Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week 17, Falcons at Bucs

And so it comes down to it: One game to validate our season.

One game to prove we really are headed in the right direction. One game to show that new GM Thomas Dimitroff’s personnel moves are good enough to remake an organization. One game to send the team and fans into the offseason with heads held high.

The best chance in recent memory to break the curse of inconsistency that has plagued us and finally string together two winning seasons.

If you think I sound dramatic, you might want to mute the TV tomorrow, and you sure as hell wouldn’t want to hear head coach Mike Smith’s pre-game locker room speech tomorrow.

What said it all to me was Tony Gonzalez’s interview as he was coming off the field at the Jets game two weeks ago. If he still has something to play for this year, then everyone on that team does, too.

The stars are aligning for the Falcons: The opponent is a nobody that we beat earlier with a less healthy and less inspired bunch on our side. Still, going down to Tampa and breaking their streak is not the easiest task the Dirty Birds have had this season.

 

Tampa Bay Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

In my preview of the Week 12 matchup in the Dome, I lamented Cadillac Williams’ lack of production this season. Now that the campaign is more or less done, the numbers I cite are even more telling:

Barring a cataclysmic Atlanta collapse, no Tampa back will finish with even 900 yards on the year; and the man second in yards behind Caddy, highly-touted free agent pickup Derrick Ward, probably isn’t going to touch 500. In other words, this is a one-headed monster on its best days.

Williams was at his most effective last week, when he topped 100 for the first time in ’09 and had his most yards since the opening game. That was against a resting Saints team, though, and not a bunch of inspired Falcons.

Because, see, while the Bay was swooning from their production against the NFC’s best, we weren’t stooping to the level of our competition. We held the Bills to 40 yards on the ground, and that’s with Curtis Lofton notching all of one tackle.

Linebackers taking a back seat like that wasn’t a method that worked so well at the beginning of the season for us, but I’m into what’s smart and what works, and the coaches seem to be, too. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder is favoring packages with a defensive back up in the box for extra support more and more as time goes by, as evidenced by the tackle totals for Brent Grimes (nine) and Erik Coleman (seven) last week.

I could certainly see Williams having a decent game, somewhere along the lines of 80 yards, but he will be limited as long as the Bucs have this offensive line. On the other side, we may not have anything left in the tank, but I have a feeling these fellas will run on fumes if they have to.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. Tampa Bay Rush Defense

Tampa’s ground D has at least been headed in the right direction since I was breaking down the first matchup: They have improved from their last-place spot.

Of course, they’re now only 30th in the league, so take that with a grain of salt. They just rely way too much on one position (linebacker) for this to be a reliable unit at all.

A couple of stats tell the story: First, the top three tacklers for the Bucs are their starting ‘backers. No, I do not expect a lineman to rack up the numbers, and no, I would not be so naive as to evaluate the line’s performance based solely upon their digits, but it’s sad that the top-tackling guy up front (Stylez White, 42) has just about exactly a third of team-leader Barrett Ruud’s 125.

Second, the team’s stoppage is dead last in runs greater than 20 yards, and that right there just about invalidates any of their efforts. After all, you can hold ’em to two or three for three plays per set of downs, but let up one big one, and well, it’s over.

On to our side of the ball, Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling went out and did just what I said they wouldn’t do last week (that’d be a productive two-back attack). That was against an underprepared and downright scared-looking Buffalo D, sure, but it was a confidence-boosting game nonetheless.

Obviously, if we can, we want to keep it on the ground and grind it out. There are too many ballhawks in the T.B. secondary for us to be relying on the pass (but you know I’ll get to that).

Now, I thought Harvey Dahl was going to be back on the line for last week and then was proved a bald-faced liar when Quinn Ojinnaka started; this week I know for a fact that Ojinnaka’s the one out there. This is a downside for us, as Quinn has been extremely penalty-prone to this point, and seems to infect Tyson Clabo with that same problem when he’s out there.

Of course, we got over the century mark running last week and won the game, so what am I complaining about?

 

Tampa Bay Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

On a team full of sorry units, the air game might just be the weakest for the Buccaneers. Of course, if you know who’s starting down there, that doesn’t even need a qualifier, but in case you’ve had your eyes closed for the past three months:

Josh Freeman’s not only a rookie, but one out of Kansas State. What, they play football there?

Still, I’ve never seen a guy do this poorly and keep his job. Not that Tampa has any other real options behind him, but just to give readers a taste, he’s got his team ranked 30th in interceptions, 29th in completion percentage, 29th in passer rating, 28th in first downs per game, and 28th in points to a contest.

Then again, when we saw him before, we had him playing like he did back in his college days: 20-of-29 for 250 yards, 2 TD and no INT.

So who shows up under center for them tomorrow, and just as important, who’s present in our defensive backfield?

Brent Grimes must be reading DDDB , because he’s picking up his play. I don’t think he ever expected to carry the responsibility he has this season, so really, he might just be ahead of the curve. Erik Coleman also looked more like the leader he’s supposed to be against the Bills.

Freeman just can’t be as hot as he was in the Dome, and if VanGorder goes with the containment style and box-stacking he showed last week, we won’t give up many big plays. That’s fine, because stopping Kellen Winslow after the catch is really the goal; what, you thought you were going to disrupt those hands?

But that brings me to another disadvantage for the Bay’s passing game: Winslow is the beginning and end. Note that his 72 receptions are almost double second-place receiver Antonio Bryant’s 37.

The cards are just stacked against poor Freeman.

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. Tampa Bay Pass Defense

Matt Ryan is another week healthier, and considering his performance as he hobbled last week, I’m feeling OK about that.

The receivers have been our rocks all year long, so no worries there (except for Gonzo’s questionable rating, but I have faith). What does make me a little uncomfortable, though, is how the Buccaneer pass defense has gotten better since we played them.

Ronde Barber has the young boys around him playing up to his level, well enough that they’re all in a pack in terms of tackles and have 17 picks among them. Aqib Talib, for all his off-the-field problems and attitude questions, has emerged as a Asante Samuel-lite sort of player, and Sabby Piscitelli does a solid job of acting as enforcer.

Of course, we had Chris Redman throwing on basically every play in the Week 12 matchup, and that still resulted in no interceptions. Sure, his accuracy was piss-poor, but that’s more a symptom of his own problems, not what Tampa’s coverage was doing to him.

My thought process goes a little something like this: If we had Redman chucking the rock with reckless abandon last time, and still managed to not turn the ball over and eventually score enough to get the W, we’re going to be fine this trip with Ice dropping back instead.

I do not underestimate an 11th-ranked Bay pass D, but I focus instead on the facts that we won’t have to throw it nearly as much (41 times for Chris) and that when we do throw it, it’ll be a much more of a sure thing. If all goes well, the balance of running to gunning will even out a bit more, and Matty will only be relied upon entirely when it comes to the red zone.

 

Prediction: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 17

Neither team is going to shoot the lights out. Neither will get an early jump. But I think the Dirty Birds will be in control from start to finish.

The key for me is that our guys know what this game means (for sure they do!) and that they know we’re the better team (here’s hoping they do). Playing away from home (last road game: win over the Jets in chilly NY) and Tampa’s mini-streak cannot be concerns.

Here’s hoping I’m writing a retrospective on what it means to have consecutive plus-.500 seasons later this week.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals Week 17 NFL Picks

The Green Bay Packers travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals in what should be one of the most exciting game Sunday January 3. The Oddsmakers have the Cardinals favored by three points at home and the posted total for this game is 44 points.

This is actually one of the only games on the board for Week 17 that the lines have not moved all week since the books have steady betting action coming in on both sides. You can bet the Packers vs. Cardinals game online at BetUs.com and enjoy a special 100 percent deposit bonus up to $500 so if you deposit $500 you will get $1,000 in your account.

The Packers have really started to play great football in the second half of the season having won six of their last seven games. The Cardinals come into Sunday’s NFL game having won two straight games but against some pretty bad teams (Detroit and St. Louis).

The Packers have thrived offensively averaging 35 points per game over their last three games and they have also averaged 29.9 ppg on the road this season. If you are looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals Week 17 NFL Picks I would definitely take this game to go over the posted total of 44 points.

The Cardinals defense will have to bring their best game into this showdown with the Packers Sunday or it could get out of hand. The Cardinals have played great defensively over their last three games but that was against bad teams so I look for them to struggle today.

The Packers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a road underdog of three points or less. The Cardinals are a perfect 3-0 SU in their last three games played in the month of January.

Check out our experts’ Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals Week 17 NFL Picks and come out on the winning side Sunday.

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Minnesota Vikings On Top of the World or In the Pits of Despair?

The Eagles, however, have more to play for and the momentum of a six game winning streak behind them.

Here’s how I see it:

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Minnesota Vikings On Top of the World or In the Pits of Despair?

The Eagles, however, have more to play for and the momentum of a six game winning streak behind them.

Here’s how I see it:

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Detroit Lions Need to Let Go of the Past and Focus on the Future in 2010

The breakup is over.

It has been over for almost two years.  At some point we need to get off the couch, put down the ice cream and quit feeding our emotions.   The guy wasn’t a knight in shining armor, as was advertised.  He was supposed to take us to the next level.  Instead he used us and left us to wallow in our misery.

Matt Millen just wasn’t that into us.

But now, its time to move on.

It’s time we take off our sweats and start looking like someone who has a purpose.  The only uses of the past is to remember good times and learn from failures.  Well, our recent past has only left us with one option.

What I mean by that is to quit living in the past.

It’s true.  The Detroit Lions are not a good football team.  It’s also true they’re losing at an historic pace.  What is also true, however is there is nothing any one can do about it.  At least not right now.

Matt Millen left this team in terrible shape and to expect a brand new staff to fix it overnight is—to put it plainly—stupid.  The roster is the equivolent of a huge practice squad.  It’s the place players go to get on the field.  It’s a reason all these players were available in free agency and on waivers.  The last time I checked, waived was another word for cut and claiming players off cutters just doesn’t sound right.

The new regime needs time.  If I understand the rules correctly, each team gets a max of ten players per draft.  We all know, ten players will not improve this team enough to satisfy our expectations.  Admit it, even if this team won six games this season, fans would’ve been mad about the other three that could have gotten us in the playoffs.

The 2009 draft class turned out to be pretty solid.  The first overall pick, Matthew Stafford, turned out to be better than advertised.  The unwanted first round pick, Brandon Pettigrew, drew some praise as the season progressed before his injury. 

Second round stud Louis Delmas is a monster and seems to be the anchor of the defense for the future along with third round pick DeAndre Levy, who is making quite a name with his opportunity.  Sammie Hill, a fourth round selection from a D-III school is a starter who playing well after being considered a prospect.

Aaron Brown, drafted in the sixth round, seem to be solid when he is not making mistakes and Zack Follet is a heatseeking, kickoff missile who destroys returners.  The jury is still out on Derrick Williams, Dan Gerberry and Dan Gronkowski.  Williams doesn’t do the one thing he was brought to do well, but the special teams unit as a whole has been unimpressive.  How much of that is his fault?  I’m not sure.

So, Lion’s fans, let us take the first step towards moving forward.  Matt Millen is gone and will not be missed.  In order to move on, we have to forget the damage he caused.  We know the team is not good, but instead lets look at what they do right (quit laughing). 

From here on out, we should turn our attention to the youngsters, at least the healthy ones.  We have one more game.  Considering the turnover about to take place, this is identical to the last preseason game.  We know who will be here long term and who is just auditioning.  Is there a hidden gem? I honestly don’t know, but there’s nothing wrong with a treasure hunt. 

Basically, the constant mentioning of losing is not helping anyone.  Its not helping the coaches, the players or our own psyche.  It’s nothing but a constant reminder of the Millen Era.  We knew the damage was long term, and we still gripe about it.  This is 2010, a whole new decade.  No reason to worry about the old one. 

We’re showing the league that we are finally over Millen, because he was over us in 2002.  It’s about time we catch up.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Detroit Lions Need to Let Go of the Past and Focus on the Future in 2010

The breakup is over.

It has been over for almost two years.  At some point we need to get off the couch, put down the ice cream and quit feeding our emotions.   The guy wasn’t a knight in shining armor, as was advertised.  He was supposed to take us to the next level.  Instead he used us and left us to wallow in our misery.

Matt Millen just wasn’t that into us.

But now, its time to move on.

It’s time we take off our sweats and start looking like someone who has a purpose.  The only uses of the past is to remember good times and learn from failures.  Well, our recent past has only left us with one option.

What I mean by that is to quit living in the past.

It’s true.  The Detroit Lions are not a good football team.  It’s also true they’re losing at an historic pace.  What is also true, however is there is nothing any one can do about it.  At least not right now.

Matt Millen left this team in terrible shape and to expect a brand new staff to fix it overnight is—to put it plainly—stupid.  The roster is the equivolent of a huge practice squad.  It’s the place players go to get on the field.  It’s a reason all these players were available in free agency and on waivers.  The last time I checked, waived was another word for cut and claiming players off cutters just doesn’t sound right.

The new regime needs time.  If I understand the rules correctly, each team gets a max of ten players per draft.  We all know, ten players will not improve this team enough to satisfy our expectations.  Admit it, even if this team won six games this season, fans would’ve been mad about the other three that could have gotten us in the playoffs.

The 2009 draft class turned out to be pretty solid.  The first overall pick, Matthew Stafford, turned out to be better than advertised.  The unwanted first round pick, Brandon Pettigrew, drew some praise as the season progressed before his injury. 

Second round stud Louis Delmas is a monster and seems to be the anchor of the defense for the future along with third round pick DeAndre Levy, who is making quite a name with his opportunity.  Sammie Hill, a fourth round selection from a D-III school is a starter who playing well after being considered a prospect.

Aaron Brown, drafted in the sixth round, seem to be solid when he is not making mistakes and Zack Follet is a heatseeking, kickoff missile who destroys returners.  The jury is still out on Derrick Williams, Dan Gerberry and Dan Gronkowski.  Williams doesn’t do the one thing he was brought to do well, but the special teams unit as a whole has been unimpressive.  How much of that is his fault?  I’m not sure.

So, Lion’s fans, let us take the first step towards moving forward.  Matt Millen is gone and will not be missed.  In order to move on, we have to forget the damage he caused.  We know the team is not good, but instead lets look at what they do right (quit laughing). 

From here on out, we should turn our attention to the youngsters, at least the healthy ones.  We have one more game.  Considering the turnover about to take place, this is identical to the last preseason game.  We know who will be here long term and who is just auditioning.  Is there a hidden gem? I honestly don’t know, but there’s nothing wrong with a treasure hunt. 

Basically, the constant mentioning of losing is not helping anyone.  Its not helping the coaches, the players or our own psyche.  It’s nothing but a constant reminder of the Millen Era.  We knew the damage was long term, and we still gripe about it.  This is 2010, a whole new decade.  No reason to worry about the old one. 

We’re showing the league that we are finally over Millen, because he was over us in 2002.  It’s about time we catch up.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Jacksonville Jaguars-Cleveland Browns: Once More with Feeling

It will be a cold and blustery day in Cleveland, but this is football weather, and the Browns have the advantage over the Florida team.

 

The Jaguars must win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They need a lot of help from other teams, but a loss seals their fate. This should mean this game will be a knockdown, drag-out, slugfest since the Cleveland players are auditioning for jobs next year.

 

The most interesting aspect of this game will be the coaches. Eric Mangini and his merry band of fellows now are twisting in the air, unsure if they’ll still have jobs after today.

 

A failure to make the playoffs on the Jaguar’s part could mean changes on that particular staff as well. Everyone is going to be bringing their “A” game today.

 

My feeling, as of today, on the Brown’s coaching situation is that the future already has been decided and today’s outcome won’t affect that one way or the other. That feeling could change. We’ll see if Mike Holmgren has anything to say after the game.

 

With the renewed emphasis on the running game, look for Jerome Harrison to get a lot of carries again. Conversely, don’t be surprised to see Maurice Jones-Drew scampering for a lot of yards.

 

If the weather is half as bad as it looks, both offensive coordinators would be wise to stay on the ground.

 

For Cleveland, what little success Brian Daboll has had has come with the running game, and he should stick to it. Plus, every time you take the ball out of Derek Anderson’s hands, it’s one fewer interception attempt.

 

Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan really has gotten the best he can out of his last-ranked defensive unit. If they can make one last stand today and shut down the Jaguar’s running attack, it’s one more reason to keep Ryan around next year.

 

Jaguars Defensive Coordinator Mel Tucker used to hold the same title in Cleveland under Romeo Crennel. He knows Cleveland, having also grown up in the city, but more importantly, he knows exactly what his new team is walking into.

 

This game will come down to which defense can hold up better under the conditions and whoever can capitalize on the most mistakes. The Browns turnover ratio is -12 to the Jaguars +2, so the Browns have to protect the ball.

 

In an early January game to be played in arctic conditions, it probably will be a low-scoring affair, but I’ve been wrong before.

 

Jaguars 17, Browns 13

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Jacksonville Jaguars-Cleveland Browns: Once More with Feeling

It will be a cold and blustery day in Cleveland, but this is football weather, and the Browns have the advantage over the Florida team.

 

The Jaguars must win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They need a lot of help from other teams, but a loss seals their fate. This should mean this game will be a knockdown, drag-out, slugfest since the Cleveland players are auditioning for jobs next year.

 

The most interesting aspect of this game will be the coaches. Eric Mangini and his merry band of fellows now are twisting in the air, unsure if they’ll still have jobs after today.

 

A failure to make the playoffs on the Jaguar’s part could mean changes on that particular staff as well. Everyone is going to be bringing their “A” game today.

 

My feeling, as of today, on the Brown’s coaching situation is that the future already has been decided and today’s outcome won’t affect that one way or the other. That feeling could change. We’ll see if Mike Holmgren has anything to say after the game.

 

With the renewed emphasis on the running game, look for Jerome Harrison to get a lot of carries again. Conversely, don’t be surprised to see Maurice Jones-Drew scampering for a lot of yards.

 

If the weather is half as bad as it looks, both offensive coordinators would be wise to stay on the ground.

 

For Cleveland, what little success Brian Daboll has had has come with the running game, and he should stick to it. Plus, every time you take the ball out of Derek Anderson’s hands, it’s one fewer interception attempt.

 

Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan really has gotten the best he can out of his last-ranked defensive unit. If they can make one last stand today and shut down the Jaguar’s running attack, it’s one more reason to keep Ryan around next year.

 

Jaguars Defensive Coordinator Mel Tucker used to hold the same title in Cleveland under Romeo Crennel. He knows Cleveland, having also grown up in the city, but more importantly, he knows exactly what his new team is walking into.

 

This game will come down to which defense can hold up better under the conditions and whoever can capitalize on the most mistakes. The Browns turnover ratio is -12 to the Jaguars +2, so the Browns have to protect the ball.

 

In an early January game to be played in arctic conditions, it probably will be a low-scoring affair, but I’ve been wrong before.

 

Jaguars 17, Browns 13

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New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Week 17 NFL Picks

The almost undefeated Saints travel to Carolina to take on the surging Panthers Sunday January 3 with out Drew Brees and Darren Sharper in the line-up.  The Saints Coach Sean Payton said he will start veteran Mark Brunnel to give their star quarterback Brees much needed rest.

Drew Brees will set a new NFL passing record with a completion percentage of 70.60 percent which was set back in 1982 by Ken Anderson of the Bengals. You can bet the Saints vs. Panthers game online at BetUs.com and enjoy a 100 percent deposit bonus up to $500 so if you deposit $500 you will get $1,000 in your account.

The oddsmakers currently have the Carolina Panthers favored by just seven points after the line opened to favor them by 9 points earlier in the week. The posted total for this game is at 41 points after it opened at 42.5 points last Monday.

Since Drew Brees will not be in this game a lot of people are taking the Panthers to win by seven points Sunday. If you are looking for New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Week 17 NFL Picks I would also take the Panthers to cover the seven points at home.

The Panthers are coming off of back to back dominating wins against the Vikings and Giants. During their two game winning streak the Panthers outscored their opponents 67 to 16 winning by an average of 25.5 points per game.

For the Carolina Panthers this is their Super Bowl game and they will end the season on a high note by dominating a Saints team that is resting their key players. The Panthers have covered the spread in six straight games against a team that has a winning record. Look for the Saints to get their second loss of the season Sunday.

Check out our experts’ New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Week 17 NFL Picks and come out on the winning side Sunday.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Week 17 NFL Picks

The almost undefeated Saints travel to Carolina to take on the surging Panthers Sunday January 3 with out Drew Brees and Darren Sharper in the line-up.  The Saints Coach Sean Payton said he will start veteran Mark Brunnel to give their star quarterback Brees much needed rest.

Drew Brees will set a new NFL passing record with a completion percentage of 70.60 percent which was set back in 1982 by Ken Anderson of the Bengals. You can bet the Saints vs. Panthers game online at BetUs.com and enjoy a 100 percent deposit bonus up to $500 so if you deposit $500 you will get $1,000 in your account.

The oddsmakers currently have the Carolina Panthers favored by just seven points after the line opened to favor them by 9 points earlier in the week. The posted total for this game is at 41 points after it opened at 42.5 points last Monday.

Since Drew Brees will not be in this game a lot of people are taking the Panthers to win by seven points Sunday. If you are looking for New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Week 17 NFL Picks I would also take the Panthers to cover the seven points at home.

The Panthers are coming off of back to back dominating wins against the Vikings and Giants. During their two game winning streak the Panthers outscored their opponents 67 to 16 winning by an average of 25.5 points per game.

For the Carolina Panthers this is their Super Bowl game and they will end the season on a high note by dominating a Saints team that is resting their key players. The Panthers have covered the spread in six straight games against a team that has a winning record. Look for the Saints to get their second loss of the season Sunday.

Check out our experts’ New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Week 17 NFL Picks and come out on the winning side Sunday.

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