Seattle Seahawks vs. Mike Holmgren in GM Wars

The Seahawks have a lot to do this offseason, but they can’t do any of it until they have a new general manager in place. Well, the process of finding one is about to begin in earnest now that the season is over. 

And how interesting that they’re in direct competition with Mike Holmgren, the man who turned down Seattle’s low-ball GM offer in order to be The Big Show in Cleveland.

The Seahawks and Holmgren are both interested in Philadelphia general manager Tom Heckert (pictured), and the Seahawks reportedly have also asked for permission to interview Eric DeCosta, Baltimore’s director of player personnel. Heckert and DeCosta were the top two potential candidates on the preliminary list we came up with in November (before just about anyone else was talking about candidates).

The Hawks also reportedly want to talk to John Schneider about leaving Green Bay and coming back to Seattle where he served as Holmgren’s director of player personnel in 2000. Of course, Holmgren might have some interest in Schneider himself because of that connection.

Heckert, DeCosta, and Schneider are three of 10 men who listed as Seattle’s top candidates a couple of weeks ago by ProFootballTalk.com.

The Seahawks can interview any of the men now, with permission from the candidate’s team; but once the Hawks decide on a guy, they have to wait until his team’s season is over to hire him unless his team lets him go early. For now, that means the Hawks would have to wait for all but two of the 10 possible candidates.

Here’s a scouting report on the 10, with the top four reportedly the clear favorites:

Tom Heckert
Philadelphia general manager
Scouting report: Heckert has been the Eagles’ general manager since 2006, but he plays second fiddle to Grand Poobah Andy Reid, so he probably could be lured to another franchise. The Eagles are one of the top teams in the league at drafting, developing, and retaining good, young players, and they have been the most successful NFC franchise this decade.

Holmgren obviously is aware of this, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Heckert off the market before Seattle even gets a chance to talk to him. However, if Heckert thought he would be just second fiddle again in Cleveland, he might be more inclined to come to Seattle, where he would have complete control over football operations.

Eric DeCosta
Baltimore director of player personnel
Scouting report: DeCosta, 38, has been with Ozzie Newsome for 14 years. He was Baltimore’s director of college scouting for six years before being named director of player personnel last January.

Newsome is one of the very best general managers in the NFL. He built one of the greatest defenses in NFL history and has kept it strong for most of this decade despite losing players to free agency every couple of years. DeCosta has been with him every step of the way, learning from a guy who might deserve merit in the Hall of Fame someday as a personnel evaluator if he weren’t already there as a player.

DeCosta would seem to be the clear pre-interview No. 2 choice to Heckert.

John Schneider
Green Bay director of football operations
Scouting report: Schneider has a brief history in Seattle having worked as director of player personnel in 2000 under Holmgren. That might have taken him out of the running in Seattle if Holmgren hadn’t focused on Heckert right away.

If Heckert joins Holmgren, Schneider could give DeCosta a good run for Seattle’s GM job. Schneider,38, has been around the league for 17 years, and he’s been the No. 2 guy for a while now.

The one drawback is his affiliation with Packers GM Ted Thompson, the one-time Seattle exec who hasn’t had the smoothest run in Green Bay. Schneider has been around, but he doesn’t seem to come from the same personnel pedigree as DeCosta.

Steve Keim
Arizona director of player personnel
Scouting report: Keim came to prominence with the Cardinals’ Super Bowl run last season, and a few media folks in Seattle have already pushed hard for him. He has been with the Cardinals since 1999, steadily climbing from scout to college scouting director to his current position.

He has been a key figure in building the Cardinals into the Super Bowl contender they are today, drafting Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Darnell Dockett, Adrian Wilson, Karlos Dansby, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Steve Breaston. He doesn’t have much of a track record in pro player evaluation because the Cardinals are never much of a factor in free agency, so it’s hard to say what Keim might do with Paul Allen’s deep pockets. Would he spend too freely as Ruskell did? Or would he be more judicious?

Given Arizona’s ongoing success over the past two years, Keim is now a hot commodity. Hiring him would be a double bonus for the Hawks, who would be stealing a key figure from their top division rival.

Jimmy Raye III
San Diego director of player personnel
Scouting report: Raye, the son of offensive assistant Jimmy Raye, has climbed the ladder since joining the Chargers in 1996, from scout to director of college scouting (2000) to his current position (2008). Raye and general manager A.J. Smith have put together one of the best rosters in the NFL, making them a perennial Super Bowl contender.

Raye has been part of a decade of unparalleled drafting success. Because the Chargers have drafted so well, they haven’t had to sign many free agents, so—as with Keim—it’s hard to evaluate that part of Raye’s job. Raye was looked at by the Kansas City Chiefs last offseason, so he is already starting to get some nibbles as a GM candidate.

He figures to get an interview with Seattle, if only to satisfy the Rooney Rule. But he should definitely be more than just a token candidate. His résumé is as strong as those of DeCosta and Keim and might be better than Schneider’s.

Floyd Reese
New England senior football adviser
Scouting report: Not sure why Reese was on the Seahawks’ radar, per PFT, but it wouldn’t be surprising to learn that Reese lobbied for inclusion on their list. Ever since being forced out of Tennessee, he has been angling to get back into the league, and the Patriots did him a favor as he and Bill Belichick have known each other since they both coached in Detroit in the 1970s.

Reese, 61, has been in the league for 32 years including 13 as the GM of the Oilers/Titans, whom he helped build into a contender. He was forced out in the same exact manner that Ruskell was, resigning just before his contract was up because he knew the team wouldn’t re-sign him. Reese had some good success in Houston/Tennessee, but there always seemed to be underlying conflict within that franchise. It might not have been Reese’s fault, but the Hawks have better options.

Jason Licht
New England pro personnel director
Scouting report: Licht is a Heckert protégé. He got his start in scouting with Heckert in Miami in 1995, spent 1998 with Carolina, worked with the Patriots from 1999 to 2002 and then rejoined Heckert in Philadelphia in 2003. Licht was fired by the Eagles in 2008, joined Arizona for a year and then returned to the Patriots last offseason.

That’s a lot of bouncing around, probably too much to get much of a gauge on whether Licht is capable of running his own show. At 38, Licht is probably a little light on upper-tier experience to be seriously considered. However, if Heckert were to come to Seattle, he might try to make Licht his right-hand man.

Ruston Webster
Seattle interim GM
Scouting report: Webster has been with Seattle for three years having arrived from Tampa Bay to serve as Ruskell’s vice president of player personnel. He now finds himself serving as the team’s interim GM, although that won’t last for long.

Honestly, if the Seahawks retain him, it will say two things: (1) They are staying with the status quo, and (2) Ruskell was made the scapegoat. Nothing against Webster, who might be a good choice under other circumstances, but the Seahawks can’t promote him without looking like complete fools.

Randy Mueller
San Diego consultant
Scouting report: Like Reese, Mueller is trying to work his way back up the chain. He was Seattle’s general manager when Paul Allen bought the team, and he made a number of good moves—such as getting a first-round pick for Rick Mirer, signing Chad Brown, and drafting Walter Jones and Shawn Springs.

In 2000, Mueller left Seattle for New Orleans, and he was promptly named NFL executive of the year by The Sporting News . But his star faded quickly and he was out of the NFL by 2002, serving as an analyst for ESPN for three years. He got back into the league with Miami in 2005 but has yet to regain the power he once had with Seattle and New Orleans.

In Miami, he played second fiddle to Nick Saban and then was fired by Bill Parcells in 2007. He joined San Diego in 2008, probably hoping his affiliation with a good front office would return some of the shine to his badge. But if the Seahawks hired him it would almost seem like a return to the lost decade of the 1990s.

Trent Baalke
San Francisco director of player personnel
Scouting report: Baalke works under Scot McCloughan, who once was Holmgren’s trusted college scouting director. Baalke spent four years (2001-04) as a scout for the Washington Redskins before joining the 49ers. He was put in charge of player personnel in 2008. He is definitely more than a little unseasoned to be leading an NFL franchise.

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Concussions: The NFL’s Biggest Headache

If Brian Westbrook’s vision isn’t too fuzzy, and the fog engulfing his consciousness not too dense, the concussed Eagles running back might want to thank Joseph Mason Reeves.

Reeves too was a football player, a genus of athlete noteworthy for its tendency to be both headstrong and head-weak. His teammates called him “Bull”, though frequently he was too dazed to hear them.

An undersized tackle on Navy’s 1893 team, Reeves’ unpleasant duty was to plow headfirst into the flying wedges opposing offenses ran with a deadly—literally, on occasion—efficiency.

In retrospect, “headfirst” was probably an unwise strategy, considering that football heads like Reeves’ were not yet helmeted. In what was the sport’s infancy, players actually believed they could protect their heads simply by growing their hair long.

Few got haircuts in-season. Many got concussions.

Reeves, who like Ronald Reagan was born in Tampico, IL, must have had thin hair. He was knocked out so frequently that late in that 1893 season a Naval Academy physician warned him the next could result in death or “instant insanity.”

While deaths weren’t uncommon in a football era so brutally violent the sport would nearly kill itself, insanity was something else. The prospect of a nutty Naval officer at the helm of an American battleship, the first of which was then under construction at US navy yards, was not something the academy superintendent could condone.

So even though the fourth annual meeting with Army was next on Navy’s schedule, Capt. Robert L. Phythian summoned the 21-year-old to his office. “Reeves, my good man,” he told the senior, “I cannot in good conscience allow you to play in the upcoming game with Army.”

But Bull Reeves, who though he failed to recognize the peril of persistent head injuries did foresee the value of aircraft carriers, possessed the resourcefulness of a future officer. The future admiral sought out an Annapolis cobbler and asked him to create a head-protector out of moleskin.

The result looked like something Attila the Hun might have worn to a pillaging party – as conical as it was comical. Even so, the odd-looking device satisfied Phythian. Reeves starred in a 6-4 Navy victory and the football helmet, though it wouldn’t become mandatory for nearly a half-century, was born.

In the decades since Reeves preserved his playing status and presumably his sanity, helmets have undergone constant and considerable changes. Physicians, trainers, engineers, pilots, and coaches all have tried to perfect them. Straps were added, then padding. In the late 1940s, the switch began from leather to molded plastic. Facemasks were soon incorporated and later air-cushioning devices.

Today’s state-of-the-art helmets are as shiny, sleek and handsome as sports cars. They cost hundreds of dollars apiece. They are effective marketing devices, with tens of thousands sold annually not just to teams, but to collectors and obsessive fans as well.

And yet, as is illustrated by the problems Philadelphia’s Westbrook, Washington’s Clinton Portis and at least a dozen other players have endured this season, head injuries continue to be a major headache for the NFL.

By the league’s own estimate, there are 120 to 130 concussions a season—a number a recent Associated Press survey suggests may be vastly underreported. “Guys today are a lot bigger, a lot faster than they used to be,” said Sam Huff, the Redskins broadcaster and former linebacker. “The game is violent and it’s always going to be.”

That rationale doesn’t help much in a hyper-litigious era. So Commissioner Roger Goodell ruled recently that no player suffering a concussion will be permitted to return to action. Players are also under increasing pressure to sit out the game after their injury.

“Once removed for the duration of a practice or game,” Goodell’s memo reads, “the player should not be considered for return-to-football activities until he is fully asymptotic, both at rest and after exertion, has a normal neurological examination, normal neuropsychological testing, and has been cleared to return by both his team physician(s) and the independent neurological consultant.”

The conundrum football faces in this health-conscious age cuts to the very nature of the sport: How do you remove violent impacts from a sport of violent impacts? With better helmets? Tougher penalties? Stricter medical policies?

So far, none of those options has done much to quell the epidemic. Baseball, if it wanted to, could merely legislate away its most violent aspect, beanballs. Basketball has been successful policing stray elbows and in-the-lane muggings.

Hockey is probably closest to football among the four major sports in its proclivity for head-jarring hits, but on the ice they don’t take place nearly as regularly.

All that the NFL knows at this early stage of what is becoming, for the league anyway, an increasingly unpleasant topic, is that something must be done.

In addition to Goodell’s new edict, a Player Advisory Forum, headed by Tony Dungy, was formed. Its purpose is to get input on hot-button issues from players around the league and feed it to Commissioner Roger Goodell.

It already has asked helmet manufacturers to come up with a safer design. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. “Players continue to be an invaluable resource in providing direction and insight into a wide range of programs and policies,” the commissioner said in the release announcing the formation of the committee. “Tony’s experience and expertise in working with players makes him an ideal leader.”

The committee almost certainly will discover what a recent survey by the University of Michigan’s Institute of Social Research found. That study revealed that 6.1 percent of the players responding were suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, dementia or some other memory disorder. That’s five times the national average for men their age.

The numbers were even worse for younger NFL alumni. Those between 30 and 49 reported suffering from those infirmities at a rate 19 times the American average.

A subsequent Associated Press survey of 160 current NFL players revealed that half had suffered serious head injuries—and that many had hidden that fact from their teams.

Much of the blame, of course, can be attributed to the peculiar physics of football. Large, physically gifted linebackers and defensive backs hurl themselves like missiles at each other. Helmets, designed to protect, often become dangerous projectiles as players ram them into backs, pelvises and occasionally other heads.

Less noticeable, but equally insidious, even-larger linemen regularly butt heads in the steel-cage battles of the pits.

And running backs and receivers diving for extra yards frequently get kneed in the head—as Westbrook did—by onrushing defenders. Not surprisingly, these repetitive convulsive acts can have a dangerous cumulative effect.

According to a recent New Yorker magazine article, researchers believe the majority of these stricken former players have a neurological disorder called CTE (Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy), the result of repeated brain trauma.

Autopsies uncovered various degrees of CTE, the magazine said, in the brains of Steelers Hall of Fame center Mike Webster, who was a homeless recluse when he died; Andre Waters, the hard-hitting Eagles safety who, severely depressed, killed himself with a bullet to the head, and Justin Strzelczyk, the one time Steelers lineman who died when he drove his car the wrong way on a freeway and slammed into a truck at 90 mph.

If football players retired after their first serious head injury, experts contend they’d likely experience fewer problems later in life. But, unfortunately, there wouldn’t be many players left to form a league.

Virtually every NFL player, at some point in his career, has been knocked unconscious during a game or practice. Far too many don’t reveal the depth of their problem because they fear losing their position. Dungy, for example, told a radio interviewer that he had done exactly that. And after Westbrook suffered a concussion earlier in the season, he sat out two games, returned, and was concussed again.

The New York Times reported that Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu had suffered six documented concussions since high school. The total was three for Steelers QB Ben Roethligsberger, who missed a game recently after being knocked out.

How many will end up like former Steelers Webster and Strzelczyk?

“It’s not that you’ve just lost cognitive skills,” Douglas H. Smith, a professor of Neurology at the University of Pennsylvania’s Center for Brian Injury and Repair, told The Philadelphia Inquirer , “but you’ve also increased the chances of having a worse problem later in life.” Right now, the NFL can’t think of a worse problem.

 

Owner Collegiate Living  and Sports Buzz

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Jeremy Bates Should Become the Chicago Bears New Offensive Coordinator

Some of you Bears fans might be asking who is Jeremy Bates? Why wouldn’t we just hire Mike Martz or Charlie Weis?

Let me introduce Jeremy Bates. He is the 33-year-old son of the recently fired Bucs defensive coordinator, Jim Bates.

Jeremy began his coaching career with the Bucs in 2002 as the offensive quality control coach (The same season the Bucs won the Super Bowl.). He spent two additional seasons in Tampa and then spent one year with the Jets as the quarterbacks coach.

From 2006-2008, he was the quarterbacks coach for the Denver Broncos with the Chicago Bears current quarterback Jay Cutler.

This offseason Jeremy bolted for USC to be the assistant head coach/quarterbacks coach.

Jeremy knows football. He knows quarterbacks and most importantly, he knows Jay Cutler.

Jay Cutler trusts this guy a lot and that is a good thing to have between your quarterback and your offensive coordinator.

Cutler said this upon hearing Bates was heading to the college ranks last January:

“Jeremy is one of the best offensive minds in football. He was extremely innovative with our offense and took our playbook to the next level with some of the things he did, keeping defenses off balance and changing our look but at the same time keeping it simple for us players. Some of the things he did were amazing to watch. He was always watching other teams and coming up with new ideas for our offense.”

“He helped me grow into my third NFL season and helped me reach the Pro Bowl along with some of the other goals I set for myself. As a unit, our offense became one of the most productive in the league with Jeremy calling plays. He brought a lot of excitement to the meeting room and on the field.”

“He made me want to come to work every day and get better. Jeremy will do great things in his new role, and USC couldn’t have picked a better guy.”

If the Bears decide to hire Jeremy Bates as their new offensive coordinator, I would support it because of his strong relationship with the Bears future star, Jay Cutler.

Also, the comparisons to Rex Grossman and Jeff George could come to an end next season if the Bears hire Bates. In 2008, the Denver Broncos’ offense, with Jay Cutler at the helm and Jeremy Bates as his quarterback coach, ranked second overall in the NFL.   The passing game was ranked third and the rushing attack was ranked 12th.

The addition of Bates could already be in the works, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. The Bears have supposedly reached out to Jeremy Bates about succeeding the recently fired offensive coordinator Ron Turner.

By firing Ron Turner who didn’t know how to use Jay Cutler correctly, and the hiring of someone who is smart and capable of working with Jay Cutler, is the greatest idea the Bears could have.

I hope the Bears strike a deal with Jeremy Bates before someone else snags him away. The offense is what’s going to help this team win games not the defense which could improve with some adjustments. Who knows.

Why is Jeremy Bates the answer for the Bears?

Because of his unique relationship with the Bear’s most important piece of the puzzle: Jay Cutler.

all quotes from The LA Times

Jake Perper is the creator of www.BearsBacker.com and also covers the Bears for www.NFLTouchdown.com.

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Wild Card Rematches: Three Reasons the Games Go the Other Way

The 2010 NFL Wild Card Weekend will feature three rematches from Week 17. All three games turned out to be blowouts.

The Jets defeated the Bengals 37-0, the Eagles fell to the Cowboys 24-0, and the Packers took care of the Cardinals 33-7.

The playoffs are a new season, though. Everybody has the same record, 0-0. Here are three reasons why all three teams that got blown out will win this weekend.

1. Andy Reid is 7-0 in opening playoff games. Wade Phillips is 0-4.

Since Andy Reid took over as coach of the Philadelphia Eagles in 1999, they have never lost an opening playoff game.

Rather, they have compiled wins against Tampa Bay (2000, 2001), Atlanta (2002), Green Bay (2003), Minnesota (2004), the New York Giants (2006), and Minnesota (2008).

On the other side, Wade Phillips has yet to win a playoff game.

With the Broncos, he lost to the Raiders (1993). With the Bills, he lost to the Dolphins (1998) and the Titans (1999). Most recently, with his current team the Cowboys, he lost to the Giants (2007).

Look for Reid and McNabb to do what they always do: win their first game of the postseason.

Look for Phillips and Romo to do what they always do: go one-and-done in the playoffs.

2. The Bengals will be at home this time (and actually trying).

The Bengals only lost twice at home this season. One of those losses came in Week 1 on a fluke play when Brandon Stokely, of the Denver Broncos, had a deflected ball fall into his arms in the final seconds of the game.

Among their six home wins are victories over the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

While the Jets compiled an impressive 5-3 road record, it’s not quite as good as it sounds. Their last four road victories came against the Raiders, the Bills, the Buccaneers, and a Colts team that was resting its starters.

It’s never a good sign when the only reason you’re in the playoffs is because the last two teams you played weren’t trying to win. Look for things to be much different this time around.

3 . Kurt Warner > Aaron Rodgers.

In a game featuring two high-octane offenses, a lot depends on which quarterback is able to avoid mistakes.

Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal in his first two years as a starter. He is the first player in NFL history to pass for 4,000 yards in his first two seasons.

But Sunday will be his first playoff game and he’s facing one of the decade’s best quarterbacks. As good as Rodgers has been, it’s still an unknown how he’ll deal with the pressures of the second season.

Arizona’s defense finished with 43 sacks (despite not rushing the passer at all in Week 17), good for sixth in the league. Green Bay finished with a league-leading 50 sacks allowed (despite not having to defend a pass rush in Week 17). 

Translation: Rodgers will be under serious pressure, both figuratively and literally, all game long.

Kurt Warner, on the other hand, will be starting his 12th playoff game with eight playoff victories under his belt. He has played in three Super Bowls (and holds the record for first, second, and third all-time passing yards in a Super Bowl).

Just last year, Warner set NFL records for both passing yards and touchdowns in a postseason.

Look for Warner and that accurate arm of his to shine against the Packer’s banged up secondary.

 

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Cowboys Must Come Through Saturday To Make Last Week’s Win Meaningful.

The Cowboys did a great job on Sunday. With their 24-0 thrashing of the Eagles, they simultaneously broke their nine game season finale losing streak, recorded back-to-back shutouts for the first time ever, and avenged their 44-6 loss to the Philadelphia last season with the playoffs on the line. 

However, all of that means nothing if the Cowboys don’t beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday night.

The Cowboys need to stay focused; they’re a sexy pick in the NFC right now, with the Vikings losing two in a row before beating a defeated Giants team, and the Saints losing their last three games of the season. 

Head coach Wade Phillips has to make sure his team doesn’t caught up in the hype like in years past. He also has to get them ready for a more intense Philly team. Donovan  McNabb called Sunday’s game a “humbling experience” and you can bet they’ll make some changes in game planning and personnel.

However with a short week the Cowboys have an advantage. They were able to stop everything the Eagles were doing on both sides of the ball; that undoubtedly put the ‘Boys ahead of the curve on the game planning for this week.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have to figure out why their plan was unsuccessful and try to develop a different game plan that can penetrate the Cowboys suddenly stifling defense.

Right now the ‘Boys are saying all the right things about Saturday’s game. Wide receiver Roy Williams wants to make an impact after not recording a catch in last week’s game.

“The big plays are still going to be there,” Williams said. “I just have to be ready when it comes.”

Linebacker Keith Brooking has the defense preparing for the rematch; “I know what this locker room’s about and you’re gonna get our best shot this week…we’ve got some guys that have been in some big time games and it starts to pay huge dividends for you when you get in these big time players when you have smart players that are very talented.”

For the Cowboys to snap their 13-year playoff winless streak they’ll need to come out and play better than they did last week.

The Eagles are going to come out hungry. What’s more, in the Andy Reid era they’ve never lost in the first round of the playoffs—so they know how to prepare themselves.

For the ‘Boys this is it; this is the year they have no excuses. It’s just win, there is nothing else.

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Cardinals Know Only Their A+ Game Will Beat Green Bay

The Arizona Cardinals and their fans are having a giggly little laugh over the Packers 33-7 win at Arizona Sunday. They are telling themselves that Green Bay did it mostly against their backups, and for the majority of that game the Cardinals didn’t really care.

And those people aren’t far from the truth. But I’m sure Ken Whisenhunt and the Cardinal players are not laughing at some of what took place Sunday.

Almost all of the starters for the Cardinals played the first quarter on Sunday, including Kurt Warner. The score at the end of the first quarter, you ask?

14-0 Green Bay.

Now, one could easily say that even the Cardinals starters didn’t really care about the game, which may be a valid point.

But, one could also say that maybe, just maybe, the Cardinals No. 25 ranked defense doesn’t have enough juice to slow down the Packers offense.

The Cardinals are well aware that their offense better play their best to score some points on the Packers No. 2 ranked defense, and they are well aware that their defense will have to play out of their gourd to hold down the Packers offense enough.

I keep getting told to remember last year. The Cardinals weren’t playing well heading into the playoffs, and look where they went. Well, if every star aligns just right in the sky for a second straight year, so be it.

But how often does that happen?

Many fans’ hate affair with the Packers may have to continue for at least one more week. The Vikings started 7-1, and were Super Bowl favorites, and deserved to be. The Packers went 7-1 in their last 8 games against similar teams and lost to the same team, but still aren’t that good. 

Something has to give, and only time will tell us what it will be.  

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2009 NFL Playoffs: WhatIfSports.com’s Wild Card Preview

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, are located here.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see our season-to-date performance, click here.

 

Wild Card Games

Four wild card games, three Week 17 rematches.

With the NFL playoffs beginning this weekend, Arizona and Green Bay, Dallas and Philadelphia, and Cincinnati and the New York Jets will all be squaring off for the second consecutive week.

Does the computer see rematch repeats?

In a word, yes.

 

Philadelphia at Dallas

Quarterback Tony Romo threw for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns, Dallas’ defense allowed less than 40 yards rushing and the Cowboys clinched a home-field rematch against the Eagles with a 24-0 victory in Week 17. Now they’ll try to beat Philadelphia for the third time this season and a second time in as many weeks in the first round of the playoffs.

Philadelphia boasts the fifth-best scoring offense in the league at 26.8 points per game but has scored a total of 16 against the Cowboys this season, as Dallas’ defense has stymied Donovan McNabb and big-play wide receiver DeSean Jackson.

Dallas’ offense, on the other hand, ranks in the top 10 in nearly every major statistic except for points, but the Cowboys had two of their best games against the Eagles. Two of Romo’s eight 300-yard games came against Philadelphia, and the Cowboys average more than eight yards per pass attempt.

In the first of three Week 17 rematches, the computer begins the trend of liking last week’s winner. Romo’s numbers certainly don’t stand out, but the Cowboys once again make the Eagles one-dimensional, beating the Eagles 63 percent of the time, by an average score of 23-16.

 

Baltimore at New England

The only wild card game that isn’t a rematch from last week is a rematch of a Week Four thriller that saw the Patriots beat the Ravens, 27-21. That meeting left both teams 3-1 and provided an exciting quarterback battle that might have gone the other way had Derrick Mason not dropped a pass that would have led to a fourth-down conversion.

Joe Flacco threw for 264 yards but needed nearly 50 attempts to get there, numbers indicative of Baltimore’s mark of 7.1 yards per completion. Ray Rice eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground in just 11 carries, a number that helped bolster an impressive rushing mark of nearly five yards per carry. The Ravens will likely have to use that ground game against a defense that gives up just 7.0 yards per pass attempt.

The Patriots boast one of the NFL’s best passing offenses but lost a key cog in the final week when receiver Wes Welker went down with a knee injury. Quarterback Tom Brady threw for just 258 yards and one touchdown in the Week Four win, but he also ran for another. Now he’ll have to try and tame the Ravens with a depleted receiving corps and most likely not a ton of help on the ground against one of the league’s best run defenses.

Behind the strong play of that defense—they limit New England to just 3.6 yards per carry and do their best to slow Brady down in the average projections—the visiting Ravens get the best of the Patriots to move on in the AFC playoffs 59.1 percent of the time, pulling off a two-point upset on average.

 

Green Bay at Arizona

Like the Cowboys against the Eagles, the Packers throttled the Cardinals just this past week only to set up a rematch in the exact same venue. Behind yet another efficient day from quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Rod Woodson’s career-high ninth interception of the season—one of three picks on the day by the Packers—Green Bay rolled to a 33-7 victory.

Rodgers quietly put together an impressive season despite early season sack woes. He finished with a passer rating over 100 and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt. Running back Ryan Grant also rebounded with a decent season, though Green Bay averaged just 4.3 yards per carry. The Packers will have to maintain that balance against a defense that certainly doesn’t look flashy in terms of yards per game but looks much better in terms of yards per carry and per pass attempt.

The Cardinals threw three more interceptions last week, finishing with a minus-7 turnover margin that looks daunting compared to Green Bay’s league-best plus-24 margin. Running backs Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower complement each other well, but neither averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry and Kurt Warner averaged just 7.3 yards per pass attempt. All of these numbers should spell trouble against one of the league’s top overall defenses.

And it does, according to the computer. Behind a big day from Ryan Grant, who scores in nearly every one of 10,001 simulations and another efficient day from Rodgers, the Packers top the Cardinals for the second straight week. Green Bay wins 65.2 percent of the time, 26-22.

 

New York Jets at Cincinnati

This one may feel a little bit different but winds up with the same outcome in the computers’ view.

Many believed the New York Jets backed their way into the playoffs against the backup units of Indianapolis and Cincinnati, the latter of which allowed the Jets’ starters to run all over the place to the tune of 257 yards on the ground in a 37-0 thrashing. Now the teams will head back to Cincinnati for the rematch.

The Bengals more or less rode running back Cedric Benson all the way to the playoffs, but while Benson helped produce one of the top rushing offenses in yards per game, he averaged just 4.2 yards per carry.

Quarterback Carson Palmer’s numbers are equally mediocre as he averages just 6.6 yards per carry. None of that bodes well for an offense perhaps facing the toughest defense in the league, as the Jets give up less than four yards per carry and just over five yards per pass attempt.

The Jets’ offensive numbers aren’t that much more impressive, but they have used a handful of running backs to maintain a 4.5 yards-per-carry average. They’ve basically been successful when rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez takes care of the ball and he should be OK there as the Bengals produced an even turnover margin. And the game could rest on his arm, as Cincinnati allows less than four yards per carry.

In the end, New York’s defense is simply too much in the lowest-scoring game of the first round. Neither quarterback produces great numbers but in the end, the Jets rushing attack gets it done more often than the Bengals as New York wins 68 percent of the time, by an average score of 18-14.

 

NFL Wild Card Week
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Philadelphia Eagles	37.0	17	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	63.0	23	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	59.1	23	Boxscore
@ New England Patriots	40.9	21	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	65.2	26	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	34.8	22	Simulate Game
New York Jets	68.0	18	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	32.0	14	Simulate Game

 

WhatIfSports.com is a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, we can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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NFL Playoff Predictions: Wildcard Weekend

After a compelling finish to the NFL season (well, at least in one conference), it is time to evaluate each matchup and make picks.

There are several compelling stories entering this post season:

Both games in the NFC Wildcard are rematches from Week 17, and the Packers and Cowboys blew out the Cardinals and Eagles.

The AFC went down to the wire, with the Steelers and Texans on the outside looking in with 9-7 records.

The Jets started hot, faltered, then finished strong; they too are in a rematch from week 17 with the Bengals.

Tom Brady is denying reports of a broken rib, and will have to find a way to win without favorite target Wes Welker, who tore his ACL and MCL Sunday against Houston.

What will the repercussions be for the Colts and Saints, whose pursuit of perfection were ended and each lost their final two games?

Will Brett Favre go out on top?

Many of these stories will be addressed in the following slideshows, as well as the predictions for each game this weekend.

Be sure to check back in each week for the next round’s predictions!

Begin Slideshow

Is Vince Young Still the Future of the Tennessee Titans?

After two straight weak showings to end the 2009 NFL season, Vince Young has some explaining to do. Or, more importantly, some more doubters to prove wrong.

Young took the league by storm with a sensational rookie season in 2006, when he scored 19 total touchdowns (seven rushing) and guided the Titans to an 8-8 record following a six-game winning streak near the end of the season.

He followed it up with an inconsistent sophomore season from a statistical standpoint, but was still effective in leading the Titans to the playoffs.

Then came the saga that Tennessee and Vince Young followers know all too well, where Young was playing poorly in last season’s opener, asked to sit the remainder of the game, and then sustained a knee injury that eventually knocked him out of the game.

Suicide talk followed, along with an apparent loss of passion and confidence, and Young was shown to the bench of the remainder of the 2008 season, and forced to watch as veteran Kerry Collins led the surprising Titans to a remarkable 10-0 start, and an eventual 13-3 record, as well as a division championship.

However, the football Gods were gracious to Young, giving him one last chance after Collins couldn’t get anything going this season, and an 0-6 start for the Titans had Young right back where he started; with a shot at proving his doubters wrong.

Young responded with some of the best football of his career, as he guided (with a lot of help from Chris Johnson) lead the Titans on an impressive five-game winning streak, until they lost their seventh game of the season by the hands of the then undefeated Indianapolis Colts.

Tennessee’s playoff hopes still remained intact after that game and were only truly destroyed when Young (and the rest of the Titans) had a forgettable game against the much superior San Diego Chargers.

But this isn’t news. We knew Young had a winner’s attitude all along, and judging by his history prior to last season’s benching, he was already having some success at the pro level.

He did more than just win games this time around, however, as he relied more on his pocket passing abilities (which are improving), and his ability to read defenses better.

His improved passing abilities were best exhibited in an impressive performance (huge understatement) against the Arizona Cardinals, in which he led his offense 99 yards down the field in the final minutes and threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Kenny Britt as time expired.

He also ended the game with a career-high 387 yards through the air.

If that wasn’t impressive enough, Young converted three fourth downs on that drive, none of which were done by the use of his legs.

This showed true growth in Young’s ability to take over a game with his arm, making him a more feared quarterback.

Young furthered this notion three games later in a big game with playoff implications against the Miami Dolphins, where he threw for three touchdowns and 236 yards.

The scary thing is, if Tennessee had even won one more game, this could be a completely different article. Young could be in the playoffs, and his story could still be evolving.

But as it stands, Young (who was declared the 2010 starter by Jeff Fisher) will once again have to start from scratch, and prove he belongs in the NFL.

The question remains; does he have what it takes?

From a professional perspective, there really isn’t any question about his ability to lead a football team. He’s led comebacks, both with his feet and his arm, and as the starter, he’s never finished worse than 8-8.

With new weapons such as rookie receiver Kenny Britt and tight end Jared Cook (who should be used more next season), the future looks bright for Young, regardless of his nay-sayers’ nit-picking.

We can’t bypass the progress he and the offense made in the 10 games following the horrid 0-6 start, and any sensible fan of the NFL also can’t ignore his two weak performances to end the 2009 season.

But that’s the story of a young quarterback. Vince Young was a project when he was drafted, and while he’s far from a finished product, he’s made the strides necessary for the team to instill a strong vote of confidence in him.

Has he earned the right to be called Tennessee’s starting quarterback for the 2010 NFL season? There’s no doubt about it.

But has he earned the right to be called their franchise quarterback? Quite literally, only time will tell.

For more NFL news and articles, go here .

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JaMarcus Russell: What Happens In-Ah Screw It! You Know What Was Coming…

So JaMarcus Russell thought he was above the team. He went to Vegas, and missed the team meetings. Well, this is a step in a positive direction. I kinda sorta believe the load of crap (keeping it clean for the children) I just said.

Look, he needs to start acting like a real athlete. A real athlete has to make at least 9.35 million a year. He needs to focus on making headlines consistently. Screw football. He’s not gonna get any better. To keep being in the headlines he’s gonna need to do things like going to Vegas without permission, kissing yourself in the mirror, and going half-naked in a magazine cover.

But there’s a big difference with A-Rod and Tiger.  See, they make headlines without even trying to. That’s when you know you’ve reached the epitome of sports.

So JaMarcus, focus on controversy this offseason. Start off small, like “JaMarcus Russell Changes Last Name”, then go medium “JaMarcus Russell Locks Himself Inside of A Closet” then to downright wrong “JaMarcus Russell Runs 40 Time Without Shirt”.

I believe he can do these things with the right guidance. Good luck, JaMarcus! I hope everything worked out for you and Chuck (just a guess he was there) in Vegas.

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