of opponent.

 

Week Seventeen vs. Carolina—Loss

This game is another I would like to throw out, as Sean Payton had no intention of staying balanced in this game. He just wanted to get Brees the passing-yardage record. The team almost won the game, despite Drew throwing the ball 49 times.

Brees completed more than 60 percent of his passes (30 completions) for 386 yards with four TDs and only one interception.

The Saints’ 11 runs for 50 yards is almost 5.0 yards per carry, but it’s tough to win when you only run the football 11 times.

Give credit to Brees and company for being so efficient in the passing game.

In the eight games the Saints won, they threw the ball 273 times. That’s 34.125 per game.

In the eight they lost, they threw it 363 times. That is 45.375 times per game.

An 11 passes-per-game difference in wins and losses seems to be a big difference. I’ve already indicated that Brees was much more efficient when he threw the ball less. This seems to indicate the Saints need to attempt to keep the pass attempts at or below 35 per game.

As far as the running game goes, in the eight wins, 218 runs were tried. That’s good for 27.25 per game. In the eight losses, the number was 159, or 19.875 (let’s say 20).

The Saints should focus on throwing the ball no more than 35 times per game and running it upwards of 25 times per game. If a team can do that, they are likely to win enough games to make the playoffs.

Geaux Saints!

Black and Gold X’s and O’s—A Debate: Vincent Jackson or Marques Colston?

This is the second of a three part series asking which Saint or Charger you would rather have.

All statistics taken from nfl.com Player Pages.

Besides the fact that I’m a student at San Diego State and have played basketball alongside Vincent Jackson, I am completely unbiased on this question.

I have a Marques Colston Saints jersey, yet consider Jackson my favorite receiver (other than Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, but they don’t count).

I love big receivers.

It’s probably no secret given the players I have as my four favorite receivers. Plus, Andre Johnson is my fifth favorite.

The numbers say Colston has been a more productive receiver in his three seasons in the NFL than Jackson has in his four. When looking at the statistics, Colston had only 12 fewer catches, roughly 400 yards less, and three fewer touchdown receptions despite missing five full games and parts of another in 2008.

But a closer look at the statistics tells us a different story.

Jackson has improved steadily each season he’s been in the league. He went from just three catches in his rookie season out of Northern Colorado, to 27, 41, and finally 59 a season ago.

I personally believe Jackson was worthy of a Pro Bowl berth a season ago, or would have been had he reached the end zone a few more times. I say this because 18.6 yards per reception is one of the highest figures in the entire league.

Truth be told, Jackson almost always catches the ball at least 10 yards down the field, which helps his ratio.

An even deeper look at the stats shows Jackson to be a very clutch receiver.

On completions where the play began inside the Chargers own twenty yard line, Jackson averaged 28.3 yards per reception and had two plays of 40+ yards.   

When the pass was completed in the red zone, Jackson caught eight passes for five touchdowns.

Even more impressive though, is that 35 of his 59 catches occurred in the Second Half of games, and 20 of those were in the fourth quarter. He had four touchdowns in the Second Half and three of them were in the fourth quarter.

Finally, one should note that 49 of his catches occurred when the Chargers were behind or tied with the other team. Before you pull that old argument, “well they had to throw the ball because they were behind,” remember that the Chargers played very few games in which either team was significantly ahead of the other.

This means these catches came in key situations under a lot of pressure.

An extra little nugget to throw in there is that Jackson is generally regarded as one of the better blocking receivers in the NFL, and is the guy in the single-receiver sets who is placed in the lineup both because he is a threat to drop a bomb on the defense or punish them with some physicality to open up holes for Sproles and LT.

As for Colston, he of course was a no-name out of Hofstra in 2006, he has become New Orleans’ most well known receiver and one of the best red zone targets in the game.

A closer look at the numbers shows Colston to be very balanced over the course of a season and his career.

In ’08, he caught 26 passes in the first half and 21 in the second. Half of his receptions came when the snap was taken between the Saints 21-to-the-50 yard line, but in no other quadrant did Colston stand out.

Looking back to 2007, Colston really excelled in the same region, (21-to-50) catching 49 of a total 98 passes in said area of the field.

I don’t need a calculator to figure out that’s exactly 50 percent or half. And in 2007, more than 75 percent of his receptions took place when the team was either tied or behind.

In both seasons used for Colston, the numbers indicate that he does his best work in the second quarter.

Perhaps most telling is that Colston is not the guy the Saints want in the game in obvious run downs.

That guy, as crazy as it may seem, is Robert Meachem.

He is the primary single-receiver when the Saints go to two tight end and two back sets.

Finally, both receivers are used at times in the slot position.

This is advantageous as it gives the play caller for each team—the head coach for both teams—an opportunity to gain matchup advantages on smaller defensive backs or safeties/linebackers.

It also could force defenses to choose a coverage which puts more defenders inside the hashes, opening up the outside for players such as Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Chris Chambers, and Legedu Naane.

So, the question is…who would you rather have?

The numbers seem to point to Marques Colston being slightly overrated. Likewise, Vincent Jackson appears to be slightly underrated.

The fact he can do all the same things as Colston and is a better blocker actually makes me think Jackson is the better receiver.

Both teams have great options to compliment these players, so the more a player does and the more clutch they are, the better they are…in my opinion.

But tell me what you think.

Black and Gold X’s and O’s | Why Is Drew Brees SO Good?

I am writing this about an hour after the Anaheim Ducks were eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs in an epic Game Seven matchup. I needed something to cheer me up, and the first thing I thought of was how amazing of a season Saints QB Drew Brees had a season ago.

For those of you who regularly read my columns, I appreciate stats, but do not like to make too much out of them. That is why 5,069 yards isn’t as impressive to me as the way Drew Brees plays the position. It is like watching Leonardo Da Vinci paint the Mona Lisa or Michelangelo creating the Sistine Chapel. Simply said, it’s a thing of beauty.

In my opinion, Brees is undoubtedly the third best QB in the league, but is probably just as good (not better) than Manning and Brady. And here’s why I think so:

 

Feet

Brees has long been one of the most mobile QBs within the pocket. His ability to slide in the pocket to both avoid the rush and create his own throwing lanes is so valuable and helps the offensive line look good.

Feet also play a role in his accuracy (more on that later). The fact he can throw off his back foot across his body after sliding to his left, is something you would never coach, but part of what makes Brees so good. He keeps plays alive and with his quick feet is always a threat to pick up a key first down with his feet.

 

Accuracy

I’m not talking about completion percentage. Completion percentage means zilch, zip, nada to me. I say this because you could give Jake Delhomme a group of receivers that include Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, and Tony Gonzales and the guy’s going to register somewhere near a 70 completion percentage.

Likewise, even someone like Peyton Manning isn’t going to complete 65 percent if his receivers have bricks for hands like Braylon Edwards, Devery Henderson of 2006 or before, and Robert Royal.

My point in all this is to say that Brees can put the ball right where he wants to place it on the receiver so that he can catch it in stride and gain yards after the catch. That is true accuracy. It is also an ability to throw the ball up the seam to a Tight End, but the throw the ball behind him so that he can adjust and the linebacker or safety cannot.

If you do not believe me about how accurate Brees is, check this out. I bet you can count the number of quarterbacks who can do that, on one hand. I’m 99.9 percent sure Matthew Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, and other strong armed QBs generally not known for accuracy, could do that.

In fact, Brees has the most accurate deep ball in the entire league, even though he throws more of them than most QBs, and does not have what most would consider to be a top-10 arm among all NFL quarterbacks.

 

Mental Awareness

Brees is not the only QB this is true of, but Brees is known for spending almost the entire day at the team facility on Tuesdays, the player’s day off. Additionally, at Purdue, he was a 4.0 student who graduated in four years.

None of those things prove anything though.

What proves his mental aptitude is Brees’ decision-making. He rarely ever throws the ball into coverage, and when he does, he throws it where only his receiver can catch the ball.

The other part of this is Brees’ ability to make checks at the line of scrimmage. Sean Payton will often give Brees two plays, and gives Brees the ability to make what is called a “check-with-me” at the line.

That is why you will often see Brees slide his hand across his throat and yell “kill, kill”. He is changing the call from the original play to the second. Not every quarterback is given this opportunity, even at the NFL level. The fact Brees does it so successfully, makes him great.

 

Leadership

By now, pretty much everyone has seen an instance of Brees pumping his team up before a game by chanting “WE ARE NEW ORLEANS”! Needless to say, you don’t see too many quarterbacks doing this before, during, or after a game.

Once again, though, this is not what makes Brees such a good leader. What makes him an outstanding leader is his ability to put his team on his back and lead his team down the field, despite having next to no running game. It’s his ability to quietly guide an offense with many big-time personalities.

Think back to Nov. 9, at Atlanta. Jeremy Shockey misses a blocking assignment and leaves Brees out to dry. Some quarterbacks would say nothing, and Shockey would’ve just gone along as if nothing happened.

Instead Brees confronted Shockey and now the two respect each other, and Brees knows Shockey will not make that same mistake again. Look for Brees and Shockey to hook up quite a bit in key situations this season.

 

That It Factor

When you talk to most coaches and scouts, they’ll tell you the difference between a good quarterback and a great one, is that “it factor.” Nobody can tell you definitively what it is. But it shows itself in crunch time. It is the way a guy carries himself in the public eye, but also on the practice field.

It is something that can be observed but not explained. It cannot be coached. You either have it or you do not. It produces wins and helps players make big-time plays in big-time games. Only a handful of guys have it.

Among them, I would say are Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Roethlisberger, Rivers, and perhaps McNabb. Kurt Warner doesn’t necessarily put off it, but the results make it seem as if he does have it. Most scouts and coaches believe Jets First Round pick, Mark Sanchez, has it. 

Some ways Brees exhibits itare in the way he deals with the media (a common one), his body language after both good and bad plays (I have a theory that great QBs body language is not that different after a bad throw as it would be after a good one), and the way he’ll try to make a block or a tackle, even though QBs are not taught to do such things.

I admit I have a man crush on Brees (just kidding, sort of), but these factors show that Brees is as good a QB as there is in today’s NFL.

Black and Gold X’s and O’s | How One Cardinal Became a Saint

Ever since Jeff Faine signed a free agent contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the first day of free agency in 2008, I have been of the opinion that New Orleans had to find a young guy to become the long-term solution at the position.

If I recall correctly, there really weren’t too many young centers in the draft that looked to be superstars for years to come. So I understood the Saints passing on one last offseason and sticking with Jonathan Goodwin.

But as soon as this offseason began, I started right back up with the center talk. This is because I am of the opinion that the center position is one of the more underrated positions in the National Football League.

I went so far as to proclaim the Saints would trade down and grab Alex Mack with the 21st pick (kind of creepy how that is actually where he went). I thought draft day would definitely include some kind of move to acquire one of the young centers, since this year had one of the strongest classes in the draft’s history at that position.

But as the 2009 draft ended, it did so once again without the Saints addressing what I’ve considered to be the only need on the offensive side of the ball for the past two offseasons.

But then a day or two later, I found out that the Saints did make a move for a young center.

His name is Alex Fletcher. He is a Cardinal, so the progression from Cardinal to Saint is obviously a natural one. His christening process will take place this weekend in Metairie, Louisiana.

Let’s hope it’s a smooth one.

Let’s take a look at some of the things that make him an eligible Saint, but also some things that may prevent him from his desired destiny.

 

Player: Alex Fletcher, C, Stanford

Grade: 5.6 (Seventh Round)

Games Viewed: @ Arizona State and Texas vs. The Nation All-Star Game (plus one game in person, @ UCLA)

 

Critical Factors

SIZE                    6.0                            INITIAL QKS        6.5

PLAY STR.            6.0                            COMPETES           6.5

PLAY SPEED         6.0                            INSTINCTS           6.0

 

Strengths

Despite not possessing great balance or athleticism, Alex is good working in space and stays on his feet well enough to maintain a block. He understands schemes both ways and can make the calls.

 

He has good initial quickness after the snap. He takes up a lot of space and uses his hands well enough to keep blockers away from the QB. He is very competitive and plays through the whistle.

 

 

 

Weaknesses

 

Alex is not very strong, which makes it difficult for him in the power running game. He often gets off balance and is unable to move his defender off the ball, while sometimes getting pushed into the backfield. He needs to get lower and play with more balance.

 

He doesn’t move his feet as well as necessary, meaning he could get beat by a speed rush.

 

 

 

Summary

 

Alex is an underrated center who has the chance to make an NFL team because he is smart and has good physical ability. He is fairly quick for the center position and moves well in space.

However, he needs to greatly improve his playing strength. He gets pushed around quite a bit, especially in the run game. If he can get stronger and continue to develop in all areas of the game, he could be an undrafted gem.

---

There you have it—I believe Alex Fletcher should have been drafted and has a fantastic chance to become a good NFL center. It looks like the Saints may have found their long-term answer at the position.

Let’s hope so; otherwise you’ll have to hear me bitch and moan some more about how much we need to upgrade the position.

The Saints also signed a quarterback out of UCLA named Patrick Cowan. As a Bruin season ticket holder, I have seen the good and the bad Cowan has to offer.

 

He seems to be a winner, but that only applies when he is in the lineup. Unfortunately, those instances are few and far between.

 

He has a way of making plays, yet is definitely more of a game manager. He is not wholly accurate, but he also doesn’t turn the football over very often.

 

The fact the Saints are taking a flyer on him tells me a couple things. They like his ability to win and the fact he served as a student assistant coach under Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow a season ago. They hope he can use that experience to better prepare him for the NFL.

 

Of course, it’s also possible they just felt they needed a guy to throw the football during the rookie mini-camp. Nonetheless, they could’ve picked someone else. Cowan has a very strong arm and throws well on the run. He is a good athlete despite a few knee surgeries.

 

If he is there physically, it wouldn’t surprise me if Cowan gets an invite to training camp. Once he gets there, anything is possible. I’m certainly not saying Cowan is going to become an NFL superstar, but don’t be surprised if he finds a way to make an NFL roster.

 

As a grade, I would’ve given Cowan a 5.4 (meaning a priority free agent, but not one of the first to get a call).

 

On Wednesday, I hope to have graded a couple of Wisconsin players the Saints signed to participate in mini-camp, and possibly beyond.

 

Until then, Geaux Saints!

 

Black and Gold X’s and O’s | Home Sweet Dome?

The New Orleans Saints and the State of Louisiana yesterday agreed to an agreement to keep the Saints in the Superdome until at least the year 2025.

This is great news for Saints fans for many reasons, not the least of which is knowing the Saints will remain in New Orleans and be their team. Of course, it should also help the local economy and bring stability to the organization.

But being the coach I am, I always want to know how this will help the Saints on the football field, or if it will at all.

To determine whether playing in a dome is an advantage, I took the home records of all dome teams (retractable roofs included) from 2006 to 2008.

Houston’s 2008 season was not included, since they played the entire season with an open roof. And although Dallas technically had an open roof at Texas Stadium, it played like a dome stadium. 

Over the three-year period, dome teams won 114 of the 208 home games they played. The percentage is 54.8 percent.

That seems pretty low to me. But you have to remember, this includes St. Louis and Detroit, who have been really atrocious over the course of the study.

Considering those two teams combined for a home record of 13 wins and 35 losses over that span, you see the numbers obviously improve.

What does this tell us?

Even if you’re horrible, a dome will not help you be any more successful than you should be.

But let’s adjust the percentages for the other seven teams over that span and see how that affects percentages. Now seven teams combined for 101 wins over three seasons (doesn’t count Houston’s 2008 home record).

And they only had 59 losses. That is a 63.1 winning percentage.

Even within that group of teams, there are still five three-win seasons. Two of those are by Atlanta and one by New Orleans.

The Saints’ home record over that time span is 13-11. Surprisingly, their best home season only led to an 8-8 record, while their .500 home record took place in the best season in franchise history.

What do all these numbers tell us?

If you compare the home records of dome teams to non-dome teams, you see the percentages are pretty similar.

The biggest point then is that teams build their rosters and style of play to where they play the majority of their home games. I say majority, because New Orleans did have to play a “home game” in London, England last season. They were able to win that game in spite of not having the “dome advantage.”

From the Saints’ perspective, let’s hope they continue, if not improve on their 2008 home record success, and can just manage to get to about .500 on the road. If they can do that, there’s a very good chance they will be able to make the playoffs.

 

2009 Dome Games

Week One vs. Detroit

*Week Four vs. New York Jets

Week Six vs. New York Giants

*Week Eight vs. Atlanta

*Week Nine vs. Carolina

Week 10 @ St. Louis

*Week 12 vs. New England

Week 14 @ Atlanta

*Week 15 vs. Dallas

Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay

The * is used for prime time games, since we all know the people of New Orleans are more riled up and loud as the day goes on. The fact that the Saints play five of their 10 dome games in prime time, and at home, has to be a huge advantage.

The fact that neither of the other two dome games the team plays is in prime time is also an advantage. Since the Saints really are built for the dome, it has to be an advantage that the team will only play outdoors six times during the regular season.

Next time, I hope to give you scouting reports on some of the Saints’ undrafted free agents. I know I said I would do that before, but this time I really mean it.

Until then, Geaux Saints!

Black and Gold X’s and O’s| Two Deamon Deacons Become Saints

In Sunday’s fourth round, the New Orleans Saints decided to make two deamons a part of their monastery. Both provided tremendous affliction to offenses throughout their college career, although they were the lesser known deamons to be given new titles this past weekend.

The names of these two former Deamons are Chip Vaughn and Stanley Arnoux. Vaughn is a safety and Arnoux projects as a Will (Weakside Linebacker).

For those of you who want to know what to look for from these players, here is a brief scouting report on the two, based solely on film from their senior year.

 

Chip Vaughn, S, Wake Forest, 6′ 2″, 221 lbs, Grade:  5.9 (Fourth Round)

Games Viewed:  Mississippi, @ Florida State, vs. Clemson

Critical Factors:

ATHLETIC ABILITY         6.0               COVERAGE        6.0

TACKLING                     6.0               COMPETES       6.5

PLAY SPEED                  6.5               INSTINCTS       6.0

 

Strengths

Vaughn is a good athlete for his big frame/size. He is very competitive and a hard worker. He has good strength for the safety position, which when he uses, can be very helpful to his game.

 

He is effective in zone coverage with his ability to fly around the football field. He is good at flipping his hips and getting deep, but also at breaking and closing on the throws in front of him.

 

Weaknesses

 

Chip is adequate at diagnosing plays, but he needs work on his recognition skills. He can play man to man, but he’s not going to be able to against a quick player.

 

While he is an effective tackler, he is not consistent, and not the knockout artist that some expect in a safety. He has decent ball skills, but lacks big play ability. He also needs to improve on his ability to shed blocks.

 

Summary

Vaughn is a good fourth round developmental type safety. He could play in the box, or in coverage, making him a great fit for a cover-two or an interchangeable safety backfield. He has good size and strength, but in pretty much all areas he needs to improve.

He should be able to be a good special teams player right away who in a year or two should be able to develop into a solid starting NFL safety.

 

Stanley Arnoux, LB, Wake Forest, 6′ 1″, 240 lbs, Grade:  5.9 (Fourth Round)

Games Viewed:  vs. Mississippi, @ Florida State, vs. Clemson

Critical Factors: 

ATH. ABILITY          6.0                     INITIAL QUICK       6.0

PLAY STR.              6.0                     COMPETES            6.0

PLAY SPEED            6.5                     INSTINCTS            6.5

 

Strengths

Stanley is a quick-twitch athlete for the linebacker position. He has good range and can play sideline-to-sideline effectively. He excels at dropping pass coverage and flipping his hips.

 

He also has the ability to come up quickly and make plays on ball carriers running at him. He plays with a high-motor and is fairly tough, which should allow him to excel on special teams early in his career.

 

Weaknesses

 

Stanley is not as strong as his body type makes him seem. This effects him in his ability to play the run at him and shed blockers. He is only average off the ball, from a quickness perspective. Because of this he will struggle to provide a consistent pass rush as a blitzer.

 

He doesn’t use his hands well and gets lost in coverage, in relation to where the ball is, on occasion. He tends to lunge/arm tackle and is not a thumper. 

 

Summary

 

Being that I did this evaluation after the draft, it appears Stanley ended up right where he should have, in the middle of the fourth round. He is a guy who tends to be around the football quite a bit. He makes plays, and managed to stand out on one of the most talented defenses in the entire country a season ago.

 

He does have some weaknesses, especially in relation to playing strength, and he just needs to improve fundamentally, in relation to technique. If he can do that, he has a chance to become a starting-caliber player in a couple of years, while being able to help on special teams right away for the Saints.

 

Hopefully, when you read this, you saw that I like these two players, and feel each will make the Saints a better football team not just this year, but are guys who down the road can make the Saints a good defense for years to come.

 

 

Two Other Quick Notes

 

The Saints released their starting defensive tackles of the 2006 season, Brian Young and Hollis Thomas. It is too bad, as both were good players, but both men’s stock fell because of injury issues.

 

Thankfully, Sedrick Ellis, Rod Coleman, and DeMario Pressley should make for a pretty good unit, along with some of the other players they have at that position as rotation guys. The Saints should be okay at that position.

 

Finally, on Friday, I will have scouting reports on at least a couple of rookie free agents signed by the Saints this week.

 

Until then, Geaux Saints!

Black and Gold X’s and O’s| 2009 NFL Draft Day One Recap

Well, we all knew Matthew Stafford was going to go number one, although yours truly didn’t understand why.

And Jason Smith seemed like the logical choice for the Rams with the second pick. But from pick three and on, the suspense and drama rivaled any reality TV series.

Tyson Jackson is a good fit for Kansas City at the defensive end position. But was he really worth the third pick in the draft? I’m sure Kansas City wanted to trade down, but was probably unable to do so. When they realized a trade was not possible, they just decided to take the guy who was the best fit.

Aaron Curry, while being chosen fourth and by a team that runs the 4-3 defense as Seattle does, pretty much locked up a good if not better career, assuming he stays healthy. He is fast, strong, and can cover pretty much all tight ends and running backs. I think he has a chance to become a Hall of Fame-type player.

Then a huge splash came when the New York Jets gave up about half their draft in order to acquire the services of Southern California’s Mark Sanchez, who has that “it factor”.

He has the arm strength and football IQ which will allow him to be successful at the NFL level.

Cincinnati once again disregarded character and went with Alabama OL Andre Smith. Smith is one of the most talented players in the entire draft, but has had some much-publicized offseason ignorance, which caused many to believe he could fall out of the top-10.

Oakland provided the first round’s biggest shocker by selecting Darrius Heyward-Bey over better prospects, Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree and Virginia offensive tackle Eugene Monroe.

As I spent the day watching the draft with a Raiders fan, Chargers fan, and Broncos fan there was a lot of interest in the entire draft, but especially this pick. Our predictions were either Monroe or Crabtree.

The Raiders fan is a Youth Minister at a non-denominational church, and never curses. But when Heyward-Bey was announced as the seventh pick, he couldn’t help but let out a big giant F-Bomb.

I tried to explain that the former Terp was a middle of the first round guy who has a lot of potential. Nonetheless, the jokes persisted about Crabtree. 

The Raiders fan is considering leaving his team.

He even made jokes about Crabtree blossoming right in front of the Raiders’ eyes just across the bay.

But Oakland made an even more shocking pick in the second round, when they took Michael Mitchell, a safety from Ohio.

That’s not a typo. It would make some sense if it were a guy from Ohio State. But I’ve never heard of the guy.

And while I have a low opinion of Mel Kiper Jr., the guy had Mitchell as his 73rd best safety in the draft. And that’s not a typo either.

Al Davis showed the world today he is officially cenile.

Jacksonville made a good pick with Eugene Monroe, while Green Bay and San Francisco made the obvious picks with B.J. Raji from Boston College, who fits the 3-4 very well, and Michael Crabtree, the best player on the board.

Buffalo chose Aaron Maybin from Penn State, who I thought was headed to a team that ran a 3-4 as an outside linebacker.

Then came my friends’ Broncos. The pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia.

While I love Moreno, I think Denver had more pressing needs, like working on their defensive line.

Moreno’s addition leads me to believe that Josh McDaniels may not be going exclusively to a zone-blocking system, as Moreno is more of a slashing-type of runner.

Washington raced to the podium with their pick of Brian Orakpo, a defensive end from Texas. I had him as a second round pick, but his pass rushing ability makes sense for Washington.

Next up, our Saints. At 2:41 PM PT, New Orleans selected Malcolm Jenkins, the defensive back from Malcolm Jenkins. I let out a huge roar at the announcement. In fact, I was the only one able to do that, since the Saints were the only team of the four who made a logical pick.

Jenkins provides tremendous depth at both the corner and safety positions for the Saints, and will likely become a starter at safety when Darren Sharper retires, or his contract runs out.

I will talk a little more about the decision in the coming weeks, but let’s just say I would rate the pick initially as an A-. In reality, though, they really couldn’t have done much better. Jenkins was the best player available in most people’s eyes, and fit a need for the Saints, which made it a win-win.

When the Chargers picked at 16, Chris “Beanie” Wells appeared to be an option, as did Rey Maualuga. Instead, the Chargers selected OLB Larry English from Northern Illinois. The pick shocked me, if for no other reason than the fact the team already possesses two very good pass rushers.

I was reminded of one of my own beliefs by the Raiders fan, “you can never have enough good pass rushers”. I had to question if he was thinking rationally though, since he was clearly still pissed off about the seventh pick.

By the way, I can tell already this will forever be a running joke amongst the group in the room on Saturday April 25, 2009. “You could’ve had Crabtree yet you took Darrius Heyward-Bey.” HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Tampa Bay stupidly moved up two spots for Josh Freeman, despite recently signing Byron Leftwich.

Denver was up again at 18, and made a somewhat logical pick in Robert Ayers, a defensive end from Tennessee. The questions about him are whether he’s a one-year wonder, and whether he really can play outside linebacker. Perhaps they expect him to put on some more weight and play the five-technique in their 3-4 defense.

After the Denver pick, my interest went from team’s picks to seeing who would go when.

Some of the surprises:

D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt- Hasn’t been drafted yet in either of the first two rounds, despite being my 10th best player in the entire draft.

Michael Mitchell, DB, Ohio- Seriously? Did Davis accidentally forget the name of some other safety? If the first pick was any indication, he actually picked who he meant.

I can’t wait to see who he pulls out of his hat tomorrow. Maybe they’ll take someone who played college basketball a season ago. Maybe they’ll take a chance on LeBron James. At this point, literally anything is possible.

Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa- I had him as a first rounder, and realistically believed he’d be a second rounder. He’s yet to be drafted.

Jarron Gilbert, DE/DT, San Jose State- I know less about him, but his talent is amazing. There must be a character issue, or people seriously question whether he can be consistent.

Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina- While I realize him making the first round was a little unlikely, I am surprised he didn’t get drafted in the second. I could see the Eagles making a play for him if he’s still available at 85. My guess, though, is they’ll have to trade up to get him, assuming they like him as much as I do.

There are others, but those were the main surprises.

The Saints need to find two good players in the fourth round tomorrow and one in the seventh, but so far so good.

Until tomorrow, GEAUX Saints!

Black and Gold X’s and O’s| How Teams at Top Of Draft Affect The Saints

The Detroit Lions are on the clock.

They have been for the past few months. And it appears they are pretty sure who they will draft with the No. 1 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.

It is rumored that they are negotiating with the agents of three prospects: Matthew Stafford, the Junior quarterback from Georgia (seen above), Jason Smith, the offensive tackle from Baylor, and Aaron Curry, the outside linebacker from Wake Forest.

Beyond what my own opinion is on each prospect, who the Lions are eventually able to come to a deal with before 4 PM ET on Saturday afternoon, will have a direct effect on what the Saints will be able to do with their first round selection (No. 14).

This may sound odd, since the Saints have no chance at any of the three of these prospects or other presumed top-10 players. But, truthfully if the Lions do not select Stafford at No. 1, Stafford could actually fall out of the top-five altogether.

Let’s assume the Lions select either Smith or Curry.

The Rams are going to take an offensive tackle, regardless of who goes at No. 1. The Chiefs do not need Stafford.

Seattle has been rumored as a potential destination for a quarterback, but I feel that Sanchez is a better fit for them than Stafford. Even so, I’m not sold they go quarterback.

Cleveland could go quarterback, but if Michael Crabtree is available, he seems like the obvious selection.

Cincinnati has Carson Palmer, who when healthy, is among the best in the game.

Oakland drafted Jamarcus Russell two years ago, so there is no way they’re going after a QB.

Jacksonville has bigger needs than a quarterback, although, supposedly, they want to take the best player available. While this is a possible destination for a quarterback, I just don’t see them taking one.

Green Bay doesn’t need a quarterback.

San Francisco might, but they seem pretty confident in the Shaun Hill-Alex Smith combo, as do I.

Buffalo could be a wild-card, if they’re not in love with Trent Edwards, but they seem more likely to take a flyer on a guy later in the draft.

Denver is a possibility for a quarterback, especially Sanchez.

Washington has been rumored in several discussions involving quarterbacks this offseason, despite having a good one in Jason Campbell.

And then we have our Saints. Obviously we are not going to go quarterback. But what if Sanchez or Stafford are still on the board?

Are the Jets going to hang tight at 17, hoping nobody else trades with New Orleans? Maybe. We don’t know how confident they really are in Kellen Clemens, Brett Ratliff, and Eric Ainge.

If Denver didn’t take a quarterback at 12, but one is still available, I think they would love to get ahead of the Jets. They would probably not be able to trade directly ahead of New York with San Diego, since they’re a division rival.

Therefore, they’d have to get to at least 15. The problem is Houston will probably be satisfied with the 15th pick. The Saints however are desperate to trade down and pick up at least one extra pick.

Here are some other key elements to consider for Saturday:

– This draft is really shaping up much like the 2007 draft. You have an SEC quarterback who is clearly overrated because he has a strong arm.

There are other possibilities at the top of the first round, but he will likely be the guy, because of his “unbelievable talent”. Ask the Raiders if they would take the other guy, Calvin Johnson. I’m pretty sure they would.

– The other part of that, is that the Saints have an obvious need in the secondary, which they tried to fill through free agency. They also have a need at running back (in ’07 it was receiver).

That day I was hoping they would select Chris Houston, the cornerback from Arkansas. Instead, they took Robert Meachem. From my way of thinking, I hope they go the other way this year, and go with the defensive player.

– Historically, great corners and safeties come from the top of the draft. Running Backs that excel at the NFL level can come from any round.

– In much the same way, pass-rushers can sneak up on teams, and come from just about any round.

If all this doesn’t make it obvious who the Saints should pick, I don’t know what else could.

Please, Mickey and Sean, make the logical choice. You need a guy who can defend the pass. You have the number one offense in the NFL. It’s so freaking obvious!

Until Friday, Geaux Saints! 

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