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2009 NFL Season: Week 17

Published: January 6, 2010

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This week, instead of going through all the games I watched, I am just going to make observations and mention the games along the way.

This really has been one of the strangest seasons. I think mostly because there were are so many mediocre teams vying for playoff spots at the end of the season, and the teams I thought were elite, like the Vikings and Saints, clearly faltered.

But before I go into that, let’s move to the most important topic to me.

The New England Patriots

Week 17 could not have been much more disastrous for the Patriots. Wes Welker went down with a torn ACL and MCL in the first quarter. If you had to name the Most Valuable Player on the team this year, you would not say Tom Brady, you would not say Randy Moss, and would you not say Vince Wilfork, or Jerrod Mayo. You would say Welker.

Any true football fan has to respect and admire what Welker brings to the team in the slot position, and what he brings off the field. He’s a small, fast, tough, hard working, receiver who is admired by fans and teammates alike. He takes a pounding week in and week out, catching those passes over the middle. My heart sank when I realized how badly Welker was hurt, but as my wife said, “That’s football.”

What are the Patriots chances in the playoffs without Welker? Not nearly as good as they were with him. In fact, New England’s offense diminished greatly, I would say, with the heartbreaking injury.

I like Julian Edelman. He’s impressed since the preseason and played well in Welker’s place in a few games this season. But as a rookie, at this point in his career, I don’t seem him truly replacing what Welker brings to the table. But thankfully, Bill Belichick was smart enough to steal a seventh-round Wes Welker clone.

Frankly, I thought the starters should have played only a quarter, then pulled off the field since it was a meaningless game. I’m not sure why Belichick was even playing the starters the entire game, besides trying to keep momentum and continuity.

Reports say that Brady played with a broken finger and broken ribs. I find it extremely hard to believe Belichick would be stupid enough to expose Brady if he really had broken ribs. That would be insane, and Belichick should be checked into a mental facility immediately if so. But those reports have been disputed.

I don’t fault him for playing the starters, though. That’s a coaches call as to what his team needs most to be successful in the playoffs. But those who say that Belichick “plays to win no matter what” are flat wrong, too. He has benched his starters very early before in previous seasons where the Patriots wrapped up a playoff spot, except for 2007 when they were going for 16-0.

But let’s face it, the Patriots problems run far deeper than Wes Welker. The defense has been so woefully inadequate on the road and in the passing game it’s sometimes just embarrassing. We can’t seem to hold a lead and the defense seems mostly bewildered at times.

And the offense is inconsistent. I completely disagree with commentators who say Brady struggled after Welker went out, implying that it was the absence of Welker that caused the offense to stumble at the end of the game and lose it. Edelman played a fine game. Brady just played poorly. Maybe it was the emotions of losing Welker? Maybe it was the broken finger? But he played poorly down the stretch.

And the defense gave up the ghost.

I think we’ll find a way to beat the Baltimore Ravens this weekend. I am not confident we can compete with the offenses of the Chargers or Colts.

But I am always hopeful. Will I be depressed for a month or more if we get knocked out the playoffs this year? Probably, even though I keep telling myself I won’t.

I’m still not over Super Bowl XLII, and never will be.

Sorry Games from Playoff-Bound Teams

The Cincinnati Bengals played most of their starters against the New York Jets, but didn’t show up for the game. That was an embarrassing excuse for a professional football game. The whole point of playing your starters is to keep momentum going. Well, the Bungles made it look like amateur night, while the Jets were fighting for their playoff lives. They just didn’t have to fight that hard.

And while I’m on that topic, the Jets did what they needed to do to get into the playoffs, and the Colts and the Bungles basically forfeited their games to them. So the Jets go into the playoffs basically having been given two games in the standings. That’s just how it is.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals laid down against the Green Bay Packers and looked like the doormats they were of yesteryear. The starters played awful in this game, too, although they started Matt Leinart, who stunk the joint up.

I think the Jets and the Packers beat these two teams next week in the playoffs. Why bother starting your best players if they aren’t going to show up?

Resting Your Starters and the NFL’s Comments on the Lousy End of Season Games

This leads me to my next point. Yes, the final week of the season saw some pretty sorry games that made the preseason look entertaining. But how can the NFL talk about “doing something” to make playoff-bound teams start their best players? That is so idiotic. It’s hard to believe the topic came up.

First, that would just open up all kinds of shenanigans where one team would claim, “Well, our starting quarterback has a bruised shin,” while another loses their starting quarterback in a meaningless game. What is the NFL going to do, medical inspections on all the “key players” of teams that have wrapped up playoff spots?

And even if the starters do start, the two games above pretty clearly show that if they have nothing to play for, they may not show up anyway.

Even though I find it ironic the Jets were gifted a playoff spot by the Colts and Bengals while other deserving teams weren’t, I have no problem with the Colts, or any other team, not playing their starters in meaningless end of season games. If they lost Peyton Manning, their chances of a Super Bowl would be almost zero. They earned the right to rest their starters by having the best regular season record. The mediocre teams that didn’t—who cares? It’s not their problem. Win your regular season games and you won’t have to worry about what other teams are doing.

The Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens only beat the Oakland Raiders because Charlie Frye. Yes, believe it or not, Charlie Frye was playing a good game but got injured.

In the second half, JaMarcus Russell came in and his two stupid turnovers handed the Ravens the game and a playoff spot. Had Frye stayed in the game and played as well as he had the first half, there is a very good chance that the Ravens would have lost the game.

Ironically, I think the Ravens are more talented than their record. Cam Cameron should be fired. His game plan is predictable. For the Patriots’ sake, though, I hope it is next week, too.

The MVP of this game would be Willis McGahee, who stiff armed a Raider defender to the ground on the way to a long touchdown run.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Like the Ravens the Steelers can just shut up, too. While the Dolphins-Steelers game was one of entertaining contests of the weekend, Miami were hanging in tough against the Steelers until quarterback Chad Henne was hurt and out of the game. Had he been able to play, the outcome might have been different. Pat White was awful, and unfortunately completely knocked them out of the game. The Dolphins may have fared better had Tyler Thigpen been the backup all along.

Other Sorry Games

And what about the Denver Broncos being run out of the stadium by the Kansas City Chiefs ? The Broncos did have something to play for, and flat-out embarrassed themselves.

And Josh McDaniels benching their best offensive threat Brandon Marshall? Unbelievable. I’m not sure who is at fault here, but I’m sure Marshall is gone after this season. Reports are that Shanahan was planning to get rid of this punk himself had he stayed on as head coach. If I see Marshall getting fawned over on NFL Network again, I am going to puke.

And while the New Orleans Saints sat Drew Brees, they put up a sorry performance on defense against the Carolina Panthers. Does Minnesota, who finally played well at the end of the season, have the edge in the postseason, despite being the No. 2 seed?

Final Observations

Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans became the sixth player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season with 2,006 on the ground and broke Marshall Faulk’s decade old record of most yards from the line of scrimmage with 2,254 yards. Congratulations.

Rex Ryan is a moron if he thinks the Jets should be Super Bowl favorites after being handed a playoff spot. Makes me root against them even more, but unfortunately, I will root for them if they play the Colts. Ryan’s shtick has already worn thin on me. He is a buffoon.

PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Offensive Player: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (256 yards rushing)
Defensive Player: Derrick Johnson, LB, Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Lineman: Alan Faneca, G, New York Jets
Special Teams: Shane Lechler, P, Oakland Raiders
Rookie of the Week: Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

Posted in AFC East, National Football League, New England Patriots, NFL, Sports Tagged: AFC East, Baltimore Ravens, National Football League, New England Patriots, NFL, Sports

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Patriots of the 2000s: Part One of a Retrospective

Published: January 6, 2010

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It’s hard to remember now, but before the Super Bowls, before the undefeated regular season, before the ascendancy of Bill Belichick and the dominance of an unknown named Tom Brady, the New England Patriots were the laughingstock of the league.

The Patriots began their life in the American Football League and were odd even for a new league. Their owner, Billy Sullivan, had essentially bluffed his way into “The Foolish Club”, and never really had the financial resources to compete with other teams—especially after the AFL-NFL merger. They were vagabonds, playing in a number of venues before settling into Foxboro Stadium.

(Calling Foxboro Stadium, aka Schaefer Stadium aka Sullivan Stadium, “cheaply made” would be generous. It was perhaps the most generic stadium ever built, in addition to being uncomfortable and small.)

Time moved on, and the Patriots began to settle into the role of the weaker sister of the Boston franchises. They didn’t have the tortured history and high-profile advocates of the Red Sox, nor the tradition of success that defined the Celtics and Bruins.

What’s more, they weren’t even a Boston team—they were practically situated in Rhode Island.

And so the Patriots existed, ignored except for a few die-hard fans, sparking interest only during short-lived bouts of success (1976, 1985 and the mid-to-late 1990s).

2000

In the beginning of the century, it appeared that little would change that fact. The Patriots were “recovering” from their latest flirtation with relevance—the years in which Bill Parcells had taken the team and performed the type of turnaround that would later become his signature.

The Pats had just ended the tenure of one Pete Carroll, who had overseen the erosion of the team from Super Bowl loser in 1996-97 to 8-8 also-ran in 1999.

(The fact that Carroll has become a de facto god with the University of Southern California, by the way, is reason #46 why I have no respect for college football.)

What’s more, the team was entirely reliant on rapidly-aging, onetime franchise hero Drew Bledsoe and the aging nucleus that had taken the team to the Super Bowl three years before.

(For my money, Bledsoe is the franchise’s most-underrated figure. He restored respectability to a team that desperately needed it, produced some wildly productive years early in his career and was the best thing about the team for many of his years here. He always gave the Pats a chance, even if it wasn’t much of one.

His reputation has become somewhat sullied by his rapid decline, his lack of success with other teams and the revelation that his relationship with Belichick was somewhat…strained.

For those who doubt Bledsoe’s value to the team, consider the following: Kraft was considering moving the team to Hartford, Connecticut in 1998. If Bledsoe hadn’t come along, how many people would’ve cared?)

The intervening years of drafts, run by Bobby Grier (who should occupy a Bill-Buckner-esque place in New England sports purgatory), had produced precious little in terms of talent.

The Patriots had just hired a coach who, like the franchise, was down on his luck. Bill Belichick had first caught the eye of owner Jonathan Kraft during the tenure of Parcells. Parcells, Belichick’s mentor, had rehired the coach after a disastrous stint in Cleveland.

(The Belichick-Parcells relationship is worthy of a Greek tragedy. As chronicled in David Halberstam’s “Education of a Coach,” Belichick at this point had been saddled with the kiss-of-death “good coordinator, but not head coaching material” label, and Parcells never let him forget it.

This was probably what led to Belichick’s bizarre one-day tour as head coach of the Jets. Belichick couldn’t stand the concept that Parcells would run the team from near-retirement and he would once again be stuck under the big man’s shadow. The subsequent brouhaha sent him to the Pats.)

Nonetheless, the 2000 New England Patriots team was one that was going nowhere fast. Aging players, a new system and little young talent consigned this team to a 5-11 record. Only back-to-back wins against the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts (who were starting to make noise as a league power) gave any sign of what was to come.

Indeed, the biggest development for the Patriots that year probably came from off the field—the team picked Tom Brady in the sixth round of the draft, off the recommendation of then-quarterbacks coach Dick Rehbein. What’s less widely known is the fact that the team made the odd choice of retaining four quarterbacks (Bledsoe, Michael Bishop and the immortal John Friesz) on their roster in 2000 so they wouldn’t have to cut Brady.

No one at the time could have possibly known the impact of that move.

(Catch part two on Friday, covering 2001 to 2003)

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Does Wayne Weaver of the Jacksonville Jaguars Hear LA Calling?

Published: January 6, 2010

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Yes, the relocation talks are cranking up once again for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Majestic Realty Group, Inc. is considering the Jaguars and six other NFL teams as possible future Los Angeles residents. The other six teams being considered are the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, San Diego Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams, and Oakland Raiders.

Wayne Weaver, the owner of the Jaguars, has steadfastly stated that he has no intentions to move the team. However, with the exception of one game, every home game in Jacksonville was blacked out this season, and those games were badly under-sold.

Moreover, Weaver turns 75 years old on Jan. 13, and he may be growing tired of battling the lackadaisical attitude of the Jacksonville community towards his team.

Regardless, it’s unlikely that the Jaguars, or any other team for that matter, will move to LA in the immediate future. First of all, the stadium being built outside of LA isn’t completed, and I’m not sure if construction has begun.

Also, we don’t know if there will be a football season in 2011. A collective bargaining agreement is still on the table and being negotiated, and if an agreement isn’t reached, no one will be playing football.

It is, however, a wake-up call for the fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is time to return to the stadium, or inevitably the team will eventually leave.

Weaver, if he’s still interested in making money, may want to take a hard look at his coaching staff, and possibly look at drafting a QB and some defense. And no, I’m not subscribing to the “draft Tim Tebow” philosophy of fixing all things wrong with the Jaguars.

Los Angeles, why don’t you go after your old team, the Rams, and leave the Jaguars alone? Our team is mediocre, but the Rams are worse.

Besides, St. Louis is a baseball town.

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NFL: Preseason Prognostications Were Pretty Accurate

Published: January 6, 2010

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Just like every sportswriter in the nation, I made some predictions back in September about who was going to the playoffs. Unlike the rest of those guys, I’ll own up to my calls. Here they are:

AFC Playoff Teams:
New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
Miami Dolphins
Tennessee Titans

Dark Horses:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals

NFC Playoff Teams:
New York Giants
New Orleans Saints
Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks
Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers

Dark Horses:
Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers

Amazingly, I got four out of six right in each conference. That’s not bad, but I was hoping for better. Here’s a brief rundown of the highlights.

I correctly noted you have to give the Patriots and Colts automatic bids until they prove otherwise. I don’t see any proof.

Of the Chargers, I wrote: “I’m not sure how good the Chargers are. I am sure they play in the same division as the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders. Put San Diego on the board.” As accurate as that turned out to be, I think I may have sold San Diego short. They are playing really good football right now.

On the Bengals: “If the reconstituted offensive line keeps (Carson) Palmer clean and can open some holes for Cedric Benson, the Bengals are going to be the surprise of the league in 2009.” Okay, I wasn’t surprised, but a lot of people were.

My thoughts on the Saints? “What do you get when you cross one of the most prolific passers in the NFL with a quality defense? A division championship.”

And there was this on Philadelphia: “There’s just something about the Eagles. They scratch and claw and find a way to win enough games to be in the thick of things in the final week.”

Of course, I made some boneheaded calls too. Like betting the Steelers wouldn’t suffer a Super Bowl hangover, or this gem on the Panthers: “there’s just so much to like, starting with Jake Delhomme. . . .”

Speaking of quarterback disappointments, how about this line from my analysis of the Bears: “Jay Cutler’s a guy who can make a difference in a tight game. Expect him to.” Oh, he made a difference alright. It just wasn’t a positive one.

Smartest Thing I Wrote:

“Okay, this is pretty simple. If you fire one of your coaches before the season starts, you have a huge managerial problem.”

Records of teams that fired a coordinator before the start of the season: Bills 6-10; Chiefs 4-12; Buccaneers 3-13.

Dumbest Thing I Wrote:

“Brad Childress has an awesome defense and the best running back in the league. All he needed was a franchise quarterback. So it’s too bad he signed Brett Favre. Favre passed the playoffs away last year and the Super Bowl the year before. Opposing cornerbacks should be licking their chops.”

Favre’s Touchdown to Interception Ratio in 2009: 33-7
Vikings’ Record:12-4

Super Bowl Prediction:

So now that the tournament is about to start, who do I think is going to win it all? I’ll take the Bengals over the Saints in the Who Dey vs. Who Dat Bowl. It probably won’t happen, but that’s what I’m rooting for. If it does come true, I’ll come back and gloat in February.

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Ranking the Playoff Quarterbacks

Published: January 6, 2010

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Since every kind of success is based on the quarterback of the team, we might as well take a look at each playoff team from this year and rank the quarterbacks.

There is more to ranking the quarterbacks than just looking at the passer ratings. The pass rating is the dumbest thing the league has ever seen.

There are certain intangibles that go into account when making these rankings. Some teams rely more heavily on the quarterback than others, simply because of the difference in each team’s running game, defense, or gameplan.

Not everyone is going to agree with these rankings, but I want to know why. Don’t just tell me I am dumb for putting someone ahead of someone else, give me some facts to back up your statements. Your comments are greatly appreciated though.

Begin Slideshow

Josh Cribbs Insulted at New Contract Offer by the Cleveland Browns

Published: January 6, 2010

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Cleveland Browns President Mike Holmgren gave the Browns a green light to give superstar returner Josh Cribbs a new contract, but sadly the Browns’ offer was not spectacular.

The Browns offered Cribbs a deal that would pay him $1.4 million per year which is an upgrade over the $600,000+ he currently makes per year.

Cribbs’ agent Peter Schaffer has said, “They need to treat him fairly or he’ll never play for the Browns again. He will demand a trade and he will walk out of there and they won’t see him for the off-season — they won’t see him ever again.”

Players that are returners for other teams, that do not provide as much of a spark as Cribbs does make the following: Andre Davis of the Texans makes $4.3 million and Roscoe Parrish of the Bills makes $3.2 million per year.

And the Browns offer Cribbs $1.4 million?

That’s quite a bit less and the offer should have been at least $4 million for all that Cribbs does for the Browns.

After a season where Cribbs made the Pro Bowl for the second time in his career, broke the all-time record for kicks returned for a touchdown in a career, was named AFC Special Teams Player of the Week twice, and named AFC Special Teams Player of the Month for December, the Browns have done the impossible and angered their best player.

Cribbs and his agent are “insulted” as written in an email sent to Dawn Aponte who is vice president of football administration and is in charge of negotiating contracts for the Browns.

The emails states, “1.4 million dollars per year for a player of Josh’s caliber and character is not only insulting it is unjustifiable under any objective criteria.”

Holmgren had a chance to make a big splash with Browns fans by getting their star player re-signed to a new deal and make him very happy, but it looks like they decided to slap him in the face with a horribly low offer.

Finally, in Scaffer’s email sent to Aponte, he writes that since no one in the organization is returned their calls or messages, that they want “the people of Cleveland to determine [what price is] fair.”

It is guaranteed that the people will cry out in pain because their beloved Cribbs who is the heart and soul of the team is once again angry.

Another sad moment for Browns fans during a time of hope with the Holmgren era just beginning.

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NFL Playoff Predictions: Don’t Let the Final Week Sway Good Judgment

Published: January 6, 2010

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Two blowout games in the final week of the regular season will have people licking their chops to bet on Cincinnati or Green Bay in the wild card round of the playoffs.

But beware, all who enter the valley of the sun.

Arizona, late afternoon, and the crowd is freaking out. Kurt Warner is zinging passes all over the place, and Beanie Wells looks like an all-star. If the Cardinals zip out to one of those 21-0 deals, the Pack is done.

I will take the team that was one play away from a ring rather than the Packers, to whom fate will not be so cruel as to see Brett Favre once more in the playoffs. Arizona by eight to 10 points.

The Cincinnati Bengals will rally once more for their coach and fallen teammate.

This matchup is seasoned veteran Carson Palmer against freshman Mark Sanchez. All the difference I need. The last game was silly.

This game will be nothing like the last one, and teams that back into the playoffs the way the Jets did seldom go deep into the postseason. Take the Bengals by four points.

Philadelphia played possum last week and showed Dallas nothing. Never bet against a streak until it is over. Take Dallas to lose at home and again fail to record its first playoff win since 1995.

Wade Phillips is history, and perhaps a Brian Billick type would be a wise next move for Jerry Jones. Sorry, Cowboys… maybe next season.

Baltimore made it to the second round last season and then lost. This team has improved, especially Joe Flacco. The running game can be really good at times, which New England may have trouble with.

Brady has three cracked ribs and a bad thumb, and perhaps without Wes Welker, he will be forced to throw to not so sure a target. In short, the Ravens win this game by a field goal or maybe two.

Arizona will lose in round two on the road.

I think it will all play out so the final four will be Indianapolis playing San Diego, while Minnesota will take on New Orleans for the respective division titles.

Your Super Bowl prediction is Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings take on Philip Rivers and the Chargers.

You guessed it, Brett Favre wins the Super Bowl at age 40 and cements his legacy as one of the top five greatest quarterbacks of all time.

I love being right.

Thomas [NFL Mike] Moreland

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The State of Competitve Balance in the NFL

Published: January 6, 2010

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Pete Rozelle once envisioned a league that would have every team finish 8-8.

We know that kind of level playing ground is a pipe dream. But how is competitive balance done in the NFL? How close have we come to that parity?

There are numerical ways that we can go about measuring this. Rozelle was concerned with wins and losses, so why don’t we concern ourselves with the same?

The first thing we have to ask ourselves is: What is parity, and how do we achieve it?

Rozelle said that ultimate parity comes when everyone finishes 8-8—meaning no separation between teams in the standings.

Statistics give us a perfect, easy-to-find measurement to gauge the separation in teams’ standings. We simply use the standard deviation (STDEV) between the teams’ win totals.

Standard deviation measures the average distance between a set of numbers. For 2009, the standard deviation between NFL teams was 3.22 wins.

When it comes to this figure, lower is better. The lower the difference between the teams, the more competitive the league.

Another measurement we can use is the separation between the best and worst teams.

This is easy. Take the team with the most wins, and the team with the fewest, and see how many wins separate them.

This year, the Colts led the pack with 14 wins, and the Rams brought up the rear with only one. This makes a range of 13 wins. Again, the lower the better. The smaller gap between the best and worst teams, the more competitive the league.

Finally, we can use the median of the data set to measure how well the middle-of-the-road teams did. The median is the number in the center of the data set. If the median is eight, for example, there will be the same number of teams with more than eight wins as there are with fewer than eight. A higher median means the middle of the league did better.

Now, how can we take these three numbers and produce something that will tell us how competitive the league was?

I am not a mathematician, but I made a simple formula to produce an index of the league’s competitive balance—a number I called the “Quality Index.” My formula was MEDIAN/(STDEV+DIFFERENCE). The higher the result, the more competitive the season was.

For example, Pete Rozelle’s perfect season would produce an infinite Quality Index, since every team going 8-8 would produce a difference and standard deviation of zero, meaning we would be dividing by zero.

If every team went 9-7 or 7-9, we would have a Quality Index of 2.649. On the flip side, if every team went either 15-1 or 1-15, the Quality Index would be .379.

When the 2009 totals were plugged in, it returned a value of .493.

Now, on its own, this number means nothing. So, in order to give it meaning, we have to compare it to past seasons. I excluded the 1987 and 1982 strike-shortened seasons, since the teams did not play 16 games those years.

I ran every season since the expansion to a 16-game schedule through the formula and compared them next to each other.

The results were not pretty for 2009.

Overall, the season finished on the wrong side of average in every category. The average deviation of wins since 1978 is 3.04, compared to 2009’s 3.22 (remember: lower is better). The average Quality Index over this time is .557 (this time, higher is better), and 2009 clocked in at .493.

Overall, 2009 ranked as the sixth least competitive season since 1978.

Here is a brief look at the most competitive seasons using my method:

1988- QI .726
1979- QI .704
1993- QI .691
2002- QI .674
1995- QI .643

And here are the five worst:

1984- QI .488
1991- QI .485
1990- QI .462
2007- QI .437
2001- QI .431

There are a couple things to note from this study.

The first is that competitive balance has shown no trend from season to season. The 2001 season was the least competitive of the 16-game era, and the very next year was the fourth best. Looking at these numbers in a line graph will show that the numbers bounce around like the sea in a hurricane over the 30 seasons.

Second, this is only one method of doing things. We are not taking into account playoff races. For instance, 2009 featured a crazy AFC playoff race that had five teams fighting for two playoff spots in the last week of the season. I am simply trying to create a numerical value for how competitive the teams were.

Third, this formula can be transferred over to any sport. As long as all the seasons you compare had the same number of games, you can compare the level of parity from any league.

We learned that competitive balance is nowhere near what Pete Rozelle envisioned, but I doubt that is even possible.

We also showed that there is no season-to-season trend for competitive balance. Just because one season was not as strong doesn’t mean the next will also have a poor showing.

This is only one step to measuring the NFL’s level of parity. Many more methods can and should be tried in the future. Let me know what you think of the study and how it can be improved.

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From Zero to Hero: How Alex Smith Has Turned the 49ers Around

Published: January 6, 2010

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Three years ago, people would have read that headline and said “No way”. Now, things are different.

Alex Smith, the former Utah Utes quarterback, has taken a while to get his legs in the NFL. Throughout the numerous struggling seasons that resulted in average and below .500 records, Smith has come through the other side a better man.

They say every cloud has a silver lining. Well, this is one of those stories.

Stats wise, Smith wasn’t living up to expectations. Taken as the first overall pick in the 2005 draft and signed to a $49.5 million contract, Smith’s football skills vanished almost as quickly as he received his first paycheck.

In his rookie season with the 49ers, Smith threw for 165 passes, but only completed 84 of them. One touchdown on the season capped off a year that 49er fans would like to erase from the history books.

Just like many rookies in the NFL, Smith struggled in his first year. That is obviously understandable. Look at Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez—their numbers aren’t exactly great, but it’s all about getting practice and confidence building, right?

That statement wouldn’t prove more true than in the 2006 season, when Smith’s stats sky-rocketed and won him the starting position for the 2007 season.

257 completions on the year, along with 16 touchdowns and 2890 yards, were the more realistic numbers that a first round pick should be producing.

The next few years varied. In 2007, he fell back into his 2006 slump and only played seven games. 2008 marked the year of injury, and 2009 was an average year, but a better one than expected.

The 49ers finished this season 8-8. It was a better year than the 49ers expected to have, but it wasn’t what they had dreamed of heading into the regular season.

Many people had San Francisco down as their sleeper team of 2009. I know I did. With players like Frank Gore and Patrick Willis, you’d be stupid to bet against them.

Overall, Mike Singletary seemed please with San Francisco’s season. At least they finished with a winning record, and at least they avoided injury.

As for the future, well, it lies in the hands of the players right now. Smith is no doubt the starter for the team, and if the coaching staff think they can mix and match him with Shaun Hill, then they are only doing themselves more trouble than favors.

Frank Gore is still going strong, and is the true team leader of a team that he has seen the highs and lows of.

Patrick Willis is capping off a more than impressive year. Leading the NFL in 2009 with 147 tackles, four sacks, and three forced fumbles, Patrick Willis may be the sole reason why the 49ers defense held up in some close games this season.

The future is looking more than bright for the 49ers at this stage. They may not be Super Bowl caliber yet, but with the weak division that they are in, and the Arizona Cardinals not being as dominant as they once were, they may just take the NFC West next year.

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NFL News

2009 NFL Season: Week 17

Patriots of the 2000s: Part One of a Retrospective

Does Wayne Weaver of the Jacksonville Jaguars Hear LA Calling?

NFL: Preseason Prognostications Were Pretty Accurate

Ranking the Playoff Quarterbacks

Josh Cribbs Insulted at New Contract Offer by the Cleveland Browns

NFL Playoff Predictions: Don’t Let the Final Week Sway Good Judgment

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