These Week 3 Free Agents May Still Be Available

Did you miss the first wave of free agent players to pick up and are now scrambling? I may not have the answer, but let’s take a look at some players that could possibly start for you as well as some depth players.

QB Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers defense is horrible: sixth worst defending the pass, 282 yards per game; tied for fourth worst defending the run, 168 yards per game; and finally, second worst in scoring, allowing 33.5 points per game. That means Leftwich has to keep up with opponents.

He is averaging about 46 pass attempts per game for 286 yards and two touchdowns per game. View him as a backup right now with spot starter potential. As long as the Bucs don’t give up on the season and decide to go with Josh Freeman.

 

RB Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks: Just keep an eye on Forsett if you’re in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Why, you ask? In Week 2 he had six receptions for 67 yards that included eight targets. That was much more productive than his rushing numbers of 5-35-0, despite the above-average 7.0 yards-per-carry average, thus the PPR reference.

Edgerrin James supposedly will eventually see an opportunity to supplant starter Julius Jones.

However, Forsett is the one with the numbers, and though we know this could quickly change, if you have the roster depth, stash him for a couple of weeks and see how this pans out. As stated, PPR leagues only.

 

WR Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins: What I find interesting about Bess: 10 targets and 10 receptions! He catches whatever comes his way, and even though for the season he is only 10-86-0, in larger leagues he may be worth a flier to see how he does over the next few weeks. He is not great value right now—just an efficient player.

However, in the end, if you can fill your roster with bye week or injury fill-ins (if you don’t have quality depth) like Bess, you are better off than the owner who has inconsistent players for depth. Only look at him in deep leagues.

 

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars: Sims-Walker is nothing fancy right now but has a season total of 6-106-1 that includes 10 total targets. However, I like him because starter Troy Williamson (torn labrum) is gone for the year and the team let wide receiver Nate Hughes go (team signed him to the practice squad).

In other words, they are short on receivers, and Sims-Walker is going to see several targets. He’s fragile, so there’s always concern regarding his health, but there are worse choices. He was an early sleeper by many analysts so don’t forget that.

 

For other players and detailed breakdowns, check out KFFL.com’s own waiver wire and other articles. Regardless of what you use, it’s up to you to make sure the player’s listed conform and are good fits with your league’s scoring rules.

Don’t forget, I’m a “Tweeter” and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Dallas Clark Better Than Tony Gonzalez for Your Fantasy Team!

I’m on my tight end kick right now because it’s such a key component in gaining an advantage in your league. That is, if you can find a consistent player that scores week in and week out, you’re at an advantage every week because odds are your opponent does not have that position as solidified.

With that, let’s take a look at Dallas Clark this blog, and in the next blog I’ll wrap it up with Tony Gonzalez.

 

Positives

• Clark can stretch the field and make the tough over-the-shoulder catch.
• He’s a big-play threat with soft hands and can line up anywhere. In essence, Clark is another tight end who plays like a receiver.
• His role should expand with wide receiver Marvin Harrison now officially gone.
• Last season he totaled 77 receptions and 848 yards, career highs. His touchdowns (six) were the second most he’s scored in his career.
• He was the fourth most targeted tight end with 107 targets (100 targets in 2007). He was No. 1 in the red zone with 21.
• Despite a perception of being injury prone he has been durable the last two playing 15 games each year.
• He caught at least five passes in eight games last year.
• In the last four regular season games of ‘08 he tallied 30 receptions, 335 yards and three touchdowns.

 

Negatives

• He received only four goal line targets.
• Despite two 15-game seasons in the past two seasons, he has yet to play a full 16-game season.
• Teams may now focus on him despite the belief that Harrison’s departure will help him. Harrison’s loss could have a backlash effect.

 

My projections for a 16-game season:

(There is a high / low, but I just want to present the raw numbers)

• Receptions: 72
• Reception Yards: 823
• Reception Touchdowns: 9

I view Clark higher than Atlanta Falcons Tony Gonzalez because everything is lining up for him this season. On the other hand, Gonzo is going to have to learn a new offense, is on a run-first team and is going to do a lot of blocking.

 

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Don’t forget, I’m a “tweeter” and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Fantasy Football Experts Draft: K-FAD II

I’m taking part in the KFAD II, a league that we’ll play out. It’s the second analysis draft KFFL has done this season. I love these drafts because after every pick, we require participants to write a short analysis on their picks. That means you, the viewer, get to read our thoughts on why we made the pick. I know you’re thinking, “What’s the big deal?” The big deal is that these writeups come shortly after each pick, which means you get a fresh and accurate look into each drafter’s mind.

I do have what I’ve termed a “chair” in this draft. I always had KFFL draft with a two-person team. The primary chair was responsible for the league with, the second chair being there to offer feedback on every pick. The chair also helps manage the team when it comes to waivers or if the primary chair can’t manage it for whatever reason. It’s a process that has worked well. My chair is the “Battling Canadian,” Bryce McRae. I’m not sure why I call him “Battling,” but at times he reminds me of a veteran prizefighter who’s seen his share of knockdowns. He just has that gritty look.

In this draft, I wanted to snag a couple of solid receivers early but to also remain on task and draft quality starters and quality running back depth. In the end, despite what many say, you still cannot find quality running backs on the waiver wire! Check out my blog on value-based drafting for my philosophy on running backs entering this season.

As always, feel free to post your comments and let me know if I’m on track. I’ll gather and post the rest of my picks early next week as the draft is just about wrapped up. Enjoy!

KFFL Fantasy Analysis Draft II

1:12) DeAngelo Williams, running back, Carolina Panthers

Reason: Taking the safest running back on the board was our goal and that was Williams. Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook (ankle) is “da bomb” when healthy, but this year that is a major worry of mine. Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis has a lot of wear and tear, and I’m concerned about his ability to hold up at this point in his career. New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush simply looks great on paper, but that’s about it as he can’t stay healthy. In a nutshell I took Williams because of his health. I do have concerns about Jonathan Stewart, but he is not a model of health with a toe issue last offseason and an Achilles’ heel issue this offseason. He remained healthy last year because of the time share with Williams. I’ll bank on Williams having another successful campaign as the Panthers remain a run-first team and have a massive chip on their shoulder after the embarrassing beatdown they took in the playoffs.

Others Considered: Westbrook and Portis. Bush was listed too high in the rankings so his name was looked at but never considered.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 262 rushing attempts, 1,336 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, 24 receptions, 188 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown for Williams.

2:01) Randy Moss, wide receiver, New England Patriots

Reason: We know running back-by-committee approaches are the new trend, and with wideouts flying off the boards in most drafts, I knew what I had to do. The Arizona Cardinals‘ Larry Fitzgerald and the Houston Texans‘ Andre Johnson were gone, which left me an easy choice. Moss scored 11 touchdowns last year with a backup quarterback who struggled early on in the season before finding his groove. The year before he had 23, and despite his age of 32 he has been healthy the last two seasons. This one was easy to make, and I like this pick more than the Round 1 pick of DeAngelo Williams.

Others Considered: Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson, but we liked the team around Moss better.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 89 receptions, 1,335 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns.

3:12) Ryan Grant, running back, Green Bay Packers

Reason: No matter how you slice it with how “great” wide receivers are in today’s fantasy hobby, you cannot find quality running backs on the waiver wire. Thus, you better have quality starters and depth. I wanted another solid fantasy starter, and Grant was the best on the board. He’s not flashy or spectacular, but what I like about him: Despite his holdout and a nagging hamstring, he still carried the ball 312 times, he thrives in the Packers zone-blocking scheme, and I view his 3.9 yards per carry and five total touchdowns as direct results of his holdout and hamstring injury. For those that say he can’t catch, I won’t argue, but I know this: He only caught eight passes in the first three months of the season, but in the final three games he had nine. He also finished the final four weeks with 20-plus utilizations and a combined 102.5 yards per game. I expect better than average improvement this season.

Others Considered: Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Derrick Ward and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We felt Ward would share time and is injury prone, while we thought Rodgers could fall to us in the fifth round.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 294 attempts, 1,264 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 24 receptions, 130 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns.

4:01) Vincent Jackson, wide receiver, San Diego Chargers

Reason: Receivers were flying off the board, and I wanted balance at both running back and wideout. I went with wide receiver whereas I normally stick to running backs or a top-tier quarterback. However, I felt I could still grab a great quarterback in the fifth round and running back committees allow me to hold off a round for my back. Last year Jackson had career highs with 59 receptions, 1,098 yards, seven touchdowns and an incredible 18.6 yards per catch, which led receivers with 50 or more receptions. Jackson can go vertical (he’s a former college basketball player) and caught 16 balls that went through the air at least 20 yards. He’s able to use his size and power to outmuscle smaller defenders, and he’s a huge red zone target at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds. He finished strong in December with 20 receptions, 395 yards and two touchdowns. Finally, he’s young enough (26) to improve and has increased his yards and receptions each of the last three seasons.

Others Considered: I kept looking at quarterback Aaron Rodgers and briefly considered Santonio Holmes, but felt he would last one more round. My chair, Bryce McRae, brought up Chad Ochocinco, but I liked Jackson better as the team around him has fewer questions.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 69 receptions, 1,125 yards, nine touchdowns and even some rush attempts, seven for 25 yards.

5:12) Tony Romo, quarterback, Dallas Cowboys

Reason: Watching quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb and Philip Rivers go before my pick was brutal. I fully expected one of them to fall to me. Romo will provide the most consistency and explosiveness of those left. He’s a good athlete with a strong arm who can throw on the move from any angle. He just needs to stop making mistakes. The release of wide receiver Terrell Owens is addition by subtraction as Romo will not force as many passes Owens’ way to keep him happy. In fact, tight end Jason Witten, Romo’s favorite target, doesn’t drop passes like Owens does and is more of a No. 2 receiver. Speaking of last year’s numbers, Romo had a quarterback rating of 114.7 in the fourth quarter showing he stays strong throughout the game, and he threw for more yards per game last year than he did in 2007. Some highlights: He had six games of 300 passing yards and six games with three touchdown passes. In total, he had eight multi-touchdown games in 13 starts and averaged 265.2 yards passing per game. No. 1 wideout Roy Williams has a full offseason of the playbook under his belt, and while with Detroit he had three seasons of seven-plus touchdowns with subpar quarterback play. Don’t sell him short based on last year’s play.

Others Considered: Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub; however, he can’t stay healthy, having averaged only 11 games per season as a starter.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 3,865 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 39 rush attempts, 109 rushing yards and one touchdown.

6:01) Jonathan Stewart, running back, Carolina Panthers

Reason: This one was easy. I needed to handcuff my first-round pick of DeAngelo Williams to the big man. If anything happens to Williams, Stewart becomes a stud in the making and, in his own right, is a legitimate No. 3 fantasy or flex position fill-in. Some of the positives I like about Stewart: He was durable last season despite having offseason toe surgery. Based on his sixth-round draft slot he is easily the running back with the most upside to outperform it, much like Williams last year. One positive is that he’s still learning the pro game. Remember, he came from a spread offense in college. There’s the potential for an even split depending on how the season goes, and he’s better suited than Williams to see goal line carries.

Others Considered: None

Standards Set: KFFL projects 227 attempts, 931 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, 11 receptions, 94 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.

7:12) Kellen Winslow, tight end, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Reason: This was an easy pick. I planned on going tight end, and if Winslow was there, he was going to be the pick I made. The Bucs traded two draft picks, including a second-rounder for him, so he will be a focal point in the offense. The team will split him wide and put him in the slot as well as his normal tight end role. He’s also to be a focal point in the red zone. Remember, he’s a tight end who’s built like a receiver! Wideout Antonio Bryant will demand attention and should allow Winslow the opportunity to post No. 1 reception numbers. I view last season as a fluke, and Winslow did not have to deal with any offseason injuries – another reason I like him entering the year.

Others Considered: No one else was heavily considered as Winslow was the targeted player here. The Seattle Seahawks‘ John Carlson and New York Jets Dustin Keller were briefly looked at and dismissed.

Standards Set: KFFL projects about 71 receptions, 802 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

8:01) Donald Driver, wide receiver, Green Bay Packers

Reason: Another easy one here. I was looking for dependability with my No. 3 receiver before looking toward upside with the rest of my receiver picks. I also have upside already with my first two receivers. Driver has lost a step and may see fewer targets but had a franchise-record sixth 1,000-yard season last year. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers looks for him in the clutch as four of Driver’s five touchdowns came on third down. He runs great routes, is fluid and while he’s neither fast nor big, is able to use his veteran skills to make the tough catch. He also rarely misses a game. He also had 397 receiving yards in the last five games of the season. Finally, I don’t mind a 34-year-old veteran who can post 13.7 yards per reception and catches 64 percent of the passes thrown his way.

Others Considered: Miami Dolphins wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr., Chicago Bears wide receiver Devin Hester and San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Josh Morgan were discussed but never really considered. Driver was the most dependable of what was left.

There you have it, my first half picks in what should be a great league. What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Don’t forget, I’m a “tweeter” and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me.

LaDainian Tomlinson Should be this Year’s No. 1 Fantasy Football Producer!

I’m creating my personal projections for the first time in about five years and my projections have never meshed with the rest of the industry. It’s one reason I have been successful: Combining proper projections, solid draft strategy, and waiver wire savvy have always been the keys to my and most other winners’ success.

That stated, whenever Ryan R. Bonini and I would draft a team, ridicule would follow when others analyzed our teams, especially at the wide receiver position. I expect that to continue with my belief that if LaDainian Tomlinson plays 100 percent injury free he will easily be this year’s top producing fantasy player.

Positives

• When healthy, LT runs with great vision and power. He’s able to use his instincts and make tacklers miss. He’s finally 100 percent healthy!
• Head coach Norv Turner has repeatedly stated he has no plans to lessen LT’s load. Turner plans on using him enough that Tomlinson will contend for the rushing title. Turner believes 320 carries is achievable.
• Despite the expected load, the team will be careful with how many touches he receives.
• The team has a solid enough offensive line to help him contend for the rushing title.
• He saw 71 red zone utilizations (4.4 per game).
• He is still a big factor near the goal line with 17 inside-the-five utilizations.
• He has accumulated at least 10 touchdowns and 1,500 total yards every year since entering the NFL.
• Despite sustaining various injuries, he has only missed one regular season game.
• The team still needs backup Darren Sproles on special teams. He will not cut into LT’s carries as much as many believe. He’s undersized, and the playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers last year showed he cannot carry the load and is merely a complementary back.
• It was embarrassing to LT that everyone knew he had to restructure his contract and the team considered releasing him. LT is a man who plays with heart and determination. He has a chip on his shoulder; he wants to prove everyone wrong. He also wants to break the all-time rushing record.

Negatives

• He had his lowest output since 2001 (rookie year) with 292 carries, 1,110 rushing yards, 3.8 yards per carry, and 1,536 yards from scrimmage.
• He had his lowest total touchdown output (12) since his rookie season (10).
• He did not rush for more than 106 yards in any game and eclipsed the 100-yard rushing barrier only twice.
• Quarterback Philip Rivers emerged as more than a game manager.
• He faces the NFC East and Pittsburgh and Baltimore this year.

My projections (There is a high/low range, but I just want to present the raw numbers.)

• Rush attempts: 316
• Yards per attempt: 4.36
• Rushing yards: 1,378
• Receptions: 53
• Yards per catch: 8.16
• Receiving yards: 432
• Rushing touchdowns: 15
• Receiving touchdowns: 2
• Fumbles: 1

I’m basing these numbers on Tomlinson playing injury free this season. They are in line with his normal production. Let’s not forget, he played hurt last year, with toe and groin injuries that affected him all year. This sapped his breakaway ability.

Would I draft him first overall? NO I WOULD NOT! Would I draft him after the first few picks? In a heartbeat! This season there are questions regarding every player in the first round. While Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson should be the consensus overall No. 1 pick, after that, you can make an argument for many players. That in a nutshell is why we play the game.

In my humble opinion, if LT remains healthy this year, it will not be shocking to see many fantasy champions with him on their roster.

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Don’t forget, I’m a Tweeter and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Michael Vick Deserves a Chance For Redemption!

I’ll be the first to say it: I don’t care for Michael Vick and what he did. However, before you send the hate or I agree with you e-mails, please finish reading the blog.

It may not be manly to say this, but I’m a passionate dog lover because they give unconditional love and humans don’t. You come home and who’s there to greet you at the door every single time without question? Not your friends, not even your spouse, it’s your dog! 

Non-dog lovers don’t understand this, but I don’t fault them. No one loves animals like animal lovers. It’s like your newborn baby. I don’t care about your newborn that looks like a pointed prune and, to be truthful, is more ugly than cute!

However, to you, he or she is the greatest baby since humanity began. I understand that. It’s your flesh and blood. You’re proud, as you should be, and I’m happy for you, but it’s your kid not mine.

Let me tell you a secret: Most people feel like I do, we just don’t say it and politely tell you how cute your kid is and glance at our watches knowing we’re stuck looking at pictures. We do this because we know how much you love your kid and how special he or she is to you.

My point isn’t to tell you your newborn is ugly, deep down you already know that. Yes, that last comment was just cute sarcasm, get over it! Regardless, I’m just being 100 percent honest—the only people who like looking at pictures of your kids outside your blood is you!

What does this have to do with Vick?

Easy, we animal lovers love our animals as much as you love your kids and we equate that love as strongly as you do. You’ll never convince us otherwise. We believe brutality towards animals like what Vick did is just as horrible as any brutality towards kids. You may disagree, but that’s how we feel.

Despite all that, I also believe MICHAEL VICK HAS SERVED HIS TIME AND HAS A RIGHT TO GO BACK TO WORK.

I also believe NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is well within his rights to protect the image of the league. Technically, Vick is under probation, so his freedom is conditional, which is why I believe Goodell is within his rights.

I’m happy Goodell is allowing Vick back in just as I was when St. Louis Rams defensive end Leonard Little was allowed to play years ago.

For those that don’t remember, Little killed a mother and had to pay restitution from his NFL wages. The NFL provided the biggest check and quickest way for Little to at least do something to try to make up his horrific decision to drive that day.

Back to Vick, he will have to pay back creditors and make right the error of his ways, just as Little was forced to pay restitution. He also has a chance to show us he is turning his life around and has changed.

I tweet a lot (@wdelpilar), and I love following the players because you get to see their playful and sometimes soulful side. I have this to say to them: Stop whining about Vick and his treatment. When I tweeted a reply to a comment San Diego Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman made about Vick, I stated only Vick will be able to prove to us he deserves his second chance.

Not Merriman because he feels he should be given a chance, not me, not you, nor anyone else. Vick, through his actions, will show us if this decision was the correct one!

I’ve been accused of being judgmental, and I won’t argue that because anyone who accuses me is judging me and is no better. My point is that I’m always looking and hoping to change my opinion of someone because in the end, if we can all be the best human beings we can be, then the world will be a better place.

I don’t say that to say that. We live in the greatest country in the world, and until you experience a different country as a member who has lived there (not vacationed) you don’t realize the opportunities this country allows us. There is only one condition and that is to work hard. I have lived that experience.

To Michael Vick, I hope your actions show us you are changing and that’s what I’ll look for—not what your agent, friends or lawyers say! Remember this, you are a public figure and a role model regardless of what anyone says, because when a young kid sees you and emulates you, the person you represent is what they’ll emulate.

Don’t ever forget that.

Before I leave you, the controversial Jim Brown—love him or hate him, he’s the egotistical personality—had some words for Vick, which I feel are dead on. You can check it out at: http://www.sirius.com/politicaltalk.

Don’t forget, I’m a “tweeter” and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Around the League with Carson Palmer, Cadillac Williams, and More

I have yet to draft in a fantasy league, but my time is coming as training camp nears. I don’t like drafting before August and prefer the week before the season starts.

I believe most of you should gear yourself toward that, and don’t forget, drafting with your buddies in person is the best way to draft. Make sure you have enough grub, music and trash talk to make it fun.

Just be careful with boozing it up. We’ve all had our bad days or nights with our good friends Jack or Jim, so make sure they don’t make you regret that team you put together.

 

Bengals | Palmer will be on a throw count in training camp

Joe Reedy, of The Cincinnati Enquirer, reports Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer says his elbow is 100 percent healthy. During OTAs and minicamp, the wide receivers said Palmer’s passes had the same old velocity and zip.

He is going to be on a pass count during training camp, and will not throw more than 150 passes per day. As the offseason drills went on, Palmer’s long passes appeared to be more consistent and crisper.

 

Bengals | Palmer provided feedback in offensive adjustments

Joe Reedy, of The Cincinnati Enquirer, reports Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer provided plenty of input to offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski on the team’s playbook.

While most of the changes to the offense have been centered around more emphasis on the running game, Palmer is still expected to air it out with plenty of three-receiver sets.

My Take: We have no clue about what to expect from Palmer. Based on his average draft position provided by Mock Draft Central, my favorite ADP site, he is going 90th overall, the 13th quarterback taken. That is the eighth round in a 12-team league.

I wouldn’t want him as my No. 1 fantasy quarterback until I’ve seen him in action, and it’s too early to take my No. 2 fantasy quarterback in the eighth round.

The fact he has had a hand in trying to improve the offense states a lot about the team’s faith in him as well as his own commitment to winning.

However, the team took a hit when they lost receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and that’s my real concern. Hold off on drafting Palmer that early until you see him play regardless of what you think today. Training camp will settle his true value.

 

Buccaneers | Williams will participate in camp

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris said during an interview that RB Cadillac Williams (knee) will participate in training camp and is in the mix to receive some carries this season.

My Take: I have always believed this is the greatest country in the world, because if you’re talented and work hard enough good things WILL happen. To see Cadillac work as hard as he has to overcome not one but two devastating knee injuries makes my heart feel good—especially in a league where we know there are players just collecting checks.

Cadillac is going with the 208th pick on average, is the 68th running back taken and falls into the 18th round in a 12-team league.

However, the team is looking at Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham as their one-two punch. Both backs have a history of getting nicked up and hurt. If Cadillac can come back he could see some touches. Consider the quarterback position: The team would love to have rookie Josh Freeman light it up and show he can be a successful starter, even as a rookie.

We can all dream can’t we? You add the immobile, underachieving Byron Leftwich and inexperienced, never-proven Luke McCown, and you know this team will run. I believe you can hold off on Cadillac because, barring injuries, if he does see consistent playing time, it won’t come until later in the season.

 

Vikings | Allen getting annoyed with Favre’s indecision

Sam Farmer, of The Los Angeles Times, reports Minnesota Vikings DE Jared Allen said he would be fine with free-agent QB Brett Favre (Jets) joining the team but is getting annoyed with Favre’s indecision. “If we get Brett, then that’s a bonus. But let’s either get it done and get moving on with it or let it go. It’s not so much that it’s a distraction because we’re professionals and don’t really buy into that. But it’s annoying,” Allen said.

My Take: Nothing fantasy here, just a point that this is what the Favre saga has the potential to turn into: a locker room with disgruntled players. Remember, this is a team sport, and some of these players are close to having heard enough about how they need Favre for that elusive Super Bowl run.

Allen may be right in that it’s annoying, but it’s also distracting to the quarterbacks and receivers on roster. For the record, if you’re drafting now, Favre is still solid value as the 24th quarterback taken and the 185th overall pick, the 16th round in a 12-team league. He’s slowly moving up and once signed will probably make a big jump.

 

Jaguars | Fast fact: Jones-Drew’s carries have increased

NFL.com reports Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew‘s carries have increased in each of his three seasons with the team. Jones-Drew had 166 carries in 2006, 167 carries in 2007 and 197 carries in 2008.

 

Jaguars | Jones-Drew feels offense will be explosive this season

Vic Carucci, of NFL.com, reports Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew feels the team’s offense will bounce back in 2009, thanks to health and additions on the offensive line. “We’re back to where we were in the beginning,” Jones-Drew said. “When I first got (to Jacksonville), we were a powerhouse running attack, and we could block and do whatever we wanted to.

And with these guys coming back healthy and getting ready to play, it gets really exciting because I know we’re going to be able to run the ball and throw it. It’s going to be an explosive offense again.”

 

Jaguars | Jones-Drew will have help carrying running load

Vic Carucci, of NFL.com, reports even though Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew will be the focal point of the team’s running game this season, he will likely share carries with the team’s other running backs. Jones-Drew’s relief includes RBs Rashad Jennings, Chauncey Washington, Alvin Pearman and FB Greg Jones.

“We have a boatload of guys that can play, so it’s not just me,” Jones-Drew said. “That’s one thing that everybody has to understand. There are a lot of guys that can go.”

My Take: Right now everything is pointing to Jones-Drew being, arguably, the top pick in point-per-reception leagues. Sure you hear about Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte and Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson; however, no one can argue Jones-Drew can’t make his own claim for the top spot.

I still have yet to decide whom I would take No. 1 as I’m still working on projections, but he’s a legit candidate. If the team can divide enough of the load to keep him fresh, he will be a force to reckon with.

I’m not concerned with his size as much as others are based on how he’s built; he’s short, stocky and powerful. While 208 pounds is not huge, it’s not small for a running back when you look at Emmitt Smith, who weighed 210 pounds at the same point in his career.

 

Don’t forget, I tend to post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner as well as point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that should help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar

Tweeters you should follow!

Those who read my blogs know I’ve come to enjoy Twitter. If you’re a fantasy football buff, here are some Tweeters I’ve come across, and these are just initial thoughts, as I myself am still new to being active on Twitter.

The three best out there right now who seem to be getting into and enjoying Twitter as well as breaking news:

1. Adam Schefter: @Adam_Schefter – I’ve knocked Schefter at times, and for those who believe I judge people too harshly, they’re right. We all do, as it’s human nature, and anyone who states otherwise is lying. However, I’m always willing and looking to change my opinion because people can surprise you, and Schefter has given good info since leaving the NFL Network. In the end, you can and should always keep an open mind! What I’m realizing: The thing with Twitter, you begin to get to know people a little better simply by following their conversations. Schefter is reporting and conversing via Twitter.
2. Pro Football Talk: @ProFootballTalk – Love him or hate him, Mike Florio has built a name for himself. He stays on top of the news, and though his analysis can be off at times, he reports the news in a breaking or timely manner, and that’s what fantasy players want!
3. Adam Caplan: @caplannfl – My friend Adam has worked as hard as anyone I know on his trade, and I’m proud to say I’ve seen him turn the corner from fantasy player and analyst to NFL analyst. He gets you the numbers of contracts, lets you know what’s happening and rarely misses anything. As I saw somewhere: Follow his Tweets and stay on top of the NFL!

The rest of the ones I’m enjoying and following:

• Chris Mortensen: @mortreport – Now we all know who Mort is and how valuable his data is. Nothing needs to be explained here. I’m a huge fan of his and have been for years, as have millions of others.
• ESPN NFL: @espnnfl – Not sure if they’re breaking news, but they have good links to articles about the news at hand.
• Football Outsiders: @fb_outsiders – I’ve always been impressed with this group and how they put their numbers together. I’m just not always in agreement with how they interpret those numbers. A stats geek does not make a fantasy football winner, but that’s on all of us. Obviously I’ve missed with my own analysis at times. I enjoy and envy their work as they come up with statistical breakdowns I relish. I plan on reading their latest almanac and so should you! Maybe I can get them to send me a copy … LOL. Seriously, buy it!
• Gregg Rosenthal: @greggrosenthal – I’ve always enjoyed his work as he’s a solid analyst and breaks things down from a very logical perspective. My type of writer.
• Peter King: @SI_PeterKing – King doesn’t have much of a clue on fantasy football and admitted as such in a column last year, but his column at SI is great and I’m looking forward to seeing what he Tweets about.
• Michael Lombardi: @michaelombardi – He has tons of first-hand experience with the NFL. I’m looking forward to seeing what he has to Tweet about, too. He Tweets on major events but nothing breaking.
• Warren Sapp: @QBKILLA – He’s a conversationalist on here and talks to various players via Twitter. For now just interesting conversations to follow. Nothing more, nothing less, but you can pick up a lot of NFL players by following his Tweets.
• Jamie Dukes: @jamiedukes – He’s like Sapp, a conversationalist, but he’ll give his take on a situation. I enjoy his Tweets. He’s another analyst I wasn’t too fond of until I started following him.
• Rich Eisen: @richeisen – For those who remember, a few years ago I did fantasy segments on his show, “NFL Total Access.” He can be a bit of a smart aleck (in a good way). He always treated Ryan R. Bonini and me very well. He’s like Sapp and Dukes, right, a conversationalist with his Tweets, but he’s Eisen, and he can be funny at times. His account was hacked into recently and the hacker let the world know he was “horny.” The dangers of social networking!
• Sports Business Journal: @SBJSBD – For those in the business of sports, you have to follow the trade publication. They’re solid reporters, and while it’s not fantasy related, it should be on your reading list if you’re in the sports industry. I read it weekly!

Make sure you follow the first three I mentioned along with my own Twitter account. I tend to post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner and point you to decent links outside the KFFL world that should help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Around the NFL with Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, and More

For some reason this season excites me, if for no other reason there are so many draft strategies that the running back position is mostly running back-by-committee. The news is gearing up, too, with Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Derrick Mason announcing his retirement this week, but I’m not sure we’ve heard the last of this.

The Brett Favre saga should wrap up shortly as well because if he doesn’t get into camp with the Minnesota Vikings then kiss that team’s Super Bowl future goodbye. Favre needs training camp; he has not had an offseason regimen program as he did two years ago (2007 season), and he has to develop some chemistry with his soon-to-be new teammates.

Who cares if the Vikings are tailoring the playbook around him? If he doesn’t develop chemistry he’s more apt to try to force throws and improvise more often than needed. Let’s be frank here: The knock on Favre is that he’ll lose the game come playoff time when he forces throws and improvises too much.

We’re not talking fantasy scenarios here, but getting into camp on time will only help his fantasy value as well.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg as the news continues to flow; QB Matt Cassel of the Kansas City Chiefs was signed to a six-year extension. It’s getting started people.

For draft newbies, check out Mock Draft Central. They’re my favorite average draft position (ADP) site.

Chiefs | Cassel contract details

Updating previous reports, John Clayton, of ESPN.com, reports the Kansas City Chiefs have signed QB Matt Cassel to a six-year contract extension worth $63 million, according to a source. The deal includes $28 million in guaranteed money. Cassel will receive $40.5 million in the first three years of the contract.

I always like it when a player is in a contract year, and that’s no longer the case with Cassel. Instead of playing for next year, there’s always a chance a player gets too comfortable after his big contract. Obviously this isn’t the case with every player, but it’s a positive when fantasy owners know a player is playing for a contract.

Cassel is the 14th quarterback being taken on average, and his ADP is 102.43, the ninth round in a 12-team league. That’s too early for me. I look at Cassel as my No. 2 fantasy QB at best and, to be honest, would grab someone else like a Matt Hasselbeck or Brett Favre because they are on better teams.

Let’s face it: No one expects the Chiefs to be good this year whereas the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings are always division contenders.

Before leaving this topic, I want to say we look at contract-year players from a greed perspective, but wouldn’t you look at your contract year as the year to step up if you haven’t? I would, and every player does whether they’re already playing at a Pro Bowl level or not.

It doesn’t mean some players are giving less in previous years though some do. It’s time to get off our soapboxes, people, in how we view them differently from us!

Bills | Is Owens ready for big season?

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills WR Terrell Owens averaged 86.5 receptions, 1,264 yards and 13.5 touchdowns in his first seasons with his previous two teams, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.

Those are nice numbers, but the Eagles and Cowboys are nearly always playoff contenders. I’m not expecting those numbers from Owens, especially when the Bills threw 14 touchdowns last year, 12 in 2007, and 19 in 2006.

You can’t compare Trent Edwards to someone like Donovan McNabb or Tony Romo. More importantly you can’t compare the players around those quarterbacks. Will T.O. improve that team? Yes, but will he see 13 touchdowns? NO!

T.O. is drafted on average with the 33rd overall pick and is the 14th wideout being taken. That’s the third round in a 12-team league and way too high for me.

He has to learn a new offense, develop chemistry and overcome the wintry weather to post numbers that warrant that high a pick. Maybe he does it, but if he does, I’ll let it be on someone else’s roster.

 

Vikings | Jackson to demand trade?

Mike Lombardi, of NFL Network, reports there is speculation that Minnesota Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson might request a trade if and when the team signs free-agent QB Brett Favre (Jets).

Why would the team trade Jackson away? He knows the offense, and Brett Favre is not a given to last a full season. He makes a great No. 2 quarterback: someone who knows the offense, can come in and, at least in theory, not lose a game.

Even more importantly, he can learn from Favre even if it’s just by watching him. I like Sage Rosenfels better than Jackson long-term but not right now because he has to learn the offense as well as develop chemistry with his new teammates.

For that matter, Favre has to also, which makes Jackson that much more valuable. There’s no fantasy value here, just my two-cents on a silly topic.

Ravens | Mason already having second thoughts on retirement?

During an interview on ESPNews, Baltimore Ravens WR Derrick Mason said he had been thinking of retiring since the end of last season. However, despite saying earlier today he is retiring, he left the door open on a potential return.

“Right now I’m 99 percent sure,” Mason said. He noted he has to talk with the Ravens, but he does not think there is anything they can say that will change his mind.

He said his family has 97 percent to do with it, but noted he has to weigh everything involved, too. If things do change and he decides to play, Mason said it will be because he changes his mind.

I have to agree with Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com. I saw his Twitter posting, @RapidDraft, which said this saga may not be over. Mason may indeed be done, but he’s still the Ravens’ best receiver despite being 35-year-old, 12-year veteran. This team is not far from being a Super Bowl contender either.

He also has been instrumental in helping QB Joe Flacco grow as a player on the field. He’s the type of receiver a quarterback can count on for the clutch reception. We’ve all heard the tales recently of the late Steve McNair and how good a quarterback he was.

However, McNair is not McNair without Mason. He helped make McNair a better quarterback, and while McNair is not a Hall of Fame quarterback, he did take his team to a Super Bowl and Mason helped in McNair’s growth as a quarterback.

For fantasy owners, losing Mason is the equivalent of losing an outstanding No. 3 fantasy receiver, a No. 2 in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Schauf comes up with a nice stat when he states Flacco with a healthy Mason completed 61.8 percent of his passes, and after Mason got hurt, completed 57.3 percent. His loss will hurt.

Look for WRs Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams to be the starters barring the team signing a veteran. Remember they still have to deal with linebacker Terrell Suggs so there may not be the money needed to bring in someone like Arizona Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin or the Denver Broncos‘ Brandon Marshall.

Remember the team would not only have to shell out huge bucks but also give up draft picks. For a team that is built around the running game and defense, it would behoove them to first get Suggs under a long-term contract before considering trading for a top-tier receiver.

Cowboys | Romo-Williams relationship a work in progress

Tim MacMahon, of The Dallas Morning News, reports Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo and WR Roy Williams put in a lot of extra offseason work together. There were some encouraging signs of chemistry between the two during OTAs and minicamp, but there was also ample evidence that their relationship is a work in progress.

This is good news because fantasy owners who believe in Romo need to know he has more than just tight end Jason Witten to rely on. However, I’m concerned about the five-year, $45 million contract extension Williams signed.

Will he be hungry? It’s a legitimate question because that is top-tier money and he has only eclipsed 1,000 yards once in his six year career.

That was in 2006: 82 receptions, 1,310 yards and seven touchdowns. Granted we’re talking the Detroit Lions, but in comparison, Calvin Johnson in his second year on the league’s worst had 1,331 yards receiving, 12 touchdowns and 78 receptions.

My point is simple: Johnson, at least for one year, showed that even on the league’s worst team a top-tier wideout can produce top-tier numbers.

Redskins | Campbell ready for breakout season?

Washington Redskins TE Chris Cooley said he believes QB Jason Campbell is ready to emerge as one of the NFL‘s top quarterbacks this season. “Jason Campbell is so close to being one of the best QB’s in the league; he will have a great year,” said Cooley, who filled in for SI.com’s Peter King during his Monday Morning Quarterback column.

First, this is a great article Cooley wrote. It will have you chuckling! Make sure you check it out.

However, don’t be a chump, Cooley, and knock Trent Green. He represents blue collar America and how anyone can make it through hard work, buddy! I say that in jest as I’ve discovered many take me too seriously, and I’m not even married to you! I digress…

I would like to think Campbell is ready to emerge; he’s entering his fifth season and second in the West Coast offense. You add the chip on his shoulder regarding the team looking to trade for Jay Cutler and there should not be any reason he doesn’t produce.

Granted, two years is still a short time frame to learn the West Coast offense and succeed in the NFL. He’ll still have some growing pains, but he should improve. He’s the 23rd QB being taken, 184th overall, which is the 16th round in a 12-team league.

You can bet I’m taking a shot at him there if I’m still looking for a No. 2 quarterback, or No. 3 depending on the size of the league. Why not? I would rather have him than Matt Cassel only because he’s on a better team offensively. I like Campbell’s upside.

NFL | Rosenhaus says James will play this season

Edgar Thompson, of the Palm Beach Post, reports Drew Rosenhaus, agent for unrestricted free-agent RB Edgerrin James (Cardinals), said James will play this season but may wait to sign until training camps start and an injury forces a team to look to add another running back.

Seriously, where would you draft him? Obviously he’ll have to sign somewhere first. I foresee him signing during training camp if someone goes down or if a team realizes what they have isn’t going to get it done.

As silly as it sounds, why not back to Indianapolis as part of a running back by committee? I’m not a big Edge fan as he left for the money then whined when the team was losing in Arizona. That’s right, whine, and anyone in the industry will tell you that. Sure no one likes to lose, but as professionals we have decisions to make.

I could have left KFFL years ago for a more lucrative job but stuck it out, and it paid off for me and almost paid off for James last year. Just remember the grass is not always greener on the other side people.

James’ fantasy value obviously will be determined once he signs. In deep leagues, why not take a chance and draft him anyway? I would; you can always use him as your first cut if he doesn’t sign.

 

Don’t forget, if you’re looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, as well as great comments from me, follow me on Twitter.

Around the League With Brett Favre, Michael Turner, and More

I’ve come to enjoy Twitter, and obviously those that know me know that I’m a big Facebook fan as well. Social networking, to me, is one of the easiest ways to stay on top of what’s happening with sports faster than the mainstream news can provide.

It shouldn’t be surprising if I reference these networks in my blogs from this point forward—at least until it wears off and the next greatest thing since sliced bread comes around.

 

Vikings | Trainer visits with Favre a second time

Chip Scoggins of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, citing the Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman, reports Minnesota Vikings head athletic trainer Eric Sugarman traveled to Mississippi Wednesday, July 8, to check on QB Brett Favre (shoulder) and his surgically repaired right arm. It was Sugarman’s second visit with Favre, as the two met about two weeks ago to go over some stretching exercises to help Favre in his recovery.

Two Vikings sources said Favre is now seven weeks removed from surgery and it was a complete success, which provides more evidence his signing with Minnesota may be imminent.

My Take: Let it end and just sign the man.

Seriously, with Favre healthy, as a fantasy prospect, he deserves a hard look. On average he’s the 25th quarterback being taken in most leagues, 185th overall, the 16th round in a 12-team league.

I don’t have to say it as we know that’s great value.

His numbers from the first 12 weeks of the last season show he can still get the job done: 68.7 percent completion rate, 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Expect him to move up, but if he’s there, I would select him as a No. 3 quarterback at that point.

I think his days as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback are over, but never say never. Don’t be foolish and take him as your No. 1! For you Favre fans, I saw a tweet from @chestees showing a cute Favre T-shirt; check it out at Chestees.

 

Browns | Quinn appears favorite entering camp

James Walker of ESPN.com reports Cleveland Browns QB Brady Quinn holds a slight lead over QB Derek Anderson (calf) in the competition for the team’s starting quarterback job.

Quinn had a decent, albeit not spectacular, minicamp, while Anderson struggled most of the way through before missing the final two practices with a calf injury. The coaching staff, however, will not make any premature decisions. They will wait until both quarterbacks perform in preseason games, so it is still very much an open competition.

My Take: I fully expect Quinn to win this battle. As I’ve said before, the team invested a first-round pick in him, the fans are screaming for him, and it’s a new regime with no ties to any player.

We should also begin to look at Anderson as a nice story and player who may have had a career year, playing beyond expectations, two years ago. There is a reason he was a sixth-round draft pick. His career role may be one of a quality backup.

Today, in this economy, that’s not a bad gig. Look, it got Quinn an endorsement as noted by @Duzz14:

• “Brady Quinn gets huge endorsement from Staples, due to exceptional skills he demonstrated on the field at holding a clip board.”

Hilarious!

I’m kidding with that, but seriously, only consider Quinn as your backup QB entering the season. On average he’s the 29th quarterback being drafted, going 207th overall, which is the 18th round in a 12-team league. You can take him as your No. 3 to be truthful.

 

Falcons | Turner preparing for lots of carries

J. Michael Moore of AtlantaFalcons.com reports Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner, who had 376 carries last season, said he is preparing for another heavy workload this season.

“Treat every week like it’s Week 1,” Turner said when asked about taking care of his body and getting ready for so many carries. “Don’t take anything for granted. Make sure your body is right and fresh every week. If you don’t do it at the beginning of the season then you’re going to feel the effects later on the year.”

My Take: I was tweeting with @GBGinny, and we were discussing the belief that some have about Turner being overworked last year and that he’s due for a down year because of his age and wear and tear over the years.

That could be true, but I’m not buying it.

I have firsthand experience in the military with cases in which it’s age versus miles on your wheels, and age is not a factor as much as tread left. Don’t believe me? History has shown this to be true in the NFL as well.

Prior to last year, Turner had averaged 57 carries his first four seasons in the league. At 27, his legs are as fresh as any other player’s, including those of Matt Forte, who is being selected ahead of him.

I’m sure you’ve figured out: I don’t buy that take. I agree with my good friends Dan and Kelly Grogan of Athlon Sports in one respect. @AthlonFantasyFB:

• “We’re in Rapid Draft’s mock. Took Forte at No. 3 (PPR league), but can’t believe Michael Turner lasted until late in the first round!”

I’m not a Forte fan and wouldn’t take him that high, but I agree with their take on Turner lasting so long.

 

Broncos | McDaniels has high hopes for Moreno

Bill Williamson of ESPN.com reports Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels envisions RB Knowshon Moreno as a three-down back.

My Take: The New England Patriots have a history of having a running back by committee, and I see the load being shared in Denver as well with McDaniels running the show. Let’s not forget, he was the Patriots’ offensive coordinator, unofficially in 2005, and officially from 2006 to 2008. The team never really had a true No. 1 for various reasons. However, it wasn’t because they didn’t want one.

No one was able to step up as an every-down back for a full season! Moreno could be the running back who sees the majority of the touches. There’s a difference in being an every-down back versus seeing most of the carries. Let’s be honest, the team did not draft him 12th overall to share most touches. Let’s see this play out, but this team will run – and run a lot.

Take a look at the Patriots’ team rushing totals during McDaniels’ run:

• 2005: 439 attempts for 1,512 yards (27 carries per game)
• 2006: 499 attempts for 1,969 yards (31 carries per game)
• 2007: 451 attempts for 1,849 yards (28 carries per game)
• 2008: 513 attempts for 2,278 yards (32 carries per game)

This team is going to run, that’s for sure! For @JBobrick44, who stated:

• “Just purchased a Knowshon Moreno Broncos Jersey….I hope I didn’t make a mistake.”

Looking at the numbers, there’s a good chance you didn’t. On average, Moreno is the 24th running back being taken, 51st overall, which is the fifth round in a 12-team league.

I think that may be too early for me, but it depends on who’s there and who has been taken.

 

Broncos | Royal the next Welker?

Bill Williamson of ESPN.com reports Denver Broncos WR Eddie Royal could have a similar effect in head coach Josh McDaniels‘ system this season as New England Patriots WR Wes Welker did while McDaniels served as offensive coordinator with the Patriots.

My Take: Right now we have to take a wait-and-see approach because it’s not Tom Brady slinging the rock. You also have No. 1 wideout Brandon Marshall demanding a trade or causing off-the-field problems.

Marshall needs to quiet down, play football, and stop being so arrogant and dumb off the field. Focus on the team and do your job, and not only will you benefit with a big contract, but Royal and Kyle Orton will also benefit from your play.

Theoretically this sounds good for Royal, don’t assume Wes Welker numbers. On average Royal is the 22nd wide receiver being taken and 58th player overall. That’s way too early for me considering all the questions surrounding the Broncos’ passing game.

From quarterback to wide receiver issues, I wouldn’t risk that high a pick for him.

 

Falcons | Will use Gonzalez as a blocking tight end

J. Michael Moore, of AtlantaFalcons.com, reports Atlanta Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez will catch his share of passes in the Falcons offense this season. However, with the offense built around RB Michael Turner, Gonzalez will be relied upon to be a productive blocking tight end.

“Tony will help our offense in a number of ways,” offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey said. “One thing he’s going to do is that he’s a productive blocker and that’s important in our offense … As successful as he’s been as a receiver, he’s a good blocker too and he really doesn’t get the credit that he should.”

My Take: Come on people, what is so different from what happened in Kansas City? We’ve heard that for years. Then again, there is a difference as he had 73 receptions in 2006 and 78 in 2005, both big years for running back Larry Johnson.

When the running game came crashing back down to earth the last two years, his numbers rose: 96 receptions in 2008 and 99 in 2007.

This one falls under “Things that make you go hmmm…” Either way, he’s on a new team with a strong rushing attack that wants to remain a run-first offense, so I think twice on Gonzo. Not knocking him, as he’s quality, but this makes a big difference. Gonzo is the third tight end being taken, with an overall ADP of 57, the fifth round in a 12-team league.

For me that’s too early, especially with Kellin Winslow out there.

Jason Witten and Antonio Gates are being taken ahead of him. That’s how it should be. The truth is that I’m a closet Winslow fan because, when healthy, he’s just a beast. If only Winslow could shut his trap, stay healthy and stop being a prima donna, he could eventually be the league’s best tight end!

I would let Gonzo slide and come back two rounds later and grab Winslow. It’s a risk, but this year, I’d probably do that. I’ll take a risk like that in the middle rounds versus the early rounds. It’s getting exciting.

We’re getting closer, and don’t forget, if you’re looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar

Matt Forte, Running Back of the Chicago Bears, Is Overvalued!

I must say, it was a wonderful Fourth of July and I hope everyone not only enjoyed it, but partied late into the evening and partied safely. The weather was gorgeous here in beautiful San Diego, but I live in the country, and the temperature was a little warmer than I would have liked. You can’t win them all.

We’re getting closer to the beginning of the season, and more and more drafts are happening. My staff, as always, is taking part in many of them, officially representing KFFL. As a private citizen, I’ve taken it upon myself to sign up for the NFFC and the WCOFF high-stakes leagues again this year.

I’m on a mission this year. The better half is never happy if I’m not in the top portion of any ranking of any contests I play in. Simply put, she views it as a waste of our money. I guess I can’t blame her! In response to that, I’ve finally begun to dig into the numbers and will have some projections soon enough.

Don’t forget to check out KFFL’s projections as they’re solid as well, and if you have questions about or issues with them, let them know. I always have enjoyed reading feedback on projections because it makes you think. In fact, I believe that is how projections can improve. You can never improve a service when someone is always complimenting the organization. You improve when someone gives you feedback and questions what you’re doing.

Enough of that! In reviewing e-mails I’ve seen since getting back, I came across one asking the following question: Who is the most overvalued player so far?

The original word was “overrated,” but I hate that word. I would rather use the word “overvalued.” In response to that question, I think Matt Forte is overvalued this year. He’s a nice back, but many of us who saw him play last season would not say he’s a top-tier, stud running back. I think players who are taking him at his average draft position (ADP) will regret it at season’s end when he’s compared with other running backs.

In looking at Mock Draft Central’s ADP, right now he’s going 2.41 overall in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues and 2.50 in NFL performance (non-PPR) leagues. The high and low in PPR leagues are No. 1 and No. 4, respectively. In non-PPR leagues, they’re No. 1 and No. 5.

I have no issues with Forte and actually am a big fan. I love it when players without superstar talent excel and show they not only can play with the big boys but excel as well. He is that type of player. He is fundamentally sound and maximizes his talent. Sadly, I thought last season may eventually be seen as one of his best.

This year, I have concerns based on where he’s going, not on what he can do. I see newly acquired quarterback Jay Cutler not doing as many checkdown passes as Kyle Orton did.

If you watched them play last year, you would know the team put Orton in that position because they were conservative with him and did not want to go downfield as much. That created much wear and tear with Forte, as well. This raises the question of whether he was overworked last year and if it will affect him this year. He’s young, so many will say no, but until we see him play this year, we won’t know for sure. I would err on the side of caution.

I look for the team to open it up more and for the receivers and tight ends to see a jump in their receptions. That will come at the expense of Forte. His defenders will say, with Cutler behind center, defenses will not stack the box. While that may be true, I don’t see that theory as being valid enough to take him No. 1 overall or even in the top three to five. I won’t dispute that he is a middle- to late-first-round pick, but he’s not the overall No. 1.

The KFFL team stated it best when they pointed out that he failed to rush for more than 70 yards in seven different games. Also, his 100-plus yard games came against some weak teams last season. Specifically, they were the Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams.

If I have a high first-round pick, I’m trading down because he’s not the only player going high whom I question this year. I haven’t seen so many first-round question marks in all my years of playing; I’m not kidding when I say that. This year’s first-round picks will have a lot of say in who wins their championships. That is, anyone from the top pick to the No. 12 pick could wind up the league’s best fantasy player!

Let me know your thoughts, and if you disagree, why? If you agree, who do you see as No. 2? I assume Adrian Peterson is this year’s top pick.

As always, if you’re looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

NFL Sport Channel Latest

• Just How Far Would You Go?
• Sorry Rex, But It Isn’t Happening
• Super Bowl Predictions: Five Stat-Free Reasons Why the Eagles Will Reach The Super Bowl
• Seahawks Attempt to Turn Corner With Heavy Pursuit of Pete Carroll
• Bill Cowher Unlikely to Coach in 2010